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Growth slows down Comrades apart Young mothers |
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Who is afraid of F-16s?
Building bridges
Missile shield for India From Pakistan
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Growth slows down Rosy growth projections of the NDA government and now of the UPA’s notwithstanding, India today faces a slowdown as acknowledged by Dr Manmohan Singh during a mid-term Plan appraisal on Tuesday. Quite a hype was created about India heading for an 8.1 per cent growth when the 10th Plan was launched during the NDA regime. In the first three years of the 10th Plan, India could achieve only an average of 6.4 per cent growth. The slowdown is attributed to agriculture, which is set to witness a dismal 1.1 per cent growth only. Over the years government policies have focussed more on making credit available to the farmer than on reducing agriculture’s dependence on the monsoon. What holds back India is widely known. Infrastructure is inadequate. Roads, power and communications in rural India are either inadequate or non-existent. Development of agro-based industries is limited. The manufacturing sector badly needs technological upgradation. On the one hand, there is growth of the jobless, on the other not enough skilled manpower is available for fast-growing sectors like IT, BPO, civil aviation, telecom and insurance. Textiles and tourism hold tremendous job potential and need attention on priority. All this requires huge investment, but red tape, poor infrastructure and outdated labour laws discourage foreign investment. Coalition politics has put limits on Dr Manmohan Singh. Still he keeps testing the limits. On Tuesday, he questioned the way Plans were made. He raised a significant issue: is it essential to wait for five years to “re-engage” in planning effort or should it be done annually for certain areas and on a longer basis for others? In a globalised world, which witnesses fast-changing consumer demand patterns, production methods and technological advancements, it no longer makes sense to formulate plans for five years. Besides, many areas for which the Centre makes plans are state subjects: agriculture, irrigation, education and health. The states, barring a few, are not half enthusiastic about reforms. Obviously, many hard decisions are required at the national level, possibly with political consensus. This unfortunately is missing as is clear from differences on VAT. |
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Comrades apart The recently concluded 19th party congress of the CPI, predictably enough, did not throw up any surprises, be it with reference to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or the CPM and other left parties. There was “constructive criticism” of the UPA with emphasis on its opposition to specific measures, such as the Patents Bill, but no murmur of the party diluting its support in anyway to the government of Mr Manmohan Singh. In the matter of ties with fraternal forces, there were calls for Left unity, references to merger and criticism of the CPM for its continued refusal to acknowledge the mistakes that led to the 1964 split. On the issue of the CPI’s position vis-à-vis the UPA Government, the Left is in the unenviable trap of supporting the coalition but opposing some of its policies. Hence, the party is constrained to keep making it known that its support cannot be taken for granted. Arising from this need to set itself apart is the compulsion to sustain the critical perception of the UPA’s policies, especially in the eyes of the cadres. On balance, it is clear that the CPI, like the CPM, despite expressions of displeasure, is unlikely to resort to any extreme action such as withdrawal of support to the UPA and help the BJP in the process. When it comes to Left unity, the divisions between comrades of various hues — in their own eyes — appear to be much deeper than visible to observers outside. There are hardly any ideological differences between the CPI and the CPM as the situation stands today. Yet, they are caught in a time-warp from which they are reluctant to free themselves. If they can come as close as they have today, then unity followed by merger is a logical progression in step with the times. |
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Young mothers The World Health Organisation (WHO) has rightly selected “Make every mother and child count” as this year’s theme for World Health Day, being observed today. Millions of mothers and children are dying every year in pregnancy, childbirth and early childhood. Even more are suffering from ill-health and malnutrition. The latest WHO report rightly says that the survival and well-being of mothers and children are not only important in their own right but also central to solving broader economic, social and developmental challenges. It examines the problem of young mothers and stresses the societal need to take care of both the mother and the child so that the world’s future becomes healthier. It says that the problem of young mothers is endemic in low and middle income countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Within these countries, it is the poor and the disadvantaged who suffer the most. In India, while more than 10 per cent of young girls are mothers already, the health of both the mother and the child is at a high risk. According to the National Family Health Survey, girls below 18 years get married and have the first baby by 19. Most women die because they are too young to take care of their children. Repeated pregnancies for the sake of a son also cost them their lives. The WHO says, every year one million young children die as a result of the death of their mothers. As this problem is mostly prevalent among poor families, the governments at the Centre and in the states, NGOs, community-based groups, professional societies and organisations like WHO should convince these families about the ill-effects of early marriage. Education of the girl child is very important as it would not only make her aware of the problem but also hold the key to empowerment, self-reliance and independent decision-making. There is need for a mass movement against early marriages and improving the health care of both the mother and the child. A movement of this nature will have to stimulate collective responsibility and action for better access to basic health services so that the world is free from disease and death. |
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Nature is often hidden, sometimes overcome, seldom extinguished. — Francis Bacon
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Who is afraid of F-16s?
The efficacy and lethality of F-16 aircraft seem to have assumed larger than life and even mythical dimensions in public thinking both in India and Pakistan. To put matters in perspective, it needs to be pointed out that there are some 4000 F-16 aircraft deployed by the United States and its partners across the world, with roughly half of these deployed by the USAF. The F-16 is regarded as highly potent primarily because it has been used by the Americans and Israelis against their adversaries who are far weaker and lack modern day early warning systems and effective air defence and electronic warfare capabilities. There was naturally concern in India when the Reagan Administration announced in 1981 that it would be supplying 40 F-16s to Pakistan in order to enhance Pakistani capabilities and “confidence”, following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Our concern then was understandable. Neither did we have any comparable aircraft, nor was the Soviet Union then in a position to supply us an aircraft with matching capabilities. In these circumstances Indira Gandhi decided to acquire 40 Mirage 2000 aircraft from France. These aircraft were seen as being comparable in some ways to the F-16. But before the end of the decade the IAF was in a position to meet any challenge posed by the F-16s with the acquisition of MIG-29 interceptors from the Soviet Union. When the Cold War ended, Pakistan was denied virtually all access to American weapons. Even signed contracts for additional F-16s were rescinded. In the meantime, we made drastic and unwise cuts in our defence expenditure and discovered around 1996 that it was imperative to modernise our Air Force in the wake of rising tensions following Pakistan’s resort to jihad in Jammu and Kashmir. The result was our decision to go in for the highly sophisticated Russian built SU-30 MKI aircraft, whose performance was enhanced by French, Israeli and Indian inputs. Most observers agree that the Russian built SU-30 MKIs are superior to the SU-30 MKs supplied to China by Russia. (Despite all the revived talk of “Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai,” peace with China as sovereign equals is best guaranteed when we are well prepared militarily.) India also decided to acquire early warning Phalcon systems from Israel that are being mounted on Russian aircraft manufactured in Uzbekistan. Pakistan, in the meantime, concluded a deal with China, under which it is to acquire 100-120 JF-17 “Thunder” fighters to replace its ageing Chinese built F-7s. India, in turn, had scheduled modernisation of Its Air Force by replacing obsolete MIG-21 aircraft and outdated MIG-23s with new multi-role strike aircraft. Among the companies approached for making offers for this requirement were the manufacturers of the F-16s and F-18s in the US, the Mirage-2000 in France and advanced MIG-29s in Russia. Even before the Americans made their offer of F-16s formally to Pakistan we had entered the world market and sought bids from manufacturers in the US for 126 modern fighter aircraft. It is thus ridiculous to talk of the Americans promoting an “arms race” in the subcontinent, as they have merely responded to inquiries from us for the supply of high performance fighter aircraft. Senior Bush Administration officials have, in fact, made it clear that for the first time since India’s Independence they are looking forward to a relationship with India which would involve “defence transformation”, including “transformative systems” in areas such as command and control, early warning and missile defence systems. Quite predictably, India’s Communist Parties evidently believe that Indian security is best guaranteed by mouthing the slogans of Lenin and the thoughts of Mao, that have been universally discredited and discarded, rather than by acquiring modern defence systems for our armed forces. Both Communist Parties have maintained a deafening silence over the supply of over 100 JF-17 aircraft by China to Pakistan and raised much hue and cry over India keeping its options open to get the internationally best available weapons systems for our armed forces, at the most competitive prices. American entry into the list of potential suppliers of modern defence equipment will give us far greater bargaining ability to see that our armed forces are properly equipped in a manner that is best affordable. This effort should be integrated with efforts we make to expeditiously develop capabilities to produce our own world class light combat aircraft. The American decision to respond positively to India’s inquiries for the supply of defence equipment has been followed by an agreement to expedite cooperation in the transfer of high technology and in the areas of space and nuclear technology. But the most significant development has been the US decision to consider cooperation with India in the development of nuclear energy. Cooperation in nuclear energy between the US and India is important for three reasons. Firstly, India’s demands for energy supplies are growing rapidly. Secondly, the United States and its G-8 partners cannot expect us to take measures to curb global warming and environmental pollution if they deny us environmentally clean nuclear power, even as they extend EXIM Bank credits amounting to $5 billion to China to construct nuclear power plants. Finally, doubts about the reliability of the Americans as suppliers of strategic items ranging from nuclear fuel to fighter aircraft will remain because of past American actions under which they unilaterally terminated an agreement to supply nuclear fuel for the Tarapur Nuclear Power Plant till 1993 through domestic legislation enacted in 1978. Adding to the concerns about defence supplies from the US are the sanctions the US imposed on spares for defence equipment that India had purchased from the UK following our nuclear tests in 1998. There is also a tendency on the part of the US Congress to resort to sanctions on the flimsiest of pretexts. A process to end such misgivings could commence when the United States ends its existing sanctions against the supply of nuclear fuel and nuclear power reactors to India. India has to learn how to use its growing market to extract political trade-offs and technology transfers from the western world. The Chinese, for example, use their purchasing power for American products, ranging from Boeing Aircraft to wheat, to influence Washington’s political approach to the Middle Kingdom. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would be well advised to learn a few tricks of the trade on this score from Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao during the latter’s forthcoming visit to India. |
Building bridges
MAHARSHI Valmiki was perspicuous enough to mention in the Ramayana the little role a squirrel played in building the bridge across the straits that allowed Lord Ram to reach Lanka and recover Sita. As the story goes, a tiny squirrel would roll over the sand of sea shore and then go over the bridge of stones Hanuman and his compatriots were building. There he would release the particles of sand in the name of Ram. The mammal got the stripes on its body when Ram fondled it, touched as he was by its devotion. But this is the story of another squirrel helping build a bridge of friendship between India and Pakistan. In November last I was one of the lucky Indian journalists allowed to visit “Pakistan Occupied Kashmir” which Pakistan calls “Azad Jammu Kashmir”. For many of us, it was a dream come true to visit Mirpur, Muzaffarabad, Chakothi and Gilgit, about which we had only heard or read. Wherever we went, we were enthusiastically received by the local people, who literally showered rose petals on us. They were so considerate to our sentiments that they even refrained from using terminology they thought would offend us. They seemed to be keener on the bus service than the people on this side of the Line of Control. However, an ugly exhibit in Muzaffarabad stood like a sore thumb. It was a huge model of a missile, strategically placed on the Muzaffarabad-Srinagar road, which was once called the Jhelum Valley Road. The missile pointed towards Srinagar. I could not fathom why the monstrous object was put up there. From its worn-out look, it was obvious that it had been there for quite some time. Only a mad person could have thought of erecting it. Any reconnaissance aircraft or spy satellite could have easily detected that the missile was made of cheap tin sheets and it could not harm even an ant. I wondered why the AJK government had not thought of removing the fake missile before we arrived. Later that evening I got an opportunity to discuss the matter with the President of AJK, a retired military officer, who could rattle off the names of all the generals who became statesmen like Dwight Eisenhover and Charles de Gaulle, when he gave us a dinner. Perhaps, he fancied himself as one such general! First, he tried to laugh it off. But when I persisted with my query during a one-on-one meeting whether he did not find it distasteful to keep the missile pointed towards Srinagar, he said it was there even before he became President. At that point, I had to ask him how this improved India-Pakistan relations. For once, he found himself cornered on the issue. The President promised me that he would immediately have the missile removed. But it remained there till we left the place for Gilgit. I have no clue whether he has honoured his word subsequent to our visit. The passengers from India who would be reaching Muzaffarabad by the first Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus tomorrow would be able to answer that question. In case they are greeted by an ugly model of a missile as they enter the town where two mighty rivers merge, they would know whom to blame for it.
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Missile shield for India Before any decision on a weapon system such as Patriot is gone into, it would be advisable to understand the threat scenario and its imminence. Today we in India, have a credible nuclear potential. With the near parity that exists between India and Pakistan in the nuclear field, a nuclear deterrence is automatically in place, threats of first use by Pakistan notwithstanding. Both nations have also seen the futility of a limited or full scale conventional war to resolve major issues like Kashmir. For the present, there is no emergency issue with the Chinese, which can lead to a serious conflict. Under these circumstances though a conventional war converting into a nuclear conflict cannot be outrightly ruled out, its possibility of happening, as of now, is quite low. In the context of India and Pakistan, an ugly stability will continue to persist in the foreseeable future with emphasis on anti-terrorist operations by the Indian armed forces. This analysis is relevant because an army, which is perpetually short of funds for upgradation of weapons and technology and which had to “make do with whatever is available” in a crisis situation, right emphasis must be maintained in the procurement of a weapon system and upgradation of technology. The likely confrontation pattern in the foreseeable future dictates that the weapon systems, equipment and technology should be to take care of our requirements in this order: (a) anti infiltration and anti terrorist operations, (b) creation of lean and mean conventional forces capable of a cold start, and (c) ability to deter, deflect or observe strike by WMDs. The recent years have seen the upgradation of the weapons system protecting our air space under the Air Force or the Director General of Air Defence. The array of air defence weapons now includes air defence aircraft, anti aircraft missile system, self-propelled short range air defence weapon systems and radar control air defence guns. Now the DRDO is also coming up with the Akash series of missiles to replace the Russian inventory. None of these weapons, however, are capable of providing effective defence against Cruise or ballistic missiles carrying WMDs or other lethal war heads. In the US-Iraq confrontation, after Iraq’s annexation of Kuwait, the Patriot missile system was deployed by the US forces to provide defence to critical assets and manoeuvre forces at the corps level and above against aircraft, Cruise missile and tactical ballistic missiles. Even though the views on their effectiveness are divided, the Patriot became the first anti-missile defence system to be tested under battle conditions. Now other countries like Russia and Israel are also having such weapon systems in their arsenal and are offering the same to their friendly countries. Earlier in our exuberance to get the weapon systems, we landed up with what indeed was not required or was poor in capability or quality and was not in consonance with our tactical doctrines or could not be integrated with our existing weapon system and technology. Additionally the missiles procured lose their credibility and accuracy due to lack of a controlled temperature storage facility and their use after shelf life exceeding the prescribed limits. The role of the DRDO in this context is also necessary to be analysed. It is to the credit of the DRDO that its missile development programme has made some progress but is is equally true that the organisation has not been able to generate the required level of confidence within the armed forces. There have been perpetual delays in programmes and the development of weapon system/technology, including the Akash series. Delays in the development of even the basic 5.56 mm family of weapon system have forced us to purchase similar weapons off the shelf from other countries. The delay in development of Arjun Tank made the purchase of T-90 tanks from Russia a necessity. Though DRDO plans to develop a missile shield under the Akash series, it would be better that the DRDO gets a better threshold for the development of such a weapon system by initially importing such missiles Another important aspect that needs to be kept in view while deciding on the acquisition is the time-frame required for the creation of infrastructure for housing the weapon system and manpower, creation of training facilities and storage capability for the ammunition. Since now we can pay in US dollars and choose the manufacturer we should go over the available weapon systems by relating them to our requirements of terrain, the task envisaged and integration with the other air defence systems. We should not negotiate for the Patriot Advance Capability (PAC) 2 system which is on its way out, but should be negotiating for PAC-3, which is the weapon system of future. The acquisition timing should be such that it should not upset our planned priorities regarding the acquisition of other weapon systems and technology based on our threat assessment. We should also be clear in mind that the infrastructure required for housing and manning such a system is up in place in synchronisation with the procurement of the weapon system. |
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From
Pakistan QUETTA: Baloch nationalist leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti has vowed to continue his struggle for the rights of B aloch people and said that nobody could stop him from playing this role. Talking to newsmen over the telephone from his native “Nobody can restrict any person from his politics or daily life. There is no law in Pakistan for imposing such restrictions. Everybody has the right to go anywhere he likes,” Nawab Bugti said. Referring to the speech of President Gen Pervez Musharraf in Kalat in which he advised the Sardars to restrict themselves to their constituency, Mr Bugti said that General Sahib should also honour the desire of the people and restrict himself to General Headquarters (GHQ). He said that people of the country were not with him and it was their desire to restrict Gen Pervez Musharraf to GHQ. He said that he had not claimed himself to be the elected or selected leader of Balochistan but if the people paid heed to his advice then he could not stop them from doing so. — The Dawn Mangla dam row
aggravates
ISLAMABAD: The differences between the provinces and WAPDA over the Mangla Dam level during raising work have further aggravated with the federal government directing the IRSA to appoint its representatives to monitor the situation on a weekly basis. “Besides issuing directives, the Federal Minister for Water and Power is shortly convening a meeting of the provincial representatives, IRSA members, WAPDA authorities and other concerned officials at the Mangla Dam site to take up the differences,” sources in the Ministry of Water and Power said. One of the IRSA members will use to visit the Mangla Dam once a week to submit the report as differences between the provinces and WAPDA are still unresolved while continuing construction work under upraising of the dam by 30 feet. At present the IRSA and the provinces want to store water in the Mangla Dam with the maximum limit whereas the WAPDA wants to carry out the construction work by lowering down its level up to a certain limit. —
The Nation
A fun-filled fund-raiser
ISLAMABAD: Coffee mornings are organised by a number of NGOs to raise funds for their ongoing projects, but Mashal, an NGO that has been around for some time, usually organises musical evenings. This makes a change from the morning affairs and allows husbands and oth ’er male members of the family to participate in the fun and games. This is a good thing because it not only gives the men a chance to contribute to the work their better halves are doing but provides entertainment the family can enjoy together. One such function was held on the lawns at the residence of Mashal member Mahgul Quereshi, where a rge tent protect attendees from the weather. The first item was a Kathak dance by a young lady, Miriam, who delighted with her graceful movements and shy demeanour. After her came amateur singer, Khalida Mazhar, who sang a mixture of lively and romantic songs. But the liveliest performance was an impromptu one by a visitor from Lahore, who sang and danced and persuaded the young and the young at heart members to join in as well. She will long be remembered for adding her exuberant act to this prim and proper evening! —
The News
Pak textile sector
in ‘bronze age’
RAWALPINDI: Speakers at a seminar on the World Trade Organisations (WTO) focused mainly on the present status of the textile industry in Pakistan analysing its strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to compete international market. They also laid special emphasis on agreements on textile and clothing. While addressing the seminar, former bureaucrat, famous policymaker and WTO expert Masood Ahmed Dar said textile and clothing sector was in the bronze age in Pakistan, if not in the iron age. No doubt, Pakistan has some internationally reputed textile mills but their number is too small to meet the WTO challenges. In Pakistan the textile and clothing industry growth rate is 1 per cent per year while it is 8 to 12 per cent in Indi and 9 to 16 per cent in China. Pakistan also lacks trendy textile technologies being practiced in advanced countries, he added. —
The News
Baglihar arbitrator's
appointment
Islamabad: Pakistan has once again approached the World Bank for the appointment of a neutral expert at the earliest, to resolve the Baglihar Dam issue. Pakistan has rejected the Indian offer to solve the impasse through bilateral talks and reminded the World Bank about the clause relating to the one-month period within which the body has to appoint an expert following the lodging of a formal protest. Pakistan has reportedly asked the World Bank to expedite the appointment of a neutral expert as despite all protests and the request for the appointment of a neutral expert, India was still continuing work on the Baglihar project. Pakistan has from the very beginning said that the Baglihar project on River Chenab was in violation of the Indus Water Treaty 1960 and upon completion would deprive Pakistan of as much of seven-eight thousand cusecs of water per day, in the process adversely affecting wheat production in Pakistan's Punjab province. |
The man goes to ruin, who is ignorant and without faith and always doubting. Not this world, nor happiness is for the doubting soul. — Sri Krishna In the beginning was the divinity in His splendour, manifested as the God of creation. He upheld this earth and the heavens. — The Vedas Those who take shelter under Me in this world, meditating on Me and repeating the Mantra of My sacred name, will surely get My vision, even unasked, as I know they have no other refuge. — Sri Rama Rejoice and be exceedingly glad: for great is your reward in heaven: for so persecuted they the prophets which were before you. — Jesus Christ  |
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With India and Pakistan having joined the exclusive nuclear club and the attendant military technology upgrade, it is abundantly clear that any future conventional conflict with both traditional Indian adversaries — China and Pakistan — has the potential of upgradation to confrontation wherein the use of missiles is likely for delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), be they nuclear or non-nuclear. Protection of the air space has thus assumed a level of importance, which is unprecedented.