Tuesday, January 23, 2001,
Chandigarh, India






E D I T O R I A L   P A G E


EDITORIALS

For the sake of Samjhauta
I
N an atmosphere of unending bitterness between India and Pakistan, there is a welcome development. The two countries have agreed not only to continue the operation of the biweekly train service, Samjhauta Express, for another three years but also to upgrade the facilities available in it.

Saudi Arabia as friend
I
N the popular mind Saudi Arabia is associated with the proliferation of madarsas in India. After the USA declared Osama Bin Laden as the country’s enemy number one, the international terrorist’s Saudi nationality too attracted unusual attention. 

It was a Gloria’s day 
O
NCE a very popular actor, then a President elected in a landslide but today a man disowned by all sections of society. This sums up, cryptically and even a bit cruelly, the brief foray of Mr Joseph Estrada into politics in the Philippines.


EARLIER ARTICLES

Ayodhya — blowing cold
January 22
, 2001
PANGS OF THE PARTITION
January 21
, 2001
It pays to act tough
January 20
, 2001
MP as a tenure job
January 19
, 2001
An avoidable controversy 
January 18, 2001
Panchayat polls in J&K
January 17, 2001
Signals from Maghi mela
January 16, 2001
Lynching labour force
January 15, 2001
The Clinton Years
January 14
, 2001
The passport tangle
January 13
, 2001
Sugar melts in PDS
January 12
, 2001
Maruti in third gear
January 11
, 2001
THE TRIBUNE SPECIALS
50 YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE

TERCENTENARY CELEBRATIONS
 
OPINION

WTO & ITS CONSEQUENCES
The agrarian crisis in Punjab
by Amarinder Singh
T
HE General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs was established in 1947 by 23 countries, India being one of the founding members. This was a multilateral treaty which proscribed rules for international trade. At the time the WTO came into being, GATT had 117 signatory countries and, over the years, had held eight rounds of negotiations. 

MIDDLE

The price
by J. L. Gupta
I
T was a pleasant evening. There was a good nip in the air. I had gone for a walk. To the lake. In the hope of breathing some fresh air. But nature played the damp squib. A sudden downpour. Literally cats and dogs. I tried to avail of the protection of a tree. A young man was already there. He immediately moved to make room for me. Almost instinctively.

ANALYSES

Some thoughts for the year 2001
by Mulk Raj Anand
O
N reaching the age of 95, I feel constrained not to make prophesies of even the goings-on in our own country because the past has proved all hopes to become fears. World history has shown that the prophesies of H.G. Wells and Arnold Toynbee were wish fulfilments in spite of their modest hopes.

Jeers drown out cheers for Bush
by Julian Borger and Martin Kettle in Washington
P
RESIDENT George W. Bush’s inauguration reflected the controversial manner of his election. The procession along Pennsylvania Avenue on Saturday fell well short of being triumphant, and on many occasions during its slow advance through the drizzle, the jeers drowned out the cheers.

TRENDS AND POINTERS

‘Mild’ cigarettes still pack nicotine punch
S
MOKERS who choose to puff on “light” or “ultraligh” cigarettes may not be getting the break from tar and nicotine they’ve been promised, researchers report. Study results show that the amount of tar and nicotine inhaled by smokers depends on the number and strength of their puffs and therefore varies tremendously among smokers—even with cigarettes touted as being low in tar or nicotine.


SPIRITUAL NUGGETS



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For the sake of Samjhauta

IN an atmosphere of unending bitterness between India and Pakistan, there is a welcome development. The two countries have agreed not only to continue the operation of the biweekly train service, Samjhauta Express, for another three years but also to upgrade the facilities available in it. It will now have sleeper and economy class travel arrangements. Though it covers a distance of hardly 3 km between Attari and Wagah, perhaps the shortest route for any train in the world, this service has its own significance. There is the Lahore bus service also, but it can be no substitute for a train service, which continues to be the cheapest and most comfortable mode of transport, affordable by the masses. It ensures people-to-people contact, which must be strengthened by all means in the interest of peace in the subcontinent. It shows the level of understanding of the complex situation of the officials who signed the crucial agreement. They did not get deterred by the report that the bus commuting between New Delhi and Lahore was being used by fewer travellers in the wake of the Red Fort shootout. This is natural in the wake of such incidents. However, such problems are temporary in nature and disappear in the course of time.

Any arrangement that helps the people on both sides to meet each other frequently and share their joys and sorrows deserves to be promoted by all means. It may shrink the following of militant organisations, rendering them ineffective. Modes of travel serve the purpose of clearing the mist, which thickens when ordinary people have fewer opportunities to come in contact with one another. Misunderstandings of any kind create a climate of hatred leading to armed conflicts, first in the minds of the people and then on the battlefield. This retards the economic growth of the nations involved. In the case of India and Pakistan, there can be no better way of replacing enmity with friendliness than allowing the people to talk to each other and sort out differences on their own. This will dilute the role of the ruling class especially in Pakistan, which is, in fact, needed under the circumstances. India can contribute to strengthening the people-to-people link by taking two other measures. It should endeavour to persuade Pakistan to allow people to travel in their own vehicles in both countries, of course, after completing the necessary formalities. This facility is today available on a selective basis, which is discouraging. The other measure India can think of to help the process of establishing peace is easing the issue of visas to those willing to travel to Pakistan. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had taken such a step when he was the External Affairs Minister during the Janata regime in 1977. He is the best person to understand its true import. It is not necessary to wait for Pakistan’s response. If the rulers there refuse to behave on the expected lines that is their problem. India’s unilateral ceasefire decision forced Pakistan to respond positively though not in an equal measure. A decision on easing travel between the two countries by India will either put pressure on the other side to come to terms or further expose it in the comity of nations.
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Saudi Arabia as friend

IN the popular mind Saudi Arabia is associated with the proliferation of madarsas in India. After the USA declared Osama Bin Laden as the country’s enemy number one, the international terrorist’s Saudi nationality too attracted unusual attention. Since the spread of the Wahabi school of Islam is treated as the flip side of Islamic fundamentalism, Saudi Arabia inevitably gets a bad press on this count as well. These and other factors may have been behind India’s lukewarm diplomatic relations with the desert kingdom. Therefore, the importance of Mr Jaswant Singh’s three-day visit should be evaluated in the context of post-Independence indifference to building diplomatic bridges with Saudi Arabia. When Jawaharlal Nehru visited the kingdom in 1956 it was still one of the impoverished nations dotting the West Asian landscape. Nehru had to address a public meeting in a football field. But the oil boom has changed the profile of the whole of West Asia. From being beggars the Arabs now control the levers of the oil-driven global economy. Mr Jaswant Singh addressed leaders of the trade and industry inside a technological marvel which houses the country’s chamber of commerce and industry. The oil boom was the primary reason why the USA bullied the Saudi rulers into providing its troops permanent parking space in the sprawling desert as self-appointed peacekeepers. Since India too is on the road to becoming a regional economic power, its long-term interests would obviously be better served by improving relations not only with Saudi Arabia, but other West Asian countries as well. Mr Jaswant Singh’s visit should also be seen as an attempt by India to start looking beyond the regional frame, as an essential first step to playing a bigger role in the evolving global village. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s visit to Vietnam and Indonesia was part of the new policy of reaching out to nations, big or small, beyond the region.

There are a number of other factors, apart from the likely economic benefit through improved diplomatic ties, which too should not be ignored while evaluating the importance of the Indian External Affairs Minister’s visit to Saudi Arabia. India as the second largest Muslim country in the world had thus far not taken the kind of interest it should have in forging bonds of friendship with the Arabs, who tend to get influenced by Pakistan’s anti-India rhetoric. Improved bilateral ties with the big and small Muslim countries would help India present its side of the case more effectively than it has at Islamic conclaves dominated by Pakistan. During his visit Mr Jaswant Singh also discussed joint initiatives for combating global terrorism and drug trafficking. Evolving an effective mechanism for ensuring regional energy security too was discussed by the two sides. The visit also helped remove misgivings about India’s stand on the Palestinian issue. Hopefully, in due course, India would take up the issue of the madarsas having become recruitment and training centres for implementing Islamabad’s agenda of causing internal strife. Saudi Arabia has already moved away from supporting Bin Laden and has even frozen its relationship with Afghanistan. After the military coup even Pakistan has lost its preeminent position in the Saudi kingdom. It wants to shed the image of the patron-in-chief of Islamic terrorism and would rather like to be recognised as an evolving centre of an information technology-driven economy. India can indeed play a major role in making the kingdom step into the exciting new world without the baggage of bigotry and religious orthodoxy. Mr Jaswant Singh’s visit should be seen as an attempt to break the ice. A lot more genuine diplomatic effort will be needed for imparting the all important warmth of cooperation and trust to Indo-Saudi relations.
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It was a Gloria’s day 

ONCE a very popular actor, then a President elected in a landslide but today a man disowned by all sections of society. This sums up, cryptically and even a bit cruelly, the brief foray of Mr Joseph Estrada into politics in the Philippines. He also faces a distinct chance of prosecution on corruption charges. His ignominious exit came on Saturday after the country’s Supreme Court declared the post of President vacant, a humiliating way of disqualifying him. It was extraordinary but then everything about this man has been extraordinary. Just before his election some three years ago he boasted, yes boasted, that he had slept with hundreds of women. His opponent tried to use this “confession” to influence the voters away from him but it backfired so badly that Mr Estrada won by the widest margin in the country’s history. As he left, the political establishment has deserted him; his nominated Ministers quit and his army chief denounced him in public and joined people demanding his ejection. That came 24 hours before the court action. His departure became unstoppable. Since the trauma of his impeachment began a few months ago, he had scored only one legislative victory. That too came last week when his supporters in the Senate defeated by the narrowest margin of one vote — 11 to 10 — a resolution asking the former President to supply his bank accounts. Actually that proved to be his nemesis. It sent out a clear signal that the Senate would not vote him out and he would stay put. The defence forces which had kept out of the raging controversy decided to step in to head off violent protests by people. Thousands upon thousands of Filipinos poured into the streets almost every day calling for his resignation. Among all East Asians, the Filipinos are most high-strung and public-spirited, very much like Bangladeshis in this subcontinent. Look at their record! Mr Estrada is the second President to be driven out by protestors. In 1986, Ferdinand and Emelda Marcos fled the country when agitating people stormed the Malacanang Palace. Even those analysts, who are proud of this tradition of public vigilance, are alarmed at the repetition, fearing that taking to the streets may immobilise future governments, if not unsettle them.

The new President, Mrs Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, will complete the remaining years of Mr Estrada’s term. This is the constitutional provision. In fact, the Philippines has copied the US Constitution like the Vice-President assuming power if the elected President is dead or leaves office for whatever reason and serious presidential offences being scrutinised by the two Houses of legislature before and for impeachment. So Vice-President Arroyo (she was independently elected and not as the running mate of Mr Estrada) takes over with mass adulation. She comes from an illustrious political family; her father Mr Macapagal is a former President and she is a college mate of a man called Bill Clinton. She is as different from Mr Estrada as cheese is from chalk. She is a renowned economist and a short (slightly more than 5 ft) lady with a tendency to be an introvert. She enjoys the solid support of Mrs Corazon Aquino, a former President and much respected political elder. Then there is the legacy of her father and another former President Fidel Ramos. The powerful Roman Catholic church, headed by Cardinal Sin, is very supportive as is the army. What crime did Mr Estrada commit to arouse the ire of the entire nation? Newspapers have linked it to his insatiable hunger for money. That is a superficial reading. What sank him was his flippancy and contempt for others. He was slowly antagonising the people and when the charge of demanding and taking money from illegal gamblers became public, it acted as the catalytic agent to set the process of his eventual removal. Power and arrogance — they do not go together. Any takers? 
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WTO & ITS CONSEQUENCES
The agrarian crisis in Punjab
by Amarinder Singh

THE General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) was established in 1947 by 23 countries, India being one of the founding members. This was a multilateral treaty which proscribed rules for international trade. At the time the WTO came into being, GATT had 117 signatory countries and, over the years, had held eight rounds of negotiations. The eighth round termed the Uruguay round, which included agricultural trade, began in September, 1986, at Punta del Este in Uruguay.

GATT tapered into what is today known as the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and India became a signatory to it in 1994 under the Narasimha Rao government. All subsequent governments, including the present one of Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, have lent it their full support.

The first thing to understand is that its implementation starts on April 1, 2002, and its full impact on agriculture under the WTO regime will be realised on January 1, 2005, 48 months from now.

The question being discussed in Punjab today is related to the impact it will have on the agricultural economy of the state.

Punjab has always been the granary of India. Even this year our contribution to the national food pool is 64% wheat and 42% rice. The development of irrigation systems in other parts of the country has, however, resulted in enhanced food production in other states. UP, for instance, produces 2.5 times the paddy that Punjab produces because of irrigation facilities developed in the Gangetic plains. As a consequence, the takers for Punjab grain will be fewer as the years pass. The today’s extraordinary situation, where India is carrying reserve stocks of 42 million tonnes valued at Rs 28,000 crore, is a result not only of successive good monsoons over a number of years but also because of enhanced irrigation facilities all over the country. India is progressively becoming a buyers market with regard to agricultural produce. Where then should Punjab go?

To begin with, here is a brief account of our agriculture. Punjab has 10.5 million acres of cultivable land — 93% is irrigated — and its cropping intensity is 210%. The poor economic situation has led to a cropping pattern with grain following grain affecting soil nutrition, which can best be explained by the fact that at the start of the Green Revolution in the late sixties one unit of fertiliser produced one unit of wheat or rice, whereas today 1.3 units are required to produce the same quantity. Punjab’s soil is, therefore, getting tired; a micronutrient imbalance is taking place and the texture deteriorating.

The intensity of cropping has also resulted in an excessive drain on its sub-soil water. This has now reached critical proportions. The 10.5 million acres of cultivable land require five acre feet of water for a paddy/wheat rotation by the conventional flood irrigation method, and we, therefore, require 52 million acre feet (MAF) for the state. Today Punjab has 12.5 MAF of water available from its rivers, and pumps over 14 MAF sub-soil water through 17 lakh tubewells. The end result is that it is removing more sub-soil water than is being replenished, and as a consequence part of the state is facing a dramatic lowering of the water-table while its southern districts are becoming waterlogged due to a peculiar underground geological problem. High value crops would use a more intensive type of irrigation that requires less water.

Over 61% or 130 lakh people of the state live off agriculture. Of this figure, 96 lakh own the land they live off and 33 lakh are landless agricultural workers. Of the total land holdings, contrary to popular belief, 89% own less than 7 acres of land and 52% less than 2.5 acres. As per the Punjab Agricultural University findings, the surplus earning of these 52% farmers is Rs 15,000 annually in the current cropping pattern. Considering that Punjab’s minimum wage is Rs 24,000 annually, this means that 42.9 lakh owners plus 33 lakh wage earners, a total of 82.9 lakh or 64% of rural Punjab, lives below the minimum wage.

Keeping these factors in mind, which were visible 15 years ago, Dr S.S. Johal, at that time Vice-Chancellor of Punjabi University and one of India’s leading agricultural economists, produced a report in 1985 highlighting this developing situation and suggesting a gradual change in the cropping pattern of the state to increase the earning capacity of the farmers.

This report envisaged a change in the pattern of around 25% of each holding to include oilseeds, dairying, horticulture, vegetable farming, etc. To ensure the success of this change in the cropping pattern, it called for the establishing agro-industrial units that would act as consumption and price support agencies. Without a large and established market, this proposed change would not succeed. This is exactly what the WTO provides.

We now come to the WTO. At first let us see it in the light of the negative publicity given to it, in the form of eight questions and answers to illustrate where the truth lies:

1. Will the subsidies being given to farmers be reduced? No, subsidies will not be reduced. There is no obligation on India under GATT or the WTO to remove or reduce subsidies given to Indian agriculture. This is because the total aggregate measures of support to farmers — subsidies on fertilisers, electricity, seeds, pesticides and the cost of credit available for all crops, as well as the support provided through the minimum support price (MSP) mechanism — is well below the ceiling prescribed by the agreement. An obligation to reduce subsidies applies only to developing countries provided the subsidy exceeds 10% of the value of the total agricultural produce. In the case of India, the value of agricultural support is below zero.

2. Will the public distribution system (PDS) or public procurement operations be affected? Neither the PDS nor the food procurement operations will be affected. PDS in India is not a subsidy to the farmer or the producer but a subsidy for the urban and rural poor to meet their food requirements. This is clearly enunciated in the agreement.

3. Does market access have to be given for agricultural products from abroad, thereby ruining the Indian farmer?

a. No. India has neither provided nor are we required to provide the minimum market access opportunities till our balance of payment situation becomes positive. The minimum market access opportunities have to be established by those countries which maintain quantitative restrictions for reasons inconsistent with the agreement. Even these countries are not required to make imports. What they have to do is to establish low Customs duties for 3 to 5 per cent of their consumption.

b. The level of protective tariffs which India can impose when its balance of payment situation improves and it required to provide minimum market access, will be 100% on primary products, 150% on processed foods and 300% on edible oils.

4. Will seeds have to be patented? No. There is no obligation to patent seeds or plant materials. Under the sui generis form of protection which India has adopted, plant breeders’ rights, farmers’ privileges and researchers’ privileges will be fully safeguarded.

5. Will farmers be able to sell seeds at all? Yes. There is no restriction on farmers selling or exchanging their seeds. The only restriction will be that a farmer cannot convert himself into a seed producer to sell seeds without the consent of the inventor.

6. Will the farmer be able to sow the seeds grown by him without the approval of the plant-breeders who are now very often multinational companies? There is no restriction on the right of the farmers to save seeds for their own future planting and there is no obligation on us to permit any multinational to enter the Indian market.

7. Does the agreement interfere in any way with India’s ability to follow its own agricultural policies and programmes? No. All our development schemes are exempt from the preview of disciplines in the agreement on agriculture. It will in no manner affect India’s freedom and flexibility to follow its own agricultural policies and programmes.

8. How will the agreement help in boosting India’s agricultural export? The Uruguay Round has created excellent opportunities for the export of Indian agricultural products. This is because international trade in agriculture so far was distorted by heavy subsidies given by developed industrial countries. Under the agreement those countries are committed to decrease their subsidies and to provide increased access to their markets. The decrease of subsidies in those countries will also raise the price of their agricultural products. India, therefore, will benefit both from increased access and from the higher prices that its produce will fetch in those markets.

India can at any stage implement protective tariffs or anti-dumping provisions to protect our farmer once the WTO regime comes into force. The recent paddy procurement mess was not due to the WTO regime but because of the lack of intervention by Punjab along with the Union Government not only to ensure timely intervention in the market by the FCI but also for the maintenance of the MSP. If today the market is getting flooded with imported agro-products the fault does not lie with the WTO regime, which is not yet in force, but with the Union Government which permits imports under the Open General Licence (OGL) without imposing protective Customs duties.

The conversion of 25% of Punjab’s cultivable land to high value crops, as recommended by the Johl Committee, would require the introduction of the agro-industry to support each crop by becoming a consumption and price support agency. The WTO in turn would provide access to the international market. Without this market, crop diversification cannot succeed.

What needs to be understood is that the traditional wheat/paddy rotation cannot give an increased living margin to our farmers. It is not market access under the WTO that will prevent this. It is the maintenance of parity between the producer and the consumer that is needed. No matter how much the government subsidises the consumer price or increases the MSP, the farmer can never get much more. The key lies in diversification in high value crops.

If, despite these glaring facts, the Akalis still believe that the WTO is not in the interest of the Punjab farmer, then a provision exists for any country to opt out of the agreement at any time. All that is required is for India to write to the WTO Secretariat at Geneva, giving six months notice and it can quit.

— The writer is the Punjab Congress unit’s chief.
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The price
by J. L. Gupta

IT was a pleasant evening. There was a good nip in the air. I had gone for a walk. To the lake. In the hope of breathing some fresh air. But nature played the damp squib. A sudden downpour. Literally cats and dogs. I tried to avail of the protection of a tree. A young man was already there. He immediately moved to make room for me. Almost instinctively. Probably out of sheer regard for age. A very fine gesture. The act was unusual. But I felt happy.

Soon we were talking. I discovered that he was studying at one of the local colleges. His family is in Bihar. His father is the Vice-Chancellor of a university in the state. I was curious and asked — “Why have you come all the way from the famous land of ‘Patliputra’ to such a far off place? That too for no specialisation but only graduation?”

The answer was simple. In my part of the country, no student studies. No teacher teaches. If there be someone who is wanting and willing, he is not allowed. And you have to be declared ‘pass’ at the end of the term without even taking the examination. I could have taken admission in any college. Sat at home. Gradually, I would have graduated.

It was obvious that the young man wanted to study. He had thus left the cozy comfort of his home and hearth. But why is the situation so bad?

I have been to school. But that was many decades back. It has undoubtedly turned out many fine young men. But me too. Irrespective of that, what I clearly recall is that the teachers and the taught were always busy. Everyone had a lot to do. Plenty was happening. All the time. From the morning prayer to the classrooms and the playfield. There were the debates, declamations and dramas. At regular intervals. There was a conscious and continuous effort to impart and inculcate values. To educate. To ensure an all round development of the individual’s personality. To produce good citizens . Not mere job seekers . All this at virtually no cost.

Today, the schools demand very heavy fees. In tens of thousands. At the beginning of the session, even for the tiny toddlers. Followed by periodic demands, on every possible pretext. Admission. Building. Computer. Library. Science. Laboratory. Sports. And the like. The children carry backbreaking burden of books. In certain places, the children are treated to air-conditioned comfort. Yet the present day curriculum in the schools allows no creative activity. No exposure to the cold and heat of everyday life.

In fact, the teachers have no time for the taught. They are mostly busy with tuitions, Or with agitations. For higher pay scales. For more holidays. Despite the weekends. The summer and autumn breaks. The days of birth and martyrdom. Holidays on all the holy days. The innumerable religious festivals. The “preparatory” holidays. Why this change in attitude?

Education has been commercialised. Money is the “mantra” everywhere. Who is to blame?

No one in particular. There is a general devaluation of values. An acute crisis of character. Men and women are running a mad race for material gains. Yearning for more and more money. Not morals. And as has been said: “When the wood is crooked, the furniture cannot be straight”. In the prevailing environment, the teachers cannot remain isolated. They cannot constitute an island. They are necessarily suffering from the symptoms that ail the whole human society. Everywhere.

One can recall the wise words of wit — “Those who can — do. Those who cannot do anything — teach. Those who cannot teach become Deans.” Absolutely apt! For the present day situation. And someone could have easily added — Today “education is the inculcation of the incomprehensible into the ignorant by the incompetent.” Very often under the able guidance of the illiterate . The mighty Minister.

How true! We call the present era— ‘Kal-yug viz the black period.’ Obviously, not without good reason. In this era, the needs have predictably changed. Today, we do not seem to have any place for men of learning or letters in the schools, colleges and universities. Economy means saving on education . Spending on regulation. We are more for government . Less for governance.

All of us are looking for the quick buck . Inevitably, we have to pay the price. And we are paying . The real hard way.
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Some thoughts for the year 2001
by Mulk Raj Anand

ON reaching the age of 95, I feel constrained not to make prophesies of even the goings-on in our own country because the past has proved all hopes to become fears. World history has shown that the prophesies of H.G. Wells and Arnold Toynbee were wish fulfilments in spite of their modest hopes. It seems likely, however, that there may not be a world conflict on the scale of the previous two World Wars. Because, American people, whose government has the most highly armed storehouse of lethal weapons, do not wish to invite even one atom or hydrogen bomb, which can destroy half their land. In East Asia, no power has decisive weapons. And not many causes for quarrels.

In our sub-continent there seems to be danger from the continued Pakistan ambition to occupy Kashmir. And the long continued tension with three wars in between do not inspire hope of Islamic fundamentalism, leading to some group stealing a bomb from Iran, or Saudi Arabia. And even Pakistan has achieved nuclear power. But the Indian state is equally highly armed which is a serious warning, except to some unbridled Islamic terrorist group.

If we presume that there will be even going on, it is possible to hope that social and economic developments in both India and Pakistan may continue and even trade may become possible. The only dangers seem to be from the relatively unknown strength of Muslim fundamentalist youths who are important elements in Arabia, Sudan, Egypt and even in Pakistan where some of them are known to have joined reckless invaders into Kashmir.

If a situation is not seriously confronting us with danger in Kashmir, it may be possible for some genuine Gandhian to emerge who may offer a solution to the Kashmir problem.

All the same, it is quite possible to argue that Pakistan with its intense poverty, disruptions and despair, after the breakdown of democracy, is in no position to launch an armed struggle from Islamabad even though that country is not a democracy but an autocracy.

There is hope, however, in the declaration of General Musharraf that he would like to bring about in Pakistan a Mustafa Kamal kind of set-up which made Turkey into a democratic state after the abolition of the Caliphet.

I believe, however, that, General Musharraf came to power with a coup and whatever the situation then, he has seen that there is no possibility of Pakistan being able to win a war of occupation of Kashmir.

The return of Nawaz Sharif or of Benazir Bhutto as Prime Minister is unlikely. And there seems to be no important leadership which can replace the army. And no army set-up can win the approval in the overall influential USA.

From all accounts which have been available, Pakistan’s economic recovery and political stability are both subject to American goodwill. And from the recent statements from America, the USA is not likely to permit adventures by any state where it has influence to wage war.

The big six states of the world are also not likely to get involved in national disputes.

The tension between China and Taiwan presents dangers which, however, America’s cautionary attitudes will dispel as the USA will not take on a conflict in the Far-east.

Altogether, therefore, the world situation seems to offer hopes of peace, somewhat uneasy, but perhaps compelled from within the dangers forseen by most states in Asia and the West.

The continued Palestine Arab near-war situation, however, does not threaten to go out of hand. But, there can be no major crisis as the USA is involved in the efforts to promote adjustments.

It is possible that my estimate of the world situation is wish fulfilment. I will accept the charge of white livered humanitarianism because it is necessary for all intelligentsia to promote peace and understanding specially by those of us who have survived the two World Wars.
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Jeers drown out cheers for Bush
by Julian Borger and Martin Kettle in Washington

PRESIDENT George W. Bush’s inauguration reflected the controversial manner of his election. The procession along Pennsylvania Avenue on Saturday fell well short of being triumphant, and on many occasions during its slow advance through the drizzle, the jeers drowned out the cheers.

There was no agreement on Sunday on just how many demonstrators had braved the weather, but it was without question the biggest anti-inaugural demonstration since 1973, when 20,000 turned out to rain on Richard Nixon’s parade and protest against the Vietnam war.

“The level of people on the streets shows that people are really upset about lack of democratic process,” said Liz Butler of the Justice Action Movement, the coordinating committee for the protests. “They took it to the streets. We saw tens of thousands. We saw far more protesting (against) Bush than supporting him.”

This year, in the wake of turbulent demonstrations in Seattle, Washington and Philadelphia, security was tighter than ever. Ten thousand policemen, drawn from the district of Columbia and the surrounding states, were deployed along Pennsylvania Avenue and its tributaries, manning checkpoints to search bags and frisk demonstrators for weapons.

In some of the special areas set aside for the protests, the police outnumbered the demonstrators. However, they toned down their appearance to reflect the dignity of the occasion, mostly donning dress uniforms rather than the riot gear which became a familiar feature of street confrontations in 2000.

The dominant source of discontent on Saturday was the legitimacy of Mr Bush’s election, sealed only by Supreme Court intervention in the disputed Florida result.

The protesters carried home-made banners scrawled with epithets including: “His Fraudulency”, “Bush Stole It”, “Hail to the Thief”, “Bush’s Agenda Lost”, “The Grinch Who Stole Election Day” and “Dubya is Illegitimable”, the last a reference to the new President’s much-lampooned trouble with complex words.

At one point, as the President’s armoured limousine passed 12th Street, and ahead of a densely packed group of demonstrators, his section of the motorcade came to a five-minute halt. The pause was supposedly initiated for “security reasons”.

— The Guardian
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Mild’ cigarettes still pack nicotine punch

SMOKERS who choose to puff on “light” or “ultraligh” cigarettes may not be getting the break from tar and nicotine they’ve been promised, researchers report.

Study results show that the amount of tar and nicotine inhaled by smokers depends on the number and strength of their puffs and therefore varies tremendously among smokers—even with cigarettes touted as being low in tar or nicotine.

In fact, people who smoke" l light” or “mild” cigarettes inhale up to eight times as much tar and nicotine as printed on the label. People who smoked brands listing higher levels of nicotine inhaled about 1.5 times as much of these chemicals, report researchers in the January 17 issue of the Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

“The conclusion has to be that the tar and nicotine ratings on cigarette packets are not worth the paper they are written on,’’ said Dr. Martin J. Jarvis, from University College London, UK, in a prepared statement. “Not only are they misleading to consumers, but machine-measured ratings are also downright dangerous as they encourage ‘health-conscious’ smokers to switch to ‘light’ brands rather than quit.”

In the study, Jarvis and colleagues interviewed more than 2,000 adult smokers and measured levels of cotinine — a byproduct of nicotine — in their saliva. The findings appear to confirm several past studies — some conducted using smoking machines — that have suggested that the level of tar and nicotine ingested by smokers is indeed higher than that listed on the label.

The researchers explain that the information printed on cigarette labels is based on test results from such machines, which simulate smoking. But people tend to take stronger puffs than machines. Low-nicotine brands have special filters, which dilute the smoke during the machine simulation by as much as 83%. However, the filters do not appear to have the same effect when humans smoke cigarettes.

“Smokers can achieve essentially whatever delivery they desire...through taking larger and more frequent puffs and through manoeuvres such as blocking ventilation holes with lips or fingers,” the report indicates.

The authors suggest that socioeconomic and genetic factors might shape a person’s preference for a certain nicotine level. In fact, people who smoked low-nicotine brands tended to be older, female and better educated. They also smoked fewer cigarettes each day, the researchers add. (Reuters Health)

Shovel that snow safely!

While Frosty the snowman may have been ``a jolly, happy soul’’ when the flakes began to fly, those who have to shovel that snow are anything but happy about it.

And if they don’t shovel snow correctly, they may end up with shoulder problems, backaches or more serious injuries, according to the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons.

Snow shoveling is a “frequent source of falls, muscle strains and, at occasion, cardiac events,’’ Dr. Stuart Hirsch, of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons, told Reuters Health.

“The most important muscle involved in shoveling snow is our heart,’’ he said, describing the activity as “combined aerobics and weightlifting.”

To avoid snow shoveling-related injuries and cardiac events, the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons recommends the following:

— Shovel early and shovel often.

— Push the snow instead of lifting it.

— Use a shovel that feels comfortable for your height and strength.

— Pace yourself: take frequent breaks and replenish fluids to prevent dehydration.

— Check with your doctor. Individuals with a medical condition or who exercise infrequently should consult their physician before shoveling.

In addition, some people put themselves at extreme risk by attempting to remove snow from their roof, according to the American Society of Safety Engineers (ASSE).

“We strongly discourage anyone without the proper and necessary fall protection equipment to clear snow off roofs,” ASSE President Samuel Gualardo said in a statement.

“This is not something that the average person without special equipment and experience should be doing,’’ Hirsch agreed. “This is a job for professionals.” 
(Reuters Health)

A greener way to do the shopping

In a bid to stem the tide of increasing pollution, a United Kingdom innovator has designed a new environment friendly cargo bike which can be used for regular shopping.

The cargo bike has been designed to appeal to those who appreciate the health and cost saving benefits that cycling offers. Its design allows a special sub-frame and cargo container to be fitted between the wheels of a standard adult bicycle. They can be secured in place by detaching the rear wheel of the bicycle and bolting the frame to a new hub and to the saddle post.

No cutting or welding is required and the extended cables, chains and housings needed are all included in the kit and function with the original backwheel, gears and chain. A roomy polyethylene body shell slots into the sub-frame and the job is complete and the bike becomes a long-wheelbase child carrier or freight container, according to a report in British Commercial News.
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SPIRITUAL NUGGETS

On the rising of the ego everything rises

with its subsidence all subside

The ego is therefore all,

Tracking it is the way to victory over everything.

*****

The 'I' does not rise in the real state,

Search for the source of 'I' dissolves it,

How else can one attain the supreme state of one's own self?

*****

Discover the real source of the ego, by exploring within, with keen intellect, by regulating breath, speech and mind

As one would do to recover a thing which has fallen into a deep well.

— Sri Ramana Maharishi, Sat-Darshanam (Forty verses on Reality), 25-28

*****

Lord, I am in much perplexity

How can I please Thee?

Nothing exists that I could bring Thee

As an offering.

How could I bring anything before Thee

When Thou art already existent everywhere?

If I ring the temple-bell to summon Thee,

It will be an affront.

Thou art all that truly exists in the idol,

Thou pervades the flowers offered before it.

How can I offer the Lord to the Lord?

To bring Thee food would be an insult.

How can I offer food.

To Him who feeds the universe?

All light derives from Thy brilliance,

Sun, moon and stars proceed from Thee;

To wave a light before Thee

Would be to offer a deep darkness.

Thou art taintless Narayana.

How can I apply sandal-paste to Thy body

When Thou hast neither arms

Nor chest nor neck nor forehead?

— Swami Ramatirtha's invocatory poem, trans. A.J. Alston
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