O P I N I O N S

EDITORIALS

Power game in Syria
Who bothers about humanitarian issues?
The world is watching with heightened anxiety the developing situation in Syria, an important Arab country faced with a crippling civil war. As the war between the rebels and government forces takes a toll of dozens of human lives almost every day —- during the past 18 months already over 18000 civilians have lost their lives —- people in large numbers are shifting to neighbouring countries.

Fall of an icon
A setback for cycling fans
Lance Edward Armstrong would have been a legend anyway. The winner of Tour de France a record seven consecutive times got accolades that included ABC Wide World of Sports Athlete of the Year (1999), the Prince of Asturias Award in Sports (2000) and Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year (2002).

Superstitious sarpanch
Treat it as murder
Pt Nehru had talked of developing “scientific temper” for building a modern society. Of course, that did not happen. But what is happening in the days of fast access to technology and medical help is shocking. A 12-year-old girl, suffering from high fever, was allegedly killed by a so-called faith healer because she believed the girl was possessed by demons. The faith healer was her own aunt, and the irony is that she also happens to be the sarpanch of Bhinder Kalan village in Moga district of Punjab.

• Thought for the Day

ARTICLE

From Washington to Waziristan
The latest US strategy in Afghanistan
by D. Suba Chandran
A series of events in the last few months highlight that the US is sticking to a plan as part of its final push and last stand in the Af-Pak region — both politically and militarily. The reopening of the NATO supply route, the proposed military operations on both sides of the Durand Line and designating the Haqqani network as a terrorist organisation seem to be a part of this plan. Will the US succeed in implementing this? How will the other actors in the region — Pakistan, Afghanistan and the various Taliban factions — respond?

MIDDLE

Calculus phobia
by K. K. Paul
A phobia is known to be a psychiatric term meaning an intense and irrational fear of a given situation, object or an organism. The Oxford list of word elements contains over 250 varieties of phobias, ranging from arachibutyrophobia, which means the fear of peanut butter sticking to the roof of one’s mouth, to the simple photophobia —the fear of exposure to light. Despite the list being quite elaborate, it appears to miss out on two phobias, which my friends have known and suffered since their childhood. One is the fear of lizards and the other is that of mathematics, more specifically, calculus.

OPED Defence

How India can counter cyber war in the Northeast
Maj-Gen J.S. Kataria (retd)
There was little or no warning about MMS/SMS creating a panic situation among people from the Northeast. Cyber space, a twentyfirst century bomb with unprecedented lethality, is the latest and chosen weapon to perpetuate communal disharmony and fear psychosis

EDITORIALS

Power game in Syria
Who bothers about humanitarian issues?

The world is watching with heightened anxiety the developing situation in Syria, an important Arab country faced with a crippling civil war. As the war between the rebels and government forces takes a toll of dozens of human lives almost every day —- during the past 18 months already over 18000 civilians have lost their lives —- people in large numbers are shifting to neighbouring countries. The exodus is accelerating with every passing day. People feel frustrated as they are not sure when the fighting that began in March last year will come to an end. It is difficult to survive under these circumstances as things of daily need are scarcely available.

Actually, the situation calls for immediate international intervention because of the humanitarian angle involved. The US and its allies have so far been making only statements to warn President Bashar al-Assad of dire consequences if civilian lives are threatened. But there is no end to the killing of people by government forces. The latest from President Obama is that the US would be forced to intervene militarily in the Syrian threatre if the Assad regime uses chemical and biological weapons to silence the people demanding an end to the dictatorial regime in Damascus. This is the “red line” for the US, which has already been crossed on a few occasions in the past as the Syrian regime has a big stockpile of such weapons of mass destruction. Yet the US is waiting for concrete proof for the Syrian forces having crossed the “red line”.

The crisis in Syria has been complicated by Russia and China, which have been using their veto power in the UN Security Council. They blocked a resolution moved by Arab neighbours of Syria for international invention on humanitarian grounds. Russia and China are not bothered about humanitarian issues; they are mainly interested in protecting their economic interests in Syria. Moscow and Beijing have issued a warning that they are “committed to the need to strictly adhere to the norms of international law… and not to allow their violation.” In the process, they have provided an excellent opportunity to Iran to play its sectarian game by supplying all kinds of weapons to the Assad regime. This game of protecting one’s narrow interests must end before it is too late.

Fall of an icon
A setback for cycling fans

Lance Edward Armstrong would have been a legend anyway. The winner of Tour de France a record seven consecutive times got accolades that included ABC Wide World of Sports Athlete of the Year (1999), the Prince of Asturias Award in Sports (2000) and Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year (2002). The way he fought testicular cancer cemented his iconic stature, as did all the work he did as the founder-chairman of the Lance Armstrong Foundation. All this came to a naught when he withdrew from an investigation by the US Anti-Doping Agency which had accused him on five counts. No matter how you look at it, the icon is damned and will lose his Tour de France titles as well as, possibly, an Olympic bronze.

It is really painful when heroes fall, since they make us think about our own judgements, that put them on the pedestal in the first place. Lance Armstrong earned his stature with a lot of hard work, talent and dedication to cycling, the sport of his choice. He excelled in it like a few others have, and won many a crown. Unfortunately, his success was a tainted one, in which performance-enhancing drugs played a role and ultimately led to his downfall.

Tour de France is one of the top cycling events in the world. It has a long and glorious history, but the ghost of performance-enhancing drugs goes back an equally long time, although it has been more noticeable since the late 1990s, as further scrutiny exposed many competitors, as many as a third of the top players, according to one study. Armstrong himself has been facing charges for a long time. He says he no longer wants to address the issue. “Today I turn the page,” said the former icon. Yes, the page has turned, but he is off the page of international cycling, from which he has been banned for life. A cautionary tale for the person who was lionised and feted the world over for his prowess on the cycling track, as well as the guts with which he faced the debilitating disease of cancer and emerged stronger after battling it. What a fall, indeed.

Superstitious sarpanch
Treat it as murder

Pt Nehru had talked of developing “scientific temper” for building a modern society. Of course, that did not happen. But what is happening in the days of fast access to technology and medical help is shocking. A 12-year-old girl, suffering from high fever, was allegedly killed by a so-called faith healer because she believed the girl was possessed by demons. The faith healer was her own aunt, and the irony is that she also happens to be the sarpanch of Bhinder Kalan village in Moga district of Punjab. As usual, there were heartless onlookers who watched this drama of ignorance and superstition at ‘Gugga Peer’, but none intervened. After the girl was dead and the family tried to hush up the matter, one witness came forward to give evidence, which was the sole saving grace.

Panchayat members are supposed to be the torch-bearers of education in rural India. If a woman sarpanch allegedly kills her own niece, in such an inhuman manner, it is left to anyone’s imagination what state of affairs such a village must have. In Punjab, some committed voluntary organisations have also been carrying out Vigyan jaththas to the rural areas on a regular basis to educate people about science and to remove their superstitious beliefs. These should also be strengthened.

Though most incidents of superstition are not as fatal as the one that led to the death of the 12- year- old, they are a part of the Indian milieu. Our star cricketers carry their lucky talismans, our film stars change their name spellings, our caste-based system is a lot about superstition that gained legitimacy by its wider acceptance. Honour killings, female foeticide, dowry, etc, remind us of how less we depend on logic in our day-to-day life. But crimes like the killing of the girl need to be dealt with sternly.

Thought for the Day

Enthusiasm moves the world. — Arthur Balfour

ARTICLE

From Washington to Waziristan
The latest US strategy in Afghanistan
by D. Suba Chandran

A series of events in the last few months highlight that the US is sticking to a plan as part of its final push and last stand in the Af-Pak region — both politically and militarily. The reopening of the NATO supply route, the proposed military operations on both sides of the Durand Line and designating the Haqqani network as a terrorist organisation seem to be a part of this plan. Will the US succeed in implementing this? How will the other actors in the region — Pakistan, Afghanistan and the various Taliban factions — respond?

The components of the American plan — from Washington to Waziristan — can be broken down into parts for analysis. An essential part of this plan is to rework its relationship with Pakistan which hit an all-time low following a series of events/issues in 2011, including the killing of Osama bin Laden, Raymond Davis, and Pakistani soldiers in two military posts across the Durand Line and the follow-up closure of NATO supply routes by Pakistan.

By the beginning of 2012, Pakistan made it clear that unless there is an apology for the Salala attack and an end to drone attacks in the FATA, the NATO supply routes would not be reopened. As a response, the US froze the coalition supply fund to Pakistan and refused to stop the drone attacks. The thaw in the relations between the two countries started after the Chicago summit in May, especially after the disastrous visit by Zardari to the US.

The US by that time realised to have a meaningful exit in 2014, Pakistan’s political support is essential and, militarily, it is even more important to reopen the NATO supply routes from Karachi to Afghanistan via Chaman and Torkham. On the other hand, Pakistan, facing an economic crisis and political isolation at the international level, also realised the need to get the coalition funds and to open the NATO supply routes. American apology remained the main issue at that time.

The back channel diplomacy, according to a New York Times report, was initiated by the US and Pakistan after the Chicago summit. Led by Thomas Nides, Clinton’s Deputy, and Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, a former World Bank employee and now the Finance Minister of Pakistan, this back channel seem to have met on several occasions since May 2012, including a crucial meeting in Islamabad with Gen Ashfaque Kayani. After exchanging multiple drafts, the apology note was accepted by both parties, which was formally conveyed in early July by Hillary Clinton to Hina Rabbani Khar, the Foreign Minister of Pakistan.

The apology was followed by a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Pakistan on the reopening the NATO supply routes during the same month. The US had rejected the transit fee and the exorbitant proposal to charge $ 5000 per container, but agreed to pay $ 250 per container as customs tax. Following the MoU, the US released the coalition supply fund — close to $ 1.2 billion.

After the apology and the MoU, the most important development between the US and Pakistan took place during the first week of August — the visit of Lt-Gen Zahirul Islam, the ISI chief, to Washington. Three important decisions seem to have been finalised between the two countries during this visit. First was the rejection of Pakistan’s demand to stop cross-border drone attacks led by the US. Pakistan proposed to use its fighter aircraft to do the same, after its earlier demand to conduct joint drone attacks with the US. Washington seems to have succeeded in pressurising Pakistan that the US would continue with its drone attacks in the FATA.

The second most important decision taken during this visit by the ISI chief seems to be joint military operations across the Durand Line. While Pakistan has rejected the idea of “joint” military operations, it has agreed for “co-ordinated” military operations across the Durand Line. The genesis of the impending military operations in North Waziristan by Pakistan’s military seems to have finalised during this meeting.

The third important decision which also seems to have been arrived at during this visit was to designate the Haqqani network as a terrorist organisation by the US. Though it was an American decision, it is believed the US consulted Pakistan before taking this significant decision.

Meanwhile, there were numerous visits by senior American military officials and substantial discussion with Gen Kayani. Finally, Pakistan had agreed to initiate a military operation in North Waziristan; the decision was arrived at before the Taliban attack on Kamra airbase in Pakistan. With Pakistan agreeing to what the US wants, Washington seems to be ready for a final military push in Afghanistan. Perhaps, as a military romantic would explain, it may be the last stand.

How far will the US be able to achieve in this final push? What is likely to be the response from Pakistan, Afghanistan and the various Taliban factions?

The response from Pakistan seems to be positive, at least till now. Gen Kayani’s speech at Kakul, Pakistan’s military academy, on the eve of their independence day should be seen against this backdrop. His statement reflecting that extremism is their problem now, hence the fight against the militants is their war, seems to be a new beginning from the earlier pronouncements that it was not their war. The speech is also a warning for the preparation for a new military operation in North Waziristan. Though he had rejected that there would be no “joint” military operations, Pakistan would undertake “co-ordinated” military actions. This means there would be two simultaneous military operations across the Durand Line - led by the US within Afghanistan, and by Pakistan in the FATA.

While the above assertion is a positive development in terms of Pakistan owning up the war, one is not sure how wide the rest of Pakistan’s military share the enthusiasm and zeal of Gen Kayani in believing that it is their war now. The rest of civil society is deeply divided, with a vociferous majority still convinced that Pakistan should not fight an American war inside, and there should be “indigenous” solutions to internal problems, and not imposed from Washington. In fact, the statement by Panetta from the US, that there would be military operations across the Durand Line has not gone well within Pakistan.

The Pakistan military’s response to coordinated operations against the Taliban factions across the Durand Line would heavily depend on public opinion. While the moderates within Pakistan have been advocating a decisive push against the militants, but they are a small minority, mostly belonging to the elite sections, musing in English newspapers. The electronic media seems to have been overtaken by the hardliners, as the debate within Pakistan would indicate. A section within the military and the ISI having deep contacts with the militant groups would find it difficult to support such a military operation whole-heartedly. If anything, Pakistan’s military response would be half-hearted, based on their immediate interests within Pakistan and long-term interests in Afghanistan.

How would the Taliban led by Mullah Omar and the Haqqani network respond to the final push by the US? The TTP has already made a statement with its attack in Kamra. It would continue with such high-profile attacks within Pakistan if the military operations in North Waziristan get deepened. Either, it will engage in a series of pitched battles in the mountainous Waziristan region or disappear as the Taliban did after the American entry in Afghanistan, and pick up their war in a place and time according to their choosing.

Designating the Haqqani network as a terrorist organisation would also mean the secret negotiations between the US and the Taliban have failed now; else why should the US wait until mid-2012 to designate the Haqqani network as a terrorist organisation? This means the Taliban factions would up the ante in Afghanistan and request the TTP to disrupt the NATO supply line within Pakistan.

The American strategy seems to be clear. It is militarily getting ready for a final push and the last stand in Afghanistan. The much talked about political solution seems to be a distant dream. But the response is not likely to be positive. Violent days are ahead in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The writer is Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi.

MIDDLE

Calculus phobia
by K. K. Paul

A phobia is known to be a psychiatric term meaning an intense and irrational fear of a given situation, object or an organism. The Oxford list of word elements contains over 250 varieties of phobias, ranging from arachibutyrophobia, which means the fear of peanut butter sticking to the roof of one’s mouth, to the simple photophobia —the fear of exposure to light. Despite the list being quite elaborate, it appears to miss out on two phobias, which my friends have known and suffered since their childhood. One is the fear of lizards and the other is that of mathematics, more specifically, calculus.

It is a well-known historical fact that one of the causes of World War I was the Anglo-German rivalry during the later half of the nineteenth century. In fact, according to one view, this rivalry really began more than a century earlier with the debate whether calculus was the brainchild of Sir Isaac Newton or the celebrated German philosopher-scientist Wilhelm Gottfried Leibniz. Even as the debate has continued to date, in between, one quiet Swiss scientist, Johan Bernoulli, took some credit away from them, for his calculus of variations. Be that as it may, till the advent of scientific calculators in the early seventies, my friend continued to be tormented by calculus.

Over the years, the dark thoughts around calculus were all but forgotten, till a few days ago. During this summer, on a particularly hot day a call was received from him, late in the evening, of a medical emergency. By the time one reached his place, he was writhing in pain which seemed to increase by the minute. There was no option but to evacuate him to the hospital where the emergency doctor gave him a shot of a sedative, admitted him and recommended investigations. Next morning, as the specialists arrived, the threat of the dreaded calculus loomed large once again. The signs were ominous as the doctors were overheard discussing something about calculus, only to explain later that a stone in the kidney is known in medical terms as a renal calculi and that it had nothing to do with the mathematical calculus. But the chain of painful memories of the college days had already been revived. One was left wondering why not call it simply a stone or even a pebble? Why call it a calculi? So, now the problem was how to finally exorcise this calculi once and for all. The doctors confidently informed that it would be a simple procedure and the patient could go home by the evening.

On the appointed day, the doctor, in spite of his best efforts, failed to locate the elusive stone which kept playing hide and seek. As a result, perhaps out of sheer frustration, the doctor operated my friend for the prostate, which he said, as an afterthought, to be also ripe for a procedure. In the process, my friend must have established some kind of a record for having been admitted for a kidney stone but instead getting discharged minus his prostate and, of course, the stone being still comfortably lurking around in the kidney. As the pain continued to persist from severe to acute to unbearable, the doctors gave a fresh date and this time thought of crushing the stone through lithotripsy. Yet again the calculus phobia prevailed, the stone remaining elusive.

And even as my friend has been given a fresh date for the operation, one is left wondering if there was any statistical predictability about those dreading calculus in college, showing a tendency of developing a renal calculi in their later stages of life.

OPED defence

How India can counter cyber war in the Northeast
Maj-Gen J.S. Kataria (retd)

There was little or no warning about MMS/SMS creating a panic situation among people from the Northeast. Cyber space, a twentyfirst century bomb with unprecedented lethality, is the latest and chosen weapon to perpetuate communal disharmony and fear psychosis

Security personnel keeping vigil in violence-hit Dhubri district of Assam earlier this month. The tsunami of violence that has hit the nation indicates that the situation is being exploited by inimical forces to keep India away from the path of peace, harmony and growth. Photo: PTI

The geo-political importance of Assam in the national security strategy of India is apparently neither understood nor factored appropriately by our national security strategists. The state has been facing insurgency on account of ethnical assault by infiltration of muslim settlers from Bangladesh since independence. Despite the Rajiv Gandhi Assam Accord of 1985, successive governments have come and gone without implementing the accord. Virtually no deportation took place and infiltration continued unabated. People of this region experience strong sense of alienation on account of neglect and racialism.

The demographic landscape of various districts of Assam closest to the international border, starting with Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Barpeta and even Nalbari has changed dramatically due to its porous nature. The pressure caused on the land owned by the tribals and the original residents of Assam coupled with the political clout of settlers from Bangladesh have created an explosive amalgam -- the cause of many communal conflagrations. The rise of Badruddin Ajmal and his party, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is a pointer in this direction. The national political parties have been lacking in commitment, setting the stage for forces inimical to India for exploiting the situation.

FACTFILE Northeastern India comprises the states of Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland. Also known as the seven sisters, these are connected to the rest of India by a narrow strip of land known as the Siliguri Corridor that is bordered by Nepal on the west and Bangladesh on the east. The region has a population of about 40 million, comprising roughly four per cent of the national population. It has over 220 ethnic groups and equal number of dialects, making it a hugely diverse region. Northeast India is known for its unique culture, handicrafts, martial arts, and scenic beauty. The hills states are predominantly inhabited by tribal people. Migrants from Bangladesh, West Bengal, Tibet, Burma and Thailand have settled there over various periods of history, seriously altering the region's demography. During the British Raj, northeast was ruled as a part of the Bengal Province. Assam came into existence in 1874. At the time of Independence, the northeastern region consisted of Assam and the princely states of Manipur and Tripura. Nagaland was formed in 1963, Meghalaya in 1972, Arunachal Pradesh in 1975 and Mizoram in 1987, all carved out of Assam. Sikkim was integrated as the eighth North Eastern Council state in 2002. During the Raj, the northeastern states were isolated from their traditional trading partners like Bhutan, Myanmar and Indo-China. Partition in 1947 made this a landlocked region, exacerbating the isolation. Problems include insurgency, unemployment, and lack of infrastructure. Since the beginning of economic liberalisation in the 1990s, studies have shown that this region lags behind the other states in terms of development. The northeastern states have accused New Delhi of ignoring the issues concerning them. There have been a number of insurgent activities and regional movements in all parts of the northeast, requiring the deployment of the armed forces and paramilitary forces on internal security duties. At present insurgent activity continues in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura. The border dispute with China remains unresolved. While Chinese troops regularly intrude into Arunachal Pradesh, it stakes claim over the entire state, calling it Southern Tibet.

The people of Assam and Kokrajhar in particular have suffered from riots for a long time. Bodos, the largest tribe of Assam launched their agitation as early as 1960, as they were fearful of being reduced to a minority in their own land by Muslim settlers. The agitation peaked in the 80s and 90s. There were large scale riots and violence in 1993, 1994, 1996 and 1998. With the Bodo Accord of 2003, the Bodo Territorial Council (BTC) was formed and Bodoland Territorial Autonomous District (BTAD) delineated. BTAD included certain non Bodo majority areas to make it contiguous. Despite the formation of BTC, the pressure of outside settlers on the tribal land continued unabated.

The current conflagration in Kokrajhar, Assam a strategically important region of our country has generated ripples of Pan India unrest. The peaceful rally against the Assam riots in Mumbai suddenly took a violent turn - fingers are pointed at Badruddin and his party AIUDF. Cities like Pune, Hyderabad and Bangalore also witnessed violence. This coupled by the virulent doctored MMS/SMS - a communal cyber assault created fear psychosis amongst those from the north east living in various cities of India, leading to their exodus.

The origin of the doctored MMS/SMS and subsequent violence in various parts of the country dumbfounded one and all. The source of the doctored MMS/SMS has been traced to Pakistan -- call it a jihadi cyber attack or a well orchestrated information warfare campaign. Badruddin and his party are under the lens for their likely involvement in the Mumbai violence. This has cast a shadow on India's national security and its multi-cultural identity. Apparently, having lost in Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan is opening a new front and threatening India's eastern flank with an inexpensive option of a well planned information warfare.

The country is seeking answers to a few pertinent questions. Are the Assam riots and their ripple effect on India, an amalgam of our internal politicking exploited by the external force? Do the national security agencies have the technical wherewithal and the requisite expert resources to take counter measures for any such assaults in future?

Politicking to grab power at the cost of nation building is a norm with our political leaders. It is a bygone conclusion that our national/ state level political parties and their policies are responsible for the current impasse in Assam and elsewhere in the country. Yet, it was heartening to see our parliamentarians speak in one voice against the violence. The tsunami of violence that has hit the nation is indicative of the fact that the situation is being exploited by our inimical forces to keep India away from the path of peace, harmony and growth. The worry is that AIUDF and Badruddin should not be thriving on jihadi money and we may find that it is an extension of extremists from Pakistan- a replacement for the banned Indian Mujahedeen.

The application of 'propaganda through the Fifth Columnists' to destroy the adversary from within was first propagated by Kautilya in his magnum opus Arthashastra. Kautilya's philosophy of propaganda was a heady concoction of truth mixed with facts and options to destabilise the adversary from within. Kautilya has said, "An arrow may or may not kill but an idea can even kill in the womb". The current situation created through the MMS/SMS that originated from Pakistan, is a leaf out of Kautilya's Arthashastra and an attempt to destabilise India by creating communal disharmony. Information warfare which encompasses cyber attacks is the latest and chosen weapon of our adversary.

Information warfare is an American concept which came into fore during the 1991 Gulf War. It is a skilful use of information about the enemy aimed to demoralise the adversary's populace and the defence forces through propaganda as enunciated by Kautilya; using information technology and social media as the force-multiplier. The doctored MMS/SMS that caused fear psychosis amongst the people from the north east leading to their exodus is evidently the handiwork of specialists in the field. As usual, Pakistan is bound to deny the complicity of its state agencies.

It does not require great mind to understand our adversary's intentions behind the shrouded screen of doctored MMS/SMS. Over the years the demographic status of majority of the districts in Assam has shifted in favour of Muslim majority, largely the settlers from Bangladesh. Pakistan is clearly attempting to exploit the demographic shift, to open a new front.

India has its information warfare centres in place but the moot question is that are we ready to take on such threats. If the answer is yes, then why our intelligence agencies have had little or no warning of the MMS/SMS creating a panic situation amongst the people from the north east and the undue delay in tracking their place of origin. Why the intelligence again failed in giving advance warning on the developments that took place in Mumbai? Do we have international safeguards or treaties in place? We, the proud holders of Kautilya's heritage have not kept pace with time and application of knowledge in the present context. Our intelligence agencies and the national security strategists have to generate capability for execution and countering information warfare (propaganda), a twentyfirst century bomb with unprecedented destructive power, to safeguard the safety and security of our nation.

The writer has held critical operational positions in the Northeast and has also worked in the field of information warfare