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A deal with Maoists
Together on climate change |
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Setback for BJP-SS
Sustaining recovery
We still have role models!
US steps up assistance to Pakistani
army
India can be education hub
Windows 7 may help jump-start tech sector
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A deal with Maoists
Any deal with people who have declared war on the state and challenged the country’s Constitution is not just dubious but is bound to keep haunting the government. The West Bengal government, therefore, set a dangerous precedent this week by succumbing to Maoists’ pressure to secure the release of a police officer abducted by them. By doing so the state government has also made itself vulnerable to similar deals in future.
The CPM government’s weak-kneed response is even more glaring in the context of two police constables who were abducted by the Maoists earlier and who officially remain ‘missing’. A Maoist spokesman Koteshwar Rao alias Kishenji has virtually ruled out the chances of the constables being alive by declaring that ‘Maoists do not keep hostages for so long’. The state government’s capitulation is, therefore, even more disappointing. The CPM government can take consolation from the fact that the Maoists did not press it too hard and demand the release of top-ranking Maoist leaders arrested in recent months. At the same time, by not opposing the bail for the 21 ‘elderly tribals’ and by its failure to produce any evidence of subversive activities by them, the government has conceded that in its war against Maoists, it has merely been hitting soft targets so far and arrested tribals who may not have been guilty of the string of more serious criminal offences they were charged with. By demanding the release of the arrested tribals, Maoists clearly hoped to win over the local tribal population and paint the state government as the oppressor. Even as Maoists keep taunting the government through hysterical television channels and through brutal killings, the government’s only response so far has been to hold the threat of an offensive. But the rebels’ attack on the Sankrail police station, where the police failed to fire a single bullet while Maoists killed two unarmed policemen, reveals how ill-prepared the police force is. It is time the government took steps to prove this growing perception wrong.
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Together on climate change It is wise of the Indian and Chinese governments to have signed a five-year agreement to jointly fight climate change and coordinate their stands during international climate negotiations. Coming in the backdrop of angry diplomatic exchanges on the border issue, the agreement is a welcome whiff of fresh air. Much ado has been made of the differences in perceptions on the border tangle. The climate agreement therefore offers a great opportunity to repair some of the damage in mutual trust.
The Joint Working Group that has been set up will soon hold annual meetings alternately in China and India to discuss respective domestic measures and implementation of related cooperative projects. The climate change agreement will be welcomed by the developing nations for the bargaining power they would command as a group at the critical Copenhagen summit in December being held to work out a possible multilateral climate change treaty to supersede the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012. Considering that there is a strong possibility of arm-twisting by the western powers to bring the developing countries to agree on fixed targets for reduction of carbon emissions, the agreement between the two Asian powers to work in unison will serve as a deterrent. Significantly, while the western powers are crying themselves hoarse claiming that they are going all out to cut carbon emissions while India and China are refusing to make on stronger commitments, data released this week by the United Nations has shown that greenhouse gas emissions from the rich nations increased 12.8 per cent between 1990 and 2007. This only shows that the western nations that are the original polluters, who played havoc with the world’s ecological balance through reckless industrialization bringing it close to a catastrophe, need to do a lot more than paying mere lip service to the need to curb gas emissions. That the newly-industrializing countries like India and China have a responsibility not to repeat the mistakes inherent in the western style of growth is, however, beyond question. While the two Asian giants must resist fixed targets for reduction of emissions, it would be imprudent to duck the issue of emission cuts and slow down economic development for satisfying the western demands.
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Setback for BJP-SS
The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party combine in Maharashtra has won the Assembly elections for the third consecutive term despite heavy odds — the Mumbai terror attack, price rise, drought and farmers’ suicides and power cuts. The Congress and the NCP bagged 82 and 62 seats respectively this time as against 69 and 71 respectively in 2004. Congress president Sonia Gandhi kept the alliance with the NCP intact despite some party leaders’ appeals to the contrary. She kept the decision on this issue pending till the last minute and convinced the NCP to settle for a lesser number of seats. As the NCP contested only 112 of the 288 seats, its score of 62 is impressive. Now when the details are known, it appears that the ruling coalition would have won the elections comfortably even if there were no splitting of votes between the Shiv Sena and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. The BJP and the Shiv Sena have to do introspection over their miserable performance. The Shiv Sena got 44 seats, the BJP 46 and the MNS 13. The Marathwada region, said to be the saffron alliance’s fortress, has rejected the BJP- Shiv Sena combine. The BJP led by Gopinath Munde has been badly mauled. The Shiv Sena won just seven seats in this region while the Congress (18) and the NCP (13) have each won more seats here than in the Mumbai-Thane region. The MNS won a seat in Aurangabad, a part of Marathwada, but spoilt the BJP-Sena’s chances in only four seats here. In Vidarbha, the BJP-Shiv Sena won fewer seats than the Congress-NCP because of its failure to capitalise on the farmers’ suicides. The media hype on Raj Thackeray is unwarranted. People have squarely rejected his Marathi Manoos theory. And why blame him for the Shiv Sena’s defeat? Although the MNS has opened its account with 13 MLAs in the 288-member House, it is no force to reckon with in Maharashtra. Creditably, the Shiv Sena’s focus this time was on development, but it did not cut much ice with the people. |
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Tit for tat is the law of the brute, of unregenerate man. To answer brutality with brutality is to admit one’s moral and intellectual bankruptcy. — Mahatma Gandhi
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Sustaining recovery
The news of India’s industrial growth picking up is indeed heartening as one imagines more people will get back their lost jobs. A 10.4 per cent growth in industrial output shows that many sectors of the economy are turning around especially the rise in capital goods production from 1.7 per cent in July to 8.3 per cent in August 2009 is significant. A rise in industry’s demand for capital goods means that inventories are being depleted faster than before leading to production expansion plans. It means that we are heading for a ‘V’ shaped recovery. But can India sustain the recovery if other countries especially the US economy is still struggling to revive? The latest IMF forecast for the world economy is rather gloomy and says that the world economy will contract by 1.1 per cent in 2009 and will grow at 3.1 per cent in 2010. Global recovery will thus be sluggish. The US unemployment rate is going on rising which is an indicator of the depth of human misery due to the financial crisis and a broad based measure of unemployment in the US now is at 17 per cent. Somehow China has managed to keep its economy going through its huge stimulus package and people abroad also view India as one of the survivors of the global crisis though India’s problems are different from China’s and hence a direct comparison is not possible. For example, China has climbed up seven notches in the ranking of countries according to the Human Development Index in the latest Human Development Report and is now 92nd whereas India’s ranking remains the same at 134th. China does not face the same kind of serious human development problems as India faces nor does it have as many people going hungry as in India. Although GDP growth matters, the over 6 per cent that is expected for India this year is not sufficient to tide away India’s current problems of wide divide between the consumption patterns of the rich and the poor. Such a huge difference is not sustainable and can only breed discontent and insurgency and spread the Naxalite movement. It shows that much trickle down has not taken place in the past when India experienced 9 per cent growth between 2005 and 2007. Food prices are still high and the Union Finance Minister has asked for food imports. The strong rupee would mean that the proposed imports may be less expensive but there is a limit to which India can indulge in imported food items to feed its population. Our link to the global economy is through exports which is essential for the economic recovery because not only do exports contribute 14 per cent to the GDP but are a source of employment for millions of workers. And most export industries are still not doing well. With the rupee appreciating 4 per cent against the dollar this year, they are likely to experience some further contraction.
However, the crucial point is that the export demand may not be picking up fast because the industrial countries have not gone back to their old pattern of consumption. Americans in particular are reeling under their personal debts and are saving more than ever before. The stimulus packages did work for sometime but they have created huge problems with the fiscal deficits that may not allow them to be continued in the future. The colossal American public debt of $142 trillion is weakening the dollar which has become a beleaguered currency. And though the Chinese have huge reserves in dollars, they are thinking of using their yuan for trading with their close partners. With falling dollar, there will be problems world wide as demand for imports from the US will decline further. In India, the government’s fiscal stimulus and various other income sops like a hike in dearness allowance and the Pay Commission awards helped to boost consumer demand for goods and services. But such handouts may not be possible in the future because of the ballooning fiscal deficit which is at an unsustainable 11 per cent. Unless the government finds ways of increasing its tax revenue, it will be constrained to give more and more fiscal stimulus packages. In times of slow sales volumes the government’s collection of revenue is likely be less than before. Only if the private sector flourishes the government can raise adequate revenue that would go towards programmes to help the poor specially when there is widespread unemployment and high food prices. The government has helped the poor in many ways especially through the NREGA and PDS and the National Rural Health Mission, but the effectiveness of these will depend on the continuation of these programmes full steam. For the private sector in India to become vibrant, the world economy has to be back on rails because only then it will have access to funds to grow. The revival of export demand is equally important. Among the main importers of Indian goods and services, the Euro area is most important but unfortunately it is not coming out of recession any time soon and there is high unemployment in several countries including Spain, Italy and Germany. Though the euro is currently high against the rupee, the EU too may not expand its import demand. The bottom line is that India’s growth story has been fuelled by private investment and demand in the past and it is private investment which has been falling in an uncertain world scenario. Without a boost to corporate sales, there cannot be a rise in the corporate incomes and revenue and there cannot be a significant change in the employment situation. So far most of the growth stimulus has come from the public sector spending. It has now to come from private investment and spending. For private investment to flourish, it is also important that the demand for capital is met at reasonable rates. If the RBI is forced to take the step that other countries are today contemplating, namely raising the rate of interest to ward off inflationary pressure due to the high amount of liquidity in the system (from a big inflow of foreign institutional investment), then investments will contract further, reducing the incomes and taxable base of companies. Policymakers have hinted that the RBI will probably not meddle with the rates in the forthcoming monetary policy but one cannot rule out of the rates inching up again. On a positive note, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, India Inc. has come forward with fresh investment proposals amounting to Rs 330,000 crore between July and September 2009. In a big country like India, the domestic market can indeed boost industrial growth on the strength of its own demand. But people’s spending power cannot depend on government’s largesse for long and will have to come from a vibrant private sector. Its fate, unfortunately, will depend quite a lot on the revival of the global economy which is still sluggish.n
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We still have role models!
Even at a time when questions are being raised about the integrity of some of the judges of the superior courts, we still have men who have adorned the highest office in the apex court and are worthy of emulation. I am talking about Justice M.N. Venkatachaliah, former Chief Justice of India, who also served as Chairman of the National Human Rights Commission and Chairman of the Committee to Review the Working of the Constitution. Justice Venkatachaliah has been a role model for judges and lawyers alike for his honesty, integrity and unfailing courtesy in court and outside and for his erudition. I have had the pleasure to serve as a Member of the National Human Rights Commission when he was Chairman of the Commission. I would like to share a few incidents which show the sterling qualities of the Judge. I had invited Justice Ventatachaliah to an Awards function in Delhi after he had retired and settled in Bangalore. We sent him an open return air ticket — Bangalore-Delhi-Bangalore. A week before our Awards function, he was appointed Chairman of the NHRC and he arrived in Delhi on an officially paid ticket. When I called on him at the IIC where he was staying, he handed over the return ticket to me saying that the government has paid for his travel from Bangalore and the ticket could be returned. Since it was an open ticket, a lesser mortal would have retained it and used it on some subsequent personal travel. An organisation with which I was associated gave him an award of Rs 50,000 for his outstanding contribution in promoting and protecting human rights. He did not retain the award money and forthwith issued a cheque for Rs 50,000 for a voluntary blood bank in Delhi. Once he asked me if I knew any jeweller in Delhi. A friend’s son-in-law was a known jeweller and I said if I could be of any assistance. Justice Venkatachaliah told me that his son was getting married in a few months and they wanted silver utensils (thalis, katoris, glasses) for the wedding. He told me that they had old dented silver utensils and other silver pieces which they would want to dispose of and pay the balance money for new utensils. As we went to Dariba Kalan to the jewellers, Venkatachaliahs selected thalis, katoris and glasses after assessing the size and weight. They wanted eight thalis, eight glasses and 32 katoris. The jeweller’s men, after assessing the value of old dented silver pieces, quoted an amount of Rs 62,000 extra to be paid for the required utensils. Both husband and wife were taken aback and after discussing for a few minutes in Kannada, they asked the shop owner if he could make six thalis, six glasses and 18 katoris. Here is a man, a former Chief Justice of India, who is happy and content with the little that he had earned and saved from the high offices that he held. Readers would be able to understand the unsaid word. When I served as Governor, Uttarakhand, Kumaon University invited him to deliver the Convocation Address. I invited the family for a short vacation at Nainital as my guests. He and Mrs Venkatachaliah arrived in Nainital by the university car from Delhi. I asked him where were his son, daughter-in-law and grandson. He told me that they were coming by an overnight bus. Justice Venkatachaliah declined an offer by the university for a second car to bring his son’s family to Nainital. When he assumed office as Chief Justice, he presided over a Bench which reviewed an order passed by an earlier Bench which had caused the entire Supreme Court bar to raise their eyebrows. The earlier order was set aside on review and the party had to shell out several hundred crores as customs duty and penalty. Men like Justice Venkatachaliah do the nation
proud. The writer is a former Governor of Uttarakhand and Sikkim |
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US steps up assistance to Pakistani army
The U.S. military is providing intelligence and surveillance video from drones and other aircraft to the Pakistani army to assist in its week-old offensive in South Waziristan, marking the deepest American involvement yet in a Pakistani military campaign, according to officials. The assistance includes imagery from armed Predators that defense officials say are being used exclusively for intelligence gathering in the offensive. Providing such information fills gaps in Pakistan’s spying arsenal, officials said, and helps show how the Obama administration intends to intensify pressure on insurgents in Pakistan, even as the administration overhauls the U.S. military strategy in neighboring Afghanistan. The cooperation also reflects a significant shift for Pakistan, which had previously resisted U.S. offers to deploy unmanned Predators in support of Pakistani military operations. Recent militant attacks have shaken the Pakistani government, convincing them of the need for help in taking on militants. On Thursday, gunman opened fire on a Pakistani army jeep in Islamabad, killing a senior officer and his driver. The current offensive, marked by heavy fighting, is seen as critical for the U.S. and Pakistan. South Waziristan is the base for Pakistani militants who have mounted a string of attacks across the country and it is an important refuge for al-Qaida. “We are coordinating with the Pakistanis,” said a senior military official, one of several who confirmed the operations on condition of anonymity. “And we do provide Predator support when requested.” For months the U.S. and Pakistan have been sharing information from Predator flights in the volatile border regions, but until now the Pakistanis had not accepted help for their major military operations. Pakistan turned down American surveillance and targeting aid during the offensive in Swat that began in May. The use of military drones in Pakistan is separate from the ongoing Predator campaign being carried out in that country by the CIA. Over the past 18 months, missile strikes from CIA operated drones have killed at least 13 senior al-Qaida or Taliban operatives inside Pakistan’s tribal zone. U.S. assistance is deeply controversial in Pakistan, which wants to avoid the appearance that it is dependent on the American government or military. The two governments have had difficulty in sharing some information in the past. American officers have accused Pakistan officials of tipping off targets about upcoming strikes. But a senior Defense official said that in the Waziristan offensive, U.S. and Pakistani interests are closely intertwined. “The Pakistanis are getting more and more serious about the militant threat,” said the senior official. “You are going to see more sharing as trust develops and assurance develops that they are using the information for effective operations against al-Qaida and the Taliban.” A Pakistani military official acknowledged the intelligence cooperation, saying the U.S. is helping to provide a “composite picture” of the enemy and the terrain in which it is embedded. The Pakistani official and a senior U.S. official said the offensive followed high-level talks between U.S. and Pakistani military leaders. Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the top U.S. and allied commander in Afghanistan, had flown to Islamabad to work out coordination on the border and intelligence sharing issues before the Pakistani military campaign began, the Pakistani official said. Similarly, Pakistani officers, including the commander of the nation’s air force, have held meetings with Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and other U.S. officials in Washington in recent weeks. White House deliberations over McChrystal’s recommendation to send up to 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan have received heavy attention in recent weeks, but the Obama administration also has examined how to provide more effective assistance to Pakistan. The administration is moving toward re-balancing its focus between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Key civilian and military leaders, led by Vice President Joe Biden, have argued that Pakistan receives insufficient U.S. attention and resources. The Pakistani offensive is principally aimed at a militant group that has carried out the recent series of deadly attacks inside the country, and was formerly led by Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud, killed by a CIA air strike in April. U.S. officials have pressed Pakistan to expand its military campaign to other Taliban groups and hope the Pakistanis will next turn their offensive to North Waziristan, used as a haven by Afghanistan’s Taliban factions. The Pakistani military official said there is “no discrimination” in the Taliban groups that the Pakistani military will pursue. Still, U.S. officials said they have seen no indication that the latest campaign has or will target militants linked to Afghan Taliban leaders such as Mullah Mohammed Omar and Jalaluddin Haqqani. Some defense analysts said it was critical for the Pakistanis to consolidate their gains in South Waziristan before moving on to other territory. “We would like them to extend the offensive,” said Stephen Biddle, a military historian and defense analyst. “But we would also like them to hold what they clear. It might or might not be a good call for them to add territorial goals, when it is most important for them to hold what they take.” Frederick W. Kagan, a defense analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, argued that helping the Pakistanis retake South Waziristan is critical to the stability of Pakistan and to the U.S. campaign against al-Qaida. “It is conceivable that we could look back at this South Waziristan operation as a turning point in the war against al-Qaida,” Kagan said. “This has been the safe haven for these guys.” American officials said the new cooperation is due, in part, because the U.S. has effectively broadened its outreach to Pakistani officials beyond Ashfaq Kayani, the Pakistani army chief of staff. The U.S. believes if it can get Pakistan to accept more help, the Pakistani offensive will be more effective. Immediately following the Swat operation, Pakistani leaders talked about an offensive in Waziristan but it did not happen. The military’s munitions needed replenishing, analysts said. Earlier offensives by the military against insurgents in Waziristan did not last. After operations in 2003 and 2004 came cease-fires that allowed Taliban forces to regroup. Pakistani leaders have been accused of downplaying the militant threat, but the Pakistani official described a new level of resolve. “There is a national urgency to do away with this militancy once and for all,” the official said. Pakistan has superior human intelligence on the ground, where the country’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence has cultivated networks of informants among militant groups. Pakistan also has a limited ability to intercept cell phone calls and other transmissions. But “any type of imagery would be of use to the Pakistanis, either from Predator or other means,” said another senior Defense official. In particular, the official said, Pakistan has sought intelligence “on locations of the enemy, resupply routes, resupply activity ... in real time.” Military experts said the Predator surveillance video could help ground units with targeting militants and gain better awareness of the threats around them. “The drones are not wonder weapons,” said Biddle, the military historian. “But in this situation, a relatively conventional ground offensive, the Pakistanis want the ability to see over the hill, and in that, U.S. drones can be a lot of help.”n — By arrangement with
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India can be education hub Over the years prominent citizens in various fields have been lamenting over the brain drain from India. They were actually pointing out the lack of opportunities for the educated in India for more paying jobs and were forced to seek more lucrative careers outside the country. There was hardly a realisation that the brain drain was in a way a compliment to the education system in India as it confirmed the quality of education that was able to mould minds and prepare them to successfully participate in any competition with any race in the world, especially in countries that were known for their quality education. For years, India has been an importer of education as more and more young men and women were forced to seek higher technical education abroad since facilities were non-existing in India. Some might have preferred as a better stamping on their certificates that could open doors for lucrative future careers, but the majority had turned to American and British Universities in a belief that they would receive quality education to prepare themselves for a meaningful role in serving the humanity. Despite its frequent criticism, the quality of education has got better in India, especially since some institutions of excellence in engineering, medicine and business administration have made a mark of their own to attract world attention and draw multinationals to the Indian shores to recruit best brains emerging from these institutes. There have been four distinct waves in the field of higher education. The first was of Indian students travelling to other countries for higher education. The second phase was of twinning when foreign universities moved to export channels. The third phase was linkages with Indian institutes of foreign universities. The fourth phase started when foreign universities began establishing their campuses in India. However the stage has reached when India can turn from being an importer to an exporter of education even to the West as it has already become an exporter in medical tourism with a large number of patients of foreign origins landing in India for treatment. It has also led to the creation of more health care facilities. India has 257 universities now but few are recognised as world class universities and hardly figure in the top 200 universities of the world. Despite the University Grants Commission granting autonomy to the universities, state intervention remains the sore point. India has a great potential of becoming an education hub to attract students from the developing and developed countries because of the costs involved. There is no need to emphasise the economic viability of such a development. The American and British education system is being subsidised by students of Indian and Chinese origins. Indian universities too can achieve economic viability and avoid dependence on state financing. The five institutes for business administration courses and eight institutes of technology that are known the world over give a confidence that India can achieve its potential. There is no dearth of land needed for setting up campuses that can rival other known and established campuses in the Western world. India has a vast bank of qualified and capable teaching faculty. Politicians have messed up education by introducing the concept of reservations in the name of social justice. They would argue that this would divide the education system, but it has already been in parts for five decades. Private unaided schools have been imparting quality education while no attention has ever been paid to the quality of education in aided and government schools. Scores of research papers have proved how the public sector has failed in this regard. The Human Resources Development Minister has been gradually converting education into an industry by his plans to set up nearly a dozen institutes on the pattern of the existing ones in the next five years. But he needs to seek approval of other parties to launch India as a potential exporter of education. And it would eventually benefit Indian students as well. Given the resource constraints, there is need for making university education self financing. It can be done without adding too much burden on Indian students by attracting more students from abroad.n |
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Windows 7 may help jump-start tech sector Can Windows 7 repair Microsoft Corp.’s reputation and trigger enough sales to pull the technology sector out of its financial funk?That seemed to be the overriding question as Microsoft on Thursday officially took the wraps off of its latest operating system, much of which was already public knowledge with more than 8 million testers having used it since January. With every release of a new Windows operating system, thousands of technology companies could always count on Microsoft to deliver its own economic stimulus as millions of consumers rushed out to buy faster computers and companies splurged on more powerful computer systems. This time, the recession has pulled the plug on spending, leaving many to wonder how much of a jolt Windows 7 can deliver to a beleaguered sector. “Windows 7 represents a significant opportunity for many companies,” said Richard Shim, an analyst with technology research company IDC, which forecast that global PC sales in 2009 would be flat at best, “but it’s coming at a time when the industry is struggling.” Much rides on the success of Windows 7. Microsoft is counting on it to lift its sales, which fell last fiscal year for the first time since the company went public in 1986. Computer makers and software companies are praying that Windows 7 will set off a wave of demand for their products and services. Even consumer electronics companies see Windows 7-based computers as a way to make their devices sexier as gateways for entertainment programs on-demand. “Windows 7 may not be the second coming, but it is something that the entire industry has been waiting for,” said Roger Kay, an analyst with Endpoint Technologies who has done consulting for Microsoft. “With almost all corporate buying of technology on hold for the past year, Windows 7 finally gives them something they can sink their teeth into.” Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s chief executive, certainly hoped so. “Today is an important day for the computer industry, certainly for Microsoft and I hope perhaps even most importantly for all of the customers around the world,” Ballmer said during the company’s event. According to a study conducted by IDC and paid for by Microsoft, for every dollar the Redmond, Wash., company generates from selling Windows 7, other companies stand to reap more than $18.50 by selling products and services related to the operating system.n — By arrangement with
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