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Baser notes of
discourse Make hay |
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Will India give
Modi 60 months?
‘Ladies Sangeet’
in Chandigarh
The security
imperatives for the next PM
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Make hay When Bob Marley sang “Sun is shining”, clearly he wasn't thinking of India. But today Indians blessed with the sun shining for a major part of the year need to be reminded how they should make hay while it is shining bright, literally and perhaps figuratively too. Indians might worship the sun god, they continue to deny and escape its presence in everyday life. What else could explain the fact that a staggering proportion of the country's population i.e. 84 per cent stands at a risk of vitamin D deficiency, also known as the sunshine vitamin. The main reason for low Vitamin D levels is obviously the changing lifestyle. More and more people are being closeted behind the doors, working longer hours and shunning outdoor activities. Add to it the Indian obsession with fair complexion and even those who dare to step out in the sun drape themselves from head to toe. The irony, however, is that the fair-skinned people need a lesser exposure of sunlight than those with darker skin tones for a fair share of Vitamin D. Indians' aversion to sunlight would have been laughable had the consequences been not so serious. Vitamin D deficiency exposes people to many health risks and can adversely affect bones, lead to joint pains, muscle weakness and cardiovascular disorders. Diseases like rickets or osteomalacia are known to be linked to Vitamin D deficiency. Low levels of the vitamin can also cause cognitive impairment in older adults, severe asthma in children and even cancer. Going vegan might be the latest fad, vegetarians need to be doubly cautious. For most of the natural sources of Vitamin D are animal-based. Indeed, in a country where being vegetarian has religious implications, no one can be forced otherwise. Yet regular Vitamin D tests and constant awareness drives can apprise people of the bone-chilling effects of lack of sunshine. Grab your sundowner by all means but do not miss out your place under the sun.
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Thought for the Day
'Do you pray for the senators, Dr. Hale?' No, I look at the senators and I pray for the country.
— Edward Everett Hale
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Reopening of a closed liqour shop
ON the 17th March, the Hon'ble Sir Fazulbhoy Currimbhoy of Bombay asked a question in the Imperial Legislative Council about the circumstances under which a closed liquor shop was reopened near Poona. He referred to a note in the Tribune of the Ist January 1914 in which we ventured to point out that the reopening of the Poona shop was contrary to the declaration that the Government was pursuing the policy of subordinating revenue considerations to those of temperance. In that note, we also alluded to the reply given by His Excellency the Viceroy to the Temperance Deputation at Calcutta in which His Excellency reaffirmed the Government policy of subordinating revenue considerations to those of temperance. Apparently there was a conflict between precept and practice as indicated by the Poona example and the question asked by the Hon'ble Sir Fazulbhoy Currimbhoy was intended to elicit the Government explanation thereon. The Sikh Educational Conference
SARDAR Balwant Singh Sahib, Rais, of Butala in the district of Gujranwala, has been elected President of the seventh Sikh Educational Conference which is to be held at Jullundur on the 10th, 11th and 12th April. Sardar Balwant Singh comes from a well-known Khatri family of Gujranwala and as an Extra Assistant Commissioner who had worked at Sialkot, Shahpur, Mianwali, Multan, Jullundur, Ferozpore, Rohtak, Ambala and other places, his name must be quite familiar to the people. He is about 64 years age and retired from service four or five years ago. But his best title to the gratitude of his community lies in the fact that some years ago the Sardar Sahib endowed property worth a lakh of rupees to provide a technical scholarship of Rs. 200 per month for study abroad which was rewarded to a promising Sikh graduate.
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Will India give Modi 60 months?
The
general election of 2014 for electing 543 members of the 16th Lok Sabha will take place between April 7 and May 12, 2014 in nine phases in which 81.45 crore voters will exercise their options. This election is the largest in the world. It has been estimated that the election will cost the exchequer Rs 3,500 crore, while the political parties are expected to spend about Rs 30,500 crore. The counting for the 543 constituencies will take place on May 16 and by the evening on that day the shape of the new Lok Sabha and its party-wise composition will be known. The tenure of the UPA-II Government lapses on May 31 and the new government will have to be in office by June 1. The successful party or coalition will have to secure the minimum of 272 seats. It has been forecast that the BJP-led NDA will secure 229 seats while the Congress-led UPA will have 126 seats. The BJP itself is expected to secure 195 seats, while the Congress may have to be content with 106 seats. The NDA will require another 45 seats to pass the half-way mark. It is expected that the NDA may able to secure the support of the AIADMK (29 seats) and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (17 seats), which may take the NDA strength to 275 seats, comfortably above the half-way mark. In a discussion held recently by a leading TV channel several panelists debated the possible poll figures and the formation of government. Doubts were expressed by certain senior journalists that Narendra Modi would have problems in securing the last-mile acceptability. There was another view that once Modi formed a government several marginal groups would join even if they had some reservations on certain aspects of the agenda of the BJP. The discussion then focused on the longevity of the Modi government. Doubts were expressed whether the Modi government would give up the Hindutva concept for the sake of emerging as a liberal, all-inclusive government on the model of the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. Yet another serious question is if the BJP government would give up the idea of building the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya and thereby put an end to the most divisive issue among the people of central India. Even during the phase of election forecasts, it was felt that the emergence of Modi as Prime Minister would promote Hindu-Muslim tension all over the country. It was, therefore, particularly significant that Modi should have decided to contest the election from Varanasi. Apart from being the holiest of Hindu temple cities, Varanasi also has a sizeable number of the Muslim population. The historic Kashi Vishwanath temple was demolished by Mughal rulers and it was reconstructed by Rani Ahalyabai Holkar. But right on the Kashi Vishwanath temple premises lies a historic mosque known as Gyanvapi mosque where prayers are regularly conducted by Muslims. Narendra Modi, who is yet to live down the adverse reputation of the 2002 communal riots of Ahmadabad, would no doubt ensure that there is no communal tension, not to speak of riots in his regime. In his electioneering speeches Modi's constant theme is that India has given 60 years to the Congress party and that he asks for only 60 months for his government to show the results. It would indeed be a remarkable feat if Modi could only succeed in replicating his Gujarat performance in various areas over the length and breadth of the country. He had constantly spoken of providing electric power in all cities and villages during all the 365 days of the year. There are several States which are having load-shedding for long hours with industries suffering, not to speak of the people. There are States in the South which have even a drinking-water problem and they have to depend upon an erratic supply of drinking water through tankers by the State Government. Any government which could eradicate such lack of basic amenities would elicit full support of the people. Narendra Modi has spoken of various development activities like setting up industries for achieving self-sufficiency in the production of defence equipment and having IITs and management institutes at places which need them. Being a practical man with adequate administrative experience, Modi would no doubt carry out important changes in the shortest possible time so as to secure the people's support. It is, therefore, necessary for the people and the country as a whole to wait and watch how the proposed BJP-led NDA government would perform under the leadership of Narendra Modi. The 2014 elections will be truly historic for another important reason: It would mean the end of the Congress party domination over the political affairs of the country since Independence. That the Congress party would lose heavily in this election has been demonstrated quite adequately by the unwillingness of leading stalwarts of the party like P. Chidambaram, G.K. Vasan, Manish Tewari and Sachin Pilot to contest the elections. This is enough to show where the Congress party is heading. The stock markets and the financial services are booming over the prospects of a Modi-led government and its performance. Stock prices have gone through the roof while the dollar-rupee ratio has undergone a big change in favour of the rupee. Only time will tell if all these forecasts were right. There is also speculation that State-level leaders like Mamata Banjerjee and Jayalalithaa with their projected 32 and 29 Lok Sabha seats respectively may throw their hats for claiming the leadership. However, such challenges from Mamata or Jayalalithaa are unlikely. There is also the likelihood of the emergence of a Third Front consisting of parties like the Telugu Desam Party, the Samajwadi Party, the JD (U) of Sharad Yadav and the JD(S) of Deve Gowda with the CPI and CPM leaders acting as cheer leaders. A distant hope is that Mulayam Singh Yadav, whose Samajwadi Party may secure 22 or 23 seats, may emerge as the acceptable leader of the Third Front. However, after the Muzaffarnagar riots in which the Samajwadi Party suffered a major setback in its hold over Muslims of U.P., Mulayam Singh Yadav's acceptability is considered doubtful. After analysing the various election results and the performance of all-India level as well as State-level parties, it is more than likely that there would be a BJP-led NDA government at the Centre on June 1 and Narendra Modi may be the Prime Minister.
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‘Ladies Sangeet’ in Chandigarh It looks as if this ceremony is being re-enacted in Chandigarh in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. This can be seen from the Tweet exchanges between the youthful Gul Panag and the aging Kirron Kher. This is how it runs: Gul Panag (AAP) Tweet targets Kirron Kher: “Doubt if I'll have the energy to run around like this and serve my people, when I'm 60. I guess that's why there's normally a retirement age.” Kirron Kher (BJP) retorts: “My father is 101 years old and still happening. He said, 'Good Luck Puttar. You have always been a winner'. For me life starts at 60.” Responding to a query from Sagarika Ghose on this 'Tweet Sangeet', Kirron Kher was to the point: “She (Gul Panag) didn't say I was 60. She said 60-year-olds should retire. I think retirement should be decided by people whether they can mentally and physically handle something. You have 25-year-olds who are bimbos and you have 60-year-olds who are brilliant.” Well said, and on this my vote is for Kirron! The third lady, BSP's Jannat Jahan, says that both these Bollywood ladies don't know anything about the city. Their parties have imposed them on the residents. If they cannot vote for themselves, how can they seek votes from the city residents?" Bravo. This is what is called 'hitting the nail on its head'! My thoughts go back to the momentous 1977 elections when as DC I was the Returning Officer for Chandigarh. The Emergency had just ended. The perception among Congressmen was that the elections were a mere formality. They believed that the "Congress candidates are strong and sure everywhere. Opposition people are either languishing in jail or lying in bed with a leg or a hand broken. They will not even find candidates to contest the polls. Even if they find candidates, they will have no means to contest". The Congress fielded Sat Pal, a multi-millionaire liquor magnate. He came with a flashy dress and all fanfare, in the manner of a conqueror with the kind of arrogance reserved for sure-shot winners. From the Janata side came Krishna Kant, the humble intellectual in a crumpled 'kurta'. Within days of filing nominations, the election battle heated up. Sat Pal hit the ground with all cylinders firing and had the distinct advantage of money, muscle and material over the austere Krishna Kant and his supporters still reeling under the trauma of the Emergency and the fear psychosis that went with it. Every evening Sat Pal's minions spread out to the outlying 'labour colonies' with cases of liquor and wads of currency. Each voter was given 'one bottle and one note' (hundred rupees). The confidence of Sat Pal was rising and he made bold announcements of sure-shot victory. But unknown to Sat Pal a different scene was being enacted in the same 'labour colonies' when Krishna Kant went to seek votes in the early hours of the morning. The colony dwellers came out in large numbers and handed over the hundred rupee notes to him, saying: "This is part of the Sat Pal loot. We have finished the bottle. This note is for you since you do not have money. Be assured of our votes too". Much more happened. But suffice it to say that when the votes were counted, the humble and simple Krishna Kant won by a margin of 32,000 votes, an impressive tally in a constituency with less than 300,000 voters! Indeed true. A tectonic shift has taken in the electoral battle. 'Ladies Sangeet' is a good diversion!
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The security imperatives for the next PM
Dear Future Prime Minister, Congratulations on being appointed as the new Prime Minister of our country. You have an onerous task before you, for you have a lot to undo what your predecessor and his colleagues and advisers have done or not done, before you commence governing the nation. I am convinced that you will have the intellectual and moral capacity to take the nation forward. There are many areas of good governance that will need your attention. These include the economy as well as the rampant corruption in the government. However, the subject I am bringing to your notice is the precarious state of “national security,” which is perhaps the most important and hence, I am bringing it to your focus at this early stage of steering the nation over at least the next five years, if not more. There are three broad facets of national security that need to be discussed. These are the current state of the Indian military, the abysmal lack of any national security strategies and the rapidly deteriorating civil-military relations. All three will need your urgent attention as these are issues of the utmost importance if the nation has to progress in a secure environment.
The Indian military has probably reached its lowest point since the major debacle of 1962 and for similar reasons that prevailed at that time. It was the gross neglect of the armed forces that had resulted in the humiliation of 1962 and history is apparently being repeated once more. In the last ten years, the military has again been starved of funds. These have been diverted to launch populous measures, which encourage corruption and help no one. Resultantly, little or no modernisation of the military has been carried out, no security-related policy initiatives have been started and the bureaucracy, with unfettered powers, has stifled the legitimate aspirations of the armed forces. The morale of the armed forces has fallen to extremely low levels and the country has become highly vulnerable to hostile actions by our adversaries. The defence budget has been steadily going down and presently stands much below two per cent of the GDP, when the accepted requirement is at least three per cent. The bulk of the allocations can only meet the revenue expenditure and what little is left for modernisation is conveniently siphoned back by the Ministry of Finance to balance its books and make additional funds available for dubious populous measures of the ruling party. The much vaunted procurement organisation of the Ministry of Defence (MoD), which has incidentally been reorganised at least six times in the last 15 years or so, has produced zilch. It is unable to expend even the meagre allocated capital budget. It is not that the armed forces do not plan adequately, but it is lack of commitment and understanding of matters military by the MoD, redundant procedures and sitting on files to make money on the side that are responsible for cases not fructifying. The army seems to have suffered most as far as modernisation is concerned, as its budgetary allocations have decreased considerably. The equipment state of the two fighting arms — armour and infantry — is abysmal. On paper, India fields a total of 3,274 tanks. Of these, only 485 T-90s and 124 Arjuns can be considered modern and even these have major problems like inadequate night fighting capability and sufficient ammunition and spares support. The equipment state of the mechanised infantry is similar. Tracked vehicles, which should have been replaced decades back, continue to be on the inventory of units. The infantry, which is the mainstay of the army, continues to be equipped with obsolete INSAS rifles. The much vaunted project of fielding state of the art modern infantrymen under the Futuristic Infantry Soldier as a System (F-INSAS) programme is way behind schedule. The infantry is also short of a large number of carbines, machine guns, anti-material rifles, mine-protected vehicles, night-vision devices, bullet-proof jackets and other equipment. Our special and airborne forces are still not equipped with appropriate weapons and combat systems. The sad saga of equipping the artillery with modern guns is too well known to bear repetition. The equipment state of the Air Defence Artillery is even worse, as they continue to field obsolete weapons of 1970's vintage. The Army Aviation Corps (AAC) continues to fly obsolete Chetak and Cheetah helicopters. For nearly a decade, there is only talk of procuring approximately 200 light utility helicopters, as contracts keep getting delayed or terminated. The navy is also badly off. The state of naval platforms, both surface and sub-surface is too well known in recent months to need any elaboration. The submarine arm is particularly badly off. A brilliant Chief of Navy Staff has had to resign owning moral responsibility because he has character, although it is not he who should have resigned but the Minister of Defence and the bureaucrats who could not provide equipment and spares, despite being constantly reminded of the bad equipment state. The state of the air force is equally precarious. It is desperate for more fighters. Its 34 squadrons will reduce to 26 in 2017, if the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft, Rafael, is not inducted by then. There is urgency to replace the ageing MiG fighters, 482 of which have crashed in the last four decades. Their replacement, the indigenous Tejas fighters, continue to be on the assembly line, but none have been produced as yet. Joint endeavours remain frozen although everyone talks about them. A so-called Integrated Headquarters is in existence as a result of the recommendations of the Group of Ministers (GoM) of 2001, but it is headless as no Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) or Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff has been appointed. The main reason is that the bureaucracy only believes in retaining and expanding its turf and powers and is least concerned with the security of the nation. The Department of Ex-servicemen Welfare is a joke, as it is more concerned with taking hapless veterans to courts instead of assisting them. The political leadership has long been blasé about the armed forces and prefers not to deal directly with the military hierarchy. Vintage structures continue and forming integrated theatre commands are only talking points in seminars. We have been unable to formulate a national security strategy as the political leadership has sacrificed merit and has placed its reliance only on loyalists and yes-men in the office of the National Security Adviser (NSA) and in other key positions, instead of people who understand grand strategy and military strategy. Since the inception of the office of NSA, we have had only diplomats and police officers heading it. Consequently, we depend exclusively on “soft power” and enacting more laws, but see no merit in pursuing “hard power.” Despite a lot of lip service, we have not taken any serious actions to indigenise defence production. We continue to waste precious funds on inefficient and corrupt organisations like the Ordnance Factories, Defence PSUs and the DRDO, where middlemen rule the roost. We have ignored private companies which are efficient, have the expertise and are keen to produce defence equipment. One can continue in this vein and list out all structural and equipment weaknesses, but with no transformation, utter lack of any modernisation of weaponry, and existing shortages of all types of equipment and munitions, the Indian military is not in a position to fight and win battles and wars. We seem to have psyched ourselves to believe that our country will not be embroiled in any war, forgetting that our growth as a military power is an essential component of our ascendancy to “great power” status. No amount of economic development can be sustained unless it is underpinned by military security of a very high order. I appeal to you Sir, to set in motion urgent measures, on assuming office, to seriously overhaul the present defence machinery, modernise it and make it responsive to the needs of the Indian military and the nation. Urgent measures to be taken include the integration of Service Headquarters and MoD, simplification of financial vetting procedures, delegation of powers for capital procurements, increasing the processing capacity of the procurement authorities, proceeding rapidly towards joint endeavours, placing professional experts in important positions, setting in motion the comprehensive restructuring of ordnance factories, defence PSUs and DRDO, opening defence production to the trade and above all, having a continuing dialogue with the armed forces hierarchy instead of continuing with the present archaic and peculiar system of interacting with them through middlemen like bureaucrats, diplomats and other civil officials. The Indian military has proven its credentials of loyalty, apolitical demeanour and love for the country and needs to be trusted unequivocally. Jai Hind, Sir, and best wishes for a productive tenure. The writer is a former Vice Chief of Army Staff and the Founder Director of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
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