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Onion price spiral
Potential game-changers
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Progress of a pilgrimage
US-Pakistan nuclear deal
A bond for life
Are these Syria’s darkest days?
Evidence seems compelling, but...
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Onion price spiral
THOUGH the BJP defeat in the 1998 general election was widely attributed to a sharp rise in onion prices, the UPA at the Centre and other ruling parties in states seem to have learnt no lessons. Some have opened up retail outlets to help consumers, but this is only a political gimmick for attracting media attention.
An all-round genuine attempt to reverse the rising graph of prices is missing. Heavy rain and landslides do disrupt supplies in some parts of the country, resulting in price fluctuations. But the spiral in onion prices cannot be attributed to this alone. India is the second largest producer of onion after China. Apparently, there is no dearth of the commodity and the demand-supply mismatch seems to have been self-created. Obviously, middlemen and hoarders are exploiting the situation. Those who suspect cartels of traders at work with political blessings may not be off the mark. Media reports have pointed to hoarders at work but these have not spurred state governments to crack down on profiteers. Why has it taken so long for the Central government even to announce onion imports by Nafed? It could have encouraged/facilitated onion imports from Pakistan to beat the hoarders at their own game. Political parties seem too busy fighting over vital national issues; rising prices and the falling rupee do not figure on their priority list. Since traders are part of the BJP vote bank, does that explain the BJP silence on the nationwide loot of the customer? According to a NABARD report on onion production and distribution, a farmer sells onion at Rs 8 a kg and it should be available to the customer at Rs 14 after factoring in the transportation cost, the middleman’s reasonable profit and 25 per cent wastage, which is “normal”. However, unfair practices and hoarding distort prices. Government inaction or complicity allows/encourages the fleecing of the customer. It is vain to expect that those sleeping at the wheel would be held accountable. In the absence of governance and in her own interest, the consumer should either avoid or reduce onion consumption.
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Potential game-changers
WHEN women are given the privilege of reservation, some men think it is ill-deserved; hence they have a right to usurp it. But privileges bestowed upon men are generally considered to be well-earned. No wonder, women are used as rubber stamps by men who take over their positions of power.
Before a government attempts the promotion of women's participation in decision-making by way of reservations, it should try to change social attitudes by promoting education and economic empowerment of women. When changes are imposed from the top, they fail to reflect on the deep-seeded biases, which often suspect women's capabilities. Not just in panchayati institutions but in a fast-growing metro like Gurgaon, husbands, sons and other male relatives attend house meetings on behalf of women members with impunity; they also sign their attendance in the municipal corporation registers, thus keeping women culturally attuned to playing the second fiddle. Fortunately, this practice is opposed by other women councillors, who are trying to bring about a change in the mindset of both genders by asserting their role as decision-makers. Gender issues often fail to receive the seriousness they deserve at the top level of democratic machinery. Perhaps, this gets reflected in the ladder upward. Despite being the largest democracy in the world, India has only 10.8 per cent of women representation in the Lok Sabha (59 women out of 545 members) and 9 per cent in the Rajya Sabha (21 female MPs among 233 members). In fact even Pakistan and Afghanistan fare better than India on this front. Had the participation of women in the decision-making processes of our democracy been a priority with successive governments, 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament and state assemblies would have become a reality. The failure is a serious comment on the intent of the entire society that resists seeing women in positions of power. The pathetic representation of women in Parliament is a reflection of social resistance against the emancipation of the other sex.
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Progress of a pilgrimage
THE anxiously watched Amarnath Yatra is over. That the movement of 3.5 lakh people over two narrow tracks, traversing a peak 14,500 ft high and leading to the cave shrine in Kashmir, took place without any untoward incident is a remarkable logistic feat.
Thirteen pilgrims died of natural causes, but compared to 93 of last year, the toll is negligible, even if we take into account the fact that the number of total pilgrims last year was nearly double. A well-coordinated effort of the state government, multiple security agencies, BSNL, Met Department and even banks, the success was also the result of several corrective and precautionary measures taken by the Shri Amarnathji Shrine Board. The single most important step was ensuring no unregistered pilgrim undertook the arduous pilgrimage, and for registration everyone was required to produce a medical certificate. Besides the large number of deaths — mostly of medically unfit or aged pilgrims — in previous years, the yatra this year was also a muted affair because of the tragedy in Uttarakhand, where thousands of pilgrims on Char Dham Yatra died in sudden floods. Such has been the terror of the disaster that traffic to most hill stations has come down drastically, whether there is a danger or not. The Uttarakhand pilgrimage has thus far been an example of exactly how not to allow a mass movement of people. It is hoped that now on the 13-year-old state would make the esteemed pilgrimage a planned affair. Many of India's traditional fairs, pilgrimages and festivals — in which even a daunting trek has its charm — have today become victim to numbers. Greater availability of resources, transport, communication — combined with the travel bug that has bitten the 1.25-billion-strong country — has created unique challenges of its own. The biggest logistic challenge is seen, of course, at the Mahakumbh. Managing such congregations requires specific experience, towards which a mechanism may be devised to share the insight gained from each event, whether a success or failure. A new age requires a fresh approach to sustaining traditions too.
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All the people like us are we, and everyone else is They. —Rudyard Kipling
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US-Pakistan nuclear deal
EVER since the negotiations started between India and the US on a civilian nuclear deal, there has been an expectation within Pakistan that Islamabad should also receive a similar one. This expectation has now become a primary demand from the Pakistani side as the US has started its Afghan countdown towards December 2014. There is a general belief within Pakistan that the time is ripe to squeeze as much as they could from Washington. What reasons are being projected for such a demand within Pakistan vis-a-vis the US, and what are the real intentions behind? After opposing the Indo-US nuclear deal in the initial years, ironically, Pakistan is making use of the same reasons that New Delhi projected — a civilian nuclear deal to push the “nuclear” component of energy production within. Undoubtedly, Pakistan is reeling under a huge energy crisis, and needs substantial inputs and investments to its energy sector. But the crucial question in this context is: Will a civilian nuclear deal with the US help Pakistan achieve the same? Hardly, as the “nuclear component” of energy in Pakistan and India has always been miniscule. Even after the nuclear deal with the US, nuclear energy in India is unlikely to touch two digits in the overall energy contribution. For Pakistan also, it will be the case. Pakistan is well aware of this. Why then would Pakistan insist on a civilian nuclear deal with the US? The real reasons are political and strategic, rather than economic or energy related. In fact, the case is the same vis-a-vis Indo-US nuclear deal. How much has the nuclear deal with the US contributed in augmenting India's energy supply so far? How much is it likely to contribute in the next two decades? The real effect of the nuclear deal will always remain marginal in terms of energy production. However, the Indo-US nuclear deal politically has been a success story for India for it has shown how far the US was willing to go in bending the rules of the international nuclear regime. The nuclear deal was seen by Manmohan Singh’s government as India’s entry into the big club. It was seen as an expression of growing India’s stature and the strategic partnership with the US. Politically, Pakistan is also looking for the same. The second reason is nuclear commerce. Pakistan also wants to be recognised in the international nuclear regime the same way that India is being recognised now, and the follow-up nuclear commerce. More than a civilian deal with the US, it is the follow-up nuclear commerce at the international level which Pakistan is keen. A civilian nuclear deal with the US will provide a passport into it. The third reason is to erase the bad reputation that Pakistan has today, thanks to the illegal network led by AQ Khan. Though the State has distanced itself from AQ Khan's network, there have not been many takers at the international level who would give a clean chit to the State in Pakistan. The international nuclear regime, much to the dismay of Pakistan and its scholars, is suspicious of Pakistan's role in the nuclear black market. Pakistan perhaps hopes that a civilian nuclear deal with the US will somehow obliterate AQ Khan's dealings and give a clean chit to its establishment. Finally, the most important reason, the strategic one, is to sustain a nuclear race with India. Ever since the debate on a nuclear deal between India and the US started during the last decade, one of the primary fears within Pakistan has always been in terms of what such a deal would to the number of weapons and more importantly the fissile material stockpile of India. The primary apprehension within Pakistan over the Indo-US nuclear deal was that it would reduce the gap between the two countries over the number of nuclear weapons. By the end of the last decade, the widespread belief in the strategic communities of India and Pakistan placed the latter marginally ahead of the former in terms of the number of nuclear warheads, and also the fissile material stockpile. Today, the same community believes that there is a parity with, or places India slightly ahead of, Pakistan in terms of both the number of weapons and the fissile material stockpile. The greatest Pakistani fear is: What will happen five years down the lane? Pakistan wants to engage in a nuclear race with India, and more importantly wants to be ahead of the curve. Obviously, that is the only way that Pakistan could neutralise India's conventional superiority. If Islamabad has to lag behind New Delhi on the nuclear weapons as well, and with India's well-calculated projection of a “massive retaliation” the military leadership and the strategic community within Pakistan believe its nuclear assets would not provide deterrence. For a huge nuclear arsenal and a doctrine of massive retaliation is likely to deter Pakistan's smaller nuclear force. For Pakistan, it is important to stay ahead on the nuclear curve for another reason as well: to continue its support to sub-conventional warfare, especially through its jihadi army led by the Lashkar. One could see a trend since the 1998 nuclear tests in pushing more jihadis into India, and also expanding the areas. During the last decade, the jihadi violence led by the Lashkar and backed by Pakistan has covered entire India: the attacks on Ayodhya, Jaipur, Bangalore and Ahmedabad would underline this trend. The nuclear deterrence perhaps provides a rash confidence to Pakistan, or perhaps inhibits India from taking a punitive step. If the deterrence gets tilted in India’s favour — instead of being equal (as has been the case so far) — Pakistan might not be able to wage a sub-conventional warfare. Now, the most important question is: will the US yield to Pakistani pressure? Undoubtedly, the US is under pressure to finalise an early exit, leaving a semblance of stability in Afghanistan. And today a majority within the establishment is convinced that this cannot take place without Pakistan's active support. Pakistan has to be either coerced or cajoled. A nuclear deal could be one of those cajoling strategies. However, a section within the US establishment will remain vehement and opposed to any such deal. This section also opposed the Indo-US nuclear deal. However, it did not go all out against New Delhi, given India's track record. This may not be the case vis-a-vis Pakistan; AQ Khan has done enough damage to the credibility of Pakistan's record. Secondly, another section within the US is extremely sceptical and afraid of nuclear assets falling into the wrong hands. Hence, it will oppose any such deal. As a result, the pro-deal lobby favouring Pakistan will find the going tough. Should India be worried about a Pakistan-US nuclear deal? Given the Indo-US example, complications, domestic opposition and the track record, the real issue for India will not be a US-Pakistan nuclear deal. Even if Obama agrees in principle, the actual negotiation and its eventual outcome will not be easy. Rather, the real worry for India should be the ongoing Sino-Pakistan nuclear collusion, which is totally under wraps.n The writer is the Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi
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A bond for life
DO you speak English?” I asked a man, the desperation in my voice apparent. “A little”, he said as I struggled with the map to explain to him I needed to get to the old town in Prague (or Praha). He mumbled wispy directions and the number of stops that would get me there. Just as I was thinking how tough this is going to be, especially with my parents and kids in tow, a young man peered over my shoulder and asked if I needed help. Someone who spoke English and willing to help, it couldn't get better than this, I thought. It did! The 'benefactor' was an 18-year-old strapping lad headed in the same direction. We followed him as he took the metro. We got talking and by the time we reached our stop, were already friends. As we were parting, he paused and said: “I’ll show you around. I have time.” Over the next four hours, he was our friend, philosopher and guide, quite literally. He would slow down when we needed to catch our breath and fussed over my girls. Later, he saw us till our hotel. Thinking he may be hoping for money, my dad asked him: “Some money, David?” Offended, he exclaimed: “No, no money! I only wanted to help you!” We were overwhelmed. Later in the night, he called up to say he was swinging by. Now, my father (the Army man in him never left him) grew suspicious. Who does that? What's his motive? A few minutes later, in walked David with a book on Praha and a bagful of goodies, and invited us home the following day. “He’s a thug, or from the mafia!” my father declared, instructing us to keep our distance from him. It was decided we would visit his home (away from the main town) during the day (much safer) and in a tram (even more so!). The next morning saw him waiting for us at the hotel lobby. He also bought us day passes. My father’s aloofness melted into embarrassment when we saw his mother and kid sister at the door. David was no don! Their hospitality was endearing; it felt like home. We treated them to a meal at an Indian restaurant in the evening and laughed and chatted as we walked back to the hotel. He was back the next morning. We were leaving. He hoisted the bags effortlessly over his shoulders. We protested, but he thanked us for letting him build his body! There was some time for the train, so we wandered about. I asked him (an avid reader) to pick a book for himself. He refused, I insisted. “A book on India,” he smiled. “Of course”. He rushed to get bottled water for us and seated us when the train arrived. We were quiet. Misty eyed, he stood outside and waved as the train pulled away, wiping his tears with his sleeve. The bond defies logic. Karmic connection?
Perhaps.
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Are these Syria’s darkest days? THE victims were laid out in a hospital, on beds and on the tiled floor, their eyes lifeless and staring. Many of them were very young children, even babies. Others were in convulsion, mouths foaming, as medics frantically tried to save them, using hand-pump respirators.
These were the scenes from videos showing, it was claimed by the Syrian opposition, the devastating aftermath of a massacre of more than 1,300 people by Bashar al-Assad’s forces using chemical weapons in Ghouta, east of Damascus. The regime has denied the allegations, accusing “terrorists and their supporters” in the international media of disseminating false propaganda. Such recriminations have become standard in the vicious civil war. But, for the first time since reports of the use of weapons of mass destruction began to circulate, there is now a United Nations inspection team not only inside the country, but in the vicinity of the affected area. It arrived in the Syrian capital on Sunday after months of negotiations with the regime to investigate three occasions where chemical agents have, allegedly, been used in the past. One of these was at the village of Khan al-Assal near Aleppo where the two sides in the conflict accused each other of carrying out the attack resulting in 26 deaths; the location of the other two sites has not been confirmed. UN should investigate A number of Western states, including Britain, the US and France, asked the UN team to investigate the latest deaths. Following a closed-door emergency meeting tonight, the UN Security Council said it needed clarification on the attacks, but made no explicit call for a probe by the team in Syria. “There is a strong concern among council members about the allegations and a general sense that there must be clarity on what happened and the situation must be followed closely,” said Argentina’s UN ambassador, Maria Cristina Perceval, after the meeting. Russia and China had opposed language that would have demanded a UN probe. Earlier, the British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, said that if the claims were verified they would “mark a shocking escalation in the use of chemical weapons”. “I hope this will wake up some who have supported the Assad regime to realise its murderous and barbaric nature,” he added later. Russia had backed up the Assad regime’s denials, by saying the attack looked like a rebel “provocation” to discredit him. The French President François Hollande declared it was imperative that the team be allowed “to shed full light” on what had taken place and the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle demanded that the inspectors be given immediate access. The head of the 20-strong team of inspectors, Ake Sellstrom, a scientist from Sweden, said in Damascus: “It sounds like something that should be looked into. It will depend on whether any UN member state goes to the Secretary General and says we should look at this event. We are in place to do so.” What happened was recent enough for the inspectors to be able to form a view on what had happened, according to specialists on chemical warfare. Such a development may have a major impact on the course of the conflict. May be sarin Evidence that the regime has indeed used WMDs, with such a massive number of fatalities, would greatly strengthen the hands of those pressing for large-scale supplies of advanced weapons to the rebels. Evidence that the footage was fabricated would further dent the already fragile credibility of the disjointed opposition and weaken the position of their Western sponsors. Ghazwan Bwidany, a doctor treating the casualties, held that the symptoms indicated the use of sarin gas. “It may be sarin, most probably it is sarin” he said. “We don’t have the capacity to treat all this number of people. We’re putting them in mosques, in schools. We are lacking medical supplies now, especially atropine, which is the antidote for chemical weapons.” Bayan Baker, a nurse at the Douma Emergency Collection facility, initially put the death toll at 213. “Many of those affected are women and children. They arrived with their pupils dilated, cold limbs and foam in their mouths. The doctors say these are typical symptoms of nerve gas victims.” Local co-ordination committees of activists in the area said the numbers killed had risen to 1,360, while George Sabra, the deputy chief of the Syrian National Coalition, the main umbrella group of the opposition, announced a figure of 1,300. He said: “This is the coup de grâce which kills all hopes for a political solution in Syria. This is not the first time they have used chemical weapons, but it constitutes a significant turning point; this time it was for annihilation rather than terror.” However, there are questions as to why the regime would want to have recourse to WMDs at a time when it was making gains using conventional arms and with the knowledge that UN inspectors were present in the country. “If you look at the way they have sought legitimacy through having the UN team there, in a carefully orchestrated fashion, with the help of the Russians and the Iranians, the use of chemical weapons does not make sense,” said a European diplomat. Robert Emerson, a security analyst, added: “Assad has not been doing too badly in the publicity stakes with the excesses of Islamists among the rebels like the cannibal commander, et cetera. Deploying WMDs at this stage would be a hell of an own goal.” Something terrible Jean Pascal Zanders, a senior research fellow at the EU Institute for Security Studies in Paris, was also puzzled as to why the regime would carry out such an attack with UN experts there. But he continued: “It is clear that something terrible has happened. The scenes could not have been stage-managed. None of the victims appeared to have external wounds from blast, shrapnel or bullets. The footage seems to offer more convincing evidence of poisoning through asphyxiation - witness the pinkish-bluish hue on the faces of some of the fatalities. Further elements that seem to confirm exposure to toxicants are the unfocused and rolling eyes, severe breathing difficulties and possible signs of urination or defecation on trousers.” — The Independent |
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Evidence seems compelling, but...
PICTURES
showing that the Syrian army used chemical weapons against rebel-held Eastern Ghouta just east of Damascus are graphic and moving. But they are likely to be viewed sceptically because the claims so much resemble those made about Saddam Hussein’s possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) before the US and British invasion of Iraq in 2003. Nevertheless, the present claim differs from previous ones in the number of dead, variously put at between 213 and 1,360 and the quantity of YouTube evidence of the dead and dying supported by interviews with local activists. Like the Iraqi opposition to Saddam, who provided most of the evidence of WMDs, the Syrian opposition has every incentive to show the Syrian government deploying chemical weapons in order to trigger foreign intervention. Although the US has gone cold on armed involvement in Syria, President Obama did say a year ago that President Bashar al-Assad’s use of such weapons was “a red line”. The implication is that the US would respond militarily, though just how has never been spelt out. But the obvious fact that for the Syrian government to use chemical weapons would be much against their own interests does not prove it did not happen. Governments and armies do stupid things. But it is difficult to imagine any compelling reason why they should do so since they have plenty of other means of killing people in Eastern Ghouta, such as heavy artillery or small arms, which they regularly use. Every day, Damascus resounds to the sound of outgoing artillery fire aimed at rebel strongholds. The problem is that the evidence so far for the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian army is second-hand and comes from a biased source. This is a good reason to have a 20-strong team of UN experts in Damascus to investigate in three cases if either the government or the opposition has been using poison gas. Could they go to Eastern Ghouta and investigate the opposition claim immediately? This is not very likely given the limited nature of their mandate and the necessity to cross between government and rebel-held territory. In June, the US said it has conclusive evidence for the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government and would therefore give aid to the rebels. The US action was most likely precipitated by the government’s loss of the town of al-Qusayr and a fear that the Damascus government might be starting to dominate the battlefield. Chemical-weapons experts expected the US to go out of its way to prove its conclusions were correct by being open about the origin of tested materials and the means by which they reached laboratories in the US. They also wanted details of the laboratory testing but little of this was produced. International media organisations do their best to verify YouTube footage, but they do not have reporters who are eyewitnesses to chemical-weapons attacks. Scepticism about film produced by opposition activists has increased in the past two years but frequently it is the only evidence available. The difficulty is, can it be concocted or edited to prove a point? The propaganda war fought through YouTube is an important front in the Syrian civil war. How sure is one that a film of a Syrian soldier being decapitated by al-Qa’ida-linked fighters has not been staged by Syrian security? Opposition groups use film against each other. Film purporting to show that 400 Kurds had been massacred by the rebels appears to have been manufactured by a Kurdish party using film of similar atrocities in Syria and Iraq. Outraged denunciations and demands for an investigation by the US and Britain are unlikely to cut much ice because of memories of similar statements about WMDs in Iraq. At this stage of the war in Syria it is also unlikely that the stalemate will be broken by foreign intervention. — The Independent
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