It is an established political fact that no two socialists can remain in the same camp for long. Mr Nitish Kumar and Defence Minister George Fernandes still have a bit of socialist blood in them to fight clumsy political battles that only socialists can fight. When things get a bit too hot they both use the ploy of resignation to tide over the crisis. Mr Fernandes used it to good effect to blunt the Tehelka-induced attack on him. He was back in the cockpit as the most controversial Raksha Mantri after the storm generated by the Tehelka expose had died down. Mr Fernandes was forced to step down because the attack on his integrity was not rooted in political differences within the Samata Party.

This is not the first time that the red-tape has tied a pioneer in knots. In a television interview last month, Mr Murthy had narrated an incident that took place at a board meeting of Ahmedabad’s Indian Institute of Management. The board which consisted of the virtual who’s who of Indian industry was asked by an Under Secretary to the Government of India how they had decided to write off an old Maruti van worth Rs 8,000!.

Hitherto, farm credit was available at very high rates of interest of 16-17 per cent. Now the government has decided to amend the NABARD Act to pass on funds direct to the district cooperative banks, thus lowering the transaction costs. The government initiative, however, is limited by the fact that farm loans at 9 per cent will be available only for seasonal agricultural operations. The interest rate of 9 per cent, though lower than what it was earlier, is still higher than what is charged for housing loans, which are available now at 7.5-8 per cent.

When in need, a farmer more often turns to an arhtiya than a bank. The arhtiya, though easily accessible, charges a very high rate of interest and exploits the farmer’s crisis situation. The banks need to simplify their procedures, be more farmer-friendly and accessible to make credit available at an affordable cost. Besides, a farmer still depends on the vagaries of the weather. A drought or a flood can lead to a crop failure, which can cripple a farmer. To meet such a situation and ensure that the farmer repays his loans on time, it is imperative to introduce crop insurance. That some states, particularly Punjab and Haryana, are still dithering on this positive step is surprising, if not shocking.

The recommendations confirm our long-standing contention that all is not well with the working of various security agencies operating in J and K; the coordination of their work and cooperation amongst them. The recommendation, calling for a major redeployment of various security forces into separate and perhaps independent sectors and well-defined fields of responsibility, is an admission of the fact that the present system has simply not worked and that mutual incriminations and blame game are not doing much good to our fight against cross-border terrorism. The division and allotment of sectors to various security forces i.e. Army and the central police organisations ( CPOs ) is to be based on their individual capabilities and the security scenario. This would presumably avoid overlapping of responsibility and consequently bring in the missing accountability.

There is nothing new in the special group’s recommendation that counter insurgency operations should be tailored to deal with the terrorists as they sneak into Indian territory rather than to engage them in the hinterland. This, Mr Bhandari, is precisely what the army has been striving to do, all these years, but there are the limitations of terrain, vegetation, weather and the extent of the LoC, etc. No amount of surveillance means, night vision equipment, technology and better intelligence, even if made available, can completely prevent cross border infiltration. At the same time it would be incorrect to assume that all infiltration takes place only from across the LoC. More than one crore Bangladeshis are believed to have crossed over to India. The Nepal border is porous, smuggling and movement from Pakistan across the fully fenced ( lit at night ) international border (IB) is a well-known activity. Over 20,000 Pakistanis with valid visas have gone missing in India.

Admittedly, major cross-border movement takes place in J and K, across the IB (East of Chenab) and the LoC. For the failure to effectively combat insurgency in the hinterland, the blame is often laid at the doors of the army, for its inability to prevent infiltration from across the LoC, as the proceedings of the Unified Command in J and K would reveal. The special group of the ministry has merely echoed this refrain of the CPOs. If it was possible to altogether prevent infiltration, then some of the security forces will have nothing to do in J and K and might as well pack up and leave. It would be difficult to believe that the CPOs and more so the BSF component of it, given their own experience of borders far less problematic than the LoC in J and K, make these observations in the Unified Command, as anything other than a part of the mutual blame-game and a coverup for own failures.

The topography in J and K does not lend itself to a neat division into well-defined sectors for the purpose of counter insurgency operations, unless the entire valley is made the responsibility of the CPOs, which may be more than what they can chew.

Expertise of dealing with counter-insurgency issues and policies comes after gaining experience of these operations from micro to macro level. Else, knowledge remains theoretical and ideas fanciful. No army or any other entity in the world has the range and depth of experience in fighting insurgencies as the Indian Army. The officer cadre of the CPOs ( IPS officers) do not seek practical experience of counter-insurgency operations. Consequently, they are not known to suffer a casualty, except for a DIG in J and K, who, when his camp was raided, was shot in his dressing gown. On the other hand, every second day, an army officer is laying down his life in J and K because he is always up there where action is.

The special group of the Home Ministry has made a recommendation that, even in the event of a warlike situation or hostilities breaking out along the LoC, the army should not be allowed to pull out a Rashtriya Rifles ( RR ) battalion from its counter-insurgency grid in the depth areas, whereas in such a situation the army — nay the nation — will have to draw on every resource of the country. Needless to record that RR battalions are an integral part of the army and maintaining sanctity of the territorial integrity of the country must take precedence over any other task of the army. Why should this special group come up with such an untenable suggestion unless it is acting in an atmosphere of extreme bias against the army and to embarrass it at some point of time in the future? At the same time it recommends that no such restriction be placed for pulling out an army unit to reinforce a town, forming part of CPO’s responsibility.

For successful conduct of counter-insurgency operations, the inescapable need is to have centralised command and control, by one single headquarters with all elements, including intelligence agencies, accountable to it. The concept of centralised command has never been implemented in India and therefore, insurgencies have stayed with us; be it in the Northeast or now in J and K. Out of all the organisations in the country, it is only in the defence services, where accountability is high and the reluctance on the part of the others to operate under their control is understandable. The political leadership fights shy of enforcing the system of centralised command and control.

What had initially started as insurgency in J and K, with 80 per cent indigenous and 20 per cent external ( Pakistan’s ) content, has by now undergone a sea change. It is now 80 per cent cross-border terrorism and 20 per cent insurgency. Terrorists from across the border are obtaining 90 per cent of their support from the locals through terror tactics and 10 per cent is the result of sympathy for the cause. While in the earlier setting it was more political than a military problem, it is increasingly a military task now. Therefore, our approach to tackle this problem has to undergo a change. This new development merely highlights the need for a centralised control of operations of all security elements.

Finally, given the depth and range of experience of Indian army officers in combating insurgency, should there not be an officer from the army, with experience in counter-insurgency operations, from an infantry company to a division (preferably in J and K,) as a special secretary for that state in the Home Ministry? Police officers are often appointed Secretary to the Government of India. Then why not an Army officer, more so when there is a compelling reason to fill this post by such an officer!

As the night ferry weighed anchor at 8 p.m. I spotted two Japanese young ladies squatting on the carpeted floor close to the reception desk huddled together with their haversacks. They appeared bright and energetic. Watching them leaning against the paneling in the foyer, I cautiously approached them and introduced myself offering any help needed. The younger of the two, miss Tori Kagawa, was more articulate and appreciated my gesture. They were spinsters and were teaching oriental studies in Kobe University and were now proceeding from Glasgow to northern Ireland for holidays. They were enchanted by scenic beauty and humility of Irish folks in the emerald Island.

I suggested to them that they should spend their next holidays near Gangotri in Uttarakhand which is known as the cradle of ancient Indian culture. They responded with smiles and nods and confirmed that they had a high appreciation of dramas of Kalidas and Bhavbhooti as well as for the mathematicians of India who invented zero and the astronomers who for the first time perceived our universe in the present form. They had intimate knowledge of Pali and Prakrit and actually recited a couplet in Pali invoking blessings of Lord Budha. They quoted yogic exercises in support of oriental healing practices. Their ready knowledge of indology impressed me as well as to the Chief Executive of Govan shipyard who invited them to feel free to use the saloon lounge.

He too confirmed my views that on some future day, they should explore the higher northern reaches of the Ganges valley where they could find the real fertile ground for their ethos. The ladies again smiled but remained uncommitted and mum.

The teachers were scheduled to stay in the hostel of Queens University in Belfast. Just before disembarking I again asked Miss Kagawa to reveal why despite their profound regard for Indian heritage they were reluctant to come to India. This time she laughed heartily and spoke out. “Three years ago we both stayed in an ashram outside Hardwar. People came from all sides and listened to prayers and bhajans. However, every morning villagers and even inmates of ashram huts cleared their throats with shrieking sounds and spitting loudly in a routine ritual lasting a number of minutes. This was widespread and appeared repulsive. Since then we decided to avoid staying in India but continued admiring India through books and media.” I was deeply dismayed.

Next day I also met Dr E. Rebeck, Chairman and Managing Director of Harland & Wolff. The chairman was much amused and very wisely invited the Japanese ladies as well as the Vice-Chancellor of Queens University for evening tea. I was also there.

Though the exact mechanism of these systems is not yet perfectly understood, research suggests that they are a manifestation of intense vortices on a small scale. These vortices generate strong convective currents which lift the moisture-laden air rapidly to form cumulonimbus clouds, which shed their water load with ferocity.

The north-westward moving monsoon systems (low pressure area/cyclonic circulation) after recurving over Rajasthan/ north-west Madhya Pradesh and passing over Himachal Pradesh, are found to cause these cloudbursts. The topography of the state enhances the devastation caused by cloudbursts as the water flowing down the steep slopes brings debris, boulders and uprooted trees with great velocity damaging any structure which comes in the way, leading to a significant loss of life and property. Their interaction with eastward moving troughs in upper air westerlies which some times penetrate the Indian latitudes during the south-west monsoon season are found to greatly enhance the occurrences of cloudbursts over HP.

A recent study conducted by the Indian Meteorological Department has revealed that a total of 36 cloudbursts took place in Himachal from 1990 to 2001 — about three per year with a maximum of seven in year 2000 and none in year 1996. Out of the 36 cloudbursts, 15 were reported in Kulu, six in Shimla, four in Kinnaur, three in Mandi, two each in Kangra and Chamba, and one each in Solan, Sirmaur, Lahaul and Spiti and Hamirpur districts. This indicates that Kulu, Shimla, Kinnaur and Mandi districts are more prone to cloudbursts than other areas.

Paradoxically, the frequency of flash floods has been increasing even though the overall precipitation in the state has been decreasing. The snow is becoming increasingly scarce. Even places like Dharamsala hardly receives around 70 inches of rainfall these days as against about 130 inches five decades back.

The reasons are not far to find. The indiscriminate and large-scale deforestation and haphazard urbanisation of the hills are the main factors responsible for the present situation. Vast tracts of the once lush green hills have been transformed into barren land due to the reckless felling of trees making them extremely prone to erosion.

Further, not only the towns but also villages are turning into concrete jungles because of rapid urbanisation. For instance about 500 hotels have come in about five square kilometre area in the tourist town of Manali. In such a situation even a drizzle is enough to cause the water level to rise in the river Beas.

With the hills shorn of the green cover, the run off is much more despite low precipitation. The construction of big hydel projects and roads and large scale mining, which generate million of tonnes of debris, are the man-made factor that increase the magnitude of the calamity.

The debris, which is carelessly dumped on the hill slopes, eventually finds its way into nullahs and rivers, raising their bed level. Their carrying capacity is reduced and during heavy rain they often change their course, causing widespread destruction. It is not surprising that most of the damage is caused in the Sutlej and Beas basin where most of the projects are coming up.

Although an environment impact assessment is carried out for every project and environment management plans are duly prepared but they are implemented only on paper. Crores are being spent on catchment area treatment plans, but not much is visible on the ground. Similarly, sites are duly designated for dumping the debris. But contractors, in a bid to save money on its carriage, conveniently throw it on the slopes in connivance with the supervisory staff.

Recently the government has decided to charge the projects for the loss of environmental value due to the diversion of forest land at the rate of Rs 8 lakh per hectare for areas with tree density in excess of 10 per cent. This would certainly make available in future more funds for the rehabilitation of catchment areas. What about the project already under construction?

The environment impact assessment statement is prepared by the Science and Technology Department. The Forest Department, which is mainly concerned with the rehabilitation of the catchment areas, is not associated with it at all.

The tendency of the people to settle down along the banks makes things worse as during flash floods the water loaded with debris moves down at a terrific speed, destroying everything which comes in the way. The victims are mostly migrant labourers who live in make-shift hutments along the rivers and nullahs on which projects are set up. Laxity on the part of the Labour Department to enforce the law and ensure that the contractors properly maintain the record of the manpower deployed adds to the problem. Every time an incident of this kind takes place there is a dispute over the death toll and the accurate figure is never known.

Over the past 15 years some 1,000 people have been killed in flash floods. The maximum loss of life and property has been recorded in hydel projects. The 1,500 MW Nathpa Jhakri Project suffered widespread damage on as many as three occasion. In 1993 when the work has just started a huge landslide blocked the Sutlej river, creating a big lake at the dam site.

As the load of precipitation increases, the updraft is no longer able to support it, and it begins to fall. As it falls, the precipitation drags along some of the adjacent air, so that in the mature stage, a downdraft forms within the cloud. It is during this stage that heavy rain commences at the surface. Unsaturated air from outside the cloud may be drawn into the downdraft, causing some of the rain to evaporate. This cools the downdraft, thereby increasing the density of its air and further adding to its downward motion.