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Saturday,
June 1, 2002, Chandigarh, India  
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WINDOW ON PAKISTAN
Indian N-arsenal dwarfs Pak’s
Exercise restraint, G-8 tells Pak |
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George reaches Singapore
for security meet Singapore, May 31 Top Defence Ministers and officials from 21 countries arrived in Singapore today for an Asian security conference focusing on terrorism.
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WINDOW ON PAKISTAN Is Pakistan ruler Gen Pervez Musharraf as popular as is proved by his referendum victory? Whatever the truth, one thing is crystal clear. He is finding it difficult to carry along with him his entire nation during the current crisis. His popularity graph has been going up and down. People in general celebrated his seizure of power when he overthrew Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's elected government in October, 1999. He got all-out support during the initial days of his drive against corruption, particularly of the political variety. The Press too carried mostly laudatory comments. But his popularity began to decline with the deal to exile Mr Sharif to Saudi Arabia. The basic reason was that he could do little to alleviate the sufferings of the ordinary people. He exposed himself as a ruler busy with safeguarding his personal interests by launching a villification campaign against politicians, the class he feared most. He noticed a serious threat to his position from his colleagues in the Army when he took a U-turn in his Afghan policy, but he neutralised it with the not-so-visible American help. The ruling General's democratic experimentation (the idea of devolution of political power, etc) made him suspect in the eyes of the educated classes. People began to seriously doubt his intentions. Very few believed his declaration that he was there only to cure Pakistan's political, economic and other illnesses. His popularity chart showed a downward movement. Newspapers reported that those who could foresee the consequences of General Musharraf's different moves were greatly upset. His referendum decision only added to their worries. That he won it by securing more than 98 per cent of the votes caste is a different matter. The opinion polls conducted in and around February put his popularity rating at 60 per cent or a little more. According to the widely respected Herald magazine (May, 2002), "... a majority of the Pakistanis appear to have no qualms about the General taking over the Presidency for a five-year term." His referendum tactic (there was no question of his losing this game) dampened the sentiments of the educated classes. However, with the situation taking a turn for the worse at the Indo-Pak border, the General found himself at the centre of attraction once again. Most Pakistanis now thought that he was the right person to anchor the ship of their country in this hour of crisis. Not because of he was an extraordinary leader capable of changing their "qismet". The fresh rise in his popularity was based on the realisation that General Musharraf was considered by the USA and other Western powers as their best bet and hence their assured support for warding off the danger emanating from the military standoff at the border. General Musharraf may lose some ground as a result of his otherwise weak campaign against the Kashmir-centric jehadi outfits (also known as terrorists) owing to tremendous pressure from the world community. But at the end of it all he may emerge as the biggest gainer provided there is no war with India. This is what his Western benefactors, perhaps, visualise. There is a long-term strategy behind their efforts to ensure that no harm is caused to their man in Islamabad----President Pervez Musharraf. In any case, the General had to continue his fight against religious extremism in the interest of his own survival. But he could not gather as much courage earlier as he can today. He can justify any action he takes in the face of the increasing heat from India as well as the international community. Even his sworn enemies in the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (a grouping of all the major political parties) and the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal of religious organisations are veering round to the view that under the circumstances they have to extend their support to the ruler they hate. These organisations boycotted his first all-party conference called on May 22 after the military standoff, but gradually they seem to be moving towards a policy of adjustment. However, the General's political opponents falling in line is a temporary development. They may start baying for his blood afresh once the war clouds disappear from the horizon. They may put the entire blame on him for having created an explosive situation jeopardising the future of their country. That may be one reason why the General is trying to mend fences with his adversaries by making various concessions, including the promise to hold only one post ----that of President or Chief of Army Staff----after the October elections. In any case, his future remains inextricably tied to the US interests in the region.
Militants in Pakistan have roots in military For more than 20 years, the Pakistan Government has used Islamic radicals as an instrument of both domestic and foreign policy. Now, many Pakistani security experts said they doubt the government has the will or the means to neutralise what has become a huge network of violence. In recent days Gen Pervez Musharraf, who is now President, has reportedly resolved to strengthen a 1997 anti-terrorism law to make it easier to prosecute extremist acts by Islamic militants, and he is pushing for changes to allow longer detention of suspects without trial. Left untouched by these proposals and largely taboo in public discussion, though, are the tight and long-standing ties between Kashmiri separatists, radical Islamic groups and Pakistan’s military and intelligence structure. According to Pakistani experts on Islamic militancy and national security, there are as many as 500,000 members of jehadi outfits in Pakistan, including many thousands committed to the cause of forcing India out of the area of Kashmir that it controls. One expert said that as many as 3,000 fighters trained in Pakistan were operating in Indian-controlled territory. In December, Kashmiri militants attacked the Indian Parliament in New Delhi, killing 12 persons and setting the two countries on a course for a crisis that has brought 1 million soldiers to the Kashmir region, Indian threats of a “decisive victory” over its neighbour and provocative Pakistani tests of missiles that brought reproaches not only from India, but also from Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin. The jehadis trace their roots to the Mujahideen, the Islamic fighters who battled the Soviet military occupation of Afghanistan beginning in 1979. Pakistani experts say that the Kashmiri separatists, like the American-and Pakistani-backed Mujahideen, have been assisted by Pakistan’s military spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence. “The terror structure built up in the 1980s is very much intact, and the jehadi groups are functioning the same way they always have, recruiting, training and fund-raising, “said Arif Jamal, a Pakistani author who has spent years studying Islamic militancy. “This government does not have the political will to crack down. The only thing new is that since December, these groups are not visible. They have changed their names, their telephone numbers and addresses, and they have moved out of Islamabad.” Groups like
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Sipah-e-Sahaba reportedly still enjoy strong links to the Pakistani intelligence services, particularly through retired agents and army officers who worked with them both domestically and in Afghanistan. “If the army is with Musharraf, he can neutralise these groups, but it will take a long time, and a terrible amount of violence in Pakistan first,” said a Pakistani with intimate knowledge of the security services. “I still don’t see the army taking these groups on, though. Jehad has been part of the defence structure of this country for 20 years. How do you get rid of 500,000 people?” |
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Indian N-arsenal dwarfs Pak’s Washington, May 31 Although both sides have declined to give details of the size or capability of their arsenals since shocking the world with rival nuclear weapons tests in 1998, a survey by Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems has estimated their destructive potential. India may be able to deploy a 20 kilotonne device from a MiG, Jaguar or Mirage aircraft, and could be able to deliver a bomb of a similar size on Prithvi, Dhanush and Agni ballistic missiles, the article said. “It is estimated that India probably has between 50 and 150 nuclear warheads available,” the survey, released by the London-based group here yesterday, said. “Analysis from some sources suggests that there is sufficient weapons grade uranium and plutonium available to India to build more warheads.” Pakistan’s programme is less advanced, but it probably has between 25 and 50 nuclear warheads available, the report said. “Pakistan’s planned yield for its larger nuclear weapons design was 20 to 25 kilotonnes providing a warhead that would probably be fitted to Shaheen and Ghauri ballistic missiles. AFP SINGAPORE: U.S. Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said on Friday that war between India and Pakistan would be devastating and also set back much improved relations between Washington and the south Asian foes. “It would be tragic to see both of these positive opportunities destroyed by a war that would be devastating for everybody,’’ he told a news conference here where he is attending a regional security conference. The USA, Britain and other nations are working feverishly to ease tension between the nuclear-armed neighbours and Mr Wolfowitz will meet India’s Defence Minister, George Fernandes, later today. US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage are also due to fly to South Asia next week to try to cool the situation.
Reuters |
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Exercise restraint, G-8 tells Pak Ottawa, May 31 In a statement released by the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs, the G-8 ministers also called on both Pakistan and India to work with the international community to find “a diplomatic solution to the current crisis.” “We call on Pakistan, in accordance with its commitment, to take concrete actions immediately to end infiltrations across the Line of Control, and to stop terrorist groups operating from territory under its control,” said the statement. “Pakistan should show to international community, including India that it has taken visible action in this regard”, the visiting Japanese Senior Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Seiken Sugiura told reporters at New Delhi. Sugiura said “since Pakistan conducted missile tests, there are growing concern from Japanese people that a conflict between the two countries may develop into a nuclear warfare”. US Secretary of State Collen Powell has said Washington had received assurances from Musharraf that infiltration would end. “But unfortunately we can still see evidence that it was continuing.” He said Musharraf had now offered “more positive” assurances. “We hope he is now giving the necessary orders and taking all the necessary actions to stop the infiltration.”
Agencies |
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George reaches Singapore
for security meet Singapore, May 31 Organised by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, the agenda for the June 1-2 event also included China’s military and security policies, the US strategy in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe’s role in Asian security. India’s Defence Minister George Fernandes, who had earlier cancelled his trip to the city-state because of escalating tensions with Pakistan, was able to make it.
DPA |
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