The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Rain likely in region
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 14
Rainfall: Rain/thundershowers have occurred at a few places in Punjab and Uttarakhand and at isolated places in Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and West Rajasthan. Weather was mainly dry in the rest of the region.

Temperature: The maximum temperatures fell appreciably in Punjab, fell in Haryana and Himachal Pradesh and changed little elsewhere. They were appreciably below normal in Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, below normal in Haryana, West Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand and normal in the rest of the region. The highest maximum temperature in the region was 41.8°C recorded at Sawaimadhopur (Rajasthan).

Forecast valid until the morning of May 16: Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places in Haryana, Punjab and North Rajasthan and at isolated places in the rest of the region. Isolated thunder squalls are likely in Haryana, Punjab, North Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.

Outlook for the subsequent two days: Weather will be mainly dry over the region. Day temperatures are likely to increase.

Forecast for Delhi and neighbourhood valid until the morning of May 16: Partly cloudy sky with possibility of rain/thundershowers accompanied with squall in some areas. The maximum temperature will be around 35°C.

Farmers weather bulletin for Delhi (forecast valid until the morning of May 16): Rainfall is likely at a few places. Squall with wind speed exceeding 65 kmph are likely at isolated places.

Outlook for the subsequent two days: Mainly dry weather.

Monsoon to break over Kerala on May 29
Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 14
Monsoon will hit the Indian mainland three days in advance and break over Kerala on May 29, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) today predicted.

The mean monsoon onset date over Kerala is June 1. The statistical forecast model has a model error of ± 4 days. The IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for monsoon onset over Kerala using statistical techniques since 2005. In 2007, the IMD predicted May 24 as the date of monsoon onset over Kerala, but it actually took place four days later.

For predicting this year’s monsoon onset, the IMD used an indigenously developed statistical model based on six predictors. They include minimum temperature over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) over South China Sea, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean and OLR over southwest Pacific region.

With favourable conditions in tow, the most-awaited annual weather phenomenon in the country had set in over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands and south Andaman Sea on May 10, five days ahead of its average onset day.

As on May 13, the northern limit of monsoon is passing through Lat 5.0ºN Long 86.0ºE, Lat 8.0ºN Long 87.0ºE, Lat 10.0ºN Long 89.0ºE, Lat 12.0ºN Long 91.0ºE, Maya Bandar, Lat 14.0ºN Long 95.0ºE and Lat 15.0ºN Long 98.0ºE.

While there is no one-to-one relationship between the date of onset of monsoon over Kerala and its further advancement in different parts of the country, IMD director S.C. Bhan says the long range forecast and current observations indicate that monsoon is likely to keep its date with rest of India as well. The mean onset date of monsoon over Delhi, Punjab and Haryana is June 30.

IMD’s long-range forecast for this year’s southwest monsoon season between June and September, the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be near normal. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 99 per cent of the long period average with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The long period average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm.