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Fifty Fifty
Voters, like politicians, are also wise
If the Election Commission, which has been a very strong and independent body, succumbs to this unusual political pressure, it will indeed be a tragedy and one which the voter must rally against.
Kishwar Desai
Psephology, especially on television, is not new to India. In fact, when I had just joined television more than two decades ago, some of the most exciting moments were spent at NTDV, working on the election programmes. At that time the legendary (and very charismatic) Dr Prannoy Roy led the team, talking about the ‘mood of the nation’. Of course many of the faces we now see on television speaking ever so knowledgeably about elections were young enthusiasts of this new discipline — learning from Dr Roy — and his very competent and talented wife, Radhika Roy, who was also the producer of the election specials. Between them the Roys understood how to make the election process and the results (which was then just an esoteric and rather boring exercise of casting and counting votes) exciting on television. The counting at the time was done manually in centres spread all over the country, and so the election programmes took much longer than they do today with electronic voting machines. The sole objective of the entire production team was how to make a long drawn out process interesting. This was before the explosion of multiple television channels —and yes, dear readers, they were making the shows for Doordarshan. Luckily, of course, other television channels abroad, such as the BBC, already had given us good templates to follow, and the programmes became quicker, slicker more engrossing. Mushrooming television channels in the last decade has also meant many more commentators and analysts with different styles of presentation, in different languages. As the science of psephology has grown so has the methodology through which pre-poll sample surveys are now conducted to test the way the people are likely to vote. In the UK, too, newspapers, both from the left and the right wing, conduct opinion polls almost on a weekly basis, and prior to elections many more opinion polls are conducted by television channels as well. Even though the opinion polls, recently, have been very unfavourable to the ruling coalition in the UK, never once has anyone raised an objection or said the polls should be banned. They have used the opinion polls to do, if possible, some course correction. Similarly till last week in the New York mayoral elections, almost all the pre-poll surveys showed that the Democrat contender Bill de Blasio would win by almost a 40 per cent margin. Yet no one from the other side condemned the surveys or threw into doubt their veracity. These are all signs of mature democracies where politicians realise that, like them, the voters are also wise and unlikely to be swayed in a particular direction just on the basis of a poll. If that were the case, then in 2004, when all polls were showing a win for BJP, the Congress ought to have lost. So why did so many Congresswalas, their UPA allies and future allies such as the JD (U), suddenly get into a tizzy over pre-poll surveys? Why did they discover, overnight (after all these years) that the survey methodology is rubbish and that often psephologists are biased? It is also amusing to see that many of the politicians who are now complaining about the bias are the same who fall over themselves to come to studio discussions when in the past they have been seen to be on the winning side. The most worrying aspect for many of us is the hidden fascism it reveals at the heart of a party that professes to be liberal. Would they prefer the end of free speech than to listen to any ‘bad news’ — as their agitation erupted only when a television channel showed conclusively that the wind seemed to be blowing in the direction of the BJP prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi? Even if the polls are wrong, why couldn’t they be ignored? This is also despite the fact that far more serious aspects of manipulation seem to exist: such as advertisements given by politicians to prop up certain supportive media groups, or the fact that some politicians might have vested interests or relationships with particular television channels or newspapers. The obvious bias in some newspapers and magazines is also never examined, and yet these are much more likely to have a longer lasting impact on the voter. If the Election Commission, which has till now been a very strong and independent body, succumbs to this unusual and very reprehensible political pressure from the Congress, it will indeed be a tragedy and one which the Indian voter must rally against, and be wary about. To ban pre-election surveys would be a serious blow on our hard-won freedom of speech, and on the freedom of the Press. |