The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

Unwelcome attention
ATM heists have an Indian connection

Hackers stole the numbers of prepaid debit cards issued by the UAE’s National Bank of Ras Al-Khaimah and the Bank of Muscat by breaking into the computer systems of credit card processing companies, two of them in India. On December 21 last year and February 19 this year, they withdrew $44 million in cash from automatic teller machines (ATMs) in various cities of over two dozen countries.

The cyber sophistication and coordination did not extend to the perpetrators, many of whom have been arrested. The ring leader was found dead. He had been shot.

The heist attracted international attention, and along with it came the negative spotlight on the Indian credit card processing companies whose computer systems were compromised. This caper will cast a shadow over the outsourcing industry which is estimated to be at over $100 billion. The two companies, ElectraCard Services and EnStage, have responded in a responsible fashion. They are cooperating with the authorities and have involved outside agencies to advise them on the matter, even as they face restrictions as a consequence of their security being compromised.

The cyber world is flat, which also means that international criminals can strike out at computers that are vulnerable, no matter what their physical location. At least two such attacks took place on US firms earlier, and overall Indian companies have a good record on cyber security. However, as the world relies more on computers, criminals too are devising new and sophisticated ways of attacking computer systems that house enormous amounts of data. While cyber security norms have been tightened in Indian outsourcing firms, the need of the hour is to provide foolproof security. In order to do so, companies need to invest more in expertise, time and training. As custodians of all kinds of sensitive information, firms engaged in banking, health and other such industries must ensure privacy of the customers and security of the data that they handle.

Sleaze in IPL
It kills trust in cricket

IT is a sad day when the uncertainties inherent in sport are undermined by the lure of money. Yet, the insiders of the Indian Premier League – which, let us face it, exists only to make money for team owners and the Indian cricket board (BCCI) – are not really shocked by the revelations of spot-fixing that have struck a significant blow to the credibility of the league.

Only last year five players had been banned, for various terms, by the IPL and the BCCI after a TV sting operation caught them either agreeing to do spot-fixing in domestic matches, or illegally negotiating for more money in the IPL.

In the shortest form of the game, the unpredictability of the events is multiplied manifold, which makes it impossible to detect wrongdoing; this, in turn, makes it very easy to manipulate the events occurring on the field. Right from the first IPL tournament in 2008, there have been suspicions about some really improbable, astounding results in several matches. They all had been explained away as part of the “glorious uncertainties of cricket”. Now the Delhi Police has, armed with the evidence it has gathered, managed to explain the inexplicable, dealing a mortal blow to the trust fans placed in the IPL or, indeed, cricket and sport.

It would be easy to concentrate hate and revulsion on the three players caught by the police. However, it is a fact that these three are mere fries. Sleaze in the IPL flows right from the top, from the office of N Srinivasan, who has managed to cling to his wholly untenable position of the BCCI president despite being an IPL team owner. There can’t be a bigger conflict of interests. The conflict of interests is the dictum in the IPL, and everyone is complicit – from commentators like Sunil Gavaskar to players/managers like Anil Kumble. Some team owners are being investigated for FERA violations, others are suspected of money laundering. In this atmosphere of sleaze, it’s not a surprise if, individually, a few cricketers tried to make a few extra buck for themselves – they see everyone else trying to make money by hook or crook. The big question is: Will the big fish be caught? They are, sadly, likely to get away in the honoured Indian tradition of timeless probes. Remember the ongoing and ineffectual probes against Lalit Modi?

Thought for the Day

The privilege of a lifetime is being who you are. — Joseph Campbell

ARTICLE

China’s long sleep and dream
Li’s visit may be a memorable one
by T.V. Rajeswar

THE Chinese nation had slept for well over a century. This was the period when the Anglo-Saxons unleashed the disgraceful opium war (1839 – 1862) in the name of free trade, killing thousands of unarmed Chinese people. The Chinese nation was sleeping during this period. Napoleon Bonaparte famously said, “Let it sleep; when it wakes up it will shake the world”. With the arrival of Mao Zedong, followed by Deng Xiaping, China has truly shaken off its slumber and it’s now well and truly awake and alert.

Now the Chinese have started dreaming and dreaming big. The Chinese Communist Party recently elected a new General Secretary and other members of the Politburo. The new General Secretary, who is also the military commander-in-chief, Xi Jinping, announced that China has the greatest dream which was the revival of the Chinese nation. His announcement reverberated throughout the nation. Schools have been organising “Chinese-dream” speaking competitions. Party officials have selected model dreamers to tour workplaces and inspire others with their achievements. An analyst writes that the adoption of a personal slogan that conveys a sense beyond normal wisdom and vision in a short memorable phrase has been a rite of passage since the time of Chinese resurgence.

The latest slogan is ringing throughout the Chinese nation. In his acceptance speech, Xi Jinping stated at the National People’s Congress, China’s Parliament, that the Chinese dream would be fulfilled by the middle of the century. It was ordered soon after that the concept of the Chinese dream be written into school textbooks to make sure that the message got across.

After his recent visit to Beijing, the American Secretary of State, John Kerry, said that the America, China and other countries should all work towards a pacific dream of cooperation on issues ranging from job growth and climate change control of pandemic disease and proliferation. This suggestion did little to abate mutual suspicion between the two countries. The idea of a pacific dream, said a Chinese commentator, was an American attempt to spread the American dream to every corner of Asia in order to ensure America’s dominance of this region.

Xi Jinping has also said that the Chinese dream is the people’s dream. He said at the National People’s Congress that while China has no doubt well and truly risen from its long slumber, it should not alarm the neighbouring nations and their people. But the actual situation is somewhat different. China is going all out to strengthen itself militarily and economically. China has made territorial claims on South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and India. India does not accept the assertion of China on the South China Sea. Japan also has reacted strongly to Chinese military actions near the disputed Islands. With the US backing as its secondary strength, Japan has warned that it would not accept China’s claims on the disputed islands and would challenge them.

A well-known Chinese think tank recently published an interesting Blue Book. While it may not represent the official view of the government, it is very close to it since the government and party officials man these think tanks. On India, the Blue Book has expressed the view that the government is in serious crisis but it is likely to emerge as a strong country after successfully dealing with its problems and challenges. It is worthwhile to know that the Blue Book summary on India refers to corruption scandals and divisions within the UPA. On the foreign policy front, the Blue Book notes that India has focussed on boosting relations with its neighbours in South Asia, pushed forward peace with Pakistan and developed strategic relations with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, countries with whom China also had strong economic ties.

The Blue Book sees the US as a pivot to Asia and strengthening of alliances in the region is viewed by the Chinese analyst as being directed to contain China. The Blue Book also notes that India’s defence cooperation with the US, Japan, Vietnam and Australia has strengthened it.

What lessons does India need to learn from these developments? India has to act with maturity while dealing with the resurgent China.

The recent Chinese intrusion in Ladakh has been dealt with amicably after flag meetings between Indian Generals and their Chinese counterparts and also by holding discussions between the two countries at the diplomatic level.

When External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid visited Beijing, his discussions with his Chinese counterpart provided the hope that sooner or later an amicable border settlement between two great countries of the Asia can be worked out.

A reference to a book by Martin Jacques of the London School of Economics titled “When China Rules the World” (published in 2012) is inescapable. Martin Jacques’s celebrated book overturns conventional thinking about the ascendancy of China, showing how its impact will not be just economic but also cultural. As China’s powerful civilization reasserts itself, it will signal the end of the global dominance of the Western nation-state, and a future of ‘contested modernity’.

The forthcoming visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang is of considerable importance. While interacting with an Indian youth delegation in Beijing, imperial gardens housing the headquarters of China’s ruling Communist Party and central government, Li spoke warmly about his visit to India 27 years ago as the leader of a youth delegation. The fond memories of the visit made him choose India as his first overseas visit after becoming the Premier. After reaching New Delhi on May 19, Li will also visit Mumbai before leaving for Pakistan, Germany and Switzerland.

Li went on to say that that for this vision to come true, the two countries must shake hands and conduct exchanges so that together we can raise the standing of Asia in the world and truly make the Asian economy an important engine for the world economy.

Let‘s hope that the Chinese Premier’s visit will truly mark an important phase in Sino-Indian relations.

MIDDLE

Traders in misery
by V.K. Kapoor

IN life there is nothing “Just Right”. Poverty clings closer than a blanket. Horse and bicycle still drag a lingering life. A land of persistent and silent toil, where sorrow and want is a part of daily existence.

A doctor friend rang me up the other day. He used to send patients to a big hospital in the city. One hospital was not paying his dues for sending patients. He told me that he had sent two patients. Both died after reaching the hospital. Both were “treated” after their death, and the hospital charged huge sums from their relations but was not paying his share. He said this was happening everywhere. When a private doctor refers a patient to a clinic, he gets his percentage. Even when patients are sent to a private laboratory for blood and sugar test, the doctor gets his percentage.

I had reasons to believe him. I was a non-official member of Burail Jail for four years. There I found four doctors lodged in the jail. Three were women. One was a dentist, who had murdered her husband mercilessly in an up-market hotel after an altercation. Both of them had second marriage and both came from very good families. The second lady was a gynaecologist, who was having an affair with a judge. When he refused to marry her, she had him brutally murdered. The third lady told me that her husband had committed suicide, but had said in his dying declaration that she had sprinkled oil on him and had set him on fire.

The fourth doctor was the head of cardiac surgery in a leading hospital of the region. He was in jail because he in connivance with a chemist was putting substandard stents after a heart operation. I thought it was a coldblooded murder. When lying on an operation table, there is God above and the doctor doing his job, I found his conduct worse than a butcher.

I was shocked how morals perish in the coalmine of greed. Greed is inevitable. It is a part of human nature. Greed cannot be regulated with precision. There is a deep dark subway that rumbles underneath the human being. The canaries of capitalism don’t even spare the leftovers of life. Commercial culture has the ability to narcotise the educated and responsible people. They don’t bother about the torments of the small fish caught in the propeller of circumstances, dolphins pleading for help. The British contempt for Indians may be justified. They considered them “Degraded perverse, untruthful, shifty and effeminate”.

When I talked to the same doctors about their senior colleague’s conduct, he remarked, “He was an innocent and straightforward person. He accepted money in cheques. The rest accept in cash. This is the done thing.”

Some of my best friends are doctors and I can vouchsafe for their professional integrity and humane approach. The black sheep bring a bad name to the whole profession. They are symbols of the mercentary age.n

OPED Pakistan

A tough new world awaits Nawaz
Despite his clear mandate, Nawaz Sharif would find it hard to carry along the myriad tribes, regions, ideologies and power centres that lean in on Pakistan. The country, however, has a fresh start in the fact people of all shades got to vote, a ‘New Pakistan’, as Imran Khan would have it
F.S. Aijazuddin

F.S. Aijazuddin

THE gods have been cruel to Imran Khan. Just as he was soaring in the final hours of his electoral campaign, the long-maned, middle-aged Icarus fell, injuring himself and his party’s prospects at the polls.

Right now, Imran Khan lies in a bed, supine, immobile. It is many a female yuppie’s dream. Unfortunately, it is a hospital bed in the Shaukat Khanum Hospital in Lahore, the cancer facility he established primarily from donations made by the very people, among others, who have supported his political campaign. The momentum that he had built up with such vigour for his party — the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) — collapsed just as it was reaching a crescendo. Ironically, the election campaign that he fought with such bravado has yielded a result that he may regret.

Nawaz Sharif has not forgotten US President Clinton’s intervention over Kargil in 1999, nor Saudi support when he was under trial on the orders of his nemesis, General Pervez Musharraf. He is too mature not to be aware of the economic, social and theocratic boundaries within which he will be expected to operate.

From the unofficial results, two realities have emerged. First, the PTI does not have enough seats in the National Assembly to make Imran Khan the next Prime Minister of Pakistan. That trophy goes to Mian Nawaz Sharif. Secondly, the PTI has too many seats in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to avoid being its next government.

It will take some time for the Election Commission of Pakistan to declare the final tally. Logically, there should be no delay in announcing the results where there is no dispute, i.e., the majority of the constituencies. Where a recount has been demanded (NA 125, for one) or where, as in Karachi, a re-poll will be necessary in more than one seat, it may take a little time for the final figures to be announced and notified. Whatever be the results of such a re-poll, they are unlikely to affect the overall configuration at the national level. Even without an absolute majority, the PML-N has enough seats to form the next government, with either the MQM or the PTI as its coalition partner. Interestingly, they are both eligible as both have secured almost the same number of seats in the National Assembly.

People, power

Police personnel inspect a blast site in Quetta. Imran Khan’s PTI will have a steep learning curve ruling the tough Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The vision Nawaz Sharif has for Pakistan’s future is clear. It is based on his experience. He has been Prime Minister twice. It is predicated on pragmatism. He has not forgotten US President Clinton’s intervention over Kargil in 1999, nor Saudi support when he was under trial on the orders of his nemesis, General Pervez Musharraf. He is too mature not to be aware of the economic, social and theocratic boundaries within which he will be expected to operate, locally and internationally.

Locally, in the short-term, he will need to tackle the energy deficit. Summer outages are never a happy time for new governments. Pakistan has an energy deficit compounded by a circular debt that ricochets between a bankrupt government, unpaid producers, a leaking transmission network, and defaulting distribution companies. It is more than likely that Saudi Arabia will come to his aid yet again. An immediate solution would be for Nawaz Sharif to negotiate with the Saudis for supply of furnace oil at a concessional rate, preferably with soft payment terms.

The International Monetary Fund has kept Pakistan’s programme for the next year on ice until the new government could be formed. Some weeks ago, it received a delegation cobbled together by the Interim Cabinet, but no decisions were expected nor any taken, since it was clear that both sides were following a wait-until-we-leave and wait-until-you-have-gone strategy. Mian Nawaz Sharif has already identified Ishaq Dar (an in-law and former FM) as his Finance Minister. Dar knows the ropes and should be able to tie the necessary knots swiftly and securely with the IMF.

Foreign affairs

On Foreign policy, Nawaz Sharif will follow the doctrine enunciated by his dear friend, the late I.K. Gujral. He wants to practise what Gujral preached — peace with every neighbour and goodwill to all people, especially Indians. India can, therefore, expect an increasing intensity in Indo-Pak courtship, without the discouraging presence of a military chaperone. The army though will watch with more than a casual interest Nawaz Sharif’s treatment of General Musharraf. Sharif may be well advised to show Musharraf the same magnanimity he received when the tables were different a decade ago.

On religious extremism, Nawaz Sharif’s Ka’aba in more ways than one is located in Saudi Arabia. He knows better than the rightist Islamic parties do — for he has been in power and they have not — the balance every Pakistani Prime Minister has to maintain between hard-line extremists, temperate moderates, and the secular faint-hearted.

In a sense, all of Nawaz Sharif’s three wishes have been granted. He has the prime-ministership for the next five years, through his brother Shahbaz he retains absolute control of the Punjab (which represents 62 per cent of the country), and he does not have to deal directly with the problems of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

The badlands

From his sickbed, Imran Khan has taken his first important decision. He has nominated PTI’s secretary-general Pervez Khattak as his Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. By doing so, he has admitted that personally he would prefer Islamabad over Peshawar, to oppose (and if necessary, serve) in a federal heaven than to rule in a provincial hell.

What are the traumas, though, that his PTI-led government can expect to face in that troubled province?

The first has to be the establishment of the writ of the state in an area where disobedience outside the clan and armed individualism are regarded as manly virtues.

The second is to fill the political vacuum left by the annihilation of the Awami National Party, led by Isfandiyar Wali Khan, the grandson of Bacha Khan — known in India (and therefore not in Pakistan) as the Frontier Gandhi. Despite 60 years of hereditary dominance, the ANP was not able to win a single seat in the province. It was like evicting a dynasty of Nehrus-Gandhis without a day’s notice.

The third is to stop the US drone attacks. In this, the PTI may already have its work cut out. The US and its allies will be withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2014. Osama bin Laden is already in Davy Jones’s locker. Drone attacks are showing a diminishing return. After Iraq and Afghanistan, Syria is and will continue to be the new theatre of war. Who needs drones?

On female education and child immunisation, the PTI will need to remember that Malala Yusufzai (the world’s youngest Nobel nominee and the West’s latest icon) belongs to Swat, which lies within Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Perhaps the most intractable problem will be the unholy trinity of a predictably unsettled post-2014 Afghanistan, an intractable Taliban, and linked to it, the anti-MQM Pakhtuns who labour in Karachi’s industries and manage Pakistan’s road transportation services. They have as strong a hold on our economy as the other batch of Khans do in Mumbai’s Bollywood.

The next five years will be the apprenticeship in governance that Imran Khan and his PTI team (except for a few like Shah Mehmood Qureshi or Shafqat Mahmood) never had. If they learn now, they will be able to teach during the following five years. Their performance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will be the litmus test for the General Elections 2018.

New Pakistan

Does this imply that Imran Khan’s slogan ‘Naya Pakistan’ will be relegated to the shelf of history like Kennedy’s ‘New Frontier’ and Nixon’s ‘New Federalism’?

The answer is an unequivocal ‘no’. Imran may not have been able to succeed in gaining as many seats in the National and the Provincial Assemblies as he had hoped. He may have been handed government of a province that will force him to bond with a race with which he has identified himself superficially, rather like the Afro-American US actor Sidney Poitier once did (or didn’t) with his.

What Imran Khan has been able to achieve is to weld the Pakistanis together on May 11 into one nation, to remind them of their rights as voters and the potency of their vote, and to attract them to the polling booths to deliver their mandate.

According to Pakistan’s Election Commission, the turnout was almost 60 per cent, out of an electorate of 86 million. The old came in wheelchairs, some came clutching walkers, the middle-aged supported themselves on hope, and the young came beaming rainbows. That is the ‘New Pakistan’ Imran Khan has unleashed. They may not have won the seats they aspired for in 2013. They will count the days until 2018.

The writer has been a senior professional in private and public sectors. He has also been Principal, Aitchison College, Lahore, and is an internationally recognised art-historian, author and a columnist for Dawn, Pakistan’s leading English daily.

Lahore Log
Imran has a foot in, now to push the door open
By Raj Chengappa

PTI chief Imran Khan speaking from the hospital bed.

EVER since Imran Khan was admitted to the Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre after he fell off a forklift during an election rally on May 7, it is guarded like a fortress. The Punjab police’s elite counter-terror forces wearing black T-shirts with ‘No Fear’ emblazoned on them guard the hospital entrance and the wards that house him. It’s the hospital Imran built in memory of his mother who died of cancer.

It is past 10 in the night, but Imran has a stream of visitors, including party men waiting to see him. Aleema Khan, his younger sister, regulates the traffic even as she discusses with friends allegations of extensive rigging against candidates of Imran’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), in the just concluded General Elections. Much to Imran’s disappointment, the PTI won only 27 of the 272 directly elected seats in the National Assembly, but even then the cricketing icon has emerged as a powerful third force in Pakistan’s maturing democracy.

Aleema tells a group of politicians who have come from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) not to stay long as it would put a strain on his health. In KPK, the PTI made substantial gains and emerged the single largest party in the simultaneously held Provincial Assembly elections, winning 34 of the 99 seats. In doing so, the PTI routed the Awami National Party, the largest Pashtun national party in the state, notching a significant victory in this troubled province that borders Afghanistan. Khan is a Pashtun himself by birth, but prefers to identify himself with the state of Punjab, where he grew up.

Before his KPK party members saw him, Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief, who is expected to be the next Prime Minister of Pakistan after the PML-N emerged the single largest party in the Parliamentary polls, dropped by. This was their first meeting after Imran’s injury and the blistering no-holds-barred election campaign. Both congratulated each other on their party’s success. Wishing him speedy recovery, Nawaz joked that from now they should only “play friendly matches” in politics. Imran’s staff also told me that before Nawaz met him, Rahul Gandhi had called Imran and had inquired about his health.

It’s close to midnight before Imran’s aides says I could see him. We take a lift to the second floor and then two flights of stairs to the special ward where he is housed. Commandos ask us to deposit our phones and any other electronic items, including tape recorders and cameras. His aides say Imran had hairline fractures in two of his vertebrae and it would take several weeks before he could walk again.

I walk into his room and Imran, wearing a hardened cobalt-blue sleeveless gown and lying supine, greets me. He looks trim, even lean, despite turning 60. He is in obvious pain as turns uncomfortably to one side so that he could face me and talk. I congratulate him on his party’s success. He tells me the PTI should have got many more seats in the vitally important state of Punjab given the visible support it enjoyed.

I mention to him that I was witness to the enthusiasm for his party in Lahore on voting day and narrate how I met two non-resident Pakistanis from Dubai, both chartered accountants, who had flown in just to vote for him. Imran’s eyes light up and he says that while cricket had taught him to accept the results once the game was over and move on, his party wanted re-polling and recounting in certain constituencies where rigging was obvious. If the investigation that the PTI wants done by the Election Commission found irregularities in these booths, it would validate its argument that the elections results were suspect.

I tell Imran that the election results have given him the most difficult laboratory in KPK to prove his “Naya Pakistan” mission, but if he pulls it off then the next general election is his. I also mention that the PTI’s success in ruling KPK depended on several other stakeholders cooperating, like the federal government soon to be headed by Nawaz Sharif, the Americans, who carry out drone attacks regularly in KPK, and the Afghan government. Not to mention the Taliban that is extremely active in the region. “We will make it a success,” Imran says confidently and points out that that the onus is also on the federal government to help the state, so the PML-N can’t wash its hands of the responsibility.

His aides signal that the time is up and I wish him speedy recovery and depart. It’s past midnight but Imran has still several visitors waiting for him. His aides say he works till fairly late and is an early riser. It’s apparent that Imran would not let a few fractured vertebrae get in the way.

Early that morning, I met Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri, former foreign minister of Pakistan, who contested on the PTI ticket but lost. Kasuri says he finds the results of the elections, particularly in Punjab, highly suspect, and adds, “I have seen three waves in Pakistan in my lifetime, that of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto when I was young and people knew that Bhutto would win. The second was Mian Nawaz Sharif wave in 1997 and everybody saw he was the most popular leader, and the third one was in 2013, the Imran Khan wave. The irony is everybody saw the Imran wave, but Nawaz Sharif won in Punjab.”

Kasuri then adds dramatically, “As of May 12 (the day of the results), Imran Khan is effectively Prime Minister in waiting.” If Nawaz Sharif doesn’t deliver in his third term as Prime Minister, then going by the current trends, it may be Imran Khan’s turn to lead the nation in 2018, or even earlier. Imran Khan may now have a foot in the door, but it will take a lot of proving to do in KPK to push it open all the way.

Musharraf and Zardari: Arrested development

Pervez Musharraf is in house arrest at his residence in Islamabad. — AFP

While Nawaz Sharif basks under the glow of a creditable victory in the parliamentary elections, his bête-noire, General Pervez Musharraf, glowers in the confines of his house in Islamabad, isolated from his friends. Musharraf has been under house arrest, ordered by courts trying his various misdemeanours, including charges of treason while he was President, soon after he returned to contest the elections. The courts had barred him from contesting the four National Assembly seats that he had filed his election papers for. But his All-Pakistan Muslim League (APML) managed to win only one seat in the National Assembly and another in the KPK provincial Assembly.

Pervez Musharraf

There has been widespread speculation in Pakistan as to why Musharraf returned to Pakistan from the comforts of his posh house in London. Some believe it was delusions of grandeur that he always suffered from that made him spurn the advice of his friends in the army and return. Others say that a Turkish Sufi seer he believes in predicted that Musharraf would not only be at the helm of affairs in Pakistan again but also emerge a leader of Muslim nations across the world.

Yet others say that the former commando was using his tactic of surprise attacks to force the army to support him in dealing with vexatious cases that he is being tried for. His friends, though, believe that Musharraf returned because he genuinely believes that he is not guilty of the charges being levelled against him and wants to fight out the cases in court and clear his name.

Asif Ali Zardari

Initially, there was resentment among retired generals who felt that a former army chief being tried for treason would sully the name of the armed forces and lower its prestige. But the current Army Chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, has apparently decided that he wouldn’t interfere in the process and would allow the law to takes its course.

With Sharif returning as Prime Minister, he may offer him the same deal as Musharraf gave him after the coup in 1999 — go into exile, either in London or Jeddah, and not return for the next 10 years — in return for the cases being pardoned. Meanwhile, Musharraf’s friends in the army have reportedly politely warned Nawaz Sharif not to set up a Kargil commission that he was planning in order to pin the blame on the former President for launching the attack. It will be interesting to see if Sharif heeds the advice.

Meanwhile, the joke doing the rounds in Lahore is that ever since Asif Ali Zardari became President in 2008, he has been virtually under house arrest. Living in a gilded cage, Zardari rarely stirs out of his house or addresses gatherings except at must-do events. Even during the elections, unlike Kayani, who cast his vote in a polling booth, Zardari preferred to send his via postal ballot. Others say that what’s happening to Musharraf in terms of cases being filed against him after he demitted office as President is being seen as a dress rehearsal for Zardari when he demits office in September.

Post Script: On my way back from Lahore to the Wagah border, Majid, my driver, asked me sadly: “What will happen to Sunjoo bhaya now?” He was referring to Sanjay Dutt and his prison term. On Sanjay’s fate, it appears many Indian and Pakistani hearts beat as one.