The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Job creation dips
Provide training for skills in demand
A 21 per cent decline in job creation in the country this year, as revealed in an Assocham study, does not come as a surprise but is a source of worry. The year 2012 has been a difficult period for the global economy and India too has suffered the brunt of slowdown. Critics of economic reforms, particularly the Leftists, point out that India has achieved faster but jobless growth in recent years.

Thought for the Day

ARTICLE

Emerging power equations
China as a new and major player
by S. Nihal Singh
The year 2012 has sprung a few surprises, but in the main it has projected a number of dilemmas for the rich and the powerful as also for those seeking to transform their countries and how they are governed. The United States, still the most powerful nation in the world, is giving President Barack Obama a second chance to prevent a hundred-year war between Israel and the Palestinians and refrain from starting a new war with Iran, which would swallow the Middle East (a more precise definition than West Asia) in another conflagration.

MIDDLE

‘Press’ and ‘Doctor’
by Harbans Singh Virdi
The traffic policeman was puzzled to see me smiling even after I was handed over the challan slip for jumping the red light at a crossing. Now the red light to me is like a red flag to a bull. I am bound to jump it. However, the traffic policeman did not realise that I was drawing some kind of sadistic pleasure from the fact that the traffic drive had led to the rounding up of so many influential people, whose cars were pasted with awesome stickers like the “Press”, “Doctor” and “Army”.

Oped Pakistan

A distrusted frontline ally
With India, which is more important than any other country in terms of being a potential game changer for Pakistan's future, we are at the highest point since the composite dialogue stalled in 2008
Moeed Yusuf
IN terms of foreign relationships, Pakistan has been in a rather peculiar position over the past decade. It is a frontline ally in the global coalition against terrorism. Yet, it is acutely distrusted by most of the global power centres and some have even characterised it as the problem child of South Asia.

Time for decisive action
JUST a few days after losing Bashir Bilour, Pakistan has moved on to the next news story — something the country now tends to do after every tragedy it suffers at the hands of violent extremism. But the danger in moving on so rapidly, without doing anything about such a serious threat, is that the threat only gets bigger.

Window on Pakistan
Is it ultimatum for political reforms?
Syed Nooruzzaman
The PPP-led government in Pakistan faces a new challenge thrown up by a religious leader having a substantial following. He has asked the Asif Zardari regime "to establish an honest and independent body that will introduce electoral reforms and pave the way for free and fair elections".

Matter of choice
Punjab can indeed be made safe

Under fire on law and order in the state, Punjab Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal has announced certain measures to restore people’s confidence. One of the steps to be taken is setting up a designated police cadre for night patrolling. This could prove to be a useful idea, especially in view of the disorganised daily routine of a typical policeman, whose hours of duty and rest are so blurred that it is hard to stay alert and effective at night. However, the Police Department would be well advised to think through the logistics before the launch, because a half-baked plan is only a waste of resources and also hurts public confidence in governance.

Sanjh Kendras is another initiative that the government intends to reinvigorate. Potentially a very people-friendly interface with the police, it has also been a lesson in how not to launch a scheme. It has thus far lacked the resources as well as support from the police, which did not want to lose out direct contact with applicants for various services, which meant a chance to impose authority. Community policing, if implemented well, is one of the most effective ways of connecting with the people, and providing them help in the form it is most needed.

The Punjab Police is a force that has once shown its will under testing circumstances. Some of the battle-hardened officers are now at the top. Let them be given the responsibility and elbow room to make it a professionally managed body once again. The choice is with the government — dedicate the police genuinely to people’s security, spot officers who can achieve that, and get political interference out of the police’s functioning, or let the present rot continue. The dividends will be for the state, the ruling alliance, as well as the force. If Sukhbir believes the SAD-BJP alliance won the last election on the basis of development, let this be a term of administrative reform, in a way that people feel it.

Job creation dips
Provide training for skills in demand

A 21 per cent decline in job creation in the country this year, as revealed in an Assocham study, does not come as a surprise but is a source of worry. The year 2012 has been a difficult period for the global economy and India too has suffered the brunt of slowdown. Critics of economic reforms, particularly the Leftists, point out that India has achieved faster but jobless growth in recent years. An ILO report, “Global Employment Patterns 2012”, supports this view. It says that India’s robust growth “has been associated with a rapid rise in labour productivity, rather than an expansion in employment”.

Jobs have been created in certain urban areas of India and in select sectors. According to the Assocham survey, Delhi and the National Capital Region were at the top by generating 1.1 lakh jobs followed by Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai. Of the metros, Kolkata accounted for the smallest number of jobs—25,000. Among the sectors, information technology, education, insurance, automobiles, banks and financial services generated more employment than others. Interestingly, while major cities of Gujarat have fared well in providing employment, the rest of the state has seen a decline of 26-35 per cent in job opportunities. In reaching these conclusions Assocham has relied on data culled from online and media job advertisements.

Industry and other engines of growth are located mostly in urban areas. Though the UPA government’s rural job guarantee scheme and Bharat Nirmaan have made an impact in certain states, rural India, by and large, has lagged behind due to lack of quality education and opportunities for learning skills the growing economy needs. There is a demand for skilled persons in aviation, insurance and telecom but the supply is limited. There is a glut of management and engineering graduates but most are unemployable. The urban-rural and demand-supply mismatch should be removed. Educational institutions should cater to the demands of the growing sectors of the economy, while the corporate sector can pitch in with funds as part of their social responsibility.

Thought for the Day

In action a great heart is the chief qualification. In work, a great head. — Arthur Schopenhauer

ARTICLE

Emerging power equations
China as a new and major player
by S. Nihal Singh

The year 2012 has sprung a few surprises, but in the main it has projected a number of dilemmas for the rich and the powerful as also for those seeking to transform their countries and how they are governed. The United States, still the most powerful nation in the world, is giving President Barack Obama a second chance to prevent a hundred-year war between Israel and the Palestinians and refrain from starting a new war with Iran, which would swallow the Middle East (a more precise definition than West Asia) in another conflagration.

The Sino-American relationship will be the key to the future of the better part of the world. The new Chinese leadership headed by Xi Jinping is feeling its way as a still immature aspiring super power, but the pumping up of nationalism to fill the void caused by the empty shell of communism, the accent on fast militarisation and the aggressive tone it has adopted towards neighbours, particularly Japan, are ominous signs. The United States, for its part, has announced moving its pivot to Asia to reinforce its status as a Pacific power and to assure its allies and friends nervous about China that it will not abandon them.

The European continent has diminished somewhat in its power projection because of the euro crisis and British restlessness over its own role. What has also sapped the strength of Europe and many other parts of the world is the economic slowdown that has brought in a measure of gloom. Economic problems also cover China and other emerging countries, including India, although Beijing can boast of a spectacular war chest in the form of currency reserves as well as American bonds. The United States would seem to be emerging out of its slow growth pattern although President Obama faces a fractious and obstreperous House of Representatives with a Republican majority.

Against this background, the American task is cut out in preventing a war over Iran's nuclear ambitions vis-à-vis Israel's trigger-happy rulers, manage the antagonism between China and Japan and engage China even while warning it of the dangers of an aggressive foreign policy. It is too much to hope that he will be able to surmount domestic hurdles to give the Palestinians justice in a situation in which the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is foreclosing the prospect of a two-state solution. Indeed, the US administration's success in moving the pivot to Asia is dependent upon the weight of its burden in Middle East affairs.

The transition in the Arab and Muslim world is proceeding apace with problems and conflicts inherent in a change that is earth-shaking in view of the long tradition of dictatorships of the military or other varieties. Egypt, in a sense the fulcrum, is still battling between the sway of the Islamists and the more secular sections, particularly the minorities. It seems clear, however, that Islamic mores will prevail; the crucial point is how Islamists make peace with their minorities and liberals by guaranteeing them essential freedoms.

Apart from the United States, the key players in the Middle East are the Gulf kingdoms led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Qatar (in view of its financial heft), and Iran and, as a spoiler, Israel. Even as the regional players are seeking to safeguard and expand their interests, outside powers such as the US and Russia will influence the outcome depending on the former’s decision to approve an acceleration of heavy military equipment for anti-Assad forces and the latter’s attempt to maintain a distance from President Bashar Assad’s fate. Moscow is still keen not to give a United Nations imprimatur that can be interpreted as a licence for Western military intervention.

The Cold War era has gone, but as the world evolves new equations with China growing in importance and the Arab world in the throes of joining the rest of the world in moving towards democratisation, power equations are being redefined. The Gulf kingdoms will support a Sunni dispensation in the region, as they stressed in aiding the Bahrain ruling family against the majority of its Shia subjects. Turkey is a claimant for regional super power status, as is Iran. Israel is a proxy for the US even as its figurative tail wags the dog.

If China continues to throw its weight around, it would hasten a greater strategic convergence among the US, Japan, Australia and India, a quadrilateral arrangement the new Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, spoke about years ago. This will not take the shape of a formal arrangement; rather, it will consist of greater interaction and coordination among the countries on how to meet the Chinese challenge.

Russia is likely to assert its own position as a major power although it needs to put its own house in order by weaning itself from over-reliance on crude oil and gas by restructuring its economy, arrest the slide towards a less democratic system by giving greater space to dissenters and modernise its industrial and technological base.

Africa, with all its problems, is at the doorstep of great changes and is asserting its potential importance. South America has moved away from a North American-centric view to chart its own course, with Brazil already a success story. India, on its part, is seeking to revive its impressive growth rate of the past although internal political compulsions in the form of coalition governments threaten to arrest the pace of development and innovation in high technology.

In short, the world is poised on pregnant developments that will bring new equations into play. The US and Europe will attempt to maintain their sway while Asia in the shape of China and the other emerging countries seek a place in the sun. China is both a major player in the new power equations and a provocation for other power combinations to form to contain it.

Whether we are entering an Asian century remains to be determined but 2013 will bring in its wake new opportunities and challenges for those destined to achieve greater power and others at the losing end of the new great game.

MIDDLE

‘Press’ and ‘Doctor’
by Harbans Singh Virdi

The traffic policeman was puzzled to see me smiling even after I was handed over the challan slip for jumping the red light at a crossing. Now the red light to me is like a red flag to a bull. I am bound to jump it. However, the traffic policeman did not realise that I was drawing some kind of sadistic pleasure from the fact that the traffic drive had led to the rounding up of so many influential people, whose cars were pasted with awesome stickers like the “Press”, “Doctor” and “Army”. Since my car bore no sticker, the policeman thought it fit to dismiss the ordinary case first. I was, therefore, the first one to receive the challan slip as a kind gesture.

Then he turned to the most powerful offender belonging to the Fourth Estate. “Oye, where do you live?” asked the policeman. The man sheepishly gave the address of an editor in the Press Enclave. Not satisfied, the policeman rang up and found the editor on the phone. “But, sir, who is this man who claims to be a ‘pressman?” asked the cop.

“Oye yaar, he “presses” my clothes. The cop handed him the challan slip which ironed out wrinkles from his ego.

Now the cop turned to the man with “Doctor” pasted on his car. “Oye, where do you live?” asked the erratic cop, unmindful of the consequences of dealing with “powerful” citizens. The man gave a Doctors Lane address. When the cop rang up at the given address, the man at the other end identified that he was indeed a doctor who practices in ayurvedic medicine. When enquired about the identity of the offender, the ayurveda doctor disclosed that the man worked as a compounder for him. He was given the taste of traffic violation in no time.

By this time, the traffic policeman had grown bolder. Now he turned to the man in olive green, whose moustaches were curled up in true army style. His car was pasted with the “Army” sticker. But the offender was unruffled at the tragic scene being enacted by the cop mercilessly.

“Oye, where do you live?” asked the unrelenting policeman. “I live in the Army Flats in Sector 47,” replied the offender, fearlessly. Following the same modus operandi, the policeman rang up at the given address and found that it was indeed the house of an Army man. Not giving up, the cop asked, “Is this man also in the Army?” “In a sense he is; he is my orderly.”

Oped Pakistan

IN terms of foreign relationships, Pakistan has been in a rather peculiar position over the past decade. It is a frontline ally in the global coalition against terrorism. Yet, it is acutely distrusted by most of the global power centres and some have even characterised it as the problem child of South Asia.

And so, even as it remains an integral part of the anti-terrorism campaign, it often finds itself under the scanner. The US and a number of other countries have had no qualms about expressing their frustrations with Pakistan, and often hinting at the need for sterner measures against Islamabad.

The 2008-2011 period was exceptionally difficult with Pakistan squarely on the back foot after the Mumbai attacks, dwindling fortunes in Afghanistan (given that it was being seen as the problem there), an unprecedented spike in terrorist violence at home and a series of spectacular episodes in 2011 that embarrassed both the state and citizens of Pakistan.

While most may remember 2012 principally as a year dominated by tensions between Pakistan and the US, there is a very different interpretation in order: this year is ending more positively for Pakistani foreign policy and for developments in the region than the past five years. Notwithstanding the fact that much is still left to be desired in absolute terms, Islamabad and Washington deserve credit for where they are today. Few would have predicted that regional developments would gather positive momentum after a dismal 2011 and the first half of 2012.

And it is not just Pakistan and the US; we are seeing simultaneous gains on Pakistan's eastern and western flanks.

With India, which is more important than any other country in terms of being a potential game changer for Pakistan's future, we are at the highest point since the composite dialogue stalled in 2008.

For hawks on the Pakistani side, the trajectory is not entirely comforting since betterment in ties is essentially taking place on terms India had wanted for years: defer Kashmir, Siachen and other disputes but move forward on trade and soft exchanges.

Is this way forward 'fair', normatively speaking? No, since Pakistan will be meeting India more than half way. But as overwhelming empirical evidence from other cases of enduring rivalries suggests, when military solutions are unavailable and the stronger party is satisfied with the status quo, the weaker, revisionist power has to concede more to break the logjam.

If the goal is better India-Pakistan ties - premised on the logic that this will improve Pakistan's economic fortunes which the country's internal weakness suggests are more urgent than they have been for some time - then this is the most realistic way forward. India simply does not have the type of compulsions to compromise that Pakistan does. Indeed, in the multitude of Track 1.5 and II meetings I have attended in recent years, there is nothing that tells me that the Indians will go out of their way to accommodate Pakistan on disputes.

If Pakistan does not have the luxury to wait it out, it holds that a move to grant India MFN, for India to reduce its non-tariff barriers, laxer investment regimes, movement on visas, etc, are more encouraging signs than hoping for compromise solutions on the disputes. I find Pakistan's current level of expectation from India more realistic than 2007, when statements about a Kashmir resolution being imminent were making the news.

On the Pakistan-US-Afghanistan trio, we have gone from a point just months ago, where Washington and Islamabad were hardly talking, to a situation where the tendency of publicly rebuking each other is visibly in check, where Kabul has reportedly prepared a plan that accords Pakistan its much-desired 'central' role in the reconciliation process, and where, judging by press reports in the West, there is a sudden spike in stories praising Pakistan's efforts after all.

The change on all sides is driven primarily by the fact that time has all but run out on Afghanistan's endgame. It has been true for some time that Kabul and the major external actors, including Pakistan, have wanted a semblance of stability in Afghanistan.

However, they were caught up in a prisoner's dilemma that did not allow them to implement a joint strategy on the way forward. Ironically, the threat of a total breakdown of order in Afghanistan is now so real and near that it has literally forced them to change tack.

This does imply that the improvement in Pakistan-US and Pakistan-Afghanistan relations is reversible. Should they fail to assure some kind of political deal that holds a fragmented and fragile Afghanistan together, the default will likely be a return to the blame game, with repercussions for their post-2014 relations. I suspect this may well end up being the case. But as we have it today, the situation must be seen as a measure of success for each side's diplomatic acumen.

This may also be the point to recognise just how difficult it must have been for the diplomats tasked to steer the situation in a positive direction. The thaw in the Pakistan-US relationship was necessary to get the ball rolling again. Here, what doesn't always make public news are the tireless efforts that have gone on in both the Islamabad and Washington embassies to work through the post-Salala phase.

The fundamental differences have not gone away, nor has the deep mistrust on both sides. But to keep working on exploiting commonalities in the worst of times, as they did, to have come around to new ways of dealing with troubling narratives about each other in such a short time and to have managed key substantive concessions from the other (this has happened on both sides since the summer) without losing track of respective national interests deserve special mention.

In Washington where I have a better vantage point, the discernible shift in the way Pakistan is being mentioned is quite remarkable. The individual relationships that diplomats in both capitals have cemented over the past few months will be extremely valuable as we look to produce more diplomatic victories for all sides over the next two years. — By arrangement with Dawn, Islamabad.

The writer is a South Asia adviser at the US Institute of Peace, Washington, DC.

Window on Pakistan
Is it ultimatum for political reforms?
Syed Nooruzzaman

The PPP-led government in Pakistan faces a new challenge thrown up by a religious leader having a substantial following. He has asked the Asif Zardari regime "to establish an honest and independent body that will introduce electoral reforms and pave the way for free and fair elections". He has given the government three weeks' time --- till January 10 --- to heed his advice. If the government refuses to act by the deadline the religious leader set last Sunday, he would lead a massive march of his followers to Islamabad and launch a Tahrir Square-style agitation against the present regime.

He is Allama Dr Tahirul Qadri, chief of Minhajul Quran. He issued his ultimatum while addressing a huge gathering at Minar-e-Pakistan in Lahore. He expressed the view that the system of governance had completely failed and hence the need for "political reforms". This is being interpreted as an attempt to delay the elections due in 2013. The delay, it is believed, may help Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of the migrants from India. The fact that the PTI and the MQM have supported the Allama's call indicates that his agitation programme is aimed at ensuring that the new government in Islamabad, to be formed next year, is led by Imran Khan's party.

His call for a change in the system has evoked reactions from most political parties and others who matter. Criticising the religious leader for the "hysteric declaration of his agenda", former COAS of Pakistan, Mirza Aslam Beg, said in an article carried by Pakistan Observer that "Tahirul Qadri seems to be at the wrong end of history." In the retired General's view, if people desire a change they will bring it about "through the democratic process".

"The change is in the offing, as a caretaker government takes its place in two months' time. People have no stomach for any kind of undemocratic intervention as Tahirul Qadri so vividly suggests - postponement of elections for the reforms to be carried out and to hold elections at an appropriate time. In fact, he is suggesting a Bangladesh model…."

According to a news analysis by Abrar Saeed, published in The Nation, "the mega show of power … has rung alarm bells in the echelons of power". The PPP-led government has begun preparations to meet the threat posed by Allama Qadri and those behind his move. The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) is also feeling uneasy as a result of this development. The Punjab government, headed by Shahbaz Sharif of the PML (Nawaz), may use its might to prevent the threatened march by four lakh people to Islamabad from Lahore by Allama Qadri's followers.

According to The News, "The real cat that emerges from Dr Qadri's bag then is that the new caretaker government (to be formed for conducting the coming polls) must include all stakeholders; he named the judiciary, the armed forces and other major political parties, but did not include himself in the list. That may probably be the crux of his exercise and could also be the ultimate bargaining point to stave off a standoff in Islamabad that has the potential to seriously threaten the system."