The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Positive signal from RBI
Inflation still uncomfortably high

The Reserve Bank sprang a pleasant surprise on Tuesday by cutting the cash-reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points, which was more than expected, driving up an already high BSE Sensex by 244 more points. The rally was led by bank stocks. For ordinary people there is not much good news as interest rates on home, auto and other personal loans will remain unchanged for the time being. With the cut in the CRR, which is the proportion of deposits banks need to keep with the RBI, more money will flow into the system. But banks will still hesitate to finance risky businesses.

From being anti-inflation, the RBI has turned pro-growth. It has sent the signal that after 13 rate hikes between March 2010 and October 2011 and a pause in December the time has come to support growth, though inflation still remains a worry. Since the recent drop in inflation could be seasonal as food and vegetable prices usually fall in winter due to sufficient supplies, core or manufacturing inflation still has not fallen enough. If inflation reverses the present downtrend due to a spike in the global oil prices caused by a European boycott of Iranian oil and troubles in the Eurozone, the RBI may have to delay rate cuts.

Apart from inflation the movement of interest rates will depend on the fate of the rupee, which has lately started strengthening due to stepped-up inflows of dollars in the current month. The Indian currency weakened 16 per cent against the dollar in 2011. Any hurdle in the US recovery or deterioration in Europe’s debt crisis can curtail dollar inflows as capital moves in risk-averse sectors like gold. To attract foreign direct investment the government can open retail and aviation. Faced with a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit and a large outgo in the social security schemes, the government’s capacity to extend relief to battered sectors like infrastructure is limited. It is borrowing heavily, draining whatever liquidity the RBI provides, at the cost of the corporate sector.

Cherish the girl child
Multi-pronged approach required

There is little doubt that the PNDT law, which aims to check the rising incidence of female foeticide, continues to be violated with impunity. Thus, the government’s proposal to overhaul the law is apt. The move to cancel the licenses of 93 doctors convicted for sex determination, as well as to ban mobile ultrasound machines is in a similar spirit. For ever since the PC & PNDT Act came into being 16 years ago, deterrent action against the erring has been sorely missing.

Even though measures have been taken time and again to redress the acute imbalance in the sex ratio, results have not been heartening. In fact, neither the positive incentive schemes nor the fear of law have been able to wean away or deter unscrupulous medical practitioners and son-crazed parents from aborting the female foetuses. What is even more shocking is that it’s not only illiterate and socially backward people who indulge in the heinous crime of getting rid of unborn daughters. Statistics have shown that most educated areas in states like Haryana have low sex ratio. That Jhajjar, which has one of the worst child sex ratios, has taken a lead in Haryana in installing active tracker device is praiseworthy. The device will enable the authorities concerned to keep tabs on all sonography machines at various ultrasound centres in the district Now, the Union government too has evinced interest in this measure.

No doubt, it will require more than tracking of ultrasound machines to tackle the social evil that has roots in centuries old prejudices and finds a new lease of life in the failure of law to take its due course. Multi-pronged efforts combining massive social awareness drives with deterrent action against those who turn a blind eye to rules are required. Those who see daughters as an economic and social burden must be made to see reason as scores of daughters have done their parents proud. The government too must go beyond tokenism. Merely making the right kinds of noises on Girl Child Day alone is not likely to put an end to the social menace that has far- reaching implications for India’s social fabric.

Thought for the Day

The love of one’s country is a splendid thing. But why should love stop at the border? — Pablo Casals

ARTICLE

Rising US-Iran tensions
Emerging strategic reality for India
by Harsh V. Pant

The last few days have witnessed an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, leading to turmoil in the global oil markets and threatening the delicate balance of power in West Asia. In just a week’s time, Iran ended up testing new missiles, declaring a breakthrough in nuclear technology and vowed to close shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Western sanctions over its nuclear programme. The Iranian armed forces commander, General Ataollah Salehi, even warned the US Navy ships to stay out of the Strait of Hormuz. Directing his words at the departing US aircraft carrier, USS John C. Stennis, based at the US 5th Fleet headquarters in nearby Bahrain, Salehi rather grandiosely declared: “We warn this ship, which is considered a threat to us, not to come back, and we do not repeat our words twice.” Dismissing this rhetoric, the US government made it clear that “the deployment of US military assets in the Persian Gulf region will continue as it has for decades.”

Iran clearly is feeling the impact of several rounds of economic sanctions that have been imposed by the West over the course of the last three years. The Iranian economy is faltering with the nation’s currency, the rial, slipping to an all-time low against the dollar after the US placed the Central Bank of India under unilateral sanctions. After boasting for years that economic sanctions are not having any effect on Iran, the latest turn of economic events is a blow to the Iranian government’s credibility. The troubles, however, have only just started as the European Union too has banned the import of Iranian oil that would include curbs on buying Iran’s main export commodity, petroleum.

The response of the Iranian leadership to this brewing economic crisis at home has been to ratchet up military tensions by undertaking a 10-day naval drill near the strategic Strait of Hormuz and testing a domestically produced cruise missile as well as an anti-radar missile. Though Iran is known to making empty rhetorical threats and is unlikely to risk a direct confrontation with the West, it can do great damage to the already stuttering global economy just by threatening a temporary disruption in the flow of oil from the region. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s main choke points for crude oil shipments and, therefore, an extremely sensitive area of operation for the US Navy as well as the entire global economy. Despite Iranian threats, however, the US will soon have not one but three of its aircraft carriers in the region even as the Iranian parliament has been reported to be preparing a Bill that would bar all foreign warships from entering the Persian Gulf unless they received permission from the Iranian Navy.

These tensions between the US and Iran come at a critical time when both nations have entered their election cycles. In the US, the Presidential elections of November will consume the energies of the Obama Administration, and parliamentary elections are due in Iran in March. A coalition of hard-line clerics, the Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and merchants who had brought President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, has now turned against him. This coalition will be challenging the supporters of the President, and the rhetoric against the US is only likely to intensify. These would be the first elections in Iran since a disputed Presidential vote in 2009 that prompted national protests and a severe crackdown.

Meanwhile, the US is also trying to assuage the concerns of its Arab allies. The Obama Administration announced an arms deal worth nearly $30 billion with Saudi Arabia the other day, sending a strong message to the regional states that the US remained committed to the stability in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia, which has a predominantly Sunni Muslim population, and Iran, mostly Shiite, have competed for regional influence for decades, and the Obama Administration has sought to bolster its security relationship with Riyadh, despite their differences over the response to the Arab Spring. A new containment policy is being structured by Washington with the installation of anti-missile batteries in the Arab states and with an emerging plan to put more ships and anti-missile batteries into the Persian Gulf as the concerns of Arab Gulf states have risen. The gulf between the West and Iran is widening which, many fear, will only empower the radical elements in the governing elite in Iran, making the resolution of the nuclear crisis even more difficult.

As tensions mount in West Asia, India will need to think creatively to safeguard its regional interests. There are some in India who have suggested that New Delhi can play a role in bringing the US and Iran closer. This is not only a gross overestimation of India’s own diplomatic heft but a serious misreading of the factors that have led to the drifting apart of the US and Iran over the last more than three decades. New Delhi would be better served by focusing on its own interests and how best to protect them in a regional milieu that is being shaken by Iran’s global isolation and military bellicosity.

The strategic reality that confronts New Delhi in West Asia today is that India has far more significant interests to preserve in the Arab Gulf, and as tensions rise between the Sunni Arab regimes and Iran, India’s larger stakes in the Arab world will continue to inhibit Indo-Iranian ties. At the same time, New Delhi’s outreach to Tehran will remain circumscribed by the internal power struggle within Iran, growing tensions between Iran and its Arab neighbours, and Iran’s continued defiance of the global nuclear order.

MIDDLE

Politics then and now
by N.S. Tasneem

Politicians are vying with one another to regain the upper hand over their rivals in one party or another. What, however, puzzles the masses is the staggering amount of assets which the candidates have declared in their affidavits submitted to the Election Commission. With the declaration of huge amounts, the candidates seem to be depicting a ‘holier than thou’ attitude in a mocking style. There is an interesting cartoon in a newspaper wherein a candidate has declared his assets as Rs 170 crore, adding that he has included the amount that would accrue to him if he is elected to the Legislative Assembly.

In this gloomy scenario there appears a glimmer of light, when the mind travels back to the good old days. That was the time when the persons wedded to the welfare of the people led a life of austerity. I am reminded of two episodes which have gained mythical proportions over the years. One is related to former Prime Minister of India Lal Bahadur Shastri and the other to former Cabinet Minister of Punjab Giani Kartar Singh. During the pre-Partition days Lala Lajpat Rai had established in Lahore the ‘Servants of the People Society’. The members of the society were whole-timers, engaged in serving the people according to a schedule. They were paid by the Society the minimal amount of money that was essential to meet the day-to-day demands of the family.

Lal Bahadur Shastri, being a member of the Society, had mentioned the amount of Rs 100 as he was supporting a large family. As such, that amount was sent to him at Allahabad every month. Once it so happened that a close friend of his came to him for a loan of Rs 100 which he needed to meet the expenses of the marriage of his daughter. Shastriji expressed his inability to do so as he was getting such amount from the Society as was barely necessary for the requirements of the family.

Incidentally, Shastriji’s wife was present in the room where the talk had taken place. Just out of sympathy, she told her husband that she had that much amount with her. So the amount was promptly passed on to the needy person. Later Shastriji asked his wife as to how she could save so such amount in the course of a year. She told him that she had been saving Rs 10 a month for some emergency or an untoward incident in the family. He appreciated her concern for the family.

The same day he wrote a letter to Lala Lajpat Rai mentioning that his family needed Rs 90 a month to meet daily expenses. So in future, instead of Rs 100, the amount of Rs 90 should be sent to him. This gesture speaks volumes of the integrity of the great servant of the people.

Giani Kartar Singh was a veteran Akali leader and he was witness to the partition of the country. Master Tara Singh was the President of the Shiromani Akali Dal at that time. He was known as a good orator but his approach was emotional to the burning issues of the time. On the other hand, Giani Kartar Singh was adept at presenting solutions to the problems besetting the region from an intellectual point of view.

When the Akali Ministry was formed in Punjab during the 1960’s, Giani Kartar Singh was given the portfolio of Education as Cabinet Minister. Later there was an abrupt change in the loyalties of Akali MLAs, resulting in the fall of the Akali Ministry. So Giani Kartar Singh was asked, in due course, by the Estate Office to vacate the bungalow that he had been occupying as a minister. In this connection he had received two memos from the department but be could not act accordingly due to some problem.

Once when he was basking in the sun in the lawns of his bungalow, two officers from the Estate Office came with the request that he should shift to his MLA Flat. Gianiji got up from his chair, removed his towel, shirt, pyjama and kachchehra (underwear) from the clothline overhead and told them that the bungalow was vacant. Saying so, he walked out.

Indeed, Giani Kartar Singh was also a true servant of the people. When he died he left behind no movable or immovable property. During his tenure as Education Minister, he had sanctioned the establishment of Governement College at Tanda Urmar. After his death, the college was rechristened as Giani Kartar Singh Government College to perpetuate his memory.

Now at this period of Indian democracy, the good deeds of the stalwarts of the era gone by flicker in the minds of the people like the light at the end of the dark tunnel. It is not merely the money that is being flaunted which is irksome, but the absence of any unpretentious commitment for the welfare of the common people rattles in the minds of the voters.

OPED ROAD SAFETY

A safe road system does not just require road users who obey the traffic rules. It is equally necessary to have manufacturers who produce safe vehicles and the authorities who provide roads designed for safety
improving safety standards of roads
Deepak Dasgupta

It has been encouraging of late to see greater media coverage of road accidents and various aspects concerning road safety. The judiciary, too, has expressed its concern through some of the recent pronouncements about the parlous state of road safety in the country and has underscored the need for some exemplary action.

In doing so, the media and the judiciary have given voice to the general public concern at the apathetic disregard of the alarming level of accident threats on Indian roads. One can hope that the concern, which is now being expressed, will result in some firm and effective action by the authorities.

Road engineering can be faulty

In any discussion on the subject the emphasis has generally been on the driver’s error or the road user’s mistake as the underlying cause of an accident and has thereby helped focus attention on the need for better enforcement of the traffic laws and rules.

In providing, however, for a safe road system, while it is imperative to have road users who obey the traffic laws, it is equally necessary to have manufacturers who provide safe vehicles and the authorities who provide safe roads.

In the discussion hitherto, the lack of suitable and effective provisioning in the road itself that could have prevented or alleviated the impact of an accident has not been adequately considered and examined. It is important that this aspect is also given due consideration in the current discourse.

The year 2012 began with the tragic accident on a highway near Ambala involving a school van in a head-on collision with a truck that reportedly resulted in the death of 11 school children. The attributed causes for the accident and the resultant loss of life have been mentioned as the prevalent fog, the high speed of the truck and the lack of prescribed safety measures in the school van.

While these factors would certainly form the basis for the reasons that caused the accident, there is also a need for discussion on the prevalent condition of the highway, the presence and absence of prescribed measures and generally about any engineering treatment which could have helped avoid the accident, or at least substantially reduce its impact.

Why, for instance, were the vehicles driving in the same space? Did the highway have the prescribed reflective road marking in proper condition as required under the highway code? What are the provisions that can be made to make our highways safer under conditions of poor visibility such as fog?

A little while ago this newspaper had highlighted the heroic story of Harman Sidhu, who has battled a life crushing road accident and despite numerous surgeries, still found the verve to work on road safety with a missionary zeal. Harman’s life changed forever the day in 1996 when the car he was travelling in rolled down a mountain gorge, delivering a crippling blow to his life and ambitions.

Roads in mountains dangerously unsafe

Although the exact causes of this accident are not available, the fact remains that Indian mountain roads are dangerously unsafe with frequent accidents. In 2011 itself there have been a number of vehicular accidents in the hills resulting in a substantial loss of life. While these accidents may have been caused by the carelessness on the part of drivers, the roads themselves badly lack in engineering features to prevent such accidents.

It has to be emphasised that mountain roads have to be designed and built with special care and provisions and thereafter maintained in a meticulous manner. It may be useful, perhaps, in this regard, to have the national highways in the mountains built with particular attention to details regarding their safe operation so as to provide the example for other hill roads rather than following the usual pattern of building a road by merely excavating the hill side.

According to the World Bank, the experience the world over has shown that road crashes can be prevented by better planning and more safety conscious design of the road network. Systematic identification and treatment of hazardous locations can substantially improve road safety. The remedial measures are usually low cost relative to the overall project expenditure and have much better short-term results than improving vehicle standards or drivers’ skills and behaviour.

The developed world experience also suggests that effective action should focus on a safe road design of roads outside major towns where two-thirds of crashes occur. Deaths are concentrated on main national and regional roads which, therefore, are the target of action.

With improvements in the national and state highways, the Indian experience appears to be similar. Out of the nearly 1,34,000 deaths due to road accidents in 2010, as many as 65 per cent were on national or state highways, where the road design and the maintenance of its safety features would have played a significant role. Thus, it is important to assert the essential nature of road engineering measures, particularly on our highways, for the prevention of accidents and to dispel the mistaken notion that road accidents are mainly the result of human errors.

Road safety audit of highways

Clearly, therefore, in order to make an immediate impact on the road accident scenario, an urgent review has to be carried out on the safety conditions prevalent on our national highways and the various state highway networks. This can be achieved through a systematic application of a road safety audit to these networks by the highway agencies concerned.

Such an audit will provide an independent assessment of the accident potential and likely safety performance of a specific design for a road or traffic scheme – whether new construction or an alteration to an existing road. Safety audits can be carried out during the design, construction or the maintenance phases of road projects.

Taking cognizance of the need, the government had announced its intention to carry out safety audits on the national highways. There appears, however, little concrete action on the ground. Even where a safety audit has been done, the recommendations of the audit do not appear to have been implemented.

Although, the expenditure on the recommended measures is likely to be fairly nominal, these are not being undertaken in the belief that their impact in securing enhanced levels of safety will be quite minimal. Generally, road maintenance is limited to fixing pot-holes and clearing drainage facilities without replacing missing traffic signs, guard rails, road markings and other safety features essential to create a safe road network.

Similarly, safety measures incorporated in the road design of highways are frequently deleted with a view to reducing the overall cost of projects. This defeats the aim of designing to tackle possible safety problems from the beginning and obviate future problems.

It is important that safety audits are made an integral part of the highway scenario in India. Since safety of roads is a matter of grave concern to the public, it should be made incumbent on the part of each highway agency to provide information in the public domain on safety audits conducted highway-wise, the recommendations made and action taken thereon.

Similarly, safety features included in the design of the highway should be highlighted through a separate chapter in the Detailed Project Report so as to clearly indicate the safety audit effort in the design and allow their serious consideration during the approval of the project.

Limiting impact of human error

The movement in road engineering now is for designing and building forgiving roads. This recognises that humans are liable to make errors but the commitment of an error should not result in consequences going up to death. A forgiving road would, therefore, forgive and minimise the impact of a mistake, a road that would recognise that mistakes are inevitable and would try to minimise the impact of an accident.

So rather than drivers having to protect themselves from on coming obstacles in case they have skidded, the obstacles are themselves moved away as far as possible. Obstacles, which could not be moved away, are made flexible so as to cause minimum damage.

Through considerable R&D effort, a number of ingredients have been identified which would go towards constituting a forgiving road. In India also a preliminary identification of some measures has been done. What, however, is necessary now is the conscious application of these measures in the design and building of our roads.

Time has come for us to now clearly recognise the impact that safe and forgiving roads can have in reducing accidents and fatalities on our roads, particularly the highways. Suitable action can be easily taken for national and state highways since these are directly under the charge of road agencies themselves. This should include a transparent system of safety audit on a regular basis from design to the operation stage. An improvement in the safety standards of roads is likely to yield results much earlier than other enforcement action that depends on changing people’s behaviour.

The writer is a former Chairman, National Highway Authority of India