The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

EDITORIALS

Chitrakoot musings
RSS won’t loosen its grip on BJP

REFORMS mean many things to many people. When the RSS says the BJP is “slow” in carrying out ideological and organisational reforms, it has a different connotation than when the BJP says the government is slow in implementing economic reforms. The reforms the RSS has in mind for the BJP are, as expected, intended to ensure that the party remains a votary of Hindutva. At the recent Chitrakoot session of the RSS national executive, the common refrain was that it did not interfere in the affairs of the BJP. But RSS general secretary Mohan Bhagwat’s speech at the concluding session, where he suggested that the BJP should follow the collective leadership pattern, only buttresses the point that the parent organisation wants to keep the BJP in control and follow what is being described as guidelines. Some in the BJP will be inclined to take them as the RSS commandments.

BJP chief Lal Krishna Advani has dared to blame the RSS for remote-controlling the party, though he woke up to the reality only when he found such controls inconvenient for him. Otherwise, he never in his political career had any problem in turning to Nagpur for counsel or in promoting issues of Hindutva like Ayodhya. The problem arose only when he wanted to discard his image as a hardliner and assume the mantle of a secularist, who is even prepared to give Pakistan founder Mohammed Ali Jinnah a clean chit. But in the RSS scheme of things, there is no need for an image makeover for the BJP, with which it wants to achieve its own political objectives.

The RSS believes that the BJP would have done better in the last elections if it had remained steadfast in its Hindutva ideals. It does not realise that even among the Hindus the constituency for Hindutva is small. Elections have proved that the dead horse of Hindutva cannot be flogged again and again, even for effect. The BJP can grow only if it succeeds in bringing under its fold a large section of the people who believe in the pluralistic traditions of the country. The best the RSS can do is to keep aloof and allow the BJP to mind its own business. In any case, it has no right to suggest collective leadership when power within the RSS itself rests with one person, who even has the right to nominate his successor. Also, collective leadership does not amount to internal democracy in a functioning political party. The basic question remains unanswered in spite of the deliberations at Chitrakoot: Is the RSS ready to free the BJP from its stranglehold? The answer may be “No”.

Cause of Kashmir
Congress must forgo its claim to CM’s post

THE situation in Jammu and Kashmir has provided an opportunity to the Congress to earn the goodwill of the nation, including the troubled people of Jammu and Kashmir. The opportunity lies in abandoning its claim, though a rightful one, to head the coalition government in Srinagar. The agreement reached between the Congress and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed after the 2002 assembly elections has it that the PDP Chief Minister will give way to the installation of a Congress head of government by November 2, 2005. But the circumstances prevailing today are such that any attempt to disturb the existing arrangement may not be in the interest of the nation.

The Congress leadership at the Centre, which is holding hectic consultations on the matter, must be finding it difficult to convince those in its ranks who may be pressing for going ahead according to the accord with the PDP. But they can be made to understand the complexities of the situation, calling for a bit of sacrifice by the Congress. It is not that the Mufti government’s record has been exceptionally flattering. Nevertheless, there is a general feeling among the observers of the Kashmir scene that the Congress should not be seen to be so keen on installing its own Chief Minister when the earthquake-hit people in Uri and many other areas are struggling for survival.

There is another and equally pressing reason for the Congress to forgo its claim: the future of the dialogue process started by the Centre with the Hurriyat Conference. The Centre has also to hold talks with other leaders of Jammu and Kashmir. The process may get disturbed once there is a change of guard in Srinagar. The people of the state, particularly the valley, have somehow developed a kind of feeling which will be missing once there is a regime change. The PDP has an advantage because of being basically a valley-based organization. The nation’s interests will be served if the Congress leaders in the state as well as in Delhi facilitate a dialogue between the Centre and various sections of public opinion on the issue of greater autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir. This task the Congress can perform better if the party does not take up the reins of government.

Deadly warning
Can the region handle a flu pandemic?

IN a chilling warning, the regional office of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared that a threat of an influenza pandemic arising out of the bird flu outbreak was not only real, but a question of “when and not if.” Such a pandemic, defined as an epidemic spread over a large geographical area affecting a sizable percentage of the population, could claim human casualties “in the order of millions.” Though South-East Asian countries have been specifically alerted, India too is evidently in danger, given its proximity to the region. The Health Ministry appears to be seized of the matter, with contingency plans to procure the necessary anti-viral drugs in case human-to-human transmission is reported from anywhere in the world.

Such transmission is key to a pandemic. The danger is considered real, as a pathogenic strain of the bird flu virus with the ability to jump the species barrier and infect humans has already emerged. Identified as H5N1, it has infected 116 people of whom 60 died. If this virus acquires human genes, mutating into a new subtype, then transmission can occur from one human being to another. The “when, not if” warning is reflective of a widespread expectation that this can happen anytime now, as H5N1 appears to have a unique ability to acquire genes from other species.

It has happened before, and not too long ago. In 1918, a similar flu emerged in Spain that killed an incredible five crore people. Scientists, in fact, have recently resurrected this deadly virus in the laboratory, and made its genetic code widely available on the web, triggering off concerns about bio-terrorism and accidental release. In the US (1983-84) and Italy (1999-2001), millions of birds had to be killed to prevent a pandemic by H5N2 and H7N1 viruses. There is no vaccine for H5N1, and the virus appears to be growing resistant to the available drugs. The WHO has organised a meeting in November which primarily aims to control avian influenza and “simultaneously prepare for a pandemic.” Those are ominous words.

ARTICLE

After the earthquake
President Musharraf in a tight spot
by S. Nihal Singh

THE Indian subcontinent and the world grieve over the earthquake tragedy that has devastated Kashmir and a portion of Pakistan, but given the tangled nature of relations between India and Pakistan, nature’s fury has, in a sense, both united and further divided the two countries. The peoples on both sides of the Line of Control in Kashmir are united in their grief and desirous of helping each other. But the politics of an old dispute intervene as New Delhi and Islamabad consider the geopolitical consequences even as they endeavour to give succour to the victims.

One consequence of the tragedy is all too apparent: neither India nor Pakistan can go back to the pre-earthquake phase in Kashmir. The irrelevance and “melting” of the Line of Control has been much bandied about by the media and politicians alike in recent days. It was indeed a rhetorical theme of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Pervez Musharraf in their studied attempts at seeking a rapprochement or a halfway house in resolving the Kashmir issue. Now nature has decreed that an attempt be made to give some substance to the idea.

Before attempting an answer to how this can be done, it would be useful to look at the scorecard. General Musharraf has been weakened by the tragedy by the Pakistan Army’s inexcusable delay in helping the victims, the fact that he chose to sit on India’s immediate offer of help and in ceding the credit for reaching such help as was possible to the jehadi outfits. On the Indian side — the scale of the devastation was far less — there was praise by Kashmiris for the Indian Army’s help and curses for the Jammu and Kashmir civilian authorities for their tardiness and some misgivings over New Delhi making a fetish of not accepting international help. Pakistanis welcomed Indian help, first by air and then by road and rail.

Whatever substance there is to reports that, in view of the losses sustained by the Pakistani Army in the Kashmir it administers, its fist priority was to move in reinforcements to guard against a possible (and highly unlikely) Indian attack, the delay in reaching succour to the victims was damaging. Given the scale of the devastation, Pakistan needed outside help to cope with it, but it felt hamstrung by India’s tantalising offer of helicopters because of fears of Indian pilots’ ability to study the nature of the devastation and the losses suffered by jihadi groups. Its ploy of ultimately accepting the helicopters without the crew was too transparent to carry conviction.

For India, the anxiety was to ensure that the jihadi groups would not use the slogan of “open borders” to send armies of insurgents across the Line of Control. It was obvious from the continuing infiltration attempts after the earthquake and acts of murder and mayhem conducted in Kashmir that the message the jihadis wanted to send to New Delhi and Srinagar was that despite their losses, the jihadis’ capacity for mischief was unimpaired. Other insurgent groups pointedly violated one jihadi umbrella group’s announcement of a ceasefire.

For the Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC, the mood was different. They railed at the division of the state and at any impediments that came in their way of getting together. It was ironic that the buses that brought them together after the start of the historic bus service should have left dozens of Kashmiris stranded on the other side. To the expansive, and largely rhetorical, proposal of President Musharraf to open the dividing line, New Delhi’s carefully crafted counter-proposal to open three points across the LoC where Kashmiris could come for treatment and meeting their relatives is to ensure that jihadis do not use it as a ploy to infiltrate men and arms. India’s decision to permit cross-border telephone connections was similarly circumscribed by a timeframe to discourage jihadis using a new means of spreading terror.

There is, in a sense, a competitive bid by both India and Pakistan to please Kashmiris and employ the tragedy to demonstrate their eagerness to help. On the Indian side, the Army has scored a few Brownie points in the manner and speed with which it helped the victims. By the same token, the civilian authorities have smudged their copybook. Pakistanis face a more serious problem because an Army-ruled state failed to measure up to Kashmiri expectations. General Musharraf’s reference to President Bush’s tardiness in coping with Katrina in New Orleans found few sympathetic listeners. How lasting the Kashmiris’ loss of faith in the Pakistan Army is remains to be seen.

After a time, the Kashmir issue will not be determined by scoring points against one another, but rather in using this great human tragedy as an opportunity to climb a few more steps on the ladder to peace. It stands to reason that, given the political and physical problems facing Pakistan, President Musharraf will not be in a position to make a serious attempt at resolving such a contentious issue as Kashmir. First, he will have to place the Kashmiris’ rehabilitation on a solid footing (doubtless with international assistance) and devise a method of seeking reconciliation with them.

How far Pakistan’s opposition parties can use General Musharraf’s discomfiture to their advantage remains to be seen. The General’s formula has been to ban the leaders of the two principal parties to return home, but his tactical alliance with Islamic parties is frayed because his success in getting American support is dependent upon his zeal in tackling Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. He has been delivering Al-Qaeda operatives in small, calibrated doses even as he periodically cosies up to the Islamists. General Musharraf’s strength is that he has convinced the Bush administration of his indispensability to their scheme of things in Afghanistan and further afield.

It is, in any case, essential to grasp the geopolitical aspects of the problems raised by the earthquake devastation even as both India and Pakistan do their utmost to relieve the suffering of Kashmiris. Relying on the milk of human kindness to wish away deep-seated problems is asking for the moon.

MIDDLE

K-watcher’s dilemma
by Shveta Pathak

NOT that I am a diehard fan of Tulsis and Parvatis but occasionally I do not mind watching these television serials. My boastful self, however, often proclaims to be a part of the “class’ that just cannot tolerate the K-type stuff.

Never would I miss a chance to condemn those scheming “bahus” for playing a key role in distorting people’s minds and wasting their precious time. I would also never miss an opportunity to discuss a programme, if I happened to watch, on the channels for the bright and thoughtful — History, Discovery, CNBC etc.

I do not know when switching on the television the moment I enter my home became a habit. All this while, I had been quite happy with myself and proud of the “fact” that I had not been addicted to the idiot box.

So recently, when I went to a friend’s place, I was quick to protest when another friend picked up the remote. We condemned the friend, and in turn, cable TV, for ruining our evening.

But the friend was not the type who would give up, and that too meekly. After a few unsuccessful attempts, she finally managed to switch on the TV.

Before any of us could register our displeasure, my eyes fell on a notice on the TV screen about an indefinite strike by the cable operators of Ludhiana and the consequent suspension of cable services.

The news filled me with joy, rather contentment, as if I had proved something.

The following day when I returned home from office, I intuitively switched on the television set only to realise that the cable services were suspended.

“Good riddance”, I said to myself. “I’d finally get a chance to finish the book I’d been reading for quite some time”.

The second day I was prepared that there would be no TV. As my routine was disturbed, I went out in the evening. Since the situation remained unchanged the next day, too, I remained in office much beyond my usual time.

Three days later, I found that I was, in fact dying to watch television. Somewhere, Tulsis and Parvatis had become a part of my life too. At last, happiness had taken over from pride.

OPED

Disaster management
Need for an integrated approach
by G.S. Bedi

“For whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee,” is an apt quote from John Donne in the present circumstances. Today it is the turn of the people in Kashmir, tomorrow it may be ours. The thought is petrifying.

In Chandigarh, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi and other highly quake-prone areas, one is just sitting on the powder keg ready to explode. One does not know if the high-rise building that one is living in would come down like the modern apartment building in Islamabad.

Expert after expert blares out of the TV box that earthquakes cannot be predicted. The situation is hopeless. But what makes it more depressing is the tardy pace of rescue operations. There are no professionals in sight. It is the local people who are trying to take out their near and dear ones buried under the concrete rubble with their bare hands and sledgehammers.

Even if aid from the whole world pours in, what use will it be to one who does not survive the initial neglect? People in inaccessible areas are more unfortunate. Their lives extinguish slowly and most excruciatingly in the vain hope that somebody will come to their rescue.

The devastation caused by the earthquake is heart rending. More than 40,000 people have died and double the number have got wounded. More than two million have been displaced.

The survivors on both sides were without food, water, shelter, blankets and medicines for a number of days, braving the cold winter nights out in the open. Could we possibly have saved some of the dead and provided succour to the wounded and homeless in time?

Effective disaster management requires an integrated approach on three planes. The first is streamlining the mechanism of prompt relief and rescue operations to mitigate the damage. The second is preventive measures like reducing the vulnerability of buildings and other structures by laying down site-specific construction recommendations and regulations. The third is the installation of early warning systems for timely prediction of earthquakes.

The Disaster Management Bill 2005 takes care of the first. The exercise started immediately in the wake of the tsunami disaster in December last year. The Bill was introduced in the Rajya Sabha on May 11, 2005, and is awaiting introduction in the Lok Sabha in the coming winter Session.

The aim of the Bill is to provide a holistic, coordinated and prompt response to any natural or man-made disaster. It proposes to set up the national, state and district level disaster management authorities with he Prime Minister, the Chief Minister and the District Collector as the respective Chairman.

The responsibilities of the authority will be to lay down the policies, plans and guidelines. The controlling ministry is the Ministry of Home Affairs.

These authorities are assisted by disaster management executive committees comprising Secretaries at the national and state levels. At the district level the authority and executive committee are the same.

A National Disaster Response Force of 8,000 persons is proposed to be raised. It encourages the involvement of NGOs and welfare institutions working at the grassroots level.

It is not known whether the National Disaster Management Authority has held any meeting. The state machinery was conspicuous by its absence. The death toll kept on increasing with every passing day in the inaccessible areas. Even on fourth day after the disaster, many were without food, blankets and tents.

The only redeeming feature was the P.M’s announcement of Rs 640 crore relief package and assistance from nearby Army units. The state did not have any disaster management authority. In any case the Bill is not applicable to J&K only three states — Orissa, Gujarat and Bihar — have activated the disaster management authorities. Some aspects of the Bill require streamlining. First and foremost is the nomenclature of the bill. The words “Authority” conjure up the feelings of a fearsome regulating entity whereas it is designed to provide services. It should be more appropriately named as “Agency”. Secondly, the provisions regarding the involvement of NGO (s) and local communities need to be more elaborate. At present there are no provision for their funding and active involvement. They must have a say in drawing and implementing the policies and plans at all levels. However, they must not be placed under the Authority for their operations. As has been the experience in India and world over, it is these organisations, which reach at the earliest and provide the succour. In Muzaffarabad, it was the ambulance and vehicles of Abdul Sattar Elahi’s Karachi based relief organisation, which were seen at the disaster sites.

The automatic and voluntary involvement of the armed forces need to be institutionalised. The Bill proposes their deployment through requisition by the District Magistrate. Bureaucratic hurdles must not come in the way of armed forces deployment at critical times. Special funds must be made available to the armed forces for these tasks.

The standard operating procedures for the deployment of the Disaster Management Response Force will have to be worked up. It is suggested that this force be organised on the pattern of TA battalions which on full embodiment will comprise a large number of locals.

With the availability of huge seismic data, powerful supercomputers for data analysis, GPS and satellite imaging techniques, we are almost on the verge of predicting earthquakes. We must be active partners in the worldwide technology initiative in this regard. Mr Kapil Sibal, Minister for Science and Technology, has hinted at importing technology from Iceland for installing the early warning system. Earlier in the year, President A.P.J Abdul Kalam had visited the Prediction Technology Centre in Iceland.

The technique involves the study of chemical changes in water deep in the earth’s crust through deep wells dug in the earthquake prone areas. The theory is that the pressure changes and the movements along geological faults cause chemical changes in the water.

French model shows signs of stress
by Sebastian Rotella

AFTER taking office this summer, French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin promised “economic patriotism’’ would drive his effort to revive a battered government and slumping economy.

The government’s aggressive campaign to protect French workers and companies contributes to questions about the inherent contradictions of the “French model’’: a robust private sector full of multinational corporate giants coexisting with a vast welfare state and a political class that often sounds hostile to economic globalization or, as Chirac calls it, “Anglo-Saxon liberalism.’’

When does legitimate defense of French interests cross the line into populist protectionism? And does the government’s interventionist bent hurt or help foreign investment and national prosperity?

By most measures, France is in crisis. The unemployment rate has been stuck at around 10 percent during Chirac’s 10 years in office, and annual growth has been sluggish. The French spend less time on the job than most Europeans because of a 35-hour workweek, high youth joblessness and increasingly early retirement ages.

As a result, the budget deficit has ballooned. A massive national bureaucracy strains to preserve costly health and welfare programs, entrenched labor protections and generous perks: A motorman for the state railway can earn about $90,000 for a 25-hour workweek with free healthcare and retire at 50.

Moreover, voters are disgusted with the political establishment. As extremists gain ground right and left, internal conflict tears at mainstream parties. And the ruling center-right coalition is trying to recover from the defeat in May of a referendum of the proposed constitution for the European Union, a stunning repudiation of a government that saw itself as the architect of a united Europe.

“France is schizophrenic,’’ said Nicholas Baverez, a noted commentator and the author of “France Is Falling,’’ a book published in 2003. ``It has on one hand a political and social system that is collapsing and that is completely detached from the reality of the modern world of the 21st century. On the other hand, there are individuals, public or private organizations, companies that are at the top global level. There is no positive cooperation between the two. Just a big gap that is growing.’’

Until recently, many voters apparently agreed. The nation’s most popular politician has been Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, who is the ruling party’s chief and a strong presidential contender. Sarkozy’s admiration for the free-market-oriented policies of Britain and the United States makes him a maverick. He says France must break with the past — and implicitly, his archrivals Chirac and de Villepin — and chop spending, bureaucracy and regulations in order to create jobs, businesses and growth.

But de Villepin stepped into the breach four months ago, promising that his top priority would be employment. His deft message has defined him as an alternative to Sarkozy’s daring promise to break with the French model.

De Villepin makes no apologies about defending “France and things French.’’ Regardless of ideology or style, all governments fight for their private sectors in the global arena, he told Les Echos newspaper in an interview last month.

— LA Times-Washington Post

Delhi Durbar
President’s gesture

President A P J Abdul Kalam did not allow the Karva Chauth on October 20 to come in the way of the banquet he hosted for the Army commanders.

The wives of the Chief of Air Staff and the Chief of Naval Staff were keeping the traditional fast and did not want to have food before sighting the moon.

The President’s secretariat was alerted and arrangements were made for the spouses to perform pooja and then assemble for the banquet. Dr Kalam accordingly delayed his appearance at the banquet. The gesture was widely appreciated.

Uma Bharti at it again

The BJP leadership is finding the going tricky as Uma Bharti has set her eyes on returning as the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. She continues to claim that she has more than a hundred MPs and MLAs with her. With the BJP leadership unwilling to give in to her tantrums, she is now saying that she is willing to wait till the results of the Bihar assembly elections are declared. She tried to get BJP General Secretary Arun Jaitley second her, but he just refused to utter a word. Babu Lal Gaur is carrying on manfully, hoping the axe would not fall on him.

French film festival

French Ambassador Dominique Girard wants to change the Indian public perception about French films. Addressing a gathering at his residence on Friday while inaugurating a six-day French film festival “Rendezvous with French cinema”, Girard said that they are trying to catch the young urban audience for the film festival.

“We want to demonstrate that French films are also good commercial films and not necessarily slow-paced films made for film festivals,” The Ambassador said: There was “no better way to start than by tying up with PVR, a multiplex chain.” The festival began with the screening of Luc Besson’s “Taxi”.

The seven films selected for the ongoing festival are recent and have been made by a new generation of directors.

PM, Sonia as role models

A minister from Himachal Pradesh who had gone to express his gratitude to Congress President Sonia Gandhi for appointing

his son as a PCC office-bearer described the harmonious equation between her and Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh as a role model of party-government coordination.

He said that leaders in states should emulate the example of the two top party leaders. But with the PCC chiefs in most states drawn from camps opposed to the Chief Ministers, it remains to be seen how far the role-model theory goes.

Contributed by S Satyanarayanan, Tripti Nath and Prashant Sood.