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Oped
— Environment

EDITORIALS

Global fever
Climate change is sure disaster, denial won't avert it
T
he climate change report released by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Monday brings home for the fifth time since 1990 the point that global warming is for real and a threat to life as we know it. Only this time the warning has been worded rather alarmingly. The reason for that is the apparent deafness the previous reports have been met with around the world, India included. The science is simple: Life - whether plant, animal or human — evolved under a given set of climatic and environmental conditions.

Treason, General
Musharraf's comeuppance in court
"N
ot guilty”, said a defiant Gen Pervez Musharraf on Monday to a court where he had been summoned on the charges that in 2007 he subverted Pakistan's Constitution. Yet the court indicted him on five counts even as he mounted an impassioned defence of his rule. The General, who had assumed the reins of power in the country in 1999, maintained that he brought prosperity to Pakistan and alluded to his long service in the Pakistani Army, but to no avail.



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March 27, 2014
BCCI clean-up
March 26, 2014
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Stalwarts sally forth
March 24, 2014
Wrong to tell Russia what it can’t do
March 23, 2014
Strongman Modi
March 22, 2014


On this day...100 years ago


Lahore, Thursday, April 2, 1914
Pure milk supply
NOTWITHSTANDING the frequency with which the question of pure milk supply in large Indian towns is being raised, no satisfactory attempt is made to remedy the evil complained of. Slipshod enquiries either by municipalities or by others have been made and a report is drawn up and shelved. In the mean time the scarcity of pure milk continues and the milk vender finds additional means of adulterating milk. For instance, it has never been patiently enquired with what the milk man feeds his cows in towns and whether very objectionable materials are not used.

ARTICLE

The voter faces a dilemma
Congress associated with scams; BJP is no better
Kuldip Nayar
F
or some years, the activists from India have been trying to persuade Pakistan to pay homage to Bhagat Singh, Rajguru and Sukhdev who went to the gallows in the thirties to strengthen the struggle for freedom. The change has come about in Pakistan. There was a candle-light vigil at Lahore on March 23, the day Bhagat Singh was hanged, along with his two comrades. The Pakistan media also devoted a programme to the memory of Bhagat Singh.

MIDDLE

All my yesterdays
Harish Dhillon
I
was thirteen years old and I returned home for the long winter vacation to find that my grandfather had come to live with us on a permanent basis. I knew him as a man of extreme generosity and I was, initially, thrilled that he was with us.

OPEDEnvironment

Climate: A bleak picture of war, famine
Steve Connor
T
he negative effects of climate change are already beginning to be felt in every part of the world and yet countries are ill-prepared for the potentially immense impacts on food security, water supplies and human health, a major report has concluded.

2013 saw strongest cyclones
N
o single weather event can prove or disprove climate change, but in its review of 2013 the world’s leading meteorological authority suggests that many of last year’s weather extremes are likely to have been heavily influenced by rising global temperatures.

Global warming impacts flagged by IPCC
Food security
Crop yields have increased in general over recent decades but the rate of improvement would have been even faster had it not been for climate change. The signature of rising temperatures and heat stress are already showing on yield of wheat and maize, the report says. All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, including food access, utilisation and price stability,” it says.





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EDITORIALS

Global fever
Climate change is sure disaster, denial won't avert it

The climate change report released by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Monday brings home for the fifth time since 1990 the point that global warming is for real and a threat to life as we know it. Only this time the warning has been worded rather alarmingly. The reason for that is the apparent deafness the previous reports have been met with around the world, India included. The science is simple: Life - whether plant, animal or human — evolved under a given set of climatic and environmental conditions. Change the temperature by 2°C, and all weather systems — rain, seasons, glaciers, polar ice banks, oceanic currents — go haywire. That means the very foundation upon which life is based changes. The possible temperature increase by 2100 could be as high as 4°C.

We may debate the disaster projections of the report, but the changes are already upon us. Glaciers, which are banks of water for our rivers, are disappearing by the year across the entire Himalayan range. The extreme weather events this winter in India as well as Europe and North America were most likely related to climate change. Cropping patterns will change, cities will become distinctly hotter from temperature rise as well as heat generated within, coastlines will be lost along with ports and other infrastructure, geographical spread of diseases could change. Practically, everything from food security to transport, industry and economy is set to be hit. The life-sapping rise in the mercury is without noise or drama, but relentless. The consequences would be both dramatic and violent.

The two buzzwords emerging from this report are mitigation and adaptation. Man has to learn to live with less energy consumption and find more efficient ways of producing energy. Energy efficiency means heavy costs on research and industrial retrofit, which all governments will have to accept. Innovations like solar power, however, can dramatically change the final outcomes in a positive way. For adaptation, agriculture will need the greatest attention in India. The way crops are grown and where they are grown is set to change. It is time to relearn how we live.

Top

Treason, General
Musharraf's comeuppance in court

"Not guilty”, said a defiant Gen Pervez Musharraf on Monday to a court where he had been summoned on the charges that in 2007 he subverted Pakistan's Constitution. Yet the court indicted him on five counts even as he mounted an impassioned defence of his rule. The General, who had assumed the reins of power in the country in 1999, maintained that he brought prosperity to Pakistan and alluded to his long service in the Pakistani Army, but to no avail. The former Army Chief and dictator is the highest-ranking officer to appear in court before a judge and Monday was certainly not his day.

However, Pakistani lawmakers and others celebrated the comeuppance of a person who had dismissed Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry and other Supreme Court judges in 2007 and run roughshod over other institutions. It was also seen as a moment when the executive and judicial authority was asserted over the military, which has long dominated the power structure in Pakistan, even as several lawmakers recorded their appreciation and love for the Army during their speeches in the National Assembly.

Musharraf is now at the mercy of the man he once deposed. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will have to take a call on removing Musharraf's name from the Exit Control List. Musharraf has requested for permission to leave Pakistan and tend to his ailing mother as well as for his treatment abroad. However, this is not a simple request, and Nawaz Sharif will have to take various factors into consideration before taking a decision. For many observers, the indictment of a former General is a welcome sign of return to law, not just order that military always claimed to impose on Pakistan. Pakistan has to grapple with many problems, including a worsening internal security scenario. The judiciary of Pakistan has now provided hope that even the once mighty can be put in the dock and made answerable for their actions. This is no mean achievement.

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Thought for the Day

Here cometh April again, and as far as I can see the world hath more fools in it than ever. — Charles Lamb

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On this day...100 years ago



Lahore, Thursday, April 2, 1914

Pure milk supply

NOTWITHSTANDING the frequency with which the question of pure milk supply in large Indian towns is being raised, no satisfactory attempt is made to remedy the evil complained of. Slipshod enquiries either by municipalities or by others have been made and a report is drawn up and shelved. In the mean time the scarcity of pure milk continues and the milk vender finds additional means of adulterating milk. For instance, it has never been patiently enquired with what the milk man feeds his cows in towns and whether very objectionable materials are not used. There is no wonder that the importation of tinned milk from foreign countries is increasing under these circumstances. In 1908 only 7 million lbs. were imported. Next year it increased to 9 million lbs.; in 1911, it was 9 ¾ millions; in 1912, 11 ¼ millions and in 1913, 12 ¾ million lbs. worth Rs. 70 lakhs. Nevertheless our local authorities have not yet attempted to create facilities for the starting of municipal dairies.

Senate meeting

AN important meeting of the Senate of the Punjab University was held on Tuesday, the 31st March with the Vice-Chancellor Rev. Dr. Ewing in the chair. The annual budget was the chief item for consideration and furnished the occasion for several important motions which evoked lively discussion, the meeting lasting for an hour and a quarter. The first motion brought before the Senate related to the grant of bonus to the office establishment. Mr. Shiv Dyal, M.A., urged that there was no reason for placing the employees of the University on a different footing from those of Government offices, but the motion fell through. Mr. Gopal Chand moved that the item of Rs. 2,000 for hill expenses of the University office be disallowed on the ground that the move to Simla was unnecessary and uncalled for. This elicited considerable discussion, Messrs Gopal Chand, R.S. Ruchi Ram, Dhanpat Rai Durga Das and Fazl Hussain being the speakers against the move to Simla and Mr. Wathen and the Registrar in its support.

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ARTICLE

The voter faces a dilemma
Congress associated with scams; BJP is no better
Kuldip Nayar

For some years, the activists from India have been trying to persuade Pakistan to pay homage to Bhagat Singh, Rajguru and Sukhdev who went to the gallows in the thirties to strengthen the struggle for freedom. The change has come about in Pakistan. There was a candle-light vigil at Lahore on March 23, the day Bhagat Singh was hanged, along with his two comrades. The Pakistan media also devoted a programme to the memory of Bhagat Singh.

This is a bold defiance of Jammat-e-Islami, which considers every non-Muslim a "kafir". I have no doubt that one day, both India and Pakistan, would jointly observe the martyrdom of Bhagat Singh and his comrades.

Regretfully, India took no notice of the sacrifice by the three. The media was conspicuous by its silence. There was no meeting held in their memory, much less the lighting of candles. True, the Indian society has ousted the value system. But I had never imagined that even the memory of those who made today's democratic polity possible would get no mention.

One other development which is beyond the realm of my conjecture is the bickering in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), known for its cohesion and solidarity. When even a stalwart like Jaswant Singh, who headed finance and foreign affairs in the BJP government, is denied the ticket from his old constituency, Barmer, there is something wrong with the party. Jawant Singh broke down before TV cameras. He has accused the 'outsiders' without mentioning their name for his humiliation. It is obvious that he is talking about the Rashtriya Swyamsewak Sangh (RSS), which is directly taking part in politics instead of staying in the background and using the BJP as an instrument.

The RSS reportedly feels that the BJP, particularly its leadership, has compromised with the ideology of Hindutava. This explains why RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat was present at the Central election committee meeting selecting the party's candidates.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi fits into the framework the RSS has in view. He refuses to say 'sorry' for the killing of Muslims in his state in 2002. And he proudly flaunts 'Hindu nationalism' instead of Indian nationalism. Development which Modi emphasises is a state subject. This is the reason why the Planning Commission calls for the meeting of chief ministers to the National Development Council, which gives approval to the five-year plans.

There is no Modi wave. People want a change from the Congress, associated with scams and mis-governance. They want an alternative. The BJP is no better and its rule is remembered by the scandals at that time. I feel dismayed when even liberals are taken in by the propaganda that the country needs a national leader to set things right. Indira Gandhi also raised the "Garibi Hatao" slogan and imposed the Emergency to suspend even the Constitution. India is a federal polity and has no place for the presidential system of rule.

I am amused over the remark that the coming Lok Sabha election is a contest between corruption and communalism. Both are evil. How does it matter if a candidate is corrupt or communal? I believe that the distinction is a brainwave of some candidates who are corrupt and want to hide their sins by mouthing the slogan of pluralism.

However, the entire discussion is of little consequence because the two main parties, the Congress and the BJP, have fielded tainted and extremist candidates. (Thirty per cent of the candidates have a criminal record.) The Congress is more to blame because its ideology is that of secularism. The BJP makes no bones about the pro-Hindu stance since it wants to polarise society. Congress president Sonia Gandhi is right when she says that the BJP is sowing the seeds of poison.

The Congress, with Rahul Gandhi as its leader, may claim to be pluralist in its outlook. But this does not condone the numerous communal riots during Congress rule in the country on the one hand and the corrupt deals in which the party has been involved in its 10-year rule on the other. Many skeletons have tumbled out of the cupboard. Many more may come out if and when a non-Congress government assumes power at the Centre.

A new phenomenon has emerged in the shape of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which once evoked idealism and provided a non-Congress and non-BJP alternative. But the party is losing sheen because it lacks ideology and projects only its leader, Arvind Kejriwal. Too much authority is concentrated in him and he flaunts it.

Which party it chooses is a dilemma before an ordinary voter. With Modi, there is every chance of an autocratic country, although the growth-oriented India would be more centrally controlled and less democratic. A slight dip in his popularity graph indicates that more and more people are seeing through the façade of progress Modi has created.

When I listen to Rahul Gandhi I vainly seek direction. He has improved in the last few weeks. But the nation cannot be entrusted to him. Perhaps, he would have matured by the general election in 2019. At present he is trying to please everybody. He too is lacking ideological clarity, more so in the foreign policy field.

The challenge before the nation is lack of leadership and governance. The Congress has been found wanting in both. The party has wasted the 10 years of its governance. Even now the Congress is miles away from the leadership it provided till the seventies. Probably, the initial thrust was because of the people who had gone through the fire of national movement. They followed a value system. What is the Congress today except the people who want power by hook or by crook? Even their body language reflects arrogance.

The party has committed the unpardonable sin of linking politics with the state. When ministers are on the take, why shouldn't under-paid government officials do likewise? No doubt, the BJP has come to occupy more space than the Congress. When some top officials join the party after retirement or by resigning from service, there has to be a serious study to know why it is so. I think such officials were inclined towards the BJP philosophy even when they were in service.

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MIDDLE

All my yesterdays
Harish Dhillon

I was thirteen years old and I returned home for the long winter vacation to find that my grandfather had come to live with us on a permanent basis. I knew him as a man of extreme generosity and I was, initially, thrilled that he was with us.

At the end of three months, though his generosity remained unimpeachable, I was infuriated by his presence. He would talk endlessly, and I, brought up to be polite to my elders, no matter what, would be compelled to listen to his endless rambling. His monologues were all about his experiences and his achievements. He would forget his story in the middle and start all over, only to forget at the very same point again. He would repeat the same stories over and over again till I wanted to scream. He would never let me get in a word edgeways.

As the years passed and I entered adulthood, I realised that what I had regarded as the peculiar behaviour of my grandfather was fairly common amongst old people. I found, first other people's grandparents and then parents' and uncles and aunts, behaving exactly the same way as my grandfather had done. Because I had now learnt to escape from the tyranny of their monologues, I no longer found them infuriating — I regarded them now with a tolerant, often affectionate amusement.

At the same time I vowed, each time I experienced this behaviour that I would never let myself behave like this. I would retreat into a monastery, when my time came, rather than become a source of anger or amusement.

But at the age of 72, I find myself behaving exactly the way my grandfather did. I ramble on and on about my past, I force my monologues on unwilling listeners. I forget what I started out to say and I repeat myself.

In saner moments I try to analyse the reasons for my behaviour. I tell myself that having been a teacher for 47 years and head of an institution for 21, I cannot help holding forth and pontificating, even when it is to an audience of one. But I know that this explanation is a weak and facile one. The real explanation for my behaviour and the behaviour of other old people is not so simple.

The only real joy in life is the hope that tomorrow holds. But with darkness gathering swiftly around us, there are no tomorrows and no hope. All we have is our yesterdays and it is to these that we turn. We talk endlessly about our achievements, real or imaginary, in order to justify our lives -- to convince ourselves and others that our lives had a purpose, that they were lives well lived. And this justification needs to be validated by a witness.

So next time you hear an old man rambling on and on, bear with him. The memory of his yesterdays and their constant reiteration is as necessary to him as the dreaming of dreams of tomorrow is for you.

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OPED — Environment

Climate: A bleak picture of war, famine
Steve Connor

Scientists say there is still time to mitigate the worst effects by cutting greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable energy sources.
Scientists say there is still time to mitigate the worst effects by cutting greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable energy sources. AFP

The negative effects of climate change are already beginning to be felt in every part of the world and yet countries are ill-prepared for the potentially immense impacts on food security, water supplies and human health, a major report has concluded.

In the most comprehensive study yet into the effects of rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that global warming could undermine economic growth and increase poverty.

Greenhouse gases
Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly the burning of fossil fuels – have released sufficient quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to affect the global climate. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since pre-industrial times.
Weather extremes – such as heavy rains, floods, and disasters endanger health as well as destroy property and livelihoods. Approximately 6,00,000 deaths occurred worldwide as a result of weather-related natural disasters in the 1990s, some 95% of which took place in developing countries.
Rising sea levels – another outcome of global warming – increase the risk of coastal flooding, and could cause population displacement. More than half of the world’s population now lives within 60 km of shorelines.

Scientists identified Britain as one of the countries most at risk from some of the more immediate negative effects of climate change, with the UK and northern Europe warned to expect increased coastal and inland flooding, heatwaves and droughts.

The IPCC found that these unwanted impacts have already extended beyond any potential benefits of rising temperatures and that they will worsen if global-average temperatures continue to rise by the expected lower limit of 2°C by 2100 — and will become potentially catastrophic if temperatures rise higher than 4°C.

In a blunt and often pessimistic assessment of climate-change impacts — the fifth assessment since 1990 — the IPCC scientists give a stark warning about what the world should expect if global temperatures continue to rise as predicted without mitigation or adaptation.

“In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans,” says the report “Climate Change 2014 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, formally released on Monday by the IPCC after a final editorial meeting in Yokohama, Japan.

More poverty

“Throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hot spots of hunger,” the report states.

Scientists in Britain said it was the clearest warning yet of what could happen if the world continues to prevaricate over cuts in emissions. “Climate change is happening, there are big risks for everyone and no place in the world is immune from them,” said Professor Neil Adger of Exeter University, one of the many lead authors of the report.

Nearly 2,000 experts from around the world contributed to the report, written by 436 authors and edited by 309 lead authors and review editors of the IPCC’s working group II. It was by far the most detailed investigation to date of the global impacts of climate change — extending from oceans to mountains and from the poles to the equator.

Christopher Field, of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology in California and co-chair of working group II, said the observed impacts of climate change were already widespread and that “we’re not talking about hypothetical events”.

False hope of benefits

The much-touted benefits of climate change — such as the ability to grow some crops such as vineyards at higher northerly latitudes — dwindle into insignificance compared to the enormous challenges produced by the much bigger downsides of a warmer and more stressed world, the report suggests.

“It is true we can’t find many benefits of climate change and I believe it’s because there aren’t many benefits,” Dr Field said. “There are a few places where there are a few benefits of warming but there are many other places where there are widespread negative impacts,” he said.

The evidence for climate-change impacts is the strongest and most comprehensive for natural systems, such as melting mountain glaciers and polar ice, and the earlier and earlier signs of spring. However, impacts on human systems, such as a rise in certain tropical diseases, can also be attributed to climate change.

“We live in an era of man-made climate change. In many cases, we are not prepared for the climate-related risks that we already face,” said Vicente Barros, co-chair of the IPCC Working Group II.

There’s still time

Scientists said that the messages about the threat posed by climate change in the 21st century have never been clearer but there is still time to mitigate the worst effects by cutting greenhouse gas emissions with sustainable energy sources as well as to adapt to the expected changes with technological improvements.

Professor Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, said that the study was not “just another report” but the scientific consensus reached by hundreds of scientists.

“The human influence on climate change is clear. The atmosphere and oceans are warming, the snow cover is shrinking, the Arctic sea ice is melting, sea levels are rising, the oceans are acidifying, some extreme weather events are on the rise, ecosystems and natural habitats will be upset. Climate change threatens food security and world economies," Professor Le Quere said.

Meat and cheese may have to be off the menu if there is to be any hope of hitting climate change targets.

A separate study says cutting greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and transport will not be enough on its own to hold down the global temperature rise.

The research indicates it will also be necessary to slash emissions from agriculture — meaning curbing meat and dairy consumption. Without such action, nitrous oxide emissions from fields and methane from livestock may double by 2070, making it impossible to meet the UN target.

The lead scientist, Dr Fredrik Hedenus of Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden, said: “We have shown that reducing meat and dairy consumption is key to bringing agricultural climate pollution down to safe levels.”

— By arrangement with The Independent

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2013 saw strongest cyclones

No single weather event can prove or disprove climate change, but in its review of 2013 the world’s leading meteorological authority suggests that many of last year’s weather extremes are likely to have been heavily influenced by rising global temperatures.

In some ways 2013 was a typical year for the global weather. Heatwaves, cold snaps, violent storms, droughts and floods all played their part in shaping 2013 — as they do every year — but there is growing evidence that human activities are making weather extremes more frequent or extreme, the World Meteorological Authority has concluded.

Some of the strongest tropical cyclones to hit land were seen in 2013, notably Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated parts of the central Philippines, and Cyclone Phailin, the second strongest tropical cyclone to strike India since modern records began, resulting in the evacuation of 1.1 million people from coastal areas.

Australia and Argentina sweltered under record or near-record temperatures in the southern hemisphere, while a “blocked” jet stream in the northern hemisphere – possibly influenced by the dramatic melting of the sea ice in the Arctic – brought a bitterly cold spring to Britain and heavy rainfall and floods to central Europe.

“Many of the extreme events of 2013 were consistent with what we would expect as a result of human-induced climate change,” said Michel Jarraud the secretary-general of the WMO, a United Nations body.

The WMO’s annual assessment found that 2013 was the sixth warmest year on record — tied with 2007 — and that there was no let-up in global warming. As many as 13 of the 14 warmest years have occurred since 2000 and each of the last three decades have been warmer than the previous one, with the decade 2001-2010 being the warmest on record, the WMO said.

“There is no standstill in global warming. The warming of our oceans has accelerated, and at lower depths. More than 90 per cent of the excess energy trapped by greenhouse gases is stored in the oceans,” Dr Jarraud said.

“Levels of these greenhouse gases are at record levels, meaning that our atmosphere and oceans will continue to warm for centuries to come. The laws of physics are non-negotiable,” he warned. Although it is not possible to link any single event directly to global warming, a scientific analysis of the record heat-wave experienced in Australia comes very close to pinning the blame on human activities, the WMO said.

Surface air temperatures in Australia in the summer of 2012-2013 were the hottest since national records began in 1910. Later in 2013, new national 12-month temperature records were set in three consecutive months – for the periods ending August, September and October – which this was finally topped by a new calendar-year record for the whole of 2013.

— The Independent

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Global warming impacts flagged by IPCC

Food security

Farming and cattle are among the lead culprits in producing greenhouse gases.
Farming and cattle are among the lead culprits in producing greenhouse gases.

Crop yields have increased in general over recent decades but the rate of improvement would have been even faster had it not been for climate change. The signature of rising temperatures and heat stress are already showing on yield of wheat and maize, the report says. All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change, including food access, utilisation and price stability,” it says.

Freshwater supplies

As global temperature rises, so does the fraction of the human population that are affected by either water scarcity or river flooding. “Climate change over the 21st century is projected to reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions,” the IPCC says.

Loss of species

The risk of plant and animal extinctions increases under all climate change scenarios, but they get worse with higher temperatures. Loss of trees and forest dieback will be a particular problem in a warmer world, the report says. “A large fraction of both terrestrial and freshwater species face increased extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century, especially as climate change interacts with other stressors such as habitat modification, over-exploitation, pollution and invasive species,” it says.

Ocean acidification

Coral reefs and shelled marine creatures, especially the smaller animals at the base of the marine food chain, are at special risk of rising carbon dioxide concentrations, which are causing the oceans to become more acidic and less alkaline. This in turn will affect human populations that rely on sea fish as a food source.

Global economy

Economic losses due to climate change are difficult to assess and many past estimates have not taken into account the catastrophic changes that could result from the climate passing a “tipping point”. Losses, however, are more likely than not to be greater, rather than smaller, than an estimated range of between 0.2 and 2 per cent of global income loss due to a temperature rise of about 2°C.

Human security

Climate change can indirectly increase the risk of violent conflicts, such as civil wars, by amplifying the well-documented “drivers” such as poverty and economic shocks. Climate change will also increase the risk of unplanned displacement of people and a change in migration patterns, the report says.

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