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One more step forward Aircraft carrier at last |
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China discovers multipolarity
Stars tell tales
Depression deepens
for tsunami victims US economy skating on
thin ice Mobiles do not cause tumours, scientists find
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One more step forward Asia’s Big Two – India and China – have decided to build a new relationship of the kind the two neighbours ought to have in the 21st century. Guided more by mature judgement and statesmanship than emotions, Dr Manmohan Singh and the Chinese Prime Minister, Mr Wen Jiabao, have during their just-concluded talks chosen to resolve outstanding issues keeping in mind overall and strategic interests of the two countries. Not that the sentimental Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai spirit permeated the atmosphere in the talks between the two Prime Ministers and their officials. Besides the obvious warmth, a dispassionate view of the emerging world has obviously led the two countries to think with greater clarity and understanding than ever before about their future relations. That China has accepted Sikkim as a part of the Republic of India was known for the last year and a half, but the presentation by the Chinese Prime Minister of a map showing Sikkim as a part of India certainly makes it official, removing at the same time any doubt that may have been lingering in the Indian mind. What is of greater significance is the “Guiding Principles” and a set of parameters that the Special Representatives of the two countries have worked out to sort out the long-outstanding border dispute that pushed the two countries over four decades ago. The “Guiding Principles” and the parameters, read in fine print, are clearly aimed at seeking a political settlement of the boundary question keeping in mind the overall and long-term interests of the two nations. The statement containing the “Guiding Principles” has a lot to convey when it says: “Both sides should, in the spirit of mutual respect and mutual understanding, make meaningful and mutually acceptable adjustments to their respective positions on the boundary question, so as to arrive at the package settlement to the boundary question. The boundary settlement must be final, covering all sectors of the India-China boundary. “In reaching a boundary settlement, the two sides shall safeguard due interests of their settled populations in the border areas. The two Special Representatives would now work to set up a framework for a settlement.” The two governments have clearly gone beyond the general proposition, laying down broad parameters for a political and overall settlement of the border question for all the three sectors. There is a clear hint of the two countries agreeing to work towards a give-and-take deal in which territorial concessions can be mutually exchanged by them in different sectors. How long it will take for the two countries to make adjustments in their respective positions and work out a package deal will depend on the labours of the two Special Representatives, Mr M.K. Narayanan and Mr Dai Bingguo, but the two Prime Ministers would certainly like that the attempt should be made to get the border dispute out of the way so that the new relationship they envisage can be built on surer foundations. This is evident from the two countries’ resolve to step up their trade to $20 billion a year from the present $14 billion, to go in for greater cooperation in civil aviation and areas like energy and information technology. The two countries seem to be getting on to the right track and, considering the international situation, are unlikely to change course. Not that there is identity of views on every issue. India, for instance, has serious reservations on China’s continuing military and nuclear assistance to Pakistan and the Delhi talks could not be expected to make Beijing walk out on Pakistan to please India. India also cannot be expected by Beijing to give up its own options in foreign policy for the sake of its decision to go on improving relations with China. Yet for Beijing and New Delhi to have decided to build bridges of friendship is a positive and hopeful development for both countries, as also for Asia. It throws up many possibilities, including that of a package deal on the border question, not in the near future, but over a period of time. |
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Aircraft carrier at last With steel cutting having begun for the building of an indigenous Air Defence Ship (ADS) at Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL), a project first conceived over 15 years ago finally has got underway. Realising the 37,500 tonne, 252-metre-long aircraft carrier project will put India among a small group of nations that can build their own aircraft carriers, and will be our key to a long range force projection over the waves, if not an actual blue water capability for the Indian Navy. To rule the waves, the Navy is fond of saying, you have to rule the skies above, and the depths below. Some might question the need for such force projection, but clearly, the emerging security environment in no way obviates the need for a country like India to maintain a broad spectrum of strategic land, sea, and air platforms. Old realpolitik imperatives continue to persist in the way international relations are conducted, and the need to protect our sea lanes and closely monitor what is happening in the Indian Ocean will only increase in a world characterized by more global links and exchanges on the one hand, and the rise of many non-conventional threats on the other. The need now is to put in place workable project management and systems to minimise delays and cost over-runs that are the bane of all our defence projects. This is India’s most ambitious ship building effort. The indigenous destroyer, INS Delhi, displaces 6,700 metric tones. The new ADS, capable of carrying a complement of 30 carrier-borne fighters, and a range of 7,500 nautical miles with an endurance of 45 days, is to be operational by 2012. We have already had to delay the decommissioning of the lone carrier, the INS Viraat, even as we await the arrival of the 44,570 tonne INS Vikramaditya, the erstwhile Admiral Gorshkov, sometime in 2008. CSL, the Italian partners Fincantieri, the Navy, and the other Indian agencies have to push hard. That way we can even think about the follow-on third carrier that the Navy has been pressing for. |
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Little minds are interested in the extraordinary; great minds in the commonplace.
— Albert Hubbard |
China discovers multipolarity
There can be no two opinions that Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s visit to India has resulted in significant progress not only in terms of Sino-Indian relations but also the international balance of power. For the first time the Chinese leadership gave up its hegemonism and recognised that India-China relations had acquired a global and strategic character and, therefore, it was agreed to establish an India-China strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity. Till now China never conceded that India was anything but a regional power with a limited regional role. Now China reiterates that India is an important developing country and is having an increasingly important influence in the international arena and China now attaches great importance to the status of India in international affairs. One wonders whether this new wisdom dawned on the Chinese leadership after the US made it clear on March 25, 2005, that it was its intention to help India to build itself as a major world power in the 21st century. If that were the case, then the Chinese leadership should be credited with developing a quicker understanding of the international balance of power politics in the 21st century than sections of the Indian leadership. Presumably, the Chinese leadership has taken note of many recent US assessments that in the next few decades the US, China and India would develop as the first three major markets of the world and the top three knowledge-based societies. Mr Wen and the rest of the Chinese politburo members are all engineers. Hence Premier Wen’s extraordinary attention to the Indian scientific community and emphasis on cooperation between the two countries on science and technology. Initial comments on the joint statement have not taken note of the fact that there is no mention about the desirability of multi-polarity which is a favourite theme of the Chinese. The reason for that is obvious. When knowledge becomes the currency of power then there will automatically be a tripolar world consisting of the US, China and India. The Chinese are also aware, being the pastmasters in the balance of power game, that India will be in a position to tilt the balance between itself and the US in favour of one or the other. The US has declared its intention to attract India to its side. Hence China can no longer talk of India as a mere regional power. Yet, contrary to the usual hype of some of our media sections, China has stopped short of endorsing the case of India as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Please read carefully the joint statement. It says, “The Indian side reiterated its aspirations for permanent membership of the UN Security Council. The Chinese side also reiterated that India is an important developing country and is having an increasingly important influence in the international arena. China attaches great importance to the status of India in international affairs. It understands and supports India’s aspirations to play an active role in the UN and international affairs”. This patronising formulation does not necessarily mean that they would support India’s candidature for permanent membership of the Security Council. Their language has similarities to American formulation about India playing a greater role in international bodies. Those who made much of Mr Wen’s remark that “China would welcome India’s emergence in the Security Council’’ have to ponder over that remark. China could veto Japan’s candidature to the permanent membership and India will not be able to become a permanent member without Japan becoming one. There are also two sets of proposals on the expansion of the Security Council membership. While one is for permanent membership and the other is for an eight-year tenure. The Chinese have studiously avoided stating specifically that they support India becoming a permanent member. In Tuesday’s Press conference the Chinese Premier was less ambiguous and more clear about China’s non-endorsement. It is possible that as their education in international politics continues they may finally come round. There should, however, be no delusion that they have already come round to support India for permanent membership of the Security Council. The Chinese have again succeeded in finding a formula to postpone settling the border dispute. It is now called “guiding principles for settlement of the boundary dispute”. It is time India adopted a more relaxed attitude on the border issue. No amount of negotiation is going to get India any of the territory under Chinese occupation. The chances of the Chinese using force to acquire more territory do not appear high. More the Indian side displays anxiety to settle the border dispute more leverage it gives to the Chinese. Sections of our media have vested interest in hyping the border issue. India can afford to be as cool about the border as China is. The Chinese are genuine in their ambitions to step up their trade with India and also in their professions to have Indian collaboration in IT. If India is a nation which carries out a long-range assessment and plans on that basis, then India can convert this Chinese need into an effective leverage. Unfortunately India with its reactive decision-making culture and dormant National Security Council is far from adopting such a strategy. In the next two days our Foreign Minister will be in Washington conferring with the US Secretary of State. By the end of the week, General Musharraf is expected in Delhi. The change in Chinese perspective vis-a-vis India will be taken note of in these meetings. The country most affected by the newly developing balance of power game in which India is getting to be recognised as a global player by both China and the US is Pakistan. One wonders whether General Musharraf would display sufficient understanding of this new game of nations or continues to be under the delusion that his continued tantrums would give him dividends. When the US, China and India are focussed on science, technology and knowledge-based societies, General Musharraf is still to do what he promised the world in his speech of January 12, 2002, on modernising the madarsa education in Pakistan. The US and China have a stake in ensuring that Pakistan does not become a failed state and General Musharraf is enabled to move forward towards a moderate Islamic state status. He has to ponder over whether he is fulfilling their mandate by his excessive obsession on Kashmir. |
Stars tell tales
I
have nothing against astrology and everything against astrologers. Being a more - than - naturally -curious person I have been hooked on astrological predictions ever since I was able to read. As soon as I lay my hand on a magazine or a Sunday supplement, I make a dart for the page that carries the “Stars foretell’ or “Zodiac sign” or “This month/week/day for you” column as the case may be, and zero in with nervous trepidation on the predictions under my sun sign. But unfortunately the astrologers have let me down: badly. Take this prediction that came out in a premier magazine just a week back. “Your bank manager can sigh with relief as your spending drops dramatically. But you still have to make a fair effort to keep your rate of earning up. All new ideas should be thoroughly explored and nothing left to chance. Touching gestures of affection will come from people all around you. Health should improve suddenly”. It beats me why my bank manager (who is surely oblivious of my existence!) should sigh with relief. If anybody should sigh with relief (in case my spending drops that is) it should be only me! Even the missus is hardly bothered. I am the sole bread-earner, aren’t I? so where the money comes from is my problem, not hers. That in short is her approach to the whole issue.And what is the meaning of this ‘effort to keep your earnings up’? That has been my effort ever since I was required to earn a living!Efforts that have come to grief because my spending has always zoomed past my earnings. And ideas? I have had enough of them. It was Puja time and all and sundry touched me for God-known-how- many tenners as baksheesh. Wonder if that is what the astrologer meant when he predicted about the “touching gestures of affection”. As far as my health was concerned I did not know there was anything wrong with it or that it needed improvement! Then I confronted this, “Now that all the internal disputes have been resolved thanks to your wait-and-attack strategy, you can sit back and enjoy the good times. Thing is, you are so wound up, it will take time for you to let your hair down. Romance will come sneaking back, most of it illicit”. The injustice of it made me sore. What the hell is this bloke talking about? Here I am surrounded by disputes of all kinds, internal and external, and I do not have a clue as to how to resolve them. And what strategy? Had I had any, would I have let myself in for this mess? Wound-up I am, but letting my hair down is literally impossible for my thatch is all gone. Is it some kind of a joke? Romance, that too illicit, my-my, this chap is out to break up my home and land me in the nearest lockup! I resolved not to bestow even a glance on the predictions any more. But very soon my resolutions started wearing thin and when I got this new magazine, before I knew anything, I had flipped the pages and was glued to “Starlight” .”You are prone to mental lapses,” it said . Oh, yes that was a bull’s eye. I am bound to have mental lapses, otherwise why should I keep running back to star forecast when all my life I have been taken for a royal ride by these blasted
astrologers!
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Depression deepens
for tsunami victims Hundred days is perhaps enough time for one to overcome a tragedy and restart one’s life. But the experience of the December 26 tsunami victims is proving to be otherwise. For them, emotions still range from paranoia and numbness to the recurring nightmare of another impending catastrophe. That they are not completely safe from the vagaries of nature became evident on March 28 night when a strong earthquake shook the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia. Although the late night trembler deep under the sea did not trigger another tsunami, people of this coastal village did not catch even a wink for fear of being struck by killer waves again. “The realisation of the fragility of life is affecting their psychosocial behaviour. Even if they want to forget their past, nature is not sparing them,” says a psychosocial programme officer in Jaffna who is supporting not only orphans but also hundreds of couples who have lost their children. Among the several counselling centres that have come up in Jaffna after last year’s tsunami, there are many that are treating parents who have taken to alcohol. “Depression leading to prolonged lethargy is causing severe psychosocial problems. Many of the victims were trying to cope with the destruction and displacement caused by the decade-and-a-half-old internal conflict and the recent floods when the tsunami struck,” according to Rajaraththinam Themgarajah, 34, an internally displaced person at the Kalady camp in Eachchilampattu who is helping 195 tsunami-affected families. The World Health Orgainsation has estimated that 30-50 per cent of those directly affected will have psychosocial problems and would benefit from the support system. Another 5-10 per cent will develop severe problems and need specific intervention and treatment. Prof Daya Somasundaram, who along with three others prepared a report on behalf of the Mental Health Task Force in Disaster, says that many men who have lost their wives are taking to alcohol to cope with the sudden responsibility of handling children and babies. Many victims suffer from a feeling of guilt as they felt they couldn’t save their family members. This could lead to suicidal tendencies. “Many adolescents who lost their parents have become quiet, withdrawn and angry. And this vulnerable age group runs the risk of deviant personality development,” he says. In Trincomalee district, most of the families affected by the tsunami belong to the fishing community. A World Bank report pointed out that almost 60 per cent of the 28,067 persons who were economically affected by the tsunami were fisher folk. Another 7,538 were daily labourers and 1884 were farmers. These persons have lost everything — their families, homes, boats and livelihood — and become poorer than before. In Eachchilampatu along the coastline, the land has become totally flat and the leaves of the coconut trees have turned brown. Several coconut trees are without tops due to the heavy shelling in the last battle between the Sri Lankan Army and the LTTE. In Killinochee and Mullaithivu, men and women do nothing other than brood over their fate in their tents. Children either wander about aimlessly or go to makeshift schools. “This may not be an immediate problem but it can have a psychological impact in the long run,” says K.Yoganathan, a schoolteacher in Kudathani. Although the victims are desperate to restart their normal lives, they see a bleak future. People like Rajaraththinam and others across the North and East have complete trust on the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which was the first to their aid and still helping the affected people to bring peace to the disorder the tsunami had left. From providing thousands of tents, non-food items, water, sanitation immediately, the ICRC is now coordinating the projects that others have taken up so that things can be put to place in an organised and systematic manner. Undoubtedly, the Tamil Rehabilitation Organisation, a wing of the LTTE, was in full gear to protect the people initially. But it appears to be a difficult challenge to meet the people’s demands, needs and expectations fully. For Nicolas Stella, 34, the sound of fury of the sea never stops haunting her. She recalls how she forgot being a woman and dug out mutilated bodies, identified them and helped in preparing the bodies for final rites. “What to do, nature is such. But life has to go on,” she says with a mixture of hope and despair. She is working as a health worker for the Sri Lanka Red Cross Society. There are also people like Abdul Jaffar Ameen, 37, a boatman with the ICRC who was carrying a logistician on that fateful Sunday morning to survey the flood-affected areas. Abdul says the seawater suddenly started stirring and he immediately returned to the shore. After three hours when he returned to Mutur, a Muslim-dominated area, he saw that his world had been swept away. His wife, Faseela (32), who climbed a tree, could only save their 12-year-old son. She didn’t realise that their three-month-old baby son and a six-year-old nephew had slipped away from her hands. Abdul went back to the sea after three days because the “sea is still my friend”. Faseela too didn’t stop him because she believes that “nature gives and nature takes away too”. |
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US economy skating on
thin ice The U.S. expansion appears on track. Europe and Japan may lack exuberance, but their economies are at least on the plus side. China and India—with close to 40 percent of the world’s population—have sustained growth at rates that not so long ago would have seemed, if not impossible, highly improbable. Yet, under the placid surface, there are disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks—call them what you will. Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it. To be sure, businesses have begun to rebuild their financial reserves. But in the space of a few years, the federal deficit has come to offset that source of national savings. We are buying a lot of housing at rising prices, but home ownership has become a vehicle for borrowing as much as a source of financial security. As a nation we are consuming and investing about 6 percent more than we are producing. What holds it all together is a massive and growing flow of capital from abroad, running to more than $2 billion every working day, and growing. There is no sense of strain. As a nation we don’t consciously borrow or beg. We aren’t even offering attractive interest rates, nor do we have to offer our creditors protection against the risk of a declining dollar. Most of the time, it has been private capital that has freely flowed into our markets from abroad—where better to invest in an uncertain world, the refrain has gone, than the United States? More recently, we’ve become more dependent on foreign central banks, particularly in China and Japan and elsewhere in East Asia. It’s all quite comfortable for us. We fill our shops and our garages with goods from abroad, and the competition has been a powerful restraint on our internal prices. It’s surely helped keep interest rates exceptionally low despite our vanishing savings and rapid growth. And it’s comfortable for our trading partners and for those supplying the capital. Some, such as China, depend heavily on our expanding domestic markets. And for the most part, the central banks of the emerging world have been willing to hold more and more dollars, which are, after all, the closest thing the world has to a truly international currency. The difficulty is that this seemingly comfortable pattern can’t go on indefinitely. I don’t know of any country that has managed to consume and invest 6 percent more than it produces for long. The United States is absorbing about 80 percent of the net flow of international capital. And at some point, both central banks and private institutions will have their fill of dollars. I don’t know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change. It’s not that it is so difficult intellectually to set out a scenario for a ``soft landing’’ and sustained growth. There is a wide area of agreement among establishment economists about a textbook pretty picture: China and other continental Asian economies should permit and encourage a substantial exchange rate appreciation against the dollar. Japan and Europe should work promptly and aggressively toward domestic stimulus and deal more effectively and speedily with structural obstacles to growth. And the United States, by some combination of measures, should forcibly increase its rate of internal saving, thereby reducing its import demand. But can we, with any degree of confidence today, look forward to any one of these policies being put in place any time soon, much less a combination of all? The answer is no. So I think we are skating on increasingly thin ice. On the present trajectory, the deficits and imbalances will increase. At some point, the sense of confidence in capital markets that today so benignly supports the flow of funds to the United States and the growing world economy could fade. Then some event, or combination of events, could come along to disturb markets, with damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates. We had a taste of that in the stagflation of the 1970s—a volatile and depressed dollar, inflationary pressures, a sudden increase in interest rates and a couple of big recessions. — LA Times-Washington Post |
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Mobiles do not cause tumours, scientists find One of the most comprehensive studies into the dangers of mobile phones has found no link between how often they are used and the risk of developing brain
tumours. But scientists said that although they could not establish a link between the two, they could not rule out the possibility that mobile handsets may cause long-term health problems, and even head cancers. Researchers questioned more than 1,200 people, of whom 822 were healthy and 427 had brain tumours. When they compared the two groups, they found the risk of developing a brain tumour was not related to the frequency of mobile phone calls or the number of years they had been used. Christoffer Johansen, of the Danish Cancer Society in Copenhagen, said the research findings supported earlier studies that found no links between brain tumours and mobile phones. “I think we’re becoming more convinced the use of mobile phones does not pose a risk in terms of brain cancer,” Professor Johansen said. “In terms of brain tumours, the door is now more closed than it was on the question but, before we can turn the key in the lock, we need to study a high number of long-term, heavy users of mobile phones.” The Danish study looked at the two main types of brain tumour - glioma and meningioma - and found that neither was related to mobile phone use. They also found that there was no association between the side of the head habitually used by a mobile phone user and on which side of the brain a tumour developed. By checking the mobile phone bills of 27 people with brain tumours and 47 people without tumours, the researchers were also able to assess how good the each person’s memory was in terms of how they recalled using their phones. They found that people accurately remembered the number of calls they made but did not accurately remember the length of those calls. The scientists also checked to see whether patients with tumours were more likely to exaggerate their mobile phone habits than healthy patients - they were not. “We’ve no reason to believe that the people who took part in the study were not reporting their phone use faithfully,” Professor Johansen said. Several laboratory studies have suggested that the radiation emanating from mobile phones could damage living tissues and one in particular demonstrated that a long conversation on a mobile phone can cause small temperature rises in the brain. Most large-scale epidemiological studies have however failed to find a link between ill health and excessive mobile phone use. Nevertheless, some have found a statistically significant association, Professor Johansen said. “There have been a few studies that found an increased risk of brain tumours with phone use but those studies have been criticised for problems with the study design,” he said. “Taken together, the weight of evidence does not indicate that cellular telephones are a risk factor of glioma or meningioma of the brain. Nevertheless, in all the studies the numbers of long-term users and heavy users are limited, obviating any firm conclusion. “In our study, few persons reported regular cellular telephone use for 10 years or more. We won’t be able to make any firm conclusions on this issue until we can confirm these results with studies with more long-term and heavy cell-phone users,” Professor Johansen said. An official inquiry into the health risks of mobile phones in Britain has recommended children under eight should not be allowed to use phones and older children between eight and 14 should only use them when absolutely necessary. Professor Johansen said the latest study published in the journal Neurology was the most comprehensive and detailed so far but it did not include children so the findings were only applicable to adults. He said the next phase of the research was scheduled to be an investigation into the small number of children with brain tumours to see if they could be linked with the use of mobile phones. Previous studies are inconclusive. Test-tube studies have indicated the radiofrequency fields emitted by mobile phones could, in certain circumstances, damage living cells. —The Independent |
Purity of speech and hospitality is Islam. — Prophet Muhammad Do not kill. Do not commit adultery. Do not steal. Do not bear false witness. — Jesus Christ Intuition, intellect and consciousness are gained through God’s name. — Guru Nanak The object and goal of life is that every human being should realise the divinity within himself. You should realise your unity with God. — Swami A. Parthasarathy Those that have devotion towards Me will get knowledge and renunciation and they will attain liberation from the round of births and deaths. — Sri Rama The devotees of God become ecstatic even with a little of a single Divine attribute. No one can contain within him the realisation of all His glories and excellences. — Sri Ramakrishna If you want to be perfect, go and sell what you have, give to the poor and come and follow me. And you will have treasure in Heaven. — Jesus Christ  |
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