The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

assembly elections
Race now for the Delhi crown
The President has agreed to the dissolution of the Delhi State Legislative Assembly, paving the way for fresh polls. While the BJP is hoping to return to power in the state after 16 years, AAP is keen to put up a tough fight, as Cong banks on Sheila’s work.

It is election time again in Delhi. After President Pranab Mukherjee gave his consent earlier in the week for dissolving the Delhi State Legislative Assembly, the three main parties in the fray—the BJP, AAP and the Congress—got down to looking at their prospects again in the national Capital where elections could be held early next year or anytime before February 17, 2015, when the President’s rule comes to an end.

A notification issued by the Home Ministry said the President dissolved the “Legislative Assembly of the National Capital Territory of Delhi with immediate effect” on November 4, ending the nine-month suspense prevailing in the Capital and paving the way for fresh elections that will hopefully end the political deadlock after the AAP government fell in February.

The Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier recommended the dissolution of the Assembly following a similar suggestion from Lieutenant Governor of Delhi Najeeb Jung. He had reached the conclusion following an extensive discussion with major parties, all of which expressed their inability to form the government. They all sought fresh elections. As a result, the Election Commission also revoked its notification for the November 25 byelections to three constituencies, which got vacated after BJP MLAs from their won the Lok Sabha elections and moved to Parliament. This will mark the first time in almost a decade that the Assembly elections will be held in a state within such a short span. Bihar had gone to the polls in February 2005 and then in October 2005 under similar circumstances.

The focus was on the BJP, which remained the largest single party in the Delhi State Assembly over its possible move to muster support from first-time AAP MLAs and form a minority government in the Capital. But the recent Assembly poll results in Maharashtra, and particularly in Haryana, that encouraged the BJP to go in for fresh elections.

Besides, Modi and BJP president Amit Shah were also in favour of seeking a fresh mandate rather than trying to cobble together a majority. With its government at the Centre and the party performing very well in Maharashtra and Haryana in the recent Assembly polls, the BJP is confident of getting an absolute majority in Delhi.

Even winning all three seats in the bypolls would not have helped the BJP return to office in the state after 15 years. Three seats—Tughlaqabad, Krishna Nagar and Mehrauli—in the 70-seat Assembly fell vacant after three BJP MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha. For full majority, a party would have needed at least 36 seats, a number none of the parties was able to muster. — Girja Shankar Kaura

Agitation to engagement

AAP’s ‘dharna-based politics’ disappointed its supporters and left them feeling alienated. Tribune photos: Mukesh Aggarwal

Perceptions and equations have changed for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) since it quit after 49 days in power in Delhi and it would be difficult for its chief, Arvind Kejriwal, to sell again the dream that won him 28 seats in the 2013 elections. The fact that AAP has gone all out to pitch the fresh elections as a face-off between Kejriwal and Jagdish Mukhi (the BJP’s senior most candidate), even after the BJP declared it would contest the polls under collective leadership, proves that AAP wants to avoid Modi entering the campaign in Delhi.

AAP has added more among the ranks of its critics than supporters in the past nine months owing to what has been called its ‘dharna-based politics’. It will have to face the charge of backing down from some of its statements and decisions. Weak political management within the party will also be a handicap. The party is faced with a strongly divided opinion in public, which was not the case in the last elections.

The middle class, which was a major advocate of AAP in 2013, largely distanced itself from the party after Kejriwal took the unusual step of staging a dharna in the heart of the city just before Republic Day, causing inconvenience to the common man. Some of his dedicated followers among the lower-middle class were discouraged later when he quit government as Delhi Chief Minister.

Realisation

Learning from its mistakes, the party is now trying to run a campaign of engagement and communication with the voters, rather than stick to its agitation style of politics. AAP claims it is “fully ready” to take the electoral plunge and will deliver on its promises. It identifies the BJP as its main opponent.

Declaring that it will be an “astounding majority” this time with at least 45 seats in the 70-member House, AAP has decided to contest yet again with its previous poll plank of free water, cheaper electricity, end of corruption, etc. A new agenda to be added is making Delhi a world-class city and the first ‘corruption-free state’ in the country.

However, Modi will remain the biggest challenge for the party. “The BJP has not proved itself since it came to power. Modi promised he will bring down corruption. So far he has not done anything. We did a lot in 49 days. He has been in power for around 200 days already,” Kejriwal says. — Himani Chandel

A matter of prestige & Modi

The BJP wants to fight the Delhi elections under ‘collective leadership’, with focus on brand Modi.

As the BJP has announced to contest in the name of Narendra Modi, it does not want to lose as it will dent the PM’s image, sources say.

The BJP won all elections in the name of Modi, as in the recent elections in Maharashtra and Haryana. The BJP-ruled Central government has created a situation that the Delhi elections should be held after Jharkhand and J&K elections so that the entire leadership can concentrate on Delhi, sources say.

There was a rumour that former Leader of Opposition in the Delhi Legislative Assembly, Prof Jagdish Mukhi, could be the chief ministerial candidate, but this move was dropped considering he could not be a crowed puller and may actually damage the party position. After discussing the issue with senior leaders in a series of meetings, the party decided to contest the Delhi elections in the name of Narendra Modi and achievements of the Central government.

The strategy

Delhi BJP president Satish Upadhyay announced that the party would fight the Delhi Assembly elections under “collective leadership”. “Our MLAs are ready for fresh polls and we will fight under a collective leadership. We will repeat our performance of Haryana and Maharashtra,” he said. The party would fight on the plank of good governance and trust, he added. In the last election held in November 2013, the BJP could win 32 seats, including a seat of its alliance SAD, out of 70 Assembly constituencies. It was lacking four seats to form the government. AAP had won 28 seats and succeeded in forming the government with the outside support of the Congress. The work done during its 49-day rule may be fruitful for AAP in the fresh Assembly election and it can again emerge as a tough competitor, sources say.

After analysing this situation, the BJP leadership has thought that once the Assembly elections in Jharkhand and J&K are over, the entire leadership will concentrate on Delhi, assuring victory for the party. Winning the Delhi election is politically important as the BJP has been out of power in Delhi for the last 16 years. — Syed Ali Ahmed

Stirring development memories

The Congress is seeking to revive its local leadership.

No magic is expected for the Congress, which hopes to recover some of the vast territories it lost in the last Delhi Assembly elections in 2013. The last time the party had underestimated the emergence of AAP, for which it paid heavily getting reduced to eight seats from 42 in 2008. It is at its lowest ebb in the state and will have to bank on the development undertaken by during the three consecutive terms of Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit between 1998 and 2013.

To improve on its single-digit performance the last time, the Congress will have to work hard to hold on to its traditional vote bank of Muslims. Of the eight seats, three — Matial Mahal, Mustafabad and Seelampur — are Muslim dominated areas, where the votes could shift to AAP in view of the Congress’ miserable performance in Haryana and Maharashtra polls recently.

Looking for leaders

The Congress is also struggling for an effective leadership, after Dikshit stepped back from active politics. The former ministers currently at the party’s Pradesh office are unable to appeal to strike a chord with the voters.

Besides re-working the local leadership by bringing in some proven candidates, the party will have to work out a campaign to rekindle memories of the development delivered by Dikshit. It can also push issues like price rise and law and order. “The party cannot recover without recalling Sheila’s development agenda,” said a senior party adviser.

Mukesh Sharma, Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee president, said: “Delhi has been neglected by the BJP regime at the Centre. We will campaign against the anti-people policies of the Modi government and start agitations to expose the misdeeds of the BJP and AAP.”

Dismissing AAP, he said, “The party has lost its appeal in Delhi. They are not a factor.” — Himani Chandel

2013, the year all parties learnt a lesson

It was the novelty factor clubbed with the lack of a credible and strong leader in the BJP which propelled the nascent Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP to unprecedented success in the Delhi State Assembly elections held in December last.

Although the BJP, along with its ally SAD, emerged as the single-largest party with 32 MLAs, that was not enough to form a government. Finally, it was Kejriwal who bit the bullet and with his 28 MLAs and “not conditional” support from the eight MLAs of the Congress formed the minority government. Despite being the Chief Minister, Kejriwal could not let go of his “protesting” and autocratic style of functioning, leading to the fall of the government in just 49 days. It was a trivial issue of passing of some amendments in the Lok Pal Bill, which gave an embattled Kejriwal a way out to quit as the Chief Minister, forcing Lieutenant Governor Najeeb Jung to keep the State Assembly in suspended animation for nine months.

However, a lot of water has flowed since. For one, fed up with the Kejriwal-style of governance, Delhi voted decisively in favour of the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. A clean sweep for Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP in all seven Lok Sabha constituencies of Delhi was a shock for which AAP was not prepared. It came as an awakening for both AAP and Kejriwal, but by then they had lost so much ground that a second emergence may not be possible. It is no more the entity that drew both masses and classes under a common umbrella. Corruption as a poll issue has lost sheen and one-time followers are less inclined to allow the party to occupy moral high ground. Although Kejriwal has once again made an effort to incite passion among his supporters by challenging the BJP to declare its chief ministerial candidate, while almost anointing himself as the AAP choice, the former is not will to fall in the trap.

Carefully assessing that AAP has lost a major chunk of its vote bank after the Kejriwal antics and his overambition to reach Parliament rather than strengthening the party state by state, BJP’s campaigning would be central-party driven and based on the NDA’s good governance plank.

The BJP will fight the elections without a chief ministerial face, banking instead on ‘brand Modi’ for a repeat of the party’s winning performance in Maharashtra and Haryana. Besides Modi, other party leaders like Amit Shah and even those from the RSS are expected to be campaigning as the party is attaching great significance to Delhi. In its bid to finally root out AAP, the party cadre has been given strict instructions to neither attack Kejriwal nor his party. Instead, it has been told to fight collectively against the entire opposition.

The victories in Maharashtra and Haryana have reinforced the idea of a ‘Modi wave’ and infused fresh confidence in the Delhi BJP. The party expects to do well in the next round of polls in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir too, and feels the momentum will carry on to the Capital.

The BJP would stick to its tried-and-tested formula of going faceless and relying on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Our party believes in collective leadership and that is how we fought in Haryana and Maharashtra. We will get a clear majority this time too, and afterwards, whoever the collective leadership decides will lead the state. Our focus is on winning the elections,” Delhi BJP chief Satish Upadhyay has said.

And it could well be this new-found confidence under Narendra Modi, who continues to be the crusader against not only corruption, but also against filth, that could catapult the Delhi BJP to its best performance ever. — Girja Shankar Kaura