The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Pre-poll games in AP
TDP roots for Telangana, wins over a son

Last month’s about-turn by Mr N Chandrababu Naidu in reversing the Telugu Desam Party’s policy to support a separate Telangana state has not prevented the TDP supremo from winning over N T Rama Rao’s son, Mr Nandamuri Balakrishna, to his cause. Mr Balakrishna, an actor, has not only taken the plunge into politics but also cast his lot with Mr Naidu. In rooting for Telangana, Mr Naidu has jettisoned the legacy of NTR, who had founded the TDP on the platform of Telugu pride and stood for an integrated state. This volte face does not appear to have alienated him from all members of the late NTR’s family. On the contrary, the rapturous applause with which Mr Balakrishna was greeted at a mammoth youth convention in Guntur suggests that Mr Naidu is urged on in his actions by the need to counter the emergence of actor Chiranjeevi’s party.

The moves indicate that more surprises may be in store as prevalent political equations in Andhra Pradesh are being reworked. With Andhra Pradesh expected to have assembly and Lok Sabha elections simultaneously, it remains to be seen whether a sub-regional factor can subsume the state and national issues. The TDP’s main strength lies in the coastal Andhra region, and NTR had always emphasised that he stood for uniform development of the state. In order to impress that all three regions – Andhra, Telangana and Rayalaseema – were equally important to him, NTR had once contested elections from three constituencies: one in each of the regions. Mr Naidu himself had been a stout opponent of Telangana and had resisted the BJP’s moves towards creation of a separate state. More recently, he had expelled some prominent pro-Telangana partymen.

Therefore , Mr Naidu now taking up the cudgels for Telangana may be a sign of his being rattled by Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam, which is wooing Telangana somewhat more cautiously. Telangana is a hot issue, with the BJP, the CPI and the TRS favouring a separate state. In the circumstances, Mr Naidu may have felt impelled to wave the flag for Telangana if only to position himself ahead of the other parties. Whether the TDP can make new gains in Telangana by this stand is yet to be tested, though it is certain to cause some erosion of its support in the Andhra and Rayalaseema regions.

A bird under threat
The Great Indian Bustard may lose home

Shamelessly, man has always encroached upon the territory of other species. But here comes a move by the Maharashtra government that jeopardises the safe haven created by the government itself for the highly endangered bird-- the Great Indian Bustard. In a plea to the Supreme Court, the Maharashtra government has sought to reduce the area of the Great Indian Bustard sanctuary by 95 per cent. Strange, for the sanctuary lying between Ahmednagar and Solapur, 400 km away from Mumbai, was set up primarily to conserve the species.

The Great Indian Bustard, a large ground dwelling bird is one of the first birds to be protected under the Wild Animals Protection Act and enjoys the highest protection as a Schedule-I species under the wildlife law. In the early eighties, five states — Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh — adopted conservation measures and declared eight areas as protected. Still, the total number of this bird stands at less than 1000 on the entire planet. The biggest threat to the bird apart from poaching is loss of its natural habitat. The sanctuary in Maharashtra assumes great significance for here the population of the bird has increased.

However, recently the Maharashtra sanctuary has been in the news for wrong reasons. Earlier, the Supreme Court gave clearance for laying a gas pipeline through the sanctuary but with riders. Then locals burnt 50 acres of the sanctuary’s area. Now, the Maharashtra government is readying to curtail the bird’s flight by claiming that limiting the sanctuary size is in the interest of local residents. The Maharashtra government would do well to remember that just as the tiger is the spirit of the Indian forests, the Great Indian Bustard is the symbol of Indian grasslands. Plus, the majestic bird can be an umbrella species of the grassland ecosystems. By conserving it and its habitat many other species of the Indian grasslands can be protected. In the face of short- sighted goals, the bird, which has survived for 50 million years, is on the verge of extinction. Already it has vanished in four sanctuaries. The Maharashtra government has the duty to protect its wild life and not seek permission to skirt it.

Thought for the Day

Man is a tool-using animal... Without tools he is nothing, with tools he is all.
— Thomas Carlyle

ARTICLE

Towards recession
How best India can face the crisis
by S.L. Rao

WE are getting into recession. Inflation will last a few months more but jobs will be lost at the same time. Both rising oil prices and government deficits over two years have caused it. Layoffs have begun and will increase in export industries, information technology, business process outsourcing, hotels, restaurants, airlines, the financial sector, durable consumer products from automobiles to television sets, entertainment electronics, etc. These people need protection and governments must give it to them, especially for the unemployed poor.

Banks must be made not to squeeze distressed borrowers who are slow to repay. The government must provide support to those laid off, and recover the dues when they have jobs. It must honestly implement social programmes like the employment guarantee scheme, and education and health for all. Infrastructure projects must be speedily implemented. All this spending will increase inflationary pressures and the government deficit. But the economy must be taken out of an impending recession.

The combined fiscal deficit of the Central and state governments will exceed 10 per cent of a smaller GDP. GDP growth will fall to nearly 7 per cent this year and, may be, even lower next year. Let us recognise that it is all due to massive government expenditures, including bonds to oil companies in lieu of funds for meeting the losses owing to selling below the cost petrol, diesel, cooking gas and kerosene, large parts of the food and fertiliser subsidies, write-off of around Rs 65,000 crore of farmers’ loans to be reimbursed to banks over a three-year period, acceptance of the Pay Commission’s report, subsequently added to by a higher pay to the armed forces and others.

Inflationary pressures were not just imported by the rising prices of crude. They were stimulated by the rising deficits of the government. The Reserve Bank of India for long resisted reducing interest rates because of inflation and rightly tightened liquidity and raised interest rates. The higher interest rates hurt industrial growth and affected the demand for consumer goods. In earlier months and years cheap and easy consumer finance stimulated sales of cars and entertainment goods, travel, etc. Industrial growth for the last few months was declining or, at best, static. It was made worse by the rising oil prices. They also added to the deficit in the balance of payments and put pressure on the rupee’s external value. The rupee went down from a high to a low of 25 less within nine months!

The sub-prime scandal in the US was due to the bundling of good and bad housing and other loans, giving them high ratings and then their being sold from one bank or financial institution to another. When the house price bubble burst and house prices began to fall, many people could not repay mortgages. Mortgages were bundled together and so these packages began to lose value.

Banks that had lent to other banks on these packages demanded their money back. A banking crisis developed in the US. The loss of confidence then extended to other complex financial products that had led to unregulated global money flows being many times the trade and investment flows. Foreign banks began selling assets everywhere, including India, to shore up their liquidity.

This saw a rush of dollars flowing out of India, causing the rupee value to fall rapidly. India had encouraged foreign investors to invest in Indian stock markets and other areas. The principal route was through Mauritius, which became the largest investor in India. Investors from there did not pay short-term capital gains tax. This brought a flood of money, especially to stock markets. This flood ebbed and flowed as investors booked profits and then invested again. They made money. So did many Indians who round-tripped and cleaned their black money while earning tax-free profit.

The other ingenious method was of “participatory notes”. These enabled volatile funds (including Indian funds) to come anonymously into India. Indian stock markets became a gamblers’ casino for investors who pushed up Indian stock prices to an unprecedented level. When the liquidity crisis broke in the US these investors sold Indian assets even at losses. This created panic in stock markets and huge pressure downwards on the Indian rupee. Foreign banks may also have pulled funds out of India to shore up their liquidity in their home countries. Thus, our liquidity crisis was not entirely imported. It was enabled by our encouraging inflows and outflows of volatile funds.

Inflation seems now to be retreating and our concern must be for employment and growth. Prices are falling due to the falling global demand for industrial products and for crude. The priority must now shift from controlling inflation to stimulating growth through greater liquidity and lower interest rates. The reduction in the repo rate is a beginning but must continue wth more cuts. Banks are now afraid to lend and must get some guarantees to do so. Layoffs in many sectors demand an urgent and comprehensive revival package if a small recession is not to become a long depression. Governments at the Centre and in the states must act. We should not merely, as the RBI Governor seems to want, “react to the developing situation abroad”.

Interest rates must be reduced further. Banks must be temporarily protected by the government as they have recently raised deposit rates, and if they reduced lending rates they will suffer losses. Deposit insurance must cover all deposits and not just Rs 1 lakh deposits as now. Implementation of the Pay Commission recommendations can wait since the government must cut infructuous and unavoidable expenditures if it is not again to let inflation lose.

Banks must have some assurance of protection against borrowers who do not repay. The government must speedily spend on infrastructure development, education and health. The NREG scheme can also stimulate the economy by adding to purchasing power. The government must impose severe penalties on officers and contractors who do not implement these schemes honestly. Short-term capital gains tax must be made applicable equally to all investors, including those from Mauritius. Participatory notes must be stopped, and so must short-selling of Indian stocks. Easy fund repatriation by foreign banks must be at least temporarily stopped, as Malaysia did during the crisis in the 1990s to much criticism but also success in protecting its economy and people.

These actions could help stop recession in India. They will raise government expenditures and deficit. Government employees might protest. The government must cut the deficit as soon as the economy improves. Government employees must be dealt with.

All this has to be done under the shadow of elections. I cannot see any party or leader with the courage to do it. We are, therefore, going to inexorably slide into recession. It might take us two years to resume our growth path.

MIDDLE

Clothes maketh (mars) a woman
by Nonika Singh

Blame her! The sexist blame game shows no signs of ebbing. Defeat in presidential race or sexual assault? Be it the male intellectual sympathetic to her cause or the lecherous man on the road, all possess the liberal license to pass the buck on women, actually on her clothes.

As John McCain grapples with defeat in the US presidential elections, detractors feel that the global meltdown and Sarah Palin did him in. Or was it Sarah’s exorbitantly priced $150,000 fashion makeover? Well, success has many fathers. Failure too must find scapegoats. So discovered by men (who else?) these come mostly in the shape of the feminine variety. Now, this is no defence of Sarah the Republican vice presidential candidate or of her politically incorrect expenses on stylish wardrobe. But, hey, where did men seize the unqualified right to give a dressing down to women? Indeed, from Mars the warring planet where the ground rule is — never concede defeat.

Pass it on the Venetians and maintain a conspiratorial studied silence about male brethren. So reams are consumed about Barack Obama’s enigmatic charm, yet not a word about his $1,500 suits or John McCain’s $520 Ferragamo shoes. But then why create a fuss, when we all know that clothes maketh a man.

And women! They are meant to be marred and scarred by their clothes…. excess(es) as well as lack of it. So what if women permanently stationed in a dream (or is it a fool’s!) world believe a dress can kill. So it does. But the victim is none else than her. The male ogre of the species smug and “sincere” in the presumption — a sexy dress is clear green signal-simply goes ahead and grabs her.

The honourable ones try very hard to read between the lines (actually her curves). Not the ones to be besotted by such trivia as clothes, their verdict is always unanimous and unvarying — beauty and brains do not go together. So each time itsy bitsy Rakhi Sawant or even dear Sarah opens her mouth and puts her foot in it, they stand reassured and vindicated.

The gleam is unmistakable. And the unwritten message beeps — didn’t we tell you a woman seeks attention when she has little else going for her?

Sexiness in the civilised male private dictionary is synonymous with dimwitted. So they keep laughing their guts out at the perennial “dumb blonde” jokes, which actually gives them as much, if not more, kicks as the closeted dirty ones.

In the final countdown, whoever tires of women’s clothes? You bet, not women. One suspects not Sarah either who may have reverted to her good old Alaskan clothes. As for men, you and me can go hoarse with our feminist banter, in the male lexicon with rules framed right in Mars, dowdiness will always be a virtue. Dressing down (figuratively too) will remain both a prerequisite and qualification for sense and sensibility.

OPED

Steadiness could be Obama’s hallmark
by Dan Balz

WASHINGTON - President-elect Barack Obama proved to be one of the most formidable political candidates of the modern era, but with one of the shortest resumes of any recent incoming president, knowing for sure the kind of chief executive he will make is something that will have to wait until he takes office in January.

Obama has not had to demonstrate his skills as a negotiator with balky members of Congress. He has met with foreign leaders, but little is known about how he would handle himself in those gatherings. He has faced no crisis akin to what a president can expect. He has steadfastly resisted being forced to state how the dramatically altered economic and fiscal environment affect his governing agenda. He has skirted some of the tough questions he’ll face in the early weeks of his presidency, particularly on spending.

Still, there are enough clues to an Obama presidency in the 21-month campaign he waged to win the White House to provide a preliminary assessment.

The analogy between campaigning and governing is imperfect, but as the techniques of the permanent campaign increasingly have shaped the modern presidency, the gap is far less than it was a generation ago. Some presidential scholars, political strategists and Obama advisers say the disciplined, cohesive, technology-based and well-oiled campaign may prove a model for the kind of presidency he hopes to run.

For a candidate who began as a novice on the national stage, Obama proved remarkably steady, anchored and unruffled. Those personal attributes, if they are indicative of presidential character, could provide the ballast that any administration needs when turbulence hits - as it did at different times during the campaign. His temperament as a candidate suggests a president not given to highs and lows, and his campaign foreshadows a White House more orderly than that of the two most recent Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.

When others doubted his candidacy in the summer and fall of 2007, Obama stayed true to the course he and his advisers had set at the start of the campaign. When he suffered setbacks at the hands of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., in the primaries, he made readjustments without rancor and kept moving forward. When the financial markets cratered in September, and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., scurried in different directions in response, the measured reaction by Obama and his campaign helped persuade doubters about his fitness to be president.

“They reacted very well under those circumstances, almost a model presidential candidate reaction, compared to McCain, who reacted as a maverick senator,” said political scientist and presidential scholar Charles Jones.

If nothing else, Obama demonstrated enormous talent as a communicator, another key to the modern presidency. Ronald Reagan, a master in front of the camera, is seen as the model against which other presidents are measured. Bill Clinton, though different from Reagan, also was extraordinarily gifted in his ability to connect with people. Obama’s greatest rhetorical gifts have been on display before huge audiences - 125,000 Tuesday night in Chicago’s Grant Park, 200,000 in Berlin, 80,000 at Invesco Field in Denver when he accepted his party’s nomination. Unknown is whether he can be equally compelling in smaller and more intimate settings.

During the campaign, Obama spoke about the need for an ambitious agenda to dramatically expand health care and wean America off its dependence on foreign oil. He outlined a big package of middle-class tax cuts, favours a sizeable stimulus package to spur economic growth and has embraced the government’s $700 billion intervention to shore up financial institutions. The debate that is coming will be over how large his early agenda will be and how quickly he moves to try to enact it.

Whether Obama has deep ideological convictions or a philosophical framework with a pragmatist’s demeanour is something that will become clearer as he begins to put campaign promises into programs and priorities.

One of his senior advisers, speaking before the election on the condition that he not be identified, said Obama is determined to live up to that pledge to reach out to independents, Republicans and critics in an effort to demonstrate that his commitment to trying to unify the country and change the tone of political discourse in Washington.

As an executive, Obama will have to demonstrate his ability to direct an enterprise of significant size and complexity. A presidential campaign pales in comparison to running the federal government, but Obama’s campaign has been described as a model of efficiency, at least in the context of a business as chaotic as running for the White House. Jones offered this caution. A presidential campaign is singularly, even selfishly, focused on two things: the candidate and election day.

A president often doesn’t have that luxury, despite the attention showered on his every move. Events demand attention and reaction. “When you become president, you don’t get to control that in the same way (as in a campaign),” he said. “That’s where we don’t have much evidence. So it’s hard to judge with this fellow.”

— By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post

The “Jurassic Park” man
by Dennis McLellan

Michael Crichton, the doctor-turned-author of bestselling thrillers such as “The Terminal Man” and “Jurassic Park” and a Hollywood writer and director whose credits include “Westworld” and “Coma,” has died. He was 66.

Michael Crichton

Crichton died in Los Angeles on Tuesday “after a courageous and private battle against cancer,” his family said in a statement.

For nearly four decades, the 6-foot-9 writer was a towering presence in the worlds of publishing and filmmaking.

“There was no one like Crichton, because he could both entertain and educate,” Lynn Nesbit, Crichton’s agent since the late ‘60s, told the Los Angeles Times on Wednesday. “His brilliance was indisputable, and he had a grasp of so many subjects-from art to science to technology.

“I respected him so much intellectually and as a writer. I loved him. It’s like losing a very good friend as well as a client of so many years.”

Director Steven Spielberg in a statement Wednesday said, “Michael’s talent out-scaled even his own dinosaurs of ‘Jurassic Park.’ He was the greatest at blending science with big theatrical concepts, which is what gave credibility to dinosaurs again walking the earth.”

Crichton was still in Harvard Medical School when he wrote his first best-seller: “The Andromeda Strain,” a fast-paced scientifically and technologically detailed 1969 thriller about a team of scientists attempting to save mankind from a deadly micro organism brought to earth by a military satellite. It was made into a movie in 1971.

With his success at writing thrillers, Crichton abandoned medicine to become a full-time writer whose novels in the ‘70s and ‘80s included “The Terminal Man,” “The Great Train Robbery,” “Eaters of the Dead,” “Congo” and “Sphere.”

Crichton made his feature film directing debut in 1973 with “Westworld,” which he also wrote, about a fantasy theme park for wealthy vacationers whose fun is spoiled when malfunctioning androids turn deadly.

He directed five other movies in the ‘70s and ‘80s, including “Coma,” “The Great Train Robbery,” “Looker,” “Runaway” and “Physical Evidence.”

As a novelist, Crichton came back stronger than ever in the 1990s with bestsellers such as “Jurassic Park,” “Rising Sun,” “Disclosure,” “The Lost World,” “Airframe” and “Timeline.”

During the same decade, he co-wrote the screenplay for “Jurassic Park,” the 1993 Spielberg-directed blockbuster hit; and he co-wrote the screenplay for the 1996 action-thriller “Twister” with his fourth wife, actress Anne-Marie Martin, with whom he had a daughter, Taylor.

Crichton also created “ER,” the long-running NBC medical drama that debuted in 1994 and became the No. 1-rated series the next year.

Dubbed “The Hit Man” by Time magazine in a 1995 cover story chronicling his “golden touch,” Crichton had more than 100 million copies of his books in print at the time.

Indeed, the prolific writer who closely guarded his private life had become a dominant figure in popular culture.

Known for his intellectual curiosity, energy and drive, Crichton was a self-described workaholic.

When he wasn’t writing fiction, Crichton periodically turned to non-fiction, including “Jasper Johns,” a 1977 portrait of the artist; and the 1988 autobiographical book “Travels.”

He also wrote a book on information technology, “Electronic Life” (1983), formed a small software company in the early ‘80s, designed a computer game and shared a 1995 Academy Award for technical achievement for pioneering computerized motion picture budgeting and scheduling.

The oldest of four children, Crichton was born Oct. 23, 1942, in Chicago and grew up in Roslyn, N.Y.

He developed wide interests at an early age, he later said, recalling his mother taking her children to plays, museums, movies and concerts several times a week.

Although he described his journalist father in his book “Travels” as “a first-rate son of a bitch,” he praised both parents for not setting limits on their children’s exploration.

“They were always saying, ‘You can do that.’ So I never had the feeling there was some area that I was incompetent in,” he told Vanity Fair in 1994.

Crichton enjoyed writing and, he later said, he wrote extensively from an early age.

His most recent novel, “Next,” which dealt with genetics and the law, was published in 2006.

— By arrangement with LA Times-Washington Post

Delhi Durbar
Lawyers as politicians

Many lawyers keenness for politics is well known. Even when engaged in successful practice, they not only nurture political ambition, but also meticulously work towards their goal.

This came out clearly in a recent incident. The standing counsel for a north-western state promptly apprised journalists of the day's proceedings in the Supreme Court in various cases relating to the state.

However, he preferred to remain silent on the all-important case that involved a river water dispute. On being asked about it, he said he, in fact, hailed from a neighbouring state and did not want to spoil his political chances by arguing against his own state. Therefore he had excused himself from appearing for the case. No wonder that almost every third politician in the country is from the legal fraternity.

Is MEA short of staff?

The junior and middle level staff at the External Affairs Ministry are a harassed lot, what with so many foreign dignitaries visiting India or Indian VVIPs undertaking foreign tours.

“We are unable to take even one-day leave…even if one person fails to turn up in office, everything goes haywire,’’ complained an overburdened official, adding that there was not sufficient staff for routine work, not to speak of the amount of work involved in connection with a series of VVIP visits.

The Belgian King is on a long visit to India, President Pratibha Patil has left for Bhutan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is to visit Oman and Qatar, BIMSTEC summit will take place in New Delhi from November 11-13, and a VVIP from India will shortly visit the Maldives for the swearing in of the new president there. Every visit involves a lot of planning and paper work. Senior officers pass instructions but where is the staff to implement these orders?

Hopefully, their woes will be over soon with speculation already on that the Lok Sabha polls may be advanced to February. The overseas visits of Indian leaders will obviously come down. Mind you! It’s not an austerity measure.

Bill Gates cheers Google

Microsoft founder-mentor Bill Gates may have slipped two positions in the world’s richest people list, but he has no plans as yet of returning to Microsoft full-time.

The man, who made software lucrative and smart with Microsoft and himself ended up as the world’s richest man, says he is happy being a “part-timer” at the institution he literally sired.

And yes, the software giant is in no hurry to prove anything to Google, which is giving Microsoft tough competition.

During his India visit, Bill Gates had this to say on Google: “Good competition with Google is good for users. As far as I go, I will work part time with Microsoft because we have brilliant people handling it.” Bill Gates has committed himself full-time to global health issues through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Contributed by R Sedhuraman, Ashok Tuteja and Aditi Tandon