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The AIDS monster An Asian oil market |
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Media doesn’t hinder Need for free flow of information PAKISTAN has begun responding to India's initiative to liberalise its visa regime for journalists from across the border. President Gen Pervez Musharraf is reported to have asked its High Commission in New Delhi to give multiple entry visas for Indian journalists who want to visit that country.
Needed a cohesive military doctrine
Honestly speaking
AIDS spreading fast in Asia Will NDA stay
or fade away?
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The AIDS monster IT is ironical that while news about anyone suffering from some disease evokes sympathy, a similar piece of information about AIDS earns ridicule and shame. That is why the pandemic is growing exponentially. From one reported case in 1986, India today has come to a stage where it has more than five million patients on hand. If the trend is not reversed, the situation may be as bad here as it is in some parts of Africa, where the son of Nelson Mandela has become the latest victim of the dreaded disease which has no cure. That is why the Media Leaders Summit on AIDS held in Delhi earlier this week had a pressing urgency about it. The disease is growing by leaps and bounds because of the tendency to keep it hidden. As noted Hollywood actor Richard Gere mentioned, "we all assumed that it was someone else who was HIV positive and when it became personal, it was too late". He was talking of the US of 1980s. That head-in-the-sand attitude is all the more true of India where the conservative society does not want to discuss anything about a disease generally transmitted sexually. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh hit the nail on the head when he said that in the absence of a vaccine, the social vaccine of education and awareness is the only antidote against it. Thailand is no less conservative than India and yet it has launched a full-fledged war against AIDS and has even managed to lower the rate. The same is true of Uganda. There is no reason why it cannot be done in India. All that is needed is committed leadership. What cannot be lost sight of is the fact that today a majority of the victims are not those who contract it because of any promiscuity but those who get it from their spouses or parents. So, innocent women and children are in the direct firing line. They can be protected only if a concerted effort is made to generate awareness among people. A lot has indeed been done in this regard. But a lot more needs to be done. |
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An Asian oil market ASIAN oil consumers led by India met some top producers, including Saudi Arabia, in Delhi on Thursday to demand price stability and assured supply to prevent the recurrence of the “shock” witnessed in 2004. Asian countries account for 35 per cent of the world oil consumption, but are charged a higher price by fellow Asian producers than the US and Europe. The oil producers’ forum, OPEC, fixed in 2000 a crude oil price band of $22-28 a barrel. The oil price moved within this range until 2004. Last year, however, the price almost doubled. The first task before the Asian consumers and producers is to identify reasons for this aberration. Was it due to a mismatch of demand and supply, a result of speculation or price manipulation by oil MNCs? Only then the Indian Petroleum Minister’s enthusiastic pleadings for long-term supply contracts should be taken seriously. Price is a crucial factor in entering into long-term contracts and hazarding a guess of its future movements is absurd and risky. Surprisingly, a country like India that meets 75 per cent of its oil requirements through imports does not have any energy policy in place, not even a think-tank to guide the government. A politician, no matter how well-meaning, catapulted to power suddenly should not tie India to any long-term bondage. Oil is too serious a subject to play politics with. South Korea is the only country so far to sign a 10-year oil supply contract with Kuwait. A better alternative for the Asian oil consumers is to bargain collectively for assured oil supplies to the subcontinent at reasonable rates. The idea of having a common Asian oil market and joint storage facilities does make sense. The oil producing countries, which are more concerned with demand security than assured supply, are not averse to the idea. Iran’s suggestion for setting up an Asian Bank for Energy Development for backing up energy projects also merits serious consideration. Frequent interaction between Asian oil producers and consumers will certainly yield more win-win ideas and definite results. A good beginning has been made in New Delhi. |
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Media doesn’t hinder PAKISTAN has begun responding to India's initiative to liberalise its visa regime for journalists from across the border. President Gen Pervez Musharraf is reported to have asked its High Commission in New Delhi to give multiple entry visas for Indian journalists who want to visit that country. This is a step in the right direction. There is immense scope for liberalising the visa regimes in both countries which were introduced to minimise people-to-people contact. Now that the emphasis is on strengthening such contacts, a turnaround in the visa policies pursued by both countries is required. Ideally, media practitioners should get multiple-entry, long-term visas without police reporting and bureaucratic delays. News organisations in both countries should be able to post as many correspondents as they require but without any reciprocity condition. Correspondents should be allowed to tour a country for which at present they require town-specific visas every time they move out of the capital. Although the Internet has made restrictions on the free flow of information archaic, the two countries follow a hidebound policy under which newspapers and films are not allowed free flow across the borders. With a view to fostering better understanding of each other, there is need for allowing sale of Pakistani newspapers and journals in India and that of Indian newspapers in Pakistan. It should also be possible for the media organisations in both countries to sell space or collect advertisement revenue from the other side. They will be more careful in their reporting and editorialising if they know they are distributed in the other country. In other words, the rivalry will subside considerably on the principle of free market. Restrictions on viewing Indian news channels should also be done away with. The popularity of Indian entertainment-based channels in that country is a pointer to the potential for growth in viewership of such programmes. Certain Pakistani sitcoms are quite popular in India. Media and the people in both countries will benefit if they are allowed to help in increasing the flow of information across the border. In any case, it is not the media that does harm to the relations between India and Pakistan. Actually, it can help the peace process. |
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When defeat comes, accept it as a signal that your plans are not sound, rebuild those plans, and set sail once more toward your coveted goal. — Napolean Hill
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Needed a cohesive military doctrine A country’s military doctrine is the outcome of a number of factors, which impinge on its national security. Some of these are fixed like its geography and other vary such as the interests of its neighbours or the rest of the world. One’s friends or foes are generally not permanent; only one’s interests are. Sometimes they converge and at other times, they conflict. While most of the internal factors could be assessed being under the realm of a country, there are many external factors, which affect its security and most of these are outside its control. Thus, external environment would need to be factored in. Traditionally, countries used to go on the path to war whenever their national interests were threatened. In the first 25 years in our history, we have had three wars with Pakistan and one with China. Present times have seen more and more non-state actors resorting to take law in their hands and incite conflict and strife. There is no war and yet there is no peace. Thus there are many factors, which would need careful assessment before deciding on the extent of jeopardy of a country’s security. Once these imperatives of security are delineated, the type of military doctrine most suited for the country would emerge. From the national military doctrine would flow the doctrines of the security forces, both for external and internal security. What price one is prepared to pay for one’s security is also an essential factor that will decide on the type of doctrine, since modern weapon systems and technology do not come cheap. Neither can they be developed or supported by a backward state. Should one depend on a security umbrella of a super power? There are nations who spend much less of their Gross National Product on their security by engaging into alliances. To what extent a nation is prepared to subjugate its independence and sovereignty is something that it must decide before formulating its security imperatives. Thus national security must ensure that the national interests are safeguarded and advanced and the military doctrine is an instrument towards this end. India is a peaceloving nation and does not have hegemonistic or extraterritorial ambitions. This is clearly shown by its history. Military ventures are therefore resorted to only as the last option and the philosophy of use of force is mainly defensive in nature. Thus the main objective of the military doctrine would be to safeguard our national interests, through a defensive-offensive strategy and not provide means for projecting power beyond our areas of interests. Having said that, since India is a large country with 1/6th of the world’s population, it’s quite natural that some time in the not too distant future it would become a global power, as it is already a regional power. This would no doubt imply economic strength but in the world order, military strength is equally necessary for the regional status. Thus the shape and size of its military capability would have to consider that aspect too. The area of India’s interest extends at least to cover its energy lifelines. This area will mainly encompass Central Asia, West Asia and South-East Asia. Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Malacca straits and their approaches would need to be safeguarded. It is relevant to mention here that Asia is becoming the playground of all the major powerbrokers. The type of conflict and its nature would also need to be taken into consideration before evolving the doctrine. It is expected that wars in the future are likely to be limited in scope, area and duration. The international community is not likely to accept uncontrolled conflict from nuclear neighbours. The intensity of conflicts, however, will be intense and casualties high. They could well be fought with conventional weapons under the threat of nuclear exchange. Force multipliers and integrated approach by the armed forces over land, sea, air and space would be the key areas of the battle space. Some of the security imperatives are now discussed. These are based on past experience and certain assumptions are made for the future. 1. Our relations with Pakistan and China will remain tenuous. Both respect military strength. Conventional superiority with Pakistan and with deployed Chinese strength must be attained to ensure peace on the borders. Presence of extra-regional powers should be accounted for. 2. Combating terrorism must be given higher priority. Breeding grounds abound on our west and east. There is growing nexus between terrorists, money laundering, drug dealers and gun-runners and threats are more sophisticated. As a form of asymmetric warfare, terrorism will escalate. Maritime terrorism will also raise its ugly head since maritime targets are more vulnerable. 3. Illegal immigration has reached unacceptable limits from Bangladesh and as economic disparities widen, this will grow. 4. Internal security situation is not satisfactory. Uneven development, growing inequalities coupled with lack of good governance have kept naxal movements, Maoist groups and other fringe elements active and alive. North-East continues to be an area of concern. Insurgency is growing despite military measures in the absence of strong political will. Politics tends to divide and create more fissures. 5. Self-reliance must be actively pursued. This is especially important for critical technologies. Research and development must be more focused and result oriented. As technology enters, information warfare and cyber security would need to be carefully addressed. 6. Border management is complex and an area of concern. Technology and manpower must be suitably inducted. 7. Timely and actionable intelligence must be made available in a coordinated manner. Military doctrine would have to be both robust and flexible to meet unforeseen contingencies. It also must be affordable by which, what is implied is that the current level of funding, on a sustained basis, with certain economy measures may suffice. The system of military preparedness must also be such that its capability is continuously maintained at the requisite level. It must a be lean and mean fighting machine, modernised, responsive, operated and exploited by trained manpower with high morale. An objective analysis of our security situation would show that we live in a conflict-prone area in an age of transition. Our history shows that we have excelled in many fields. However, our track record in the field of security has been less than enviable. One would have thought that the nation would pay particular attention to this area after Independence. Regrettably, we have not done so even after 50 years and facing three wars. Thus even today, we do not have a clearly enunciated military doctrine based on a national consensus. What would be the nature of wars likely to be encountered? How should they be fought? What should be the spending on defence? In the absence of such a consensus on the military doctrine, we have not been able to chalk out a coherent and consistent long-term defence strategy. There have been reports of the publication of Army, Navy and Air Force doctrines in the past few months. While it is a good that an individual service thinks about its doctrine, their doctrines can follow and not precede the national military doctrine. National security should be the concern of every citizen of the Republic. There should be a vigorous public debate and decision should lie in the political domain. If we do not do so, it would be futile to think that more and more spending is ensuring security. We would continue in the ironic situation of speculating as to what would be the threshold of Pakistan in any military exchange rather than the world thinking about what is our threshold! We at least must be clear what our threshold is, otherwise we are asking for another attack on
Parliament. |
Honestly speaking HONESTY is the best policy. Is it ? Yes. No. Absolutely not. Views would vary. It used to be but no more so, dismiss the discerning. Some would suggest it is almost impossible to stay honest in this mad bad world. They would quote chapter and verse to prove how and why dishonesty is preferable to honesty. Look at her, him and them. Their rise from rags to riches. Who said honesty pays; it is the honest who pays! Take two: You guys have got it all wrong. Honesty is the best policy. What you’re all taking about is what is good or seems to be good. Don’t confuse the good with the best. That’s how good becomes the enemy of best. Distinguish the best from the rest. Amen. This is a snapshot of a freewheeling discussion in my office during Vigilance Week, observed last year. This time round, it was a bit more than an anaemic annual affair though routinely revisited with the customary oath taking by all and sundry, reading out of messages from the high and mighty, hosting of workshops, seminars, group discussions et al. An elaborate valedictory function marked its finale. Speaker after speaker waxed eloquent on the virtues of following the simple and straight path and living within one’s means. Shastras were quoted, legendary and living icons invoked and examples of the crooked coming to grief cited. An air of optimism hung all around. The audience listened with rapt attention. Platitudes and pontification over, guests and hosts rallied round the tea tables. Views and counterviews on honesty held centrestage. Soon it got as steamy as the tea. Provoked by the petulance of the Gen Next, one of the elders posed: Would you like your child to be dishonest to you? Would you like your parents to be dishonest to you? Would you like your employer to be dishonest to you? Would you like your employees to be dishonest to you? Would you like your friend to be dishonest to you? And by honesty I mean honesty in word, deed and thought. A hushed silence fell in the hall. The message seemed to be sinking in. Then he turned around and said : I have three monkeys who go beyond the threesome of Mahatma Gandhi. When my monkeys see or hear an evil in our midst, they speak up in unison that the evil doer is exposed and the evil extinguished. How about
you? |
AIDS spreading fast in Asia
TWO factors in the Asia Pacific region look more overwhelming than ever before: the rapidly rising rate of HIV infection and the increasing feminisation of the epidemic. With 8.2 million people infected, Asia Pacific has more people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) than any other region in the world except Sub-Saharan Africa. More than half a million people died due to AIDS-related illnesses in 2004 and twice as many people were newly infected during the same period — a disturbing epidemic momentum, particularly in view of the fact that until the late 1980s no country in the region had a major HIV epidemic. What causes graver concern is the uneven rise of infection among women. About one third of PLWHA in the region now are women compared to approximately 20 per cent a decade ago. In fact, the number of women living with HIV grew by 13 per cent between 2001 and 2003. Surveillance systems tell us how the epidemic is spreading. But what they often fail to tell us is that the spread of HIV is closely linked to relationships and power dynamics between individuals and within communities that are grossly unfavourable to women. The low economic and social status of women; the endemic abuse and violence against them; lack of recourse measures, and limited legal and social protection increase their vulnerability to HIV. For many women in the region, sexual intercourse is not a question of choice, but rather a question of survival and duty. A woman’s fertility and her relationship to her husband is often the source of her social identity. As the UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan says, social inequalities put them at risk — unjust, unconscionable and untenable. Dominant social constructs in the region dictate that a married woman has little or no power to negotiate the nature of her sexual relationship with her husband. We also know that increased income alone does not lead to empowerment and autonomy of women in the absence of a legal, ethical and social environment that will allow them to gain better control of their lives. More than half the new infections in the world are among people between 15 and 24 years of age. Among them, women face the highest risk. In addition, younger girls are increasingly being forced into sexual relations and prostitution in an attempt by men to avoid infection, and also from a mistaken belief that intercourse with a virgin can cure them of the virus. Another strong determinant in women’s vulnerability to HIV in Asia Pacific is the oppressive violence against them — in homes and in workplaces. Violence and HIV are mutually reinforcing, both directly through rape and sexual coercion, but also indirectly by predisposing women to risky behaviour later in life. There is also growing evidence that HIV can be a precursor to violence as women face retribution for disclosing their HIV status. In Asia Pacific, the vulnerability of women also arises from unsafe mobility and trafficking. In several parts of the region, women are compelled to move within their countries and across national borders in unsafe conditions and without adequate preparedness. In many cases, such situations lead to their being trafficked. Studies on trafficking and HIV linkages show that one out of three trafficked survivors are HIV+. What is apparent, but unseen, is that unless the interaction between HIV infection, cultural values and the rights and needs of women are recognised, the fundamental changes required to stem the epidemic will be unattainable. Where women are denied dignity and respect, HIV/AIDS spreads. One of Asia’s major challenges (in containing the epidemic) is that a large part of its population lives on the margins of society and its vulnerabilities are not recognised. Such people include mobile workers and their families, rural families clustered in urban slums, sex workers, men having sex with men, injecting drug users and women and children living and working under hazardous or exploitative conditions. HIV is not random in its spread and impact. The bulk of the epidemic burden is on the poor, the marginalised, the youth and women. This is because social inequalities facilitate the spread of the virus and the virus in turn reflects and reinforces these inequalities. Learning from the past two decades shows that HIV is not just a “disease”, but a manifestation of poor human development and deep-rooted socio-economic and cultural factors that we have failed to address over the years. There are many more disconcerting factors that call for urgent responses. Key among them are the intense stigma and discrimination and violation of rights faced by PLWHA, lack of access to treatment, inadequate leadership, lack of integrated responses and shortage of resources. For instance, a study by the Asia Pacific Network for PLWHA showed that 80 per cent of the respondents have experienced discriminatory practices. The rights violations have been from moderate to repressive: from denial of treatment and eviction from jobs to fatal assaults. On the treatment front, as the latest UNAIDS report shows, fewer than 6 per cent of people who require antiretroviral treatment are receiving it. On the resource front, a recent Asian Development Bank study says that in 2001, the countries in the region required more than US$ 1.5 billion to finance a comprehensive response, but had only 200 million. From 2007, as much as US $ 5.1 billion will be required each year. The brighter side of the coin, however, is the fact that it is only 0.2 per cent of the regional gross income. HIV/AIDS is indeed a daunting challenge, but it also offers opportunities. (There are success stories such as Thailand, Cambodia, Uganda and Brazil.) It is not the first epidemic in human history. Neither will it be the last. What sustains such epidemics is poor human development. Needless to say, the answer is good human development practice.
— Women Feature Service |
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Will NDA stay
or fade away? THE BJP-led NDA’s rule came to an end in May 2004 but will the NDA as a political entity survive or fade away ? Since the NDA was formed in 1998 for capturing power by the BJP and some of its ideological allies, the loss of an instrument of governance in New Delhi was bound to have its repercussions. While the BJP had its growth in the Hindi-speaking states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttaranchal, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, its core political support came from the Samata Party, the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal, all of whom had a strong anti-Congress background. The seeds of the NDA were sown in 1996. The story began when the Congress under Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao lost the Lok Sabha poll and the BJP emerged as the single largest party. Mr Vajpayee was invited to form a government. Thus, the first non-Congress government led by a person who never had anything to do with the Congress came into existence, but it lasted merely 13 days as the BJP leaders failed to muster the required support. The BJP had the support of the Samata, the Akali Dal, the Shiv Sena and some Independents, but that was not enough as others were not ready to support a party with a communal tag. The failure of the two United Front governments of H D Deve Gowda and Inder Gujral and sympathy for the BJP after the saffron party was denied its claim to governance created conditions for the emergence of the NDA. The BJP emerged as the largest party in the 1998 general election and then the NDA came into existence as a post-electoral alliance. Within a short time, the NDA started developing cracks as AIADMK leader J Jayalalithaa withdrew support. Then the Kargil war took place and the NDA went into the Lok Sabha elections with a pre -poll alliance and a common manifesto. From 1999 to 2004, the NDA governed the country with occasional hiccups as Trinamool Congress’s leader Mamta Banerjee and some other constituents of the alliance periodically went on a tangent. But the cement of power kept the NDA growing. The role of the RSS, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the Swadeshi Jagran Manch during the six years of NDA rule also created factors which led first to its rise, then downfall. If the BJP returns to the RSS agenda, non-core partners of the NDA may find it difficult to remain with it. The outcome of the assembly elections in Haryana, Jharkhand and Bihar will determine the future prospects of the NDA though its core components (Akali Dal, Shiv Sena and erstwhile Samata Party members of the JD (U) will remain with it. Mr Vajpayee was, and is, the one figure around whom the NDA had gained acceptability in the popular perception and non-core allies felt politically comfortable. At the moment, it appears difficult that he would be able to lead the NDA in the next general election if held after four years. |
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