The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

World Bank pessimism
China props up Asian mood

THE World Bank has scaled down India’s growth rate for the current fiscal year to 6.8 per cent, which is lower than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s estimate of 7 per cent. The bank’s gloomy outlook for India, in fact for Asia as a whole should have normally been viewed with concern. But the response has been the opposite. Stock markets usually reflect the economic mood of a country. Lately Asian markets have been upbeat, which means investors in these countries are more optimistic about the emerging economic scenario than the World Bank. On Thursday last, almost all Asian markets ended in green with Japan’s Nikkei vaulting 2 per cent.

The latest positive trigger comes from China. Though the figures released on Wednesday last show that China’s economic growth has shrunk to a single digit of 9.2 per cent for the first time in three decades, these have allayed fears of a sharp slowdown. Experts had predicted a hard landing for China’s export-driven economy, which would have had wider repercussions for the world in general and Asia in particular. Asian markets cheered the surprise development. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka too are set to grow as fast as India, though Pakistan, Nepal and Iran have remained laggards with their economic expansion expected to fall below 4 per cent.

The situation in Europe remains explosive. France’s credit rating was downgraded recently. Germany witnessed a contraction in the last quarter. Thus the capacity of the two top EU economies to offer bailouts to countries driven to the brink by debt will get curtailed. The US, on the other hand, has reported an improvement in its economic data, which has helped contain the spread of pessimism. In India the mood is of hope. Inflation has come down. Interest rates have peaked and may start falling later this year. Dollar inflows have picked up, resulting in the strengthening of the rupee. The World Bank data thus has failed to dash the hopes of a better year ahead for Asia.

Cost of neglect
Invest more in science education, research

India originally intended such stress on science that our Constitution enjoined our citizens to develop a scientific temper. Nehru’s idea of science was of it being rational and universal. In time, he and other national leaders poured major resourses into inculcating scientific expertise among the citizens. as well as building institutions where young minds could be educated, and then given jobs so that India would become a strong and self-reliant nation whose scientists would compare well with the rest of the world.

The 99th Indian Science Congress, which was held at Bhubaneswar recently served to illustrate how badly we have slipped in the field where we should have been leaders. What to talk of poor attendance, both, among the invited speakers as well as the delegates, it is unfortunate that even among those who came, the focus was more on the activities outside the conference venue than the proceedings within.

Indeed, India’s goals in science and technology look distant because of a certain degree of fossilisation in the education and research infrastructure, which does not provide the young Indian scientists with the kind of training and tools that are needed to survive in today’s hyper-competitive world. The number of research papers by Indian scientists that appear in respected journals are woefully inadequate, as is the number of areas of competence in which Indian scientists have a visible presence. On the whole, the country is investing far less than other nations, even Asian ones, in its science and technology infrastructure. It is sad but not surprising that Indian universities do not even figure in the list of top 100 universities of the world. The government and scientific establishments must undertake a review of the situation on a war footing in order to identify and fix the problem areas so that the nation can give its bright young scientists a fighting chance in the near future.

Thought for the Day

Science may have found a cure for most evils, but it has found no remedy for the worst of them all — the apathy of human beings. — Helen Keller

ARTICLE

It’s all power politics
Real issues being ignored in election-bound states
by Kuldip Nayar

IT is difficult to say whether the cantankerous politics in India is responsible for a lewd campaign in the five states that are going to the polls or whether the obsession to win has reduced politics to the cantankerous level. The electioneering so far reflects only power politics. There is no mention of malnutrition of 45 per cent children, a national shame characterised by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Nor is any political party talking about the 23 crore people going without food every day.

Whether it is the election in UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa or in Manipur, the focus is on personal attacks. Issues are again missing, although they figure on the election manifesto of every party. Most attention is being given to UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand in that order. The reason why UP matters so much is because the ruling Nehru-Gandhi dynasty comes from the state which has the largest number of seats in the Lok Sabha — as many as 80.

The future of Rahul Gandhi, Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s son, who is tipped as the next Prime Minister, depends on the outcome of UP elections. If the Congress becomes the No. 1 party — it is fourth at present — there is every possibility that he will be sworn in straightaway. He can, however, wait till the middle of this year when President Pratibha Patil ends her tenure. Then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who has said more than once that he is willing to vacate the chair for Rahul Gandhi, can be kicked upstairs conveniently.

At present, the fight in UP is between Chief Minister Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party and former Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. The Congress and the BJP are contesting for the third position. Ms Mayawati has been hit a bit by the draping of the statues of elephants, her party’s symbol. But her vote of Dalits is solid, nearly 20 per cent, and she can deliver it to anyone who fights on her party ticket. She has picked up many Brahmins, Thakurs and Muslims as her candidates.

The Congress has made only a little headway with the Muslims because they still carry the stigma of Babri Masjid’s demolition and the Batala House encounter in Delhi where two Muslim students were killed. Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh’s reiteration that the Batala House encounter was fake does not cut much ice when Home Minister P. Chidambaram rebuts him by saying he has personally found that the encounter was genuine. Significantly, the case is subjudice because it is in court. Should the Home Minister have made such remarks?

Indiscretion has come to be part of the Congress discourse. When the Election Commission rightly stopped the Centre from doubling the 4.5 per cent quotas of backward Muslims after the announcement of polls, Law Minister Salman Khurshid said that the EC was under “the administrative control” of his ministry.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had to assure Chief Election Commissioner S.Y. Quraishi that any challenge to the commission’s authority was out of the question. In fact, Mr Khurshid was the person who had made the announcement of doubling the quota in the constituency where his wife is contesting on the Congress ticket. The BJP looking for such opportunities lost no time to politicise and parochialise the atmosphere. Extremist Uma Bharti has been included to muddy the water.

In Punjab, it is essentially a clash of personalities belonging to the two major parties, the Congress and the Akali Dal. Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, who had once the backing of the entire Badal family, is now being challenged by his brother in his constituency. Mr Manpreet Singh, the latter’s son, has constituted the People’s Party of Punjab (PPP) after quitting the Badal government. The PPP was doing well till a couple of weeks ago when some of its stalwarts joined the Congress. I always thought that the PPP would play the role of a king maker, winning enough seats not to let both the Akali Dal and the Congress win a clear majority. At present, the PPP does not seem to be making any significant dent in the two parties.

Congress leader Amarinder Singh, who looked like winning a majority, has to blame himself. He took the Congress victory for granted and gave the Akalis an opportunity to retrieve the ground they had lost. His impatience drove his brother, Mr Malvinder Singh, to the Akali fold. What would have been an easy fight has become tough.

The Akalis have the advantage of the gurdwara staff and the money at the disposal because they control the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC). Punjab’s “deras” can cut into their votes. Despite the limitation on a candidate’s expenditure, money is flowing in Punjab. It is estimated that some Rs 3,000 crore would have been spent by different political parties for 117 seats. The BJP, which won 19 seats last time and helped the Akalis form the government, does not seem to be doing so well. The party’s ministers were dropped from the Cabinet because of charges of corruption against them. The electorate may not forget this when they go to cast their votes.

Uttarakhand does not have the Anna Hazare-type campaign against corruption. But the dishonest regime by Mr Romesh Pokhriyal Nishunk, predecessor of Mr Khanduri, is being exploited by the Congress. There is also the incumbency factor. The scene in all the five states is murky and both the Congress and the BJP are in for surprises. Yet the disappointing fat is that no political party is highlighting the basic issues the states are faced with.

It looks as if the Congress is winning in Manipur. This is in spite of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act under which the Army has not answered the excesses it has committed. Irom Sharmila has been on fast for the last decade and New Delhi has not even implemented the recommendations of its own committee which said that the Armed Forces Act should be withdrawn. It would not speak well of the people in Manipur if they still return the Congress which is ruling the state.

MIDDLE

That guardian angel!
by Bharat Hiteshi

That night was very tough! At that point, anything would have sent me into a tailspin and one little thing could push me over the edge. Thankfully, a stranger invested a little of his time into my life, and his kindness put me back on track to sanity and changed my perception of looking at things and turning me almost into a social worker.

I had just taken voluntary retirement from a nationalised bank after holding a senior management post and had gone to meet my parents and my father-in-law at Abohar and Muktsar for their suggestion for my future life. I was with my wife and daughter. My father-in-law was apt in reading my mind and admonished me to have an aim in life. He advised me to start helping the needy. It was on his suggestion that I later started promoting organ donation and blood donation.

Recalling the events of that night I would say that when problems come, they never come alone but in droves. For me, the problem came in the form of some uneasiness that I was feeling and it was at the same time when a tyre of my car got deflated. I checked up for the spare wheel and found that it was already punctured, and I was stupid enough not to have the puncture plugged.

With the chill of winter biting at the dead of night, my daughter started crying. I pushed my car to a petrol filling station that was closed and tried to fill the air but the gauge didn’t move. I kept trying but in vain. Then a bus stopped seeing our plight. The driver came out and offered to take us to our destination, saying that it was not safe for a person to be with his wife and daughter at midnight on a highway. This further scared us.

I was a little frustrated, but tried to look normal. My wife, who had put on her expensive jewellery, wandered around, waiting for a solution to fall from the sky. Thankfully, the solution came from a 70-year-plus old peasant.

The old farmer went back to his village, brought an air pump from the house of the village sarpanch and filled the air in the tube. He had also brought hot tea for us which was nothing short of an elixir at that time. Overwhelmed, we could not ask the old man from where he had emerged and parted company with moist eyes. Till date when we pass through the highway we bow our head in reverence for the stranger who came to help us as our guardian angel!

OPED-NEIGHBOURS

Unrealistic expectations
The issue in question is the National Reconciliation Ordinance, pushed through by Gen Pervez Musharraf and subsequently quashed by the court.
Mahir Ali

AFTER the Pakistan Army Chief met his putative boss the other day after a long interval, presidential spokesman Farhatullah Babar assailed the accounts of what had passed between them with what could be described as a quadruple whammy: "The reports, without quoting [a] source, are hypothetical, based on conjecture and in the realm of speculation."

Pakistan President Asif Zardari

The trouble, of course, is that all too many of the reports emanating from Pakistan fall into one or more of those categories. One of the more obvious causes of this phenomenon is the tendency of official spokespersons to be frugal with the facts. Sometimes the simplest of questions elicits an absurd response. For instance, after Asif Zardari last week succumbed yet again to the 'Dubai chalo' urge and, contrary to fevered speculation, returned from the private visit, his spokesman, asked whether the President was concerned about the national political crisis, pithily responded: "Absolutely not. Why should he be?"

Perhaps he should be because almost everyone else in the country is. He may have nipped down to Dubai in a vain attempt, inter alia, to demonstrate his nonchalance, yet might not relish being typecast as the Alfred E. Neuman of Pakistani politics - particularly in view of that earlier "What, me worry" moment in the aftermath of the worst floods in Pakistan's history.

The President doesn't always require a spokesman to give the impression of a disconnect with reality. On Benazir Bhutto's death anniversary last month he was quoted as claiming at a rally in Garhi Khuda Bakhsh: "I tell you, politics … is the art of the possible. But making a nation is the art of the impossible and I believe I am doing the art of the impossible."

Making a nation? It must be a top-secret project. But any skills he may possess as a conjurer will be sorely tested in the days ahead.

The confrontation between the federal government and the military high command seemingly waxes and wanes from day to day - providing plenty of scope for speculation. Harsh words alternate with conciliatory signals. A coup of sorts still appears to be in the offing, and the Supreme Court's issue of a contempt order against Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani may well mean that the first act of a tragic farce will be wrapped up in the next few days. The issue in question here is the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), pushed through by Gen Pervez Musharraf and subsequently quashed by the court. Its judgment had some merit, but it's hard to imagine why it would expect this or any other government to follow instructions that effectively entail picking up a firearm and shooting itself in the foot.

Whether the Swiss authorities would heed a formal request from Islamabad to reopen a financial impropriety case against Zardari is far from obvious; what's much clearer is the determination of certain players to find a way around his domestic presidential immunity.

The fallback for the powers that be is "memogate". It is hard to see how that sordid case could stand up in any court, given that the primary witness for the prosecution is so prone to contradicting himself. It has never been very clear what made Mansoor Ijaz decide, several months after having conveyed the memo in question, to go public about it. Was it a quest for publicity or self-aggrandisement? A threat or a prod from some direction? A response to a personal slight?

Whatever the case, it can be argued that Husain Haqqani deserved to be penalised for dubious associations, if nothing else.

More generally, there is no dearth of grounds on which the present government's merits can be questioned. What's easy to defend, however, is the concept that power - or, more precisely, political office - should change hands by democratic means. That, in the Pakistani context, would be a novelty worth striving for. Yet such a trend will prove impossible to establish as long as the army remains a key behind-the-scenes political player.

The periods of direct military rule that make up half the nation's history proved disastrous in various ways and to varying degrees. For the moment, though, the likeliest prospect appears to be a re-run of the insidious manipulation that followed the unprecedentedly bleak Zia era. True, the Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif governments that alternated in office in the 11 years from 1988, with barely a decent interval between them, were thoroughly undistinguished. Yet the rejoicing when General Musharraf took over was entirely misplaced.

Perhaps the most bizarre coup of all was the one General Musharraf carried out against himself in late 2007, in a desperate attempt to retain power. He has announced plans to return to Pakistan to rejoin the political circus, although it is not clear in what capacity. Could a bout of imprisonment lend him a stellar glow? That's doubtful - although stranger things have happened. It is hard not to sympathise with a palpable longing for an alternative to the shambolic status quo. The trouble is there's no guarantee - or even a strong likelihood - that the next coalition to take office will be a substantial improvement on the present variant. That's tragic, but if there is any way out of this conundrum, it lies in cultivating parliamentary democracy as a long-term habit rather than tolerating it as a fleeting mirage.

A compromise on early elections may be the least painful route out of the present crisis, but preventing its recurrence will require a great deal more. In the short run, can the judiciary be persuaded to accept that it's only suffering from an identity crisis - that it isn't really the legislature? In the medium run, can the army be convinced to break off its illicit relationship with politics? In the long run, as J.M. Keynes famously put it, we are all dead.

— By arrangement with Dawn, Islamabad

Lahore losing history

LAHORE: The medieval walled city of Lahore is under threat from a construction 'free-for-all'. It is ruining its precious heritage.

Rapid and illegal growth is crowding out the "old city" -the section of the eastern hub fortified by a wall during the Mughal era - while its unique carved wood balconies jutting on to brick-lined streets fall into disrepair.

"My family has been living here for 300 years, but residential culture is facing the threat of extinction," Zafar Askari, 40, told AFP.

"New markets and shopping plazas are springing up at a fast pace. The hallmark tranquillity of interior Lahore is no more," he said.

Shops have sprouted to form ugly scars on the boundary walls. Several dozen small cloth shops and steel workshops have been built around the historic Wazir Khan mosque and Shahi Hamam royal bath.

"As far as building regulations are concerned, it's a free-for-all. People are demolishing old houses and constructing multi-storeyed markets, and illegal encroachments are mushrooming," said Askari.

At least 1,45,000 people live jampacked in the area that houses the famed 16th-17th century Lahore Fort and Badshahi Mosque, crowded into just over 2.6 square kilometres (258 hectares). Sunlight rarely filters through the web of narrow alleys covering the district, where pedestrians are forced to wade through piles of goods and hand-carts moving merchandise.

Of the 13 original gates to the walled city, only six remain, and most of those have been turned into shops, their architectural beauty lost and motifs peeled off.

Residents say it's a health hazard, with ambulances and fire engines unable to access many of the 20,000 buildings in the walled city, where around half have been taken over as commercial premises, according to a government survey.

"People work around the system and flout the laws by paying bribes," a local government official told AFP on condition of anonymity, adding that the area has been subjected to "decades" of such neglect.

"Corruption is rampant in Pakistan, as it is in the municipal department and other enforcement agencies," the official said.

Hopes for preserving the city are pinned on a provincial government plan that has won the support of development agency Agha Khan Foundation, the German government and the World Bank, but this has been stalled.

Under the plan, the old city is to eventually see its famed buildings restored to their former glory and properly looked after, while excessive commercial encroachments would be removed from the streets.

But the project that was initiated five years ago has made little progress so far, despite the total funding of at least 860 million Pakistani rupees ($9.5 million). Large-scale surveys of the area, its buildings, environment and economic activity have been carried out, a planning department official said on condition of anonymity. But residents complain that little else has been done.

One resident from the area, Zahid Hussain, said the plan had been bogged down by arguments between shopkeepers and the authorities over the removal of illegal constructions.

Punjab Tourism Department official Shahid Butt said that a deal was being worked out to remove the illegal constructions. "These shops are going to be moved from here soon as an agreement between the authorities and traders has been reached," he told AFP.

Others are seeing ways to preserve the vibrant social life of the district where street cafes and restaurants serve hot meals round the clock, and people flock from all over the city and further afield for a late-night meal.

A new street comprising more than 50 outlets serving traditional cuisine has sprung up between the historic Lahore Fort and Badshahi Mosque.

But whether enough can be done to defend a fast-eroding residential culture is unclear.

— By arrangement with Dawn

Window on pakistan
Syed Nooruzzaman
Journalists in the firing-line

THE media in Pakistan has been playing an admirable role by highlighting fearlessly the happenings in that country for a long time, but at a great cost to journalists. Their survival remains threatened not only in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, in the news mostly for wrong reasons, but also elsewhere. Newspapers keep carrying stories about the plight of media professionals and the authorities make promises to ensure their safety, but that is all. Those — both state and not-state actors — who feel uncomfortable because of their controversial deeds being exposed try to eliminate the journalist concerned. And in most cases, they succeed in implementing their gory plan. The latest case that can be cited is that of Mukarram Khan Atif, a correspondent for the Voice of America and Deewa, a Pashtu-language private TV channel based in Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa.

Atif was killed a few days back while offering prayers in a mosque that had come up mainly because of his efforts. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) would feel threatened because of his exposes. Ultimately, the TTP eliminated him and then claimed responsibility for the crime! According to The News, the TTP has announced that "Atif is just one of a number of journalists they are going to kill".

Dawn says the "targeting of newsmen by the Taliban will not only have repercussions for the safety of journalists reporting militancy. It will also mean that large parts of the northwest (of Pakistan) could well become a news blackout zone, with serious consequences, particularly in the context of abuses that may come to light."

Unfortunately, all institutions of the Pakistani state have a soft corner for religious extremism, one of the factors sustaining terrorism. The role of Pakistan's intelligence agencies is also to blame for the victimisation of media professionals. These state agencies have been patronising extremist outfits as a matter of policy.

This sorry state of affairs must end for promoting a culture of tolerance, essential for the growth of democracy. "Brutality and barbarism must be shown for what they are. Without this effort, extremist groups will continue to target all those who are vocal about their activities", as Dawn commented editorially.

In the "most dangerous country in the world" for media professionals, politicians and other interest groups too sometimes behave like the Taliban. This shows that the extremist ideology is influencing the thinking of most sections of society in Pakistan.

Before the killing of Atif, the journalist who was done to death was Saleem Shehzad. A group fighting for the cause of journalists recently tried to focus attention on the threat to newsmen through judicial intervention, but in vain. The judicial commission appointed for finding out the forces behind the killing of journalists did not suggest any meaningful remedy. It only recommended the payment of Rs3 million to Shahzad's widow, as if this was the price of a newsman's life.

There appears to be no commitment on the part of the authorities to ensure the safety of media persons. How many more journalists they want to be gunned down before the authorities will realise their responsibility?

In fact, concrete measures should have been taken when US journalist (a Wall Street Journal reporter) Daniel Pearl was kidnapped and murdered in a dramatic manner by the Taliban a few years back. No doubt, Daniel's killing led to four persons getting life sentence, but nothing happened in other cases.

The result is that journalists continue to be targeted in Pakistan every now and then. Besides Atif and Shahzad, two other newsmen also lost their lives during the past few months — Zahid Qureshi and Umar Cheema. Among those who have been receiving threats to their lives are three well-known media personalities — Najam Sethi and Jugnu Mohsin of The Friday Times and Hamid Mir. Sethi and Jugnu had to leave Pakistan for their protection. They came back home only recently. But are they feeling safe today?