The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Reforming the judiciary
Dire need to speed up justice

Union Law Minister M. Veerappa Moily’s Vision Statement on judicial reforms to clear the huge backlog of cases in various courts and speed up the dispensation of justice is well-intended. Introduced during a national consultation in New Delhi, it seeks to strengthen the judiciary through various measures like the creation of a National Arrears Grid (NAG), focus on selection, training and performance assessment of judicial officials and introduction of procedural changes. The NAG, to be headed by a sitting Supreme Court Judge, will analyse the number of arrears in each court and oversee reduction in pending cases in a time bound manner. It also envisages that courts function in three five-hour shifts for which 15,000 new posts of judicial officers — from among retired judicial officers and lawyers — will be created for a two-year period. One-year contractual jobs for retired high court judges and lawyers to hear cases on weekends and in the evenings are also on anvil.

Clearly, these proposals, if implemented properly, will hasten the disposal of cases and help the poor litigants. However, their success will ultimately depend upon the quality, integrity and character of the judges to be appointed. The present system of selection of judges leaves much to be desired. Of late, increasing cases of corruption and moral turpitude among the judges prove that the collegium system has grievously failed to select the right persons for the judiciary. Mr Moily has admitted that the collegium’s increased strength has made the consultation process cumbersome. He also wants the government to have a say in the judges’ appointment.

For the appointment of Supreme Court judges, the Centre is bound by the procedure in accordance with the Constitution Bench’s rulings in 1993 and 1998. As Parliament is the proper forum for making necessary changes to the appointment process, the lawmakers should carefully deliberate over various suggestions and introduce a system that would choose the best and check the entry of malcontents from entering the courts. The Dinakaran episode has exposed the loopholes in the collegium system and affected the judiciary’s fair image. Action against Karnataka High Court Chief Justice P.D. Dinakaran and speeding up the elevation of four other high court chief justices brook no delay.

Epicentre of terrorism
World must ensure Pakistan tackles extremists

US Senator John Kerry’s description of the situation in Pakistan is, indeed, alarming. A Washington-datelined report carrying his startling observations appears elsewhere in The Tribune today. He sees Pakistan fast emerging as the “epicentre of extremism in the world”. In fact, Pakistan has already become the hub of global terrorism with Al-Qaeda having shifted its headquarters to Pakistan from Afghanistan. It is, therefore, not surprising if Pakistan has been rocked by suicide bomb attacks almost every day for some time. What is happening in Pakistan may become uncontrollable in the near future as Al-Qaeda is closely aligned with the Taliban. There is the danger of these outfits capturing the levers of power in Pakistan.

What Senator Kerry has revealed cannot be ignored as he heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He also unsuccessfully fought the US presidential elections when Mr George W. Bush got a second term to occupy the White House. That the ISI-Taliban link continues to remain intact is understandable. The Pakistani external intelligence agency, which is credited with having created the Taliban monster, must be maintaining its connections with the Taliban with the blessings of the top Generals in the Pakistan Army. These Generals and others in the Pakistan establishment cannot think of any better way to protect Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan. It is not without reason that they are very guarded in their language while criticising the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s duplicity on fighting the Taliban poses a serious threat to peace and stability in South Asia and the rest of the world. The war against cross-border terrorism cannot be won unless the Taliban is defeated both in Pakistan and Afghanistan. And this is not possible with Pakistan being insincere in taking on the terrorist monster. The ISI-Taliban link remaining unbroken also proves that Pakistan has not abandoned the use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy. This is a very challenging situation. The world community must try to bear it on Pakistan that it must become serious about tackling terrorist outfits.

Thought for the Day

Whatever is funny is subversive, every joke is ultimately a custard pie... A dirty joke is a sort of mental rebellion. — George Orwell

ARTICLE

A tale of two operations
Pakistan should learn from US experience
by Sushant Sareen

FLUSH with “victory” against the Taliban in Swat, and furious over the assault at Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi, the Pakistan Army was left with no choice but to plunge into what is commonly perceived as the “mother of all battles” against the Islamist insurgents in the Waziristan area. If successful, the Waziristan offensive will certainly deprive the Taliban/Al-Qaeda a formidable redoubt from where they have been plotting and perpetrating terror outrages in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Of course, success in Waziristan won’t put a full-stop to terror attacks. The jihadi virus has spread far too deep and wide in Pakistan for this to happen anytime soon. On the other hand, if the Pakistan Army is unable to wrest control of this area, or if it suffers major reverses and has to stop its ground offensive for any reason, or if it gets horribly bogged down in this treacherous terrain, then there is a danger it might result in a domino effect that could severely destabilise the Pakistani state.

The Swat operation would have certainly raised the morale and confidence of the troops and lent a momentum to future military campaigns against the Taliban. It would, however, be wise to not go overboard in lauding the performance of the Army. In Swat, the Pakistan Army has only wrested physical control of the area from the Taliban. Psychologically, the Taliban continues to instil dread in the minds of the people of the area, more so since the bulk of the Taliban cadre has not only eluded the dragnet of the security forces, but is also able to frequently mount guerrilla attacks against both civilian and military targets.

Until now, the Pakistan Army has fought and won a conventional conflict and that too against an enemy who was heavily outgunned. Given its conventional superiority, the Pakistan Army was always going to win a set-piece battle against the Taliban, who would have found it impossible to stand an onslaught by a regular army using all the firepower at its command. This victory was the easy part, made even easier by the tactic of clearing out the civilian population from the entire area and then using overwhelming force against a lightly armed insurgent group without having to worry too much about collateral damage.

The more difficult part — keeping the peace and restoring a sense of security in the people by ensuring law and order and a terror-free atmosphere — is now going to start. In this new phase, conventional tactics will have to be replaced by counter-insurgency tactics, which in turn could embroil the Pakistan Army in a long and “dirty” sub-conventional war of attrition. As the Army clears out newer areas, the theatre of operation will expand and with it the requirement of troops needed to first hold and then sanitise these areas of the Taliban.

Perhaps this is the reason why the Pakistan Army has adopted measures that it believes will help in preventing a return of the Taliban. One of these measures is the setting of state-supported tribal vigilante groups — Lashkars — that not only defend the “liberated” areas but also assist the Army in hunting down the Taliban cadre. The use of vigilante squads is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, their effectiveness in resisting the Taliban will really be known only after the Army withdraws. On the other hand, if they remain effective, it could lead to an anarchic situation and make the task of restoring law and order very difficult.

The second tactic being adopted by the Pakistan Army is to establish a balance of terror with the Taliban. The mass graves, the hurling out of choppers of captured Taliban cadres and the mutilated bodies of suspected Taliban members found hanging from lamp-posts are all allegedly the handiwork of the Army. It is believed that the Army is not only trying to make an example of the Taliban, but also getting its own back at them for the mutilation of bodies of soldiers who were captured by the Taliban.

For the moment at least, the summary executions of suspected Taliban activists are popular among those who have suffered at the hands of the Taliban. But soon the law of diminishing returns could set in because many innocent people will inevitably become victims if the mass killings continue. This will not only fuel resentment against the Army, but could easily lead to greater support for the Taliban. Worse, the execution of suspects will effectively close the doors to any negotiation or even surrender by the Islamists, thereby prolonging the conflict.

The security dimension is at best only a necessary condition for restoring the lost writ of the Pakistani state in places which had transformed into Islamic emirates. It is just as important to undertake the political, administrative and ideological measures necessary to isolate Taliban. Until now all these three aspects are missing from the strategy of the Pakistani state. But if law and order remains disturbed, the judicial system is inefficient, administrative delivery stays dysfunctional and the local economy doesn’t recover, the people’s sympathy could once again shift in favour of the Taliban.

Therefore, before they tom-tom their success in Swat and compare it with the imminent failure of the US mission in Afghanistan, the Pakistanis will do well to keep in mind the experience of the Americans in Afghanistan. When the Americans launched their offensive against the Taliban in 2001, they had everything going for them — overwhelming superiority, support of anti-Taliban forces and widespread revulsion of Afghans to the Taliban.

Within a couple of weeks the Americans has ousted Taliban from everywhere in Afghanistan. Like the Pakistan Army in Swat, the Americans enjoyed a lot of goodwill. Local communities and warlords collaborated with the foreign forces and helped in hunting down the Taliban activists and settling their scores with them. The air in Afghanistan was pregnant with expectations of the dawning of an era of development, prosperity and stability in that country. Hardly anyone imagined at that time that the Taliban would ever make a comeback.

Eight years later the tables have turned. The Taliban is once again a major force to be reckoned with in Afghanistan. There also appears to be growing public support for the Taliban. The renewed support for the Taliban is a function of many things: the disaffection with the Americans; the inability of the ISAF troops to provide security to local communities; a reaction to the failure of the international community to make any meaningful difference in the lives of ordinary Afghans; a result of the coercion by the Islamists; the continuing support and sustenance that the Taliban elements receive from official and non-official sources in Pakistan; and the natural proclivity of the people to support the side they think will win the war, a conclusion that many Afghans have reached because of the defeatist mindset of the Western forces.

Clearly, if the Pakistanis are to avoid a fate similar to that of the Americans in Afghanistan, they need to get their political, administrative and ideological act together. More importantly, the distinction being drawn between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban or between the Baitullah network of the Pakistani Taliban and other Pakistani Taliban groups (made recently by the Pakistan Army spokesman) need to end once and for all. Otherwise, Pakistan might well win the battle for Waziristan but lose the war to the Taliban.

MIDDLE

Massage networking
by Vivek Atray

When the dreaded early morning bell wakes me up on Mondays, I groan and moan like no man has ever groaned and moaned. The massage man is never late, and he’s never absent. To my sheer chagrin, he turns up week after week and even gives me a mild chiding for looking sleepy and reluctant when I let him in.

His mastery over his age-old craft is such, however, that once he gets to work, one feels rejuvenated with every passing minute and forgets all negativities that had earlier clouded the mind. He goes about his business, pushing, pulling, slapping and knocking me all over the place, with the result that almost every component of the body is woken up and beaten up in no uncertain terms.

If that had been all, life would have been quite simple. But that is not all. There is much more to the massage man.

His ability to double up as a barber is one factor. He insists on giving one a haircut every month. And then he tells one in graphic detail about how he undertakes about 50 such haircutting operations under his tree every day, apart from attending to a dozen home calls.

Many bureaucrats would balk at the idea of getting a haircut from an under-the-tree-barber. Not so the members of the large sarkari network that our man has established over the years. Legend has it, in fact, that our masseur-cum-barber makes his clientele look much better than any glossy and expensive parlour could ever manage.

The real excitement lies, however, in our hero’s ability to handle this huge client network with aplomb, and even to mend strained relationships that sometimes develop between officers. Never has a harsh word escaped his lips, for anyone. He regularly quotes one Sahib ji to another and proclaims to the client at hand that the other Sahib ji has always been full of praise for him.

In fact one often fails to keep track of which particular Sahib ji he is on about, since it is not easy to be on the alert while feeling relaxed during a massage!

At times he takes a break from the action, calls up one of his favourite Sahib jis, and hands the phone to the poor Sahib ji at hand before he can resist, thereby breaking the ice between the concerned officers in no uncertain terms.

I for one have not come across a more self-assured and hard-working man in these parts. He could easily have been a top Sahib ji himself, such are his qualities of head and heart. In a way, he is the top boss even now, for he literally floors quite a few Sahib jis every week!

OPED

Power shortage in Punjab
Demand management is not enough
by Sucha Singh Gill

Punjab is currently passing through an acute shortage of power. The crisis is becoming more serious with every passing year. The shortage of power is expressed in terms of peak load deficit. It is defined as a percentage of excess demand over supply when the demand is on the peak.

The peak load deficit has been growing in the state. It ranged between 23.81 per cent and 32.65 per cent during 1994-95 and 2000-01. As per the 17th electric power survey conducted by the Central Electricity Authority, it was estimated that the peak load shortage would reach 50 per cent in 2008 and stay around this level by 2011-12. These estimates have proved nearly accurate.

The growing shortage is explained by the fast-growing demand over supply. The demand for power grows at a fast rate compared to the overall growth of the economy. The demand for electricity in India grows at 1.52 times of the growth rate of income. This is because of the growing energy/electricity intensity of economic and social activities.

As economic prosperity is experienced by the country, the energy intensity increases in household consumption as well as in industrial and commercial activities. This is evident from the fast-growing market of electricity-operated appliances such as TV sets, refrigerators, air-conditioners, microwaves, etc.

This is a reflection of the growing demand for electricity for household activities. In the same way the wave of automation in the industry and the service sector has considerably added to the demand for electricity. Several activities earlier dependent on human and animal power are now based on electricity.

In Punjab in 1970-71 the percentage of area irrigated by tubewells was 55 per cent which increased to 72.7 per cent in 2007-08. Earlier, more than 50 per cent tubewells were diesel operated, their proportion declined to 22.7 per cent in 2007-08. Fodder cutting was earlier completely based on human and animal power. Now it is done by power-operated machines.

Offices of officers are air-conditioned now and service companies have modern western style offices which are fully air-conditioned. These developments indicate the fast-growing demand for electricity for production of goods and services and the organisation of household activities.

Life has become highly dependent on electricity. Thus, the increased supply of electricity can unleash a large amount of productivity activities. But the shortage of power can paralyse many productive activities.

In a modern economy, the tripping off power brings economy activities to a grinding halt. Production stops the movement power goes off. Thus, the operation of the economy largely depends on the uninterrupted availability of power.

One of the methods of handling the shortage of power is known as demand management through power cuts to control the growing demand. Power cuts hit the hardest those producers who are small and the poor.

In this category a large number of tiny and small industrial units, repair shops or artisans are included who use power-operated machines. They are the producers who may be employing one or two workers who become idle when power remains switched off. They have to pay those workers who are employed on a time rate basis.

The use of inverter and diesel-operated engines is three to four times costlier than the rate at which electricity is supplied by electricity boards or companies. This makes activities of small producers costlier. This quickly makes them unviable paving the way for their being crowded out of competition by producers from the region where regular power supply is available.

The shortage can be managed by a sustained increase in the generation capacity in advance. This is known as the supply management method and is congenial for the development of the economy. It helps in making existing units viable and profitable. The availability of power is an important part of infrastructure which creates external economies for industrial and business units and overcome indivisibilities for future expansions. Thus, adequate availability of power is a factor which attracts new investment to a region from regions and areas chronically suffering from power shortage.

In this context the example of Gujarat can be cited in India in attracting most of investment in business and industry both from India and abroad. The availability of power and other infrastructure has made it an attractive place for investment by companies.

On the other side, Punjab is a negative example in this matter. The chronic shortage of power is driving away investment from the state. The recent reports show that power shortage has crippled the growth of textile and engineering units in Ludhiana.

The disadvantage created by the industrial package by the central government to J&K, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal has been compounded by the chronic power shortage in the state.

The state could have overcome this disadvantage if it was able to create sufficient power generation capacity to convert itself from a power deficit to power surplus state. This could have been done by utilising the state's financial resources in a better way.

The expenditure on power generation would have attracted much more investment by the private sector in industries like agro processing where Punjab has a relative advantage and software where location does not matter as this is free from hassles of raw material transport. This could have doubled the multiplier effect in income and job generation.

People do make a comparison on the power situation in Panchkula, Chandigarh and Mohali to make this point and also with the rest of Punjab. This summer people in the urban areas of the state, like their rural counterparts, suffered power cuts of 7-8 hours. The sufferings of power cuts felt by domestic consumers and entrepreneurs arer driving investment in housing and industry in Punjab to other areas of the country.

Populism has gripped the major political parties in the state and they are not in a position to come out of it. They are not able to understand the simple logic of development and its trajectory. They are not bothered about the declining ranking of the state in the social indicators and per capita income.

This is the reason that when the rest of the country is growing at around 6.5 to 8 per cent per annum, the state is content with the growth rate of 4-5 per cent during the Tenth Plan and has fixed a target of growth rate at 5.5 per cent during the Eleventh Plan compared to the national average of 9 per cent.

The simple act of shifting electricity and food subsidy to investment in the power sector can change the gear of growth of the economy. Investment in power can be made in cleaner sources such as hydropower and solar power to save the fragile environment.

The per capita income of the state has become nearly $ 1,000 which displays a large taxable capacity compared to the 1950s or 1970s. A little effort at better tax compliance and an expansion in the tax base has the potential to generate enough resources for many useful neglected activities in the state.

It is hoped that the new young leadership is able to comprehend this logic and help the government in taking up problems of the people and the region seriously and resort to adding power generation capacity rather than demand management.

The writer is a Professor of Economics at Punjabi University, Patiala.

Air apparent to Kyoto
by Tim Flannery

The international climate negotiations that have been grinding on for years may have crossed a Rubicon of sorts. That's because a new model of engagement for some nations is receiving wide attention. It's shorthanded as "national schedules," and it could get incorporated into the next world climate treaty – the one that replaces the Kyoto Protocol – to be signed in Copenhagen in December.

Under the proposal, nations would list the steps they promise to take to deal with climate change and the reduced emissions they expect each step to result in. The model is drawn from international trade negotiations, in which nations schedule measures taken to free up trade.

There are very important differences between agreeing to Kyoto-type terms and agreeing to list actions on national schedules. Under Kyoto, developed nations are obliged to account for all of their greenhouse gas emissions and to reduce them to a pre-agreed cap by a certain year. Under a national schedules approach, however, countries select a subset of emissions sources to act on and fix, but they do not agree to account for and cap all of their national emissions.

The increased national autonomy this provides, and the simplified accounting resulting from having to deal with a self-chosen subset of emissions, is very attractive to some countries. But the downside is the lack of an overall emissions cap – and therefore the potential for greenhouse emissions to continue to grow.

Still, adding a national schedules option to the global climate treaty makes sense, especially because it could spur climate-saving action in developing nations, which have so far been given a pass by the Kyoto Protocol. India and China, for example, two hefty polluters, are not obliged to account for and cap their emissions. However, getting them to schedule specific actions to reduce some of their emissions could put them on track toward a total cap, not to mention contributing to lower emissions in the meantime.

It's tempting to believe that the proposed mechanism of national schedules may have played a role in the breakthrough announcement by India's environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, on Sept. 18 that India would accept some sort of limits on its carbon emissions.

And it may also have influenced Chinese President Hu Jintao's announcement on Sept. 22 that his country would mandate a "notable decrease" in carbon intensity by 2020. These surprising developments from the world's largest developing economies, which have long declined to engage meaningfully in climate negotiations, have had the effect of revitalizing the negotiations.

While national schedules could play a crucial role in re-engaging developing countries in the climate negotiations, they raise many difficulties. One of the most immediate is their effect on carbon trading – the buying and selling of emission allowances meant to put a (high) price on greenhouse gases.

The Kyoto Protocol, with its accounting of total national emissions, provides a clear mechanism for carbon trading. There's no obvious way for countries on national schedules to participate, so the overall market is likely to shrink. This is bad because it would lower the price of polluting, just the opposite of what is needed for clean-technology innovation.

There is, however, a much more serious problem with national schedules. If the model were to apply to the United States, it would represent a major step backward in controlling greenhouse gases. The U.S. remains the biggest per capita carbon emitter in the world and the only developed nation to have sidestepped Kyoto (Congress never ratified the treaty). It has made no commitment to a national emissions cap. Nor has it had the political will to pass legislation aimed at setting up a national carbon trading system.

If the U.S. is allowed to adopt a national schedule instead of finally agreeing to a national cap, it would almost certainly lead to the failure of Australia and Canada to abide by their agreements to cap emissions. And that in turn would leave the Europeans all but isolated in their adherence to national emissions caps, and the developed world without an overall greenhouse gas target.

— By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post

Extremist threat in Pakistan
by Anita Inder Singh

The enemy has started a guerrilla war”, said Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik in the wake of the recent spate of Taliban attacks on Islamabad, Lahore, Kohat, Peshawar and the military headquarters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan’s former capital, threatening the very survival of the Pakistani state, and forcing the army to strike at the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan.

That statement could explain why and how at least three highly organised extremist groups – al-Qaida, the Pakistani Taliban and anti-India jihadists – linked to one another, have been able to carry out several sophisticated and coordinated strikes against the heavily fortified buildings of their military mentors, especially in Rawalpindi, while top commanders were on the premises.

For guerrillas do not make a headway without some local support. And training, it might be added, from Pakistan’s army and intelligence services for years. Behind the scenes, Pakistani officials have admitted that many mosques, madarasahs and other buildings are havens for extremists throughout their country.

It is likely that individual members of the security forces, inspired by their particular version of Islam, colluded in the attacks as the militants found their way around their targeted areas in all four cities.

The silent majority of Pakistanis is against Taliban thuggery in their country. Public outrage over Taliban brutality in the north-western province of Swat, along with American pressure, spurred the Pakistani army into throwing militants out of the area.

But in the six decades of Pakistan’s existence, a succession of weak civilian and illegitimate military rulers have always been quick to tell the public that Indians, Americans and Israelis are responsible for the country’s problems.

So blame the infidel enemy for everything. That is one reason why the Muslim League, led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted by General Musharraf in 1999, has now joined forces with General Kiyani, the present army chief, in alleging that American attempts to exploit Pakistan’s need for largesse to bring its military under civilian control reflects Washington’s desire to weaken the army and increase Pakistan’s vulnerability to a possible Indian attack.

But that sort of expediency glosses over the fact the army hardly has any counter-insurgency strategy because of its obsession with warding off an Indian offensive.

Meanwhile, the Taliban have never shown any inclination to compromise. Every truce between them and Islamabad broke down because it was used by them to regroup with a view to mounting fresh attacks.

Because extremists have now spread their tentacles throughout Pakistan, the army will find it hard to deliver the coup de grace. Nor can the Taliban deliver the army a knock-out blow. The army’s inability to defend its own headquarters will raise eyebrows: in the long run its credibility will hinge on its ability to assure Pakistanis of their security.

Whether Pakistan’s politicians and generals will overcome their history of getting bogged down in petty quarrels is an open question. They must learn to work in harness and unite their countrymen to foil the multifaceted extremist threat to Pakistan. Only then will Pakistan be able to extricate itself from the mess created by political myopia, stalemate and instability.

The writer is a Professor at the Centre of Peace and Conflict Resolution, New Delhi