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Focus on growth Roof over the head Mind your tongue |
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Natwar visit revives hopes
Horrendous howlers
Buying US aircraft Final proof: global warming is a man-made disaster Defence notes
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Focus on growth THE annual Economic Survey makes projections that the government often fails to implement. Bringing the fiscal deficit down to 4.4 or 4.3 per cent of the GDP is a promise unkept year after year by an over-spending government. This time the survey, tabled in Parliament on Friday, is particularly harsh on the fiscal mess — both at the Centre and in the states — and proposes cost-cutting through tax and expenditure reforms. The vested interests may try to scuttle these reforms, if not pushed hard enough. The GDP growth at 6.9 per cent and inflation at 6.4 per cent are possible if the government does not succumb to Leftist populism. Agriculture, employment and infrastructure get special attention, which is understandable. A notable aspect of this survey is the meagre growth prediction in agriculture: just 1.1 per cent. If effective action follows on survey promises, the citizens can expect a little more friendly administration with simpler procedures and a less cumbersome tax system. The survey calls for “an impersonal and hassle-free regime with a low compliance cost for honest tax payers and high risks for the evaders”. The tax burden may not increase as the survey says higher tax revenue has to be realised, not through increasing rates, but through innovative changes in policies, procedures, laws and the dispute settlement mechanism. The VAT too will be effective from April 1. How seriously the government takes the Kelkar report will be clear only on Monday when the regular Budget is presented. There is bad news for the Leftists: the survey pleads for opening more sectors, including retail, to foreign direct investment (FDI). Encouraged by the successful taming of the Leftist bull on FDI in telecom, the government plans to reform labour laws, which means arming the employers with the hire-and-fire power. Last year’s survey too had promised this, but the government could not gather courage to implement it. Business start-ups may in future need fewer clearances and the entry/exit barriers may be eased in the textile sector. All this makes sense, but the ruling UPA alliance will have to push its agenda regardless of the noises the Leftists usually make. |
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Roof over the head THE acute housing shortage in India can ease to some extent, now that the government has allowed 100 per cent foreign direct investment in the construction industry through the automatic route. The country requires $25 billion over the next five years for house building and this kind of money can come in only if favourable terms are offered to foreign investors. That was not the case so far. FDI was allowed but it had to be cleared on a case-by-case basis by the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB). The way things move in government offices, this used to take a long time. Secondly, FDI was permissible only in the case of a minimum area of 100 acres and 2,000 dwelling units. That meant that only investors who wanted to set up entire townships cared to come in. No wonder, only nine FDI proposals were approved in four years. With the relaxation of the size condition to 25 acres, that too through the automatic route, a quantum jump in investment can be foreseen. There can be many additional benefits besides the easy availability of houses at competitive rates. The increase in construction activity will give a boost to the overall economy. High-tech construction technology will come in and industries like steel, bricks and cement will get revived. Most important, there will be considerable employment generation. Not only townships but also commercial premises, hotels, resorts, hospitals, educational institutions, recreational facilities and city and regional level infrastructure may also be developed. To make sure that there is no speculation by foreign investors, the sale of undeveloped land has been prohibited. However, the government should see to it that the foreign money does not remain confined to urban centres and it goes to semi-urban and rural areas also. There is also need to ensure that local investors are not elbowed out by moneybags from abroad. |
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Mind your tongue THE Supreme Court ruling that an employee can be removed from service for using foul words against his superiors adds a whole new dimension to the term “language skills”. The employers, in this case, have had to wait truly until judgment come because a succession of lower courts had held that the dismissal would be disproportionate to the employee’s misconduct, specifically, abusing his boss. Thankfully, the Left as also the corporate class is preoccupied with the Budget, otherwise this would have been seized upon as an issue to debate the pros and cons of labour reforms that have been hinted at in the just-released Economic Survey. There is no dearth of philosophical and psychological treatises on the uses of abuse. Psychologists have observed, that an abusive outburst forestalls physical aggressiveness and that, insofar as it helps people under stress to let off steam, it might even be healthy. However, it is now clear that no subordinate can fall back on this rationalisation if he wants to keep his job. Such insights are only of academic interest after the court’s order. The challenge in the new corporate culture, where “associates” and “consultants” have replaced conventional “employees”, would be in defining “subordinate” and “superior”. Even with that done, what remains unresolved is the language of abuse, which is a complex issue in a country with so many tongues. Praise in one language can translate into a foul epithet in another. Context, culture, situation are all implicated in the use of a word being interpreted as abuse. Then there is the problem of terminological inexactitude compounded by the choice of expression. For example, to call one’s boss “gutless” is certainly offensive and probably constitutes abuse. Would drawing attention to his attribute of “acute deficiency of intestinal fortitude” pass the test? Perhaps, it is best that the limits of language are not tested. |
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Make the most of yourself, for that is all there is of you. — Ralph Waldo Emerson |
Natwar visit revives hopes
IT is still a moment to pause and think. Atmospherics have suddenly improved after Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh's Islamabad visit. But the composite dialogue, visualised by the January 6, 2004, agreement between Pakistan President and an Indian Prime Minister that got off to a bumpy start and collapsed after the first round, promises a revival. Even a second try, after Messrs Manmohan Singh and Pervez Musharraf agreed in September last year resulted fruitlessly. The instant euphoria can be dangerous; issues need to be examined critically and the purposes of the two have to be kept in view. Latest Indo-Pakistan political level talks, first in many years, have clinched one significant confidence building measure: Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service and somewhat more than "in theory" rail link between Rajasthan and Sindh. It may also unlock several consequential CBMs. The progress in the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project creates some more optimism, though it is a one-off project and is not linked to MFN status or return transit rights. Meantime, a supposedly minor dispute, Baglihar Dam, suddenly assumed portentous proportions; Pakistan has asked for the World Bank to appoint an arbitrator under the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960. That caused irritation and annoyance to the Indian government that is dead set against any third party involvement in Indo-Pakistan affairs. What the WB can or cannot do is not immediately relevant; the argumentation can go on indefinitely. It is not the best way to resolve this issue; some more talks between the parties might have been better. Anyhow, the overall situation needs to be seen for what it is. For all practical purposes, the dialogue was dead. True its last rites have not been completed. But the new optimism that had lasted for much of 2004 was also ebbing away. It must be, however, noted that the Indian government refuses to see the dialogue dying. It feels if two rounds have not succeeded, other rounds must somehow be arranged. Natwar Singh's visit seems to have revived hope in Pakistan — which is where it was needed. Anyhow there is no option for the two governments but to go on talking. Over the years the civil societies of the two countries have more or less created large peace constituencies in both countries. They should not be ignored. These peace constituencies were certainly disappointed. Another incident of the kind that happened in Delhi on December 13, 2001, can again revive the chauvinistic propaganda on both sides. Even without an outrage, absence of dialogue and the two bureaucracies' habitual daily tit-for-tat comments can come in handy to those who profit from tensions, war preparations and hate the talk of a people-to-people reconciliation and Indo-Pakistan cooperation. Peace and friendship constituencies on either side cannot subsist on thin air or go on yearning year after year while the two governments stolidly stick to old stances; CBMs are good; they are useful. But they leave out quite a few poisonous disputes. More progress is needed to avoid setbacks. Two things can be said about Indo-Pakistan relations: It is a love-hate kind. They can either go on improving steadily or they will begin to deteriorate rapidly. Both governments are also susceptible to this dynamic. Can it be said that Natwar Singh's Islamabad visit has ended the total deadlock there was? Earlier, it was fondly hoped that Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers will meet on the margins of SAARC Summit in Dhaka. But Summit did not take place. With the success of FMs' meeting, it should not be too difficult to schedule a substantive summit. The two countries should not remain the unwilling victims of the snares of those who politically profit from military tensions, confrontations and last-minute war preparations. There is a fear that Indo-Pak relations, unless there is a special intervention from top political leadership of India — Gen. Musharraf or Shaukat Aziz may be in no position to attempt it to stop the backward slide for domestic reasons — the relationship will, one way or another, again deteriorate. Vibes from both bureaucracies are never good. The point is not to allow a going back to the post-Agra Summit situation. Question of ultimate purpose is all important if this is not to be a flash in the pan. A consensus has emerged: there should be no war between the nuclear-capable neighbours. Or else, a nuclear exchange is likely to be witnessed. Much of South Asia can be ecologically damaged. But that is not all. Such a war surely involves mindboggling casualties, of course. But to the two ruling establishments that is somehow not as threatening as it is to the richer parts of the world that value their citizens' lives more highly. But whatever heights their development may have touched will be set back a good quarter to a third of a century as a minimum. It is all so tiresome. Scribes will again begin with war's horrors. Other unattached politicians will hold forth on virtues of the dialogue; most will hold it unavoidable. All this happened in 2002; foreign friends of both sides are sure to pitch in with informal facilitation. In an excess of optimism, one expects the two sides to do what they did throughout 2002 and after the de-deployment. A new series of dialogues will start that are, on present showing, unlikely to succeed. The failure will inaugurate a year or so of confrontation to be followed by going through the motions of a dialogue yet again, knowing it will not succeed. It is farcical. Why go on repeating the cycle that has been seen since the 2002 confrontation. The clear lesson to emerge from that confrontation was that the two sides dare not go to war — for many reasons. If so, what is the wisdom in not making a grand success of the dialogue? Why not try to make lasting peace through rapprochement, cooperation and
friendship? |
Horrendous howlers Correcting answer-sheets of the college students, otherwise a cumbersome and tiring routine exercise for any teacher, can be a hilarious experience also at times. Not only does it expose the general I.Q. level of our "lost generation", it is also a reflection of the teaching standards and perhaps methodology of "us", the "prodigal guiding spirits" of the "hopes" of our nation. Come exams and the otherwise "fertile" imagination of our dear students goes berserk, vertically and horizontally. On one such marking "spree" in the college, while all of us were sitting in the staff-room, looking quite crestfallen under the weight of bundles, some such horrendous but hilarious howlers gripped our attention that certainly lifted the veil of boredom and "enlivened" the atmosphere. Alfred Tennyson's famous Lady of the Shallot had become the name of an island and bias (prejudice) was interpreted to be the name of a river in Punjab, (meaning Beas). "Hoarse" meant an animal of "long race" whereas teacher was seen as "tea ko charne wala". "Adhyapak was referred to as "Adha-paka" while Death was defined to be a great "traveller" instead of "leveller". The legendary Shakespeare became "Sheikh-Peer" and and also 'Sex-Peer' for some and the poor pilgrim was reduced to a mere "Panchnama". However, it was the translation that evoked much laughter with its literal connotations and interpretations. It was even more than a lesson in transliteration. "Rabindra Nath Tagore loved his mother tongue" was translated as “Rabindra Nath Tagore nu apni Maan di jibh badi pyari si”. “Desh wich anni chhayi hoi hai” was translated into English as "our country is ruled by a blind woman". "Films exercise an influence on our youth" was seen as "film ek kasrat hain." The most comic came in this form: "Woh aik garib Brahmin tha" was translated as "He was a poor Sharma!" While completing the sentence. "Make hay while...." the student stumbled upon to ...(I lay the bricks). Needless to say, there were so many more of such howlers that could certainly generate laughter but at the same time, we had our heads down with shame at the ever-deteriorating educational standards of the non-professional colleges where students came just for a "time-pass" and our own "inability to stem or check the "rot". Coming back to the comic relief, my mind went back by a decade or so to an interactive session of our trainee students with a journalist (I forget the name) where he was talking about the role of a sub-editor in a newspaper set-up. Talking about the "copy" and the significance of a catchy, crisp headline, he gave an example that sets me laughing even now and which I would like to share with my readers. The story was about the death of an M.P. and the trainee, after much thought, had come up with the headline," From Lok-Sabha to Parlok-Sabha". Of course, the headline was "killed" finally but not before it had served its purpose. Comparing the two situations, I sat wondering if it was a fall from "creativity" to
"ignorance".
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Buying US aircraft Till a few years ago it was unimaginable that India could go in for such a large arms purchase, offering to pay cash. Our foreign exchange balance position never allowed it. Now it does. The bidders are likely to be Russia, Sweden, the UK — German European consortium, France, and the US. In the past India had purchased combat aircraft from Russia, France and the UK and they are all in our current inventories. Till now we have not purchased aircraft from Sweden. The US has supplied only Fairchild packet supply dropping aircraft (partly purchased in 1958-59 and partly gifted in 1963 as part of the US military aid in the aftermath of the Chinese attack on India). A former Air Force Chief has issued a statement highlighting that the US is not a reliable supplier and, therefore, there are risks of interruption in supplies in the case of the US purchase, both in respect of aircraft as well as subsystems, spares and ammunition. On the basis of our historical experience, the former Air Chief is absolutely correct. At the same time it should be recognised that circumstances have changed and any decision on the purchase of aircraft has to be made taking into account the current circumstances. Just as there is a debate in India on the reliability of the US as a supplier in the light of cold war experience, there is a debate in that country also whether it is advisable to sell combat aircraft to India, alienating Pakistan, which is an old cold war ally and even now providing bases for the US forces in the war against terrorism and whose collaboration is absolutely essential to win that war since Pakistan is the epicentre of terrorism and has been the safe haven for the Al-Qaida leadership and the Taliban. In that sense the conclusion of a major aircraft deal between India and the US will indicate a crucial strategic shift and will confirm the US-India strategic partnership that has been much talked about. In fact, this RFI is a test by India to the US. In the recent AERO-EXPO exhibition in Bangalore the US aircraft manufacturers were falling over one another to sell combat aircraft and establish co-production facilities in India. India is emerging as a major arms importer with the ability to pay cash up front. This country can also enter into agreements offering attractive terms in way of cost reduction in the manufacture of subsystems and components. If the US were to show any reluctance in bidding, then India has to be careful in assessing US interest in furthering US-Indian strategic partnership. If the US were to agree to sell the aircraft to India, will India be taking undue risks in purchasing them? Our analysis of risks should take into account the following factors. First, unlike in the cold war era India is no longer considered a friend of their adversary, the Soviet Union, but termed as a natural ally publicly. While there are elements in the State Department and the armed forces which are still conditioned by the cold war alliance with Pakistan, increasingly the US media and Pentagon civilian leadership tend to emphasise the unreliability of Pakistan as an ally in the war against terrorism. Unlike in the cold war period when India sought credits and concessional sales, now India is in a position to pay cash. India's requirements are large and is likely to continue to grow. Further, there are mutual dependencies growing between the US and India. Any punitive action by way of sanctions can result in counter-sanctions in sectors that could hurt the US economy — especially in the IT sector. India can purchase extra stocks of subsystems, spares and ammunition so that it could fight a six-week war without worrying about sanctions. A large scale arms relationship with the US itself will be a warning to Pakistan that it cannot take US support for granted in any confrontation with India. It was such an expectation on the part of the Pakistani leadership that made the wars of 1965 and 1971 inevitable. The US even-handedness in the Kargil war left General Musharraf with no choice but to agree to withdraw his forces from the Kargil heights, apart from the heavy defeat he suffered at the hands of the Indian Army. Commercial and technological links with the US and Western European manufacturers are part of a strategy for India acquiring a share of the pie of the world armaments market in future. Unfortunately, in India a comprehensive strategy for equipping the Indian armed forces in future with new sophisticated systems of the 21st century has not been thought through. India needs to develop a strategy in regard to its future armaments. Up to 1965 India was wholly dependent on equipment from Britain and France. Thereafter because the West refused India armaments and this country did not have hard currency resources, Delhi became increasingly reliant on the Soviet Union for its equipment. Now we have a mix, with Russia being a preponderant source and Britain, France and Sweden being subsidiary sources. It is not going to be easy for India to be self-sufficient in weapon production for several decades to come and India will need to import a major portion of its weapon requirements. This needs long-term planning and strategy to diversify the sources of equipment and achieve inter-equipment operability for future integrated defence operations. This is the kind of subject which our National Security Council is meant to address, but does not. The purchase of aircraft and other systems from the US needs to be thought through in a cold-blooded analysis and should not be considered in a knee-jerk reaction based on history. Above all, this country needs to develop long-term strategic thinking on foreign and defence policies based on a long-term assessment of the international strategic environment as it is likely to develop over the next 10, 15 or 20 years. Our problem is our politicians cannot think beyond the next election and they are unwilling to create-supra party institutions and mechanisms which will do the task.
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Final proof: global warming is a man-made disaster Scientists have found the first unequivocal link between man-made greenhouse gases and a dramatic heating of the earth’s oceans. The researchers — many funded by the US government — have seen what they describe as a “stunning” correlation between a rise in ocean temperature over the past 40 years and pollution of the atmosphere. The study destroys a central argument of global warming sceptics within the Bush administration — that climate change could be a natural phenomenon. It should convince George Bush to drop his objections to the Kyoto treaty on climate change, the scientists say. Tim Barnett, a marine physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and a leading member of the team, said: “We’ve got a serious problem. The debate is no longer. ‘Is there a global warming signal?’ The debate now is what are we going to do about it?” The findings are crucial because much of the evidence of a warmer world has until now been from air temperatures, but it is the oceans that are the driving force behind the Earth’s climate. Dr Barnett said: “Over the past 40 years there has been considerable warming of the planetary system and approximately 90 per cent of that warming has gone directly into the oceans.” He told the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington: “We defined a ‘fingerprint’ of oceans warmed differently at different depths and constitutes a fingerprint which you can look for. We had several computer simulations, for instance one for natural variability: could the climate system just do this on its own? The answer was no. “We looked at the possibility that solar changes or volcanic effects could have caused the warming — not a chance. What just absolutely nailed it was greenhouse warming.” America produces a quarter of the world’s greenhouse gases, yet under President Bush it is one of the few developed nations not to have signed the Kyoto treaty to limit emissions. The President’s advisers have argued that the science of global warming is full of uncertainties and change might be a natural phenomenon. Dr Barnett said that position was untenable because it was now clear from the latest study, which is yet to be published, that man-made greenhouse gases had caused vast amounts of heat to be soaked up by the oceans. “It’s a good time for nations that are not part of Kyoto to re-evaluate their positions and see if it would be to their advantage to join,” he said. The study involved scientists from the US Department of Energy, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as the Met Office’s Hadley Centre. They analysed more than 7 million recordings of ocean temperature from around the world, along with about 2 million readings of sea salinity, and compared the rise in temperatures at different depths to predictions made by two computer simulations of global warming. “Two models, one from here and one from England, got the observed warming almost exactly. In fact we were stunned by the degree of similarity,” Dr Barnett said. “The models are right. So when a politician stands up and says: “the uncertainty in all these simulations start to question whether we can believe in these models’, that argument is no longer tenable.” Typical ocean temperatures have increased since 1960 by between 0.5C and 1C, depending largely on depth. Dr Barnett said: “The real key is the amount of energy that has gone into the oceans. If we could mine the energy that has gone in over the past 40 years we could run the state of California for 200,000 years… It’s come from greenhouse warming.” Because the global climate is largely driven by the heat locked up in the oceans, a rise in sea temperatures could have devastating effects for many parts of the world. Ruth Curry, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institutions, said that warming could alter important warm-water currents such as the Gulf Stream, as melting glaciers poured massive volumes of fresh water into the North Atlantic. “These changes are happening and they are expected to amplify. It’s a certainty that these changes will put serious strains on the ecosystems of the planet,” Dr Curry said. — By arrangement with
The Independent, London |
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Defence notes He might be the commander of the country's sea force, but not many know that he has also been a fighter pilot who served with the Indian Air Force during the 1971 war with Pakistan and also won a Vir Chakra for his exploits. This, however, came out when Admiral Arun Prakash, Chief of Naval Staff, threw open the gates of the Navy House earlier this month for the present and past officers of the IAF's No 20 Squadron for a unique reunion. Admiral Arun Prakash was a member of this squadron during the 1971 war. The reunion turned nostalgic as pilots recalled the heroes of 1971 including Admiral Arun Prakash, for whom while being a Navy aviator winning the Vir Chakra has been a rare distinction. Also present was Air Chief Marshal SP Tyagi, who only some days before the reunion had invited Admiral Arun Prakash to Pune, where the No 20 Squadron is now based with the latest inventory with the IAF the Su-30 MKIs. In fact, Air Chief Marshal Tygai invited Admiral Arun Prakash for a sortie on one of the Su-30s. Incidentally the reunion for Admiral Arun Prakash was more nostalgic as he, while as a young Flight Lieutenant with No 20 squadron wrote the war diary for the squadron also. It won Two Mahavir Chakras and five Vir Chakras, including that of the naval chief during the war, an achievement indeed. Award for Indian soldiers Twelve personnel of 15 Assam Regiment deployed in Lebanon have been awarded UNIFIL Force Commanders appreciation card for acts of bravery and dedication to duty. The men have been felicitated for the courage they showed in controlling the situation when peace in the region was broken on the morning of January 9 a hostile episode in Shebaa Farms, located close to Blue Line, the border of Lebanon and Israel. Artillery and mortar shelling and air raids followed the incident. An observer group patrol that had gone to the Bastra farm area for observation from the Lebanese side of Blue Line got trapped in the firing, resulting in the killing of a French officer, Major Jean-Louis Valet, and wounding of his Swedish colleague. The observer group patrol was missing thereafter. 15 Assam Regiment, which is deployed in Lebanon as part of United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL), was then tasked to extricate the patrol to safety. Maj KK Bhatacharya with his Quick Reaction Team moved to the Bastra farm, when the shelling was still in progress. Unmindful of the dangers involved, the officer reached the Bastra farm and extricated the patrol members to safety. Col T Sambarah, then Commanding Officer, also moved with the medical team to ensure timely evacuation of other casualties. Army’s mobile phone service The country's fast growing cellular phone sector is soon to see a new entrant — the Army. The competitors can sit relaxed as this service is just for the Army only. The entire technology has been developed and customised keeping in mind the operational requirements of the armed forces. The Ministry of Defence has also approved the trial run of this ambitious project to set up an exclusive mobile network for the armed forces. The first test run is scheduled at the 16 Corps in the Northern Command. If successful, its operation would be scaled up and the network will be for operational requirements, particularly in the forward posts and other areas near the border, with a backbone connectivity with all command headquarters. The network is expected to be
CDMA-based. |
Love does not delight in evil but rejoices with the truth — Bible Great spirits have always found violent opposition from mediocre minds. The latter cannot understand it when a (person) does not thoughtlessly submit to hereditary prejudices but honestly and courageously uses their intelligence. — Albert Einstein Blessed are they who are persecuted for righteousness’ sake: for theirs is the Kingdom of heaven. — Jesus Christ Monopoly is unlawful in Islam. — Prophet Muhammad How many weep for not having seen God? Very few indeed! Verily, he who seeks Him, who weeps for Him, attains Him. — Sri Ramakrishna God knows all, without being told. — Guru Nanak  |
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India has sent out requests for information (RFI) to various leading aircraft manufacturers in the world as a preliminary step to float tenders to purchase 126 multi-role combat aircraft. This has become necessary as the MiG fleet is ageing fast and the induction of India's Tejas aircraft in numbers is sometime away. The deal is worth 3.5 to 4 billion dollars.