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Tsunami fear abates
Focus shifts to industry |
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The Kangra cuppa
Breaking bread with Zardari
Musings in space
Move before the earth does
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Tsunami fear abates
It
is a matter of immense relief that the powerful 8.6 magnitude earthquake with several aftershocks with Sumatra in Indonesia as the epicentre has not caused widespread destruction and loss of lives this time around like a devastating tsunami had in 2004 in several countries, including India. Mercifully, Wednesday’s earthquake, which was at a depth of 30 km under water, marked a horizontal shift of the ground as opposed to a vertical shift in which there is greater risk of displacement of water which could trigger a tsunami. Though the Indonesian authorities were still checking for damage and casualties in the interior, that there was no loss of life reported for several hours is an encouraging sign. There were indications this time that the disaster warning systems worked much better than in 2004 in Indonesia, Thailand and India. The reaction of the authorities in general was also more swift. People spontaneously began moving to higher ground in the affected Aceh province in Indonesia. In six Thai provinces near the coast the residents were quickly evacuated to higher ground. In India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands—the closest Indian territory to the epicentre-- the military put its aircraft and warships on high alert for carrying out relief and rescue operations.The Indian Navy was also ready to deal with any adverse situation. The Centre was in constant touch with officials in the coastal states of Andhra, Odisha and Tamil Nadu. There was large-scale evacuation from low-lying coastal areas. These are doubtlessly signs of greater maturity of response but considering that a tsunami did not hit India, it is difficult to visualise how the disaster management systems would have worked if a tsunami had struck. Would rescue and relief been prompt in coming? Tremors of varying intensity were felt in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and West Bengal apart from the Andaman and Nicobar islands but after a few tense hours the tsunami alert was withdrawn. This episode has passed but there is no cause for complacency. There should be no let-up in the degree of preparedness.
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Focus shifts to industry
The
inauguration of the integrated check post at Attari by Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram on the Baisakhi day will infuse fresh blood in anaemic Indo-Pakistan trade through the land route. It has lifted the business sentiment in Punjab, limitations of trade in 137 items notwithstanding. There is a renewed hope for industrial revival in Punjab. Private investment, both domestic and foreign, has by and large shunned Punjab. After winning elections on the development plank the Akali Dal-BJP leadership now seems keen on removing irritants that hold back industrial growth. Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal has set up a committee to remove administrative bottlenecks. Once again, there is a talk of time-bound, automatic, single-window clearances. The project approval board has been told to meet every month. Since land acquisition is a tedious, time-consuming process, the government plans to build a land bank for offering off-the-shelf industrial plots to business houses with environmental, power and change-in-land-use clearances in place. New industrial units can come up only if reasonably priced, developed land with required infrastructure is made available. New Industries Minister Anil Joshi has hinted at offering one-time settlement (OTS) to industrial loan defaulters. This amounts to over-stretching the helping hand. The government’s previous OTS in 2009 recovered only Rs 139 crore against the dues of Rs 4,500 crore. If such relief comes every three years, none would repay any loan in Punjab. There is a simple solution: auction properties of defaulters and hand these over to better entrepreneurs. Failed businesses should not be rescued with the taxpayers’ money. The government’s job is limited to creating a congenial business environment by arranging infrastructure and offering incentives on a par with other states. New businesses will not get help if state resources are misspent on nursing the sick ones. The government will be on test in meeting what is regarded as the biggest challenge before it: political and bureaucratic corruption. Industrialists and builders who bribe the powers-that-be recover their money many times over by stealing taxes or overcharging customers.
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The Kangra cuppa
A
gold medal winner at an 1886 London exhibition for its flavour and quality, the legendary Kangra tea is today not a brew mentioned in any sophisticated company. In fact, it is all but dead, with the total annual production down from 17 lakh kilos to 8 lakh kilos, a mere 0.01 per cent of the national tea production. The quality of the ageing bushes has gone down, as has the total land under tea in Kangra. A regional centre of the Tea Board of India is now being set up to revive the tea gardens in the area, most of which are now owned by small growers who cannot afford rejuvenation on their own. The decision to revive the cash crop is wise not only because of its heritage that dates farther back than apple in Himachal, but also because it can bring employment and cash income back to many families of the area. To save transportation cost to Kolkata, the government plans to set up a local procurement centre. The tea, registered under the Geographical Indications (GI) of Goods (Registration and Protection) Act, 1999, will have to be branded as such to create a buzz among connoisseurs. But before the processing industry dedicates itself to the peculiar flavour, yield per hectare — one-eighth the national average at present — will have to be improved to keep the units busy. That will also help draw more growers, many of who are selling off their land because of the high prices. Till Kangra tea makes a full commercial comeback, it will remain more a waft of history, which includes the heady days of supplies to Afghanistan via Amritsar, once a major trading centre for the brew that came in both green and black avatars. It is only fit that a tea museum is being set up at Palampur as part of the revival scheme. The government plans to raise the annual production to 20 lakh kilos in 10 years; that may prove to be a rather long brew, given that everything from the bush to skilled labour needs to be revived.
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Kites rise highest against the wind — not with it. — Winston Churchill
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Breaking bread with Zardari AN excellent consequence of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s most agreeable lunch to President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan before the latter’s private visit to the Khawja Moinuddin Chishti Dargah at Ajmer is that it put a stop to the media hype over the event, forecasting that it would be a “momentous occasion” or a “major” turning point. To say this is not to suggest that nothing worthwhile came out of the Manmohan-Zardari talks. The position is, in fact, exactly the opposite. Dr. Singh expressed “complete satisfaction” with the outcome of the conversation “covering all issues before us”. Mr. Zardari declared that the talks were “constructive and fruitful”. There is no doubt that at the end of the brief encounter the atmosphere was positive, relaxed and more conducive to the structured talks between the two countries at various levels that have already been planned. However, what the two leaders have wisely done is to refrain from arousing high expectations the like of which have led to great disappointments all too often in the past. As Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has pointed out pertinently, improving and normalising relations with Pakistan is a “process”, not a stray event. This uphill task will, by definition, be slow, if only because on the road to settlement of issues such as Kashmir, there are bound to be pitfalls and roadblocks. Pakistan’s current response to this country’s paramount concern, terrorism emanating from there, is, at best, evasive. On the other hand, Mr. Zardari’s visit to a celebrated Sufi shrine in India at a time when his country is swept by Islamic extremism has a significance of its own. As Foreign Secretary Ranjan Matthai told the media, Dr. Singh placed the issue of terrorism before his honoured guest “upfront”, emphasising that the perpetrators of 26/11 had to be punished, and that “something has to be done about Hafiz Saeed”, the mastermind of the Mumbai massacre. Almost immediately thereafter, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Mr Yousuf Raza Gilani, declared that no credible evidence against Hafiz Saeed that would hold in a court of law had yet been given to Pakistan, as if the Indian dossier and the evidence of David Coleman Headley were not worth anything. Evidently, this was his answer to both the Indian demand and America’s announcement of a bounty of $ 10 million to whoever would provide evidence to convict the Hafiz. The Minister of the Interior, Mr Rahman Malik, who was in President Zardari’s delegation, later repeated his Prime Minister verbatim. It is in this context that Mr. Zardari’s renewed invitation to the Prime Minister to visit Pakistan and his reply should be viewed. Dr. Singh said that he wanted to go to Pakistan and would do so at “appropriate time” and “mutual convenience” after “substantial preparations”. This is a polite version of his earlier statement at Seoul that he would go to the western neighbour after something “solid” had taken place. Mr. Zardari stated that he hoped to meet Dr Singh again “soon on Pakistani soil”. Unquestionably, the best outcome of the talks between the two leaders was their joint decision—if implemented—to review and reform the vexatious visa system that exists between India and Pakistan. Everyone on both sides of the subcontinental divide pays lip service to people-to-people contact and its blessings. But the two governments have made this contact egregiously difficult. Not to put any gloss on an ugly situation, the two ministries of foreign affairs have little say in the matter. Even heads of mission have no discretion any longer. The Ministry of Home Affairs in India and that of the interior in Pakistan are the final arbiters. In reality this means that Indo-Pak travel depends entirely on the whims of middle-level functionaries of the two intelligence bureaus. This is nothing but reciprocity in bloody-mindedness. It is no secret that the main impetus for doing away with rigorous restrictions on visas has come from the business community on both sides that have played an important role in the welcome development of reopening Indo-Pakistan trade that has been moribund for decades. Even now the extension to India of the Most Favoured Nation status (which really means equal treatment with other countries) has been held up because of hostile public opinion. But this problem is likely to be sorted out soon enough. However, easy access to visas must not be confined to the business community but extended to people at large. Security concerns are legitimate, indeed crucial. But when has a terrorist entered India on a visa? Headley is an exception, but he is an American. To revert to trade, the civilian government, headed by Mr. Zardari, deserves credit for de-linking trade from the “core issue of Kashmir” though it is clear that this could not have happened without a nod from the Army. How far the Army will go in backing normalisation of trade and other relations with India is not yet known. What lends an edge to this question is that Mr. Zardari is a Sindhi and the Army is dominated by the Punjabis who are more in tune with the jihadist voices that are screaming against the US, India and Israel. The reference to the Punjabi-Sindhi divide is not a red herring across the trail. Mr. Zardari’s son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who travelled with him and established a rapport with Rahul Gandhi, delivered a speech on the 33th anniversary of his grandfather, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s execution, complaining bitterly against the treatment meted out to the people from Sindh. Trade has always been the best means of promoting cooperation and friendship between any two countries that have serious disputes between them. This should explain why during the discussions in Delhi there was an encouraging mention of the India-China template. Despite a long-standing border dispute between Asia’s two largest countries – sadly, they have been unable even to delineate the Line of Actual Control – India-China trade has been increasing by leaps and bounds. China is indeed this country’s largest trading partner. Economic cooperation between the two in terms of investment in each other is also on the increase. And it makes sense that the countries that trade briskly with each other have an incentive not to trade
blows.
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Musings in space As the plane lifted itself from Delhi airport and soared high, a feeling of cruising in the space gripped me. The dust rising from India’s planes blocked the view of the land below till a blue sky started opening vistas of varying moods of the skyscape. The air journey from New Delhi to Frankfurt covers a number of countries in its sky lanes. Names of a few cities and countries like Afghanistan, Russia, Vienna and Frankfurt have kept me glued to the window. Afghanistan’s ranges of mountains, so rugged, so barren, appear to have been made by nature in a diabolical frame of mind. Looking menacingly upward with deep gorges that seemed faint and fearsome, these mountains are also almost unsurpassable. A long jump into the past made me reflect how these invincible mountains could allow the arrogant empire builder, Alexander, enter India in 326 BC; how they could make it possible for cruel Nadir Shah to invade India, plunder Delhi and escape with enormous wealth, including the famous peacock throne, leaving behind an unspeakable trail of mayhem. Again, how haughty Babar – a run-away princeling from his own native land – found his way into the Indian plains and lay the foundation of a long-lasting empire. Suddenly, this mood gives way to a vast expanse of clouds. The plane is flying over Russia. Having never been there before, I strained hard to get a glimpse of the landscape, but the vast expanse of clouds totally blocked the view like the famous ‘iron curtain’. Next the plane entered the space of countries less laden with snow. Caravans of clouds moving majestically in the direction of the unknown destinations looked like enormous piles of cotton spun by the invisible spinner above. Sometimes the plane charges into the fortresses of clouds in its flight path, gets engulfed in their thick mass and sends panic waves into the hearts of unsuspecting passengers when it shakes while combating the clouds. Yet another different view emerges: this time of European landscape. It is the month of March; Europe is on the threshold of spring. Snow-capped mountains slowly coming to bloom in their declivities reaching out to rivers shining in the sun, the beauty of geometrically demarcated fields – as it were – adds to this unique canvas. Drinking deep of this fascinating spectacle, I couldn’t help reflecting again how the two world wars were fought in this vast arena of beautiful landscapes. Why could nature not advise and hold Hitler from pogroms of the Jews and how could vast armies of the allied forces land here to kill and die? I was far into the space cut off from the realities of the ground – a temporary relief from the stress of unrelieved routine officialdom. But then came the final announcement from the pilot; the descent for Frankfurt has started. I could feel the slow nosedive and release of wheels from the undercarriage of the plane. Slowly and steadily the plane touched the runway and let loose a thunderous noise, different from its almost motionless and quiet flight in the space. Different skyscapes, fleeting glimpses of varying landscapes from an altitude providing an overview of the past and the present, both delightful and depressing, are what this flight journey turned out to be. As the plane came to a slow halt and aligned itself to the aerobridge, I walked out thinking why the world is not so one and peaceful on the planet earth as it appears from the
space!
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Move before the earth does As
panic swept across India’s eastern coast in the aftermath of the massive 8.6 magnitude earthquake off the Indonesian coast on Wednesday, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) set off the biggest disaster drill the country has seen since the body was created.
The alert brought back memories of the devastating tsunami of 2004, in which 2.4 lakh people were killed worldwide. Before that, among the major quakes India has seen was the one on April 4, 1905, an 8.25 rocker that hit the Kangra region in Himachal. It had killed around 20,000 people. Then there were two very large magnitude earthquakes in Bihar (1934) and Assam (1950). Through these earthquakes and the authorities’ response to those, a “quake philosophy” has been evolving continuously. Till the end of last century, the essential administrative approach was, “Earthquakes cannot be predicted.” This attitude experienced a thaw sometime after the disastrous Bhuj earthquake of magnitude 8.0 on January 26, 2001. The administration started considering how to save lives and manage disaster. After Bhuj, there were two major seismic events — the Andaman (Sumatran) earthquake-cum-tsunami of December 26, 2004, and the Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005. The disaster management bodies were not able to do anything to prevent deaths. Even a moderate earthquake of magnitude 6.8 on September 18, 2011, in Sikkim was a disaster. What went wrong? Was the planning wrong or the staff incompetent; lack of funds; red tape? The answer is no. Most disaster management plans have thus far focused on the post-seismic period of rescue, rehabilitation and reconstruction (RRR). In a typical scenario, seismic shaking of moderate to large earthquakes lasts 35-45 seconds. If that time is divided into three parts of 12-15 seconds, then during the first part, disaster managers are highly excited watching the terrain shake. During the second part, they are in awe to see the collapse of structures. The third part has them near tears, seeing the horrific deaths and destruction. After the shaking stops, they rush to affected sites with stretchers, medicine, rescue equipment, etc. All this amounts to rescue, not prevention. Tragically, this is all that disaster management is about at present. There is no activity during the pre-seismic and co-seismic period. The problem has attained severe dimensions. The Geological Survey of India (GSI), in a report presented to the Uttarakhand Government in July 2007, observed that the probability of occurrence of a large magnitude earthquake — more than magnitude 8.0 — in Uttarakhand was as high as 0.98%. In seismological lexicon, one may say that as the magnitude of the probabilistically predicted earthquake is very large, the statement is equally applicable to Himachal Pradesh. Such an earthquake could severely affect an area of about 200 km radius or more. It could be said that the probability of occurrence of a large-magnitude earthquake in the conglomerate of Uttarakhand and Himachal is as high as 0.98%.
Plan in advance Under such unforeseen conditions what should be done? Our managers need to plan some activities during the pre-seismic period and also discuss what should be done during the co-seismic period. Take every section of society in confidence and explain to them the limits of earthquake prediction and how the administration plans to overcome the odds. It is a fact that the subject of earthquake prediction has not reached perfection. It is difficult to predict earthquakes. On the other hand, if the administration predicts an earthquake, and it does not occur, the administration has to face public criticism. As things stand today, governments need not predict earthquakes. The best way for disaster management offices is to create seismic awareness, inform people about reliable seismic precursors — events and indicators that may be noted ahead of an impending earthquake. Earthquake education and evacuation before an event would definitely help save lives. The Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) has released a four-page pamphlet on reliable seismic precursors for the common man to notice. It gives information about the precursors with a proper time frame —details about reliable indicators that would be seen two-four days in advance; a day in advance; and what would be seen 20, 15, 10, 2, and half hour before an earthquake? If such precursors are noticed sequentially, observed and recorded at several locations spaced over a large distance, then there is a good chance that an earthquake would occur within the next few hours. And action to prevent severe loss to life and property can begin. The ASDMA is going to distribute this pamphlet after translating it in Assamese among the gram panchayats. It is hoped that the states of Himachal and Uttarakhand too would take initiatives in creating seismic awareness on the lines of Assam, and a similar pamphlet would be translated in Hindi and distributed among villages.
Science and sense In addition to the reliable seismic precursors, official agencies continue to monitor various geophysical, geological, seismological parameters and also examine the latest data from satellites on earthquake-related parameters. Proper clubbing of seismic awareness and scientific observation can definitely help in mitigating seismic disasters. The subject of earthquake prediction has made some good advances since 1990. Pioneering efforts are being made by Chinese researchers. Yet, it has not been possible to accurately predict earthquakes vis-à-vis all related parameters of time, space and magnitude. This author visited China after the destructive Sichuan earthquake of May 8, 2008, which had a toll of about 80,000 lives. Discussions with Chinese seismic experts brought it out that efforts of disaster management should centre on creating public awareness about earthquakes. A number of researchers have been recording conventional parameters as precursors. During the past decade, the use of scientific data obtained from satellites has also been found useful. There is “outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR)” and change in the Total Electron Content (TEC) in the ionosphere just before an earthquake. It is also a fact that the known age-old precursors such as abnormal animal behaviour are also very reliable. Since the Spitak (Armenia) earthquake of December 1988, observation of abnormal human behaviour has been found to be significant. Just as animals get disturbed 10-12 hours before an earthquake, so do humans. Human health gets suddenly disturbed. About a day before an earthquake, an abrupt rise is seen in psychosomatic disorders and diseases such as blood pressure, heart trouble, vomiting, headache, migraine and uneasiness. The number of deliveries and OPD (put-patient department) patients increase five to seven times. This observation from Spitak was verified during the post-seismic studies at Latur. On an average, there were three or four deliveries at Latur Civil Hospital. But on the penultimate and ultimate days of the earthquake, the figures were 17 and 21, respectively. The abnormal animal and human parameters are of short duration and appear only a few hours before the occurrence of an earthquake. As such, these are more reliable. The abnormal behaviour is due to a sharp rise in the number of charged particles in the atmosphere of the potential epicentre area. The world scientific community is trying hard to help prevent loss of life in earthquakes. Recently, a non-profit organisation, the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center (IEVPC), started work on this in Orlando, Florida, in the US. We cannot stop earthquakes. But we definitely can foresee and plan to mitigate and reduce the consequences. The writer is a research seismologist.
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Various state governments were requested to set up a disaster management office. At the Government of India level, two institutes were set up in New Delhi — the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) and the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). The aim was to mitigate the damage potential of natural disasters in future. For once, the subject of disaster management had been taken seriously at the governmental level. However, subsequent earthquakes proved that the organisations were not able to check disasters.
