Friday, October 4, 2002, Chandigarh, India





National Capital Region--Delhi

THE TRIBUNE SPECIALS
50 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

TERCENTENARY CELEBRATIONS
E D I T O R I A L   P A G E


EDITORIALS

Questions over disinvestment
T
HE reservations being expressed over the NDA government’s disinvestment policy are not without basis. Since the very beginning various enlightened sections have been raising objections over the manner in which the government has been selling off public sector undertakings. Hardly any factor concerning the sensitive exercise has been taken care of properly. 

Beyond the paddy crisis
T
HE multi-party meeting held on the paddy crisis in Chandigarh on Wednesday succeeded in extracting from the Punjab Government a Rs 30 per quintal bonus on paddy sold last year. Although Capt Amarinder Singh has only redeemed his pre-poll promise and achieved moral justification to press the Centre for a higher bonus this year, he has given the agitating farmers the message that blocking road or/and rail traffic does ultimately yield results.

FRANKLY SPEAKING
HARI JAISINGH
Punjab’s unfinished economic agenda
CM caught in a web of competitive politics
T
HE economic woes of Punjab look unending. Industry is sluggish. The small-scale sector is sick. The power situation is as slippery as before. The state is in dire straits financially. Debts are mounting. The debt burden stands at a staggering Rs 3,494.62 crore.

 

EARLIER ARTICLES

Bullet losing against ballot
October 3, 2002
A national tragedy
October 2, 2002
Web of terrorism
October 1, 2002
IPS officer in police net
September 30, 2002
Wages of Modi govt’s apathy towards intelligence
September 29, 2002
Paddy politics & economics
September 28, 2002
Questionable response system
September 27, 2002
Behind voters’ enthusiasm
September 26, 2002
Why delay paddy MSP?
September 25, 2002
The Arafat factor
September 24, 2002
The Abu Salem challenge
September 23, 2002
Can we destroy the web of corruption in our polity?
September 22, 2002
Desperate strike
September 21, 2002
 
MIDDLE

Cricket commentators and cricketese
Darshan Singh Maini
T
EST Cricket Junoon in countries like India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka has almost made the game a theatre of war when national pride and passion cause huge dislocations of the corporate psyche. When the TV superseded the radio, as a medium (a “cool” medium that sucks you in, as Marshall Macluhan calls it) assaulting the nerves in moments of crises, the entire ethos, if not the lexicon or the cricketese changed the very character of the game.

COMMENTARY

Monkey and the cats: our world today
M. S. N. Menon
D
O we want a hegemon — a Leviathan — over us? No one will say “yes” to that. And yet by giving America arbitrary power and making it a hegemon, the world is creating a great tragedy.

Drought dries up Australia’s economic smile
Ben Sandilands
U
NTIL a few weeks ago the Australian economy was seemingly unassailable as the best performing in the western world. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was increasing at around 4 per cent a year, in contrast to the sluggish growth or even stagnation of North America, Europe, Singapore, Japan and Korea.

TRENDS & POINTERS

Love means sharing same diseases
M
ARRIED couples, share more than their homes, cars and finances — they are also likely to have some of the same diseases, experts say. If a spouse suffers from asthma, depression, peptic ulcers, high blood pressure or raised cholesterol levels, the chances are their partner will be afflicted with the same illness.

  • Couples get mental boost from marriage

SPIRITUAL NUGGETS

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Questions over disinvestment

THE reservations being expressed over the NDA government’s disinvestment policy are not without basis. Since the very beginning various enlightened sections have been raising objections over the manner in which the government has been selling off public sector undertakings. Hardly any factor concerning the sensitive exercise has been taken care of properly. Where was transparency in the deals struck off for disposing of PSUs? These are our national assets. Is it proper to dispose of the national assets in a controversial manner? The nation has every right to know what happens behind the scene before transferring the management of a PSU to a private party. Then there are questions of proper evaluation of the assets of a PSU on sale and the protection of the employees’ genuine interests. Serious doubts have been raised about this aspect also whenever the government has dissociated itself from any PSU. The most significant questions were raised after Defence Minister George Fernandes opposed the sale of two oil PSUs — Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited. Should the government not spare the PSUs of strategic significance to the nation? Should the government sell off its stake in every PSU as a matter of principle? Will this be in the overall national interest? The division in the Union Council of Ministers has sharpened with Wednesday’s declaration of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee that he is all for continuing with the disinvestment policy. He has rejected the argument that disinvestment has been leading to increased joblessness and a climate of distress sale of PSUs. But he has not stated it categorically that he stands by the controversial policy as it has been pursued so far. He has upheld the right to express dissent and seek a thorough review. The latter part of his statement makes one believe that the Prime Minister is not against a fresh debate on the policy covering all its aspects and the questions raised.

Mr Fernandes, who was the first Union Minister to muster courage to question the proposed sale of two oil PSUs, today has in his company Human Resource Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi and Oil and Natural Gas Minister Ram Naik. Most significantly, the Sangh Parivar too has given support to the dissenters’ viewpoint. Logic says that profit-making PSUs, including the Navaratnas, and those in the areas of critical importance, should not be touched, at least at this stage. The argument that doing business is not the job of the government in the era of privatisation seems good on the face of it. But it cannot be held valid in the case of India, which has had a mixed economy with the public sector in the commanding position till 1991. India, basically a poor country, cannot afford to blindly implement every capitalist concept. However, a review of the disinvestment programme should not adversely affect the economic reforms process. One hopes the Vajpayee government will try to evolve a national consensus on the crucial issue. Playing politics, whether by the government or the Opposition, will harm the country’s interests considerably.

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Beyond the paddy crisis

THE multi-party meeting held on the paddy crisis in Chandigarh on Wednesday succeeded in extracting from the Punjab Government a Rs 30 per quintal bonus on paddy sold last year. Although Capt Amarinder Singh has only redeemed his pre-poll promise and achieved moral justification to press the Centre for a higher bonus this year, he has given the agitating farmers the message that blocking road or/and rail traffic does ultimately yield results. The advocates of the agitational path will get a further boost as the Chief Minister himself has planned a “Delhi chalo” protest march and asked farmers to shift their agitation to the national Capital. Instead of acting under pressure, why do the ruling parties, whether at the Centre or in the states, not listen sympathetically to the aggrieved sections and take reasonable decisions without giving them an opportunity to go on strike. The impression has gone round that unless you adopt the agitational path, government machinery does not respond. By playing politics for petty ends, the political decision makers do a lot of avoidable harm. Does anyone well aware of the ground realities really believe that the Centre would agree to increase the paddy minimum support price to Rs 776 a quintal? Making unreasonable demands and protesting for their acceptance may yield political gain, but at what cost? The need is to be practical and respond to problems rationally. One ground reality is that official agencies are not buying paddy even at the already announced MSP of Rs 560 at Khanna as a report in The Tribune pointed out on Thursday. It is desirable to depoliticise the paddy issue. The proposed Assembly session should hold an informed debate on the paddy issue in the context of the larger crisis in agriculture in Punjab today. Any unreasonable hike in the MSP has a ripple effect. The foodgrains go beyond the reach of the poor and their export also becomes unviable. The legislators should also debate the question: what will you do with the mounting foodgrain stocks that no one can buy? The farmers have displayed more common sense than politicians by demanding the rollback of the hike in the prices of pesticides and fertilisers. The inefficiencies of fertiliser and pesticide units should not be passed on to the consumers.

The problem of the Punjab farmer is that he is still viewed by the outside world as prosperous whereas the reality is that an average farmer is under heavy debt. He is relying more on costly machinery and migrant labour. The so-called prosperity of the Punjabis is under serious threat as the state’s growth rate has slumped to 4.11 per cent in the post-reform period, which is much below the national average of 6 to 6.5 per cent. The reason for this, according to Dr Satish C Jha, a former Director of the Asian Development Bank, is the decline in the public sector investment in agriculture from about Rs 2,000 crore annually to Rs 1,000 crore and the failure of state machinery to rise to the challenges of liberalisation. That exposes the real functioning of the “farmer-friendly” governments that have run the state in this period. It is still not too late to reverse the downhill trend. Since legislators are known for generating more heat than light, it is better to invite experts of repute to formulate a save-agriculture plan and a long-term development strategy. Otherwise, the state government will keep moving from tackling one crisis after another and discontent will only multiply.

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FRANKLY SPEAKING

Punjab’s unfinished economic agenda
CM caught in a web of competitive politics
HARI JAISINGH

THE economic woes of Punjab look unending. Industry is sluggish. The small-scale sector is sick. The power situation is as slippery as before. The state is in dire straits financially. Debts are mounting. The debt burden stands at a staggering Rs 3,494.62 crore. It works out to be 42.77 per cent of the state's GDP. There is not much to show on the credit side. The much-trumpeted investment from overseas remains illusory so far.

A big gap exists between promise and performance. Farmers are restive. They are a disgruntled lot since they feel badly let down by the once-a-year snake charmers of minimum support price (MSP). The much-needed diversification of crops is nowhere in sight. Everything is caught in a web of politics. Every politician loves to fish in troubled waters to hurt his rivals.

The Akalis have suddenly become over-active. They play the NDA alliance card at the Centre to their advantage. It was very much visible on Monday in New Delhi with Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee acting a Bhishma Pitamaha of the Mahabharata fame.

Nothing moves without politics, even the question of MSP and the farmers' plight. Indeed, India's is a free market for free-for-all politics of poverty and development!

And in this game, Capt Amarinder Singh looks amateurish. He prefers to look up to his patrons in the party high command — Ms Sonia Gandhi plus — rather than the country's doubly-blessed official mai-baap at the Centre.

Poor Chief Minister! He seems to be fighting on several fronts—internally with the "in-house group" led by her Cabinet colleague Rajinder Kaur Bhattal. The other day he overdramatised his action by his dharna outside the Prime Minister's residence with a view to "killing" two birds with one stone—former Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and his "comrade-in-arm" Bhattal.

This dharna, in a way, could be seen as the bravest act ever by the Chief Minister in his chequered political career. This is what his admirers and aides think. But what is forgotten is that the politics of dharna does not befit his image of sobriety. Even then the propriety or otherwise of such acts of Capt Amarinder Singh as Chief Minister is debatable.

He does not have to be a poor carbon copy of the former Chief Minister. Nor does he have to be obsessed with his Cabinet colleague whose personal ambition is an open secret.

A sophisticated person need not behave like a madari (juggler) and, wittingly or unwittingly, distort his public image in today's highly unethical and competitive politics. Capt Amarinder Singh's problem is his poor communication not only with his own party MLAs and MPs but also with other political leaders, including his alliance partner, the CPI. The all-party meeting fiasco on MSP, etc, is a pointer. Still, it must be said to his credit the way he was able to outmanoeuvre the CPI in Chandigarh on Wednesday. However, the harsh fact is that with his present set of confidants and advisers, he does not need enemies!

The Chief Minister's strength is his promise of performance. There is a general belief among the people that he understands the state's problems and can take things forward in a dynamic way and start a new chapter in Punjab's development. He has the reputation as a well-meaning, sincere person. But the real test of a leader lies in his ability to translate his promises into action. Here, time is of the essence.

The Chief Minister may be absolutely right in complaining about the messy legacy of financial bankruptcy left behind by the Badal government. He deserves sympathy on this count. But he cannot sustain the people's support by repeatedly hammering at this point without showing some concrete action.

Some harsh economic facts, meanwhile, provide sufficient clues to the state of affairs.

One, the State Planning Board was constituted in April, 2002. But not a single meeting has taken place so far.

Two, the State Electricity Regulatory Authority report was submitted on September 6, 2002. But no follow-up action has been initiated.

Three, the Punjab Disinvestment Commission report remains unattended to.

Four, reports on the Chief Minister's Advisory Committees on Industry and Agriculture still await official response.

Five, the Advisory Committee on the fiscal report has yet to show results.

It is true that the revenue collection in certain areas like sales tax and excise has looked up, but the overall picture is gloomy.

The revenue deficit has increased considerably. The gross fiscal deficit went up by 160 per cent during the period from 1996-97 to 2001-01.

What is dismaying is that the salary bill and the administrative costs go on rising, which means the size of the government continues to be unwieldy.

With inadequate revenue receipts, the government's borrowings have been mounting from Rs 15,249.55 crore during the period from 1996-97 to 2000-01. It will, therefore, not be unfair to say that the fiscal anarchy unleashed by the SAD-BJP government is responsible for most of Punjab's ills today.

The moot point is: will Capt Amarinder Singh be able to come out of the vicious circle of financial-administrative mismanagement? Looking at the measures proposed, the latest Punjab Budget has been hailed as a role model. But the model has to come alive and show results.

The people want solid action on the agriculture front as also for the agro-based industry and marketing. In the absence of action, the Congress has already begun to yield ground to the Akalis.

Everything is topsy-turvy. Even the crucial youth policy is nowhere is sight. Besides, there are alarming signals of rising unemployment and drug menace. Today, the number of the unemployed youth is put at over 8 lakh.

Where do we go from here? The answer must come from the Chief Minister and his government before it is too late.

At one stage I felt that Capt Amarinder Singh was ready with his development blueprint well before the last elections. He also managed to project himself as a new "Mr Clean". He started off well. Interestingly, he bumped into the PPSC scam which he exploited well politically.

The Chief Minister's problem is that some of his advisers are men of straw. They cannot even be accused of being clean! What can Capt Amarinder Singh do under the circumstances?

As it is, he has virtually become a prisoner of the coterie around him! One does not know whether he will be able to fulfil his original promise of fighting corruption without punishing those who are either small fries or innocent or are not prime sinners in the PPSC or other scams. My heart goes out to those young persons who are not a party to the money-for-job scam.

I expect the administrative and judicial system to be fair, transparent and accountable. It is the duty of the persons at the helm to ensure that no innocent person is punished, howsoever cumbersome the exercise of drawing a line between the "guilty" and "not-guilty". This is where one feels disturbed. Any exercise in cover-up does no credit to the Chief Minister's image.

In any case, the PPSC issue has now taken a backseat. In the weeks ahead, Punjab is likely to become yet another arena for socio-political unrest and fierce competitive political battles. This will be very unfortunate.

Economics and politics should never get mixed. Regrettably, a number of unknown factors are at play all the while in Punjab. It is really a testing time for Capt Amarinder Singh's government. The best course for him is that instead of indulging in competitive politics, he should get down to the business of putting the state's economic house in order—from agriculture to industry and development of infrastructure, power included.

Punjab has no dearth of resources, both human and monetary. There is no need to look overseas for investment without caring to utilise domestic resources and by effecting economy by cutting down wasteful expenses.

My simple question is: has this been done? The answer will be: a firm "no". A close look at the balancesheet of last few months will show how unproductive expenses have remained unchecked.

Punjab needs a new deal. Its rulers must go the whole hog to fulfil their promises. Take the case of setting up an NIT. Union Human Resource Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi is willing to fund the project. But everything is caught in petty calculations of admission control to the disadvantage of the Punjab youth.

When the HRD Minister announced a special scheme to upgrade Regional Engineering Colleges to National Institutes of Technology (NITs), the Regional Engineering College at Jalandhar was on the list. The Tribune ran a special story (July 20) on this offer getting lost in redtapism in Punjab while both Haryana and Himachal Pradesh have taken full advantage of the scheme.

Little has so far been done to benefit from this special scheme which, besides relieving the cash-starved Punjab Government of a huge financial burden, would have helped the youth of the state in getting quality education in new emerging technologies. Why an exhibition of this petty mindset by the powers that be? Over to Capt Amarinder Singh.

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Cricket commentators and cricketese
Darshan Singh Maini

TEST Cricket Junoon in countries like India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka has almost made the game a theatre of war when national pride and passion cause huge dislocations of the corporate psyche. When the TV superseded the radio, as a medium (a “cool” medium that sucks you in, as Marshall Macluhan calls it) assaulting the nerves in moments of crises, the entire ethos, if not the lexicon or the cricketese changed the very character of the game. The one-dayers and the Tests developed their own idiom, and today one could write a primer of such comments ranging from the funny and the amusing to the nearly-erotic and suggestive.

In the days of the radio commentaries of Tests, I recall how we would see people slipping out of their job-desks to hear the latest score etc. Those were the days of the fabulous “Vizzy” and his rip-roaring remarks. One of his favourite comments on a set and free-scoring batsman was that he has seeing the cricket red “missile” as “a football”.

He and his like treated cricket as an aristocratic sport, and revelled in sparking “Champagne” phrases. Vizzy, in particular, laced his commentaries with amusing little “stories”. One that I recall pertains to the plight of a young lady affianced to a great cricket bowler, but wholly innocent of the game, or if its language. So, when tuned into a Test-commentary where she could make little of the text-book cricketese — “silly point”, “googly or chinaman”, “off-spin”, “inswinger”, “sixer”, “yorker” and other catch-penny phrases — she heard Vizzy say that such and such (our lady’s beau) had boiled two “maiden” overs, she pronounced him a philanderer and couldn’t be pacified till the truth dawned upon her.

But back to the present day TV commentaries. Right now, I’m concerned with the great former stars wisecracking and adding their own brand of juicy phrases during the recent one-dayers and Test-series between India and England. Nearly all these worthies have their own concoction to serve, and one at once recognises the idiom and the author. The official team of Harsha Bhogle and Alan Wilkins with other changing “gods” like Geofrey Boycott, Sunil Gavaskar, Navjot Singh Sidhu, Ravi Shastri and “guest” commentators do make a formidable machine from which picturesque phrases flow out like coloured paper rolls from a magician’s mouth. Since Sidhu is today’s “piece-de-resistance” with high ESPN ratings, I intend to take him up — or really on — when I’ve disposed of his gallant “compeers.”

While Bhogle and Gavaskar are matchless where old obscure statistics are concerned, Ravi Shastri remains circumspect and economical. There’s little flamboyance about him, or flourish. On the other hand, his Bombay-mate, Gavaskar, has an eye for harmless “mischief”, a certain playfulness in addition to erudition and a prodigious memory. As for that knighted celebrity, Sir Geofrey Boycott, with his white straw hat and a swanky coloured shirt, he’s unstoppable when riding his hobby-horse. An express fast train, he serves his Yorkshire “puddings” with his own cheese-crackers. A mischievous twinkle in the eye of the jolly knight, he’s an English gentleman to the core, fair and unbiased in his comments, on the whole.

Walk in Navjot Sidhu with his colourful Patiala-Shahi pleated turban, suit and matching tie, and once in possession of the mike, he assumes the role of an entertaining reconteur, word-spinner and “philosophical joker”. In a moment he can turn from a Sweet-warbler into a wood-packer, or into a mocking bird. He unloads in rapid AK-47 gun-fire a volley of memorised public-school slang and idiom and proverbs. A deeper analysis would show that his “lexical playfield”, to recall the famous linguist, George Steiner’s phrase, has a Freudian, gastronomical and floral bias. A “royal” from Patiala all the way. His witticisms even when worn out do create a whole hum of meanings. “The style is the man”, observed the French literary critic, Buffon. Sidhu fits perfectly into that frame.

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Monkey and the cats: our world today
M. S. N. Menon

DO we want a hegemon — a Leviathan — over us? No one will say “yes” to that. And yet by giving America arbitrary power and making it a hegemon, the world is creating a great tragedy.

America is a queer country. It is where greedy people go to make money. They accept no rule which restrains their greed. But we never seem to learn the American ways. We are befuddled by Hollywood.

Some call America an imperialist country. Yet many take their problems to Uncle Sam. And Sam promptly puts them to use to serve his own foreign policy ends.

Catholics and Protestants of Ireland were in fratricidal conflict for about a century. They took their problem to Uncle Sam. Indians and Pakistanis are in conflict over Kashmir. They too took their case to Uncle Sam. Jews and Muslims are in conflict over Palestine. They too took their case to Uncle Sam. So did Sinhalese and Tamils, Nepalese, Taiwanese, the Balkan people and Africans.

In short, Uncle Sam has emerged as the final court of appeal to all peoples of the world today. He is the final court of appeal on economic matters, for he controls the WTO and the World Bank. He decides what human rights are to be enforced and what human values are to be observed. In fact, today, it is Uncle Sam who determines how you live and how you are governed.

And every zombie nation is willing to obey his whims and ways. But the zombie is programmed to keep saying: “I’m sovereign, I’m sovereign!” It is all so ridiculous. But how does this come about?

Prof Galbraith used to say that those rulers of the world who are real representatives of the people and who are competent would never allow their freedom to be eroded by a super power. According to him, only those who are dependent on the super power for their “kurzi” and who are incompetent would obey the dictates of a super power. This it true of every timpot dictator in the world. And of many others who claim to be elected.

This is not the only way a nation becomes weak. The parliamentary system is divisive of society. Which is why India is a classic case where fragmentation has gone berserk. It speaks in a hundred voices. There is nothing here to unite us as a nation. The externals are not strong enough. But our “great” founding fathers were not intelligent enough to see this.

Thus India became weak because its foundation was weak and its foundation was weak because the men who laid the foundation were not the best sons we had.

No doubt, power is with America. And, as Mao said, power is with the man with the gun. As the biggest gun is with America, it can compel obedience of the world. It decides on everything, whether it is globalisation or war against terrorism. But all up to a point. America is discovering to its dismay that all its weapons are of no avail against the terrorists. You cannot deal with them by taking the war to their homes. This calls for a different approach. We thought that we had found a way.

That was when we created the UN Charter. It sought to restructure the world after its devastation along lines of peace and prosperity. It was to reflect the collective will of the world community and the equality of nations. This was an ideal. But it was doomed from the start.

Why? Because America, the most powerful nation, did not believe in order, in a planned world. It was inspired by its own “frontier” ideology — of freedom, of chance, of opportunity, of hierarchy. Nor did it believe in democracy or equality of nations when it came to dealing with the world community.

Then, why did America lend its weight to create it? Because, America hides the true intentions of its foreign policy in the rhetoric of human ideals. What is more, America thought that the West would enjoy preponderance in the UN for ever. This was 1945, when decolonisation was yet a mirage.

However, with the disbandment of the colonial order, and the emergence of many independent states, the West lost its number game in the UN. It was obvious that the Western calculation had gone awry. The UN system, by the sheer exigency of circumstances, grew into a world management system, encompassing almost all aspects of human life and development. In other words, the UN system took on the character of a world planning body — an anathema in the eyes of those wedded to the “market” philosophy.

It was to make them humble that the West engineered the oil crisis in the early seventies, which made almost all developing countries debt-ridden and bankrupt. That bought them to a sense of realism.

And yet in a last burst of energy, the poorer countries demanded a New International Economic Order. It became evident to the ruling elite in the West that the UN was the real challenge to Western hegemony. This was not what they had in mind when they set about to create the UN and its agencies. So they decided to undo the UN and make it innocuous by starving it of funds.

Perhaps it was the determination of the developing countries to work out a code of conduct for the TNCs which was the “last straw” to the Western powers.

For all practical purposes, the USA has paralysed the work of the UN and its agencies. A new regulatory body (WTO) was created outside the UN, but under US control, to regulate the business of the world. The USA now wants to take peace and security outside the UN. It is true, it is not an easy matter. But the USA has made its intention clear: support the US policies or we will go ahead on our own. Iraq is perhaps going to be a test case.

So here we have the hegemony in all his panoply imposing his ruthless will on the rest of the world. And he is backed by 200 TNCs, which control the global economy.

Is there a way out? I do not see one. We have reached where we are by the folly of the rich and the blindness of the poor. One cannot reverse these unless one is ready to make sacrifices. Are the poor ready to make sacrifices? Have they the leaders with the nobility to get the people’s support?

I have serious doubts on that. Today “leaders” no more lead the people. They follow the compulsions of the mob. And a human mob is worse than a herd of wild animals.

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Drought dries up Australia’s economic smile
Ben Sandilands

UNTIL a few weeks ago the Australian economy was seemingly unassailable as the best performing in the western world. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was increasing at around 4 per cent a year, in contrast to the sluggish growth or even stagnation of North America, Europe, Singapore, Japan and Korea.

Then the worst drought in exactly 100 years finally forced itself on the attention of city Australians (that is, the seven out of 10 citizens who live in its seven largest cities of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart).

There had been plenty of warnings from sectional interests, like wheat farmers, graziers, wool growers and sugar cane producers, but none like a bulletin compiled by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE).

In its role as the government’s official commodity forecaster, ABARE likened the effects of the biggest ‘dry’ in living memory to a national strike in which every industry was shut down for six or seven weeks.

Added to the international uncertainty about Iraq and alarming signs that the two largest economies in the world, the US and Japan were falling into deep recession, the smile has been wiped off the faces of the Australian financial community.

ABARE’s executive director, Dr Brian Fisher, said Australian GDP over the next 12 months would fall 0.5 percentage points to 3.3 per cent, based on a current growth of 3.8 per cent. Other bodies, including Australia’s Reserve Bank, have put their estimates of GDP this year at 0.2 to 0.3 per cent higher.

“This will have a more significant impact on growth because of indirect as well as direct linkages between agriculture and other industries,” Dr Fisher said.

This means when the bush stops spending it hurts city retailers and their employees, and when it has less to export because of shrunken crops or meat exports, it hits the national economy by widening the gap between what Australia earns from its farms and what it spends on imports.

In fact prices for Australian wool have soared beyond the all time records of 1988 and grain prices have in some cases doubled. But this reflects scarcity, including crop disasters in Canada (drought) and Europe (flood).

These gains have turned to dust, like the top soil, for producers with little to sell at any price.

Cattle producers have already sacrificed their breeding stock just to keep ahead of the repossession orders from the banks, which means it will take many years after the end of the drought to build up their herds.

Ironically the strength of the Australian economy has been largely built on a weak exchange rate that has assisted manufacturing exports by making locally produced cars and other consumer durables affordable to buyers in markets where they had never been competitive in the past.

Now that advantage is gradually evaporating. Among many reasons given by currency dealers for a strengthening Australian dollar are forecasts that rising world demand for shrunken supplies of Australian farm produce will cause defensive purchasing and make it more attractive as a hedge against a weaker US dollar.

In the air conditioned shopping malls of metropolitan Australia the only sign of the drought until now has been a simultaneous decline in the quality of some fruits and vegetables while prices, especially for meats, have soared.

Thousands of jobs have disappeared in Sydney and Melbourne in the past month as transport services and food processing industries dependant on farm output have slashed their operations.

The Federal opposition leader in parliament, Simon Crean, says “Loosing these jobs is like digging the cement out of bricks in a wall, they weaken the ability of the economy to stand up, and the government must act now.” However, no comprehensive drought response plan has been forthcoming. The Australian Government’s major preoccupation of the moment is its support for the hardline US stance against Iraq, and public unease about the issues and risks.

There have been other warning signs about the drought, including high level dust haze floating over the southern capitals, where the gardens and parks remain green because of coastal rain fall.

Australia’s ski fields are buried in a deep snow pack the likes of which has not been recorded since the 1960s yet skiers drive to them through a brown landscape where savage frosts are killing off any spring growth fed by recent meagre showers.

The National Climate Centre says it is premature to compare the drought of 2001-2002 to that of 1901-1902, which wiped out half the sheep and three quarters of the grain crops of the country.

That disaster was known as the ‘Federation Drought’ coming just as the former Australian colonies federated into Australia the nation.

The centre’s senior meteorologist, Grand Beard, said the Federation drought was hotter and more widespread than the current situation. Guardian

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TRENDS & POINTERS

Love means sharing same diseases

MARRIED couples, share more than their homes, cars and finances — they are also likely to have some of the same diseases, experts say.

If a spouse suffers from asthma, depression, peptic ulcers, high blood pressure or raised cholesterol levels, the chances are their partner will be afflicted with the same illness.

“Partners of people with specific diseases are at increased risk of the disease themselves — at least 70 per cent increased risk for asthma, depression and peptic ulcer disease,” Julia Hippisley Cox of the University of Nottingham, central England has said.

The most likely reason for the shared diseases is the environment. Married couples usually eat the same foods, are exposed to same allergens and often have similar exercise patterns. These can contribute to ailments such as allergies, high blood pressure and raised cholesterol. Reuters

Couples get mental boost from marriage

Women, as well as men, benefit from marriage and get a mental health boost from being a couple, a new study says.

Research from Australia, which shows that about 13 per cent of married men and women suffer from stress, contradicts the findings of a 1972 study by sociologist Jessie Bernard.

Her study, which looked at anxiety, depression and neurosis in married and unmarried people, found that men reaped the benefits of marriage at the expense of women.

“The idea that men benefit from being part of a couple while women suffer all the stress has taken a blow,” New Scientist magazine said on Wednesday.

Psychologist David de Vaus, from LaTrobe University in Melbourne, said the difference between his findings and Bernard’s could be due to the definition of stress and mental disorder, which can manifest itself in men as drug and alcohol abuse.

When he studied data from a mental health poll of more than 10,000 adults from a 1996 national survey of mental health in Australia which included substance abuse as indicators of stress, he found that 25 per cent of single men and women were miserable.

In the female sample, married women with children had the fewest mental health problems.

“Psychologists are now debating whether Bernard’s conclusions have always been flawed, or whether women have become genuinely happier inside marriage over the past 30 years,” the magazine added. Reuters

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O man,

Do not be afraid of performing your marital duties.

With courage and conviction, follow the path of dharma.

Endowed with strength, honour and valour, may you obey your god-assigned duties and be happy.

— Yajurveda

***

Do your duty and leave the rest to the Gods.

— Pierre Corncille , Horace, 2.8

***

Without duty life is soft and boneless; it cannot hold itself together.

— Joseph Joubert, Pensees

***

The path of duty lies in the thing that is nearby, but men seek it in things far off.

— A Chinese proverb

***

Duty and responsibility are synonyms in the dictionary, but not in life... Duty is other-oriented, responsibility is self-oriented... And once you drop duty you are free to be responsible.

— Osho, Tao: The Pathless Path,

***

... To a person who is thoughtless and negligent of his duties, his enormous wealth and property will be of no value.

— The Tirukkural

***

Life-breath, verily is greater than hope.

Even as the spokes are fastened in the hub,

so on this life-breath all this is fastened.

Life moves by the life-breath.

Life-breath gives life;

It gives (life) to the living creatures.

Life-breath is one’s father;

Life-breath is one’s brother;

Life-breath is one’s sister;

Life-breath is one’s teacher;

Life-breath is one’s Brahmana.

If one answers unworthily to a father or mother, or a brother or a sister or a teacher of a Brahmana, say to him, shame on you... But if, when the life breath has departed from them one shoves them together with a poker and burns up every bit of them, people would not say, “You are a slayer of your father”, nor “You are a slayer of your mother”. And so on.

— Chhandogya Upanishad. Sanatkumar’s instrucstion to Narada

***

We are the men of a single breath and do not know the time of our death.

— Sri Guru Granth Sahib, Dhanasari

***

Do not procrastinate in remembering the Lord even for a moment because none knows whether the next breath will come or not.

— Sri Guru Granth Sahib, Bihagara

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