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Expanding Security Council
Father’s day
Nuclear threat or bluff? It’s dangerous to transfer control of headworks From
Pakistan Knotty caste problem
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Visit of discord SOON after the visit of Hurriyat leaders to Pakistan, we had commented in these columns that the development was highly irregular and undesirable. Even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has now observed that Pakistan has violated the understanding with India on the plying of bus by allowing Kashmiri separatist leaders to travel beyond Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Coming from him, those are tough and bitter words, which he was apparently keeping to himself but felt constrained to express when the BJP picked holes in the UPA government’s handling of the Hurriyat visit. The Kashmir negotiations may not be as much in a mess as Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee has suggested but the much-publicised visit of the Hurriyat leaders and the way Pakistan has exploited it is bound to retard the peace process. That many Hurriyat leaders take their orders from Islamabad is no secret. It was but natural for them to speak from the Pakistani script while they were visiting that country. Significantly, they did not go the whole hog while doing so. On the contrary, a few of them even did some plain-talking which may not have gone down too well with the Pakistani bosses. But still, it cannot be denied that the unelected leaders got more importance and exposure than they deserved. Now that the deed has been done, the Prime Minister will have to predicate his future steps accordingly and tell Pakistan that scoring brownie points is not cricket. In all this, President Pervez Musharraf’s men have been too clever by half. Just as he soured things inexorably during the Agra summit by his “media management”, the reverse spin given to the Hurriyat visit can be a roadblock on the way to peace. Confidence-building measures cannot be taken in the backdrop of activities amounting to a breach of trust. By trying to make the visit appear as if India had accepted that Kashmir was a tripartite dispute, General Musharraf has only complicated matters. He will have to climb the totem-pole of dependability once again, extrovert displays of camaraderie notwithstanding. |
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Food worries THAT the Prime Minister and his agriculture and finance ministers should review the food stocks situation indicates a sense of unease pervading the government. The recent diesel price hike and reports of a deficient monsoon only add to worries on the food front. Surprisingly, there is even talk of importing wheat, which is quite a climbdown from the days of surpluses and foodgrain exports, even if uneconomical . That the wheat and paddy stocks are dwindling has been clear for quite some time, though officials would not admit to any shortage. The wheat stocks are estimated to fall substantially by April 1 next year, according to the official projections released to the media on Tuesday. With monsoon forecast becoming an unreliable occupation in India, which is a pity for a country so heavily dependent on rain, the exact fallout of a delayed or deficient monsoon will be known only after it is over. The government, no doubt, needs to keep a contingency plan in place and Tuesday’s meeting was called to meet that end. It will have to arrange sufficient foodgrains for the public distribution system, the food-for-work programme and the Sampoorna Rozgar Yojna. Even during the time when state godowns overflowed with foodgrains, the government had to face the ignominy of having starvation deaths. It will have to ensure that such tragic happenings no longer spoil the country’s growth story. The likely fall in the food stocks will warrant a review of crop diversification, now seen widely as a solution to Punjab’s agricultural crisis. The country’s food security plans stand exposed. The sharp hike in the diesel price is bound to push production costs of paddy and wheat and lead farmers to make a valid case for a raise in the minimum support prices of both wheat and paddy. If the support prices are raised, the poor will be hit; if not, the farmers. In both cases the government’s food subsidy bill will rise. That does not augur well for the goal to achieve 7 per cent GDP growth. |
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Threats from Taliban THE Taliban remains a major destabilising factor in Afghanistan despite the collapse of the militia’s regime in Afghanistan nearly four years ago following the US-led war against terrorism. On June 19 a fierce fighting between Afghanistan’s security forces and Taliban insurgents claimed 20 lives, 18 of them being insurgents. Only recently the Taliban took hostage 13 officials of the Hamid Karzai government, including a district police chief, whom they executed later on. There are areas, particularly in southern Afghanistan, where the militia continues to have substantial following, posing a serious threat to the cause of stability in that war-ravaged country. What has, however, led to the fear of the intensification of the Taliban’s activities are reports that some Al-Qaeda operatives have sneaked into the mountainous country to create an Iraq-like situation there. Already, the death toll, which includes 29 US lives, has risen considerably since March this year. Taliban insurgents now identify soft targets to make their presence felt and this indicates a change in their tactics. It seems the extremist forces are working overtime to sabotage the September legislative elections. Taliban activists are exploiting the widespread resentment among the Afghans because of the poor pace of rebuilding activity. President Karzai has accused Pakistan of playing a negative role in Afghanistan. He never misses an opportunity to point out that the discredited militia has been attempting to regroup with the help of Pakistan. Pakistan is reported to have threatened the remnants of the Taliban that their relatives would be handed over to the US forces if they failed to fight against the Karzai government. This means that Pakistan, ostensibly an “ally in the war against global terrorism”, is not reconciled to the loss of its influence in Afghanistan. It is surprising why the Americans are looking the other way. |
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Never forget that only dead fish swim with the stream.
— Malcolm Muggeridge |
Expanding Security Council THE US announcement of possible criteria for new permanent members and the simultaneous indication that it might support Japan and a developing country for permanent membership constitutes a master-stroke to get the initiative on expansion back to the Security Council. It saves India-US bilateral relations at a delicate stage and divides the G-4 and its supporters, without any chance of the proposed limited expansion being found acceptable by the general membership. The pressure on the P-5 (the original permanent members) to find an acceptable formula for an expansion is expected to be eased as a result. There is an element of de javu here. Back in the early nineties, Rick Inderfurth, my US colleague in the working group on an expansion of the Security Council expressed “enthusiastic support” for Germany and Japan to become permanent members of the Council. Ambassador Fulci, the permanent representative of Italy, who was waging a relentless struggle to prevent any expansion without including Italy, walked up to Inderfurth and protested not against the expression of support but for the enthusiasm contained in it. The nonaligned countries were equally critical of American support for a “quick fix”, which appeared to have the backing of the five permanent members. By taking a position that if a comprehensive expansion, including the addition of developing countries, was not possible, it should be confined to non-permanent members, the “quick fix” formula was thwarted by the vast majority of member-states. The US support now for Japan and “a developing world country” may have delighted India, but it will bring back memories of the “quick fix”, with the danger of opposition by a large number of countries to such a limited expansion proposal. Having maintained so far that the expansion is a prerogative of the General Assembly and made common cause with the G-4, which will, hopefully, become G-6 after July, India cannot jump to the US formula, however attractive the criteria outlined are. In fact, except for the commitment to human rights and non-proliferation, the criteria are the same that India had submitted to the Secretary-General in 1993. It is a moot point, however, whether a non-signatory to the NPT will be considered committed to non-proliferation. An additional complication this time is that China, another permanent member, is opposed to Japan. The suggestion that since India appears to be on all lists, agreement could be reached on an expansion limited to India is wishful thinking, to say the least. The apparent disarray among the P-5 looks like part of a deliberate strategy to avoid any expansion at this stage of the UN reform. There are other elements of UN reforms which the permanent members consider important in the context of numerous allegations against the UN. The UK, Russia and France, which are supposed to be supportive of the G-4 proposal, have, as expected, shied away from co-sponsorship of the resolution. As US analysts have maintained, the permanent members believe that the expansion has to be on the basis of an understanding among themselves. It is how they have operated in the past and the consultations launched by the Secretary-General were to lead to such an understanding. That explains the Chinese rage when it found that the G-4 had tried to hijack the initiative. The glad tidings that a communist comrade has brought back from China that Beijing is still supportive of India must be discounted. The harking back to the Joint Declaration is evidence enough to show that there is no real commitment on part of China to India’s attempt for permanent membership. The confusing signals from China and the US are designed to ensure that the expansion issue should not plague improving bilateral relations with India. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may well stick to the G-4 position in the Oval Office, though he cannot but help expressing gratitude for the US criteria, which appear to favour India. The visit has become a success even before it has begun. India will be like Japan and Germany in the nineties, which basked in the glory of American support for some time. The US cannot be held responsible for the rejection of its formula by the General Assembly. Nothing is more repugnant to the permanent members than a situation where the General Assembly adopts a resolution on UN reforms and they are forced to ratify it under pressure. This is not the first time that India has tried to use the expected majority in the General Assembly to force an expansion of the Security Council. Unlike now, the general membership was fully supportive of the resolution, which we submitted in 1979 for an expansion of the non-permanent membership. But the permanent members ensured that the resolution was never put to a vote. If the strategy adopted at that time was to show P-5 solidarity, this time it is differences within the P-5 that are being highlighted to realise the same objective. As a “supporter’ of India, President Bush can easily persuade Prime Minister Manmohan Singh not to press the G-4 resolution to a vote. The initiative will then return to the Security Council. A member of the Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel recently noted that the US was the only major country which did not make any submission at any level to the panel. “Left to itself, the US would prefer to have a one-country Security Council”, he said. The US is determined that the council should not become unwieldy. The maximum number that the US ever contemplated was 21. Having successfully eliminated the veto proposal for the new members, the US has to work towards limiting the number to the barest minimum. At the same time, the US is aware that there is no chance of a limited expansion being accepted by the general membership. The latest move by the US, in the face of differences within the P-5, is a double insurance policy for the White House, at the bilateral and multilateral
level.
**** The writer is a former Ambassador of India. |
Father’s day IT was during my tenure in mercantile marine that we decided to settle down in Chandigarh. It was but natural that we called on our relatives residing in Chandigarh whenever I was on leave as both of us were sailing. Since for us period of stay was always short for this purpose we decided to meet families irrespective of time of the day. The first residence in our list was a spacious government bungalow in a prestigious sector occupied by a senior officer of the Chandigarh administration. It was about 11 a.m. on a Tuesday. We were ushered in by a servant who made us comfortable in the lobby. Soon the lady of the house emerged from the kitchen and greeted us warmly. We felt enormously at ease to be in company of the family of such a senior officer of the Chandigarh administration. Tea over, my wife expressed a desire to see the spacious, tastefully decorated kothi. While my wife went along with the hostess to see the interior I decided to have a look at the rear garden. Between the garden section and the main house were two adjoining rooms appearing to be with toilet facilities After about 10 minutes as I turned towards the main house where my wife and hostess were waiting for me I heard a mute groaning from one of the rooms. I opened the jali door and entered. There was an old man more than 80 years of age lying on a single bed breathing uncomfortably. An aluminium plate and a steel glass of water were lying on a small side table. The room had a fan but nothing else. I looked round, called loudly but found no one nearby. The old man slowly opened his eyes and looked at me with some surprise but said nothing. Perhaps he had no strength to speak coherently. I quietly came out of the room and headed towards a mali pruning roses some distance from the room. I asked him who the person lying in the outer room was. His reply stunned me: “Ye barre sahib ke pitaji hain aur isi kamre me rahte hain”. About a year after this experience we came to know about the death of the father of the VIP. A grand religious ceremony was held in the main kothi attended by us and hundreds of others. Dozens of large cars were seen parked on the side road. Eloquent tributes and prayers for the departed soul followed announcement of liberal donations for charity. I have many more instances where similar scenes are repeated. Despite all the nice things done in memory of the departed ones, does an old and helpless person get good care in well-to-do households while he lives? |
Nuclear threat or bluff? THE old time-worn story of Bruce Riedel, who was on President Clinton’s National Security Council staff during the Kargil crisis and was present during the Clinton-Nawaz Sharif negotiations on July 4, 1999, has captured Indian media headlines once again. The story has been quoted in the new book of well-known Pakistan columnist Hussein Haqqani “Pakistan between Mosque and Military”. The Riedel story, in the version in which it was released first in the paper of the Centre for the Advanced Study of India, Policy Paper, University of Pennsylvania (2002) and quoted subsequently in other publications leaves one with the feeling that it is not the full story and has given only a doctored version to achieve a particular purpose. According to the story, President Clinton asked Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif during his July 4th meeting if he knew his military was preparing nuclear-tipped missiles. The President further enquired whether Mr Sharif realised that if even one bomb was dropped — and Mr Sharif finished the sentence — “it would be a catastrophe”. Mr Riedel’s story continued,” Mr Clinton asked, Did Mr Sharif order the Pakistani nuclear missile force to prepare for action? Did he realise how crazy that was? You have put me in the middle today, set the US to fail and I would not let it happen. Pakistan is messing with nuclear war.” That Nawaz Sharif agreed to withdraw his troops at the end of the meeting is not quite relevant to Mr Bruce Riedel’s nuclear horror story. What is relevant and what Mr Riedel does not tell us anything about is what did the US President do when he got the information that the Pakistani military was preparing the nuclear-tipped missile? He knew very well that the Pakistani nuclear weapons were not under the control of the Prime Minister but of the army chief. Therefore, the logical step would have been for the US President to get in touch with the Pakistani army chief and warn him of the consequences that would follow if even one bomb was dropped. Pakistani Army Chief Musharraf was a friend of General Antony Zinni, the then Commander of the Central Command. Did the US President direct General Zinni to talk to General Musharraf? Secondly, surely if a nuclear weapon was getting ready to be used within the jurisdiction of the Central Command, then that command should have gone on alert and should be ready to take appropriate action. Mr Riedel does not tell us anything about such steps. His version would leave one with the impression that President Clinton and the US military command did not take the threat seriously. Or perhaps, Mr Riedel thought that the rest of the world had no business to bother about how the US reacted when a country prepared to use a nuclear weapon on its neighbouring country. If the US did not take the threat seriously enough to react to it and the reaction was not meaningful enough to be recorded, then how did Mr Riedel expect the rest of the world to take his version of the Pakistani threat seriously? Mr Riedel’s version has been quoted by other Americans to highlight how dangerous the Indo-Pak nuclear confrontation can be. But none of the American strategists have ever asked how did the US react to this threat. If the US did not display any reaction beyond subjecting poor Nawaz Sharif to an interrogation on the nuclear danger for which he had no responsibility, what message could it have sent to other rogue states? Logically, North Korea could have inferred from Mr Bruce Riedel’s article that if PyongYang were to prepare its nuclear weapon for use against South Korea, the President of the United States would be raising rhetorical questions on nuclear danger and be doing nothing. That, of course, is not news. That was what General De Gaulle said in the sixties about the American concept of extended deterrence. He said that the US would not risk Washington and New York to save Paris. Therefore, France must have its own deterrent. Mr Bruce Riedel story would fully justify the Indian acquisition of its own retaliatory capability against a rogue state like Pakistan. He clearly tells us that the US President only gave a lecture to the Pakistani Prime Minister on the catastrophe that would result if a bomb was dropped when that Prime Minister had no control over the bomb but took no action whatsoever to warn the General who could have launched the weapon. Therefore, since in the absence of any warning from the US, General Musharraf did not proceed further with his nuclear threat even when he had to accept defeat and withdraw from Kargil, then it should how been due to the deterrence exercised by the Indian retaliatory capability. The conduct of the US in May-June 2002 was the same as on July 4, 1999. Pakistanis rattled their nuclear sabre. The US Ambassador in India lent credibility to the Pakistani nuclear threat by directing all US citizens to leave India. The US Administration otherwise kept quiet though some of the foreign ministers of the European Union countries came out in condemnation of the Pakistani sabre rattling. Surely, the Pakistani nuclear sabre-rattling and the US behaviour lending credibility to it should have confirmed the North Koreans in their strategy of nuclear sabre-rattling in their part of the world and the Iranians in their fears that living next to nuclear sabre-rattling Sunni Pakistan, they cannot afford to give up their uranium enrichment option. Both North Koreans and Iranians would be grateful to Mr Bruce Riedel for his thesis that the US is not likely to react to nuclear threats posed by rogue states to their neighbours. Often the Cuban missile crisis is cited to highlight the possibility of a nuclear war. What the Cuban missile crisis, taken together with Mr Riedel’s Kargil account and Ambassador Blackwill’s advice to the US citizens in India to leave this country during May-June 2002 establishes is the US will react against a nuclear threat when it is directed against its own home land or people and the US would not act if nuclear threats are directed against other countries. I do not know whether this is the real US policy. But Mr Riedel’s story and Mr Blackwill’s advisory would make it appear to be so. Surely, this is not the way of discouraging nuclear proliferation. |
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It’s dangerous to transfer control of headworks THE Rajasthan High Court’s May 2 order, later stayed by the apex court, directed the Central Government to help the BBMB take control of the headworks at Ropar, Harike and Ferozepur from the Punjab Irrigation Department. This was to ensure that the right to waters of the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi rivers allocated to Rajasthan was realised. The transfer of conrol of the headworks from a state government to another agency under control of the Central Government, as now planned, does not find any parallel in the engineering history of the country. So it cannot be said as what problems would be involved and how those could be solved. It is an accepted fact that the operational experience relating to canal headworks cannot be gained from textbooks, but would involve actual operation of a headwork. During the operation of the headworks the engineers learn through honest mistkaes and error of judgement and solutions are found. Very little of this finds place in writings or publications. It may be possible to transfer control of a headwork through an administrative or judicial order, but experience gained through the operation of a headwork cannot be transferred. The new agency will have to make a fresh start and learn by making same mistakes as made by the earlier agency. But handing over control to a new agency having no experience of operating such large canal headworks will be dangerous because a serious mistake may mean a complete washout of the headworks and its reconstruction will not only be costly, but also difficult. The headworks involved are those of Harike and Ferozepur located near or at the border. The Punjab irrigation engineers kept operative these headworks right through the wars with Pakistan. In the case of the Ferozepur headworks, several bays got damaged due to shelling but the Bikaner canal continued to receive water. To keep the Harike barrage operative was a difficult task. But the engineers did stick to their posts and operated the headworks. To their credit they have 53 years of operating experience in the case of Harike and 78 years in the case of the Ferozepur. Will the transfer of headworks deliver the allocated share of Rajasthan? The answer is no. This is because large parts of the feeder channels which carry water to Rajasthan will still be under the control and maintenance of the Punjab Irrigation Department. Punjab should be trusted to deliver the supply released by the BBMB from the Bhakra to the beneficiary state and distrust if any, must be removed by the political parties. Control over water and its distribution is a very emotive issue for any state and especially its farmers who form a very vocal and powerful lobby. We cannot afford another agitation to start up on what is perceived by the Punjabi farmer as threatening his currently available “share” of water. |
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From Pakistan LAHORE: Undernourished and suffering from various diseases, 22 children, who worked as camel jockeys in the United Arab Emirates, returned home on Tuesday. The children, aged between three and 12, were flown to Lahore from the Gulf state and put in the care of the Centre for Protection of Children. Minister for State for Overseas Pakistanis Tariq Azeem and representatives of the Punjab government received the children at Lahore Airport. Later, child specialist Dr Arshad Mehmood conducted medical check-up of the children, who were brought to the Child Protection Centre for the airport, diagnosing most of them with anaemia and other diseases such as undernourishment. A person, who accompanied the children from Dubai to the City, has said that he feared that some children might be hepatitis or HIV positive. — The Nation
Industrial zones
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has formally sought US help to establish qualified industrial zones (QIZs) in tribal and other terrorist-prone areas in an effort to reduce poverty and eradicate the menace of extremism. Officials told Dawn on Tuesday that the proposal had been discussed by Commerce Secretary Tasneem Noorani with US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christina Rocca and Deputy US Trade Representative Ambassador Josette Shiner in Washington recently. The officials said that Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz would formally discuss the proposal with top US officials during his visit to Washington next month. During the meeting, the Commerce Secretary emphasized that while military measures were necessary, these were only one part of the battle against extremism. He told the US officials it was important to get to the root of the problem. — The Dawn
Staff desert bank
ISLAMABAD: The officers and staff fearing account holds’ attacks have deserted all branches of the Islamic Investment Bank (IIB). The staff are not returning, even after the appointment of a new chairman for settling the affairs of the hugely defrauded bank. The Registrar of the Supreme Court, a number of high officials and the staff are in jail on account of a NAB order of arrest in a unique bank fraud case. These officials, in “collusion with the Registrar, Supreme Court, embezzled” the Supreme Court money that was kept in deposits of the IIB for profit. This money primarily belonged to the people who had deposited guarantees or had paid fines. The Peshawar High Court sent down a decision in this connection, commenting on the case while referring to the appointment of Nazir Chaudhry, FCA, a chartered accountant, as manager/chairman, with powers to execute the decisions for settling accounts after de-seating the present officials. The Supreme Court had, on knowing that the Registrar and the bank officials were misusing the money of the highest court of the country, ordered the NAB to take up the case, but it peeled the apple with an axe as hundreds of account holders got their payments frozen with no authority to turn to.
— The News |
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From the pages of Knotty caste problem
ANOTHER social question is engaging the attention of the advanced Marhatta Brahmins. A few months ago some Hindu gentlemen attended an evening party given by the Christian Missionaries of Poona. In the party 43 respectable Hindus took tea prepared by the Christian cooks. This bold step greatly annoyed the orthodox Hindus who at once called a meeting of the brotherhood to outcaste these gentlemen, but the educated section of the community mustered strong and they succeeded in convincing the leaders that until such Hindus as are openly violating caste rules in other respects are not turned out, these gentlemen should also be left alone. The advanced party, however, declines to do any penance and asserts that the Hindu society was never so narrow as the priests want to make it now. |
Happiness will never be any greater than the idea we have of it. — Book of quotations on Happiness If a man commits a sin, let him realize. Let him repent. Let him not to do it again. The accumulation of evil can be very painful indeed. — The Buddha The Immortal Soul resides within you. When you believe in the sacred truth, all fear of death vanishes away as darkness before the rising sun. — Book of quotations of Hinduism The flame of true repentance sear away all this sins. And the gateway to Heaven becomes visible to Man. —The Upanishads Like other things in life, happiness also does not come to lazy. We have to strive for it diligently. — Book of quotations
on Happiness  |
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