|
|
Cops who kill Layoffs no cure |
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Kabootarbaazi again
Growing uncertainty
Journeys
Road to White House Electoral College
elects US president Inside
Pakistan
|
|
Layoffs no cure During
his meeting with the captains of industry on Monday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh assured the country’s corporate sector very clearly that the government would do all it can to enable it to successfully weather the global financial storm that threatens to upset its calculations. He told them not to worry much in this regard as their problems of financial liquidity, the rising cost of production, the declining demand, etc, will be properly taken care of by his government. There are, no doubt, factors beyond any individual country’s control. There is an atmosphere of economic uncertainty at the global level and the investment sentiment remains dampened. Yet the government has to make industry as much comfortable as possible so that India succeeds in achieving its revised target of 8 per cent GDP growth, which is otherwise lower than the record — 9 per cent — during the past three years. If the government has its obligations to fulfil, the corporate sector, too, has certain responsibilities besides making profit to remain afloat. Under pressure from the international financial crisis, industry seems to have forgotten that it has a social responsibility, too. That is why the Prime Minister has asked it to avoid any “knee-jerk reaction such as large-scale layoffs”, which is bound to send out a dismal signal. No one can object to the corporate houses resorting to cost-cutting measures and raising productivity. But rendering their employees jobless may not be the best way to tackle the situation. Large-scale joblessness will erode the consumers’ purchasing power considerably, leading to a drastic fall in the demand for various industrial products. This will create a vicious circle, which can be neither in the interest of the producers nor the consumers. If at all the corporate sector wants to reduce its salary bill to tide over the crisis, it can go in for reducing the pay and perks of those at the top of a company’s staff --- like the chairman, directors and managing directors. They constitute a small segment of the staff, but often it is they who take a major share of the cake. Such a suggestion was made by Dr Manmohan Singh some time ago, but it was ignored conveniently. The corporate sector should give a second thought to what the Prime Minister had said — for its own health as well as in the interest of the general public.
|
|
|
Kabootarbaazi again The
Punjabi’s lure for foreign lands often betrays signs of desperation, bordering on mania. Many skirt the law to go abroad by joining a sports team or a musical group, and then opt out to vanish making borders irrelevant. Kabootarbaazi, an euphemism for human trafficking in Punjab, has become even more ingenious. Six students from Punjab, three from a college and three from two schools of Kapurthala district, recently went on an education tour to Germany but disappeared. Educational excursions now seem to have become the latest modus operandi of overzealous Punjabis to go to foreign lands for whatever the reasons. Earlier, two students from Jalandhar and four along with a woman teacher from Hoshiarpur district were reported missing on trips to NASA, clearly without intention to embark on a journey into space. Undeterred by tragedies like the Malta boat mishap, the great Punjabi fascination for alien shores, in search of greener pastures, shows no signs of diminishing. Rather, human smuggling from Punjab remains a thriving multi-crore business. It is estimated that annually about 10 to 20 thousand Punjabi youth fall prey to the dollar craze. While fleeing poverty and unemployment, they find themselves in a deeper quandary. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports that thousands of illegal immigrants from India -- Punjab in particular-- are languishing in jails, refugee homes and camps in Europe alone. The sting operation on illegal immigrants in Britain has exposed a human trafficking network involved in bringing illegal migrants into Britain, earning unseemly reputation for Punjab. Yet, not enough is being done by the central and state governments to check racketeering by unscrupulous travel and immigration agents who defraud the gullible youth and launch them on dubious ventures. The most recent case involving school and college children reveals that the rot runs deeper. The educational institutes in question must be held accountable, as also the parents, whose connivance appears apparent. Stringent action has to be taken against those abetting illegal immigration. If, nothing is done to stem the illegal outflow, the genuine aspirants will have to face a tough time and stricter immigration laws abroad.
|
|
|
An intellectual hatred is the worst. So let her think opinions are accursed.
— W. B. Yeats
|
Growing uncertainty These
are extraordinary times, so strange and unexpected things occurring should not surprise us. The only thing predictable is that one cannot predict correctly (that also applies to the Indian cricket team!). The US government, after promising under different heads a few trillion dollars, seems to be fighting a losing battle with the economy steadily declining. The Indian government, after so much song and dance in the last few years about the need for strict adherence to FRBM, has thrown it out of the window by announcing huge expenditures. Much was also made of the RBI’s autonomy but that is also a thing of the past with the government requiring it to act quickly and, of all things, it has released almost Rs 2,70,000 crore of liquidity in a month — an unthinkable amount till recently. The latest data from the US economy points to a worsening economic situation. For the first time in several decades, consumer expenditures have dropped and that too sharply. Worse, this data is for the quarter immediately preceding the big pain induced by the collapse in the financial sector in mid September. So, analysts have argued that the last quarter of 2008 is likely to be much worse. There are straws in the wind, suggesting that the recent rise in the stock markets is a blip. Reports suggest that the largest insurance firm AIG, which has been given a total bailout package of $123 billion, has more or less exhausted this amount in a month. The bailout of $ 85 billion announced in September looked huge but another $38 billion had to be given and even that has disappeared into a bottomless pit. How much more would be needed by the AIG? That depends on the liabilities on its books and how much have its assets degraded in the present situation of rapid economic decline. All this indicates the difficulties that every business, and not just financial institutions, may be currently facing. All of them may be headed for difficulties because the assets on their books have lost value with the decline of the markets while their huge liabilities may be intact. The balance sheet may have huge holes. The largest Japanese bank, Mitsubishi Financial Group that took equity in Morgan Stanley to bail it out, is now in trouble. It is trying to raise an equity of $10.7 billion. The shares held by Mitsubishi have fallen in value by 40 per cent. This has shaken confidence not only in Japan but also in the rest of the world. So entities that may look healthy at one point of time and may be asked to bail- out the not-so-healthy ones may themselves be in trouble very quickly not only because they took on another collapsing entity but because their own portfolio has degraded — not in years but in days and months. The clear lesson is that given the disastrous financial situation worldwide, one does not know which entity is headed for trouble in the coming days and months. Under the circumstances, every entity is protecting itself. One way to do so is to become conservative and not trust others, not invest, etc. This becomes an added source of trouble. The situation has gone out of the control of governments as far as the financial markets are concerned. The losses in the books have become so large that even the governments do not have the resources to save these entities. The monetary authorities have lost their power to regulate since their instruments are now blunted by the loss of trust and abnormal events in the economy. They may lower interest rates, but investments in the current situation of growing uncertainty will not rise. They may release money but it will simply sit with economic agents since they do not want to take on fresh commitments and want to stay liquid rather than commit funds. In brief, demand has collapsed. The real economy is being severely dented since most businesses have also indulged in buying the financial instruments that are now in trouble. After all, they like to make as high a profit as possible and the financial markets were promising that and luring all and sundry — everyone was trapped by greed. An Indian conglomerate bought a Europe firm at what was then thought to be a high price. Today the price of that asset would have collapsed in the market but the debts taken to buy the company would stand. The financial situation of the firm must be poor. The same company also bought two more firms later for the sake of prestige and again they would have taken a hit. How this firm would fare in the coming months is a moot question. Assocham put out a report that soon some major industries will retrench in a big way. Not so surprisingly, within a week, they have withdrawn the report under pressure for the government which is still claiming that the economy would grow at 7 per cent. Is this feasible, given that the industrial growth has fallen to 1.5 per cent for the latest month and major parts of the tertiary sector, like the financial sector, hotels, tourism, trade, travel and housing, are seeing sharp declines? The Finance Minister has claimed that more jobs would be generated this year than during the entire NDA regime — a poor game of political one upmanship. The problem is likely to aggravate as time passes because the world economy is headed into a prolonged recession or even a depression. Major Indian industries are likely to slow down or show negative growth. Can industry carry surplus labour in times when its bottomline is being hit due to lack of orders and build-up of inventories? Its losses can only mount even faster and it would sink sooner than later unless a national strategy is worked out as to how India will cope with the coming difficult time. There is no point in living in denial and not preparing. Malaysia delinked itself from international capital flows in 1997 to save itself from the ongoing economic collapse in South-East Asia. The US and the IMF lectured it then for wrong policies but later held it up as a model for others. We also need to protect our interest and not open ourselves indiscriminately. The FIIs brought in funds but now they are withdrawing and leading to the collapse of the stock market. The government is opening up the insurance sector to greater FDI. In these times when the insurance sector is also in deep trouble (AIG being the biggest one) where will these funds come from? If they do come, would they also not try to quickly exploit the situation to shore up their parent companies, etc? We need to invest in our real economy, keep employment up, encourage investment and keep our savings moving within the economy and not let them leak out through opening up the sector. Are we learning anything from anyone? If not, that is not unusual but a part of the
predictability.
|
|||||
Journeys The
date was September 7. I was returning to Chandigarh from Delhi on the Shatabdi train after visiting my children in Chicago for two months. I looked out of the window and saw the green fields of rice, trees and villages washed clean with the rain. It was such a calming sight . I call it the middle part of the journey. As soon as one leaves New Delhi station, we come across the ugliest sight of slums and filth. I wish Sheila Dikshit and the PM and Soniaji took the train and saw for themselves the first impression one gets of World Class Capital City New Delhi. Also, they should try to catch the train at 7.40 am without sirens and outriders, where instead of three minutes it takes sometimes 13, 23 or even longer to make a right turn into the New Delhi station. Where have all the traffic police gone? It’s enough to give a “phoren” returned traveller, with a lot of baggage, palpitation almost leading to heart attack. In spite of the chaos, we have never missed our train even once. But I refuse to take the evening Shatabdi at 5.15 pm. One can multiply the traffic and palpitation 10 fold. The middle part is really beautiful. I see miles and miles of green fields or suddenly we come across plots of marigold flowers or huge sunflowers when they are in season. And I don’t see too many people. Thank God that in spite of being more than one billion we still have open spaces in our country. Then I love my India and am always happy to return home. While in the US my daughter had planned a visit to Alaska for one week. We were to fly to Seattle and then take the ship from there. I was a little apprehensive as the whole family minus my husband Tinnu and my father-in-law were going on this cruise. We take turns in “baby sitting” Dadaji as we call him at 93; he is the oldest in the family. She had booked Adesh, her husband, his mother Lalitha, Tania, my younger daughter, myself and Aryaman and Shayan, my grandsons on the fight to Seattle. The nagging thought, what if the plane crashes. After 40 years of travelling around the world, I am still apprehensive, especially if the whole family is travelling together. It’s not so much about us dying. We would probably not know what hit us, but how will Dadaji and Tinnu cope with the loss? So I prayed really hard to save them the heartbreak and make our journey safe. Later on the ship, Tinnu’s younger brother, his wife and their only son were going to join for the cruise. Somebody mentioned Titanic. Adesh said I don’t want anyone to utter that word. But sorry Adesh, we did more than once since we felt pretty comfortable, relaxed and safe. But the fact is that even today big ships do go down. A few years back we were living in Sweden a big ship went down in eight minutes with 800 people on board. I think there were about eight survivors! On our way to Alaska we came across a lot of floating icebergs, but since it was summer they were quite small. The Captain and the crew were very smart. No rushing! They manoeuvered the ship as close as they could do the glacier for us to take photographs. Adesh caught a part of the glacier break away and fall into the water, on his video camera. There were a big cloud of ice and snow. It was a real avalanche. Our first stop in Alaska was Juneu. Does it ring a bell? Had never heard the name before? Guess who is from Juneu? Sarah Pallin, The republican V.P. candidate. They say she was the Mayor of a small town, before she became the Governor of Alaska whose capital is Juneu. To me Juneu was a really small town also — one main street town. We even saw the governor’s reasonable sized house from our bus. But then the White House is also a comparatively small house, compared to the grandeur of Rashtrapati Bhawan and other places around the
world.
|
|||||
Road to White House How
long has the presidential campaign been going? When it started in the spring of 2006, America’s voters worried most about the war in Iraq, consumer confidence had reached a four-year high and the Dow Jones industrial average bumped along comfortably above 11,000. A former small-town mayor named Sarah Palin faced four others in a debate for governor of Alaska. The forum: Comfish, a fishing industry trade show in Kodiak, Alaska. And Joe Biden made the first of three announcements. “At this moment,” Biden said during a March tour of South Carolina, “I plan on running.” That watershed would be followed, nine months later, by another announcement. Three weeks later, he was in. It’s been a campaign of halting starts and dazzling flame-outs, of historic firsts and dispiriting sameness. Issues, such as immigration, dominated and disappeared. Candidates strode in, poised to seize the spotlight, and slunk quietly from the stage. Now the longest and costliest presidential campaign in American history, which delivered so little certainty and so much passion, promises a definitive end. “I tuned out at the campaign’s halfway mark, which was 23 months ago,” author Tom Wolfe quipped. “How is Ron Paul doing?” But for all those exhausted by the race, many more remained transfixed. “Yes, there may have been more than the usual nonsense. But this is the way it’s done in this country,” said Richard Ben Cramer, who wrote an acclaimed history of the 1988 presidential campaign. “I don’t think it’s bad. It’s just part of the show. And people are really, really paying attention.” The campaign began so long ago, it’s hard now to even recall the starting line. Iowans would tell you that, after the 2004 election, John Edwards never really left their state. Yet most of the men and the one woman who eventually would seek the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations feinted and dodged about their intentions into 2006. Biden made it official January 31, 2007. He would have been off and running, except he had to spend the day explaining what he meant when he said Barack Obama was “a mainstream African American who is articulate and bright and clean.” The senator from Delaware survived his gaffe, but others were done in by theirs. When the fields came into focus in early 2007, the Democrats had mustered seven candidates. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, the Ohio congressman who pushed for the impeachment of President Bush and Vice President Cheney, was among them. The Republicans assembled 11, including Rep. Tom Tancredo, who argued that most of the nation’s ills could be solved if illegal immigrants were kept on the other side of the border. The Democrats debated or appeared together at forums 26 times before the spring of 2008. The Republicans held 21 showdowns. The Republican contest continued to confound pundits. Conventional wisdom wrote off John McCain, who nearly ran out of money. The leader in national polls, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, effectively sat out the first half-dozen contests. Paul, the Texas congressman, raised enough money to rent a blimp. But his fiercely devoted followers couldn’t quite sell his message-abolishing gun control laws, legalizing marijuana and dismantling the Federal Reserve. Much of the media and the public had waited years expecting to see Clinton ascend to the nomination. But she and the other Democrats had underestimated the Obama phenomenon. His fundraising and poll numbers never wavered. Not with attacks on his unconventional proposals, including an unusual willingness to talk to foreign dictators. Not by dwelling on his past associations, including with his pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Obama and Clinton pummeled each other. Was Obama ready to answer that 3 a.m. phone call in the White House? Did Clinton brave sniper fire on a trip to Kosovo? (The answer to the first remained in debate. But the answer to the second became a definitive “no.”) Who would have predicted the young black lawmaker would burst into the lead by winning in Iowa, a state with a black population of less than 3 percent? Or that he could hold on for victory, losing California, New York and New Jersey to Clinton, because he dominated in Idaho, Utah and Nebraska? The Republicans matched the Democrats’ pas de deux with a Virginia reel so complex that it actually boosted McCain’s chances when he finished fourth behind Huckabee in the Iowa caucuses, which hurt Romney and helped McCain push to first in New Hampshire. It also kept enough challengers in the race that they split the vote in South Carolina and handed what turned out to be the decisive win to McCain. Accepting the Democratic prize before a huge football stadium crowd in Denver late in August, Obama set to yolking McCain to “eight years of failed Republican policies.” And, while preaching hope, the Democrat was cold-eyed enough to reject calls to cap his spending. But McCain seized control of the story line the day after the Democratic convention. He announced the obscure Palin as his running mate and electrified his party’s most conservative stalwarts, but many voters came to worry she was out of her depth. When the financial crisis struck, McCain rushed to Washington to find a fix and demanded the first debate be postponed. He left without a deal and the debate went on. In the weeks since, the campaign settled into an almost lulling rhythm. McCain attacked. Obama parried. And the polls steadied, with Obama ahead in most of the crucial places. Americans can’t wait to write the ending. But they might miss the story when it’s over. — By arrangement with
LA Times-Washington Post
|
|
Electoral College elects US president It
is the Electoral College, not the popular vote, that elects the next president of the United States. Here are some facts about the Electoral College:
This unique system was the result of a compromise by the writers of the U.S. Constitution in the 18th century between those who wanted direct popular election and those who wanted state legislatures to decide. One fear was that, at a time before U.S. political parties, the popular vote would be diluted by voting for an unwieldy amount of candidates. — Reuters
|
|
Inside Pakistan A full year has elapsed since the then President of Pakistan, Gen Pervez Musharraf, imposed on November 3, 2007, a state of emergency when he realised that he was losing the battle to perpetuate his rule. The crusade against his unconstitutional rule was being led by the judiciary under Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry. The events that followed led to the ouster of General Musharraf from the seat of power, but the ultimate purpose of the drive against his rule has not been achieved. The new President, Mr Asif Ali Zardari, still holds the powers enjoyed by Mr Musharraf. Under the constitution the President has the authority to dissolve the National and Provincial Assemblies. Of course, Mr Zardari is a duly elected head of state, but more powerful than the National Assembly of Pakistan. This should not be there if Pakistan wants to have a democratic set-up in the real sense of the term. Most newspapers have reminded Mr Zardari of the pledges he had made to the people of Pakistan in the course of the fight against Musharraf rule. But he is the least bothered about those pledges. He has been quoted as saying that “there is no judicial crisis in Pakistan”! As The News commented, “The principle of an independent judiciary, which formed the focal point of the movement launched on November 3, continues to be ignored. The PPP government has disappointed many, initially taken in by its promises to restore (the sacked) judges and by the Prime Minister’s orders to release them from house arrest….”
In an interesting article in Dawn, Dr Tariq Hassan, a lawyer and former Chairman, Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, has exposed the present higher judiciary for its actions, which go against the cause of judicial independence. The new apex court, composed of mostly pro-Musharraf judges, has justified the November 3 Emergency proclamation, the so-called Provisional Constitutional Order and the oath of office they took under it. The court held that “some members of the superior judiciary (under Justice Chaudhry) by way of judicial activism transgressed the constitutional limits and ignored the well-entrenched principle of judicial restraint.” Dr Hassan rightly says, “It seems the court has unwittingly endorsed the government’s war against the judiciary. In doing so, it has not only compromised the independence of the judiciary but has also negated the supremacy of the constitution and the rule of law --- the very objects that it is mandated to protect.” As Ayesha Tammy Haq says in her article in The News, “Today the issue of the restoration of the Chief Justice of Pakistan is not a legal one but a political one. The battle to restore the Chief Justice will not be fought and won in the Supreme Court as it was last year from March 9 to July 20, but in political forums and on the streets. Part of that battle was fought before the elections, and when the verdict came in the General suffered a resounding defeat. The fight is still on, not over...”
Politicians are known for exploiting the people's sentiments to the extent possible. But they deserve strongest condemnation if they indulge in this tactic ignoring the consequences of their irresponsible behaviour. The Daily Times has taken PML(Q) chief Chaudhary Shujaat Husain to task for saying that the Chenab water controversy between India and Pakistan can lead to another war between the two neighbours. The paper also quoted him as saying, "the mujahideen in Kashmir are, in fact, fighting for Pakistan" and that Kashmir was "a lifeline for Pakistan because all rivers flowing into Pakistan originated in Kashmir". This is certainly not the manner in which senior politicians should react. The daily rightly said, "There is not going to be another war between India and Pakistan, no matter what the cause. The two nuclear powers are forbidden to even talk about the possibility... "Pakistan and India have problems with each other which can be resolved if they cooperate. The road of cooperation in trade and contacts under a better visa regime is open, and the Gilani government has adopted the right position on it and needs to move quickly without quibbling over a precise measurement of the Indian quid pro quo. “The waters issue can be sorted out while more accelerated progress is made on the other issues that the two countries have resolved to at least defuse if not resolve." There is nothing alarming so far as the controversy that has arisen after the construction of Baglihar Dam by India over the Chenab.
|
|
|
|
| HOME PAGE | |
Punjab | Haryana | Jammu & Kashmir |
Himachal Pradesh | Regional Briefs |
Nation | Opinions | | Business | Sports | World | Letters | Chandigarh | Ludhiana | Delhi | | Calendar | Weather | Archive | Subscribe | Suggestion | E-mail | |
