The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

China’s posture
India can’t accept its stand on Arunachal

THE expression of “strong dissatisfaction” by the Chinese government on the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Arunachal Pradesh earlier this month is an outrageous attempt to score more than brownie points. Though in a sense it is only an extension of the hawkish posture that the Chinese have been adopting in recent times on Arunachal Pradesh, which it claims as its own, it shows that they are upping the ante on this. That India has vehemently opposed the Chinese statement is as it should be. Dr Singh’s visit to Arunachal to elicit support for his party’s candidates in the assembly election was perfectly in order. Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna’s prompt re-assertion that Arunachal is an inalienable part of India and that the Chinese statement does not help the process of ongoing negotiations on the boundary question is an appropriate and clear response to the games the Chinese are playing. That the turnout in the elections was an impressive 72 per cent only goes to show that the people of this region are emotionally integrated with this country and are partners of India’s democratic system, like other citizens of the country.

Until some time ago, China’s interest in Arunachal was limited to Tawang, given the spiritual links between Tibetans and the people of this area. But it now encompasses the whole state. Evidently, the Chinese are eyeing Arunachal’s huge mineral deposits, its hydro-electric power potential, its scope as a tourist attraction and its use as an “eastern gateway” from the Brahmaputra valley to China’s Yunnan province. In addition, Arunachal also offers strategic advantages in terms of providing a base to gain contiguity with Bhutan along its eastern flank as well as permitting access to the entire Southeast Asian market.

India, therefore, needs to maintain utmost vigil against Chinese attempts to label this territory as its own. Though the chances of India and China going to war on the issue are remote, the Chinese are apparently calculating to use this as a bargaining plank in border negotiations to extract major concessions from India in the western sector. That heightens the need for India to strengthen its defences all along the northern borders, even if there are no signs of the two countries going to war.

Healthy pick-up
Economy springs a surprise

THE better-than-expected double-digit growth in industrial production in August has lifted the country’s economic mood. Spreading cheer all round, the BSE Sensitive Index shot up 384 points on Monday and by another 204 points on Wednesday. A strong performance by the European equity markets also contributed to the positive sentiment. The data released by the Central Statistical Organisation reveals that the growth has been led by three key sectors: manufacturing, mining and electricity. Particularly heartening is the turnaround in textiles, which has passed through a prolonged bad phase due to sluggish exports, resulting in massive job losses.

Three factors have chiefly contributed to the industrial recovery. One is what statisticians call the base effect. The pullback is sharp because industrial growth in August last year was quite low at 2.8 per cent. Two, the bounce back has happened due to the trickle-down effect of the government’s stimulus packages. The growth is faster in areas which benefited from increased government spending than those left to fend for themselves. Three, the staff pay revision at the Central and state levels and the payment of arrears have spurred consumer demand for cars, two-wheelers and white goods. The spurt in demand has continued in the current festival season and may extend up to December.

However, there are four negatives which could possibly slow down growth. The 23 per cent less rain this season has pushed up food prices and dampened rural consumption. The government may have to spend more in rural India to shore up rural demand. Secondly, inflation is threatening to rise. This may prompt the RBI to raise interest rates and end the present era of cheaper loans. Thirdly, the Central government’s finances are in disarray due to heavy borrowings. It is under pressure to control spending. In the absence of preventive steps, this may hurt the growth of government-dependent sectors like infrastructure. Finally, India’s export revival depends on how fast the US and European economies recover. Despite all these the economic scene is throwing up a lot of hopeful signs.

Thought for the Day

In politics, if you want anything said, ask a man. If you want anything done, ask a woman. — Margaret Thatcher

ARTICLE

Pakistan in turmoil
Army challenges the government’s writ
by G. Parthasarathy

THE tranquillity around Pakistan’s Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi, where the Army’s X Corps, whose main claim to fame is its propensity to stage coups against civilian governments, is also located, was rudely disturbed on October 11. A small group of militants clad in military uniforms from the “Amjad Farooqi Group” of the Tehriq-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) struck at the hallowed precincts of the Army Headquarters, killed army personnel, including a Brigadier and Lieutenant Colonel and held the entire Headquarters of the Pakistan army hostage for around 18 hours.

A few days earlier, a militant dressed in the uniform of the predominantly Pashtun Frontier Constabulary carried out a suicide bomb attack on the UN offices at the very heart of the capital, Islamabad. In both cases, the attacks had evidently been planned by people with inside knowledge of security, arrangements in the most sensitive areas of the national capital.

These terrorist strikes came at a time when Pakistan was witnessing an unseemly tussle between the elected government headed by President Zardari and the Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani over the provisions of the Kerry-Lugar Act passed by the US Congress, authorising $ 7.5 billion of economic assistance to Pakistan.

A statement issued last week by the Army Headquarters, after a meeting of Corps Commanders presided over by General Kayani, alleged the provisions of the US legislation violated Pakistani sovereignty and called on the country’s Parliament to decide whether the provisions of the Act should be accepted.

Interestingly, this army intervention, quite obviously intended to create a rift between President Zardari, who is a supporter of the US legislation and Parliament, came after an unprecedented meeting in Rawalpindi between Shahbaz Sharif, the Chief Minister of Punjab and brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was accompanied by the leader of the opposition in the National Assembly Chaudhury Nisar Ali Khan on the one hand and Army Chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, on the other. Chaudhury Nisar is spearheading the opposition to the Kerry-Lugar-Act in Parliament.

Responding to the army’s insubordination, Zardari’s spokesman noted that it was inappropriate for the army to comment publicly on a sensitive issue with political overtones and that its concerns should have, more appropriately, been placed before the Defence Committee of the Cabinet.

The furore in Pakistan on the Kerry-Lugar Act, which has been fomented by General Kayani, is largely contrived. No one denies that the cash-strapped country desperately needs foreign economic assistance. Like past US Aid Legislation, the Kerry-Lugar Act reflects American and international concerns about Pakistan. It requires the Secretary of State to certify the Pakistan government has acted to prevent “Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and associated terrorist groups like the Lashkar e Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed from operating in the territory of Pakistan, including carrying out cross border attacks, into neighbouring countries”.

There are also provisions seeking certification that entities in Pakistan are not involved in nuclear proliferation, that the Pakistan army is under effective civilian and parliamentary scrutiny and control and that all support for terrorist groups from “elements within the Pakistan military or its intelligence services” has ceased. These provisions for monitoring the role of Pakistan’s military and its intelligence services have obviously rattled General Kayani and his cohorts.

The US has made no secret over its displeasure at the ISI’s support for Mullah Omar and Taliban military commanders like Sirajuddin Haqqani, who are spearheading attacks against American forces in Afghanistan.

The actions of the Pakistan army suggest that while it may reluctantly take on Taliban groups which question the writ of the Pakistan State, like Maulana Fazlullah’s supporters in Swat and the Tehriq-e-Taliban led now by Hakeemullah Mehsud, in South Waziristan, it will continue to support Afghan and Pakistani Taliban groups waging Jihad against the Americans in Afghanistan.

During the past three months, the army has been preparing to attack the strongholds in South Waziristan of Hakeemullah Mehsud and his Uzbek allies from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which was led by Tahir Yuldeshev. Yuldeshev had close links with the ISI since the 1990s, when the ISI facilitated his links with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda and used his Uzbek forces to target the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, led by Ahmed Shah Masood.

Yuldeshev was reportedly killed in a US drone attack on September 26. The Pakistan army has now amassed around 28,000 soldiers for an assault, backed by air power and American drones, in South Waziristan. The assault by the TTP on the army Headquarters in Rawalpindi is a clear warning to the Pakistani military establishment that the TTP will hit at targets across Pakistan, if the army attacks it.

Past operations of the Pakistan army in South Waziristan, bordering Afghanistan, have failed miserably. It remains to be seen whether the army has the ability and courage to take on the TTP and its Uzbek and other allies in South Waziristan successfully. Moreover, there had to be support from elements within the security forces, in recent terrorist attacks in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, as the militants evidently had inside information on the vulnerabilities in the security structure.

Can the army and Frontier Constabulary now be sure that Pashtun soldiers, who hail from the tribal areas and constitute a substantial portion of the security forces, will remain steadfast in their resolve in operations, which target the homes of their kith and kin? Moreover, while there was widespread political consensus within Pakistan, in army operations in Swat, which is very close to the capital Islamabad, will there be a sustained political consensus if operations in South Waziristan are prolonged?

Finally, the impending operations in South Waziristan are based on the assumption that Taliban groups elsewhere in the tribal areas will remain not come to aid of their erstwhile allies in South Waziristan. Is this a realistic assumption? As more and more groups once supported by the ISI turn against the Pakistan army, US Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson recently remarked: “You cannot tolerate a viper in your bosom without getting bitten”!

Pakistan is moving into even more turbulent and troubled waters as its army, given to dictating the national agenda, confronts new challenges. But, perhaps the most shocking aspect of these developments is that Mr Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted in a military coup a decade ago, now finds it expedient to make common cause with General Kayani. It was precisely such misguided opportunism that led to the destabilisation of democratic governments in the 1990s. Moreover, even the political establishment seems divided on the utility of terrorist groups in Pakistan’s relations with its neighbours.

MIDDLE

Footballs all
by Rajbir Deswal

Look, I am a senior cop and you need to salute me,” “said Football One. “What an introduction buddy! You were a nice, round-faced, round bodied, roly-poly, rotund football. When did you become a cop, of all the silly things in the world?” asked Football Two.

“Didn’t you hear PC telling the country’s very senior cops in no uncertain terms and with unambiguous intent that they were all like footballs? Kicked from here to there!”

“PC? you mean Police Commissioner?” asked Football Two.

“Yes, he is the seniormost of them all and a well-meaning HM too,” said Football One. “You mean His Majesty?” asked Football Two. “Yes, after all cops of the feudal vintage like to address him and his ilk like that only,” replied Football One. “But how come PC said we were footballs? And if he had to refer to all that is round around us, and within, then he could have said, ‘marbles’ instead,” quipped Football Two.

“Big people have big brains buddy! Great ideas take birth in them naturally. PC might have thought that footballs give a well-fed look. That is why perhaps he wanted to pamper the cops, likening them to something the calling of which is all too welcome!” said Football One.

Football Two still wanted to make a point, “No, but he didn’t want to pamper them, rather give them a piece of his mind! But as I said, marbles would have best described the cops’ calling. Don’t the marbles hit, hammer and shoot at each other, and all those who are in their line of fire with a perfect aim in sight like the bull’s eye (be they public, or rival politicians in the “Marble Cops” scheme of things)?

“But buddy, they always want to bend them like Beckhem.” Football One tried to make another point, “And if it is not a football then what else will take the punch in. A cricket or a hockey ball or even a marble, may hit hard on ricocheting. It’s only a football that is flexible and resilient, as if beseeching the kicker into “one more time, come on Sir, kick me one more time hard, and I may ‘net’ you a ‘goal!” Football One tried to convince her friend elaborating on the various “Politico-friendly” traits of them all.

Football Two seemed to be convinced by now and quibbled with an eye to eye grin, “Look what happened when even the non-political, world famous French footballer, Zinedine Zidane headbutted Marco Materazzi during the 2006 World Cup final! No political player ever would like to repeat Zidane’s feat? And invite unnecessary trouble when the likes of us are there to oblige.”

And to conclude and clinch the issue in favour of PC’s calling the cops footballs, Football One quoted Shakespeare, “Hey Buddy know what? Even the most popular Roman king Caesar had wanted to ‘have men about me that are fat, sleek-headed men and such as sleep a-nights.’

“So as to let the thieves do their work. Footballs all! Jai Hind Sir!” greeted Football Two bending over backwards a little more than desired.

OPED

Nuclear proliferation
The UN pushes the idea again
by Michael D. Gordin

Attempts to control or reverse nuclear proliferation come in two flavors: Either one tries to control nuclear material (uranium, centrifuges, superfast switches) or one tries to control nuclear information (blueprints, schematics, scientific expertise).

For most of the last half a century, the world has shunned the material approach in favor of controlling information. But information is extremely difficult to contain, as is made clear by the growing number of countries that have acquired nuclear weapons in the decades since the United States made the first atomic bomb, from the Soviet Union in 1949 to North Korea in 2006.

The United Nations started out with a materials-centric approach. Almost exactly a year after the San Francisco Charter established the United Nations in June 1945, President Harry S. Truman sent a special envoy there with a proposal to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

At the time — because the only nation with such devices was the U.S. — the move was patently directed at the Soviet Union in an effort to curb it from taking the steps toward nuclear proliferation.

Instead of relying on the standing representative to the fledgling body, Warren Austin, Truman sent Bernard Baruch, a financier and longtime adviser to Democratic presidents since Woodrow Wilson. On June 14, 1946, Baruch unveiled his plan to control nuclear energy, the centerpiece of which was the control of uranium ore.

The goal of the proposal, modeled on the ideas of physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer, as expressed in the Acheson-Lilienthal Report released earlier that year, was to stop proliferation at the source. Global uranium reserves would be internationalized, and scientists worldwide would be required to report clandestine nuclear activities to an international atomic energy authority. No uranium, no bombs. Period.

Global politics, in the end, prevented the Baruch plan from being implemented. But now, after decades of trying instead to control information, the United Nations has once again embraced the idea of controlling materials. Resolution 1887, passed unanimously by the Security Council last month, aims to secure nuclear materials around the world.

The Baruch plan has not fared well with historians and proliferation experts, mostly because it did not fare well with the Soviets. Baruch preserved the key insight of the Acheson-Lilienthal Report about the need to contain uranium ore, but he modified the original proposal in two very significant ways.

First, violators would automatically be subject to sanctions — "an international law with teeth in it," as he put it. Second, veto power in the Security Council — a privilege of the victors in World War II (the U.S., the Soviet Union, France, Britain and Republican China) that had been essential to persuade the Soviets to join the world body in the first place -- would be suspended only for matters pertaining to atomic energy.

This last provision made sense to Baruch and Truman: The Soviets were the most likely to violate the agreement, so allowing them to veto sanctions against themselves would surely be a case of moral hazard.

That change doomed the plan. The Soviet ambassador to the United Nations, Andrei Gromyko, earned the nickname "Mr. Nyet" for his forceful denunciation of the Baruch plan. Correctly sensing that the purpose of the plan was to stymie Soviet proliferation, Gromyko issued a counterproposal a few days later that inverted the order of the American plan: First, nuclear weapons would be abolished and any nuclear nation (that is, the U.S.) would have to destroy its stockpile, and then all uranium reserves could be internationalized.

As a non-proliferation strategy, the Gromyko plan made no sense. There was no political or military logic for the U.S. to voluntarily disarm without guarantees that other powers would be prevented from covertly arming.

There was no way the Americans would agree to his proposal, but Gromyko argued skillfully that the suspension of the veto would violate the U.N. Charter and tied the Baruch plan down in procedural debates until November 1949. By that point, the Soviets had the bomb, the issue was moot, and arms control went back to the drawing board.

An unintended casualty of the failure of the Baruch plan was to marginalize the idea of controlling proliferation through controlling nuclear materials. Uranium ore was no longer at center stage. Both superpowers had nuclear weapons, and arms control shifted to controlling the number of weapons and keeping a lid on the "know-how" of making bombs. But information tends to slip through cracks, and the rest, sadly, is now history.

The new U.N. resolution, and the approach it embodies, is tremendously encouraging. The most crucial issue now is not to replay the procedural quagmire of 1946-49, and bring the attention squarely and permanently back on materials.

Gordin is an associate professor of history at Princeton University and the author of the just-released "Red Cloud at Dawn: Truman, Stalin and the End of the Atomic Monopoly."

— By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post

Why Haryana women keep off politics
by S.S. Chahar

THE issue of political empowerment of women has been on the agenda of the Inter-Parliamentary Union for over three decades. The first concrete step for empowering women was taken by the Narasimha Rao government when the 73rd and 74th Constitution amendments reserving 33 per cent seats for women in local bodies were passed.

This led to the introduction of the Constitution Amendment Bill, 1996, for reserving 33 per cent seats in Parliament and state legislatures. However, the Bill has been pending since then. On an average the representation of women the in the Lok Sabha is less than 6 per cent and 4 per cent in different state assemblies it is less than 4 per cent. However, in Haryana, it is 6 per cent.

In the 2009 assembly elections, 67 women of the total 1,222 candidates are in the fray involving 37 party nominees and 30 Independents.

A party-wise break-up shows that the Congress leads in putting up the maximum women candidates followed by the BSP, the BJP, the INLD, while the CPI, the CPM and the VHP occupy the lowest rank.

A group of about 10 women has been fielded repeatedly by major political parties. Interestingly, the women have contested in a pocket of 42 constituencies. Major political parties fielded their candidates mainly in a cluster of seven to 14 constituencies. However, in more than 50 per cent constituencies women have never contested the elections.

Despite the favourable Constitutional provisions, the rising female literacy, several welfare schemes started by the state government as well as changing lifestyles due to scientific and technological advancement, women’s participation in the political process has been low.

Reasons for this phenomenon are social, economic and political. Women in Haryana become victims of rigid social customs and traditions, a gender bias and dowry, leading to domestic violence. Kept socially aloof, women are subjected to deprivation and exploitation.

Because of an increasing rate of criminalisation and commercialisation of politics, women feel reluctant to participate in political activity in the state.

The element of dynastic tendencies in nominating women belonging to royal and well-off families negates the participation of ordinary women in politics.

Political activities of women are also discouraged by a highly restrictive socio-economic system. They are forced to refrain from participating in the electoral process of the state as is evident from the fact that they constitute only 3.4 per cent of the 12,006 contestants in the ongoing 2009 assembly elections.

Each political party has stood for women’s participation in the electoral politics in a big way. The political parties that feel shy of putting up women candidates promise them a reservation of seats in their in their respective
manifestos.

But in practice they are not prepared to give adequate space to them except for mouthing political platitudes during the elections. Women are welcome as voters but not as representatives. Therefore, they could nominate only 215 nominees whereas 199 contested as Independents.

Women have to travel a long way before they can be equated with men, particularly in the political field. The questions which are linked to their increased political participation and thus need to be addressed are: how to reach women in the remote and backward areas, how to create awareness among men and women about their respective roles and responsibilities, how to make everyone concerned that a girl child is an equally important member of a family and how to get women’s political role accepted in society?

For findings answers to these questions we need to put in concerted efforts. We need a sensitive judiciary and vigilant women’s organisations. Women representatives in local bodies have to prove their worth for making their claims to the higher legislative bodies.

Women’s participation in politics in proportion to their number is the most effective instrument of removing the inherent and deep-rooted inequality and bias against them in society.

The writer is a professor of political science at M.D. University, Rohtak.

Borlaug had backed ‘gene revolution’
by Arabinda Ghose

AT the end of the Second World War in 1945, the UNO set up the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) for rebuilding agriculture in the world. Its task was, and still is, to reshape agriculture and enable countries to produce sufficient foodgrains in order to feed the hungry millions.

A British dignitary, Lord Boyd Orr, was appointed the first Director General of the FAO. After taking charge of the Rome-based FAO, Lord Boyd Orr had made this famous statement: “You cannot build peace on empty stomachs”

Dr Borlaug, the only agricultural scientist in the world to have won a Nobel Prize, passed away on September 12, aged 95. A great friend of farmers, Dr. Borlaug was a frequent visitor to India and played a key role in ushering in the Green
Revolution.

The last time he came to India was in 2005 when he had presided over the Borlaug Award presentation ceremony on March 16 at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), New Delhi.

Even when in failing health, Dr. Borlaug had sounded a warning about a catastrophe if “urgent steps are not taken to double foodgrain production in the world by the year 2050”

It is not generally known that the Green Revolution had come to both India and Pakistan at the same time and from the same batch of high-yielding semi-dwarf Lerma Rojo 64 and Sonora 64 seeds, the two new varieties developed in Mexico.

India had ordered 250 tonnes of these seeds and Pakistan 300 tonnes. Both consignments were loaded on to the same ship at Los Angeles and it was decided that the two consignments would be separated at Singapore port.

Just when this operation was to commence at Singapore, the Indo-Pakistan war broke out on September 1, 1965. The consignments were delivered after the war by the beginning of October that year.

By the time the seeds were received at the IARI, it was a little late for sowing, the ideal time being the first week of October. Nevertheless, the seeds proved to be very promising in the tests and Agriculture Minister C. Subramaniam and his capable Secretary B. Sivaraman ordered the import of more of these seeds from Mexico in 1966. The rest is history.

In his speech that day at the IARI Dr. Borlaug had paid tributes not only to Mr. C. Subramaniam, but also to Malik Khuda Buksh, Agriculture Minister of Pakistan, at that time.

Besides, Dr. Borlaug had paid tributes to Prime Minister Zhou-en-Lai of China, Deng Ziaoping , the father of economic reforms in China, and Ha Kang, China’s Agriculture Minister (1978-79) for their vision in the adoption of new technologies for raising foodgrain production in their country.

Dr. Borlaug’s speech, which he had delivered standing even at the age of 91 years, was entitled “From Green Revolution to Gene Revolution”. He had said, in the context of some people objecting to the use of chemical fertilizers: “Use all the organic fertilizers available for cultivation, but then (chemical) fertilisers have to be used for raising production and for staving off hunger”.

He had not only eulogized those who used Bt cotton, but said similar genetic manipulation would be needed for other crops too. “My biotechnology dream”, he had said, “is to see such genes introduced in seeds of cereals such as wheat, maize, sorghum, barley etc.

Pleading for more investment in agriculture worldwide, Dr Borlaug had said that the world spent some $900 billion every year on armament, 56 per cent of this by the US alone while 800 million people in the world still suffered from hunger.