The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

ARTICLE

India’s foreign & strategic policy
A document that can stimulate national debate
by S. Nihal Singh

Eight wise men — an academic, an economist, a retired army man, a former foreign secretary, the Adhaar man and a journalist — have been deliberating for some time on what India’s foreign and strategic policy over the next decade should be. They have produced a 64-page document that is a path-breaker in some respects and, despite its somewhat absurd title, “Nonalignment 2.0”, is a rare stimulant for national debate.

Some of the prescriptions, like motherhood and apple pie, are self-evident. But there are a number of striking perspectives, some home-truths for policy-makers and many nuanced approaches that are refreshingly frank. The premise is that in today’s turbulent and changing world India as a major significant power should reorient its policies to take advantage of the opportunities and avoid the pitfalls.

India’s economic success in the last decade presupposes a greater economic engagement with the world entailing the need to secure energy, keep open shipping lanes, protect Indian labour’s rights abroad and ensure trade access. But we are living in a new world with the Cold War behind us, with several powers, in addition the United States and China, asserting their interests.

But the legacy of non-alignment, apposite as it was in the early days of Independence by giving a militarily weak India a world perch above its weight, also reinforced the Indian psyche that traditionally tips towards passivity. If India is to rise to its potential and warn unfriendly countries that there would be costs to working against New Delhi, it must stand up and speak up.

It is an axiom that India’s main theatre of operation is Asia, which, with its new growth rates and China’s accretion of power, will not only be a focus for the world but also be a theatre of competition for outside powers. Nor is it in doubt that China will impinge upon Indian interests in various ways but, in the collective view of its authors, the answer does not lie in a stridently anti-China policy; rather, it is in seeking common areas while keeping its powder dry.

The wise men believe that China is not inclined to resolve the long-running boundary dispute in the short term, and since it has advantage over India along the land boundary, singly and in conjunction with Pakistan, it is in New Delhi’s interest to concentrate on India’s strength in terms of concentration on deploying and augmenting its posture in the Indian Ocean, where it has an advantage.

Second, India cannot aspire to a major-power status without managing its relationships with the other countries of South Asia, difficult as the India-Pakistan relationship is. In the authors’ view, it is not productive to pursue a policy gyrating between comprehensive engagement and almost complete disengagement by linking it with Islamabad’s action on terrorism. There are other options to a policy that has been yielding diminishing returns. New Delhi should use mid-range options by employing positive and negative levers. For instance, it should make it clear to Islamabad that it has legitimate interests in working with other countries to ensure Afghanistan’s independence after the looming NATO withdrawal. But India should cultivate military-to-military relations and exchanges with Pakistan, despite the known hawks on the other side.

Significantly, the document believes that the traditional method of capturing and occupying territory in an Indo-Pakistani conflict is no longer relevant, given the possession of nuclear weapons by both sides. Rather, India should withdraw some forces from the Pakistan theatre to the Sino-Indian border. But the main objective should be to dominate the Indian Ocean. In seeking to bolster India’s power, it goes back to the hoary concept of a chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that has been resisted by so many in the armed forces.

West Asia, an imprecise description of the Middle East, is of obvious importance, given the scale of the country’s energy requirements, manpower export and trade. Against the backdrop of the year-long turmoil and changes in the region, the document asks for engaging both the constitutional authority and the democratic forces outside and against governments. Balancing relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran will prove difficult but is a necessary exercise, in view of India’s interests. The document supports the government’s opposition to Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, a subject on which there has been little public debate in the country.

Much thought is given in the document on the economic aspects of a country’s foreign and strategic policy. It is a truism today that economic relations greatly influence the conduct of foreign and security relations. In New Delhi’s case, the effort to meld economic aspects into the conduct of foreign policy needs structural and institutional changes that have yet to take place.

In a shrinking world, the importance of a plethora of international institutions is a fact of life. India’s attempt to secure a permanent UN Security Council seat, together with a group of countries, is part of a long-haul effort. Obviously, international bodies, both political and economic, need to be reorganised, given the vastly changed scenario. It is equally obvious that those in the driver’s seat will resist changes. But New Delhi should also exploit such regional institutions as BRICS and the G-20 grouping, a nod to the changing order.

But a country is as strong in pursuing foreign and security policy goals as is its domestic strength. Perhaps the most perspicacious chapter in the document is on internal security. With refreshing candour, it lists the failures: state abdication of authority, the state as predator, the state’s failure to be impartial, concluding, “But if the state cannot credibly project impartiality in its investigations, prosecution and justice, it will remain at risk internally”. It talks about problem areas — Kashmir and the North-East — and suggests a re-look at the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) suggesting that it has “become a symbol of permanent political estrangement”. The document also points to there being “considerable disquiet that representative government is not translating into responsive government”.

All in all, “Nonalignment 2.0” is highly to be commended for initiating a new trend in expounding policy issues and challenges for public debate without the veneer of official sophistry. One wishes the document were not composed in Babu English and had also focused on the pitfalls of conducting foreign policy on a shoestring. The country’s Foreign Service needs to be expanded at least ten-fold to permit it to perform all the jobs it is meant to.

Nonalignment 2.0/A Foreign and Strategic Policy for India in the Twenty-first Century: Sunil Khilnani, Rajiv Kumar, Bhanu Pratap Mehta. Lt.-Gen. Prakash Menon, Nandan Nilekani, Srinath Raghavan. Shyam Saran and Siddharth Vardarajan.

MIDDLE

A tale of two cities
by Maj-Gen G.G. Dwivedi (retd)

It is June 1, 1997. The giant electronic clock at the Tiananmen Square in Beijing, indicating days left for Hong Kong to join the “Motherland”, this day reads zero. In the evening the people flock to the famous square and break into “pre-planned spontaneous celebrations” under the strict vigil of the security personnel.

Tiananmen is the third largest square in the world. It is bounded by the Forbidden City, Great Hall of People, National Museum and Mao Zedong's Mausoleum. A witness to numerous historic events, it acquired hyper sensitive tag after the ruthless military crackdown on the pro-democracy protesters in June 1989. There on, the legendary square has been bracketed with the other two touchy Ts; Tibet and Taiwan.

Tiananmen is in special spotlight every March for two weeks, when the National People's Congress, the Chinese rubber stamp parliament, sits through the twin sessions (liang hui) at the Great Hall of People. Delegates from all over China descend on Beijing. Minority community representatives, attired in their traditional costumes, are much sought after for a photo shoot by the official press, to legitimise the Communist parliamentary credentials. An odd demonstrator who succeeds in breaking through the impregnable security cordon makes sensational news for the foreign media as any kind of demonstration is deemed to be anti-national in People's Republic of China. While for an ordinary citizen, life gets disrupted due to stringent restrictions during the annual ritual, for the business community it's boon as the delegates swarm the markets for the best brands.

Back home, in Delhi, it is the India Gate Lawns, where people unwind themselves. However, for genuine protests, Jantar Mantar and Sansad Marg are the select venues. As my office happened to be in the NDMC building overlooking the above two landmarks, one got the ring-side view of a vast variety of rallies, manifesting India's democratic prowess.

Typically, the battle procedure for rally starts with the arrival of an advance party an evening before. Through the night, these elements are busy putting up banners and fabricating placards. Police swings to action in the morning, with the erection of barricades. By forenoon, the protesters are ready to be unleashed after a sumptuous breakfast. The hawkers shake out having made a quick buck. There is commotion as the stars arrive. The masses begin chanting slogans, in tune with the hysterical rhythm set by the cheer leaders. The press also gets into action; camera crew displaying excellent gymnastic skills and TV anchors going ballistic, giving their blow-by-blow account. There is a brief tussle between the police and the protesters as some try to court arrest to steal the thunder.

After about an hour of the high drama, the rally loses steam. The protesters slowly begin to shake out; some head for Janpath to shop while others get into charted buses for sightseeing. The leaders vanish in their SUVs. The police pull down their barricades and traffic begins to move on smoothly.

Whereas a lone dissident in Tiananmen can give the leadership in Beijing a sleepless night and cost security men their job, in Delhi mass protests are an assurance that all is well with our democracy. In fact, the absence of rallies when Parliament is in session could be a source of anxiety for the intelligence agencies; construed as the proverbial lull before the storm.

So, this is a set of narratives, defining the tales of the capitals in two neighbouring countries.

OPED-DEFENCE

NORTH-EAST AT THE CROSSROADS
Maj Gen G.G. Dwivedi (retd)

THE North East Region (NER), at the time of independence was amongst the most prosperous parts of India. Ironically, over the years, it has lagged behind in nearly all important parameters of growth. Nestled in the Eastern Himalayas, comprising of eight contiguous states, it covers approximately 300,000 sq km with a population of over 46 million. Resource and culturally rich, NER’s unique social and governance structure has evolved over ages. Due to ethnic sub-nationalism and primordial values of 'tribal-land-autonomy', the locals have been in conflict with the state and other groups over the perceived insensitivity of the government, coupled with feeling of alienation through segregation, social deprivation, lack of development and exploitation.

Border Security Force personnel patrol the Indo-Bangladesh border along the strategically vital Siliguri Corridor. Large scale illegal immigration and infiltration of terrorists has had a huge impact on the demography and security situation in the north-eastern states.

With rapid developments in the regional landscape and a shift in the 'Centre of Gravity' from West to East, the growing geostrategic importance of NER is a reality that cannot be wished away. The sensitivity of this region in view of the security imperatives encompassing the unresolved border dispute with China, demographic implosion from Bangladesh and prolonged insurgency merit a holistic approach, along with fresh initiatives.

The pace of development in the north-east has been slow. Tribal and cultural constraints notwithstanding, the process of planned development commenced rather late. Despite massive Central assistance, the desired impact was not visible in the absence of coordinated planning and monitoring mechanism. Private sector, despite numerous initiatives, has not become a stake holder in the growth process.

Geo Strategic Landscape

History and geopolitical factors have turned NER into an area of immense strategic importance. With the international border stretches over 5100 kms along five countries, NER is connected to rest of the country with just a narrow stretch, the Siliguri Corridor, which leads to the 900 km long Brahmaputra Valley.

China claims a large chunk of Arunachal Pradesh, parts of Bhutan and disputes the boundary with Sikkim at places. Arunachal is a resource rich state, with huge hydro-electricity potential and large unproven oil/gas reserves. A Chinese offensive into the region, particularly through the Siliguri Corridor could cut off the NER. On the flip side, Arunachal offers suitable launch pads to Indian forces to cut the strategic Chinese Eastern Highway as also undertake offensive operations into Tibet. From the trade point view, Arunachal offers shortest route to China.

Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura have significant unexplored natural resources. These states virtually encircle Bangladesh. Assam is the industrial hub of the region as also a major communication centre. Brahmaputra Valley is of vital strategic importance for the defence of NER as it offers suitable sea level airfields and logistics bases to sustain major operations in the region.

Northern Myanmar bordering the NE states is of immense significance. It offers China suitable options to undertake operations against Indian defences and offsets the disadvantage of high altitude airfields in Tibet. Conversely the area provides India access to China and South East Asia. A number of local militant groups use Myanmar territory as sanctuaries.

Fast changing geopolitical scene in the neighbourhood provides exponential opportunities for the integrated development of NER. Numerous infrastructure projects like the Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway are aligned to pass through Manipur. Similarly, the envisaged inland waterways connectivity, including the Kaladan project with Myanmar, will have immense pay-offs.

Review of Security Environment

In terms of external threats, Chinese territorial claims, aggressive posturing coupled with rapid development of military infrastructure right up to the Line of Control, pose serious security concerns for India. Chinese frequent diplomatic rhetoric and refusal to move forward on the settlement of border dispute further add to India's anxiety. India has no option but to adopt suitable measures to counter this threat. Creating infrastructure by way of surface communications, airfields, inland water transportation, electronic networks and logistics wherewithal in NER merits an integrated approach on highest priority.

Uncontrolled migration from Bangladesh has seriously impacted the delicate demographic structure in NER, leading to wide spread insurgency and militant sub nationalism. A multi-prong approach encompassing integration of economic development of NER with Bangladesh, astute diplomacy and immigrant management will go a long way to ensure a peaceful and stable environment.

With positive political developments in Myanmar, the climate is conducive to address issues pertaining to insurgency, militant camps in its territory and control of drug trade through diplomatic, economic and cultural interaction. In turn, India needs to dispel Myanmar's fears over support to dissidents.

Regarding internal security, further balkanisation of the existing states on the demand of ethnic groups would be a grave error. This will give further impetus to splintering the fragile pluralistic civil society structure and contribute to the creation of more extremist groups. In Assam, the ULFA has been marginalised and s almost on its knees. The state needs to ensure the development of minorities. Rehabilitation of the youth who have given up arms poses a major challenge for the administration.

In Manipur, the situation remains complex due to ethnic conflict amongst different tribes that have been traditionally hostile to each other. There is persistent demand for Greater Nagaland and Greater Mizoram by assimilating the areas of Manipur. With a strong political-militant nexus, it is in a state of near anarchy. Only bold politico-economic initiatives and good governance can bail out the state.

Tripura and Mizoram are beset by a low level insurgency over perceived threat to their distinctive culture and socio-economic deprivation. In Meghalaya too, some of the Khasis are protesting against large scale Bangladeshi migration into the state. These three states are astride major infiltration routes for insurgents transiting to and from Bangladesh. Arunachal is largely peaceful but care has to be taken that the state does not go the Nepal Maoist way.

North Bengal is facing numerous problems. The feeling of neglect amongst Bodo tribals has led to nascent insurgency. Gurkhas in Darjeeling and areas of Jalpaiguri are discontent. When viewed in conjunction with the Maoist factor and sensitivity of the Siliguri Corridor, the situation merits serious concern. Given the rise in Islamic fundamentalism in NER and North Bengal, urgent steps are needed to reduce the alienation through re education and development.

Integrated Development and Inclusive Growth

NER began figuring prominently in the planning literature from the early 1970s, particularly post-reorganisation of the states in the region. The Central Government has been trying to integrate NER into the national economy through a policy framework guided by a combination of politics, economy and culture.

In the ambit of above policy framework, numerous schemes have been formulated for the development of NE states. Under the provision of Special Category States, seven of these states get central assistance on the basis of 90 percent grant and 10 percent loan. Under the Sixth Schedule of Constitution, the concept of Autonomous Hill Council has been instituted. Despite such measures, the region has not been able to develop at par with rest of the country. While the NER is resource rich, the prevailing development model failed to resolve crucial issues like poverty, inadequacy of infrastructure and investment of private capital.

For the first time the government came out with a comprehensive road map for NE states in the form of NER Vision 2020. It marks a significant shift from the earlier approach by laying emphasis on the ability of the corporate bodies to deliver development in the region. There is apprehension amongst the critics that the 'Highway Economy' model would result in extraction of resources from the region under the pretext of progress. In the 'top down' approach, Government is seen as 'development giver' and the people the 'development taker'. There is also debate about 'alternative development' versus 'alternative to development'.

The solution is in conceptualising a new paradigm of progress, where emphasis would be on creating a product base in the region, instead of just being a supplier of primary products like oil, timber and tea. Even when private capital is involved, it should ensure inclusive growth, where local communities and village level organisations are empowered to participate in the developmental process.

With change in the erstwhile national defence policy which did not permit development of border areas, it is pertinent now to dovetail the security requirements in the overall development of the region. There is an inescapable need to create infrastructure for optimal application of combat potential in the given time frame. The Brahmaputra is a major obstacle impeding the employment of war waging machinery in the east. This can be overcome by improving the north-south road and rail connectivity over it. Similarly the network of airfields must cater for the defence requirement as well. Because of the sensitivity of the Silguri Corridor, the development must seek to make NER a self-sustaining logistics hub. Location of new cantonments and installations in the region would substantially contribute to development. The Ministry of Defence should be closely associated with the development of NER to ensure synergy between various agencies, the strategic and operational level. the large ex-servicemen community can make valuable contribution in the development process of the remote areas.

Recommendations

Some key recommendations which merit serious consideration are summarized below:

n The overall development strategy needs to be holistic, taking into consideration both regional and international environments. The approach has to be two pronged -- creation of critical infrastructure and generation of employment opportunities. The policy of the Central Government needs to change from "planning for NE" to "planning with NE". In view of the fragile ecological footprint of the region, fine balance must be maintained between development and needs of the locals.

n With overall improvement in the security situation, there should be greater involvement of the para military forces, with the Army in a supporting role. Existing legal provisions like 'inner line' permit and AFSPA 1958, also merit a review. De novo approach should seek long term political solutions. Counter-insurgency and development programs should be in tandem and not sequential. Effective resources, better border management coupled with astute foreign policy initiatives will go a long way in eliminating insurgency.

n To change the existing politically driven distribution process leading to government monopoly, the need is to switch to regional market driven economic model. The state apparatus ought to be trimmed down to affect savings for development. The NER must be made an attractive destination for private investment. Emphasis must be laid to substantially step up productivity of food grains. Agriculture/ horticulture related activities could act as engine of growth. To this end, post-harvest management and marketing infrastructure needs to be created.

n Dovetailing defence requirement with the developmental architecture of remote areas would ensure judicious utilisation of resources. MoD has an important role in this regards. A vision document in the long term perspective must be formulated which integrates security aspects into the capacity building of the region. A Systematic approach to the infrastructural development in the region, which includes surface transportation, freight corridors, inland water transportation, airports, SEZs and power projects, are most critical.

n Development of the human resource needs to be taken up on the highest priority. Holistic approach to improve the quality of education and vocational training facilities will generate huge employment opportunities and wean away the youth from militancy.

n By fostering active regional cooperation with immediate and extended neighborhood, the NE states could act as bridge between mainland India and east Asia. This will facilitate significant economic development of the region.

NER, once a forgotten frontier, today stands at the cross roads of past neglect and a great future. The region has tremendous capacity to serve national strategic interests. It is only through holistic approach and integrated growth model that the NER can keep India's date with destiny.

The writer is former Assistant Chief Integrated Defence Staff and has commanded a Division in the north-east