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Gujarat POLLS
Between the boast & bombast, the reality |
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Divided house of Congress
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The Modi effect As Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi hopes to romp home a third consecutive time, the Congress is struggling to put up a meaningful fight. The Opposition is banking on proving Modi’s development claims hollow. Does the voter buy it? December 20 will tell By Manas Dasgupta
In the unlikely event of Modi failing to secure a clear majority in the 182-member state Assembly, the GPP could emerge as the king-maker to form the next government.
Party pulse
Even though senior party leaders like spokespersons IK Jadeja and Vijay Rupani have been denied ticket, the murmur of protest is feeble and rebellion unheard of within the BJP rank and file. They are aware of the fate of former rebels who returned to Modi, pleading for permission to return to the party fold, or worse, face the danger of being lost in political oblivion.
Making amends
A decade later, the communal massacre of 2002 is no more a poll issue. Modi’s “sadbhavana missions” reach out to the Muslims and promise modernisation of “madarsas” to improve the quality of education and help them join the mainstream, besides enhancing the skills of small-scale workers. Springing up an imaginary “conspiracy” by the Congress to install Ahmed Patel, political adviser to Sonia Gandhi, as Chief Minister if the party was voted to power, Modi is asking voters if they want “Ahmed Miya Patel” as Chief Minister. The answer is in the negative. A strong critic of Modi, Dr Pravin Togadia, international president of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), predicts “surprise results” for the BJP if the party did not return to the Hindutva platform. For obvious reasons, Modi cannot use the communal plank under the prying eyes of the Election Commission, but by making repeated reference to “Ahmed Miya Patel” — he had made “Miya Musharaff” his plank in the last elections — he has left no one in doubt what he was hitting at. The Congress is also avoiding any reference to the 2002 carnage, apprehending that any attempt to link Modi with it, particularly after he was given “clean chit” by the Supreme Court-appointed Special Investigation Team, could cause a backlash from the Hindus against the party. Eye on top post
The BJP's projection of Modi as the potential Prime Minister if the NDA was voted back to power in the next parliamentary elections, is also serving Modi's cause. The people of Gujarat would hate to lose Modi, but at the same time it would be a matter of pride for them if the son of the soil was elevated to the top spot — the second from the state after Morarji Desai. Modi is unlikely to leave the state in a rush unless he is certain he would be made Prime Minister. In such an event, Revenue Minister Anandiben Patel or Minister of State for Power Saurabh Patel is likely to emerge as his potential successor. But known for springing surprises, Modi may pick up someone who would be loyal to him and have no following of his own to take over. Gujarat voters are also aware that for him to stake claim to prime ministership, he would be required to perform even better than the 2007 elections, when the BJP won 117 seats. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency factor seems non-existent. Considering the disadvantage the Congress faces due to the UPA's rather lackluster performance, it will surprise no one if Modi walks away with an even larger share of seats than the last elections, unless the cast factor unleashed by the GPP, and to some extent the Congress, in the selection of candidates takes centre stage in deciding the outcome of the elections.
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Between the boast & bombast, the reality
The Congress says foundations for the majority of big industrial projects were laid before Modi's advent. The still-incomplete Sardar Sarovar Dam project on the Narmada — considered to be the lifeline of Gujarat to boost agriculture and solve water issues in the state where rainfall is scanty — was initiated during the Congress regime. It claims most good roads, ports and power plants were in place even before the BJP came to power the first time in 1995, and yet Modi has come to be identified by the people as the “Vikas Purush” (man for development). In comparison to his Bihar counterpart, Nitish Kumar, Modi has often been criticised for taking credit for something he has not done, but an average Gujarati does not agree, such is the impact of his propaganda machinery, his detractors allege. “Modi has created the right atmosphere for Indian and foreign companies to invest in Gujarat to take the state on the path of progress”, is the argument forwarded by pro-Modi elements, disregarding the fact that the Congress was out of power in the state at the time of economic liberalisation in the country. His biannual Vibrant Gujarat Investors' Summit, which is due in January, make tall claims of investment promises, but voters believe that the money has actually started pouring in and all their woes would soon end. How “soon” is that, no one knows, Modi's critics say. Hard task master It will be unfair to deny Modi credit. Due to his stranglehold on the state administration, the decision-making process has become faster and the implementation of the schemes speedier, a great attraction for investors. They know they have to “please” only one person, no one else matters in the state administration. Modi could bring the Rs 2,200-crore Nano project from West Bengal to Gujarat in three days flat, offering Tata Motors an interest-free bonanza of over Rs 9,000 crore, with staggered repayment in 20 years, an assistance no other Chief Minister would have dared to offer without facing resistance from his own government. Its coming to Sanand near Ahmedabad brought cheers to the people in the dry region, where land prices have shot up nearly 10 times and created the right atmosphere for other automobile majors to make a beeline for Gujarat. Automobile hub It has given an opportunity to Modi to boast that he has “promoted Gujarat into the world's biggest automobile hub.” He has also brought about a near-revolution in encouraging solar power generation by setting up Asia's biggest solar park in the barren stretches of north Gujarat. His novel idea to set up solar panels along the 86,000-km Narmada canals, both to generate power and reduce water evaporation, has won him accolades from many quarters, though implementation of the investment-intensive project is still a far cry. The annual “krushi melas” have helped ignorant farmers learn about the modern techniques of farming and increase agricultural production when the rain God has been merciful. For the poorer sections of society, Modi hit upon the idea of “garib kalyan melas”, gathering beneficiaries of existing Central and state government welfare schemes under one roof and giving aid due to them through his ministers. No new scheme was launched nor was any extra rupee spent on providing a sewing machine to a widow, a kitchen set to a poor family or even a bicycle to a poor student, but the beneficiaries returned from the “melas” cheering the Modi government for the aid that had not reached them for years. The Congress clamour that Modi was using Central government schemes to take credit for himself has fallen flat. His detractors allege that even while taking advantage of the Central government's assistances for various development projects, be it employment guarantee scheme for the rural poor, drip irrigation schemes for farmers or the Bus Rapid Transit System (BRTS) corridors in major urban areas, Modi missed no opportunity to lambaste the Centre for its alleged “step-motherly” treatment to the state. He has successfully painted in the minds of the people of Gujarat that the Congress was the devil standing between them and development, they allege.
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Congress leadership in the state has been weak and has failed in its strategy to counter the Chief Minister. It has been unable to match Modi's aggressive attack on the UPA government that it stood for corruption and inflation. The Gujarat Congress would also have to bear the burden of the not-so-impressive performance of the Central government. And naturally, Modi has used it as his main poll plank. “Voting for the Congress is to vote for corruption and inflation,” he says in his campaigns. Making a last-ditch attempt, the Congress launched an all-out campaign with an eye on the “aam aadmi.” The party has promised the moon — “own your own house” scheme for the urban poor, free house site plots for the rural poor, jobs for the unemployed and writing off outstanding farm loans, among others. But in a bid to allow enough time to the voters to “absorb” its promises, the Congress made the mistake of announcing its policies too early, giving BJP ample time to checkmate the schemes and announce even better deals for the poor in its manifesto. Ticket trouble The recent turmoil within the Congress over the selection of candidates, leading many to resign and some to switch loyalty to the BJP, may also cost the party dear. The decision of the Congress high command to disallow ticket to those who had lost two consecutive elections has not only shattered the party's united face, but also left in the lurch many senior leaders, including former Deputy Chief Minister Narhari Amin, who represented the powerful Janata Dal (Gujarat) group formed by former Chief Minister Chimanbhai Patel; former junior union minister and AICC secretary Naresh Raval, who is from the “original” Congress; and pradesh Congress secretary Girish Parmar, who joined the Congress along with another former Chief Minister, Shankersinh Vaghela, when he merged his Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with the Congress about a decade ago. Amin, who quit the Congress along with many of his supporters, including Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) spokesman and party loyalist Jayantilal Parmar, has joined the BJP. Girish Parmar has also joined the BJP and will contest from the Dani Limda constituency in Ahmedabad. Raval and his supporters are licking their wounds, promising not to campaign for the party. Even Vaghela, chief of the campaign committee, had to fight hard with the high command to retain his ticket. Both the erstwhile JD (G) and the RJD groups are feeling alienated.
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With
Modi has a firm control over the party and its activities. He made sweeping changes in sitting candidates during the last few elections, including state Assembly, parliamentary and municipal corporation polls. He had even refused ticket to all of the 100-odd sitting members of the ruling BJP in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation. But this time, he trod carefully and retained most of his sitting MLAs, denying any opportunity to Keshubhai Patel to absorb disgruntled elements within the BJP.
Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party makes the contest triangular. Though he hails from the Patel community, which has held the key to government formations in Gujarat, his party doesn’t really pose a serious challenge. At the same time, it will dent the vote share of the BJP and Congress. Patel, who was Chief Minister of Gujarat in 1995 and later 1998, had quit the BJP to launch his party. 
