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Politics in Punjab
Cong challenge in UP |
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Ticket to better life
Signals from Kudankulam
Mr Pesky’s elegy on SMS!
The country does not appear alarmed or worried at the growth of population. Political parties and the media seem
oblivious to the threat and the government appears reluctant to take tough measures. But if dehumanising poverty is
to be eliminated, ways must be found to slow down the growth of population.
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Politics in Punjab
The run-up to the Assembly elections in Punjab has already been vitiated by a royal slanging match. Mudslinging, personal and wild allegations and worse have been the order of the day. The last few elections in the state were also marred by character assassination and liberal use of unparliamentary language. Political parties had then engaged in vicious advertisement campaigns in the media. This time too, indications are that politicians across the political divide have thrown caution to the winds while attacking each other. Several leaders of the two major parties, the Shiromani Akali Dal and the Congress, must equally share the blame. While electoral rivals are known to accuse each other of incompetence and irresponsibility, political leaders in Punjab have been merrily calling each other names. Public speeches have touched a new low as speakers describe rivals as alcoholics, mentally deranged, cheats, thieves, traitors and worse. A more assertive Election Commission, which had in the past failed to curb the electoral discourse from sliding into the gutter, is, however, expected to rein in the parties and politicians this time. The EC will, of course, be expected to control, if not completely curb, the use of both money and muscle power. But a fair election can scarcely be conducted with unfair and vicious campaigns by political parties. That is why the Commission needs to monitor the campaigns and ensure that personal, sweeping and unsubstantiated allegations are not made. The unhealthy discourse, while indicating political bankruptcy, also reflects the failure of political parties and politicians to change with the times. Even as the voters are getting younger and better educated, and even as technology is shrinking distances and making the voters more aware, political parties seem unable to change and re-invent themselves. They are required to look for newer, more substantial and more innovative campaigns than rely upon their lung-power and hits below the belt. The Assembly election in Punjab, as indeed in several other states, scheduled for early next year, will be a litmus test for not just the Election Commission but also for the political parties. It will also be an opportunity for them to re-define the political discourse and address more serious issues than their rivals’ personal predilections. |
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Cong challenge in UP
Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi, who has been working hard for the past few years to revive the Congress in UP, has thrown down the gauntlet for the 2012 Assembly elections. What is being described as an “insulting” comment that he made in Phulpur, near Allahabad, tells the truth also. When there are fewer job opportunities in the most populous state of the country, what is wrong in asking, “How long will you beg in Maharashtra; how long will you do hard labour in Punjab — your governments have cheated you the most in 20 years?” He made another truthful observation: UP has not had a government of “aam aadmi” for a long time; it has been ruled by parties identified with particular castes or caste combinations. In such a situation, economic growth could not be the top priority of the governments concerned. The caste-based parties that came to power were mainly bothered about keeping the supporting castes in good humour. But such factors cannot help forever as it happened in the case of the BJP, which came to be known as the “mandir-wali party” and lost much of its following. The efforts by the Congress under the leadership of the young Gandhi have paid dividends. The Congress, which got 25 seats with an 8.61 per cent vote share in the 2007 Assembly elections, improved its position substantially in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. It won 22 Lok Sabha seats and 18.25 per cent of the votes polled. The Congress rise led to a fall in the number of seats that went to the Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav and the BJP. The ruling BSP of Ms Mayawati has retained its position as the top scorer, but it is scared of the revival of the Congress as a major player in UP. It is not without reason that Ms Mayawati has been criticising the Congress more than any other party in her speeches for some time. If the Congress continues to gain the way it has been doing since 2007, this can erode her party’s following considerably. After all, the Muslims, the Scheduled Castes and the Backward Classes, who form the support bases of the BSP and the SP, once constituted the vote banks of the Congress. But if the Congress fails to show better results, it may shatter the dreams of party managers. |
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Ticket to better life
Education is the only tool left to the masses from the economically weaker sections who still like to dream big. Ask anyone in the small towns of Bihar, from where came Sushil Kumar, the KBC jackpot winner, who turned the stuff of dreams into a reality, riding the sole power of his GK (general knowledge), and you will know the relevance of education. He won Rs 5 crore and millions like him aspiring to shift gears in the class hierarchy got to realise the significance of the RTE (Right to Education), for which Shiksha Ka Haq Abhiyan — a year long campaign — was launched by the Prime Minister last week. In the RTE, the country has got an opportunity to change the entire structure of elementary education, which, despite its tall claims of universalisation, has failed to deliver on the basics. In the clichéd number game — with an impressive number of 13 lakh elementary schools across the country — what is still missing is the fundamentals that make for a sound education system. Despite the reduced school dropout rates — shown at least on paper — the skill acquisition still remains low and often irrelevant for the recipient. According to the Annual Status of Education Report, only half of the country’s 5th standard children can read a standard 2 textbook, and even fewer can do basic arithmetic. Added to this is abysmal infrastructure, uninspiring pedagogy and total disconnect between the planner of our education system and its recipients, which leads to the perennial problem that causes the failure of good educational schemes — parental apathy. The nationwide campaign for the RTE should also initiate an attempt to tailor education according to the specific needs of the students, instead of forcing them to adapt to a system manufactured and administered by the bureaucrats to suit all classes and regions. Shiksha Ka Haq is said to be the biggest social campaign ever undertaken in the history of India. Its political significance can be gauged by the fact that apart from a letter from the Prime Minister (translated into 14 languages), that was to be read out on the occasion of Education Day, several non-Congress states also had messages by their own Chief Ministers read out along with the PM’s letter. |
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Peace is the skilful management of conflict. — Kenneth Boulding |
Signals from Kudankulam
Kudankulam seems to be rocking India’s ambitious nuclear power programme. A crisis-like atmosphere prevails due to the stoppage of pre-commissioning fuel loading in Kudankulam’s 1000 MW capacity first reactor. Why? Because of the post-Fukushima apprehensions, no doubt, but equally because of lack of adequate comprehension of the nuclear issue, further complicated by domestic politics. The need is to disentangle the issues involved and enhance public awareness. But first the facts. There is very little commonality between the Fukushima reactors and the Kudankulam power project. Whereas the Kudankulam nuclear power units belong to the third generation of reactor design evolution, the Fukushima reactors belong to the first generation. This specially applies to safety parameters. Kudankulam reactor components are housed in a 1.2 meter thick pre-stressed concrete containment lined inside with thick steel plates. The containment is hermetically sealed and tested so as to remain leak-proof even in an environment created during a hypothetical accident. The safety factor in Kudankulam reactor design is many stages superior to the first generation reactors. There are multiple barriers for the release of radioactivity to the environment — fuel matrix, fuel cladding, the piping system, besides the hermetically sealed containment building. The aim is to separate the reactor from the environment, and the environment from the reactor. Secondly, it is dangerous to mix up geographical locations. Japan stands on the tip of the so-called “Pacific Ring of Fire” — some 1500 earthquakes are recorded there annually. The March 11 earthquake of magnitude 9 was the biggest ever in Japan, with the epicentre some 130 km. from the coast. The resulting tsunami was more than 7 meters high. As against this, India is relatively stable with seismic activity confined to the Himalayan regions. The southern plateau is relatively more stable. It would be dangerous to link up geological events from one region to another. It has also to be remembered that the first two Fukushima reactors hit by the accident had outlived their 40-year life-span — extended without technological upgrading — because of the greed of the Japanese industrial magnates owning the reactors. Even these aged reactors were giving handsome profits. The only striking commonality between the Kudankulam and Fukushima reactors — and those at Kalpakkam and Tarapur in India — is a sea coast location. For decades, all these sea-coast reactors have been operating without any risk or damage to the coastal marine life. And this serves as conclusive evidence that the apprehensions being roused by vested interests among the Kudankulam fishermen are baseless. Even so, the Fukushima accident came as a shock in India and the lessons were carefully analyzed, followed by prompt counter-veiling measures — first and foremost, for the Kudankulam project. Specifically, for the purpose of cooling nuclear fuel when the reactor is shut down, there are now four independent systems installed in operational and upcoming projects, each with its own 8 MW diesel generator, so that if the first or second systems malfunction, there are two more as a back-up arrangement. Added on, for the first time at Kudankulam reactors, a passive heat removal system has been installed. The system ensures cooling of the nuclear reactor core in a passive manner — that is without any pumps, valves, etc., requiring power supply. There is more. A further feature added to the Kudankulam design is called the “core catcher”. In the event of an accident, where the molten nuclear fuel were to breach the reactor pressure vessel, it falls on to a matrix containing a large amount of neutron-absorbing substances (such as boron). On mixing with this material, the nuclear fuel is rendered incapable of starting a nuclear chain reaction. Only the latest design provides for this safety back-up. The post-Fukushima jolt to India’s nuclear programme appears to be far more severe than it seemed six months ago after the earthquake and tsunami devastation in Japan. In fact, post-Fukushima apprehensions had a world-wide impact on the nuclear industry in countries such as France, the United States, China and Russia, where nuclear energy plays a significant role in electricity generation. As in India’s case, all these countries have, after evaluating the lessons of Fukushima and inducting appropriate safety features in their existing and ongoing nuclear projects, continued with their nuclear expansion and maintenance plans. The United States has, after a decade’s gap, launched the construction of two fresh Westinghouse 1200 MW power reactors and budgeted for an expanding nuclear programme. China — has expanded its nuclear power construction, with the vision of making nuclear electricity generation the principal alternative to fossil fuel. The only country to tread a different path — for political, not scientific, reasons — is Germany. It could afford this because of European conditions. For, across the border, Slovakia, Russia the Czech Republic and even tiny Lithuania have launched the construction of nuclear power reactors for exporting electricity to Germany. Good, ready-made export business! But costlier power for Germans — drug manufacturer Bayers has protested. The Indian scenario is just the contrary, for electric energy is in acutly shortsupply and this shortage is growing. Nuclear energy alone can help, given fossil fuels’ fast depletion. The current developments may lead to a retrospective look at the nuclear programme. The ambitious Indian nuclear programme has, right from its inception, treaded a bumpy path. The scientific and technological challenges that the nuclear programme poses have been supplemented by a three-decade-long cordon sanitaire — a total sanctions and technology denial regime imposed by the Western powers led by the United States. Yet, overcoming the stifling sanctions in the wake of the Pokhran-I test, the Indian nuclear establishment performed the Herculean task of building a magnificent nuclear edifice: nuclear infrastructure industries, heavy water plants, research reactors, and a chain of R & D centres of which any country could be proud of. As many as 18 PHWRs (pressurised heavy water reactors) were built, generating 4580 Mwe electricity, with a safety record that is among the best. The Pokhran-II test series — one of the finest in the global chain of tests — showed the climax, a high water mark in nuclear weapon capability. Notwithstanding what domestic skeptics say, American and other international scientists have recognised India’s nuclear attainments. Said Siegfried S.Hecker, in his testimony at the US Senate Committee on Appropriations: “I found that whereas sanctions slowed (India’s) progress in nuclear energy, they made India self-sufficient and world leaders in fast reactor technology.” The US administration was compelled to lift the sanctions, and seek Indian cooperation in civilian nuclear projects and the global non-proliferation drive, accepting to India’s weapon status. The demise of the sanctions regime and the Indo-US civilian nuclear accord were a great victory for India and Indian scientists. A bright vista has opened for India’s nuclear programme, followed by a change in the scenario — rapid imports of uranium fuel to enable optimum capacity utilization of the existing PHWRs, and expanding PHWR projects. Global nuclear scientific interaction began. Nuclear energy targets were pushed upwards; the target for 2020 was raised from 20,000 Mwe to 30,000 Mwe, and the target for 2032 fixed by the Planning Commission was 63,000 Mwe. In this setting, Kudankulam — with its first reactor ready to generate 1000 MW electricity — poses a severe challenge to the entire nuclear programme: it may increase power generation shortage and render a big blow to the entire Indian economy. Hopefully, the impasse will be resolved. The nuclear establishment, on its part, has to learn a few lessons on the need to step up nuclear awareness among the populace in a big
way. The writer has done a well-received book on India’s nuclear programme. |
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Mr Pesky’s elegy on SMS!
If you have tears, prepare to shed them now!” Thus spake Mr Pesky, mourning the death of the ubiquitous SMS. “Now he lies here...dead and gone! When comes such another! O Service Providers, if I were disposed to stir your hearts and minds to mutiny and rage, I should do TRAI wrong, and DoT wrong!” Lamented Mr Pesky and continued grieving. “Of the slain SMS, they call him names in frilled alliteration, woven in expressions like pestering, pestiferous, plaguey, and, to suit their taste, more offending ones like teasing, annoying, bothersome, galling, irritating, nettlesome and what not!” “History should repent also for its undoing. What people think comes gratis, or as a freebie, has its own value too. The innocuous SMS may be dispensable for some, but for others it may have been the mainstay. The announcement that you will not be having these SMSes by simply texting a DND — Do not disturb — may be some friends’ loss too, who would recall later with nostalgic pinch felt within — O’ for a pesky one!” “My uncle Frisky once told me that in Chandni Chowk, when they introduced telephone connections for the first time, it came with buy-one-get-one-free offer. Look at them now. The same people orchestrated the killing of a ‘service’ that charged almost nothing from anyone. O’ temopra! O’ mores!” “So what if we have over 130 million mobile subscribers carped with the National Do Not Call Registry till as late as August 25, there are others (670-million strong!) who may be retired persons, or not too engaged in their daily chores, or the indulgent ones who look up to the dreamy world of real estate, banks, multinational companies, business houses, new launches, etc, to pass their time in a fruitful activity.” “What was the harm in being updated in the chosen field, even if it was from soccer or cricket? Do you not stop the Shatabdi Express by pulling the chain to know the score if it’s not available by other means? SMSs had a cure for this. “What was the harm if someone called you up to assist you in getting faster, and easy (in instalments) loan? What was the harm if looking for a flat, some brokers sent you information desired by you? What was the harm if Liliput or Koutons had announced a further reduction for you to visit their nearest showrooms? What was the harm if friendship and social networking people approached you for a handshake, if not more? All this baffles me a lot.” “The services being what they are at the governmental and bureaucratic levels, was it a sin if you received some really informative SMSes and acted accordingly. Think of the millions of the mobile users, who are suffering from ignorance about what is the latest? What is up market? What are the add-ons? What are the offers? I feel sad though I will have to not only lie, but also feel low!” “What a fall my countrymen? Does the highway rattling not disturb your sleep? Are you not shaken out of your slumber at the fast approaching and alarm-sounding trains with a high decible—Paaaaaaaaannnnnn! Do the Pujari ji, Bhai ji, Mulla ji not wake you up with their early morning clamours on public address systems? Do the Mata-Jagran activists let your kids prepare well for CET, CAT, MAT, etc? And now a soft buzz has let you all down! And you buried the poor SMS!” “O judgment! thou art fled to archived apparitions. And mobile users have lost their SMSes!” |
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The country does not appear alarmed or worried at the growth of population. Political parties and the media seem
oblivious to the threat and the government appears reluctant to take tough measures. But if dehumanising poverty is
to be eliminated, ways must be found to slow down the growth of population.
India’s population was approximately 43,54,68,85,104 and 122 crores respectively in the years 1961,1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2011. The net increase in population during the 2001-11 has been 181 million people against 182 million in the previous decade. In percentage terms, the increase in the two periods was 21 during 1991-2001 and 17.5 in the subsequent decade, prompting the Government to rejoice at the slowing down of population growth, without realising that what matters is the actual number and not the percentage. An increase of 181 million people per decade amounts to addition of one Brazil or one Australia every year. In contrast, the population increase in China for the 2001-11 decade has been 70 million only i.e. an increase of 5.43%. The traditional six Bimaru states i.e. UP, MP, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Rajasthan continue to add 45% of the population to the national pool with Bihar leading the rest with a decadal growth of 26%. Kerala beats all other states of India in terms of social and health indicators and has the least population growth during the decade i.e. 4.3% only. Why the other states fail to emulate the Kerala example is not easily understood. This population increase has occurred mostly in poor families. Left parties accuse capitalism for making the rich richer and the poor poorer. Both West Bengal and Kerala are the strong-holds of Left parties but the two states differ sharply in poverty levels and response to health and family planning policy initiatives. The National Population Policy of India aims to stabilise the population level at 145 crore by 2045. But it seems to be an impossible task because, judging by the most conservative extrapolation of current trends, Indian population will be 136 crore in 2021 and 147 crore in 2031. Increase in population by 18 million per year qualifies to be called a population explosion. The direct outcome of population explosion is poverty, hunger, squalor, unemployment, overcrowding, insanitation, social tension and terrorism threatening the very peace and security of the country. Presently the number of poor people falling below the poverty line (as submitted in the affidavit of the Planning Commission before the Supreme Court outlining an expenditure of Rs.32/- per person per day formula ) is 40.74 crore. There is almost an equal number of people called marginally poor, who are living just above the edge of the poverty line. The total number of marginally and intensely poor people can be safely assumed to be in the region of 70 crore. This is not a small number and is more than the combined population of the entire continent of Africa or 2.3 times the population of Europe. What will be the situation in 2021 or 2031 or 2041or 2051 is beyond the imagination of anybody. Poverty is a curse as it robs the honour, dignity and quality of life of the individual and the country as a whole.
A soft state Persistent poverty in India was attributed to 1400 long years of subjugation under the foreign rulers. Whom shall we blame now when the country is free for the last 64 years. Mrs. Indira Gandhi won the 1971 election with a thumping majority on the slogan of Garibi Hatao but no such dynamic program was launched to eradicate poverty after the election. In fact, India had to feed two crore refugees from Bangladesh for a long time. Finally Mr. Sanjay Gandhi realised the harsh and universal truth that economic development is self-defeating till we arrest population growth. He launched an intensive program of sterilisation of eligible couples (target 8.25 million operations). But the officials down the line conducted the program in a very crude form and the rest is history. Since then every Government (Centre and states) has been wary about taking a tough stand on population growth. Had successive governments taken a fresh initiative and limited population growth to 800 million by 2011, poverty would have been substantially reduced by now even with the existing level of infrastructure development. Yet, when the Census Commissioner of India released the shocking figures of population increase for the 2001-2011 decade, there was no commotion. The Government, the Planning Commission, leaders of Opposition parties, state CMs, Press, TV Channels, social activists – all were conspicuous by their silence, as if the problem belongs to a neighboring country. This dumbness shows insensitivity of the political class towards the most burning issue facing the country. The necessity to curb population explosion does not appear to agitate them and is certainly not on the agenda of political parties, although they rarely shy away from tall talks of poverty eradication or achievement of Millennium Development goals. The 8.5% growth story, or claims of the Indian economy becoming the second largest in the world pale in the face of tear jerking poverty , which affect around 14 crore families today. This is because poverty has grown in sync with the growth of population and the 8.5% growth story since 1998 (5.5% between 19991-98) has been able to contain only the percentage of the poor families and not the absolute numbers. The Planning Commission has not carried out a study to determine the stratification of poverty below the poverty line. This study, as and when it is done, will reveal more shocking results as a fair percentage of families have no possession except their bodies.
Eliminating hunger & poverty Some economists do maintain that India has sufficient land to grow enough food (220 mt) to feed the 1220 million people, provided the distribution is efficient (zero rotting of grains) and scam-free. But eradication of poverty is different from eradication of hunger. A person does not live by bread alone. For leading a reasonably decent and productive life, he needs accessibility to wholesome food, housing, sanitation, water, education, health care and employment opportunities. For this he needs an income of Rs.15000 per month. The poverty is said to be eradicated if the above attributes are made available to every family. The government will take at least 20 years to provide all these facilities to all the 14 crore families and banish the existing poverty. If the population becomes 136 crore by 2021 or 137 crore by 2031, the poverty can never by banished. On the other hand, India has also reached a critical situation and even 8.5% growth may not be sustainable in the near future. The Kirit Parikh Committee (set-up by the Planning Commission) worked out that India would need to generate 9.0 lakh MW of power by 2031 if 9% growth is to be maintained steadily. Now to scale up power generation to 9.0 lakh MW from the present 1.3 lakh MW level during the next 20 years appears almost an impossibility because of financial constraints and limited reserves of good quality coal. The only ray of hope lies in the scenario when government of India revises its National Population Control Policy and stabilises the population to 1300 million level by 2019 and then ensure a negative growth. Only then India may see the days when she is absolutely free from the encumbrances of poverty. Otherwise India will face all-round shortages and people will be fighting for food (food riots) and basic necessities of life leading to complete social chaos in the 2030s. A Sanskrit saying holds “a hungry person can commit any sin for the sake of his survival”. This process has already started and adulteration in food-stuff (particularly in milk and milk products) is a consequence of that. A nation commands respect in the comity of nations not by the number of billionaires but by the reduction of poverty levels and improvement in the Human Development Index. Can India stabilise its population at 1300 million by 2019 and then start a negative growth ? This is possible if the government starts a massive and aggressive education and awareness program for keeping a small family. The program should be so innovative that people should themselves make a bee line before the sterilisation camps. Additional innovative program for introducing a system of incentives and disincentives will further strengthen the main program. A professionally conducted education and awareness program always gives miraculous results. Smoking in urban areas has reduced tremendously due to this factor alone. The success story of Kerala can further show the way to all the states in achieving this holistic objective. The crux of the whole issue is that everything is possible if the political class develops a vision and the required willpower to translate it on the ground. |
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