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Setback in
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Chandigarh
thriller
Opportunism,
Karnataka style
When
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on global warming Border
talks with China positive Delhi Durbar
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Setback in Nepal It
is truly paradoxical that in the name of chasing a republic, the democratic elections to Nepal’s constituent assembly scheduled for November should have been put off indefinitely. This is a blow to both the democratic as well as the peace processes in one of the world’s poorest countries where parliamentary elections are overdue. The Nepalese government announced postponement of the elections on the very day the process of filing nominations was to open. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala, who heads the Seven-Party Alliance, had no choice but to stay the hand of the Election Commission, which had prepared for the polls against a number of odds. The SPA government could not have gone ahead with the elections in the face of Maoist opposition. The government and the Maoists may have agreed on postponing the elections, but this agreement itself was the result of disagreements that could not be resolved. It was for long suspected that the Maoists would put up roadblocks to the holding of elections. In the first act of the drama, the Maoists quit the government after raising 22 demands as a precondition for their continuation in the alliance and allowing elections to the constituent assembly. Two of these demands were that Nepal should be declared a republic now, before and not after the elections; and that the elections should be based on the fully proportional representation system. Declaring Nepal a republic either before or after the elections would not have made a material difference as parliament has sidelined the king and all parties are decidedly against retaining even a constitutional monarchy. But conceding this demand would not have ended the deadlock between the Maoists and the SPA because they were insistent that the electoral system should be changed just weeks before the actual polling. This is an impracticable demand and could only have been intended to get the elections postponed. The Maoists have achieved that objective, and with that once again plunged Nepal into a crisis, derailed the democratic process, raised doubts over their commitment to the peace agreement and, in general, created conditions that are ideal for political mischief and violence by undesirable elements, including royalists.
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Another mill fire The
death of 11 young workers in a Panipat textile mill fire once again raises the issue of safety in industrial establishments in the region. A month ago a worker was charred to death and another suffered serious burns when a pharmaceutical factory, near Dera Bassi, caught fire. Earlier in June this year, five persons had lost their lives in an explosion in a fireworks factory at Rohtak. The list is pretty long. Such industrial mishaps are not confined to any particular area or industry. However, textile, chemical and fireworks units are more prone to mishaps and many, unfortunately, are located close to residential areas. After every incident, the official response is the same: an inquiry is ordered, officials and politicians visit the victims in hospitals and announce compensation for the injured and the next of kin of the dead. The matter rests there until another tragedy strikes. A comprehensive survey of industrial units with regard to the implementation of the safety measures is hardly ever carried out. The violators quite often get away without punishment. The laws are lenient, the jail terms are short and the penalties ridiculously low. That is why the factory managements and owners take it easy. Even after the Bhopal, Uphaar and Dabwali disasters, we have not learnt the right lessons. The various governments have not yet put in place appropriate safety and legal mechanisms to prevent similar mishaps in future. There have been periodic reports of fire breaking out and leakage of poisonous gases in industrial units. The official excuses range from lack of adequate staff to delays in the judicial system. Until those found guilty of negligence and dereliction of duty are awarded deterrent punishment without delay, industrial safety measures would continue to be violated with impunity.
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Chandigarh thriller The
Sector 16 stadium at Chandigarh on Monday came alive to a memorable thriller that keeps India in the seven-match ODI series with Australia. The event also signals a return to the international circuit for a venue with many an emotional tie for top cricketers from the region. While Robin Uthappa and skipper Mahendra Singh Dhoni gave India a fighting total with a late surge in the Indian innings, the bowlers returned the favour with late wickets that kept India in the hunt, and finally closed the door on Australia with eight runs to spare. Barring some inconsistent bounce, it was a good cricketing wicket that was seeing an ODI after 14 years. There were runs to be made for those willing to see the shine off the new ball, and Sachin Tendulkar and Sourav Ganguly did well to lay a solid foundation. Fans here though would have missed the domination of the Sachin of yore. The match also saw the Indian team appear to finally put behind them the euphoria of the T-20 triumph and make the mental and technical changes for the ODI game. Team members would have loved to have savoured their championship win in South Africa for longer, rather than being thrust into a testing ODI series so soon after, with a team like Australia. With the series now open, Dhoni and the boys can focus on keeping the Aussies away with renewed vigour. The debate about the “big-three” – Sachin, Sourav and Rahul Dravid – can be expected to continue right through this series, and there is no doubt that they are very much under the scanner. Even Rahul Dravid has exposed himself to a critical eye, after his sudden quitting of the captaincy. Dhoni has grabbed his chance with open arms and is doing well. With eager youngsters waiting in the wings, the team should collectively ensure that they keep the momentum going.
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My words fly up, my thoughts remain below:/ Words without thoughts never to heaven go. — William Shakespeare
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Opportunism, Karnataka style Haryana
has had the distinction of giving the Indian political lexicon the terminology “Aya Ram Gaya Ram” to denote opportunistic floor crossings in order to acquire or retain power for personal profit. Karnataka has now aced Haryana by inventing an even more innovative form of opportunism, which can only be described as a father-son double act. It is plain for all to see that the Janata Dal (Secular) was loath to turn over power to the Bharatiya Janata Party to fulfil the promise made 20 months ago in return for the support enabling Mr H.D. Kumaraswamy to become Chief Minister. The latter had short-changed the Congress by peeling his party MLAs from the Congress-led government in the state. How the double act was played must rank as the most bizarre act in India’s political burlesque and needs retelling. Mr H.D. Deve Gowda, one-time Prime Minister and leader of the JD (S), made a song and dance about his son Kumaraswamy’s act in detaching his party MLAs from the Congress to secure the Chief Minister’s position in league with the BJP, totally discarding the secular label of his party. Mr Deve Gowda was ostensibly estranged from and angry at his son’s conduct. He was, of course, then guarding his secular image. Then suddenly the father and son made up. And the double act metamorphosed into a single act aimed at ensuring the Chief Minister’s chair for the son, or at any rate denying the office to the BJP leader. As it happened, the convenient excuse used was a murder charge slapped by a BJP minister on the Chief Minister, but that is hardly the substance of the motivation. Next only to Mr Deve Gowda’s burlesque act was the desperation of the BJP in seeking the Chief Minister’s office, particularly because it would have represented a first — a BJP-led coalition government in a southern state. Initially, the BJP insisted the Chief Minister must enforce the letter of the agreement by yielding place to the BJP candidate on the evening of October 2. And the BJP ministers went to the extent of submitting their resignations to Mr Kumaraswamy. Once the threat did not work, the BJP softened its stand to wait for the JD (S) decision. The BJP’s hopes were crushed when its flexibility served no purpose. The JD (S) would not turn over the Chief Minister’s office to the BJP, having also been encouraged by the party’s showing in local elections. The BJP’s bitterness was written all over the party, and Mr M. Venkaiah’s comment said it all: “This is the worst betrayal by a political party ever”. Mr Deve Gowda’s own comment is worthy of repetition: “They (the BJP) were trying to covert Karnataka into a Hindutva lab like Gujarat”. Having ditched the BJP, as he had earlier ditched the Congress, the JD (S) leader now found it safe to return to the secular boat, with an eye on the inevitable elections in the state that must follow and the early general election looming on the horizon. Mr Deve Gowda and his son have forced the country to consider the future of the Indian system of politics and governance. The attempt to stem floor crossings had resulted in the anti-defection law, which has had limited success. The criminal nexus that emerged in more than a few cases led political pundits to try to devise ways to discredit politicians with a criminal bent — until the discovery that their past conduct often did not dent their ability to win elections. Elected legislators’ obligation to reveal their assets was another measure to encourage them to follow the straight and narrow. It has had some effect in embarrassing them on occasion or at least benchmarking their wealth for future reference, should an unprecedented gold rush emerge. But it can hardly act as an omnibus deterrent. Politicians have also frequently debated state financing of elections along the German and other models on the assumption that increasingly vast amounts of money needed to win elections was the root cause of corruption in politics. For the layman, the widespread fear is that the state would have to shell out considerable sums to parties to contest elections that are growing in frequency while politicians would follow traditional methods of collecting money from the rich, who would, of course, need to be paid off through dispensing favours. There have been suggestions, notably by the BJP, to reduce the number of elections by synchronising state and parliamentary elections, to little effect. The problem, of course, is the ingenuity of the politician’s mind in beating the system and the lay public’s tendency to view all politicians with suspicion. This inevitably creates a measure of cynicism, which can only be deepened by the spectacular sleight of hand of Mr Deve Gowda and son. Second, it reveals the elasticity of such terms as “secular” and “communal”. Mr Deve Gowda was quite happy to coexist with the BJP in the same government for 20 months but discovered the evils of the BJP form of communalism as soon as the latter demanded its pound of flesh. Which brings us to the moral fibre of the people, politicians and others alike. Like Russians and Chinese becoming cutthroat competitors and voracious consumers in their post-Communist avatars, has the fabric of Indian society been shredded by the newly acquired consumer society in which money and possessions are the only gods? Growing riches of many are a temptation for the bureaucrats and those who are not so rich. There are acknowledged political short-cuts to acquiring wealth. The answer is not to live in poverty. How then is the country to upgrade and reform politicians of all hues? The answer lies in the hands of people — the voters. A roster of corrupt and turncoat politicians has been circulated in the past to a limited extent. The Internet age now holds immense possibilities in getting tech-savvy volunteers to conduct a vast countrywide blitz to influence voters to oppose candidates who have distinguished themselves by hopping parties for personal profit or have otherwise covered themselves in glory by indulging in criminal conduct of the usual or more esoteric varieties such as trafficking in human
bodies.
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When winter comes Time
was, in the 30s and early 40s of the last century such a thing as the “Delhi season”. It began in early November and lasted till mid-March when Their Excellencies the Viceroy and the Commander-in-Chief, accompanied by their personal staff and followed by hordes of bureaucrats and babus, made their annual exodus to S(h)imla. Nowadays, the “season” lasts a full 12 months. Air-conditioned auditoriums, and entertainment halls have made it possible for troupes of former performers to fly out with their stage effects and instruments to delight us with their repertoire ranging in variety from burlesque to the latest plays from London and New York, Shakespearana, ballets and what have you. Outdoors, in our brilliantly-lit astro-turf laid stadia we sit and witness Test matches, championship football and athletics. In our five-star hotels, apart from a sumptuous (and terribly expensive) repast we can round off the evening with a floor show or take the floor ourselves to indulge in what is now called “ballroom dancing”. Native talent is also very much in evidence with plays, recitals, concerts and art exhibitions. What did we do, pre-War, to amuse ourselves without these attractions and outlets? For one thing, November saw the opening of the sporting season. One spent a lazy Sunday morning and afternoon watching the MCC play an Indian side on the grounds of the Roshanara Club. The team, of course, came out by sea and included such masters of the game as Jardine, Tate and Gilligan. The Qudsia Garden, now desecrated by the ISBT, was the venue of the All-India Lawn Tennis tournament. Indoor entertainment was limited in scope and variety but what little we had, we enjoyed to the full. The days of the silent films ended in 1930 with the opening of the Capitol cinema in Kashmere Gate followed by the Regal, the Rivoli and the Plaza in New Delhi. For those keen on blood sports, there was duck shooting on the jheels around Delhi and where our posh colonies now stand, wild boar and deer. We danced sedately at our clubs and a little less sedately at Wengers and Davicos in Connaught Place. The bush-shirt had not made its appearance and it had to be lounge suits at tea-dances and D.J at night. In the mid-thirties, the most popular resort of the dancing set was Hakman’s Astoria in C.P. Then came the War and the Yankee “invasion” sending prices and one’s sense of values haywire. Life has never been the same again. Not that it matters to people of my generation. We are on our way
out.
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Cool off on global warming Curiously, something that’s rarely mentioned is that temperatures in Greenland were higher in 1941 than they are today. Or that melt rates around Ilulissat were faster in the early part of the past century, according to a new study. And while the delegations first fly into Kangerlussuaq, about 100 miles to the south, they all change planes to go straight to Ilulissat – perhaps because the Kangerlussuaq glacier is inconveniently growing. I point this out not to challenge the reality of global warming or the fact that it’s caused in large part by humans, but because the discussion about climate change has turned into a nasty dustup, with one side arguing that we’re headed for catastrophe and the other maintaining that it’s all a hoax. I say that neither is right. It’s wrong to deny the obvious: The Earth is warming, and we’re causing it. But that’s not the whole story, and predictions of impending disaster also don’t stack up. We have to rediscover the middle ground, where we can have a sensible conversation. We shouldn’t ignore climate change or the policies that could attack it. But we should be honest about the shortcomings and costs of those policies, as well as the benefits. Environmental groups say that the only way to deal with the effects of global warming is to make drastic cuts in carbon emissions - a project that will cost the world trillions (the Kyoto Protocol alone would cost $180 billion annually). It means spending an awful lot to achieve very little. Instead, we should be thinking creatively and pragmatically about how we could combat the much larger challenges facing our planet. Nobody knows for certain how climate change will play out. But we should deal with the most widely accepted estimates. According to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ocean levels will rise between half a foot and two feet, with the best expectation being about one foot, in this century, mainly because of water expanding as it warms. That’s similar to what the world experienced in the past 150 years. Some individuals and environmental organizations scoff that the IPCC has severely underestimated the melting of glaciers, especially in Greenland. In fact, the IPCC has factored in the likely melt-off from Greenland (contributing a bit over an inch to sea levels in this century) and Antarctica (which, because global warming also generally produces more precipitation, will actually accumulate ice rather than shedding it, making sea levels two inches lower by 2100). A one-foot rise in sea level isn’t a catastrophe, though it will pose a problem, particularly for small island nations. But let’s remember that very little land was lost when sea levels rose last century. It costs relatively little to protect the land from rising tides: We can drain wetlands, build levees and divert waterways. As nations become richer and land becomes a scarcer commodity, this process makes ever more sense: Like our parents and grandparents, our generation will ensure that the water doesn’t claim valuable land. The IPCC tells us two things: If we focus on economic development and ignore global warming, we’re likely to see a 13-inch rise in sea levels by 2100. If we focus instead on environmental concerns and, for instance, adopt the hefty cuts in carbon emissions many environmental groups promote, this could reduce the rise by about five inches. But cutting emissions comes at a cost: Everybody would be poorer in 2100. With less money around to protect land from the sea, cutting carbon emissions would mean that more dry land would be lost, especially in vulnerable regions such as Micronesia, Tuvalu, Vietnam, Bangladesh and the Maldives. As sea levels rise, so will temperatures. It seems logical to expect more heat waves and therefore more deaths. But though this fact gets much less billing, rising temperatures will also reduce the number of cold spells. This is important because research shows that the cold is a much bigger killer than the heat. According to the first complete peer-reviewed survey of climate change’s health effects, global warming will actually save lives. It’s estimated that by 2050, global warming will cause almost 400,000 more heat-related deaths each year. But at the same time, 1.8 million fewer people will die from cold. The Kyoto Protocol, with its drastic emissions cuts, is not a sensible way to stop people from dying in future heat waves. At a much lower cost, urban designers and politicians could lower temperatures more effectively by planting trees, adding water features and reducing the amount of asphalt in at-risk cities. Estimates show that this could reduce the peak temperatures in cities by more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Global warming will claim lives in another way: by increasing the number of people at risk of catching malaria by about 3 percent over this century. According to scientific models, implementing the Kyoto Protocol for the rest of this century would reduce the malaria risk by just 0.2 percent. On the other hand, we could spend $3 billion annually – 2 percent of the protocol’s cost – on mosquito nets and medication and cut malaria incidence almost in half within a decade. Of course, it’s not just humans we care about. Environmentalists point out that magnificent creatures such as polar bears will be decimated by global warming as their icy habitat melts. Kyoto would save just one bear a year. Yet every year, hunters kill 300 to 500 polar bears, according to the World Conservation Union. Outlawing this slaughter would be cheap and easy – and much more effective than a worldwide pact on carbon emissions. Wherever you look, the inescapable conclusion is the same: Reducing carbon emissions is not the best way to help the world. I don’t point this out merely to be contrarian. We do need to fix global warming in the long run. But I’m frustrated at our blinkered focus on policies that won’t achieve it. The Kyoto Protocol is set to expire in 2012. U.N. members will be negotiating its replacement in Copenhagen by the end of 2009. Politicians insist that the “next Kyoto” should be even tougher. But after two spectacular failures, we have to ask whether “let’s try again, and this time let’s aim for much higher reductions” is the right approach. Even if the policymakers’ earlier promises had been met, they would have done virtually no good, but would have cost us a small fortune. The typical cost of cutting a ton of CO2 is currently about $20. Yet, according to a wealth of scientific literature, the damage from a ton of carbon in the atmosphere is about $2. Spending $20 to do $2 worth of good is not smart policy. It may make you feel good, but it’s not going to stop global warming. We need to reduce the cost of cutting emissions from $20 a ton to, say, $2. That would mean that really helping the environment wouldn’t be the preserve of the rich but could be opened up to everyone else - including China and India, which are expected to be the main emitters of the 21st century but have many more pressing issues to deal with first. The way to achieve this is to dramatically increase spending on research and development of low-carbon energy. I formed the Copenhagen Consensus in 2004 so that some of the world’s top economists could come together to ask not only where we can do good, but at what cost, and to rank the best things for the world to do first. The top priorities they’ve come up with are dealing with infectious diseases, malnutrition, agricultural research and first-world access to third-world agriculture. For less than a fifth of Kyoto’s price tag, we could tackle all these issues. Bjorn Lomborg is an adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School.
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Border talks with China positive Yet
another round of talks spread over three days, eleventh in the series on the border dispute between India and China, concluded in Beijing on September 26. As usual the meeting was held in-camera and there was no substantive achievement worth pronouncing. Although one major reason for souring of the relationship between India and China was the border issue, positive developments in the bilateral relationship in the last few years have over shadowed the vexed border dispute. At the same time, however, the two countries know well that they can ill afford to ignore the dispute, because it is an issue which is high in the national self-esteem of the two countries. The two countries have thus adopted a very pragmatic approach of first creating a climate of mutual understanding, appreciation and accommodation and then addressing the border issue with an open mind, receptive to new ideas. With an objective of providing an institutional mechanism to address the border issue on a continuous basis, the Joint Working Group was established during the visit of the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to China in 1988. To aid and assist the Joint Working Group, Special Representatives were appointed in 2003 to take a political view of the dispute. After hectic parleys, the two sides agreed on political parameters and guiding principles for settling the dispute in April 2005. Article III of the guiding principles stipulates that “both sides should, in the spirit of mutual respect and mutual understanding, make meaningful and mutually acceptable adjustments to their respective positions, to arrive at a package settlement to the boundary question”. The guiding principle further envisages that the settlement has to be a package deal covering all sectors of the boundary – western, middle and eastern. While the negotiations on these sensitive issues may not be that easy, the improvement in the bilateral relationship between the two countries and the convergence of approach and outlook, in turn, has created a very conducive condition for the border parleys. This is not withstanding irritants such as denial of visa to a civil servant from Arunachal Pradesh, a part of which China claims belongs to it. There is a perception that these talks are nothing more than talking about talks. But a deeper analysis suggests that this is not so. Unlike Indo-Pak talks which is equally sensitive, India-China border talks have been held on low-key without arousing any kind of unrealistic optimism or expectation. Talks have been slow, but steady, without meeting any roadblock. This is symbolic of the maturing of relationship between the two countries which has been achieved over the years. The progress though incremental has been structured, focused and devoid of exuberance. China over the years has mastered the dexterity and finesse of diplomacy and negotiation.. The press release issued after the Talks by the Indian Embassy in Beijing mentioned that the two sides agreed that the next round of talks would be held in Beijing. Normally the venue of border talks have alternated between India and China. It may be that the next round of border talks which will precede the forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh sometime later this year, will prepare the ground for some major breakthrough after long and arduous negotiations. Negotiations on such issues are time consuming as they take into account a complex matrix of factors. China in the recent past has, however, successfully concluded a number of border issues left over by history with a number of South-east Asian countries, sharing a land border or maritime border with it. Given the present state of a warm relationship between the two countries, perhaps a breakthrough in the border talks cannot be ruled out during summit meeting. It need not be an absolute solution, but may be a modality to arrive at a solution. The writer is Joint Director (Research) in the Lok Sabha Secretariat. The views expressed are personal.
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Delhi Durbar They
might rave and rant against the UPA government in public but Left leaders still enjoy a cordial working relationship with their colleagues in the ruling alliance when they meet in private. Contrary to popular perception, there are no raised voices or unseemly slanging matches when the meetings of the UPA-Left joint committee are held to resolve their differences over the Indo-US nuclear agreement. The discussions are very business-like but there is a lot of lighthearted banter before and after the deliberations. At the last meeting, CPI general secretary A.B. Bardhan sat on one of the chairs normally occupied by Congress leaders. This did not go unnoticed by the others who were quick to dub it as a “defection”. This was promptly countered by a Congress minister who said it was better described as “deception.” This raised many laughs but once the meeting got underway, it was business as usual.
Ailing Cong? The frail nature of the UPA government appears to have affected the health of several Congress leaders. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh underwent a surgery recently, AICC treasurer Motilal Vora was also hosptialised some time back.Another Congress general secretary Janardan Dwivedi is undergoing treatment at a city hospital and the ever-energetic parliamentary affairs minister Priyaranjan Dasmunsi was rushed for an emergency operation last week. Worried Congress leaders and workers are hoping thre are no more additions to the list of ailing as they would like the party to be fighting fit, especially since an early election may well be round the corner.
Empty philosophy Union Home Minister Shivraj Patil likes to sprinkle his speeches with philosophical musings. When he addressed a conference of DGPs and IGs recently, he dwelt briefly on the nature of man and non-violence. “The finger that pulls the trigger is more important than the gun, and the mind that guides the finger is more important than the finger, and the spirit and the ethos that inspires is more important than the mind.” Needless to say, those attending the conference went back duly enlightened.
Project declutter While conversation at Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Iftar last week, predictably, dwelt primarily on the UPA-Left estrangement over the Indo-US nuke deal, the PM”s wife Gursharan Kaur and social justice and empowerment minister Meira Kumar had other things to talk about. The two women were overheard having a serious discussion on the problems of dealing with clutter. At one point, an exasperated Gursharan exclaimed that they had acquired so many things in the last three-and-a-half years that she wondered how she would manage when it was time to move. To some, it sounds like a normal,everyday conversation but given the current political situation, it could well be seen as a pointer of things to come. Contributed by R. Suryamurthy, Prashant Sood and Anita Katyal
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COPENHAGEN — All eyes are on Greenland’s melting glaciers as alarm about global warming spreads. This year, delegations of US and European politicians have made pilgrimages to the fastest-moving glacier at Ilulissat, where they declare that they see climate change unfolding before their eyes.