O P I N I O N S

EDITORIALS

With Agni and Prithvi
Pak nuclear challenge has to be met
THE successful launch of two advanced versions of the Prithvi-II nuclear-capable missiles on Monday with a strike range of 350 kms marks another achievement for scientists. The two missiles hit their respective targets with clockwork precision.

Haryana does better
But Maharashtra voters remain indifferent
Tuesday’s elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh were by and large peaceful. Except the continued Naxalite disturbances in Maharashtra’s Gadchiroli district and stray incidents in Ambala City, Kaithal and Meham in Haryana, elections in the three states passed off peacefully, reflecting once again the people’s maturity.

• Thought for the Day

ARTICLE

The Pokhran blast
Let’s not belittle our scientists’ achievements
by S.K. Sharma
Controversies in science are as old as science itself. This is due to unending quest of scientists to unravel the mysteries till their solution is universally accepted. Scientific literature is full of controversies. As a result, there are genuine differences of opinion, professional rivalries, religious dogmas or political compulsions. However, truth has always prevailed.

MIDDLE

Hockey at Lahore
by V.K. Kapoor
I was deputed by the MHA to accompany the Indian hockey team to Lahore for the World Cup in 1990. The security concerns were high. We reached Lahore by a PIA flight. From the tarmac, we were driven straight to the hotel, where we were to stay for 15 days. The officer in charge told me that it was a “commando operation” as he handed us our passports. Normal immigration formalities were waived.

OPED

Punjab’s industrial policy
Implementation is the key
by Upinder Sawhney
THE 2009 industrial policy of Punjab has come long after it was discussed and promised by the Government of Punjab. It seems that either it has been announced to meet a compulsion of coalition politics or in response to pressure from various industrial bodies in the state.

Sarkozy faces nepotism storm
by John Lichfield
THE possible – or even probable – appointment of a 23-year-old Paris law student to run Europe’s largest office development has generated a storm of protest and mockery in France, including an 8,000-name petition on the internet. According to his critics, the student has only one qualification to become the next political boss of the lucrative, prestigious but floundering La Défense business district west of the city centre.

Loss of power potential
by Padamjit Singh
Despite the late revival of the monsoon the reservoir levels of hydro projects in the region are substantially lower than last year, as on September 21, which is considered as the end of filling season. The Bhakra level this year on September 21 was 1636. 78 feet, which is 43.98 feet lower than the last year level of 1680.76 feet. The storage deficit is 8.14 lakh cusec days.

EDITORIALS

With Agni and Prithvi
Pak nuclear challenge has to be met

THE successful launch of two advanced versions of the Prithvi-II nuclear-capable missiles on Monday with a strike range of 350 kms marks another achievement for scientists. The two missiles hit their respective targets with clockwork precision. This, though heartening, is only a small step in gaining parity with the recalcitrant Pakistan which, taking advantage of clandestine import of nuclear missile technology from China and North Korea is being seen as having stolen a march over India in recent years in this field. Evidently, the Nuclear Command Authority set up in 2003 with the Prime Minister and the tri-service Strategic Forces Command to ensure proper command and control structures, has fulfilled a long-felt need for a unified strategic initiatives structure. With the 700-km Agni-I and 2,000-km-plus Agni-II ballistic missiles still to be inducted into the armed forces, the advanced version of Prithvi is currently the mainstay of SFC and consequently, its progress is vital to India’s missile programme.

Pakistan reportedly possesses between 30 and 70 nuclear warheads, as well as short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. In addition, it is currently developing nuclear-capable Ghauri-3 intermediate-range missiles, which are designed for long-range strikes against civilian and military targets deep inside India. Recently, the US had accused Pakistan of illegally modifying American-made missiles to expand its capability to strike land targets in India. It has also emerged time and again that Pakistan has been a ‘rogue state’ trading nuclear technology with states like North Korea, Libya, Iran and China. In the circumstances, it is imperative that the world takes notice of nuclear proliferation by Pakistan and the US stops looking the other way with Pakistan pursuing its designs.

However, India can ill afford to leave its flanks uncovered while placing undue reliance on other nations. Work on the Agni programme needs to be speeded up alongside the development of Prithvi missiles so that we are duly prepared for any adventurism by Pakistan with China’s overt or covert encouragement.

Haryana does better
But Maharashtra voters remain indifferent

Tuesday’s elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh were by and large peaceful. Except the continued Naxalite disturbances in Maharashtra’s Gadchiroli district and stray incidents in Ambala City, Kaithal and Meham in Haryana, elections in the three states passed off peacefully, reflecting once again the people’s maturity. According to tentative figures, Haryana, which will elect 90 MLAs, recorded nearly 65 per cent of polling. One has to wait for the final figure to examine whether Tuesday’s turnout has surpassed the 67.9 per cent polling in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and 71.9 per cent in the 2005 Assembly polls. Arunachal Pradesh has registered a record 72 per cent polling.

The voter turnout in Maharashtra, which will elect 288 representatives, was disappointing. It was over 45 per cent — not a healthy sign for a vibrant and enlightened democracy. The turnout in Mumbai continues to be poor. The Mumbaikars are indifferent though Mumbai is said to be the progressive and modern metropolis, apart from being India’s commercial capital. In other cities such as Nagpur, Nashik, Nanded and Aurangabad, polling was poor. Encouragingly, in Gadchiroli, despite the Naxalite threat, people turned up to vote.

Poor turnout owing to the voters’ apathy is not a new phenomenon in the country. However, disturbingly, this trend is spreading to more and more states in recent times. The Mumbai voter is as usual apathetic showing no sign of improvement in the turnout this time. In the last Lok Sabha elections, it was only 41 per cent. The onus for this squarely lies more on the urban rather than on the rural voters. They seem to have abdicated their democratic duty. After 26/11, they came to the streets and made a hue and cry about the need to teach a lesson to the politicians for their failure to provide security to the people. However, when it is election time, very few turn up to cast vote. For the success of democracy, people ought to exercise their franchise in large numbers and they should not fritter away their right to do so.

Under the scanner
Chandigarh needs a Chief Commissioner

THE Tribune had highlighted many glaring anomalies in the allotment of land to certain IT companies at the Rajiv Gandhi Chandigarh Technology Park. These have now been validated by the audit report on the Chandigarh Administration prepared by the Ministry of Home Affairs. It has uncovered glaring inconsistencies and given instances of undue favours to certain IT companies. While farmers were paid a low price for their land, rules were bent to favour IT majors. All this underlines the sad fact that under the present system of having the Punjab Governor as Chief Administrator of the Union Territory, the administration has become unaccountable and inaccessible. In short, the administration has been malfunctioning in the absence of proper checks and balances. Such a muddle would be bad in any part of the country. It is particularly unfortunate in a small union territory, not bigger than that of a sub-tehsil.

The controversial IT project is only one instance of the disconnect between the public and the administration. The mismanagement strengthens the case for revival of the post of Chief Commissioner. It is imperative that the administration should be headed by a person directly in charge of the bureaucracy. Only then can the grievances of the public be addressed in an effective and timely manner.

The Chief Administrator system was in place till the 1980s. The Punjab Governor was made Chief Administrator only to ensure better coordination between the police forces and the administrations of Punjab and Chandigarh during the terrorism days. Now that terrorism is no longer there, there is no justification for persisting with this odious legacy, which has had several negative side-effects. The open confrontation between the Governor designated as UT Administrator and his Advisor was more than unseemly. A Chief Commissioner would not only be able to provide hands-on administration, his actions would also be open to necessary scrutiny. The perceived constitutional protection that the Administrator has tried to invoke in his capacity as Governor has led to a lack of transparency and flawed decisions.

Thought for the Day

The dust of exploded beliefs may make a fine sunset.

— Geoffrey Madan

ARTICLE

The Pokhran blast
Let’s not belittle our scientists’ achievements
by S.K. Sharma

Controversies in science are as old as science itself. This is due to unending quest of scientists to unravel the mysteries till their solution is universally accepted. Scientific literature is full of controversies. As a result, there are genuine differences of opinion, professional rivalries, religious dogmas or political compulsions. However, truth has always prevailed.

Surprisingly, Mr Santhanam, who had hailed the nuclear triumph at the first press conference held after the nuclear tests in 1998, has suddenly questioned their validity after 11 years. In the process, he is undermining India’s indigenous efforts to design cutting edge advanced nuclear weapons in contrast to our neighbors, who have either borrowed nuclear technologies from their strategic partners like China or used covert operation to steal nuclear technology from western countries.

The only partial failure acknowledged after tests was the improper sealing of the tunnels, a task supervised by Mr Santhanam, as the team leader of Site and tunnel preparation task during nuclear tests. The leakage from the improper sealed tunnels can result in improper formation of the cavity, an evidence put forward by him to prove the partial failure of hydrogen bomb test itself.

In the process, he is undermining the stupendous efforts of by the Thermonuclear weapon development team lead by Dr Satinder Sikka and project team led by Dr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, Dr R. Chidambaram and Anil Kakodkar. They had made the country proud by exploding the bombs within a month of the green signal by the political leadership. The urgency to test nuclear weapons was triggered by the testing of nuclear delivery missile Ghauri by Pakistan on April 6, 1998 and declaration by Dr Qadar Khan, international nuclear proliferation czar and head of Pakistan’s nuclear weapon programme, on April 15.

In all five tests were conducted in two groups with great care and preparation to validate the future road map of India’s nuclear deterrent, based on indigenous resources in raw material, hardware and software. Three tests were conducted on May 11, 1998 and two on May 13, 1998. The first group of nuclear tests named Shakti I, II, III consisted of two stage thermonuclear device of 45 kilotons (fusion hydrogen bomb), pure fission tactical bomb/missile war head of 15 kilotons and a fission device of 0.3 kilotons for use as fusion booster.

The 0.3 kiloton device was an experiment to test boosted fission device, which could use reactor grade Plutonium. This test was designed to prove India’s expertise in controlling and damping a nuclear explosion to achieve a low (sub-kiloton) yield and demonstrate ability to produce advanced complex designs of miniature nuclear weapons. Such devices could be used as a tactical weapon in different theaters of war. This test demonstrated the ability to use lower grade plutonium from India’s large number of KANDU power reactors plutonium stockpile and reactors not covered under nuclear deal. Thus, delinking the Indian strategic programme from research reactors at BARC for producing weapon grade plutonium.

These successful tests gave the Government of India the confidence to sign the Indo-US nuclear deal and agreeing to phase out research reactor at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre. This test coupled with 15 kiloton device test appears to have validated the computer model for upscaling the weapons up to 200 kilotons, which is extremely vital for a potent nuclear deterrent.

In contrast to hydrogen bombs designed by other countries, where first stage is an atomic bomb, the first stage of Indian controversy similar to one raised by Santhanam was also raised in 1999, when some international scientists predicted low yields of Indian nuclear tests. Their inference was based on seismic measurements of body wave magnitude, a method frequently used to predict the yields of nuclear tests.

However, subsequent analysis by other scientists showed that results by this method are dependent upon the site geology and calibration accuracy and a number of other uncertainties. As a result, calculated yield can vary over a factor of at least six, even when there are no unusual compiling involved.

In the case of Indian tests, it was observed that the complete signature of surface waves did not propagate to the international seismic station in Nilore Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan due to a seismic barrier (Himalayan fault) between Indian plate and these international seismic stations.

In addition, three nuclear tests were conducted on May 11 simultaneously in tunnels which were separated from each other by a distance of only 1 km. This may have resulted in interference of waves from different explosions. Three nuclear tests on May 11 were conducted simultaneously in the tunnels which were separated from each other by a distance of only 1 km. This may have resulted in interference of waves from different explosions and may be responsible for prediction of low yields.

In a peer reviewed paper, Dr Sikka, Dr Anil Kakodkar, Dr Chidambaram and others scientists at BARC, have justified the Indian claim based on regional waves data and accounting for destructive interference in seismic waves caused by simultaneous explosions, which has not been rebutted scientifically as yet. Subsequently, international scientists admitted that the combined yield of 50-55 kilotons, as claimed by Indian scientists, is possible.

Another analysis method used to predict the yield is based on the comparison of surface topography after the test with that of earlier tests. These tests depend on geological characteristics of the site and the depth at which explosions are carried out. Mr Santhanam is questioning the success of the fusion test based on this evidence.

Improper sealing of tunnels and depth of the charge interferes with the cavity formation. A detailed analysis of the crater carried out by Dr Sublette, taking in to account all the parameters, also supported the Indian claims. The Federation of American Scientist (FAS), a prestigious independent think-tank, has also predicted yields closure to Indian scientists.

Some analysts claim that deliberately undermining the Indian tests was a ploy to get more information regarding design of Indian weapons, as no nuclear weapon state has given information on their tests. Surprisingly, Mr Santhanam, an old RAW official who had played an important role in uncovering Pakistan nuclear programme, could fall into this trap by asking peer review of the most sensitive data on our nuclear devices design.

Creditably, Pokhran II nuclear tests were not routine explosions but technological marvels because the five tests evaluated the performance of critical bomb components and validated the simulation computer model and a number of advanced nuclear weapon design concept for both fission and fusion bombs, for which over 50 tests would have been required in regular practice. That’s why, the planned sixth test was not conducted and the government was informed that no future tests are required.

Unnecessary controversy has undermined the spectacular achievements of our dedicated scientists who have given India the capabilities of a potent deterrent by developing the cutting edge technology to exponentially increase the number of weapons using reactor grade plutonium. These tests also validated technology and simulation model techniques to produce miniature tactical weapons as per threat perception from close quarters.

Use of primary boosted fission primary for fusion device is another feather in the cap of our scientists. Successful experiments during the tests to control the yield will help India develop different sizes of hydrogen bombs to suit various missiles delivery systems and targets. Validation of computer simulation for design of fusion and fission weapon system has put us at par with the most advanced nuclear weapon countries.

We should be proud of the fact that Indian nuclear scientists have created simulation design capabilities using local know-how and India made super computer Param because the United States and other countries had denied the export of their super computer to India to thwart its simulation work on design of nuclear devices. These days most nuclear weapon countries refine their bomb technology through computer simulations.

The writer is Professor Emeritus, Panjab University, Chandigarh

MIDDLE

Hockey at Lahore
by V.K. Kapoor

I was deputed by the MHA to accompany the Indian hockey team to Lahore for the World Cup in 1990. The security concerns were high.

We reached Lahore by a PIA flight. From the tarmac, we were driven straight to the hotel, where we were to stay for 15 days. The officer in charge told me that it was a “commando operation” as he handed us our passports. Normal immigration formalities were waived.

Next day, I met DIG, Lahore, and expressed my security concerns asking for a foolproof security for the team. The formal atmosphere melted once we started talking in Punjabi. He told me not to worry.

In subsequent meetings we talked about the dislocation and pain of partition. He told me that his mother was from Amritsar. I told him my wife was from Sialkot. We both laughed. On personal level I found them very warm and hospitable.

The day the Indian team was to play, the galleries were packed. The moment the play started, the people started performing “Siapa” by beating their breasts. They were shouting slogans insulting to Indians. It was a hatred as pure as the hatred of one animal for another, free of subtlety and treachery.

Young school children, sitting next to the VIP galleries, too did the same.

In old walled city, I found some interesting posters from the recently held elections. Mian Nawaz Sharif was the Prime Minister. A poster targeted Benazir Bhutto. Benazir posters targeted Sharif.

I found the system feudal, ethnic and tribal. Aristocrats and big landlords ruled the country. At a reception by Gen Tikka Khan, the Governor of Punjab, I was sitting next to a former minister. There was a lot of nostalgia and the conversation was in Punjabi. I asked him, how he kept himself busy.

He replied casually “Kujh zamina ne” (I have some lands). “How much” I asked. “Panj, Chee, railway station lagde ne”. There are five six railway stations touching my lands.

At the reception by Mayor of Lahore, he talked about Punjab, Punjabi and Punjabiat. He was very bitter about partition and said it was all ‘Siasat’ (Politics). Had India remained together, the Prime Minister would have been from Punjab. Now your PMs always came from UP. He said the “Quaid” (Mr Jinnah) became disillusioned with the machinations of ‘UP wallahs’. As we were getting up, a scholarly, looking man summed up the situation with a Urdu couplet:

Halat Se Larna, Mushkil Tha, Halat Se Rishta Jod Liya,

Jis Raat Ki Koi Subhah Nahin, Us Raat Se Rishta Jod Liya.

Many years later, after the final meeting with the Pakistani delegation on the Delhi-Lahore bus, I told a delegate that the bus will qualitatively improve Indo-Pak relations. He said, “Insha Allah” and recited a couplet:

Mumkin Nahin Halat Ki Guthi Suljha Saken

Allah-Danish Ne, Bahut Soch Ke Uljhai Hai.

After sometime, Kargil happened, and the bus was withdrawn. I admired the main insight in the Indo-Pak affairs.

Jaswant Singh’s book has revived the ghosts of Pakistan and partition. Many a times the decisions of few affect the destiny of millions and change the boundaries of countries. The pain and anguish persist.

OPED

Punjab’s industrial policy
Implementation is the key
by Upinder Sawhney

THE 2009 industrial policy of Punjab has come long after it was discussed and promised by the Government of Punjab. It seems that either it has been announced to meet a compulsion of coalition politics or in response to pressure from various industrial bodies in the state.

Punjab has a separate document for every provision made for facilitating industrial development in the state in the new policy. The Punjab Infrastructure Development Board is the nodal agency for public private partnerships.

Punjab Information Technology Policy, 2001, is available for boosting the IT sector in the state. There is Tourism Policy 2003, Special Economic Zones Policy, 2005, and, to top it all, there exists the Punjab Industrial Facilitation Act, 2005.

Therefore, what Punjab needed was not a new policy for facilitating industrialisation but a serious effort towards implementing the earlier policies in letter and spirit.

It is a pity that to carry out its commitments made to various sections of society, a Punjab Social Development and Governance Reforms Commission has been set up to improve governance and the delivery system in the state. This fact has been reiterated in the industrial policy, thus admitting that governance is not up to the mark and hence a need for such a commission.

A lot of emphasis has been laid on constituting boards, core groups and committees for the implementation of certain aspects of the policy. Also, it is an open-ended document, spelling out no time-frame for the completion of infrastructure projects, viz., airports, specialised agri-infrastructure etc.

In so far as the ease of doing business is concerned, Udyog Sahayak and a single window clearance system have been in place for many years, but the ground reality is very different. The bureaucratic red tape has deterred both domestic and foreign investors from investing in Punjab.

No specific measures have been suggested for attracting foreign direct investment in the state. The idea of reviving the Goindwal industrial estate makes one wonder what had prevented the government from working on its revival since the end of militancy in the state.

The uninterrupted availability of power is a pre-requisite to development in Punjab — both agricultural and industrial. The mention of power sector reforms undermines the credibility of the document as it is very well known that the government has not kept its commitment on this front despite pressure from the central government and the enactment of legislation for the same.

In the case of VAT, it is not the time period of refund which has bothered the industry so far but the failure of the government to actually refund the money as its financial condition is too weak for anyone to be optimistic on that front.

Therefore, whether it is 60 or 90 days, what is important is whether the government can actually keep up its commitment as its track record is nothing to be proud of.

There are various types of subsidies and sops announced in the policy, which can again not be delivered because of the poor financial health of the state.

One of the most worrying aspects of the policy is to allow an indiscriminate use of agricultural land for industrial purposes and for mega projects. As the returns from agriculture are falling and land is becoming more and more expensive, anyone, especially small farmers, will be tempted to sell their land as soon as they are given an option.

But the government seems to have overlooked the food security issue and the fact that once farmers lose their land, they are not trained for any other economic engagement to earn their livelihood. There would be serious socio-economic implications.

Secondly, mega projects for Punjab have so far meant only housing projects, whereas other states have successfully invested in mega power projects, specialised industrial parks etc.

Punjab has failed to avail of opportunities thrown open by the Government of India under the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Act of 2005 or the Scheme for Integrated Textiles Parks (SITP) so far.

There had been instances in the past of land having been allotted for industrial purposes but being put to other commercial use. This trend must be arrested and the land not utilised for the purpose that it was given must be resumed.

The industrial policy is completely silent on an amendment to the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committees (APMC) Act which limits the ability of the private sector to buy and sell agricultural crops direct from farmers or to set up new markets. It was clearly suggested in the report commissioned by UNIDO on which the present policy is based.

It is not the content of the industrial policy that matters, but the capability of the polity and the bureaucracy to implement not only this policy but several other commitments made to the people of Punjab to improve the quality of their lives as also to arrest the deceleration of the state economy.

This requires an enabling environment, including investments in technological and organisational capabilities of the state.

The much talked-about e-governance, put to effective use by other states, is far from being attempted in Punjab.

Accountability for performance is also needed, not just by government organisations, but also by other stakeholders, including the corporate sector, the civil society and the NGOs.

There is a huge potential for industrial and service sector growth, particularly agro-industrial development in Punjab if the government implements certain decisions which may seem harsh in the short run but will accelerate the pace of growth of the economy and will confer political dividends in the long run.

The writer is the Chairperson, Department of Economics, Panjab University, Chandigarh

Sarkozy faces nepotism storm
by John Lichfield

Jean Sarkozy: “I am not more legitimate than other candidates but nor am I less legitimate.”

THE possible – or even probable – appointment of a 23-year-old Paris law student to run Europe’s largest office development has generated a storm of protest and mockery in France, including an 8,000-name petition on the internet. According to his critics, the student has only one qualification to become the next political boss of the lucrative, prestigious but floundering La Défense business district west of the city centre. The student’s name is Jean Sarkozy, the son of the President of the Republic.

According to the President’s political party, Jean Sarkozy, who is in his second year of a law degree at the University of Paris-Sorbonne, is “the most legitimate” candidate for the job. A taller, blonder, more handsome version of his father, he said modestly: “I am not more legitimate than other candidates but nor am I less legitimate.”

Mr Sarkozy Jnr already leads his father’s centre-right party, the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP), on the council of Hauts-de-Seine, the wealthiest département in France. He is, in theory, a shoo-in for the party’s nomination to be the new head of La Défense’s public management body later this month, and for the final appointment in December.

But the prospect of a 23-year-old being catapulted into such a powerful, if unpaid, position has raised howls of fury and derision. The former presidential candidate, François Bayrou, accused the “Sarkozy clan” of taking France “back to the days of imperial Rome”, when the Emperor Caligula appointed his horse as consul. Other critics have spoken of the “Berlusconisation” of France or of political behaviour worthy of a “banana republic”.

The criticism comes not only from the President’s usual opponents on the left and centre. The online forums of Le Figaro – a centre-right newspaper which supports President Sarkozy – were packed with angry messages condemning the latest move in the fast-track career of “Sarkozy fils”. One typical message reads: “My grandson is in the second year of kindergarten and loves aeroplanes. Do you think he has a chance of becoming boss of Air France next year?”

Jean Sarkozy shot to prominence soon after his father’s election in 2007. He supported a renegade candidate for the President’s original fiefdom as mayor of Neuilly-sur-Seine, a wealthy western surburb of Paris. Last year, soon after marrying an heiress, he ran successfully for a county council seat and was elected as leader of the UMP group on the Hauts-de-Seine council.

Observers of the tangled and poisonous web of Hauts-de-Seine politics say it is too simple to suggest that President Sarkozy has pushed his son forward. They say the President, who himself became mayor of Neuilly at the age of 28, has been both fascinated and exasperated by the depth of his son’s hunger and ambition (although he has done little to curb them).

An internet petition has been launched by Christophe Grébe, an investigative journalist turned centrist politician, who has acquired a large following with his criticism of the political and financial management of La Défense in recent years.

More than 8,000 people had signed the petition last night. It reads: “Presiding over such an organisation requires competence and experience. Jean Sarkozy, we invite you to complete your law studies and do a few work experience placements in business, before – who knows? – trying again for your father’s old job one day.”

The President’s progeny

* Jean Sarkozy de Nagy-Bocsa, who turned 23 last month, is the younger of two sons of Nicolas Sarkozy’s first marriage. When Mr Sarkozy left the marriage to live with his future second wife, Cécilia, Jean was two years old and was largely brought up by his mother, Marie-Dominique Culioli. The president is said by friends to be exasperated by his son’s youthful ambition but unwilling to stand in his way, partly because of a sense of guilt at the collapse of his first marriage.

* Jean’s quieter, older brother, Pierre, 24, is an independent rock and hip-hop music producer.

* President Sarkozy has a third son, Louis, 12, who lives in New York with his mother Cécilia Ciganer-Albeniz, the president’s divorced second wife.

* Sarkozy’s third wife, Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, has an eight-year-old son, Aurélien. His father is the French writer, Raphael Enthoven. Aurélien lives with his mother and her new husband in the 16th arrondissement of Paris.

— By arrangement with The Independent

Loss of power potential
by Padamjit Singh

Despite the late revival of the monsoon the reservoir levels of hydro projects in the region are substantially lower than last year, as on September 21, which is considered as the end of filling season.

The Bhakra level this year on September 21 was 1636. 78 feet, which is 43.98 feet lower than the last year level of 1680.76 feet. The storage deficit is 8.14 lakh cusec days.

At Pong as against the last year level of 1387.75 feet, this year level was 1339.36 feet, the gap of 48.39 feet being equivalent to 12.9 lakh cusec days.

At Ranjit Sagar the level was 501.91 metre this year which was 12.88 metre lower than the last year level of 514.79 metre, resulting in a reduced storage of 2.74 lakh cusec days.

The overall reduction of water storage was thus 23.78 lakh cusec days. This quantum of water is sufficient to sustain a canal of 10,000 cusec for nearly eight months.

The reduced energy potential is assessed on the basis of shortfall in storage at the dam and the consequent loss of generation in the canal power houses located downstream.

The reduced energy availability this year as compared to last year at Bhakra is 672 MU (Million Units), 644 MU at Pong and 158 MU at Ranjit Sagar.

The corresponding energy loss to Punjab will be 308 MU at Bhakra, 160 MU at Pong and 151 MU at Ranjit Sagar.

The consequential loss of energy availability at the downstream canal power houses will be 244 MU at Anandpur, 553 MU at Mukerian and 82 MU at UBDC Pathankot.

The total loss of energy to Punjab will be 1499 MUs out of which 469 MU is from BBMB and 1030 MU from PSEB Hydro stations.

The lower availability of 1499 MU will have to be compensated by a combination of increased power cuts and higher power purchase.

In case the entire shortfall is to be made up through extra power purchase, the cost would be around Rs 900 crore, taking the average purchase price as Rs 6 per unit.

The Punjab State Electricity Regulatory Commission in its tariff order of 9-10 has worked out the hydro energy availability on the basis of the past three years average. The loss of hydro energy availability to Punjab, 1499 MU, works out to 16.7 per cent of the commission figure of gross availability of 8988 MU.

In case of BBMB, the shortfall of 469 MU is 10.1 per cent of the availability figure taken by the PSERC and in case of the PSEB’s own hydro stations the deficit of 1030 MU is 22 per cent of the PSERC figure of 4665 MU.

The PSEB in its ARR filed before the PSERC had given a power purchase cost of Rs 7,264.61 crore, which the commission reduced to Rs 4,746.59 core. The total revenue gap given by the PSEB as Rs 8,546.44 crore was assessed by the commission as Rs 1,300.08 crore (at the existing tariff).

There is a strong ground for the commission to review its order of September 8, 2009, to allow additional power purchase to offset the loss of 1499 MU from hydro sources.

The writer is a retired Chief Engineer of the PSEB.