|
Urban decay: An outcome
of flawed policies On Record |
|
|
Rejoinder
Profile Reflections
Kashmir Diary Diversities — Delhi Letter
|
On Record
WITH the country so very dependent on monsoon rains, the India Meteorology Department (IMD) attains an all-important status in the beginning of summer every year with its forecast of the monsoon hitting the headlines in newspapers. The IMD’s monsoon assessment are closely monitored by the common man as also those in the corridors of power. A bad monsoon has the power to not only affect the life of the common man but can spell misfortune for governments. Fortunately, according to Additional Director-General of Meteorology Bhukan Lal, who heads the IMD, this year’s monsoon is expected to be near normal. Last year, besides the rains being 13 per cent deficient, there was also a forecast failure on the part of the IMD that compounded the misery of all concerned. Another good news is that in the past 200 years, there have been no two consecutive drought years. Mr Lal has vast experience of forecasting in various fields including aviation, agriculture, general forecast, instrumentation, hydrology and satellite meteorology. Associated with the IMD since 1970, he has written innumerable research papers on climatology, rainfall and agriculture for reputed scientific journals. Excerpts: Q: What is the IMD’s monsoon prediction for 2005? A: The IMD has predicted a normal monsoon with 98 per cent of the long period average for the country as a whole with an error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent. This forecast will be updated at the end of June when more information is available. Q: Will the monsoon keep its date with the North, Punjab, Haryana to be specific? How much rainfall do you predict for the region? A: It is too early to say how much rainfall the region will receive but as of date we do not predict any grim scenario over the region. This information will be further updated at the end of June. Right now with the available data all I can say is that the monsoon is progressing well. The normal date for the onset of monsoon over Delhi is June 29. In Punjab and Haryana, rains arrive around this date with a standard deviation of eight days. Q: What is your advice to the farmers in the region? A:
The rainfall in July will be very important for the farmers. The IMD is monitoring the performance and the progress of the monsoon on a daily basis and the information about July will be made available at the end of June. Q: Is the monsoon lacking in strength? A: No, reports in this regard are not correct. Q: How is the all-important El Nino factor linked to weak monsoon and even drought this time? A: As on date, the El Nino factors are near neutral, neither positive nor negative. But we are keeping a watch. Q:
There have been conflicting reports with Bangalore’s Centre for
Mathematical Modeling and Computing Simulation (CMMACS) in its long range
monsoon forecast for 2005 predicting 34 per cent deficiency in contrast to
IMD’s normal rainfall during June-Sept 2005. A: It is the CMMACS’ independent view. The IMD has no comments on their forecast. Our department is the nodal agency responsible for long-range weather and all meteorological forecasts in the country. Unless we are confident, we do not make any predictions. Q: But varied forecasts by two government agencies are leading to confusion among farmers. Why is there no coordination between different government agencies considering the importance of monsoon for the country? Shouldn’t there be a rule that only one agency will make monsoon predictions? A: Perhaps. But this is not for the IMD to decide and I have no comments on the issue. Q: What were the reasons for the IMD’s forecast failure in 2002 and 2004? If forewarned there is a scope for damage control from the very beginning. A: Monsoon is a very complex and difficult phenomenon. In India with its unique features of oceans on one side and mountains on the other side, this phenomenon becomes even more difficult to tackle. Several agencies worldwide are trying to tackle this problem. The IMD, which is the nodal agency in all matters pertaining to meteorology in the country, has been constantly trying to deal with this phenomenon. Incidentally, India was the first country to start operational long-range forecast. The department has been trying to redefine and refine the technique to give accurate long-range forecasts. Till 2002, we were issuing forecasts on the basis of 16 parameters. Because of the south-west monsoon failure in 2002, the 16-parameter model was redefined and in 2003 we issued monsoon forecast based on an eight to 10- parameter model in which predictions were issued in April and then again updated in the last week of June along with the forecast for the country as a whole and four homogeneous regions, besides the July rainfall. Q: How about putting in place an absolutely foolproof system? Is the IMD working on a better model for monsoon prediction? A: The eight to 10-parameter model applied in 2003 worked very well. Therefore, as of now, there is no reason to change it. In 2002, the failure of monsoon, particularly the July rainfall, could not be predicted by any modeling group the world
over. |
Rejoinder IN his article “Dalits in private sector will make India stronger” (Perspective, June 12), Udit Raj makes a forceful plea for quotas for dalits. But, unfortunately, he does not seem to bother about the detrimental effect of reservation on the Indian industry. The writer says that industrialists do not want to shoulder any responsibility towards the uplift of dalits, but he wants them to hire dalits simply on the basis of their caste, with absolutely no merit or ability. Reservation in private sector will adversely affect production and efficiency. Should we believe that providing employment to dalits on the basis of their caste would have helped Indian industry to increase its competitiveness? This is funny and ludicrous. Had it been so, our departments, boards and corporations at the Centre and in the states would have been the most competitive ones the world over. If we could not get a single gold medal in the Olympics, it does not justify caste-based reservations in sports. Good results can be ensured if our players are paid well and given proper training and facilities. Why not demand reservations in the Army? The Army is finding it difficult to get many vacancies filled up because it wants men of calibre. If a dalit is meritorious, he must get a job, but not otherwise. Our companies should publish details of dalits employed by them on merit rather than caste. If no dalit occupies top position in any of our prestigious companies, who has stopped them from being there? Dalits are getting educated in AIIMS, IITs, IIMs and other world class institutes, at the cost of the taxpayers’ money, depriving many meritorious students belonging to general categories. Is it justifiable? No one has denied dalits an opportunity to compete and shine. They have been enjoying reservation since 1950. How many of the dalit families in the upper strata have refused reservation after getting good education and plum posts in the civil services over the years? Clearly, sons and daughters of dalits (either government employees or political representatives) exercise a monopoly of the jobs in government service. Had reservation been confined to only one person in one family, there would have been a perceptible change in the past 57 years. But the benefits of the downtrodden continued to be usurped by the “super dalits”. The writer claims that our industrialists employ poor human resource. At the same time, he demands quota. No one can call a person inefficient or low on the basis of caste but when some people demand caste-based quota, they prove that they are inefficient and lacking in merit. The writer’s views in defence of quota fail the test of reasoning and logic. Clearly, reservations in private sector will weaken, not strengthen
India. |
Profile by Harihar Swarup Visiting Pakistan for Yasin Malik is not new but the firebrand JKLF leader was a much subdued man when he boarded the bus for Muzaffarabad early this month. Having bid farewell to arms, he no longer espouses gun culture. Much has changed since he crossed over the borders for the first time 17 years back. His mission then was to obtain training in the use of sophisticated weapons with the avowed objective of unleashing a reign of terror and subversion and, thereby, disrupting normal life in Kashmir. His accomplices in June 1988 were three “misguided” youth and they did not carry passports; they just sneaked into POK. Only one of them has managed to survive. In June 2005, Yasin Malik was a member of the Hurriyat delegation on a peace mission to Pakistan. JKLF’s goodbye to arms led to a bloody confrontation with Pakistan-based Hizbul Mujahideen, known to be the most lethal militant outfit till date. Hizb dubbed Malik and his associates as “traitors”. Unwittingly perhaps during his Pakistan visit, Malik exposed a well-guarded secret. When militancy was at its peak, Pakistan’s present Information Shekih Rashid Ahmed Khan set up a camp in which 3,500 militants were trained in guerilla warfare and Malik was one of them. Though Sheikh Rashid and Malik have refuted this, the existence of a camp at Sheikh’s sprawling farm house, near
Peshawar, has been vouched by former Pakistani politicians, army men and ISI functionaries. Former Interior Minister, Naseerullah Babar is reported to have said: “In 1989 Rashid had himself confessed running a training-cum-refugee camp”. The result: Sheikh Rashid’s forthcoming visit to Kashmir has run into jeopardy. A full-blooded Kashmiri, Rashid is slated to travel to Srinagar on June 30 by the Muzaffarabad-Srinagar bus service to meet his relatives and visit the graves of elders. He said that if New Delhi did not grant him permission to visit Kashmir, the ongoing peace process between Pakistan and India would “receive a setback”. Even though Yasin Malik, heading the JKLF, has given up armed struggle, his is a dissenting voice in the Hurriyat Conference. He favours an independent Jammu and Kashmir and wants a central place for Kashmiris on the negotiating table. He also disagrees with the Hurriyat Chairman, Mirwaiz Omar Farooq that their recent Pakistan visit marks the beginning of a triangular process towards resolution of the Kashmir issue. Yasin feels that the Hurriyat leaders’ Pakistan visit did not yield any tangible result and it is no more than a “photo opportunity” trip. Observers say, it is a matter of time before Malik may be pitted against the Mirwaiz faction in the Hurriyat. Malik may not be as aggressive now as he was a decade back but he continues to be a rebel. Rebellion, as if, has become part of the personality of this lanky leader with brooding eyes. He became a rebel against the system in 1980 when he was barely a 13-year-old student studying in Standard VIII. While still in his teens, he turned down a modeling offer from a German firm. In 1986, Malik founded the Islamic Students’ League. In 1987 elections, he campaigned for Muslim United Front (MUF) candidate, Mohammed Yusuf Shah. The elections were rigged and Shah, despite having secured highest votes, was declared defeated. The signs of militancy was shown during this election. Shah later crossed over to Pakistan and became Syed Salahuddin, leading the most ruthless and murderous group of militants which came to be known as Hizbul Mujahideen. Yasin Malik’s stint as militant was short (1988-92) but militancy touched its peak. Kidnapping of the daughter of Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed (then the Union Home Minister), Dr Rubaiya Sayeed, was among other acts of terror.Yasin and his accomplices were nabbed and jailed. The people of Kashmir soon realised that the slogan of “Azadi” was hollow but Yasin persists with the illusive
objective. |
Plight of voiceless women by Kiran Bedi HAS God not been unjust to women by entrusting the biological capabilities of giving birth to humankind without arming them with all the essential resources? I wonder was it on purpose? To keep the woman dependent, restricted and subjugated? For one of the first immediate consequence of motherhood, be it the beginning or during, is the impact on health. Alongside is restricted mobility. Thereafter the nurturance of the child till the child is grown up to take care of himself and be self-dependent. I was a speaker at a very well attended seminar organised by the Indian Medical Association and Jan Uday, an NGO. In fact, I was happily surprised to see such a big attendance of men besides, of course, women for whose case it was pleading! Professional speakers’ comprising nutrition experts, gynaecologists, psychologists and sociologists listed out the challenges before the audience of overlooking the special needs of prospective and expectant mothers and thereafter in bringing up the children. Having been preceded by such experts who shared researched data, it was evident that nature had been unjust to the woman to a great extent. And certainly towards those millions of women who are left to fend for themselves in such a state (prenatal, during and after motherhood), be it rich or poor. And India has millions of them! It is sheer agony and pain especially for a poor or a lonely woman to bear children when there may be really no one who cares and understands what she is likely to go through once she is pregnant. An expectant mother, especially in such circumstances was reported (as informed by the preceding experts) to be suffering from innumerable inadequacies. Some of the identified and impacting ones being: a) Accidental and frequent pregnancies over which she literally had little or no control. b) If underage or otherwise, in most cases, she does not even understand what it means to be pregnant? The impregnating man, hopefully a father (sic) is rarely bothered to see whether the prospective ‘mother’ is mentally and physically prepared to be one. c) Absence of a near or dear one who may be oriented or interested in providing her the wherewithal to understand pregnancy. d) The expectant mother just goes through the nine months hoping that all will be well. And in the end will be gifted by a son? e) Most serious is when she goes in for a child hoping it will correct a deviant father. (I have seen many such cases in our Navjyoti Family Counseling centres) I believe that two of the most futuristic-social responsibilities are: one of being a public representative and second being a parent. Both are known never to receive any serious training or even prior counselling for their responsibility ahead. There is no known training or counselling service for them either. Their responsibilities are not recognised as disciplines to be learnt, when there is no doubt in the enormous contribution both these responsibilities make towards the future of nation building! Young couples wanting to become parents are at times totally ignorant of what being a parent means? The prospective mother is even more clueless. At times for months she does not even get to know that she is pregnant. I have known a case of a woman who was six months pregnant and had no idea that she was expecting her second child. She thought she was merely putting on weight. The husbands too are ignorant or indifferent as to how they can support their wives carrying their child. During delivery, fathers are no where near. They are even afraid to hold their new born child in their arms. They are not there to realise how extremely painful it was for the mother to deliver. How much of her goes into nurturing during and after is immeasurable. But only she knows. All her own nutrition goes to her child in delivering and feeding. And there is usually nothing extra for her. So her body ages as many times, while the man is the same, ready and almost waiting to demand the next one. The poorly spaced children are born weaker and impoverished. The woman like livestock at times aborts or delivers back to back with her body getting not much time to recuperate. I wonder at times what if nature or God had given this capability to men. Would the men have died in child birth? Would they have been malnourished? Would the women have been absent at the time of their delivery? Would men have lost work or given it up? And would they have gone on to have as many children to make our country’s population over a billion? And would they have accepted domestic violence for not delivering the preferred gender? And would then women have been raped? This is how one’s heart can cry out when confronted with ground realities of the voiceless women! While the law of nature is irreversible, the state of affairs can be reversed. It lies in giving all human kind a sensitive and a grateful heart. It is obvious that God needs to do some more homework ! |
Kashmir Diary
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s proposal to open a road between Kargil and Skardu has immense strategic significance. It would turn Kashmir once again into a crossroad between the Indian plains and the ancient Silk Route to both China’s Xinkiang province and Central Asia. Until 60 years ago, the outer walls of Srinagar’s vast Jamia mosque were lined with stalls, godowns and tethered mules, all carrying wears imported from Central Asia or local wears on their way there. The dangerous mule tracks then used have been replaced by sophisticated roads as the Karakoram highway and the potential for trade, energy and geophysical security cannot be overemphasised. Kashmiris have never forgotten their Central Asian connections — the carpets, carved samovars, the Wazwan culinary wizardry and much else. Kashmir University has a department of Central Asian Studies and the rough map near its entrance shows Kashmir as part of the sprawling Central Asian region. In the new age of globalised connectivity, Kashmir could become India’s connection with Central Asia the way the new highway through Myanmar to Thailand has made the north-eastern states the gateway to South East Asia. Just as Kargil is on the road to Leh, Skardu is on the way to Gilgit, the centre of the icy plateau that covers half of Jammu and Kashmir. It is a sparsely populated area but the largely Shia population has always been fiercely independent. Though Pakistan keeps a tight lid on the situation there, occasional reports have spoken of dissatisfaction with the status quo. So tenuous has Pakistan’s emotional hold on the area been, and so obvious its geostrategic value that Pakistan integrated it as its Northern Areas province several decades ago. It only refers to the narrow strip along the Jhelum on the south-western flank of the state as Azad Kashmir. That more thickly populated area comprising Mirpur, a large part of the erstwhile Poonch principality and the Muzaffarabad area, is closer to Punjab in language, culture and politics. No wonder, Pakistan has always felt secure enough about its emotional proximity to declare the place as “azad” (free), although no government can take office there without pledging its allegiance to Pakistan. Over the years, the Gilgit area’s strategic importance has increased manifold. Central Asia is emerging as the arena of the new Great Game for fossil fuels. On the other hand, China’s burgeoning economy needs the Karakoram Highway to access West Asia and the warm waters of the Arabian Sea, which greatly shorten the shipping distance for its exports to Europe. Depending on Pakistan’s response to India’s proposal, that highway could either become India’s access to Central Asia (and north-western China) or China’s buffer against such access. The strategic significance of the Gilgit plateau may have increased since the collapse of the Soviet Union but its geo-strategic value is not new. It was in the 1860s that the British realised the strategic potential of the north-western half of what used to be the Dogra kingdom. Beginning a series of attempts to control the area, they persuaded Maharaja Ranbir Singh to allow a Gilgit Agent in 1877. The British used Kashmir’s rebellion against the Dogras in 1931 to negotiate the Gilgit Lease, which effectively returned that part of the kingdom to direct British control. That lease gave Britain crucial leverage in 1947. In October, Major Brown unfurled the Pakistani flag on the Gilgit fort and declared that the area had acceded to Pakistan. After that fait accompli almost six decades ago, India’s recent proposal is the first attempt to turn fences into bridges. It is for Pakistan to respond. |
|
IIC staff to show their creative talent by Humra Quraishi
A
great concept that got introduced last year at the India International Centre (IIC) will be repeated. Brainchild of IIC’s Programme Director Premola Ghose, it’s called ‘Centre ke Chhupe Rustom’. As the very title suggests, it brings to the fore the creative talent of the staff of the Centre. Last year, I had viewed this exhibition and was amazed to see the creative works of senior staff members, cooks, waiters, plumbers and electricians. This year, it is scheduled to be held from June 22-26 and the canvas has been stretched further to poetry readings from the original works. Good to know that the man who cooks can actually chirp too or the man who dusts and cleans can also be a romantic poet. I wish other institutions and workplaces take note of this concept and provide a platform to their staff to show their artistic prowess. Meanwhile, there have been ongoing programmes in memory of Sunil Dutt. This week India International Centre is remembering Dutt by screening four of his films, Sujata, Mother India, Hamraaz, and Padosan.
Music Day to beat the heat
Let me try to distract you from the grim, mercury-shooting-high scenario. The day of my filing this column is being celebrated here as Music day, June 18 as against June 21, the actual Music day. The concept and take off started off way back in 1981, keeping the European mood of the long summer. But then, I am not too sure whether the heat here adds to the flavour or depletes. Garden of Five Senses, which is just off Qutb Minar and Mehrauli, is the chosen venue for Music day celebrations and renderings. And a whole list of bands stand lined up — Mrigya, Manipuri Percussion Trio, Yugalbandi, Artists Unlimited. Amongst individuals, prominent is the name of Rabbi Shergill. I have heard him once before at the friend’s reception and more than his music and singing, it’s his background which intrigued. Born in a middle class Jat Sikh family, where music was the last item on the agenda, so to say, Rabbi built his passion. And when he sings, it does seem to come forth from his heart and soul.
Chaman Nahal, the writer
I was taken aback seeing the numbers who had turned up on June 15 evening to hear and interact with writer Chaman Nahal. It was one of those Sahitya Akademi’s ‘Meet the author’ evenings. Though Nahal is known to be withdrawn, the hall was packed to hear him talk about his life, his writings. His autobiography, ‘Silent Life: Memoirs of a Writer’ is there, is laced with details about turns and twists. Nahal’s family had fled to Delhi in 1947 after Partition. He lost his elder sister during the Partition riots, who was assassinated along with her husband. This left a major impact on him and on his subsequent writings. Then, his meetings with Mahatma Gandhi also left a lasting impression. During his prayer meetings at Birla House in 1947, Mahatma Gandhi told him, “the ability of a person to face any threat to his integrity through an inner strength.” This influenced him so much that Nahal penned four novels in 25 years revolving around the freedom struggle. The other person to have influenced Nahal was J.
Krishnamurti. |
The moment you find a defect in another remember to look within yourself. — Swami A. Parthasarathy The ability to cherish God’s name is attained through His grace. — Guru Nanak Want of punctuality is a want of virtue. — J. M. Mason Good company and good discourse are the very sinews of virtue. — Izaak Walton He alone is dear to God, who utters His name. — Guru Nanak God is great, and therefore he will be sought; he is good, and therefore he will be found. — John Jay There is a God in science, a God in history, and a God in conscience, and these three are one. — Joseph Cook |
HOME PAGE | |
Punjab | Haryana | Jammu & Kashmir |
Himachal Pradesh | Regional Briefs |
Nation | Opinions | | Business | Sports | World | Mailbag | Chandigarh | Ludhiana | Delhi | | Calendar | Weather | Archive | Subscribe | Suggestion | E-mail | |