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Governors and
governance Marriage registration |
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Pitfalls
on growth path
From
immaturity to e-maturity
Nuclear
tasks for the new government
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Marriage registration The
Punjab and Haryana Court has come to the rescue of several runaway couples, who were asked to bring their parents along as proof of their marriage for the registration of marriage. The law does not mandate the presence of parents for a marriage between two eligible adults of any faith. It is clear, as the court also indicated, the demand to produce parents is made by corrupt officials who wish to exploit the vulnerable runaway couples, as such hounded by family members and relatives. The procedure to get a marriage registered is simple; it does not require a lawyer. It is made complicated by the ill intentions of officials who try to extract money from the stressed couples. Courts have been flooded with petitions from deserted wives, fighting for their rights to maintenance and custody of children. And the courts were often unable to help the aggrieved women in the absence of marriage proof. It was then that the apex court made the registration of marriages of all faiths mandatory. This was done for the convenience of couples. But it boomeranged. There is also a dichotomy in the court's approach to help runaway couples, who often belong to different faiths and marry under the Special Marriage Act, 1954. Such couples are required to put their pictures on the notice board of the court for a month to invite objections before the marriage is registered. For the runaway couples, it is a trap. Very often parents or relatives raise objections, at times producing fake birth certificates to cancel the registration. While the court has shown a progressive stance in ruling the elimination of parental interference in an adult act of marriage, the implementation of the laws still rests in the hands of those who fail to come out of the rigid barriers of caste and clan. For couples trying to exercise free will in the matters of matrimony, the ruling has come as a blessing, though the ground reality is still not what they would aspire for.
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The universe never did make sense; I suspect it was built on government contract. — Robert A. Heinlein |
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Alleged shortage of labour
The poor man and the law |
Pitfalls on growth path
The
World Bank has revised its forecast about India's GDP growth rate for 2014-15 and pegged it at a realistic level of 5.5 per cent. Recently there has been some good news that may go to indicate that 5.5 per cent is indeed achievable. Industrial revival is on the cards because after declining for two consecutive months, industrial growth was at 3.4 per cent in May. Whether it is a real reversal of the sluggish trend of 2013-14 (IIP grew at 0.4 per) or just a temporary blip is hard to say. Maybe industrial growth has risen due to the huge amount of election expenditure in April, 2014. Some of it went towards buying electricity generation equipment used in electioneering. Manufacturing growth is important for job creation. The young job-seekers (around 10 million a year) expect jobs from the Modi government. Mr Modi has already promised that there will be labour-intensive manufacturing growth. But we have to wait and see what policy changes are introduced to promote it and how much impetus is given to the SME sector. The capital goods sector shrank by 14 per cent in 2013-14 which means that increasing domestic investment will be imperative for raising manufacturing growth. For rapid industrial growth, the productivity growth (total factor productivity) of industries has to rise. Unfortunately, the productivity growth has been declining in the last few years (since 2007) and that is why India is losing out to China in competitiveness. It is measured by the incremental capital output ratio which shows the amount of extra capital that is needed to produce one extra unit of output. Productivity growth depends on many things and if any of these is missing, it declines. Productivity growth depends not only on capital but also on human capital like the level of education/ skills and health of the labour force, work culture, technology, infrastructure, specially transportation, property rights and legal framework. If any of these is not growing in a steady manner, productivity growth can reach its limit and start to decline. Thus while factor inputs like labour, land and capital are important for productivity growth, it also depends on management and good governance. Productivity increases at the firm level reflect better management and organisation of people. Thus for higher GDP growth, not only is it important to spur domestic and foreign investment but also promote health, education and skills of the labour force and have efficient infrastructure. Less administrative hassles, quick policy decision-making and corruption-free governance are also equally important. Thus when the government makes big promises, it has to keep in mind what it has to do to increase productivity growth. To be able to achieve it in a short time is a formidable task for the Prime Minister. Another good sign for better GDP prospects is that export growth increased to double digits (12 per cent) in May 2014. It indicates better prospects for industrial revival through export growth. For export growth, a rise in demand coming from the Western countries is important, though India has now diversified its exports widely and the number one destination of India's exports is the Middle East. Greater trade among SAARC countries will also open up new vistas for our export growth. Even with high export growth, trade deficit is likely to widen in the near future because of the uncertainty in the political scene in Iraq and the possible adverse impact on oil prices. If there is a spurt in oil prices, then the import bill would be much higher for India than before. There may be a widening of the current account deficit on account of problems in Iraq and there is already a visible weakening of the rupee. The biggest dampener of GDP growth will be the possibility of a weak monsoon and the drought effect of El Nino on agricultural production. Agricultural growth though it contributes only 17 per cent of the GDP will be the affected and deficient monsoons may result in higher rate of unemployment in the countryside because 52 per cent of the population is dependent on agriculture. An increase in non-farm jobs will be most important. The rise in the price of food grains may be cushioned by the enormous stocks held by the government's FCI godowns. But higher vegetable, fruits, eggs, fish and meat prices will contribute to food inflation as they have done in the past. It may not be easy to control inflation (CPI) which has already shown resilience and has refused to climb down steeply. In May the WPI rose to 6.01 per cent and the CPI, though it has come down a bit, is still at 8.3 per cent. Inflation control has been the aim of the Reserve Bank of India for a long time now, yet it has not been able to tame it completely. To garner money for funding the budget deficit, which is bound to increase with the various big-ticket expenditures planned, some subsidies will no doubt be reduced. The Modi government may turn out to be more ruthless in cutting subsidies than the UPA government because it will be armed with the excuse that these did not reach the real poor in the past. Unless all states are taken on board and each state collaborates in the effort of increasing growth, slow progress may be expected. Even for cleaning up the Ganga, the various states through which the Ganga flows will have to join the effort. Similarly, in controlling crimes against women, the states will have to cooperate in punishing severely the guilty. Mr. Modi is dealing now with a hugely diverse country in which too much centralisation of power may not work. To achieve higher growth and employment, the entire nation has to cooperate so that the most important problems of slippage on the human development and infrastructural fronts are addressed first. The Prime Minister will, however, have to show leadership within the given parameters. |
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From immaturity to e-maturity When
I discovered the online public grievance portal of the Punjab government — http://publicgrievancepb.gov.in — about a year ago, I thought we had definitively advanced from 'd' to 'e', from democracy to e-democracy. It was quite a leap, I believed, recalling my early struggle with the alphabet. I had been nursing a grievance for years. I licked it for one last time — like an old wound you begin to cherish because it has become a part of your existence — with the hope that it would finally heal and close. I spent several hours drafting afresh the grievance in suitable fashion for the digital club and sent it off with a click. ‘At last, justice is now just a click away,’ the good citizen in me whistled. Now began my nervous wait for a response. I would visit the portal two or three times a day to check the status of my grievance. The tense waiting melted the lid off memories of teenage years when hope was so overpowering that I would check the letter-box several times a day. My teenage had not been very dismaying; so I assumed I could reasonably be optimistic in middle age too. Finally, after a few days, a response flashed on the status window. The grievance had been forwarded, and with a remark: 'In view of the facts stated in the complaint it is requested to get the matter inquired and take appropriate necessary action immediately.' I read and re-read the long remark. I counted the words: 23. Happiness danced in the tears welling up in my eyes. Some sensitive soul out there in cyber-sarkar had cared to answer my cry so generously, firmly and commendably. Another period of waiting began. ‘Not all souls are equally sensitive,’ I consoled myself. ‘Give them some time.’ And I often dreamed of my e-grievance migrating from PC to PC of a hierarchy of angelic public servants, each one bending solicitously over it with a physician's attentiveness, reading it sympathetically and augmenting it with a kind and strong forwarding remark. My grievance was growing like a happy pregnancy. Nine months passed. The pregnancy stopped growing. There were no more forwarding remarks. The only thing that showed signs of life and still kept growing was the extraneous flesh of my reminders. These were growing harsher and bitterer by the day. As the pregnancy did not mature, nothing was delivered. So I redrafted the grievance, added a reference to the previous one, and dispatched it — this time in hard copy through speed post as well - to the next and highest public servant in the state, the Chief Minister himself. Within minutes of clicking, the status window flashed. Happiness was beckoning again. I read the words; I counted them: 23. I read them again: not even the arrangement had changed. The pregnancy may not have delivered anything, but I have matured. I have been cured of my enchantment with ‘e’. I now understand that there are no sensitive souls in cyber-sarkar. That both sensitivity and souls out there are synthetic and programmed. That transparency is virtual, not real. And that the ‘e’ in e-governance stands not for effective governance but for deceptive effects of governance — for simulation, not for substance.
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Nuclear tasks for the new government
Though the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government brought momentum to India's civil nuclear programme, it could stride only half way through in some vital areas that the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government ought to carry forward. Any policy reversal or putting them on the back-burner, especially in respect to nuclear agreements with several countries, regulatory reform, and rationalisation of liability regime, would damage India's 'responsible state' image, concurrently plunging the ascending nuclear energy production. Nuclear vision With the civil nuclear agreement with US, the India-specific safeguards agreement with IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver in 2008 to procure enrichment and reprocessing technology and equipment (ENR), India has initiated civil nuclear cooperation with around two dozen countries and three dozen industrial houses. Currently, 21 nuclear power reactors are in operation producing around 5000 MW. Six reactors under construction are expected to generate an additional 4,800 MW, while another 33 are planned. Today nuclear energy constitutes around 3.6 per cent of the total electricity produced in the country and the vision is to install 20 GWe by 2020. Uranium supplies from Canada, France, Kazakhstan, and Russia have helped Indian reactors to operate with high capacity. Nine reactors recorded an unprecedented 97 per cent capacity factor during 2011-12. With the imported uranium from France, the Kakrapar reactors recorded 99 per cent capacity factor during 2011-12. Meanwhile, nuclear power output has increased by over 80 per cent i.e. from 18,634 million units in 2006-07 to 35,333 million units during 2013-14. The Unit 1 reactor at Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP) has reached 90 per cent of its operating capacity and 900 MW were generated by the reactor and will reach to 1,000 MW soon in the final stage. On April 19, India and Russia have signed a framework agreement for building the third and fourth units of the KNPP and the cost has worked out to Rs 33,000 crore ($5.5 billion) reportedly, lower than the expected $7 billion. An MoU has been signed in for Early Work Agreement (EWA) between Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd. (NPCIL) and Westinghouse for Mithivirdi plant in Gujarat. Meanwhile, India and France have reportedly agreed on the cost of power that will be generated by Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant (JNPP) in Maharastra — Rs 6 per unit, down from Rs 9.18 per unit quoted by the French company Areva initially. National energy mix India ultimately aims to achieve a sustainable nuclear fuel cycle using its vast thorium reserves to produce sizable energy to contribute to the national energy mix. By a mix of indigenous Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), Fast-Breeder Reactors (FBRs) and Light Water Reactors (LWRs) with foreign technical cooperation. Beyond 2032, large expansion based on FBRs and later thorium-based reactors are envisioned. The 500MW Prototype FBR (PFBR), first commercial nuclear reactor designed to generate more fuel than it burns, stationed in Kalpakkam, drives India closer towards harnessing its vast thorium reserves. However, fuelling the existing and planned PHWRs and LWRs in the interim, keeping in mind the ambitious production target, exploration of domestic uranium reserves alongside proactive investment abroad should be prioritised. Beside the Jaduguda mine in Jharkhand, if the newly discovered abundant Uranium reserve in Tummalapalli of Andhra Pradesh and Domiasat in Meghalaya is viable for exploration, India can maintain its uranium-based reactors alongside the plutonium and thorium-driven fuel cycle. Shackled within With the worldwide goodwill to partner with India in nuclear commerce, India's civil nuclear programme is at a take-off stage. The UPA government strived hard to unshackle India of the international technology embargo, but could not expedite nuclear energy expansion drive that is shackled within. Owing to pockets of resistance and non-cooperation by State governments new projects are in a hostage. With the absence of coalition compulsions, the Modi-led NDA government can swipe the nuclear baton deftly. At the outset, to garner greater social acceptance of nuclear energy, a few prevailing uncertainties need urgent attention. For example, capability of renewable energy sources to meet India's future electricity needs, cost-effectiveness of nuclear energy, and how safe and secure nuclear energy is. A comprehensive study (2011-12) by SP Sukhatme of IIT Bombay concludes that renewable energy sources if stretched to their full potential can at best contribute 36 per cent of the total need of electricity during the next six decades; but alone cannot meet the future needs, to provide a desired per capita value of 1,840 kWh/yr. The intermittent nature of solar and wind energy, required heavy base-load power for the manufacturing sector to maintain high economic growth, and mounting energy requirement of residential, commercial and transportation sector combined necessitate leveraging of India's nuclear energy industry. With fast construction timeframe, high plant load factor, long lifespan, and low fuel costs nuclear energy, even though capital intensive, is competitive. In India's case, nuclear energy is cheaper outside the coal belt and a viable option in terms of Long Range Marginal Cost (LRMC). If we take Tarapur-1and 2 experiences, it has been found to have delivered for four decades cheapest electricity, the current tariff being about Rs 1/kWh. In addition, both primary and secondary economic benefits of nuclear projects for the local, state and national level are huge. Nevertheless, each time a problem related to nuclear technology takes place anywhere, many draw baseless parallels to India's programme. In the process, the specificities and achievements of Indian nuclear projects are overlooked. India has over 400 reactor years of commercial nuclear operation without any major safety- related accident. Its nuclear plants have survived tsunami and earthquake. Undoubtedly citizens have the legitimate right to raise their concerns and genuine concerns need to be addressed by the authorities; but the fact is that the world has no longer easy energy choices. The question is "how much risk society is willing to accept to realise the promise of nuclear technology". By bridging the gap between the scientific community and the public, and bringing into light the benefits accrued over the years by the local communities around the existing nuclear facilities the authorities will be able to dispel many thriving misperceptions. Creation of a Social Acceptance Committee can be a precursor to garner greater public support and act upon their grievances in a humane manner. Regulatory reform In pursuit of bringing vitality to nuclear regulatory mechanism, the UPA government presented to the Parliament the Nuclear Safety Regulatory Authority (NSRA) Bill with recommendations of the Parliament Committee on Science & Technology and Environment, which is yet to be passed. The Bill has proposed to establish the Council of Nuclear Safety to review policies on nuclear safety, but included the Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) as a member who also heads the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) that controls nuclear plants. The new government must review the provisions of Bill to ensure independence of the regulatory mechanism (NSRA) from the promoting agency (DAE) and approve it as priority. Rationalising liability India's Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act came under serious scrutiny in the wake of the proposal to sign the first commercial civil nuclear agreement with the USA in September last year. The BJP, then in Opposition, remarked any bypassing of operator's "right of recourse" in Clause 17 of the Act as "corruption", and Manmohan Singh's 'gift to American nuclear companies'. Yet, very few realise how uncannily the liability act, that holds nuclear suppliers liable for nuclear accidents, has stymied India's nuclear energy expansion drive. Though many countries have expressed willingness for civil nuclear business with India, not a single commercial contract for the import of reactors has been signed, except the Kudankulam 3 and 4 with Russia recently. Rationalisation of India's liability regime is desirable and possible by innovative reconciliation of concerns of various stakeholders. First, by having an institutional-procedural understanding with the suppliers Indian operators can provide timely feed-back to the supplier on the wellbeing of a particular component or certify after a period of time the usage of the component that it does not suffer from a "patent or latent defect". Second, find suitable insurance to the extent to cover probable risks involved. To add predictability to suppliers' obligations, liability can be limited to a certain reasonable time frame, like guarantee and warranty period. Lastly, consider creation of an American-style corpus to which the suppliers could be asked to contribute. Though the UPA government struggled to convince Japan and Australia for nuclear cooperation, could not ink deals with finally. Australia is the largest supplier of uranium and promising to meet India's requirements. An accord with Japan is requisite for reactor import as Japanese manufacturers supply crucial components used in the American and French reactors. Also, GE and Westinghouse are owned by Japanese companies Hitachi and Toshiba. Making possible civil nuclear deals with Australia and Japan someway, and any move in pushing India's candidature for NSG would attest Modi government's nuclear diplomatic acumen. MODIfied strategy The new government has to embark on the dual challenge of maximising benefits from the understandings with global partners while taking along the domestic public to achieve greater acceptance of new nuclear projects. While carrying forward the UPA's nuclear spell in the immediate-term, capacity building of domestic industrial houses and diversification of India's nuclear industry can be planned in the long-term by implementing the joint ventures with partners like NTPC, Nalco, ONGC, Indian Railways, Indian Oil Corporation, SAIL, etc. Prime Minister Modi, having experience in hosting nuclear project in Gujarat, is expected to bring more vitality to India's nuclear energy vision. Given the employment generation and energy security potential, Paramanu justly fits into Modi's pledge for Sabka Vikas. The writer is a Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi |
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