The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Controversy’s Didi
Not ready to tolerate cartoons, dissent

Her temper gets misplaced as often as do her vowels, landing her in fresh controversies. She continues to forget that her victory over the invincible Left came through the democratic route. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has been trying to stifle this very democratic tradition in her growing intolerance for even a shred of suspicion where she smells dissent. And she smells it often. Perceiving a rope to be a snake, Didi’s ire fell on a poor working man, a patient of tuberculosis, who dared to question the state government’s policies for farmers at a rally at Belpahari in Paschim Midnapur district. The man was arrested two days back and sent in judicial custody for 14 days. His bail has been rejected. Reason: he was dubbed a Maoist by Didi. It’s a different matter that Didi enjoys ‘Z’ class security which could not have been penetrated by a question thrown at her.

This time around, her staunch supporters too have shown discomfort about her growing intolerance for dissent. Their criticism borders on ridicule now, something Didi does not take kindly to. This became more than evident in the cartoon controversy. Incidentally, the timing of her fresh bout of temper could not have been more accurate.

On Monday, the West Bengal Human Rights Commission recommended departmental proceedings against the police officers on whose behest arrests of a Jadavpur University professor and his neighbour were carried out for circulating cartoons of Didi through the e-mail. The recommendation is a warning to Didi’s temperamental way of functioning. This time her temper also costs the state exchequer, as the commission has ordered the state to pay Rs 50,000 each as compensation to the professor and his neighbour. Didi had termed the e-mailing of her cartoons as a ‘cyber-crime’ and an attempt at ‘character assassination’. As democratically elected Chief Minister of a state, Didi would do well to remember that any denizen of her state enjoys as much a right to freedom of speech as does she as Chief Minister.

Bollywood beats
No harm in grooving to the sound

Long live Bollywood, and not just because it has clocked 100 years of its inception. Even the British Prime Minster has inadvertently acknowledged its all-pervading impact. Never mind that the compliment he paid is backhanded. Bollywood aficionados who love, drink and sleep Hindi cinema can take heart that few can escape the spell of their all-consuming passion. Not just in India, where it defines and dictates the collective consciousness, now Bollywood’s influence seems to have spread far and wide all the way to the UK. Why else would British Prime Minister David Cameron consider it a threat to competitive sports? And why would he ask schools to stay away from Bollywood dancing and, instead, focus on sports?

No doubt, India dances better than it runs. Just ask our Olympians! Every nook and cranny of the country resounds to the sound of Bollywood beats. “Dance India Dance” is not just the name of a television reality show but the unanimous refrain of the whole of India where parents are only too eager to push toddlers as little as five on to the dancing stage. But that Great Britain’s Gen Next could be distracted away from sports to Bollywood dancing comes as a revelation. Never mind that the logic is as befuddled as the script of many a Hindi blockbusters.

For far away from the Indian shores, Bollywood owes its popularity to the Indian diaspora more than anybody else. While the Indian films’ market share of the global trade is no more than 1 per cent, Australians couldn’t care less that at least 60 films have been shot Down Under. Sure enough, there are some diehard Bollywood buffs sprinkled all over the world. The online repartees to the British Prime Minister’s remark are quite a spirited defence of the Indian dance form. Many also believe that Indian dance is a physical activity. But in Mr Cameron’s lexicon perhaps dance, especially the Indian variety, is just a dance, a frivolous activity. And it’s not just the East and the West that shall never meet, but dance and sports too. Unless, of course, future Olympic committees, in their wisdom, include Bollywood dance as a competitive sport.

Thought for the Day

A happy family is but an earlier heaven. — George Bernard Shaw

ARTICLE

More ostrich sightings
Hindutva can’t make much headway
by B.G. Verghese

The monsoon session of Parliament got off to its traditional noisy start with much ado about nothing. It was preceded by three events: a reshuffle of portfolios, with Chidambaram displaying a welcome new dynamic as Finance Minister and Sushil Kumar Shinde starting off on a clean slate as the new Home Minister. Prior to that, Advani made the very reasonable point that he did not expect either the BJP or the Congress to lead the next government after the 2014 polls as neither was likely to win more than 100 seats in a highly fragmented result. He was met by sulking silence from his colleagues but got an earful from the Shiv Seva for faltering on giving a clarion call for a Hindutva platform, even as Keshubhai Patel and others formally cut loose from Modi’s BJP in Gujarat.

Hindutva can never make much headway in plural India and the continuing upwelling of disadvantaged classes from below will continue to fragment the polity for another 20-30 years until all of Bharat joins India. So, coalition politics is here to stay, with shifting formations contending for preference and power. This could be messy but should not be confused with federalism as such. More consensus building and cross-party consultation will be needed rather than unstructured, headlong decentralisation that could truly balkanise the country. Those who do not see this have clearly failed to understand India’s current social dynamics.

Then there was Anna, who like Humpty Dumpty not only had a great fall but a jolly fallout with Team Anna,which he dissolved for deciding prematurely to go political. Not to speak of Baba Ramdev who, like Tweedledee, has stolen Anna’s not so nice nor new rattle. He has threatened indefinite protest unless the government concedes three demands — pass even a less than perfect Lok Pal Bill if necessary, bring back the black money salted away abroad, and have independent panels for the selection of the CEC, CVC, CAG and CBI heads.All this in three days, or else! Clearly, Part Two of the Ramdev tamasha is unfolding.

The sheer mendacity and overweening vanity of the Anna crowd was manifest in the charge that the coincidental countrywide grid-failure was staged to divert attention from the Kejriwal fast and that the government’s refusal to negotiate further withTeam Anna was a diabolical plot to let them die fasting! Sad to see that the lead drummer at this charade was Gen V.K. Singh (retd), now poised to join Ramdev, who has done great harm to the Army by his unacceptable conduct in and out of uniform.

The dismissal of the erstwhile chief of RAW’s Beijing Bureau for allegedly threatening to reveal serious differences with headquarters on operational issues is another matter for great concern. This follows the dismissal of another Joint Secretary-level RAW officer who escaped the net and fled to the US some years ago even as he was under surveillance for working for the CIA — the subject matter of a recent tell-all fictionalised book by Amar Bhushan, himself a retired RAW officer, titled “Escape to Nowhere” (Konark). The suspect was tracked for months, caught red-handed for photo-copying top secret papers and carrying them home for transmission to his handler. The man was not immediately confronted and nabbed as the investigating officer felt that it would be desirable to discover his handler. However, sensing the net closing on him, the suspect fled to Nepal and made his way to the US with the help of his American handlers under the very nose of RAW which closed the chapter after some feeble protests.

This ostrich-like attitude repeats itself. More recently an agency was both suspected of and a victim of unauthorised bugging in the Finance Ministry. The see-no-evil, let-sleeping-dogs-lie manner in which the V.K. Singh episode was totally mishandled by the Defence Ministry and the government and the subsequent on-going hearings with senior uniformed personnel in court, is shameful and has done great damage to morale. No surprise that jawans are turning against their officers as recently happened at Samba in Jammu and earlier at Nayoma in Ladakh.

As far as RAW, the IB, the Revenue Intelligence, the CBI and other agencies are concerned, a review committee under L.P. Singh had long back recommended that they be placed under an oversight committee which might review their operations and programmes from time to time. This was never acted upon and remains one means of moderating incompetence and excesses and ensuring a measure of accountability.One does not know if the Naresh Chandra Committee on higher security management addressed this issue; but it is disconcerting that that report is still under wraps

Then just last week, all Nagaland MLAs and MPs called on the PM and new Home Minister under the banner of the state chief minister with an offer to resign to pave the way for a party-less government, including underground elements, that might bring peace and resolve the Naga conflict. It is one thing to chafe at the seemingly interminable “peace talks” in which the Centre has engaged, but all those sympathetic to their cause must realise that the Nagas are co-sharers of Indian sovereignty. No separate sovereignty is possible, though greater autonomy within the Indian commonwealth can be negotiated. Likewise, Nagalim or Greater Nagaland, is not possible at the cost of vivisecting old-established historical entities like Manipur and Assam. Yet there are creative non-territorial ways in which the underlying objective of economic, political and cultural togetherness can be largely achieved.

The tragic Kokrajhar eruption again is in principle not a cut and dried Indian vs Bangladesh immigrant issue or a problem of rising Muslim numbers in Assam. The Muslim rate of growth in Kokrajhar district has declined during the last decade. As argued previously, the root problem is the persistent failure to promote development by neglecting floods that have hit Assam hard, resulting in low risk agriculture, low investment and poor infrastructure. The on-going agitation against the Lower Subansiri dam and other projects is largely misplaced. On the other hand, we need to enforce better and more honest border management and stimulate two-way trade, transit and investment with Bangladesh to create jobs on both sides of the border in order to stem the tide of illicit immigration. A counter-guarantee for investments in the Northeast and bolder and more rapid opening up to Myanmar and the further East are also necessary.

In the midst of all these events, Kanda, a suspect-Minister from Haryana, has been absconding for days, evading a police summons in a case of murder. He is bargaining for anticipatory bail while on the run. This is not the first time high-ranking persons have absconded to evade the law while trying to “fix” things. The indulgence shown by them is amazing. And what to say of the PWD Minister in UP, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s own brother, who told a bunch of officials that if they worked hard they might steal a little but not behave like dacoits. The man should be hounded out of public life.

How long shall we, ostrich-like, bury our heads in the sand?

MIDDLE

Independence Day
by Rajan Kashyap

Ours is a country of young people. Most of us did not experience the period of British India. Our picture of the bygone era is shaped by second hand impressions. These are the verbal recollections of the older generation, the written word, as recorded by Indians and foreigners alike, and especially dramatised accounts of events of that era. Colonial India has become the stuff of legend. Intact, however, is the vision of a robust India, united across diverse communities and social groups. The reality today is somewhat different.

For the government, Independence Day is an occasion to advertise and take credit for the economic progress of the country. In his address from the Red Fort the Prime Minister recounts many signal achievements of the party or parties in power. Opposition parties question the legitimacy of all such claims. On this national day, the triumph of a free, vibrant democracy should have been a graceful thread binding together the declarations of all political parties. Sadly, it is not. Public debate is dominated by name calling of adversaries, with trenchant criticism of their very motives. On a day meant for rejoicing ill-tempered public squabbles and discordant statements by top national leaders divide, rather than unite the country.

On this day, the educated youth seize and enjoy a reprieve, but their merry-making is pure escapism, unrelated to any lofty ideals of national pride and freedom. The future holds for them little assurance of a career linked to merit. The young men and women live on hope. Their seniors muddled through, they believe, and so might they. A vast body of the unemployed, and unemployable, young generation is convinced that its talents would yield fruit only in developed countries of the western world. Ironically, they are desperate to migrate, often illegally, to the shores of the very nation that had once held them in subjugation. So many of this generation cheerfully accept lowly jobs abroad rather than toil at home. A peculiar independence, indeed!

The gloom is lifted, mercifully, by none other than the youngest section of our citizens, the children at school. Come Independence Day and every school in the country, in town or village, decks itself in the national colours, conducts a public function, and pledges itself to the India of its dreams. In even the most cramped of spaces within the school walls, an assembly of fresh-faced cherubs sings the national anthem with full throated enthusiasm, smartly joining the march past to salute the flag. Many institutions render in dramatic form snippets of the heroic national struggle for freedom. Their eyes bright and cheerful, actors and audience bubble with optimism. On this day they learn, and are reminded of the ideals that fired their grandparents.

In enacting and witnessing inspiring scenes from history, many youngsters inevitably imbibe some part of the same idealism. Thankfully, they seem as yet not consumed by the pervasive cynicism of the time. Would that their innocence survives, and rubs off on their elders! We wait expectantly.

OPED ECONOMY

India has lessons to learn
The burden of achieving 9 to 10 per cent growth for India has to be shared equally between public policy and the private sector; and both should work together for a strong self-confident economy
Y.V. Reddy

Commodity markets have started experiencing volatility in prices. High inflation hits the poor the hardest. Photo: AFP

We recorded an average growth of close to nine per cent for about five years immediately before it was interrupted by a global financial crisis. The global financial crisis that erupted in 2008 has since turned into a global economic crisis though a collapse of the global financial system and depression in global economy, have been avoided. The economic crisis is showing signs of turning into a series of political crises in a number of systemically important countries and regions.

In some parts of the world, there is a serious spillover into social tensions. There is considerable disagreement among economists and policymakers about immediate policy measures needed to bring the global economy into a normal state. Simultaneously, there are many fundamental issues that are being considered in regard to the post-crisis global economy among which, in my view, three are critical.

Some fundamental issues

First, some observers feel that the on-going crisis is the beginning of collapse of capitalist system. However, they are in a minority. There are some others who feel that there is virtually nothing wrong with the capitalist system, and that the boom and bust cycle are a part of the self connecting capitalist system. They cite successes of China and India in recent years as a result of greater market orientation in support of their view. Hence, they feel that nothing fundamental should be done to dilute the capitalist system and capitalism will survive and thrive in its present form. Some of the believers in capitalist system feel that there has been a failure of regulation and larger doses of capitalism are called for. Those who believe in this approach of 'no need for any change in the capitalist system', or 'make it more market friendly', are also in a minority. A majority of the observers feel that some basic changes are needed in the capitalist system whereby the regulatory systems as well as the economic relationship between different countries undergo significant changes. They also feel that such changes are consistent with the fundamental nature of capitalism which keeps reinventing itself to thrive under evolving circumstances.

We should, therefore, expect some systemic changes in the way capitalism functions, but the basic feature of market system may not change. Hence, India like other countries will have to learn lessons about the reforms that are appropriate to the on-going developments in the global economy, consequent upon the current crisis.

Short-term prospects

There is considerable analysis of the short-term prospects for the global economy by multi-lateral agencies, academics and market analysts. By drawing from these, it is possible to make some broad generalizations about the short-term prospects.

First, the global economy is likely to register sluggish growth in 2012 and, perhaps, marginally better with considerable uncertainties in 2013. Relative to advanced economies, the developing economies had initially withstood the adverse impact of the global financial crisis and registered impressive recovery and growth, but most of them have since begun experiencing pressures on their growth prospects from several angles.

The policy headroom available now for many developing economies in terms of fiscal and monetary policy is somewhat limited. However, the effectiveness of tools of public policy available in advanced economies is considerably more dented than that in developing economies. While some of the problems faced by developing economies may be pre-dominantly attributed to global conditions, in some others, such as India, it may be pre-dominantly attributed to domestic conditions.

Second, the advanced economies continue to face deflationary pressures because of sluggish demand in their domestic economies. The developing economies, on the other hand, are facing inflationary pressures. These pressures are partly caused by the considerable global liquidity and capital flows in some countries, while in some others, it is due to supply rigidities. Overall, however, the developing economies do not appear to be constrained by deficiency in domestic demand, though they are impacted by deficiency in global demand.

Third, the economic recovery, however modest, has not been accompanied by any relief on the employment front. Unemployment continues to plague many advanced economies. In some developing economies, there is upward pressure on wages, while in a few the sluggish export-demand is moderating the growth in employment and causing some sectoral unemployment.

Fourth, the commodity markets have started experiencing volatility in prices. The excess liquidity injected by advanced economies to provide stimulus to their economies is finding its way to finance speculation in commodity markets. At the same time, the possible moderation in demand due to pessimistic outlook on growth prospects is having a dampening influence on the commodity markets. Volatility in these markets is likely to continue in the short-term.

Scarcity of safe assets

Fifth, the financial markets are experiencing considerable uncertainties and several paradoxes are appearing. Both the stresses in Euro Zone countries and the polarized political economy in the U.S.A. are at the core of the continued uncertainties. There is a scarcity of, what may be described as safe financial assets since the government debt papers of some advanced economies are not free of credit risk (that is, the servicing of debt in full may not be certain). A considerable part of government borrowing programme in advanced economies and, to some extent, in select developing countries, is being funded indirectly by the central banks. The forex markets have been experiencing volatility. The main reason for this is the fact that U.S. Dollar continues to be a safe haven, though its medium and long-term prospects are under some stress. It is reasonable to expect that the financial markets will continue to display considerable volatilities and uncertainties in the near future.

In brief, globally coordinated public policy actions in response to the crisis have averted the collapse of the financial system and the depression in the global economy on account of the recent global crisis. They served the immediate interests of all concerned nations and markets. The subsequent uneven recovery created some problems for global coordination. More recently, the tradeoffs between short-term and long-term became acute in different degrees in different countries. Overall, the short-term prospects for the global economy are not optimistic, and in any case, are characterized by considerable uncertainties with potential for volatilities in several markets.

For India, the short-term policy challenge is to equip itself with adequate policy tools to cope with the uncertain prospects around a pessimistic outlook in the global economy, while managing the domestic expectations of a rapid restoration of pre-crisis levels of growth and inflation. The policy challenge for the short-term is compounded by less than optimistic sentiments in the market place in India.

Faster growth achievable

Since the global economic environment in future, post-crisis, is likely to be less benign than what it was when India recorded a nine percent growth for a few years, it is obvious that special efforts are needed to restore the rate of growth. I submit a few of the critical components for a strategy to achieve the goal of nine to ten percent annual growth in output. First, the level of domestic savings in India should be restored to pre-crisis levels. In addition, the domestic savings should be enhanced to make-up for the possible difficulties of obtaining net foreign savings on an assured basis in future, recognising India's vulnerability to shocks. This would imply wooing domestic savers who, in any case, finance over ninety percent of investments.

Second, assuming that the aggregate demand will not be constrained, climate for investment should be conducive to domestic investors on an assured basis. The role of small and medium businesses should be recognised not only for their potential for employment intensity but also for their significance for vertical economic and social mobility, particularly for disadvantaged sections.

Vulnerable to shocks

Third, in addition to removing supply inelasticities, improvements in productivity will be critical not only for containing inflation but also for ensuring that India has capacities to pay for all its imports through exports, over the medium term. India is vulnerable to shocks on account of fuel and food, and the demonstrated unwillingness of global financial markets to fund large current account deficits (say beyond three percent of GDP) warrant an acceptable ceiling of such deficit at three percent of GDP in any year. Experience during the high growth in pre-crisis period has shown that current account deficit close to one percent is achievable. However, in an uncertain global environment characterized by not so smooth shift in economic and political balances, maintaining global competitive efficiency at all times is essential for this purpose.

Fourth, strengthening the capacities and morale of the public sector is essential to overcome the most important bottlenecks in Indian economy, namely, social (education, health, etc.) and physical (power, ports, roads, urban facilities, etc.) infrastructure. In particular, Indian society seeks a sense of fairness in public systems. Finally, the private sector has to demonstrate its commitment to acceptable standards of governance and ethical conduct, and win the trust of Indian society.

Excerpted from the 17th Prem Bhatia Memorial Lecture delivered by Y.V Reddy, a former Chairman of the RBI, on August 11 in Delhi