G R O U N D   Z E R O

Why Pakistan upped the ante on the border
Raj Chengappa

The Pakistan Army and the government are working in consonance to disrupt the forthcoming J&K elections to discredit India internationally. Modi’s big test lies in handling the latest Kashmir crisis, putting it above political interests of the BJP in the state.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited his Pakistani counterpart to his swearing-in ceremony this May and Nawaz Sharif accepted the invitation, it was hailed as an act of statesmanship. With the governments they headed enjoying a majority in their respective Parliaments there were expectations of a significant upturn in India-Pakistan relations.

That hope gathered momentum when it was agreed to resume the dialogue process with Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh to travel to Islamabad to meet Pakistan Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry in August. But that initiative was soon shot to pieces when India cancelled the visit after it complained that Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit had crossed the red line by holding talks with Kashmir separatists despite requests not to do so.

Since then everything has gone downhill and relations between the two touched another low this month, with heavy fire being exchanged daily, both on the LoC and the International Border, killing civilians on both sides. As of yesterday, India claimed that nine of its civilians had died while Islamabad maintained that 12 Pakistani civilians had been killed.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Sartaj Aziz upped the ante by requesting UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to intervene, accusing India of “deliberate and unprovoked violations of the ceasefire agreement and cross-border agreement”. Aziz also sought the support of the UN Security Council on this issue. In September, Sharif in his address to the UN General Assembly devoted several minutes talking on Kashmir and even raised the issue of implementing the 1948 UN Resolution for holding a Plebiscite in Kashmir — the first time in recent years that a Pakistan PM has done so.

Pakistan Army Chief Raheel Sharif is the latest to raise the Kashmir bogey. AFP

Not be outdone the opposition Peoples Party of Pakistan (PPP) went even shriller with its chief, the young Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, stating, “I will take back Kashmir, all of it… as it belongs to Pakistan.” Yesterday Pakistan Army Chief Raheel Sharif joined the war of words. While addressing a passing-out parade at the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul he said, “Lasting peace in the region will only come about with a fair and just resolution of the Kashmir issue in accordance with the will of Kashmiri people, enshrined in the UN Resolution.”

On India’s part, the Modi government’s stand on Pakistan has toughened since August. On ceasefire violations, India’s armed forces have been told to hit back and send a clear message to Pakistan that such “adventurism”, as Defence Minister Arun Jaitley termed it, would not be tolerated. Meanwhile, the Ministry of External Affairs has dismissed Pakistan’s plea to the UN as futile and advised them to talk directly to Delhi instead of heading to New York.

With both India and Pakistan taking maximalist stands and border firing continuing there appears little hope of a thaw. So what’s driving the new aggressive posture? There are several reasons, some of them obvious. With the recent internal political turmoil weakening Sharif’s position vis-à-vis the Pakistan Army, he is forced to abandon his conciliatory approach towards India, and close ranks with it for a tough approach on Kashmir.

The Pakistan Army’s compulsion appears to be that while it launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb (sharp and cutting strike) in June to neutralise terrorists groups inimical to Islamabad in North Waziristan, including the Pakistan Taliban, Afghan militants and Al-Qaeda, putting Kashmir on the front burner helps it in two ways. It keeps the ISI-supported militant groups targeting India happy and also is an excuse for the Army to tell the US that it cannot commit more forces on its Afghanistan border as Kashmir has become hot again.

The main reason though for Pakistan raising the temperature on the Indian border appears to be the upcoming Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. The Pakistan Army and the government seem to be working in consonance on this. Increased firing on the border indicates that the ISI is trying to slip in as many militants as possible to disrupt the elections before winter sets in and the passes close.

To ensure a low voter turnout, apart from the Hurriyat calling for a boycott, violence is likely to be stepped up in the Valley. By restating its Plebiscite demand and taking it to the UN, Pakistan hopes to bring the international spotlight back on Kashmir. If there is a low voter turn-out in the Valley, Pakistan will use it to prove that India’s stance on Kashmir lacks credibility.

The Modi government faces a dilemma. It has been pushing hard for the BJP to win the Assembly elections and there is even talk of anointing a Hindu chief minister in the state. So the Central government needs to maintain a tough stance with Pakistan to rally its supporters. At the same time, it has to ensure that the votes are not so polarised that the Muslim majority in the Valley opts either for the National Conference or the Peoples Democratic Party or, worse, boycotts the elections in substantial numbers. How the Prime Minister steers India through the current crisis in Jammu and Kashmir will be a litmus test of his leadership.

raj@tribuneindia.com