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ARTICLE |
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Natural gas pipeline or pipedream?
Pakistan finds itself in a lose-lose situation with Iran
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty
Iran's President M. Ahmadinejad (left) and Pakistan's Asif Ali Zardari during the inauguration of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline on March 11, 2013. Photo: Reuters
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Iran
has cancelled the loan of US $500 million that it had promised to Pakistan to build its part of the Iran-Pakistan (IP) natural gas pipeline. Iran has already built its part of the pipeline on its territory. The agreement requires Pakistan to build its part of the pipeline by December 2014. If Pakistan fails to buy gas by the stipulated date, then Iran can demand compensation under the agreement. Officially, Iran has cited financial constraints for backing out from providing the loan. The Iranian decision came soon after Pakistan decided to speed up work on the project that has fallen far behind schedule.Pakistan is in no position to build the pipeline without financial assistance, given the parlous state of its treasury. It has not been able to secure financing for the project and was banking on the Iranian loan to implement the project, expected to cost more than US $1.5 billion. The USA has opposed this pipeline as part of its extensive energy related and financial sanctions against the Iran regime and Pakistan cannot raise international financing without the support of the USA. Earlier the pipeline included India and it was known as the IPI pipeline. India backed out for various reasons, principally because of objections raised by the USA as well as disagreement with Iran over the pricing of gas, though the transit fee payable to Pakistan was almost settled. India opted for the alternate USA-backed Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline which still remains work in progress. After India backed out, Pakistan and Iran worked out a bilateral agreement to build the pipeline and India kept its option open to buy gas from Pakistan, if the pipeline was extended to the Indian border sometime in future. Iran's decision to renege on the loan deal has left Pakistan between a rock and a hard place. Defaulting on the agreement will lead to a double whammy -- millions of dollars in compensation and a big hole in its crumbling energy security. If Pakistan opts out of this project, it will have to pay compensation to Iran at the rate of US $1 million a day but may get back into Uncle Sam's good books. The TAPI project was the USA's card to wean Pakistan and India from the IPI pipeline project. After the P-5 plus 1 nuclear deal with Iran in November last year, Pakistan had hoped that the USA might soften its hard stance on Iranian sanctions. The USA, however, rebuffed Pakistan and reiterated its continued opposition to this project. The USA is keen to pursue the TAPI pipeline and is also promoting the Central Asia-South Asia electricity project which will permit Afghanistan and Pakistan to access electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrghyzstan. Pakistan has been trying to leverage the IP pipeline to bargain with the USA but the latter has refused to enter into an energy dialogue unless Pakistan cancelled the project. Pakistan is caught in a bind. It needs energy for its ailing economy, with long and frequent power cuts that have led Pakistan to explore the option of importing electricity from India. The IP pipeline would have delivered around 21 million cubic metres of gas daily. Critics of this agreement have argued that Pakistan could not afford to pay the agreed price for the Iranian gas and it would destroy Pakistan's economy if the deal went ahead. The price of gas being charged by Iran is way above the market rates. Others have argued that Pakistan must extract concessions from the USA to cancel the deal with Iran or turn to China or Russia to finance the project. The Iranian decision has led to much speculation. Its timing, soon after the nuclear deal and reports that Pakistan may transfer nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, in case Iran went ahead with its nuclear weapons programme are all very intriguing. Iran's decision creates opportunities for India to revive the undersea gas pipeline from Iran to India. With the progressive lifting of sanctions on Iran, the Iran-India undersea gas pipeline's prospects look brighter. Pakistan's options are limited. There is no money to build the Pakistani part of the pipeline and, even if money were available, going ahead with it will certainly invite US sanctions. Pakistan finds itself in a lose-lose situation. The TAPI pipeline and importing electricity from India are better options. The Central Asian States are rich in hydrocarbon reserves which can be tapped by both Pakistan and India. If Pakistan were to cooperate in bringing the TAPI pipeline to fruition, it would help build confidence between India and Pakistan. It would also encourage India to export electricity to Pakistan and help create the South Asian electricity grid. Electricity producers and consumers will benefit in all South Asian countries and promote energy security for all participating countries. But for this to happen, the looming situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan's predilections will be the deal-maker or deal-breaker. The writer is a former Secretary in the MEA and former Ambassador and High Commissioner to Thailand and Bangladesh, respectively
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MIDDLE |
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Travelling in a Himachal bus
Krishan Gopal
 The
HRTC bus almost
packed to capacity was negotiating serpentine curves unfolding one
mountain top after another along with a breathtaking panorama of
nature. At some desolate wayside spot, a hand was projected from the
sidewalk and the bus halted. A woman moved in and finding no seat
vacant reconciled to travel standing. A young man quietly vacated his
seat for her. At another point, an old man boarded and likewise
another young man gave up his comfortable seat for him. At still
another point, a girl, waiting by the roadside, advanced towards the
driver's door and handed over a lunch box for her father serving at a
station en route. At yet another point, a man handed over to the
driver a sum of Rs15,000 to be delivered to a person at some other
village en route. At some major station on the way, the bus stopped
for some refreshment for passengers for about 20 minutes. No sooner
did the journey resume than a man advanced towards the driver's seat,
raising his little finger. Understanding this childhood signal, he
made a protest but ultimately yielded by applying the brakes and
letting the man answer the call of nature. It looked as if it were all
a family affair. Such things are possible only in Himachal.My
relatives from Ludhiana once paid a visit to us when I was serving in
Govt. College, Sarkaghat. They were quite critical of the
"slow" pace of our buses which stop at any and every point
even in wilderness. To the contrary, I asked them to appreciate the
warmth and fellow feeling which are the hallmarks of our social fabric
here. Take this instance for comparison: Once I boarded the last bus
from Paonta Sahib for Shillai, an interior area. It was the month of
December. About 6-7 km short of the destination, the driver as well as
some passengers noticed in the beam of the headlights a leopard
perched on the hillside just 10 yards away. After appreciating its
beauty for a few seconds, the bus proceeded on. The driver had hardly
driven for 200 yards when he noticed a pedestrian on his way home
going in the opposite direction. He immediately applied the brakes,
called the stranger, cautioned him against the leopard and the lurking
danger, gave him his cigarette lighter-cum-torch for help in case of
need. How grateful must the pedestrian be at this noble gesture! At
such moments, I feel like rechristening HRTC as Brotherhood Road
Transport Corporation. In comparison, let me narrate an incident that
took place when I was traveling by some other state's bus from
Chandigarh to Shimla about 25 years ago. The crew was in undue haste,
shouting at passengers. An old woman occupying a rear seat with her
cloth baggage was to disembark somewhere between Shoghi and Tara Devi.
First, despite her pleadings, the driver did not apply the brakes.
When at long last he did, the woman's baggage got stuck up in the
door. The conductor was in such a hurry that he kicked it forcefully
and down it rolled into a gorge about 100-metre deep. Everybody,
including the helpless woman, looked in utter consternation at that
natural enemy of mankind. We used to shudder to travel by such 'alien'
roadways buses. Now of course, the times have changed a lot. The HRTC
buses, on the contrary, have quite smart crew members who do not
compromise with reasonable speed and yet perform all humane tasks with
an open heart. The conductor is ready to forgo his seat for some needy
passenger. He is seldom harsh or rude, as he knows he is playing the
host. In the sweltering heat, if someone asks for water, the driver
hands over his own water bottle. Even if a passenger requests the
conductor to help him in bringing down his baggage from the rooftop,
he conveniently agrees. There is a bit of entertainment as well, as
conductors in most of the buses do not require any jarring instrument
to make a whistle. They can twist their tongue and lips to send out a
pleasing, melodious whistle. This HRTC is speedier than even the
speed-post, only you need a person at the other end to collect the
urgent letter. A journey by an HRTC bus definitely corroborates its
motto "Safe service, courteous service".
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OPED
— World |
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The rising curve of terrorist violence
R.K. Raghavan
Cars burn after a bomb blast in Beirut on January 2, 2014. In Lebanon various terrorist groups, although powered by the jihadist ideology, either collaborate or work against one another. The equations keep changing every now and then, contributing to confusion. Photo: AFP
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These
are hugely challenging times for experts monitoring terrorism across the globe. Their efforts to weave a pattern from recent incidents and extract some sense out of it have been only modestly productive. This is mainly because, in the post-Bin Laden scenario there are far too many terror groups in the field in every country vying with one another for space. They have also varied mechanics and targets that make generalisations on their reach and potential hazards. The spread of terrorism in the present times is skewed. According to one study at the University of Maryland's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism, during 2012 just three countries -- Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan -- accounted for 54 per cent of the attacks and 57 per cent of the fatalities. India and regions of Africa reported most of the other incidents. This broad picture throws up several issues that are relevant to any analysis. These are: What kind of cross-country connections are there between groups? Is a regrouping of the much-dreaded al Qaida possible? If so, what will be the impact of its resurgence? What kind of resources do the major groups have at their command? And finally, how do they communicate among themselves without attracting the attention of law enforcement officials? These are the principal questions that nag all scholars and intelligence officials. There can be no accurate answers. Instead, there is a lot of guesswork and unfounded presumptions which do not exactly help the establishment formulate preventive measures. To get an idea of the complexity of terrorism of the present times, it is necessary to recall a few major incidents during the past year.
PakistanOn January 9, 2013, a senior police official of Karachi city, Chaudhry Aslam Khan, was killed when an explosive-laden vehicle carrying a suicide bomber deliberately rammed into a police convoy accompanying him. Khan, who rose from the rank of an Assistant Sub-Inspector, was a dare-devil who had escaped many assassination attempts in the past. While his methods of operation against criminal elements were questionable, he was hailed for his success in frustrating many terrorist adventures. The Pakistani Taliban has claimed responsibility for his killing. The impact of loss of a senior result-oriented policeman on the rest of the force can hardly be exaggerated. The resultant boost to terrorist morale should also be reckoned here. This is especially so in a country devastated by political instability and distracted frequently by the army meddling in the civilian administration.
AfghanistanThe internal security situation in the country is still very delicate. Terrorist groups, particularly the Taliban, with a panache for suicide attacks still strut the scene and are able to strike at will, if not in Kabul, but not far from the capital. Nearly 4,000 civilian casualties in the first half of 2013 is an index of the intensity of insurgent activity. Taliban infiltration into the security forces is a major cause for worry.
LibyaA car bomb exploded outside a Foreign Ministry building in Benghazi on September 11, 2013. This was to mark the anniversary of an assault on the U.S. Consulate there that had killed four Americans, including Ambassador Christopher Stevens. (Fortunately, in the latest attack there were no casualties.) Significantly, the 2012 incident is still being debated on the issue of who perpetrated it. While the US State Department had originally maintained that this was a spontaneous and unexpected demonstration against the inflammatory video “Innocence of Muslim” that had rocked many countries, subsequent revelations pointed to a prolonged disturbed situation in the city and neighbouring regions where al Qaida and its affiliates were extremely active and militant. A bipartisan US Senate committee that went into the episode was positive that the attack could have been foiled with the enhanced security arrangements that Ambassador Stevens had earlier demanded. Recent reports from Libya point to the involvement of two Ansar al-Sharia groups, whose exact relationship with al Qaida is still a matter of contention.
LebanonOn November 19, 2013, the Iranian Embassy in Beirut was bombed twice by a Sunni al Qaida affiliate, the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, resulting in the death of 30 and injury to more than 100. The Brigades, named after a Palestinian ideologue, was motivated by the desire to avenge the support extended by Iran and the Hezbollah to Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad. Ironically, Majid al-Majid, the al Qaida commander in Lebanon, who was arrested in connection with the Beirut incident, died recently in Lebanese army custody. Majid had pledged his allegiance to the al-Nusra front fighting for the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria. This web of conflict in Lebanon is enough to illustrate how various terrorist groups, although powered by the jihadist ideology, could either collaborate or work against one another. The equations also keep changing every now and then, contributing to avoidable confusion.
RussiaIslamic militancy continues to be a major concern to President Putin. Despite the massive force employed by him, the highly rebel-active provinces in the North Caucasus, especially Chechnya (which has a predominantly Sunni Muslim population living side by side with Russian orthodox Christians) and neighbouring Dagestan, harbour determined terrorists who fan out to different parts of the country to indulge in daring actions. Since 1991, when Chechnya formally launched its movement for independence, its dogged fighters have carried their aggressive operations right into the heart of Russia. The 1999 attacks of apartment buildings in Moscow and two southern cities resulted in 300 deaths. The second phase of conflict in 1999-2009 led the killing of about 15,000 Russian soldiers and 300,000 Chechens. The hostage-taking at a Moscow theatre in 2002 and in a school in Beslan (North Ossetia) accounted for more than 400 casualties. The action has spilled over to other republics such as Dagestan and Ingushetia as well. It is widely known that the Chechnya struggle has attracted Islamic militants from outside. A suspected group of Islamic militants from the Middle East with possible links to al Qaida is supposed to be fighting along with Chechens. It is against this backdrop that the two December 2013 deadly attacks -- one on a trolley bus and the other at a train station -- both in Volgograd, assume importance. The two suicide bombers were believed to have come the North Caucasus. There is speculation of a Saudi Arabia hand in the violence, because of that country's unconcealed annoyance over Russian support to Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad. Also relevant is the well known Saudi support to the Chechen separatist movement in the 1990s. There is tension among the Russian authorities that the Volgograd bombings should not be replicated during the February Winter Olympics in Sochi, which is just 400 miles from Volgograd. Significantly, Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarow had warned last July that the Sochi games was a Chechen target for attack.
Drought of data The obvious failure of experts to inspire a fresh strategy against terror can be traced mainly to the complexity flowing from political cross currents and intelligence inadequacies. Also, barring perhaps the Middle East, there is a near absence of a central direction to terrorist activity in the post-Bin Laden era that explains the drought of data regarding terrorist mechanics. It is only occasionally that we hear of the al Qaida Central and its directions to its affiliates scattered all over the world. This is an additional factor that has handicapped international efforts to strike at the roots of active terrorist outfits. Further, the regular turf war, which we had seen earlier only in respect of conventional crime between groups in each country as in the case of Syria and Libya, has added to the confusion. In my view, it is a sense of autonomy coupled with low-grade leadership of many groups that has promoted their recklessness, resulting in knee-jerk responses to events. This possibly explains the rising curve of violence that one sees in many regions.
What it is all about
- According to a study at the University of Maryland's National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism, during 2012 just three countries -- Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan -- accounted for 54 per cent of the terror attacks and 57 per cent of the fatalities
- Nearly 4,000 civilian casualties in the first half of 2013 is an index of the intensity of insurgent activity in Afghanistan
- Since 1991, when Chechnya formally launched its movement for independence, its dogged fighters have carried their aggressive operations right into the heart of Russia
- Barring perhaps the Middle East, there is a near absence of a central direction to terrorist activity in the post-Bin Laden era.
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It will not be wide of the mark to say, that beyond a broad consensus that the situation is dangerous and it warrants close monitoring. There is nothing much one can commend by way of policy or administrative intervention. Those in governments who look for a quick fix of what is becoming an intricate and galloping problem are naturally disappointed. Against this backdrop, the conscious involvement of civilian populations in counter-terrorism propaganda seems to be the most prudent course of action. This, I admit, is a painfully slow process, demanding extraordinary skill and patience. Its utility can, however, be not discounted. In the short run, however, it is the wide and imaginative spread of security forces on the field that would greatly help. Finally, the role of intelligence in counter-terrorism continues to be a matter of debate. We often hear of intelligence failures and the need to 'revamp' (a much abused expression) the machinery. There is no silver bullet here. Hard work backed by more than a modicum of aggression has the potential to succeed. Many intelligence agencies have committed mistakes while plodding. Sometimes they have been also guilty of overzealousness, leading to legal complications, as we saw recently in one of our States. Legislators and human rights activists have been annoyingly quick to protest against them. This is no reason, however, why we should scurry to tighten monitoring of intelligence organisations, a move which can sometimes cramp the style and speed of outfits like our own IB and RAW. This is a danger we should be wary of in these troubled times. The writer is a former Director of the CBI and the co-author of “Indian Mujahideen: Computational Analysis and Public Policy”, Springer (2013).
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