|
|
|
|
|
Too much, too late
Foreign policy issues |
|
|
‘Udaan’ needs wings
Beyond Arab Spring
Miracle that happens daily
Chinese inroads into Bhutan worry India
China rebuilds defence ties with India
|
Too much, too late Sunday’s Cabinet reshuffle, third and probably the last of the Manmohan Singh government before it faces the electorate in 2014, threw up quite a few surprises. Rahul Gandhi again preferred party work to a government job. Salman Khurshid got a promotion instead of a sack.
The message: no more giving in to India Against Corruption campaigns. This may help BJP chief Nitin Gadkari breathe easy. But as a face-saver the Congress can point to the resignation of Tourism Minister Subodh Kant
Sahai. Also unexpected were three Punjab and Chandigarh MPs landing in key ministries: Ashwani Kumar Law, Manish Tewari Information and Broadcasting and Pawan Bansal the crucial Railways, which had usually been grabbed by MPs from West Bengal or Bihar as part of coalition bargaining. Kapil Sibal has lost what he has been passionate about: education. His aggressive style invited opposition to almost every legislation he had pushed. His successor, Pallam
Raju, is a US-educated engineer with an MBA and the number two, Shashi
Tharoor, is also bright and suave. Ideally, the government should induct talent from wherever available. But in a democracy it is also expected to give a fair representation to various regions. Geographically, eastern India has been neglected. Andhra Pradesh has been given an excessive representation, perhaps to counter the Jagan Reddy influence in 2014. But similar electoral considerations have not prevailed in the case of
Maharashtra. The induction of Deepa Das Munshi and Adhir Chowdhury may irritate Mamata Banerjee but may not reverse the electoral trend in West Bengal. The young brigade of Rahul Gandhi is on the rise. Performance has been rewarded in the case of Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya
Scindia. Both have got independent charge of Corporate Affairs and Power. But no Rahul aide has been made a Cabinet minister. Dr Manmohan Singh has now got like-minded people at the helm of the economic ministries. S. Jaipal Reddy was a misfit and has been shifted from Oil to Science. On the whole, it is a fairly integrated team, a “combination of youth and experience”, but with some regional imbalance. Now it should focus on governance, which ultimately is what matters. |
|
Foreign policy issues The latest Cabinet reshuffle has led to Salman Khurshid leaving the Law Ministry to replace External Affairs Minister SM Krishna, no longer a member of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Cabinet. The change of guard in the External Affairs Ministry does not mean that Krishna was not doing well and that his replacement will infuse a new life into the ministry which faces formidable challenges today.
The new minister, of course, has the advantage of being much younger than his immediate predecessor. But this factor may help Salman Khurshid only to a limited extent. He will have to show dynamism and clear understanding of foreign policy-related issues to come up to the expectations of people within the country and the world at large. The slight change in the attitude of Russia following differences with India on nuclear energy-related issues and investment plans of telecom multinational Sistema needs to be taken up on a priority basis. The other crucial areas which call for greater attention are West Asia, East Asia and South Asia. West Asia is undergoing a metamorphosis in the wake of the Arab Spring. At the same time, the region is scared of Iran’s determination to acquire nuclear weapon capability. It is not easy to protect India’s interests in that volatile part of the world under such circumstances. The region is sharply divided into two camps, led by the countries (Saudi Arabia and Iran) which represent two major Islamic sects. Whatever India does in West Asia will have its bearing at the home front, affecting the electoral prospects of the Congress that leads the ruling UPA coalition. India is surrounded by countries which have major grievances against their big brother. None of these South Asian nations can be described as friends of India. Of course, the case of Pakistan is an altogether different matter with which India is engaged in a peace dialogue process. Even Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar have better relations with China than India. How to increase India’s presence in its neighbourhood is bound to pose a big challenge to the new minister. He will also have to find innovative ideas for reaping the advantage of growing uneasiness in most East and South-East Asian countries owing to the over-aggressive attitude of China in dealing with regional issues.
|
|
|
‘Udaan’ needs wings The name, ‘Udaan’, was ambitious. The plan seemed promising too. But the scheme launched in March this year to train the youth in Jammu and Kashmir in skills that may find them industry placements simply failed to take off.
One of the reasons being cited is not enough awareness regarding the scheme among the unemployed youth, who are reimbursed travel, board and lodging expenses for the training. However, there are obviously other gaps too, which is evident from the fact that none of the mere 150 youth that were trained also succeeded in finding a job. There are more than a lakh of unemployed graduates and postgraduates registered with various employment cells in the state. While the state and Central governments have duly decided to go back to the drawing board to look at the scheme afresh in conjunction with the participating industries, the challenge has to be seen in the national perspective too. The state has many genuine problems, but a lot of these are common with the rest of the country, only are seen — and addressed — as special, given the peculiar political sensitivities involved. Joblessness is one such issue. Lack of skills needed by the industry — rather than lack of jobs — is the foremost challenge in most states, especially in the northern half of the country. A lot of new institutes and universities dedicated to technical education have come up, yet they are unable to provide the needed skill set and also lack in quality. The relevance of courses and syllabi, as well as the quality of the faculty, need to be looked into immediately. Jammu and Kashmir, of course, needs the extra attention. A whole generation of graduates has come up there that was born after the strife broke out in the late eighties. Having grown up seeing only stone-pelting, teargas and cane charges as the tools of interaction between the state’s residents and the entity called India, they would understandably suffer from a trust deficit. They have to be exposed to the benefits of being part of a real and functional democracy. And equipping them to determine their own destinies is the surest way to do that.
|
|
|
The sincere friends of this world are as ship lights in the stormiest of nights. — Giotto di Bondone
|
Beyond Arab Spring West
Asia – the Middle East and North Africa to the world – presents a contrasting picture nearly two years after it all began with a vendor who committed suicide by self-immolation in a small town in Tunisia out of frustration with how the authorities treated ordinary citizens. It then spread to the Arab heartland, Egypt. Libya’s was a rockier road and Libyans got rid of the long-serving bizarre autocrat Muammar Gaddafi with the help of Europeans and the US by means of air power. Syria has occupied much attention in recent times because an entrenched Assad dynasty is hanging on to power, despite belonging to the minority Alawite community, as opposed to the majority Sunnis. Opponents of the regime are disunited, short of heavy arms and infiltrated by Al-Qaeda elements although increasingly supplied with weapons by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with Turkey both as host to Syrian refugees and the conduit of weapons. The Syrian regime has unchallenged air supremacy, with Turkey failing to obtain support for its proposal to carve out a part of Syria to house regime opponents. Clearly, President Bashar Assad’s days are numbered, however long he manages to survive. The United Nations and Arab League mediator, Mr Lakhdar Brahimi, has suggested a four-day ceasefire between regime forces and its opponents on the occasion of the Muslim feast of Eid al-Azha, and if it is implemented faithfully by the two sides, he may have something to build on. But the longer the civil war goes on, the greater the number of those killed and the three neighbouring states of Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey are each hosting more than 100,000 Syrian refugees and counting. Libya is in a corner of North Africa, but Syria is an important Arab country, and inevitably the strife is spilling over into Lebanon, which has been desperately trying to rebuild a country of fractious communities and sects after the 15-year civil war. Fears of a return to chaos have been revived by the recent murder of the Lebanese intelligence chief in a car bomb which also killed others and wounded close to a hundred. Although no proof of Syrian involvement has been found, the popular perception sees the inevitable Damascus hand. Syria, in fact, has been the traditional de facto overlord of Lebanon, and it was the murder of the Lebanese leader and former Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri, in a massive car explosion that led to a public outcry forcing Damascus to withdraw its troops long stationed in Lebanon. Lengthy investigations pointed the finger at Syria but in a fuzz typical of the region, nothing happened. Syria still has considerable intelligence resources in Lebanon, which it considers as within its sphere of influence. The Lebanese political structure is based on apportioning seats and government offices to the different confessional groups but the country is divided into pro- and anti-Assad forces. The greatest supporter of Assad is the Shia Hezbollah, which won veto power over government decisions the last time round. Hezbollah is funded and armed by Iran. But having gone through the torture of the civil war, all parties seem to be trying to avoid reverting to the bad old days. Much, of course, depends upon the progress of the Arab Spring in the Arab heartland, Egypt, run by the Muslim Brotherhood leader, President Mohammed Morsi. There is growing frustration among sections of his countrymen, particularly the young, over lack of progress in improving living and working conditions and the direction the President’s party is taking in the framing of the constitution. But the President has shown some pragmatism in grappling with the Herculean problems he has on his plate and the hope is that he will not tilt the future constitution too much in the direction of religious orthodoxy. It is nobody’s argument that getting countries swept by the Arab Spring to progress will be anything but difficult and each country has its own set of unique problems. What is striking is the role Syria’s neighbours are playing, in particular Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The latter two are batting for the opposition by supplying arms and funds to disparate elements, with the United States urging caution because of its fear that they might fall into wrong extremist hands. However, Turkey’s role is both intriguing and significant. It was not so long ago that Turkey had loudly proclaimed that its policy was “zero problems” with neighbours. It was, of course, the rare country in the region to maintain good relations with Israel. But the Israeli relationship went for a six after a Turkish initiative in taking supplies of food and medicines to the blockaded Gaza Strip met with a muscular Israeli response leading to the deaths of eight Turks, including a Turkish American. But the most dramatic change was in the Turkish-Syrian relationship, which used to be cordial. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was offended because President Assad did not heed his advice to change course in how he was treating his majority Sunni opponents. This estrangement between the two leaders quickly led to antagonism between Turkey and Syria, with the former becoming the most vociferous supporter of a regime change in Damascus, hurling proposals such as a no-fly zone in Syria which would necessitate outside military intervention. It did not fly because the United States has no appetite for entanglement in another Muslim and Arab country. Apart from refugees, Turkey is hosting high-profile defectors from the Assad regime, surprisingly few in number. Is the Arab Spring turning into the Arab Winter, as some sceptics are suggesting? It would be foolish to come to hasty conclusions, and the important point to remember is that after much of the Middle East and North Africa has been ruled by dictators of one kind or another, the set of revolutions, once the fuse was lit, will take time to resolve. The marvel is how the peoples have risen after generations being ruled by authoritarian leaders pretending to be their people’s saviours. In fact, the world, particularly the West, had given up on West Asia as a fertile ground for the shoots of democracy to sprout. But they have
sprouted.
|
||||||
Miracle that happens daily Miracles
fascinate the imagination of human beings. Something which is beyond the power of lesser mortals happens at the behest of privileged mortals. This results in awe and admiration. The godmen master the art of producing articles such as watches and rings by the sleight of their hands. People become their followers and with the passage of time they don the garb of devotees. Life moves on at a snail’s pace or it gallops like a well-fed horse according to the state of the mind of the miracle seekers. I am reminded of the poem ‘One Word More’ by Robert Browning wherein Moses performs miracles so as to appease the desires and to fulfil the wishes of the people in distress. He smites the rock and spreads the water for the thirsting crowd that had mocked him earlier. Even after drinking the water and wiping their mouths, they are ungrateful — ‘But drought was pleasant’. Faith and doubt go hand in hand in assessing the miraculous performances. Personally speaking, I like the story element in the accounts of the happenings that lead to miracles. It is necessary to suspend disbelief willingly while enjoying the smooth flow of narration. Still in the heart of hearts I wish that what has been told is true and not merely a figment of imagination. Lucky escape from a disaster is termed as miracle and rightly so. This sort of thinking makes life worth living. How else can the human beings come out of the rigmarole of happenings more unpleasant than pleasant. Dreams too play a part in mitigating the sufferings of the persons who encounter challenging situations at frequent intervals. Even nightmares have a therapeutic effect as these help in shedding apprehensions that haunt the consciousness of the individuals. One wakes up in the morning to find himself safe and sound, and heaves a sigh of relief. Creative writing can also be termed as a miracle as it is the product of heightened sensibilities. To produce something that is not present is not less than a miracle. Myths relate the miracles that the gods and goddesses perform at leisure. Human mind absorbs the symbolic meaning of certain illogical twists in the tales of antiquity. Nothing can be denounced as the divine occurrences are supposed to indicate the will of the Lord. In this manner, human mind is the arena where battles are fought, crowns are tumbled and then peace is restored. To my mind what we call a miracle is the amrit (nectar) that is attained after sagar manthen (churning of the ocean). The victory of good over evil is a continuing process and it cannot be performed only once and for all. Ultimately it can be said, ‘the stars shine still’. Whatever is beyond comprehension is a miracle. Mind is ever in search of the meanings of signs and symbols. The poets have tried their best to know what eludes the grasp of their imagination– ‘was it a vision, or a waking dream?’ The mystery is certainly at the heart of all miracles. Having been appreciative of the myths, legends and miracles which have connectivity with the past ages, I am skeptical of such like things happening in the modern age. It seems to me that nothing extraordinary can happen in this workaday existence. From sunrise to sunset there is hectic activity in all the spheres of life. Then the world sleeps and in the words of Coleridge, ‘The frost performs its secret ministry.’ Indeed something mysterious happens at a secluded but fully illuminated chamber at the dead of night where the words perform their secret ministry of leaving their prints on the blank papers. In the morning, at about 6 or 7, the miracle that I have been contemplating for so long, happens when a bundled up newspaper strikes against the windowpane or knocks at the door
unmistakably.
|
||||||
Chinese inroads into Bhutan worry India Strategic concerns about China arise from its emergence as the most influential player in Asia with the ability to shape the future balance of power that could be detrimental to Indian interests.
Despite a dominant Indian desire at cooperation rather than competition with China, the vexed and unresolved boundary issue together with China’s continued military modernisation and incremental upgrade of its military posture in Tibet that enable rapid force deployment, backed by logistical capability and communication infrastructure, complicates the relationship. China’s attempts at strategic balancing in South Asia by forging military and economic ties with all of India’s neighbours, some of whom have fractious ties with New Delhi, and by expanding its naval power in the Indian Ocean Region further exacerbate bilateral tensions. Latest manifestation of this is the Chinese attempts to build inroads into Bhutan. Chinese Premier Wen Zia Bao and Bhutanese Prime Minister Jiome Thinley`s meeting on the sidelines of Rio +20 Summit was a result of Bhutan’s ambition for a non permanent seat in the UNSC in 2013, which China appears to have exploited. Implications of Chinese moves Chinese success in Bhutan together with moves in Nepal, where it is enhancing its economic, military and infrastructural footprints will have grave strategic implications for India. The landlocked Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has borders of 470 km with Tibet and 650 km with India. India has a special relationship with the Bhutan having signed a Treaty of Friendship way back in 1949, which was updated in 2007, that provides among others unilateral guarantee for the defence of Bhutan. While China officially does not recognise Bhutan and has no diplomatic relations, it does conduct periodic talks to reduce border tensions. China claims 300 square miles of Bhutanese territory, mainly in the Chumbi valley, the Torsa Nala, and some areas opposite Haa (western Bhutan) along with some grazing areas in the north. The strategic scenario on India’s northern borders will get greatly compounded if Bhutan and Nepal were to fall into the Chinese sphere of influence. Bhutan sit’s at the centre of the Sino-Indian eastern sector, and as long as it remains neutral, any Chinese military adventurism in the Chumbi valley and Tawang would largely be through attritional mountain offensives invoking Indian reaction in self defence. However, if Bhutan and Nepal were to come under Chinese influence, the precarious land route along the Siliguri Corridor, a virtual ‘chicken neck’ for the north eastern states, would become vulnerable to being cut-off by a determined Chinese push – isolating the entire eastern sector. Hence Bhutan’s neutrality is extremely important and absolutely imperative as it forms a barrier and buffer to Chinese desires of expansion to the south towards the Siliguri plains. Two other issues are important. China is rapidly developing road infrastructure opposite Chumbi Valley, including plans to extend the rail network from Lhasa to Zangmu and Shigatse, and possibly to Yadong at the opening of the Chumbi Valley. These developments point to Chinese attempts at upgradation of operational posture. What should be of concern to India is the fact that in the event of hostilities it is unlikely that China will respect Bhutanese neutrality. The defence of Bhutan therefore is irrevocably linked to the defence of India. Strategic perspective An essential ingredient of the China’s forward policy, Chumbi Valley, a vital tri-junction between Bhutan, India and China, is significant as it is just five kms from the Siliguri corridor. It is also of geostrategic importance to China as it shares borders with Tibet and Sikkim. It is this geo strategic context that has made New Delhi sit-up and take notice of recent Chinese overtures to Bhutan. China and Bhutan have held a range of boundary talks and are moving towards a joint field survey to harmonise the reference points and names of the disputed areas. The survey focused on disputed areas in the western region constituting pastoral lands of Doklam, Charithang, Sinchulumpa and Dramana. The focus on this sector is important due to its close proximity to Chumbi Valley. Bhutan and Nepal are critical cards for China against perceived Indian military maneuvering. It needs to be underscored, however, that the China- Bhutan reconciliation can only come with the settlement of the boundary issue where China seeks the Dhoklan plateau overlooking Chumbi Valley while making tradeoffs in the grazing grounds in North Bhutan. The moves in Bhutan together with rapid Chinese inroads into Nepal would greatly contribute towards China’s desire to establish a continental bridge through Tibet. Bhutan on the other hand would provide the PLA with the requisite launch pad to cut off the Siliguri Corridor either as pre emptive action or in concert with larger territorial designs. Trading off some territory in the north to Bhutan in lieu of the pastoral land of the Doklam plateau, therefore, appears to be a pragmatic step towards achieving the larger strategic objective. Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka are countries where India has ceded strategic space to China through acts of omission and commission, land locking it from North and East. Restoration of diplomatic relations between China and Bhutan therefore would inevitably constitute a strategic shock for India. India’s strategic calculations Strategically, Bhutan sits between Sikkim in the West and Arunachal Pradesh in the East. It’s neutrality is an important construct in providing depth to the Chumbi Valley leading to Siliguri Corridor and Tawang -- the centre of Tibetan spiritual abode in India. Should Bhutan diplomatically ally with China, these two vulnerabilities would be greatly exposed with all the attendant military ramifications. Access to Chumbi Valley through Bhutan, in addition to the traditional routes would severe and isolate the north east in the event of a war with China. Simultaneously, Bhutan would open the western flank of Tawang--Tenga sector, exposing the threat to the plains of Assam. Indian economic investments in Bhutan are exemplified by Bhutan becoming a hydropower exporter to India. By 2020, India expects Bhutan to export 10,000 MW of power to India. There are also a large number of other economic programmes afoot. India is considered a trusted friend and an ally in Bhutan. At present, there is no anti-India lobby in the country and, given the geographical imperatives of Bhutan, India is likely to remain the most important partner in its foreign policy calculus in the coming years. Bhutan also leverages India’s role as its strategic partner. While geopolitics shapes the bilateral relationship in a major way, one needs to take note of the fact that Bhutanese society is changing fast. With the youth constituting almost 50 per cent of the total population, a new generation is emerging in Bhutan. As evident in the India--Bhutan power cooperation, Bhutan is getting increasingly assertive in negotiating various issues with India. India needs to address these growing nuances, which could soon emerge as visible sores in India--Bhutan bilateral relations. In initiating diplomatic ties with China thus, Bhutan will have to make some stark strategic choices. Replacing India with China would mean economic and ecological trade-offs in a balancing strategy aimed at maintaining harmonious relations with its two big neighbours. the bigger issue is how far Bhutan is ready to become a pawn in the Chinese designs in Tibet and against India. The ultimate formula to settle the boundary dispute would dictate the extent of this engagement between the two. Bhutan`s strategic choices are thus of great geostrategic and military concerns to India. How it makes them would depend on the range and depth of Indo--Bhutan relations. The above discourse need not only be seen from the perspective of geopolitics alone. Is China pushing reconciliation with Bhutan to convert it into a continental bridge linking with the Bay of Bengal, of course through connectivity with India to create another Silk Route? In this regard the recent resolution of boundary dispute between China and Tajikistan to create an access to Afghanistan in pursuit of its economic investments provides a possible window into Chinese designs. In case China is able to develop close political and economic ties with Bhutan and incrementally bring it into its circle of influence, it will be a win–win situation for China and a matter of grave concern for India. The issue for India is that as a sovereign independent state Bhutan has the rights to pursue an independent foreign policy commensurate with its larger interests. While being closely aligned with India it has sought to pursue a policy of neutrality. Will the Chinese overtures change this? How should India respond what are the options and policy choices before it, is the dilemma that India needs to deal with. The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the School of Geopolitics, Manipal Academy of Higher Education
|
|
China rebuilds defence ties with India The
visit, weeks prior to the 18th National People’s Congress scheduled to be held in October, raises issues about both the timing and purpose of the visit. Was it a confidence building exercise or a mere performa interaction at the minimal to signify resumption of high level defence interaction? As the Chinese media highlighted, the visit was to build trust, by resumption of military dialogue, military exercises as also to promote exchanges in non traditional security fields such as maritime cooperation. Going specifically by military-to-military contacts between the two countries a lot is happening. Two joint naval and counter-terrorism exercises ahv ebeen conducted, with discussions for a possible joint air exercise. The hiatus in bilateral ties came about when China, in an extremely provocative step, denied a visa to a senior Indian military officer and made provocative statements over the prime minister’s recent visit to Arunachal Pradesh. The ties have since recommenced. The Fourth China–India Defence Dialogue in New Delhi last year has been followed by senior level military exchanges and Indian and Chinese warships visiting each others’ ports. The defence ministers discussed issues ranging from developments in Asia–Pacific, including South China Sea, wherein the Indian minster was familiarised on the Chinese approach to the standoff and its aspirations on conflict resolution. Apparently, the Chinese conveyed their growing concerns about US’ strategic shift to the region after a decade, with an eye on American attempts to make India the lynch pin of regional strategic engagement. The post—2014 situation in Af–Pak was reportedly discussed, particularly growing radicalism and terrorism, given Chinese concerns on developments in Xinjiang, where they are pushing hard to reduce links with Pakistan and improve economic links with Central Asia and Russia. The exchanges point to disquiet within the Chinese establishment and strategic community about developments in Asia–Pacific and the post-2014 Af–Pak scenario. Concerned by the evolving geopolitical situation in Asia, and a possible standoff with the US, the Chinese seem to be trying their own rebalancing act to prevent India lodging itself in the US camp. Indian policy of strategic impendence and autonomy also appear to have convinced Chinese leadership that if handled properly, India can be wooed into a balancing act where a judicious mix of pragmatism and nationalism pushes Sino-Indian relations forward without compromising its core interests. Signs of such a thinking appeared during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Beijing, where Chinese vice premier Li Keqiang told Indian foreign minister SM Krishna that Sino–Indian ties would be the most important bilateral relationship in the 21st century. Chinese scholars also affirmed that while there were multiple stakeholders, it was China and India who would need to take the major lead to maintain regional stability. The Chinese defence minister’s visit could be described as both, to affirm bilateral defence ties, lower stakes for confrontation as also to induce India from becoming a tool in US rebalancing strategy. Following the visit, it will be important to follow the trend lines of the trajectory of bilateral relations, for India to shape its policy responses. —
A.S.
|
|
| HOME PAGE | |
Punjab | Haryana | Jammu & Kashmir |
Himachal Pradesh | Regional Briefs |
Nation | Opinions | | Business | Sports | World | Letters | Chandigarh | Ludhiana | Delhi | | Calendar | Weather | Archive | Subscribe | Suggestion | E-mail | |
