 |
|
NC regains ground A fractured verdict |
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Jayalalithaa rejected BJP committed a fatal error in TN ALTHOUGH the DMK-led front’s success was assured, the unprecedented rout of the AIADMK alliance is an unexpectedly crushing blow to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and the BJP leadership that had rooted for her. And the reasons are all too obvious.
Futuristic weapons for the
Army
Sonia of Urbasano
Voters punish arrogance NEWS ANALYSIS
|
NC regains ground WITH the Congress' graph looking upwards all over the country, it is no surprise that the party has done reasonably well in Jammu and Kashmir. It has staged a comeback of sorts in the Jammu region at the cost of the BJP. On the other hand, the National Conference has shaken off the disappointment of the 2002 Assembly elections by retaining two Lok Sabha seats in the Kashmir valley. The Ladakh seat is peculiar, in that it has been won by an Independent Buddhist, Mr Thupstan Chhewang, who was fielded by the Ladakh Union Territory Front (LUTF), considered close to the Congress. The Congress-PDP combine thus has four seats while the National Conference has the other two. The victory of National Conference president Omar Abdullah from Srinagar for the third consecutive term is on expected lines. But the other seat of Baramullah was virtually handed over to the party by the PDP and the Congress when they decided to have a friendly contest there. The two Valley seats have given a new lease of life to the National Conference although it has surrendered one (Anantnag) to the ruling People's Democratic Party president Mehbooba Mufti. It had won all the three seats in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections but had fared badly in the 2002 Assembly elections. While the main issues in the valley were the peace process and the performance of the Mufti government, Jammu concentrated on local matters and Women's Bill. In the Jammu seat, there are a dozen border segments which had respite from violence following the Prime Minister's peace initiative. However the BJP failed to cash in on the goodwill. In Ladakh the key debate was on the UT status and Ladakhi identity. Violence brought down voting percentage considerably, which also had a bearing on the poll outcome in some constituencies. But the very fact that so many people defied bullets to exercise their right is an abiding testimony to the Kashmiris' faith in democratic values. There has been a change in government at the Centre but the residents of the State fervently hope that this will not slow down the peace process pushed forward by Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee. |
|
A fractured verdict KARNATAKA seems to be in for a fresh bout of instability following the fractured verdict in the State Assembly elections. In the 224-member House, the ruling Congress managed to secure only 65 seats, way behind the half-way mark of 113 needed to form the government. Following the early leads gained by the BJP, Chief Minister S.M. Krishna conceded defeat and submitted his resignation to Governor T.N. Chaturvedi. The BJP has emerged as the single largest party in the new Assembly by winning 79 seats. Its pre-poll alliance partner, the Janata Dal (United), has got five seats. But still, the BJP is 29 short of the majority required to form a government. Undoubtedly, former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular), with 58 seats in its kitty, holds the key to the formation of the next government. Without its support, neither the Congress nor the BJP can form the government. It is not yet clear what kind of coalition would finally emerge in the state. Mr Deve Gowda’s antipathy for the state Congress leaders is well known. He is expected to handle the issue directly with Mrs Sonia Gandhi. Will the JD (S) join a Congress — or BJP — led government or decide to extend support from outside? Mr Deve Gowda has strong likes and dislikes for the chief ministerial aspirants in all the three camps — the Congress, the BJP and the JD (S). Although the BJP has lost power at the Centre, its performance in the Lok Sabha elections from Karnataka is remarkable. Of the 28 seats, the BJP has 18, the Congress eight and the JD (S) two. Years of hard work by leaders like Mr Ananth Kumar and Mr Yediyurappa plus Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s image seemed to have worked wonders in both the Lok Sabha and the Assembly elections. Contacts have taken place between the BJP and the JD (S). However, with the change of guard at the Centre, it is doubtful whether Mr Ananth Kumar succeeds in becoming the Chief Minister with the JD (S) support. Apparently, Mr Deve Gowda might find it easy to negotiate with the Congress instead of the BJP. |
|
Jayalalithaa rejected ALTHOUGH
the DMK-led front’s success was assured, the unprecedented rout of the AIADMK alliance is an unexpectedly crushing blow to Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and the BJP leadership that had rooted for her. And the reasons are all too obvious. Apart from the AIADMK administration alienating influential sections, such as government employees who were the victim of her high-handedness, the critical factor was the BJP dumping the DMK as an ally. Once out of the NDA, the DMK had little choice but to join hands with the Congress, regardless of a history of mutual antagonism. The AIADMK had already driven all other parties, including the Left, into the arms of the DMK and the MDMK and PMK also followed suit by leaving the NDA. Sheer electoral and caste arithmetic, which matters more than performance, made the combine unbeatable. Thus, it was sweet revenge for Mr M Karunanidhi’s DMK, which had been defeated in the 2001 assembly elections despite a good record of governance and development. Yet, if the BJP fared badly, it was because its local unit supported by a section of the national leadership not only cast their lot with the AIADMK but were dictated to, even in the choice of their candidates and constituencies, by Ms Jayalalithaa. The BJP paid the price for submitting to her autocratic arrogance. In contrast, the DMK was generous even to its smaller allies. The Congress gain, from two to 10 seats is a revival of the arithmetic when the Congress successfully rode piggyback on one or the other regional party; and only one national party can succeed by this alliance formula. In Tamil Nandu polities, no national party can fight election on its own. What matters is a correct choice of a local partner. Thought for the day There’s only one way you can fail, and that’s to quit.
— Brian Hays |
Futuristic weapons for the Army UNDER an “aggressive” modernisation drive, the
Army is acquiring latest gadgets so that it can be on a par with the armed forces of developed countries. Ballistic helmets, equipped with infrared night-vision devices and strong torch lights are currently under trial and can soon become a part of the soldier’s dress, Director-General of Ordnance Services Lt-Gen R.S. Shahrawat said in New Delhi on Wednesday. The
Army is also contemplating equipping soldiers with global positioning system on watches, which will help in identifying soldiers’ locations. The overall uniform and footwear of the troops will also be upgraded, General Shahrawat said. “Some of the equipment planned to be inducted is under trial to check their performance and see whether these meet our requirements,” he said. The government has also cleared acquisition of more bulletproof jackets and helmets for troops involved in counter-terrorism operations in Jammu and Kashmir and the Northeast, he added. A revolution is being brought in the Indian
Army by introducing latest weapon system and information technology. A Rs 3000 crore modernisation plan approved by the Ministry of Defence in 2003 seeks to increase the infantryman’s fire power at least tenfold with about 250 Kornets — E anti-tank guided missiles launchers, light bullet-proof vehicles, 4000 new carbines, 200 plus battlefield surveillance radars, 4.5 lakh rounds of multi- purpose ammunition and much more. The newly acquired capabilities and weapons have changed the thinking of the Indian
Army’s brass. They now feel that Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) will be able to face the enemy with more than ten-fold strength and defeat it to pieces. The Pentagon defines RMA as “a major change in the nature of warfare brought about by innovative application of new technologies, which combined with dramatic changes in military doctrine and operational and organisational concepts fundamentally alters the character and conduct of military operations”. This now means that there will be much more than merely weapon improvement. It means fighting in a futuristic digital technology spectrum with laser guided munitions, satellite surveillance, and a lot more 21st century gadgetry. Information technology will play a very important role in the use of modern weapon system. The RMA knock has woken the
Army to a new realisation. However, they do not still have a war doctrine which is a must to fight a successful war. The
Army Training Command (ARTRAC) was given charge of drafting a doctrine half a decade ago. The
Army cannot fight a successful war without the support of navy and air force. Hence, a proper military doctrine is required to be formulated so that all the arms and supporting services are well integrated and work like a well-greased machinery. The infantryman today is gradually acquiring the kind of firepower and precision that was once with artillery and armour. As many senior officers believe it is this firepower coupled with high-tech sensors, surveillance equipment, and night fighting capability that has made infiltration from across the borders almost negligible. Today the infantryman has become a night stalker with about 5000 hand-held thermal imagers (HHTIs), 8000 night vision goggles and hundreds of long-range reconnaissance and observation systems in his hands. He can see deep, and strike in the pitch dark in the enemy territory without being observed by them. After years of neglect when shopping meant only big-ticket items like tanks and artillery guns the infantryman is getting empowered. Field battle equipment like the Israeli designed and Bharat Electronics assembled battlefield surveillance radars are also effectively used in non-conventional situation like counterinsurgency. It can pick up a walking man from 15 km, a group of men from 18 km, a moving tank from 20 km and a moving helicopter from 25 km away by an infantryman. The Chief of the
Army Staff, General Nirmal Vij, says: “Total firepower has increased multifold in the last three years and the most notable sign of modernisation has been the elimination of the infantryman’s night blindedness.” A good number of lethal weapons have been bought off the shelf from Russia, Israel, France, South Africa, Sweden, Germany and the US. Technology for these weapons is prevalent in India too. For example, Bharat Electronics is now making hand held thermal imagers while the Tata owned Nalco is manufacturing unattended ground sensors. Short range battlefield surveillance radars were imported from Israel; now Bharat Electronics plans to make them with homegrown DRDO technology. The
Army is busy in upgrading not only the infantry but also other combat (armour and artillery) and support arms (signals and engineers), which hold the key to victory in the conventional war battle. The 155 mm Bofors guns and Grad multi-barrel rocket launcher (MBRL) stole the show in the Kargil war but the
Army is already thinking of the next generations of these weapons. The Russian offer of Smirch MBRL which can pulverise Skardu in Pakistan from the Indian side of the Line of Control (LoC) is being considered. There is also a proposal to buy more self-propelled guns. The contest is between Bofors FH-77, BD-SPH and South Africa’s Denel G-6. Complimenting them are Fire Finder Radars already acquired from the US. Upgrading infantry fighting vehicles with Konkurs missiles, the T-90s with anti-tank guided missiles, Grad BM-21 multi-barrel rocket launchers (one salvo of 40 can plough out a football ground) and the newly acquired Krasnopol ammunition with passive homing device has increased the
Army firepower as never before. The Army is talking of 90 percent hit probability with every round it fires. A conventional or nuclear war is a distant possibility. However, the insurgency from across the borders and within the country is likely to continue. It is, therefore, essential that infantry is well equipped with light weapons and night firing capabilities so that the infiltrators and insurgents are eliminated before they can cause any damage to the civilian population and property. The other arms like armour, artillery, signals and engineers who fight hand in hand with infantry during offensive operations should also be trained in the counterinsurgency operations and should also be equipped with light weapons and night fighting equipment. This is possible only when military doctrine is formulated at the highest level and acted upon accordingly. There is a need to train paramilitary forces in counterinsurgency operations under the
Army when they operate with the military, as they have neither the equipment nor the proper training to tackle the
insurgents. |
Sonia of Urbasano VERY few Indians know about the rural background of Sonia Gandhi. She was born and bred in village Urbasano near Torino city of Italy. Her father was a mason and she went to Cambridge for higher education on Italian government scholarship. There she met Rajiv Gandhi and the friendship between the two, culminated into their marriage. During 1970, I entered the portals of University of Paris for my doctoral research. In summer, all students were asked to vacate the university hostels for a month. During 1971 summer holidays, I went on tour of Italy and reached Torino where my old colleague, Avtar Singh Rana, from Guru Nanak Engg. College, Ludhiana was employed as an engineer in the Fiat factory. We planned our tour and Rana proposed to show me village life of Italy during the weekend. Next day, we took the route to Urbasano. Rana told me jokingly that Indian Prime Minister’s son, Rajiv Gandhi, is married to signora Sonia whose family lives in this village. He knew Sonia’s parents as her brother-in-law was also employed as an engineer in the Fiat factory. On reaching Urbasano, we stopped at a street shop for a while. The girl at the counter, recognising me as an Indian, offered cold drinks and told us that she is a friend of Sonia. Our next stop was at Sonia’s house in Urbasano where his father entertained us to tea and made lot of enquiries about Punjab and the Sikhs. Italians are talkative in nature and so was Sonia’s father. The family owned a modest house in Urbasano in 1971. Rana got married and moved out of Torino city. He purchased a house in Urbasano to reside near his Fiat factory. In 1985, I was visiting Europe on a research fellowship. From Rome, I called Rana who was pleased to know my itinerary. He guided me to reach Urbasano by a local bus when I reach Torino on my way to Paris. I was excited to meet my friend and his family. Next morning, Parminder, Rana’s wife, forbade me to go for a morning walk. After 1984 riots in Delhi. Sonia’s family was provided a security cover by the Italian government. My wish to walk again in the streets of Urbasano was never fulfilled. I left Sonia’s village with heavy heart and took the train to
Paris. |
Voters punish arrogance
What went wrong for J. Jayalalithaa? Was it merely the anti-incumbency factor? The election results show there were many more reasons. To begin with, the NDA government’s much touted and publicised “India Shining” and the “Feel Good” factor were non-starters in this Dravidian state. After a drought for three years in a row, it was rather the “feel distress factor” in rural Tamil Nadu, which was evident with farmers. Even after court cases and loud protests throughout the state, Ms. Jayalalithaa failed to procure water from the Cauvery in Karnataka for the Thanjavur delta in southern Tamil Nadu. The entire state has been suffering due to a severe drinking water crisis but Ms. Jayalalithaa made promises only. The southern part of the state was an AIADMK stronghold with the presence of the powerful business community, the Thevars, which has always firmly stood with the lady. But this time, they shifted their support to the DPA-Congress front. The collapse of the famous handloom sector of Tamil Nadu without any rehabilitation scheme further worsened the condition of the toiling masses, leading to more suicides. At the same time the AIADMK supremo’s arrogance and politics of vendetta did go down well with the electorate. Though thousands of miles apart the Tamil psyche is similar to the Punjabi psyche. People in general here too do not like vindictiveness of any kind. After winning the state Assembly elections in 2001 with a comfortable margin Ms. Jayalalithaa committed her first mistake within a month by arresting DMK president Dr. M. Karunanidhi on charges of corruption, which later fell flat in the court. The police also arrested then sitting Union industry minister Mr. Murasoli Maran and Union environment minister Mr. T.R. Balu on charges of preventing government servants on duty. Surprisingly though the leaders were available, the police conducted midnight raids in their houses and physically lifted them. This was telecast by all television channels and people saw how an elderly man like Dr. Karunanidhi was manhandled when he was picked up from his bed by the police. Her next mistake was when she invoked the POTA on the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) leader Mr. Vaiko. His party was in the AIADMK front till 1998 and when she came to power, Ms. Jayalaithaa was looking for an opportunity to fix him. When Mr. Vaiko gave a speech morally supporting struggle by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelaam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka for which a large number of Tamils have a soft corner, Ms. Jayalalithaa promptly called him a terrorist and put him behind bars for 18 months. Mr. Vaiko was released following court orders just a few months before the elections and he was one of the DPA’s star campaigners who drew more crowds than even Dr. Karunanidhi. Then came the strike by the state government employees. The way she reigned in the strikers was lauded by all sections of the society but when she went to the extent of dismissing all of them and imprisoning their leaders, the people did not support her actions. The number of state government employees in Tamil Nadu is 1.2 million perhaps the highest in the country and theyaccount for around five to six million votes. The strike by agitating medicos were also put down by the state government though not in the same sever manner. The coming together of state government employees, students and unemployed youth no doubt dealt a severe blow to Ms. Jayalaithaa’s electoral game plan. During the last three years of her rule she had become so arrogant that the Tamil Nadu Assembly’s committee on privilege issued arrest warrants against four journalists of The Hindu. Only when there was an uproar throughout the country and the paper’s management moved courts, did the lady backtrack. Her campaign plank about the foreign origin of Congress president Ms. Sonia Gandhi did not cut any ice with the voters who have been struggling to make both ends meet. Taking all these issues into account Dr. Karunanidhi went for an electoral alliance with the Congress. The sheer electoral arithmetic with the DMK’s 28 per cent vote bank in Tamil Nadu, the Congress’ 18 per cent and 14 per cent of the other smaller parties of the DPA add up to 60 per cent of the total vote bank. In fact, Ms. Jayalalithaa had lost the battle long before it began when the DPA aligned with the Congress and she tied her knot with the BJP. For the BJP it was a political harakiri. A large section of the BJP workers, though the party hardly has any presence in this state, did not work in many constituencies for the AIADMK-BJP combine. Though Ms. Jayalalithaa feels the verdict of the Tamil Nadu voters is not against her government, in her heart she knows that her days as Chief Minister are numbered, particularly because of the relation she shares with Ms. Sonia Gandhi. The Tamil Nadu Congress has already demanded her resignation while other DPA parties have said they would demand imposition of President’s rule followed by Assembly elections, once the government at the Centre is formed. While the DPA-Congress formation will continue, the BJP will certainly fare better if it distances itself from the ruling AIADMK for the next assembly elections. |
|
NEWS ANALYSIS
The party’s self-esteem had touched a new low, its party cadres were demoralised while questions were raised about Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s abilities to contain the party’s downslide. In other words, the party stopped believing in itself. Nobody, not even the most optimistic of the partymen, would have imagined that the Congress would bounce back to emerge as the single largest party in the 14th Lok Sabha. But somewhere along the line, the Congress managed to get its act together. Instead of allowing itself to slip into despondency, Sonia Gandhi and her team of key strategists took on the arduous task of putting the party back in the electoral race. As a first step, both Mrs. Gandhi and the party went in for an image make-over. The Congress President cast aside her “sphinx-like” persona, stepped out of her shell and embarked on an exhaustive “road show.” She reached out to the people of the rural hinterland, talking to them not about macro issues but about their local problems. The message was loud and clear: this was
Mrs. Indira Gandhi in a new avatar as Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and this was the old Congress, the party closely identified with the interests of the rural poor and the deprived sections. At the same time, the Congress shed its “touch-me-not” image. It was quick to follow up on its Shimla
Declaration as it got down to the serious business of reaching out to potential allies in the secular camp. The Congress President took the lead in stitching these strategic alliances as she called up DMK chief M.
Karunanidhi, walked across to Lok Janshakti leader Ram Vilas Paswan’s house and dropped in for a cup of tea with one-time bete noire Sharad Pawar. The results clearly demonstrate that it is these alliances which eventually paid off. It is also ironic that Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was hailed as the architect of building successful alliances, actually allowed key players like the DMK to leave the NDA. On the other hand, the Congress, once notorious for not sharing power, appeared to have learnt some important lessons from the NDA experiment. If this election is all about successful alliances, it is also about the NDA’s over-hyped and disastrous
campaign. The “India Shining” advertisements and the repeated declarations
about improved economic indicators found few takers as the reality just did not match these claims. The Congress was quick to grasp this message. The party went back to its “pro-poor” image as its election campaign went into an overdrive to expose this obvious disconnect between India and Bharat. The strategy worked and the election results have held out hope for the Congress. It is set to taste power after sitting out in the opposition for nearly a decade. But, more than that, this election could well mark the revival of the Congress. The results have demonstrated that the grand old party is still relevant, although it may have been overtaken by important regional players. The raging debate about Mrs. Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origins has been settled by the electorate while niggling doubts about her capabilities to lead the party have all vanished. On the flip side, the election also holds out bitter lessons for the Congress. Its rout in Kerala, and its dismal performance in Punjab and Karnataka, have demonstrated that the electorate is in no mood to tolerate infighting or incompetence. Although its overall improved performance has deflected immediate attention from the Congress party’s poor showing in these three states, the leadership will have to do some serious introspection and set its house in order. If it gets too busy with governance and fails to
address these ailments, it could end up going the BJP way. |
According to Karma Yoga, the action one has done cannot be destroyed, until it has borne its fruit; no power in nature can stop it from yielding its results. — Swami Vivekananda Speak the truth and realise the Lord within; for, He is not far from you. You have only to see Him intuitively. — Guru Nanak A real teacher is he who is well-versed in the Vedas, sinless and unsmitten by desire. — Sri Adi Sankaracharya What I say to you, I say to all. Watch, watch and pray, lest you should be tempted. The spirit truly is ready, but the flesh is weak. — Jesus Christ
|
| HOME PAGE | |
Punjab | Haryana | Jammu & Kashmir |
Himachal Pradesh | Regional Briefs |
Nation | Opinions | | Business | Sports | World | Mailbag | Chandigarh | Ludhiana | National Capital | | Calendar | Weather | Archive | Subscribe | Suggestion | E-mail | |
THE electorate in Tamil Nadu has created a record of sorts by voting all the 39 seats in favour of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Democratic Progressive Alliance and the Congress while the ruling AIADMK-BJP combine has scored a duck. In the electoral history of Tamil Nadu it had never happened that a ruling party could not win a single Lok Sabha seat and that too with a poll tieup with the ruling party at the Centre. 
IT is the proverbial case of the slow and steady winning the race. Six months ago when it lost three key state governments, the Congress was clearly the underdog. It was written off by the media and political pundits alike as a spent force.