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Mere words won’t
do Indian basmati for
China |
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Perils of plenty
Siachen – an
unending conflict
Poor relations!
Going green with
growth in Punjab
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Indian basmati for China
China
agreeing to import Indian basmati rice is a major achievement for New Delhi. It will help create a better climate for promoting trade between the two neighbours. There is a huge market in China for this aromatic variety of rice grown in Punjab, Haryana, UP and Uttarakhand. India’s concerted efforts to settle with China certain issues like pest control, which have been coming in the way of basmati export to that country, have finally borne fruit. These non-tariff barriers, in fact, should have been removed long ago in view of the desire on both sides to allow bilateral trade to grow despite the two neighbours having unsettled border disputes. Though India will have to compete with Pakistan in basmati trade with China, there is need for the two basmati-growing countries to formulate a joint strategy for marketing this most sought-after agricultural produce. Recently the Chief Executive of the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan agreed with the view that an India-Pakistan joint marketing strategy was the need of the hour. Though the two neighbours are the only competitors in basmati rice trade, their coming together for the removal of all kinds of non-tariff barriers will be in the larger interest of both. After all, this is an age of cooperative competition. Both India and Pakistan are faced with a major crisis so far as their basmati export to Iran is concerned because of the sanctions against Iran imposed by the UN, the US and the European Union to punish Teheran for its controversial nuclear programme. Gulf-based banks are refusing to provide the letters-of-credit facility for trade with Iran. India will be a major loser as Iran is the biggest buyer of the Indian basmati. Of the total 2.2 million tonnes of basmati that India exports to nearly 100 countries annually, one million tonnes go to Iran. The threat of trade with Iran getting difficult is another reason why India has to explore new markets for its basmati. If basmati exports to China pick up and this aromatic rice variety gets new markets like those in Mexico and the Central Asian states, the loss of the Iranian market can be more than compensated.
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Perils of plenty
Twin
pregnancies are the result of a complex interaction of genetic and environmental determinants. But, the sudden rise in their ratio has sent worrying signals. The issue has given birth to an area of specialised research the world over. Yet, no data is available at the national level in our country to ascertain the quantum of this problem. This is despite the fact that a small village in North Kerala, Kodinhi in Malappuram district, made headlines in major science and medical journals for producing the highest number of twins — 230 pairs in a village of 2000 families. Though this has attracted interest of a number of academics and researchers, so far the mystery has not been solved for lack of interest of the local medical fraternity. As the percentage of infertile couples grows, due to multiple socio-economic factors, so grows the number of multiple pregnancies due to different kinds of hormonal treatment induced to enhance fertility. About 25 to 30 per cent of all IVF ( In-vitro fertilisation) pregnancies result in multiple births. A survey conducted in 1998 on 2906 IVF multiple births revealed that 80 to 87 per cent births were of twins, about 17.48 per cent of triplets and 1.65 per cent quadruplets. In fact in the US twin birth rate rose 76 per cent from 1980 through 2009, from 18.9 to 33.3 per 1,000 births. Studies conducted in the Uk, Canada and Scandinavian countries reflect the same trend. These startling figures are telltale. One, that the infertile couples have better chances of experiencing parenthood. But, on the flip side, many couples run the risk of getting too many children at a time. One of the twins often tends to be under weight and weak, and in the Indian context anaemic too. Secondly, the ratio of growth of triplets is higher than that of twins. For many poor couples, who wish to have a child, chances of getting too many should be eliminated by advanced research in fertility drugs.
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If a building becomes architecture, then it is art. — Arne Jacobsen
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Siachen – an unending conflict
Pakistan’s military appears to have finally realized the futility of continued confrontation with India at the Siachen Glacier. There are perhaps a number of factors which have brought about this change of heart. Cooling of relations with the United States of America, economic distress, internal threat from terrorism and the loss of nearly 150 lives at Gyari seem to spur this new thinking. The avalanche hit the military camp in the early hours of April 7. The dead at Gyari are buried under thousands of tonnes of snow and it will be some time before their bodies can be dug out and given proper burial. This tragedy seems to have created a ground swell in the country against aimless confrontation with India at this most inhospitable terrain. The 1947-48 operations in J and K ended by delineating the Cease-Fire Line (CFL) under the aegis of the U N (Karachi Agreement ) only up to Point NJ 9842 on the Saltoro Range in the area of Shyok Valley (South of Siachen Glacier). Beyond Point NJ 9842, the CFL is meant to run ‘thence North to the glaciers’. While the entire area is glaciated, it is the wording, ‘thence North’ (grid North/magnetic North or generally North!) which determines the specific line and direction. According to India, this line runs along the Saltoro Range, (North of Pt NJ 8942 ) whereas Pakistan has been interpreting the line to run towards the Karakoram Pass (North-Eastwards) Pakistan had been sending international expeditions across the Siachen to the peaks east of it. During April 1984 intelligence reports indicated that the Pakistan Army was geared up to occupy the Saltoro Range which runs along the Western flank of the Siachen. The Indian Army realising the import of this move and the subsequent difficulties of dislodging the Pakistan Army from Saltoro Range, preempted the Pakistan Army and occupied this mountain range. Since then the Pakistan Army has made many unsuccessful attempts, at great cost, to gain a foothold on the Saltoro Range. Finally, it did succeed by landing troops by helicopters at an impossible peak and called this post, ‘Quaid’. It was a Herculian task for the Indian Army to evict Pakistani troops from this post and in the process lost a number of soldiers and officers. An Indian post was established on this peak and named ‘Bana Post’ after the JCO who led the final charge to capture ‘Quaid’. Some Indian defence analysts have tried to project the Siachen as an area of great strategic importance. To the west of it (across the Saltoro Range ) is the road linking Gilgit with Zinjiang and to the north-east is the important Karakoram Pass. To the north is the Shaksgam Valley (part of J and K) ceded to China by Pakistan. It is often contended by experts that the Siachen region would facilitate a link-up between POK and China, across the Karakoram Pass, on one side and for India to intercept the Gilgit -Zinjiang road on the other. The Gilgit-Zinjiang road is nearly 250 km across the most forbidding terrain. The Karakoram Pass from the glacier is across a group of first magnitude peaks in the world, which only a small mountaineering expedition can hope to traverse. The Shaksgam valley across the Indra Col (named by the Workman couple who, crossing over the Bilafondla Pass on the Saltoro Range, in 1911-12, camped on the Siachen and named it after goddess Lakshmi) on the Karakoram Range is inaccessible from the glacier region. The route to the Karakoram Pass emanates from the Nubra valley and is well away from the glacier. Another route is along the Shyok River. So, a viable link-up between POK and Tibet across the Karakoram Pass is not feasible. In any case, Indian troops are camped at Daulat-Beg Oldi, just below the Karakoram Pass. Terrain and climate at the Saltoro Range is most forbidding where even a few steps can leave one gasping for breath. Some Indian posts are at heights above 21,000 feet. Unable to evacuate due to bad weather, etc, the Indian Army, over the years, has lost many lives due to high altitude sickness. The cold gets to one’s bones and the constant fear of being afflicted by one of those high- altitude sicknesses during night or bad weather and the impossibility of being evacuated under such conditions has a depressing psychological effect on the mind. Indian troops and their officers have endured these hardships and afflictions for 28 years with rare stoicism and forbearance. Of late, there have been renewed attempts by India to improve relations with Pakistan through dialogue and trade. Both sides appear to realise the futility of maintaining a hostile attitude towards each other. The policy of exporting terrorism to India has finally recoiled on Pakistan itself. It is a case of chickens coming home to roost. This push to terrorism, its effect on the country’s economy due to the disturbed environment and excessive expenditure on defence has left its finances in dire straits. The last attempt to resolve the glacier issue got stalled on the requirement of authentication and demarking the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL) on maps, held by the two sides, before troops could be withdrawn and the area declared demilitarised. The Pakistan Army did not agree to this requirement. Perhaps due to the fact that all this while the Pakistan public has been made to believe that its army is in part occupation of the Siachen. Marking positions on the map would have exposed this lie. Further, the Indian Army has reason to suspect that once positions on the Saltoro Range are evacuated, Pakistan may occupy these and the cost in lives in taking these back will be prohibitive. There is some justification in the Indian Army’s apprehensions. Those of the Indian Army who have operated on the LoC in J and K invariably experienced trust deficit with the Pakistan Army. Since there are large gaps in Indian posts along the LoC, it has been a practice with the Pakistan Army to, now and then, ingress across the LoC into Indian territory and establish a post. It takes considerable effort and loss of life to evict such Pakistani posts. Therefore, there is some justification on the part of the Indian Army to be wary of entering into an agreement without iron-clad guarantees. Then there are larger issues which have created a climate of suspicion between the two countries. Pakistan feels that it was cheated out of the Saltoro Range in 1984 by India, and New Delhi has Kargil as a constant reminder of Islamabad’s perfidy. But it is time to shed this mindset and move forward. So many valuable lives have been lost to terrain and climate, on both sides, due to the inability of these two countries to resolve this not-so-intractable a problem. It has been India’s view that Pakistan’s defence policy towards this country is dictated by its army. Jolted by the latest tragedy at Gyari, and the groundswell at home against this costly adventure of hanging on to the idea of Siachen, the Pakistan Army appears to realise the futility of being at the most inhospitable terrain on earth, coupled with its inability to dislodge the Indian Army from the Saltoro Range. Gen Ashfaque Kayani, chief of the Pakistani military, has finally struck a reconciliatory note and appears amenable to a reasonable resolution of the Siachen problem. Here, perhaps, is an opportunity to get to grips with the Siachen issue and work out a reasonable and lasting solution of this
problem.
The writer is a former Deputy Chief of Army Staff.
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Poor relations! My
parents were among the invitees at a plush hotel that opened in Chandigarh recently. Big cars carrying the who’s who of the city were entering the portico. Many young and not so young women were vying to reach on time to have a glimpse of the top film star who was there to cut the ribbon! Suddenly, there was a commotion in the jostling crowd. I thought the star had arrived. But he was not there. Curious, I went closer and found that a not-so-young woman had created a scene of sorts when a gaggle of 20-something gibbering excitedly had asked her “auntie, allow us to go near the entrance”. That was perhaps enough to hurt her ego as she shouted at them, “How can you call me auntie? I am not that old.” As my mom knew that woman, she tried to console her but pain was visible in her eyes. I dismissed the incident as insignificant till we visited her later and found how the dreaded word “a” had created a serious mid-life crisis in her personality. The “auntie” bit was too much for her to bear! Were the best years of her prime youth over? Was she not attractive enough? Would nobody like to look at her now? My mom was naturally sympathetic and told her that “age takes its toll and a stage comes when they turn into invisible women and the word ‘a’ is attached to them.” It may be the age of perpetual youthful syndrome, an age when grandmothers are colouring their hair, taking help of plastic surgery, Botox, fillers and face-lifts to look younger. Like Alexander Pope’s Belinda, they smile looking into the mirror finding the same young woman staring back. Alas, poor relations shatter their myths! Relations like “auntie, uncle, bhabi, bhai sahib, didi and beta” seem to have become mere prefixes and adages and have no meaning for those who take recourse to these. I often wonder who has given licence to your fruit and vegetable vendors, hawkers, newspaper agents, milk men, provision store owners and shop boys, et al, to use all these with impunity. Little doubt, a woman in our neighbourhood refuses to buy vegetables from a particular vendor because he addresses her as “auntie”. That brings us to the vagaries of poor relations aptly exposed by the greatest exponent of personal essays, Charles Lamb, who described these relations as a “preposterous shadow lengthening in the noontide of our prosperity, a perpetually recurring mortification, a rent in your garment and the ounce of sour in a pound of sweet”. We have a family friend in Delhi. The woman used to call my dad “bhai sahib” till her husband was elevated as a commissioner. On a visit to them, we were surprised to find the woman addressing my dad as “Mr”, and not as “bhai sahib” as she did earlier. Another shock awaited us when during a visit to Dehradun, a spinster lady doctor friend of ours told me sternly “beta” never publicly address me as “auntie” but only as “mausi or booa”! I have for sure imbibed wisdom contained in a dialogue that my dad often speaks from an Amitabh Bachchan blockbuster, “Rishton ka sahara toh kamzor log liya karte hain” (Only the weak-willed take help of relationships). Down with poor
relations!
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Going green with growth in Punjab
There is need to revisit Punjab's growth model. An excessive use of chemicals has taken its toll on the natural resources and public health. Agriculture and industry should grow without hurting the environment and meet each other's needs.
The
first task before the new government in Punjab is to enable the State's economy to achieve a 10 percent growth rate. Punjab has enjoyed the distinction of leading the country in the field of economic development. Its economy had grown at about 5 percent between mid-1960s and early 1990s. No other state had experienced such high growth then. The State occupied the top rank in per capita income. After economic liberalisation, the rate of growth of the economy started decelerating. Punjab was relegated to the fifth position among major States in terms of per capita income. In this backdrop, the most important challenge before the new government is to take the Punjab economy to a higher growth trajectory. No doubt, 10 percent rate of growth looks ambitious but it is achievable. The economy of Punjab grew at the rate of 7.50 percent per annum during the first four years of the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-2012). A mix of following strategies can help Punjab achieve a double-digit rate of growth:
Farm-industry linkages The first priority of the new government should be to build a bridge between agriculture and industry. Much of the agricultural produce in raw form is exported to other States and inputs required for agriculture are imported from other States. The existing composition of both exports and imports is disadvantageous to Punjab. Economic agenda for Punjab
The right strategy is the promotion of agro-processing industries and industries supplying inputs for agriculture. Major agro-processing industries suitable for the State are flourmills, bakery units, rice-shellers, rice bran oil mills, cotton processing, textiles, surgical cotton, cattle feed, canned vegetable industries, juice-processing units, etc. These industries will not only add value to agricultural produce but also generate employment opportunities. Agro-processing industries will also mitigate the perennial problem of foodgrain storage in the State. Industries supplying inputs for agriculture include chemical fertilizers, tractors, diesel engines, electric motors, combine harvesters and other agricultural implements. In addition to agro-based industry, the State should also encourage foot-loose and knowledge-based industries like electronics, telecommunication and information technology, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, nano-technology, surgical and medical instruments, engineering and scientific instruments, consultancy services, etc. These industries will generate high-quality jobs for professionals in the State. In industrial sector, an integrated model patterned on the Japanese model of industrialisation should be adopted. In this model, small-scale units act as ancillary to large-scale parent units, which after getting semi-processed inputs or parts from small-scale units, assemble them and finally sell in the market. Under this model, the parent units also help the ancillary units with cutting-edge technology, upgradation of skills of workers and finance.
Diversify rural economy Agriculture in future will not be a major source of the growth. Diversification of crops; promotion of niche farming; contract farming; water management techniques, including sprinkler and drip irrigation; and marketing facilities for new crops can make handsome value addition to the State economy. Diversification of the rural economy in the form of promotion of allied activities like animal husbandry, forestry, agriculture-based small and informal enterprises can also help both the rural people and the State economy. Along with conventional sources of growth like agriculture and industry, Punjab needs to tap the potential of knowledge as a new driver of growth. For enabling knowledge to reach the threshold level of source of growth in the economy, it is essential to step up investment exponentially in social sectors like education and health. In the last budget the Punjab government increased the outlay on education by 52 percent. Health should also get a priority in the new budget. High doses of investment in the social sector will help in improving the quality and productivity of human resources in Punjab. Good quality human resources will become a reliable source of faster growth in the State. A better quality of human capital will improve employability of Punjabi youth. For improving the delivery of services in education and health sectors, it is also essential to adopt an integrated approach. In education, all the three levels of education, namely, primary, secondary and tertiary, should be integrated with each other. The same approach should be adopted in health sector too. Well-developed infrastructure holds the key to development. Among the Indian States, Punjab tops the overall index of infrastructure. For faster growth, quantitative as well as qualitative expansion in infrastructure is necessary. In future, the government should also accord priority to improve quality of infrastructure.
Growth and environment The second major task before the new government is to develop complimentary relationship between high growth and environment. The growth-centric model of development in Punjab has recklessly exploited and polluted environmental resources. This model did help the country attain self-sufficiency in foodgrains and the State to emerge supreme in economic prosperity. The model, however, has made the State's environmental resources like soil and water sick. The intensity of sickness of environmental resources has reached an alarming stage and started playing havoc with the lives of people. The growing incidences of chronic diseases like cancer in the Malwa belt are considered to be an outcome of excessive use of chemicals in commercialised agriculture. Punjab on a priority basis should review this model and remodel it with the twin objectives of high growth and environmental sustainability. Only environment-friendly cropping patterns, including organic crops, should be encouraged. The Organic Farming Council of Punjab along with the promotion of organic farming should also facilitate the certification of organic products in the State. Industrial development has also emerged as a culprit from the environmental sustainability perspective. Around 57 percent industries in Punjab fall in the red category, which highly pollutes the environment. The predominance of red-category industries strongly suggest making an environmental audit mandatory for all units. The regulatory machinery, especially in the form of Punjab Pollution Control Board, is in place. It, however, needs teeth and it should be freed from government control.
The debt burden The other economic challenges, which deserve attention of the new government include fiscal health of the economy, employment generation, Indo-Pakistan trade and governance. Improving the fiscal health of the economy should be a priority for the government. The debt burden, committed expenditure, fiscal deficit, additional resource mobilisation and unproductive expenditure need immediate attention of the policy-makers. At present the debt burden of Punjab is more than Rs.77,000 crore and its servicing in the form of interest payments per year is more than Rs. 6,000 crore. Debt servicing eats away a sizeable amount of financial resources. The high ratio of committed expenditure in the form of salaries, pensions and interests is another source of concern. It works out to be around 74 percent of the total revenue receipts. It leaves limited money for other services like education and health. Fiscal deficit also needs attention of the government. According to the previous budget, it was likely to be Rs. 8, 801.33 crore and it works out to be around 3.45 percent of the State income. Under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003, it should be 3 percent of the State income. For improving the fiscal health of the economy the new government should adopt measures like (i) tapping new tax sources (ii) improving tax compliance (iii) getting maximum resources from the Central government (iv) optimal use of Centrally sponsored schemes (v) restructuring of public enterprises for internal resource generation (vi) curbing unproductive expenditure (vi) strict adherence to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003.
Demographic dividend Punjab has more than 10 lakh unemployed youth. A provision of gainful employment through a mission mode would enable the State to fetch handsome demographic dividend and hence employment would emerge as a most reliable engine of growth. Productive employment to youth would also help in mitigating the menace of drug addiction among youth. Good governance holds the key to development. The government has already taken a number of policy initiatives, including the Punjab Right to Service Act, 2011, for improving the quality of governance. Mostly these citizen-centric initiatives cover the delivery of services to individual citizens. The governance reforms should also cover the time-bound delivery of services relating to industry, infrastructure and the social sector. Time-bound clearances for industrial, infrastructural and social sector projects can make Punjab an attractive destination for domestic and foreign capital. Finally, the combination of the citizen-centric and development-centric services will certainly help to make Punjab a model State of India. In sum, the most important issues to be dealt with include a faster and inclusive growth of the economy, improving the fiscal health of the economy, diversification of agriculture, strengthening backward and forward linkages between agriculture and industrial development, speedier industrialisation, enhancing investment in education and health, generation of productive employment, development of quality infrastructure and, above all, making the development process environment friendly.
The writer is the Dean, Faculty of Arts, Panjab University, Chandigarh
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