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Reining in hate-mongers Political space |
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Divided over multi-brand retail
Karzai, Kabul and Kulu cap
Why Saudi Arabia is still vital to US interests
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Reining in hate-mongers After
forcing a defiant Mamata Banerjee to fall in line, the Election Commission has turned to two key practitioners of communal politics, Amit Shah and Azam Khan. It has barred them from holding processions, road shows, rallies and public meetings for making inflammatory speeches in Uttar Pradesh. Amit Shah is a key aide of Narendra Modi and his speeches, caught on camera, should not surprise anyone. Azam Khan, the Minister for Minority Affairs in the Samajwadi Party's government in UP, has lately earned considerable notoriety for his vicious speeches. Though the Election Commission's gag order is creditable, it is not strong enough and may not serve as a deterrent to others trying to polarise society. Both are not contesting elections. The ban may restrict their poll-related activities, but will not stop them from practising behind the scenes what they have preached in public. Here was a fit case to set an example for others. They could have been arrested or their movement confined to select areas. Seven months ago communal conflagration erupted in UP's Muzaffarnagar area. Three of those who instigated the riots were soon bailed out. They were publicly felicitated by the BJP and subsequently rewarded with the party ticket. Amit Shah is also out on bail. Should his bail not be cancelled for a second offence? He is vitiating the law and order situation in a sensitive state like UP. Azam Khan should have been dropped as a minister by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav after his attempt to tarnish the secular image of as respected an institution as the Army. The Election Commission expressed its helplessness when it pointed out that "no FIR seems to have been filed against Azam Khan" and that the UP government "is soft-pedalling in taking the required action against him". The ground reality is that there is no fear of the law among politicians. So many of them pollute society with their poisonous speeches because they know they would get away with it. Post poll, cases of violation of the code of conduct or the law are not pursued properly.
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Political space As
battle-lines are drawn for the 16th Lok Sabha election and the debate largely centres on who will be India's future Prime Minister, it is conveniently forgotten how women continue to find minimal representation. While much hue and cry is made by the political parties on the issue of women's empowerment, when it comes to the crux, all cut a sorry figure. In Punjab out of the total 50 candidates fielded by the
SAD-BJP, the Congress, the BSP and AAP for the 13 Lok Sabha seats, only six women are in the fray. A similar situation prevails in other states. What is equally perturbing is that the chosen women candidates invariably either enjoy a celebrity status or are related to political families. In fact, the visible presence of some high-profile women in politics often eclipses the real picture which is startling and dismal. It's not as if tidings have not changed at all. Since 1957 not only has the number of women candidates contesting for the Lower House increased substantially but also of those making it to the Lok Sabha. In the last general election 59 women were elected. Yet compare it to advanced countries and the marginalisation of women in Indian politics is more than evident. When it comes to parliamentary seats women's presence has at best been 11 per cent. The story is no different in state legislatures. There are examples of states where not even a single woman has been elected to the assembly. In the world's largest democracy where often women voting percentage is higher than that of men there is no reason why its political space should remain gender skewed. With trends in the world indicating more women being elected to Parliament, Indian political parties, which continue to field mostly men, must rethink their electoral strategies. Instead of being bystanders to the democratic process being run by men, women too need to come forward. Their increased participation at the grassroots level would enable them to find a fair representation with or without the Women's Reservation Bill becoming an Act.
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Thought for the Day
Don't watch the clock; do what it does. Keep going. —Sam Levenson
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THE Presidential Address which Sardar Balwant Singh delivered at the seventh Sikh Educational Conference will rank as a clear and unvarnished statement of a practical philanthropist who has done his part towards the community and is in close touch with its needs and requirements. A perusal of it shows where the community stands in the onward march of progress and what its chief needs and ideals are. They were at present running with that object in view 8 High, 17 middle and 29 Primary Schools for boys and one High or Normal, 7 Middle and 26 Primary Schools for girls which imparted education to 10,000 scholars in all. They were indebted to Sir Michael O'Dwyer's Government for substantial grants-in-aid to their various educational institutions, amounting in all to Rs. 1,36,000. The President urged the introduction of Punjabi, the mother-tongue of the Province in all Government schools on the ground that it furnished the easiest medium of instruction. The number of literates among the Sikhs still showed a low percentage. Simla municipality THE reason which the Punjab government gave for disenfranchising the rate-payers of Simla was that the people themselves were indifferent to their rights. Indians and Europeans are alike interested in disproving the official statement and both have come forward to show that they are not indifferent to their rights. The Simla House Proprietors' Association, of which Mr. R. Gomes is the Secretary, is going to enlarge the scope of its work, and with this view it contemplates altering its designation to make itself more representative of the interest of the rate-payers.
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Divided over multi-brand retail Even though Walmart and Tesco are planning to open their branches in India, the BJP manifesto declaration might create a stir among other foreign investors, in case it comes to power. Walmart has remained unfazed and has announced that it would go ahead and open 50 new branches in India which would be in the form of wholesale outlets that would start online operations to sell to small shopkeepers over the next four to five years. It already has 20 wholesale outlets in India which sell to the nation's small shopkeepers. Full foreign ownership in wholesale trade has been allowed. It is only in multi-brand retail trade that foreign ownership is restricted to 51 per cent. Retail trade is big business in India worth $500 billion. There is, however, no retail Walmart store in India. China has a huge Walmart store on the outskirts of Beijing. It has little to fear because most goods are sourced from China. In India the fear is that these retail giants would stock attractive imported goods which would offer tough competition to domestic manufacturers and retailers. Particularly hit would be small retailers who work in neighbourhood (mom and pop) shops and work on small margins. The big retailers with their deep pockets offer goods which are cheaper and better in quality in order to capture a sizeable share of the middle class market. They can wait for profits to come in later. Their entire strategy is based on increasing volume, size and scale. Once they capture a good market share, they dominate and mark up prices. A lot has been written on how global retailers would cut out middlemen in India and pay directly to farmers, and how food inflation, largely attributed to the increasing margins of middlemen, would come down. But let us not forget that Walmart is also a middleman! An efficient supply chain is important for the country, no doubt, but we can have it through domestic multi-brand retailers also where they would go for contract farming with farmers and various products would come straight from the farm to fork. The eliminated middlemen would have to find jobs and would join the ranks of the unemployed. But only big farmers would be involved in the supply chains for big retailers and 80 million or so small farmers would be left out of the loop. Even so it has been argued that the urban consumers' satisfaction is important in today's world and the average housewife welcomes the idea of washed and often chopped vegetables available in supermarkets. The attraction of Walmart is great, especially because of the Indians who have visited these stores abroad and found that they are convenient for all shopping needs. A lot of plastic, Styrofoam packaging and water are used by global retailers plus they need huge air-conditioned spaces. They also will employ educated workers and IT staff. Hence the pros and cons are equally weighty except that millions of small retailers would be out of business when big global retailers establish their outlets in India. It is their votes that are important for any party aspiring to come to power. True, in a country with around 300 million poor, the government should be wary of adding to the numbers of unemployed. Because of 90 per cent of the workforce employed in the unorganised sector, a majority are in retail trade. They source their products from small and micro enterprises which are an important segment of the manufacturing industry. If there are strict regulations that make it mandatory for multi-brand foreign retailers to source their products from SMEs, it would be helpful for the small-scale sector. Besides, small farmers are also important and their needs are colossal. They need an improvement in infrastructure and inputs. We cannot just have contract farming for big farmers and even their livelihood is not secure because if anything goes wrong, whole consignments could get rejected. Where will the farmer find an outlet for his produce in such a case? The government, on the other hand, may abdicate its responsibility for agricultural development once these big retailers take part in agri-business and attempt at improving farming techniques, storage and transportation to suit their needs. Many argue that big retailers would build air-conditioned storage spaces and have cold supply chains and thereby reduce the enormous amount of fruits and vegetables that go waste; there is also the possibility of increasing exports. But whether such backward linkages through huge investments in infrastructure would be in place is yet to be seen. In all, it makes more sense to enable domestic multi-brand retailers to become strong and see how they develop the village infrastructure and supply chains. It would be risky to usher in oligopolistic global retailers without any strings attached and allowing them to take a big slice of India's huge retail market and enfeeble our own indigenous forms of trading and manufacturing that include linkages with handicrafts and handloom sectors.
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Karzai, Kabul and Kulu cap Karzai has been nostalgic about the six years he spent in Shimla where he did graduation and MA in Political Science from Himachal Pradesh University. He was known as Hamid those days and was a frequent visitor to the Indian Coffee House. I was an AIR correspondent in Shimla and we had a common friend, Prof A R Khan, at whose residence we often met, especially on Eid celebrations. The owner of the Regal Cinema, Shayam Khanna, was Karzai's closest friend, who along with his wife and children died in a road accident on the Shimla-Kalka Highway later and I was the one to break the news to Karzai. After assuming the office of President in 2004, Karzai addressed the media at his Arg Palace. It was 24th December and it happened to be Karzai's birthday. On entering the hall he greeted me with "Sardarji Sat Sri Akal". After four-five questions from mediapersons, he invited me to ask my question. I stood up and said, "Congrats Mr President and before asking my question, I must say many happy returns of the day to you". Karzai just said:"Thank you". He probably thought that I was greeting him on the formation of his Cabinet. Afghans do not celebrate their birthdays and even his close friends and Secretariat staff did not know that it was his birthday. I again said, "Mr. Hamid Karzai, I wish you many many happy returns of the day, today being your birthday". He was surprised and exclaimed, "Oh, you remember my birthday! I must thank you". I had taken a Kulu cap in my pocket as the security at the palace would not allow any gifts into the Presidential Palace. I took out the cap and said, "I would like to present this cap to you as a token of love and affection from all Shimlawalas. But I would not like to jump the protocol". Security would not allow anybody near the President. He said, "Come on, there is no protocol for you". I crossed over to him and presented the Kulu cap to him. He immediately removed his Afghani Karakul cap and wore the Himachali cap and hugged me". Then he told the media that this Himachali cap is presented to a person as a token of honour. "It is quite warm and I used to wear it in Shimla. I feel honoured", he said. After the press conference , Karzai walked over to me asked about his friends in Shimla. All these proceedings were telecast live on Kabul TV and I almost became a celebrity among Afghan residents. I had to call for more Kulu caps from Delhi to present to my Afghan friends.
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Why Saudi Arabia is still vital to US interests The
speed of events in the Middle East is faster than can be absorbed by an increasingly complex strategic environment. The apparent cooling of US interest in the region, emanating from perceived failure of the Arab Spring, improving potential of control over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and the steadily declining energy ties between US and the Saudi Arabia, among many other issues appears to create a conflict of interests for the US, and hence, the necessity to restore balance. This is all the more important in view of the emerging confidence of Russia and its ability to punch above its weight in mutual international standoffs. President Obama’s second visit to Saudi Arabia during his presidency is obviously far more important than his first which preceded his visit to Egypt in 2009 for what appeared then as a path-breaking outreach to the Islamic world. Smitten first by the events in Syria which saw US hand over diplomatic advantage to Russia and then by the recent surprise acts by Russia in Ukraine, the US is obviously in the process of a major reconsideration of its Middle East policy. Central to its considerations is the feasibility of losing the advantage of a long-standing strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia which was based upon the oil for security equation. Progressively, over the past 10 years or so, US-Saudi ties have weakened leading to perceptible differences about commonality of the strategic aim. The most important security consideration for Saudi Arabia is its long-standing fear of Iran and the Shia power that emanates from it. The onset of this current standoff can be traced back to 2003 and the handling of post-Gulf War II scenario in Iraq, which saw the emergence of Shia dominance. The Saudis always feared that the Shia linkages were stronger than the pan-Arab loyalties of Iraq and that it was Iran which had achieved strategic gain because of the Shia revival in Baghdad. The subsequent emergence of the strength of the Shia Hizbullah in Lebanon, once again backed by Iran, did not bring any comfort level to the Saudi leadership. What, however, really got the goat of the Saudis was the rapid pace at which the Arab Spring emerged in the Middle East ostensibly with the US as a passive bystander hoping for the emergence of greater liberal democratic trends in the Arab world. Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution followed by Egypt’s White Lily Revolution and preceded by Lebanon’s Cedar Revolution sent ominous signals to the Saudis; the rising turbulence in Bahrain and Yemen did not provide any succour either. The Saudis were peeved particularly with the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak and the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood. A little-known fact about Middle East politics has been the long-standing abhorrence with which the Saudi monarchy has looked upon the Muslim Brotherhood. This stems from the basic difference whereby the monarchy has always kept the Saudi clergy at bay by allowing it full control over the mosques but no interference in core political issues. The Muslim Brotherhood on the other hand essentially follows the Islamic traditions of combining religion and politics, the church and the state. The Saudis expected the US to back the Egyptian military because of the long-standing relationship the two enjoyed. The US, however, followed its own convictions of its future interests in diluting the power of dictatorships all over the Middle East. The suspension of US military aid to Egypt around the same time as the announced Saudi-UAE $12 billion aid to Egypt only worsened relations. While US-Egypt relations appear to be on the mend the recent death sentence meted out to 500 Muslim Brotherhood activists by an Egyptian court will surely provide yet another irritant to the US-Saudi relationship.
The US is likely to actively pressurise the Egyptian leadership to withdraw this sentence in keeping with its avowed campaign for human rights in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia taking an opposite view after having declared the Brotherhood a terrorist organisation. A complex case The situation is becoming even more complex with three GCC countries — UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, withdrawing their ambassadors from Qatar over long-standing regional differences but triggered by Qatar's continued support to the Muslim Brotherhood. The US has major military bases in Qatar. The Syrian imbroglio and the continuing reluctance of the US to employ hard power to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions is yet another element. While the Saudis were keen that the US employs military means to enable regime change in Syria once the red line of use of chemical weapons had been crossed, they failed to appreciate the mood in the US. Stuck in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan for more than 11 years, the US displayed its tired reluctance to push its interests and succumbed to actions many notches lower against both Iran and Syria. The Saudis also viewed this as a balancing act by the US to open up the feasibility of retrieving some semblance of a US-Iran relationship to control nuclear proliferation in the region. The withdrawal from the UNSC seat by Saudi Arabia was apparently a protest against this. For Saudi Arabia, the process for a negotiated settlement in Syria must not commence from a position of weakness. Hence, the recent reported steps by it to provision arms to the rebels making use of the strong relationship it enjoys with Pakistan. The Saudis have also introduced an element of psychological warfare into the situation by possible leaks of their intent to partner Pakistan in providing the rebels in Syria a possible nuclear handle. For the US, the strengthening of the Syrian rebels, less the nuclear handle, may play to its interest but will further exacerbate the situation on ground with Iran with possibly Russia stepping on the gas thus upsetting the diplomatic parleys underway to control Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Will the US, therefore, look towards short-term gains by supporting the Saudi stance on Syria or consider a more benign response to allow diplomacy a greater chance in its relationship with Iran. For President Obama, this is a difficult decision considering the fallout of the Ukraine encounter which would have emboldened Russia to continue its support to Iran. Back home, he would be under severe criticism for the manner in which US interests appear to have been diluted. The balancing act The Obama visit must, therefore, be seen to be a balancing act to cut losses by greater positing to advantage through existing relationships in the Middle East. Perhaps, the time is yet not ripe for bold initiatives to change the narrative in the Middle East given the multiple dynamics simultaneously in play. Traditionally, the Middle East has always been associated primarily with the Israeli-Palestinian discord. The fact that it has not even been mentioned in this assessment so far proves how other factors have hijacked the narrative. Yet, no security assessment of the Middle East can ever be complete without reference to this issue and the position of Israel. For Israel, it is all about existential threats emanating from Iran and its surrogates in the region. Weakening this axis is the common aim of both Israel and the Saudis even as the US looks for ways of bringing Iran out of the diplomatic closet. The last thing the US would want is obstacles in its way through a collaborative approach by Israel and Saudi Arabia. Similarly, a weaker Egypt only further emboldens Israel in its stance against Iran. The US needs to balance this flank too as it has an effect on the overall Israel- Palestinian peace process. Last, but not the least, comprehensive reviews of the Middle East need to take into account the status of the global war on terror in the region. The Al-Qaida’s resurgence in Ramadi and Fallujah in Iraq, along with its continuing activism in Syria and Yemen, gives no confidence to the US. At such a time, it is better to take stock of what is in hand and avoid dilution of partnerships, however rocky they may appear. On a scale of threats, those in existence match the ones on the horizon; addressing the existing ones may well assist in diluting and warding those of the future. Perhaps, the US strategic planners may have just realised this and perceived that the events of the last few months do not play out to their interests and a serious review is necessary. The Obama visit to Saudi Arabia could, therefore, just have been that — a serious review. The next few weeks should reveal what the actual outcome of the visit would have for the Middle East and the rest of the world. — The writer is a former Corps Commander of Srinagar-based 15 Corps
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