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More banks
expected Change of
guard in Japan |
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Realty
vs reality
Pak
strategy in Afghanistan
Another
doomsday!
Handling
attacks on women
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Change of guard in Japan
Mr
Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a former Prime Minister of Japan, has emerged as the new head of government after Sunday’s elections there. The LDP won 294 seats in the 480-member Lower House of the Japanese parliament and its ally, the New Komeito Party, got 31 seats. The new ruling alliance, with a two-thirds majority in the country’s parliament, will be in a position to prevent any move in the Lower House that goes against the LDP or the government. Mr Abe promised during his election campaign that if his party succeeded in forming its government in Tokyo it would go in for a massive public spending to bring about a new dynamism in the economy. How he does it may be clear after he forms his Cabinet on December 26. Mr Abe also has a plan to give a new look to Japan’s Asia policy with India and China being the key elements. He has declared that he will do all that can be possible to improve Japan’s strategic relations with China without, of course, compromising his country’s control over the tiny islands claimed by China as part of its territory. But Japan’s relations with India are more important than its ties with China in Mr Abe’s scheme of things. He has a new vision for Indo-Japanese ties which he had outlined in his speech in the Central Hall of India’s Parliament during his state visit in August 2007. He, however, could do very little to translate his ideas into a reality because of unfavourable developments at home. Now Mr Abe has got another opportunity to implement what he calls his “broader Asia” policy. Japan’s growing interest in India has a background. China, which has replaced Japan as the world’s second biggest economy, has become very assertive in regional matters, causing uneasiness in entire East Asia, including the member-countries of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Developing close relations with India will further strengthen the Japanese economy with the possibility of altering the power balance in Asia. |
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Realty vs reality
The
Punjab Government has embarked upon another ambitious venture that on the face of it can be called a real-estate project. A 600-acre IT City is to be developed in Mohali at an estimated cost of Rs 1,800 crore. In a state as small as Punjab — but with astronomical land prices — the figures set off an immediate buzz, which somewhat overshadows the core of the proposal, i.e., promoting information technology-based industry and trade. The government will have to go out of its way to make sure everything looks above board. All concessions it offers to invite big brands should be announced upfront to all. Negotiations with individual firms always leave a bad aftertaste, a la Chandigarh IT Park. Internationally, transparency is considered a major attraction for business. The timing of the launch, given the state of the global economy, is another matter of concern. To make the venture viable, thus, more than just IT will have to be promoted, such as residential, health, community and commercial areas. That is where the trouble begins. To make it look more than another real estate project — unlike Aerocity or New Chandigarh, all in the vicinity of Chandigarh — keeping the focus will have to be essential, as Punjab has yet to earn a reputation for being an industry-friendly state. Thus far there is no example of a successful industrial zone development ab initio. Mohali once showed promise and then lost it for various reasons. IT is an industry that is more people-intensive than land or investment. It is thus a good choice for a state where land prices are high. However, these are high-worth workers, who have their own requirements from a place where they live and work. That Bangalore and Hyderabad were great IT successes is not a coincidence. Mohali will have to back up its IT City with reliable infrastructure — power, water, public hygiene — a responsive administration, and unfailing law and order. And evidence of all this will have to be there before the trickle-in begins. |
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The first recipe for happiness is: avoid too lengthy meditation on the past. |
Pak strategy in Afghanistan ON December 6, Asadullah Khalid, Head of Afghanistan’s intelligence set-up, the National Directorate of Security, was seriously injured in a bomb attack by a Taliban suicide bomber posing as a peace envoy. President Karzai announced the next day that the suicide bomber had come from Pakistan. While not directly naming the ISI, President Karzai described the suicide bombing as a “very sophisticated and complicated act by a professional intelligence service”. Asadullah Khalid is one of President Karzai’s closest aides and has held crucial gubernatorial appointments in Ghazni and Kandahar. He had escaped Taliban assassination attempts in 2007 and 2011. He was playing a crucial role in attempts to wean away Pashtun tribal support from the Taliban, as the American “end game” in Afghanistan picks up momentum. Asadullah Khalid is seen as a dangerous adversary in Pakistan. Unlike his Tajik predecessor, Amrollah Saleh, against whom the ISI could whip up Pashtun nationalistic sentiments, he is a blue-blooded Pashtun, who can better deal with Pakistani machinations, which seek to unite Pashtuns under the tutelage of the Mullah Omar-led Quetta Shura and their protégés in the North Waziristan-based Haqqani network. In its quest for “strategic depth,” the Pakistan military establishment has based its entire political strategy on pretending to champion the cause of Pashtuns, who constitute 40 per cent of Afghanistan’s population, with the Tajiks constituting 33 per cent of the population and the Shia Hazaras and Uzbeks comprising 11 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively. Interestingly, the language which unites Afghanistan is not Pashtu, which is spoken by 35 per cent of the population and almost exclusively by Pashtuns, but Dari, spoken by 50 per cent of the country’s people. Within the Pashtuns, the ruling class has predominantly been drawn from the landowning Durrani clan. Apart from Nur Mohammed Tarraki and his Soviet-backed successors, the only non-Durrani leader of Afghanistan from the influential Ghilzai clan was Mullah Omar. Two-thirds of all Pashtuns belong to the Durrani-Ghilzai confederacy. The Taliban, though led by a Ghilzai, have drawn in a large number of Durrani fighters. In addition, they enjoy the backing of the Haqqani network, led by Jalaluddin Haqqani, operating out of the tribal belt of Pakistan in North Waziristan. The Haqqani network also exercises predominant control over the bordering Afghan provinces Khost — Paktia and Paktika. Pakistan’s strategy is to pretend that it supports an “Afghan-led” process of national reconciliation while ensuring that the Quetta Shura and the Haqqani network, which has strong ties with Al-Qaeda and international Islamist causes, negotiate from a position of strength, so that Southern Afghanistan initially, and thereafter the entire Pashtun belt, come under the control of its “strategic assets”. This would be a prelude to the Taliban obtaining a dominant role across the entire country. It is primarily in pursuit of this objective that the senior-most Taliban leader from the Durrani tribe, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, has been incarcerated and kept incommunicado in Pakistan. Mullah Baradar, like Karzai, hails from the Popalzai tribe of Durrani Pashtuns and was known to be close to and in touch with President Karzai. While championing the cause of Pashtuns, Pakistan will not permit any Pashtun leader to undermine its larger ambitions. Pakistan has its own Achilles’ heel. Firstly, no Pashtun worth his salt recognises the Durand Line. Moreover, after the Pakistan army’s assault on the Lal Masjid in 2007, the Tehriq-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has made common cause with other jihadi outfits in Pakistan to challenge the writ of the Pakistan army and the Pakistan state. Unable to directly take on the TTP, the Pakistan army is fomenting tribal animosities between the Mehsud and Waziri tribes in South Waziristan. It is also clear that should a government led by either Imran Khan’s Tehriq-e-Insaf or Nawaz Sharif’s PML (N) assume office after the 2013 elections in Pakistan, one can write off any prospect of the Pakistan army taking action whatsoever against the Haqqani network or other Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, as the American drawdown in Afghanistan proceeds. Chinese officials were among the only non-Muslims to meet Mullah Omar in Kandahar in the 1990s, promising him diplomatic recognition and telecom projects. China has maintained contacts with the Quetta Shura in the aftermath of Operation Enduring Freedom. These contacts, with Pakistani facilitation, have reportedly been increasing. Thus, while the Chinese may have misgivings and concerns about a possible return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan, they appear to believe that their interests in Afghanistan would be protected by Pakistan. In these circumstances, there are now concerns that if not properly equipped, motivated and backed, the Afghan National Army (ANA) could well lose control of the entire Pashtun belt in the country. This could have serious consequences for the very unity of Afghanistan. It is significant that influential Afghan leaders like Mohammed Atta and Ismail Khan are preparing the ground to be able to defend areas they control, in the event of the ANA being unable to effectively deal with the Taliban challenge. There should also be no doubt that the primary objective of the Taliban would be to seize control of Kandahar because of its importance in Pashtun minds as the traditional and spiritual capital of the country. There would also be efforts by the Taliban to block the line of communications from Khyber to Jalalabad. India would have to work closely with foreign partners, including the US, its NATO allies, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia to ensure that the international community remains on course to back the elected government in Afghanistan, economically and militarily. While India has already provided Afghanistan with substantial economic assistance and is preparing the ground for large-scale investments in areas like iron ore, coal, steel, copper and gold, the military cooperation envisaged in its strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan remains relatively modest. Indian military analysts, with expertise on Afghanistan’s armed forces, note that in order to ensure that the ANA can stand up to challenges from across the Durand Line, India should readily supply 105 mm Mountain Artillery, armoured personnel carriers, Vijayanta Tanks, apart from transportation, demining and communications equipment. It remains to be seen whether an establishment wedded to its “Aman Ki Asha” illusions will act decisively on major security challenges emerging in our neighbourhood. Equally importantly, India and its partner-states need to recognise that given Pashtun sentiments and historic realities, we should agree that the Durand Line is a “disputed boundary” between Pakistan and Afghanistan, while expressing the hope that the dispute will be resolved peacefully, keeping in view the Pashtun
sentiments.
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Another doomsday! Recently
I watched a film, “Oh My God”, that satirises religious beliefs. Based on a Gujarati play, "Kanji Virudh Kanji" or an Australian film "The Man who sued God", the film mocked at us for our unending superstitions. I thought that doomsayers were confined only to our land till I received a panic call from my cousin settled in London who said the end of the world was near as the Mayan calendar that begun in 3114 BC comes to an abrupt halt on December 21, 2012. The Mayas had developed an advanced society that featured large cities built around stepped pyramids and they excelled in mathematics and astronomy. The calendar-obsessed Mayas, with their incredibly accurate calculations without the help of calculators, computers or telescopes, were able to determine the length of a lunar month to be 29.53020 days. The actual length is 29.53059 days. The precise manner of rumour predicts a catastrophic celestial collision between the earth and the mythical planet, Nibiru. He continued that panic-buying of candles and essentials had been reported in many parts of the world with an explosion in the sales of survival shelters. Some believers were preparing to converge on a mountain where they believe aliens will rescue them. And they are not alone. A poll by Ipsos, a global market research company with worldwide headquarters in Paris, recently found that one in seven persons believes the world will end during their lifetime. The same poll suggests that one in 10 people experienced fear and anxiety about the eschatological implications of Friday. To no one's surprise, fans of Nostradamus, considered as "The man who saw tomorrow", have also jumped on the 2012 band wagon. The US space agency, NASA, itself has waged a campaign of facts to combat fear-mongering, debunking the doomsday theories. The space agency has published detailed rebuttals of five separate a pocalyptic scenarios on its website, including a meteor strike, a solar flare-up and the so-called polar shift saying that magnetic reversals do take place approximately every 400,000 years but these do not cause any harm to life on the earth. Also any magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia. That night I could not sleep, wondering why such rumours erupt time and again. Earlier the end of the world was predicted on May 21, 2011. And I found the answer in my dreams that since the beginning of human history, people have yearned for a world of peace, righteousness and justice. Time and time again they have placed their hopes in politicians who have promised them the moon, and time and time again their hopes have been dashed. I realised that if such rumours work in the direction of bringing some morality among people, propelling them to shed corrupt ways, stop crime against fellow human beings to become good citizens, then even these rumours should be welcomed. Shakespeare rightly said in “Measure for Measure” that "virtue is bold and goodness never fearful". Let us learn to love as only love can bridge the gulf between nations, between man and man and between man and nature, and shed all
fears.
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Handling attacks on women
The nationwide outrage over the violence on a hapless physiotherapist in Delhi is quite natural and understandable. Every rape is a slap on the face of those elected to rule. However, there is no place for either sentiment or excesses in response
How
can a woman who has not only been violated but also physically assaulted all over her body lead a normal life for the rest of her life? This is especially in a country where there is abominable hypocrisy over the status of a woman. Criminal justice attitudes are governed somewhat by condescension over the female of the species. It is not as if some unlettered policemen alone are guilty of this. A few in the judiciary as well have occasionally slipped up; as for instance, one High Court Judge recently remarked how a lawyer -- a single woman -- could speak with any credibility about a matrimonial dispute before the Bench. What irritates many citizens is the plethora of platitudes and some gratuitous remarks generated by an incident of the kind reported from Delhi. There is also the unabashed attempt whenever there is a brutal crime against a woman to play to the gallery. This tends to mask the obvious governance failure. Every rape is a slap on the face of those elected to rule. However, there is no place for either sentiment or excesses in response. If at all we can bring about an improvement in an already bad situation and restore public confidence in the government’s ability to protect women, we need a balance in our perspective. Just as shouting is no argument and will not prevail in a sensitive matter before a court, war cries are not going to deter the potential rapist who is lurking in the corner waiting for his prey.
Tougher punishment? We have never seen in recorded history harshness in penalty alone stopping the criminal. The impact of a sentence is ephemeral. This is why I believe that the mindless demand for the death sentence to a rapist will not touch even the fringe of the problem. In this sense homicides and rapes are analogous. A majority of such offences are caused by an animal impulse that sees no reason but craves for instant gratification for lust or vengeance. We saw this in Punjab recently when an Akali leader killed a policeman trying to protect his daughter from the rapacious politician. Who could have prevented such an atrocity, although the incident showed a certain lack of fear for the law? There are two other arguments against rushing to alter India’s criminal law. The trend all over the world is one of moving away from the capital sentence. We cannot swim against the tide. If we are not being discussed in adverse terms by the rest of the world -- even after the clandestine manner in which we executed Ajmal Kasab -- it is because of the commendable moderation and restraint that the judiciary led by an enlightened apex court has exercised in awarding the death sentence. Finally, those who are making the strident demand for the death sentence to rapists do not understand the fundamentals of our criminal jurisprudence. Such a penalty pushes up the standard of proof required to convict the accused. What will be demanded by trial judges and those above is conclusive proof that suggests not even an iota of doubt about the culpability of the person charged. When this is the case there is the peril that many more rapists could go scot free if we are to opt for capital punishment for rapists. This is the real nightmare to many of us trying to lock up all offenders guilty of what, apart from murders, is the most heinous of crimes known to humanity. An accompanying feature of the scene is the depressing number of prosecution failures in courts. More than anything else, this is what has drawn the most critical comment from many dispassionate observers as well as victim families. Ultimately cold logic reduces the debate to one of how to successfully establish guilt under the existing sentencing guidelines rather than seeking to enhance current penalties. The police record here is appalling and shameful.
Shoddy investigation Why do rape cases fail so often to persuade the trial judge? Shoddy investigation is no doubt a major factor. This is not peculiar to rapes alone. All over the country criminal investigation is in a shambles, with utter venality triumphing over the need for justice. The ease with which witnesses (including the victim) are either intimidated or bought over is one major reason for acquittals. This situation is especially true in the rural areas, where the registration of a rape case is ridden with uncertainty. This brings up the point of a qualitative difference between rapes reported from villages and urban centres. The rural aggressor -- usually from the upper castes -- has invariably huge resources at his disposal to compromise the investigating officer. The situation is slightly better in urban centres where intense media attention makes suppression of an occurrence difficult. This is why strengthening the rural police is an immediate imperative. The State Intelligence should be accountable for bringing to light deliberate police suppression of rapes or sabotage of rape investigation. Within the police there is a certain reluctance to handle cases of rape because the process demands hard work and perseverance. This should be viewed against the backdrop of the hard fact that there are no great incentives to field officers in pursuing a career in investigation. The one partial solution is to entrust all rape cases to a central unit at the State Police Headquarters that is manned by officers of proven integrity and professionalism. Such an apparatus will be supervised by a senior officer who reports directly to the DGP. This is a near equivalent of the CID, except that, unlike the latter, the new cell will pursue only crimes against women without any major distraction. I know that a similar experiment is in place in a few States in some form or the other. There is now a case for having it in all States. This will not ensure a 100 per cent conviction rate. But it would certainly bring about a better quality of investigation and prosecution, with its accompanying impact on court proceedings.
Overburdened courts All this will not help without a corresponding desire on the part of the lower judiciary to change its ways of conducting proceedings which breed sloth and corruption. Courts are no doubt overburdened. But then they alone are not the sufferers from this evil of a pointless routine, a legacy of the colonial rule. An enterprising and dedicated judge always organises his court in such a manner that he does not play into the hands of a dishonest prosecutor or a cantankerous defence lawyer, both of whom are the principal villains in an archaic system. It is here that Fast Track Courts assume certain value. We cannot have such courts for every form of crime. The need is to prioritise some offences like rape which cry for justice in an unequal society. The few such courts already in vogue have produced remarkable results. I know of a Rajasthan case of rape of a foreigner a few years ago which concluded within weeks. This practice of having exclusive courts for rapes and similar heinous attacks on women is worthy of expansion in all States. A lot will depend ultimately on the message that the apex court sends down the line. No sensible government will ever spurn spending more resources on combating a social evil that is nearly going out of control. The Delhi incident should act as a catalyst for more action and fewer
words.
The writer is a former Director of the CBI
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What the law says The
word rape is legally defined under section 375 of the Indian Penal Code, 1860. It defines the rape as sexual intercourse with a woman without her consent or an attempt to do so will amount to rape. So, an unruptured hymen of a woman does not prove that rape has not been committed. There are exceptions to this definition. When a man does sexual intercourse with his wife who is above 16 even without her consent, it is not rape. In 1983 an amendment was made and section 376(2) i.e. custodial rape, section 376(A) i.e. marital rape and section 376(B to D) i.e. sexual intercourse not amounting to rape were added. Under section 228A of the IPC no person can disclose the name of the rape victim and if done so, he/she shall be punished with a term which may extend to two years and also a fine. Under section 114-A of the Indian Evidence Act, presumption can be made as to the absence of consent in certain prosecutions for rape. Under section 53(1) of the CrPC when a person is arrested for sexual assault, there are reasonable grounds for believing that an examination of his person by a registered medical practitioner, acting at the request of a police officer not below the rank of sub-inspector, is lawful. Under section 327(2) of the CrPC there should be in-camera trial for all rape victims. Before 1983 Section 376 of the IPC provided for a maximum sentence of life imprisonment for rape but there was no minimum limit. Thus, in theory a rapist could get away with a sentence of say, just one month. In 1983, after the Vishakha case, a minimum sentence of seven years' imprisonment was prescribed. Within the laws there are some inherent biases. According to Section 155 (4) of the Indian Evidence Act, "When a man is prosecuted for rape or an attempt to ravish, it may be shown that the victim was of generally immoral character." Section 54 of the Act says, "In criminal proceedings (including rape) the fact that the accused person has a bad character is irrelevant, unless evidence has been given (by him) that he has a good character, in which case it becomes relevant." |
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