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Reforms put on hold?
Man it right |
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Putin as President again But it’s a questionable victory Vladimir Putin’s victory with a big margin in the Russian presidential election underlines the extent of popularity he enjoys in his country. Over 63 per cent votes went in his favour against 17 per cent polled by his nearest rival, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.
Dynasty politics in India
Voila Spring!
THE TRIBUNE DEBATE: NCTC
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Reforms put on hold?
After the Congress collapse in Uttar Pradesh became clear, the stock markets fell sharply intra-day on March 6. Post-exit polls, it was believed that the Samajwadi Party (SP) would form a government in UP with Congress help. The SP was seen as a replacement for the Trinamool Congress, which has consistently opposed economic reforms. But the absolute majority for the SP upset these expectations. Now the feeling is initiatives like foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail, the Lokpal Bill, the Land Acquisition Bill and pension and insurance reforms will not get through, thanks to Mamata Banerjee. Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi of the Trinamool Congress created a flutter by hinting at mid-term elections, a statement he retracted later. With the Congress on the defensive, support of the allies uncertain, opposition parties stalling parliamentary proceedings and chief ministers in non-Congress-ruled states becoming aggressive about their space in the polity, it is unlikely that a consensus would emerge on reforms like diesel decontrol, the Indirect Taxes Code and the goods and services tax. The first test of the UPA government’s intention to carry forward unpleasant but desirable steps would be on a hike in oil prices. Despite decontrol, petrol prices have not been raised due to the assembly elections despite a substantial rise in global crude rates. The escalating subsidy on diesel, cooking gas and kerosene is weighing heavily on the Central finances. The view that dominant sections within the Congress itself are not very enthusiastic about reforms is gaining ground. The UPA government’s indifference to reforms is evident from the dithering on forest and environmental clearances. Land acquisitions and construction of highways have slowed down, if not come to a halt. The blanket ban on mining has held up projects. The corporate world fears the UPA would turn more populist, diverting resources from urgent tasks like building infrastructure to welfare schemes with an eye on the general election in 2014. How serious the UPA is about reforms will be partly clear from the budget it presents on March 16.
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Man it right
Securing nine seats more than the 59 required to form the government, the SAD-BJP alliance in Punjab has consolidated its position over the last tenure in political terms. This should be reason enough for the Chief Minister to go about forming a merit-driven Cabinet rather than making it a please-all exercise. It all begins with the choice of ministers. While seniority is a major factor, competence is no less, as that is what is going to determine performance and, therefore, popularity among people. Choose ministers for knowledge relevant to the portfolio to be assigned. And thereafter, give them the independence required to get things done. This was not the case during the last term of the government, when the ministers had little say in most projects of any significance. No Chief Minister or Deputy Chief Minister can do justice to the job if he has to single-handed supervise all ministries. Public mandate has agreed with the SAD’s claim of development. But one thing no one can deny is the “red beacon” culture (the overall SAD-BJP vote share has gone down since 2007). Towards correcting that, a good idea is to have as few people as possible who are eligible to throw their weight around. Parliamentary secretaries are one such category. Technically, they are supposed to have no powers in the ministry, and are there only to assist the minister in the House. There is no need to have them, given their maintenance cost and the state’s precarious financial condition. As pointed out already, there is no need to “please” anyone. A large unwieldy establishment — where you have people with status but no responsibility — is a sure way to reduced accountability and increased chances of corruption. SAD president Sukhbir Singh Badal has declared the party will rule for at least 25 years. If it is on the basis of development that he gets people’s mandate every time, there should be no objection. Just add humility to the agenda, and see how the magic works. |
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Putin as President again
Vladimir Putin’s victory with a big margin in the Russian presidential election underlines the extent of popularity he enjoys in his country. Over 63 per cent votes went in his favour against 17 per cent polled by his nearest rival, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov. A third challenger, Mikhail Prokhorov, secured nearly 8 per cent votes with great difficulty. So, Putin, who has already served Russia as President for two four-year terms from 2000 to 2008, will be occupying the top position again and for six years, the new term fixed by outgoing President Dmitry Medvedev. And Putin will be eligible to get re-elected for another six-year term, which means he will have made history by being the longest serving head of state of Russia after Joseph Stalin. But will it be in the interest of Russia as a democracy? With Dmitry Medvedev as the new Prime Minister, Putin is being seen as the new strongman Russia may have. His style of functioning may add to Russia’s standing at the global level, but Russian democracy is likely to suffer considerably. Why should he bother about the opposition’s viewpoint on any issue when he knows that his position as the chief executive of Russia remains secure for a long time. If things remain as they are in Russia, he can engineer his victory in 2018 too. Even this time Putin is accused of having used both fair and foul means to recapture power in Russia. Independent election observers have expressed the view that Putin misused official machinery to manipulate the poll outcome in his favour. One monitoring agency has stated that “there was no real competition, and the abuse of government resources ensured that the ultimate winner of the election was never in doubt.” The large-scale protests throughout Russia against Putin’s questionable victory may expose him as a power-hungry leader. If the protests
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A budget tells us what we can't afford, but it doesn't keep us from buying it.
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Dynasty politics in India
While the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) are the clear winners in the string of state assembly elections, and the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, to a more limited extent, are the losers, do the results of what was universally recognised as a dress rehearsal for the 2014 general election represent a trend? Dynasty politics is no longer an issue because all political parties, to a greater or lesser extent, have succumbed to the temptation of advancing their leaders’ progeny. In the case of Mr Rahul Gandhi’s less than stellar performance in Uttar Pradesh, interest centres on how far it has dented the prospects of his main assumed calling, the Prime Minister’s chair. But the unmistakable trend is towards a redefinition of federalism in favour of regional, as opposed to national, parties. Apart from Goa and Manipur where each of the two national parties won decisively because of local, rather than national circumstances, regional parties held sway. In UP, the real contest was between the SP, spruced up as a modern outfit under the charge of the leader’s son Akhilesh Yadav, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) under the somewhat wilted leadership of Mayawati. While the former sought to tune in to the dreams of the young, the latter was unable to repeat the winning formula of knitting a compact of the Dalits with the vital “others” and lost out to the perception of an amazing level of corrupt rule. Corruption became a factor in these elections because of the wide airing given to the Anna Hazare movement, but the level of corruption and local circumstances counted as well. In UP, the serial sacking of allegedly corrupt ministers before the election and large-scale corruption in the mining sector in the Congress-ruled Goa were demonstrable factors in the public sense of outrage. In other cases, candidates with unsavoury reputations sailed through. India has been evolving towards a redefinition of federalism for some time, as has been evident in the greater clout of chief ministers belonging to the regional parties and in the BJP. A weakness of Congress chief ministers since the days of Indira Gandhi is the refusal of the central leadership to let state leaders grow. The BJP has been more tolerant in this regard, as is evident in the stature of chief ministers in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The flip side is that In Gujarat’s case, Mr Narendra Modi is setting his own terms for his party’s national leaders. Even in the case of the Congress’ regional allies, particularly in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress is giving the central Congress leadership a hard time by insisting on its own policies. But it is in the interest of leaders of regional parties to flaunt their independence and insist on the Centre observing the letter of the Constitution in proposing new legislation impinging on states’ rights. Psychologically, it is difficult for the Congress party to adjust to states’ caveats because it was used to setting states’ policies in New Delhi for decades since they were ruled by it as well. Regional parties on their part have been testing the waters over recent decades by trying to pool their power for greater national clout. But their efforts have yielded patchy results because of the problem of outsized egos and the parties’ varying interests. The poor performance of the Congress in these elections has again led to speculation over a regional non-Congress endeavour to form a new front. How successful it will be remains to be seen, but the growing power of regional parties and leaders is not in doubt and will impact on the fortunes of the Congress. On the question of dynasty politics, no one in India questions its legitimacy any longer because almost all parties are complicit in it. Rather, the debate has now veered round to the future of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty after the indifferent performance of Rahul Gandhi. Is the magic of India’s first family over? From Jawaharlal Nehru to Indira Gandhi and then Rajiv Gandhi and, in a sense Sonia Gandhi, and now Rahul, the universal assumption has been that the aura of the prime dynasty remains undiminished. It is taken for granted that Rahul will be fielded as the Congress party’s next prime ministerial candidate. Judging by the eagerness with which Congress functionaries have been taking the blame for Rahul’s performance, sycophancy in the party’s ranks remains robust, but the larger question the assembly results throw up remains: has the Nehru-Gandhi magic waned? Uttar Pradesh occupies a special place in the Nehru-Gandhi lore because it is the Nehrus’ traditional home base and there has been an emotional attachment to the family. Other factors have come into play in UP as in other Hindi-speaking states in particular. Caste identity politics became a major factor, and although the Congress joined in while holding its nose, other parties flaunted it openly even outside the Dalit movement exploited by Ms Mayawati to the hilt. Earlier, the BJP helped polarise the Hindu-Muslim divide by its Parivar destroying the Babri Masjid and rousing religious frenzy on the issue of building the Ram temple in Ayodhya. While Rahul Gandhi’s real test will come in 2014, the growth and influence of regional parties imply a diminishing of the appeal of India’s first family. There is pride in regional identity, particularly in the language, converted into something of a cult symbol by Mr Modi in Gujarat, which might come to haunt him in fulfilling his national ambition. Besides, given the growing clout of chief ministers, lionising national leaders would seem to be a less appealing proposition to many of them. Regional pride is not necessarily a bad thing as long as it is kept within bounds in the context of the national good. A narrow interpretation of regionalism could come in the way of expanding states’ influence. By the same token, emphasising the majority community’s rights and privileges carries a tinge of anti-minority connotation, as the BJP has often discovered to its
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Voila Spring!
A dainty little bird flies in and begins to sing its soulful song and suddenly spring is upon us. The air is crisp and energizing. The grass is a sheet of emerald and the flowers dazzle with their delightful hues. I smile on recollecting memories of springs past and my mind turns on an old song: There are places I remember All my life though some have changed Some forever, not for better Some have gone and some remain All these places have their moments … I still can recall… In my life I've loved them all My most riveting memory of spring is of walking among the Amaltaas and Gulmohar trees in Patiala. The yellow gold of the Amaltaas florets and the orange flames of the Gulmohar petals would at once soothe and awaken and then as the lively spring breeze would rise and ebb in waves, the gold and the orange would descend down on me and the trail thereby forever making the memory of the scene ethereal. Another almost illusive memory is of the peacocks that came to dance in the spring in the backyard of my father’s official house in Patiala. The glorious birds would be there one minute, doing their splendid dance and just as I would begin to soak up that regal mystique, they would turn around and be gone. Many of my newer memories of spring are set in the US. The most vivid ones are of walking along the Pacific coast and watching the Torrey Pines burst into a deep crimson bloom and of the rosemary shrubs in my backyard suddenly gushing into the most fragrant violet blossom. Every spring, I also welcome the vivacious rabbits, who come to play in my backyard all day long until the copper sunset sends them back into their holes. And just when I have almost forgotten about the kangaroo paw plants in my front yard, in late spring, they dash forth in glittering saffron and then as if to overcome their late bloomer status, they begin to attract exquisite hummingbirds. The little birds do a standstill in the air to suck nectar off the plants and always before I can reach for the camera, they are gone. The sights and colours of spring herald the summer. While in India, spring stirs up the imagination in anticipation of mangoes, jamuns and, of course, the monsoon, in the US, I foresee cherries, strawberries and busy beaches adorned by graceful swimmers and beautiful surfers who do magnificent dances across the ocean floor, forever seeking to catch and ride those magical waves. Most of all, spring brings with it an unbeaten optimism. It is like being seventeen all over again and I begin to dream great, big dreams and turn around with zest and say, “Yes, I can.” And then I go for a run along the golden “coast of dreams” and chase after one of my
own!
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It would be suicidal if counter terrorism bodies became victims of coalition politics. The States and the Centre need to work in concert so that a smart system can always stay a few steps ahead of terror networks Shyamal Datta
IT was in the Intelligence Bureau Centenary Endowment Lecture on December 23,2009 ,that the Union Home Minister P.Chidambaram presented a broad outline of the proposal to set up the NCTC for a well structured response to different hues of terrorism. The backdrop was 26/11. The Home Minister was of the firm view that mere collection. collation and coordination of intelligence, as being done under the existing Multi Agency Centre(MAC) since December,2001, were not enough. It was, therefore, necessary that the proposed NCTC must also perform functions of investigation and operation to thwart challenges of terror. It is indeed creditable that from the drawing board to this stage, it has taken only 25 months for the NCTC to see the light of the day. The architectural designs of the NCTC envisage that the MAC will be subsumed in the NCTC. Later, the Govt. of India will have to take calls on the status and location of other central agencies like the NIA, NTRO, NCRB, JIC and the NSG, associated with investigation, collection of technical input ,processing of data, intelligence assessment, and crisis management. The rules of prudence would demand that these organisations should form part of the arc of the NCTC for best of coordination and professional response. Once the CCTNS (Crime and Criminal Tracking Network System) and the NATGRID, designed to overcome problems of connectivity, networking and sharing and accessing of data bases up to the Police Station level, get into full steam, these should also be made part of the NCTC to complete its operational arc.
GLOBAL TERROR The holistic approach reflected in the Endowment Lecture of the Union Home Minister (Dec 23,2009) , is a well thought out and futuristic plan of action to deal with security challenges that have not only multiplied but also remained diverse, disperse, diabolic and asymmetric in nature, besides being globalised in character and devastating in consequences. Terror has since moved from the national to international level, and players turned from the state to non- state actors, and hostile individuals and societies. The raging anger of sections of people against poverty, inequity, unemployment, ethnic differences etc., have continued to fuel the militant left wing extremist movement and insurgencies, using terror as an instrument to challenge and confront the state. Further, the growing nexus of the militant groups with organised crime and drug trafficking has added sinister dimensions. The NCTC is meant to address all these and ,thus, help overcome a major deficiency of the absence of a well structured Internal Security (IS) hub at the national level, in our security system. The shortcoming appears really glaring when it is seen that the security agencies in the developed world have already moved from a position of independent and unilateral action to a relationship, based on sharing and inter-dependence of resources of each other. The new culture of inter-dependence has brought about a paradigm shift in their security policy with a focus on doctrinaire approach.
NEED FOR A SMART SYSTEM The approach is formulated on the basis of an in depth and objective assessment of threats and challenges to determine thresholds of tolerance to different kinds and levels of threats and dangers. The instruments of the state and centre are regularly revamped and strengthened with back -up support of sharing and coordination, effective legal regime and resolve to stay the course in order to make the Internal Security response strong and effective. The Internal Security apparatus is by nature, aggressive and active intelligence gathering with an elaborate architecture on the ground, to respond to threats which are unexpected, uncertain, unpredictable and unprecedented. An integral component of the apparatus is counter terror doctrine to provide a grand mix of defensive, offensive, overt and covert measures with a pro -active role to go after the source of threat and impose deterrent costs. A smart IS system will always try to remain a few steps ahead of its adversaries, with the capacity to detect, deter and disrupt the terror network, its logistic support and operational capabilities. The IS will be required to be pro -active and systemic, besides being driven by skills of anticipation, intuition and creativity. A well calibrated response will be a function of four basic elements of intelligence and warning, prevention and deterrence, crisis and consequence management and coordinated acquisition and application of equipment and technology, besides implementation of the steps and measures taken on a continuing basis, to improve the system, and partnerships at different levels to mine and harness the expertise and technological skills available outside the purview of the Government. Based on these imperatives, the Govt. of India has taken a path breaking decision of setting up the NCTC. Very rightly, Chidambaram opined in the Endowment Lecture that Internal Security must become the focal point of attention in the MHA, and engage the quality time and energy of the Home Minister. It is high time that the Govt. considers very seriously the formation of the Internal Security Division under the MHA, manned and run by professionals from different disciplines.
EFFICIENT POLICING Side by side with this, the Govt. has to address the growing malaise of the mal -functioning of the law enforcement agencies in the states. Very aptly, the Home Minister observed in the Centenary Lecture that the efficacy of the NCTC would substantially depend on how efficient and effective was the civil policing and its partnerships with different walks of life in society. Law enforcement is the bulwark against crime, violence and law and order. By nature, it is reactive, episodic and ad- hoc in response. It is governed by rules of evidence to protect the rights of people and uphold the rule of law. It is trained to acquire skills of sophistication and nuance to deal with problems of heart and mind. A constable in the Beat constitutes the front- end to forge partnership with the back-end, comprising all those who are security stakeholders in society. The sound and fury stirred by the Chief Ministers over the formation of the NCTC, has offered an opportunity to highlight to them that the civil policing in the country has suffered the most for a long period on account of a variety of reasons. And security architecture envisaged under the NCTC, is not going to be any substitute for an effective networking of Beat constable and the likes. It is time that the political heads of the states do all that is necessary to make the law enforcement agencies efficient and smart. It is also time that the Chief Ministers stop pussy footing the implementation of a series of recommendations made by the National Police Commission and committees in past decades for Police reforms. The responsibility of securing society and the state/nation is a joint endeavour, and, therefore, both the law enforcement and the IS agencies have to supplement each other, revolutionising their respective methodologies and operational techniques. In its absence the NCTC would be greatly handicapped and hamstrung.\
RESERVATIONS UNFOUNDED The reservations that some of the Chief Ministers have expressed, are essentially with regard to the legal powers vested in the NCTC under the UPA Act,1967. Incidentally, amendments brought twice in the Act in 2004 and later, in 2008 to introduce the concept of "Designated Authority" (Director NCTC) and provisions of legal powers of the Authority, were passed by Parliament without any demur. And now when the Home Minister has clarified that these powers would be restricted to the members of the Operational wing of the NCTC only, and that it would be incumbent on them to forward persons arrested and seizures made to the nearest Police Station without any unnecessary delay for taking appropriate actions under provisions of law , fears of Chief Ministers do not appear to be substantive. Some retired members of the Intelligence fraternity have also given vent to their concern at the possibility of the IB being dragged to the court of law because of the legal powers conferred. Presently, the IB conducts operations as and when required, with a professional elan, taking the concerned local police into confidence for having not only a legal cover, but also to take advantage of their ground level expertise and other valuable inputs. The preparations for operations require special inquiries, surveillance, and several other follow up actions to achieve success. The joint endeavour has been rewarding. In this backdrop, the powers of arrest and search are expected to provide considerable autonomy of action and be of immense help when intelligence input is of very emergent and grave nature and action cannot be delayed in coordinating with the local police. The use of legal powers will, however, underscore the need for greater care, caution, circumspection and discretion on the part of the NCTC as a safeguard against acts of omission and commission and hazards of the profession. The composition of the NCTC with representatives of state and others should also help impart a greater sense of awareness, understanding and accountability. In addition, the provision for a Standing Council is meant to ensure that the NCTC remains the single effective point of control and coordination of counter terror measures, without impairing in any manner the legal or federal framework as also the initiative and autonomy of the state to act on its own. The Council, besides meeting regularly, is proposed to be linked with video conferencing facilities to facilitate interventions and exchanges as and when necessary.
Parliamentary oversight In such a working mechanism ,involving professionals of the states and others, fears that the NCTC might undermine the federal structure by taking actions prejudicial to the interest of the state and the party in power, appear to be rather misplaced. On the contrary, the mechanism is likely to generate considerable optimism about improvement in the capabilities of the instruments of state, environment of security and development of the state economy from structured professional relations between states and centre under the banner of the NCTC. This might help bridge the hiatus between the two in some cases, and hopefully, engender national consensus and bipartisanship on issues relating to IS. So far as the location of the NCTC in the IB is concerned, the Govt. has taken care to discuss at length the various options available after the IB has been identified as the nodal agency of counter intelligence and counter terrorism in the Kargil Committee Report,2001. Suffice it to say, that the deliberations at three different stages of the Kargil Committee, GOM and the CCS involved an in depth examination and scrutiny of various aspects and implications of the placement of the body in the hands of those best trained and equipped, and in the end, agreed to go ahead with the announcement of vesting the responsibilities of the IS with the MHA, and location of the NCTC in the IB . Since the NCTC will be under the Ministerial control of the MHA, it will be accountable to Parliament. In addition, if any Parliamentary oversight is required, I am sure, the Intelligence Agencies will not be averse to such idea. The meeting called by the Home Secretary with the state Chief Secretaries and the DGs of Police on March 12, will in all probability, find a way forward to fixing a meeting with the state Chief Ministers for resolution of the controversy and obtaining the stamp of imprimatur. Since the Home Minister is a party in the bone of contention, it will be desirable that the Prime Minister considers taking the CMs on board ,giving assurance that apprehensions about usurping of state powers by the NCTC, are most unfounded. After all, the architect of the all important decision is none other than the CCS, the highest security body at the national level. The nation has already suffered for loss of time in the final unfolding of the IS Architecture under the NCTC. It is most imperative that the state Chief Ministers care to look at the larger picture, and see the wisdom of not putting hurdles on the way of its formation. The nascent body would require quality investment of precious time, energy ,resources and skills at different levels over a period of time, to make the NCTC a real harbinger of security and stability. It will be suicidal if it becomes a victim of coalition politics.
The writer is former Director, Intelligence Bureau and Governor of Nagaland
Major central agencies NIA: National Investigation Agency NTRO: National Technical Research Organisation NCRB: National Crime Records Bureau JIC: Joint Intelligence Committee NSG: National Security Guard CCTNS: Crime and Criminal Tracking Network and System NATGRID: National Intelligence Grid
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THE TRIBUNE DEBATE: NCTC