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EDITORIALS

Regularising illegal colonies
A crime in Delhi, not in Punjab and Haryana
T
HE Aam Aadmi Party leaders have targeted Sheila Dikshit, a veteran of the Congress on whose support depends their government. More pragmatic politicians in such a situation would have kept quiet. The AAP leaders, however, went public with their demand for "strict action" against Sheila Dikshit.

Positive signs
Sikhs can wear turbans in the US military
Pentagon has acceded to a long-standing demand of the Sikhs that they be allowed to wear turbans while serving in the US military. Sikhs wearing turbans have served in many parts of the world, including in the US military at one time. They wear turbans in military service of Canada and the UK.


EARLIER STORIES

Back to future
February 4, 2014
Safety is not an option
February 3, 2014
Make money off forests, but don’t ruin them
February 2, 2014
Tenure turbulence
February 1, 2014
Of hope and reality
January 31, 2014
Waiting for justice
January 30, 2014
Theft of power
January 29, 2014
Pathribal outrage
January 28, 2014
Pakistan reaches the tipping point
January 26, 2014
A blow to black money
January 25, 2014


On this day...100 years ago


Lahore, Thursday, February 5, 1914

  • Increase of lawlessness
  • Growth of Mahomedan population
ARTICLE

President needs to observe decorum
Pranab Mukherjee forgets that he is only a constitutional head
Kuldip Nayar
Pranab Mukherjee would have been a natural successor to Dr Manmohan Singh after he stepped down as Prime Minister. Precisely this was the reason why the person who had wide contacts was kicked upstairs. Sonia Gandhi's determination to make her son, Rahul Gandhi, Prime Minister came in the way of Mukherjee's political ambitions.

MIDDLE

Blame it on the name
V. M. Wadhwa
I
T was in the mid-eighties when I was hardly forty that I, along with my childhood friend, planned to visit Shimla as a pleasure trip on the eve of Christmas. Tickets were got booked in advance and we boarded the train at Kalka. We had travelled to Shimla earlier either by bus or by car. It was a novel experience for us.

OPED — NEIGHBOUR

Afghanistan’s political transition
Anand Arni
Afghanistan will undergo another political transition in 2014 with the presidential election slated for April 5. Just as in 2004 and 2009, this election carries hope of ushering in new opportunities. Unlike then, however, the hope is tempered with profound uncertainty over the prospects of the candidates and the outcome of the election.





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Regularising illegal colonies
A crime in Delhi, not in Punjab and Haryana

THE Aam Aadmi Party leaders have targeted Sheila Dikshit, a veteran of the Congress on whose support depends their government. More pragmatic politicians in such a situation would have kept quiet. The AAP leaders, however, went public with their demand for "strict action" against Sheila Dikshit. As chief minister of Delhi, she issued provisional regularisation certificates to about 1,200 illegal colonies with an eye on the assembly elections in 2008. No infrastructure was made available in the colonies. Lokayukta Manmohan Sarin, acting on a BJP complaint, indicted Sheila for various illegalities in November 2013. She is also in trouble for misspending public money on advertisements. AAP has kept its promise of taking on whoever is found on the wrong side of the law. Now action on the CWG scam is eagerly awaited

All this may sound a little surprising or disconcerting to those in Punjab and Haryana where it is common for the chief ministers to regularise illegal colonies without anyone even raising an eyebrow. No one complains about unplanned, bewildering growth of cities and towns. And the Lokayuktas are hardly approached against the powerful politicians violating the basic tenets of town planning. Opposition leaders do not object to voters acquiring cheaper, even if illegal, roofs over their head. Builders make money and buy politicians' support and silence. It is a win-win situation for all.

The price of haphazard urban growth is paid during the rainy season when the absence of sewerage or municipal water supply is felt acutely and then angry residents cry for the basic amenities. Under pressure, the cash-strapped municipalities do patch work and over time people learn to live with the conditions they are in. The Supreme Court's guidelines to regulate the chaotic growth of housing colonies remain unimplemented. Likewise, the use of public money to project political leaders through the media is hardly considered objectionable here. No matter how much development work a political leader may carry out, he cannot break the law and get away with it. Sheila Dikshit is learning it the hard way.

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Positive signs
Sikhs can wear turbans in the US military

Pentagon has acceded to a long-standing demand of the Sikhs that they be allowed to wear turbans while serving in the US military. Sikhs wearing turbans have served in many parts of the world, including in the US military at one time. They wear turbans in military service of Canada and the UK. In the US, however, since the 1980s, a ban on articles of faith prevented Sikh soldiers from wearing turbans and maintaining uncut beards. Concerted efforts of advocacy groups, supported by US political leaders, did yield some positive results as and thus accommodation was made for Major Kamaljeet Singh Kalsi, Captain Tejdeep Singh Rattan and Corporal Simran Preet Singh Lamba. Two of them served in Afghanistan. Their services were recognised with a Bronze Star Medal and a NATO Commendation Medal.

The new guidelines will allow soldiers to wear religious clothing, like turbans and skullcaps, while on duty. They also allow for facial hair, body art and other expressions of religious belief. This is an acknowledgement of the diverse nature of the US military, which now has thousands of Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists, and people of other religious denominations. Many organisations have protested against the military's policy, which they said, forces soldiers to choose between their religious beliefs and service in the military.

The policy revision, however, does not give blanket permission to wear articles of faith. In fact, there is an administrative process which will have to be followed, and thus soldiers will have to ask for permission to wear their articles of faith. The policy is being challenged by advocacy groups in the US. They are determined to effect changes that would truly open the door by making such approvals automatic, and not subjective. US citizens of Indian origin have proudly laid down their lives while serving the flag of their adopted nation. Now they will be able to serve, even as they maintain their religious identity.

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Thought for the Day

Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one.

— A. J. Liebling

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Lahore, Thursday, February 5, 1914

Increase of lawlessness

EVIDENTLY the outrage committed by the lawless hands in the North-West Frontier Province has served to encourage the unruly elements in our own Province. It is impossible to say whether gangs of Pathans have scattered themselves throughout the Province to raid the houses of wealthy persons simultaneously. We have heard reports of the crime coming from villages in Native States as well as from British districts. Even the city of Patiala does not seem to be immune and a vernacular paper reports a daring attempt probably to kidnap at the residence of the Tikka Sahib. In the first week of January a gang of dacoits looted a village near Mukerian and the police were later on able to arrest four of the men who were going about in the garb of mendicants. We now hear of another dacoity occurring last week at Jagapur near Miani on the borders of Kapurthala territory.

Growth of Mahomedan population

A NOTEWORTHY fact to which attention is drawn by a contemporary is the increase of Mahomedan population in India as compared with the Hindu. This is said to be due to the absence of those social restraints among the community which the Hindus suffer from. Mr. Gait in the Census Report writes: “This (the increase of Moslem population by 6.7 per cent as compared with 5 per cent of Hindus) may possibly be due to their (Mahomedan) more nourishing diet but the main reason is that their social customs are more favourable to a high birth rate than those of the Hindus….The greater productive capacity of the Mahomedans is shown by the fact that the proportion of married females to the total number of females aged 15 to 40 exceeds the corresponding proportion for Hindus…Since 1881 the number of Mahomedans in the areas enumerated has risen by 26.4 per cent., while the corresponding increase for Hindus is only 15.1 per cent.." At this rate a time will surely come when the Mahomedan population in India will equal the Hindu.

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President needs to observe decorum
Pranab Mukherjee forgets that he is only a constitutional head
Kuldip Nayar

Pranab Mukherjee would have been a natural successor to Dr Manmohan Singh after he stepped down as Prime Minister. Precisely this was the reason why the person who had wide contacts was kicked upstairs. Sonia Gandhi's determination to make her son, Rahul Gandhi, Prime Minister came in the way of Mukherjee's political ambitions.

It was up to Mukherjee not to accept the post of President. But when he announced that he would not contest the election in 2014, it became clear that he was exasperated, waiting in the wings. Sonia Gandhi readily accepted the position because he had himself cleared the deck for Rahul Gandhi. Mukjerjee had taken it for granted that the key role he had portrayed as a fire-fighter during the troubled times that he could not be ignored for having served the dynasty relentlessly.

Unfortunately, Mukherjee has not adjusted himself to the institution of President. He should refrain from making such remarks as he could do as a politician. I have not liked the dharna by the Aam Aadmi Party's Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on the demand of transferring two police officials who had reportedly insulted his Law Minister Somnath Bharti.

But Chief Minister Kejriwal has set a bad precedent by letting his Law Minister off the hook. He should have left it to the state Chief Secretary to deal with the "defiance" by the police officials. His defence is that he did not violate the Constitution. It is a strange logic when he threw to the wind the very letter and spirit of the Constitution which has given all powers to the executive of which he is only a figure head.

The Chief Minister's defence that his dharna was not unconstitutional does not wash. He does not realise that the middle class, his forte, wants an orderly administration and feels let down over the tactics like dharna by the state Chief Minister. But why President Mukherjee should comment on political matters is really beyond me. Mukherjee has been making speeches verging on politics from day one.

He has been commenting on problems confronting the nation as if he is presiding over the affairs of the country. His Republic Day broadcast beats them all and has naturally evoked some angry comments. Several political parties like the Communist Party of India (CPI) have characterised the speech as political.

What President Mukherjee says is generally correct. For example, his remarks that populist anarchy is no substitute for governance or that there is a rising trend of hypocrisy in public life are correct. But he forgets that he is only a constitutional head and has to observe the decorum which the elected Parliament and state legislatures expect from a person who occupies that position.

No doubt, he finds politics a familiar turf but he left it when he was elected President. His grievance with Congress president Sonia Gandhi may be genuine. But that is between her and him. The nation is not concerned with what goes on in a political party.

President Mukherjee's comment that the "government is not a charity shop" is criticism of the promises that the government makes to draw electoral support. All political parties do so. Mukherjee was in the Cabinet of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi when she raised the slogan of "Garibi Hatao". The Manmohan Singh government has doled out favours to the DMK to sustain its support.

It is an open secret how the CBI case against Mulayam Singh Yadav was withdrawn to get his party's support. Mukherjee was part of the government when there was a quid pro quo to save Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government from falling. If President Mukherjee felt so strongly, as his criticism indicates, why did he not speak out at that time? His opposition would have mattered because he was a senior leader.

For example, his recovery of tax retrospectively dried up foreign investment. As Finance Minister, he should have anticipated the adverse effect his decision would have on investment. Even today when reasons for stagnation are adumbrated, Mukherjee's name is mentioned repeatedly. He lives in the luxury of Rashtrapati Bhavan, while the nation is paying the price for his follies.

Mukherjee was a minister when Mrs Gandhi had stopped sending any paper to the then President, Giani Zail Singh, who differed with her on Punjab. What Mrs Gandhi did was a violation of the Constitution. I wish Mukherjee had raised his voice then. The office of President is an institution which should not be disfigured. Yet political leaders do that. That Mukherjee should also be doing so is a sad commentary on his sagacity and those like him.

Yet another example is that Mukherjee's silence when Mrs Gandhi imposed the Emergency in 1975. She delivered a severe blow to the institutions which her father, Jawaharlal Nehru, had fostered. Mukherjee was then a close collaborator of Sanjay Gandhi, an extra constitutional authority. The worst aspect of the Emergency was that morality was banished from politics. There was fear which made the then President, Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, to sign the proclamation even before the Cabinet gave its approval.

My experience is that a Prime Minister pays scant attention to a President. The Constitution framers, who preferred parliamentary democracy to the presidential form of government, have laid down what the President can do. But this has been nullified over the years because the Congress takes the President's wishes for granted. By making political speeches, the occupant of Rashtrapati Bhavan only aggravates the problem.

There is a very thin line dividing the right and the wrong, moral and immoral. Institutions are ought to protect that line. It is easy to say from the pulpit that such and such thing is dangerous to the country. However correct President Mukherjee's observations may be, he should introspect whether what he did as a Cabinet minister was correct, not only legally but also morally. The ball is in his court.

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Blame it on the name
V. M. Wadhwa

IT was in the mid-eighties when I was hardly forty that I, along with my childhood friend, planned to visit Shimla as a pleasure trip on the eve of Christmas. Tickets were got booked in advance and we boarded the train at Kalka. We had travelled to Shimla earlier either by bus or by car. It was a novel experience for us. The train moved slowly, through tunnels, and it was a zigzag journey, providing eye-catching sites of the hills.

As the train halted at Dharampur, my friend showed an inclination to have beer to make the journey more enjoyable. Although it is an offence to take liquor in public, yet we could not resist the temptation of Bacchus, and contacted the station master, who was already in an inebriated state, to know the duration for which the train would halt and the location of a nearby tavern, where we could get our fill. To our surprise, he said authoritatively, "Gentlemen, the train will not move till you return, but mind it, one beer for me too".

At Shimla, we stayed at the Cedar Rest House, which is situated on the Mall road. In the evening, we went to have a stroll on the Mall and the ridge, where we had a panoramic view of the mountain peaks of Shimla.

The next day we drove down to Chail, which has the highest cricket pitch in the world. To our good luck, snowfall had taken place that day, which made our visit more memorable. In the evening we enjoyed the twinkling lights of Shimla, which presented a beautiful sight.

The next morning we went to Kufri and pursued skiing there. In the evening, while having a stroll in the lawn of the hotel, unluckily, I lost my wallet, containing cash and important documents, which came as a shock. In those days there was no ATM facility. I promptly brought it to the notice of the Manager.

As honesty still prevailed then, a feeble and humble "pahari" boy came to the reception and said that he had found a purse nearby and guessed that the owner might be staying in this very hotel. The receptionist immediately informed me and we heaved a sigh of relief. I offered him suitable amount as a token of gratitude, but he refused saying, "I have only done my duty. We are not well off, but are content with what the Almighty has bestowed on us".

The next day we returned to Chandigarh, but the cool climes of the hills had caused an acute chest congestion and bad cold. In those days I was posted with the Health Minister and the SMO, Mohali, knew me very well. After knowing her availability, I went to the hospital, and told her about the state of my health. She asked her orderly to send Dr. Shashi to her room. On hearing this, I walked to the attached washroom, set my necktie, combed my hair and started waiting anxiously for the doctor to arrive in her room. And lo and behold, as I was in a romantic state of mind, abruptly a Sikh gentleman with a stethoscope in his neck entered the room. After the SMO introduced me to him, he started enquiring from me about my illness. I felt so nervous and embarrassed that I could not explain him my problem properly. In fact, I was expecting a lady doctor, and the Sikh gentleman was Dr. Shashi.

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Afghanistan’s political transition
Anand Arni

Qayum Karzai (C), older brother of Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai, is a candidate for the Afghanistan presidential election
Qayum Karzai (C), older brother of Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai, is a candidate for the Afghanistan presidential election. Photo: Reuters

Afghanistan will undergo another political transition in 2014 with the presidential election slated for April 5. Just as in 2004 and 2009, this election carries hope of ushering in new opportunities. Unlike then, however, the hope is tempered with profound uncertainty over the prospects of the candidates and the outcome of the election.

The ticket

President Hamid Karzai is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. This opens the floor for other players. Of the 29 candidates who initially registered, only 11 remain representing a multitude of interests and alliances – Hidayat Amin Arsala aligned with Pakistan; Dr Abdullah perceived as having backing from India, Iran and the UK; ex-Royalists like Zalmai Rasool; Mujahideen leaders like Abdul Rasul Sayyaf; and President Karzai’s elder brother, Qayyum Karzai.

The electoral formula is simple – the ticket has a president with two vice-presidential running mates. Nothing in the Afghan constitution stipulates that the President has to be a Pashtoon but, given their demographic weight (The Pashtoons comprise 42 per cent of the population, though these numbers are, at best, estimates, as the last official census in Afghanistan was in 1979) and the nature of the insurgency, it is inconceivable that a non-Pashtun could be a viable candidate, at least in the short term. Numerically, the two largest minorities are the Tajiks and the Hazaras and, therefore, the last two elections have seen a Tajik as first vice-president with a Hazara as second vice-president.

Certainties and uncertainties

Several dynamics are crucial to understanding how the election may play out. First, at the center of the political transition stands President Karzai. A shrewd politician, experienced in manipulating intersecting interests and affiliations to his advantage, Karzai’s support is integral to influencing the outcome of the election. There is no clear favourite precisely because Karzai has not thrown his weight behind anyone yet.

Second, given the absence of any outright favourite, this election is less about the individual and more about the team – the president and his vice-presidents. Assessing the frontrunner is, thus, about understanding who has the best team.

Third, while the Pashtun, Tajik and Hazara votes are likely to be divided among the contesting teams, the Uzbek votes would remain largely uncontested.

Fourth, while there are 11 teams, a number of these are in it primarily to secure political concessions from those that are more likely to win. These teams stand a miniscule, if any, chance and are likely to cut deals and secure assurances of political favours for cabinet-level and sub-national appointments from the likely winners. In exchange, they would validate the mandate of another team and/or lend it financial support and drop out of the race.

Thus, to assess the teams that could be potential frontrunners, it is critical to identify (a) the teams that are least likely to drop out and (b) those teams that Hamid Karzai is most likely to support. These two attributes are central to the outcome of the election.

Least likely drop-outs

The team that seems least likely to drop out is led by Abdullah Abdullah and his running mates Engineer Mohammed Khan — a Pashtun from Ghazni province affiliated with the Hizb-e-Islami party — and Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq, a Hazara and head of the People's Islamic Unity Party of Afghanistan.

Man to man, not only is this team one of the most promising, the team also realises how Dr Abdullah surpassed most expectations in 2009. Dr Abdullah, who claims mixed Pashtun and Tajik ancestry, can expect some backing from the Jamiat-e-Islami party. He would also benefit from the Hazaras whom Mohaqeq would attract. The fact that Abdullah and Mohaqeq have demonstrated an ability to raise resources for their politics is another reason why they are likely to go all the way.

Another team that is highly unlikely to drop out is that led by Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. Ghani, a Pashtun, is seen as a technocrat with a vision for Afghanistan. A former finance minister and a well-regarded economist, Ghani is a Kochi and his brother Hashmat is the Grand Chieftain of the Kochi council. If the Kochis vote on ethnic lines, Ghani would not meet with much competition for their votes. Ghani has Uzbek strongman Dostum as his running mate. While this has angered many Pashtoons who have not forgiven Dostum for excesses against them, this disadvantage could be offset by the support Dostum will muster from the Uzbek and Turkmen minority, who account for 10 per cent of the population. Unlike other ethnic groups, there is no alternative to Dostum who could command national stature among the Uzbeks. As his second vice-president, Ghani has picked former Minister of Justice Sarwar Danish, a Hazara.

Ghani’s team is unlikely to opt out because of the noticeable rise in popularity for Ghani across the country since 2009. This is a result of his work on transition planning. Another reason is the certainty of securing Uzbek votes.

Unsurprisingly, these two teams led by Abdullah and Ghani are also least likely to secure Hamid Karzai’s support. Both these leaders contested in 2009 and neither was willing to compromise or opt out then.

Karzai’s roulette

Those wary of Karzai’s political intrigues are reluctant to reveal their cards early. But, who is Karzai’s bet among these teams? Speculation abounds that Former Foreign Minister Zalmai Rasool enjoys Karzai's tacit backing. He is largely seen as a moderate with royalist connections. Rasool’s running mates are Ahmad Zia Massoud — a former first vice-president, brother of the iconic Ahmad Shah Masood and son-in-law of former President Burhanuddin Rabbani. Ahmad Zia could be expected to challenge Abdullah's northern support as well as that within the Jamiat. As his second vice-president, Rasool has picked former Bamiyan governor Habiba Surabi who has been a symbol of women empowerment. This could help marshal support from the female electorate as well as among the Hazaras in Bamiyan.

The other team that Karzai may potentially back is led by Abdul Qayum Karzai, the President's elder brother. The team includes former Minister for Mines, Wahidullah Shahran,i and former lawmaker Noor Akbari. Qayum has no real experience in governance but he hails from the Durrani Popalzai tribe and has been focusing on Kandahar, the heartland of the Pashtoons. Shahrani is an Uzbek and Akbari, a Hazara.

A possible third option but less likely is Sayyaf and his running mates Ismail Khan and Mawlavi Abdul Wahab Irfan. With their religious and jihadi credentials and overt hostility towards the Taliban, Karzai could also turn to this team if he does not see the first two promising enough.

Informed speculation

None of the teams seem as formidable as the one that Hamid Karzai put together in 2009 or in 2004. Yet, given the dynamics, one can reasonably put forth the following conjectures.

First, it is unlikely that there would be more than three, at most four, teams. If all 11 contest, there is a risk that no team would be able to secure the constitutional requirement of securing more than 50 per cent of the votes in the first round because the Pashtuns, Tajiks and Hazaras will be divided. In that scenario, whether the international community would have the wherewithal and the patience to finance the logistics of a subsequent round is debatable. Equally questionable is the appetite among Afghans to deal with prolonged political vacuum. It is in the interest of all political actors to strike compromises based on their calculation of political/material gains from participating or not participating.

Second, none of the teams can win on the basis of their composition. Abdullah’s team seems the most promising because of its ethnic representation and the ability of Abdullah and Mohaqiq to mobilise resources on a large scale. Ghani’s team enjoys the theoretical certainty of Uzbek votes but it lacks the composition of a team that could elicit support among the Tajiks — the largest minority. Qayum Karzai’s team, while resourceful, would also suffer from the same weakness of not having a Tajik running mate. Rasool would be a serious prospect only if backed by Karzai since none of his team enjoys the political clout or a constituency that is large enough to be serious challengers. Similarly, Sayyaf and Ismail Khan have the financial resources but they are serious contestants only if they secure Karzai’s endorsement.

Third, while Abdullah’s and Ghani’s teams are likely to contest the race, any others may actually contest only with Karzai’s backing. It seems likely that the final race would be contested among Abdullah, Ghani, and one or two from the remaining nine. These are most likely going to be the teams led by Rasool and either Qayoom Karzai or Sayyaf – whoever earns Karzai’s favour.

The election outcome would depend largely on Karzai’s endorsement because of his influential patronage networks across the country and the administrative machinery at his disposal. Other factors, though somewhat less important, would be the willingness of the US to showcase this as a clean election.

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