The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

PAKISTAN
Protest leaves hope for democracy
The demand for Nawaz Sharif’s resignation has entered a stalemate and the govt seems to have survived, for now. But Imran is not a loser either, for his protest may have triggered a process of electoral reforms, and a national awakening against the corrupt ways of government.
By Afzal Khan in Islamabad

SETTLING DOWN: Pakistani supporters of Canadian cleric Tahirul Qadri erect a tent during an anti-government protest in front of the Parliament building in Islamabad on Saturday. AFP

Pakistan is currently in the grip of a debilitating political crisis that has paralysed Islamabad and the Central government, dealt a body blow to the economy and taken a heavy toll of social and civic life across the country. Its image abroad stands badly damaged.

First, the President of Sri Lanka cancelled his trip and now there is a big question mark on the much-awaited visit of the President of China, the country’s closest friend, who was expected to announce nearly $34 billion worth of investment in Pakistan’s infra-structure and energy mega projects.

The three weeks of the longest ever standoff on the strategic Constitution Avenue, which houses key government buildings close to the diplomatic enclave, has also raised the spectre of direct or indirect military intervention amid fears of violent clashes between protesters and the police.

Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan and Canada-based cleric Allama Tahirul Qadri have led parallel ‘dharnas’, or sit-ins, while pledging to oust the Nawaz Sharif government, dismantle Parliament, reconstitute the election commission and install a caretaker government ahead of mid-term polls. Both have different ideologies, objectives and motivation. Qadri has no place in national politics but commands a cult allegiance of tens of thousands of devotees beholden to his religious beliefs and willing to even lay their lives for him.

Hero of the middle class

Tahirul Qadri raises a cricket bat while addressing supporters in front of Parliament House on Friday. He lacks mass appeal, but commands a dedicated set of followers. Reuters

Imran Khan enjoys vast popularity in the country and has created a new constituency of middle and lower middle class educated men and women who had previously shunned politics and never voted in elections. He has particularly energised the youth by his ideas and charismatic personality, inspiring them to stand up against corruption, social and economic injustices and the rule of a small oligarchy. While criticising Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, he has underpinned his insular style of governance in installing family members at key positions in the federal government and the most populated Punjab province, where his brother Shahbaz Sharif is chief minister. He further alleges that the Sharifs have used political power to multiply wealth, which has been stacked outside.

Imran Khan launched his anti-government agitation after being unable to elicit a response from the government, the election commission and the judiciary to the allegation of rigging in the elections, which he alleges was overseen by Nawaz himself, hence the demand for his resignation. He wants electoral reforms, an independent election commission and genuinely neutral government to supervise free and fair election.

Qadri’s fiery speeches and theatrics for a ‘revolution’ in total rejection of the existing system has failed to mobilise popular support, though he does drop hints of covert army backing. Neither the government nor the media took him seriously. But the determination of his disciplined followers to confront the police and paramilitary Rangers has raised fears of violence that actually erupted in late August when he ordered his men and women to advance towards Parliament and the Prime Minister House, leaving three dead and over 500 injured. Imran also backtracked from his earlier commitment and supported the decision to move beyond D-Chowk, which he had to withdraw again.

Mishandling

For weeks Nawaz Sharif and his ministers had allowed the crisis to deepen by their inept handling of the situation. First, on June 17, the Punjab government unleashed an unprovoked police action against Qadri’s unarmed supporters in Lahore, killing 14 people and wounding over 80 allegedly by firing. The unprecedented incident evoked public outrage and built pressure on Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif to resign, which he has refused to do.

Imran Khan gestures to supporters during the protest near the PM’s residence on Friday. He has emerged a hero among the middle class, though he is now left with no face-saving exit. AFP

The bloodletting on Constitution Avenue and fears of the unruly mob seizing key buildings stirred strong reaction in the country. The army top brass met out of schedule and issued an ominous warning apparently directed towards the government to shun the use of force and urgently find a negotiated resolution of the crisis. In panic, Nawaz Sharif requested the army chief, General Raheel Sharif, to undertake a ‘facilitative’ role. The General invited Imran and also held several hours of meetings with Qadri to hear his grievances.

Under pressure, Nawaz accepted five out of six of Imran’s demands, but the latter insisted on his resignation, which has received little public and media support because of being illogical and irrational. At the peak of his campaign, Imran’s missteps like the impracticable call for civil disobedience and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) lawmakers’ resignations from assemblies have only backfired.

Protest weakens

Over the period the number of protesters has steadily dwindled and weariness has overtaken the entire nation. But a stubborn Imran Khan and equally determined Qadri have refused to budge from their demands and appear ready to resist crackdown that would certainly lead to violence and bloodletting that the government is hesitant to risk. By repeating his impossible resolve not to end the sit-in without forcing Nawaz Sharif to resign, Imran has forced himself into dead end, where he has little chance to find a face-saving exit.

Last week, Nawaz Sharif paid heed to advice from PPP leaders Khurshid Shah and Aitzaz Ahsan and made a smart move of convening a joint session of Parliament, where he enjoys overwhelming support. In four sessions Parliament struck its fine moment of unity to extend strong support to the Prime Minister. The joint session was designed to achieve two objectives: Shfting the focus away from protesters who have received uninterrupted 24-hour live coverage, fomenting further unrest, and, more importantly, to send a message to the army that the political and civil society are firmly united behind the elected Prime Minister and would not accept any assault on democracy.

There is certainly pressure building on Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri to end their protest and seek some kind of deal on electoral reforms with the government. With the thinning crowd on D-Chowk, both leaders have to seek a way out of the present logjam.

The government on the other hand is feeling the heat of the escalating economic cost of the protracted crisis, the threat of violence and army reaction if things get out of control. The efforts to revive the Chinese President’s visit also depend on an early end to protests in the capital’s streets and elsewhere in the country.

Back to politics

In a reversal of fortunes, Imran Khan got a shot in the arm from unexpected quarters on Friday. The irrepressible Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan unleashed a tirade against PPP leader Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan in response to a speech a day earlier in which he had warned Nawaz Sharif to beware of his ‘close coterie of ministers’ who remain unchanged from his two previous rule.

Nisar accused Aitzaz of turning his politics into business, being legal adviser to land mafia and seeking permits for LPG. It provoked a fierce reaction from the PPP, which has hitherto supported Nawaz. Khurshid, Leader of the Opposition, directly accused Nisar of conspiring to become prime minister. Aitzaz eloquently defended himself against Nisar’s charges and made counter-allegations.

The entire proceedings in the House on Friday were consumed by the controversy triggered by Nisar. The Prime Minister personally apologised to Aitzaz and stopped Nisar from reacting on the floor. Nisar then announced he would hold a news conference on Saturday to clarify his position but was again dissuaded from doing so for fear he would stir new controversy. Parliament will resume debate on Monday.

Quiet hand of the army

Acting apparently behind the scenes, the army has encouraged both Imran and the government to reach a settlement. It is apparent that Imran will not get the PM’s resignation but will have to be content with an impartial of audit of votes, drastic electoral reforms and foolproof mechanism for free and fair elections. This in itself would be no mean achievement. He has aroused tremendous public pressure against any future manipulation of polls.

The Dawn hoped that Nawaz Sharif had also learned some lessons from the crisis that almost threatened to dislodge him in such short time. “Mr Sharif should know that his conduct and demeanour — and that of his ministers — are under intense public scrutiny at the moment,” the paper said in an editorial comment, adding: “If they emerge from this affair a little more humbled, a little more sensitive to the virtues of inclusiveness, and a little more responsive to the needs of the ruled rather than to the prerogatives of the rulers, that in itself would be a promising new start.”

Imran may return without complete success but received a glowing compliment from Aitzaz Ahsan: “His message has struck a deep chord in people’s hearts. His allegations of corruption and rigging are not without substance. He may have to retreat at the head of a vanquished army, but people will remember him as a brave leader.”

A file photo of anti-government protesters during the ‘Revolution March’ in Islamabad. Reuters