P E R S P E C T I V E

MaharashtrA politics
It’s tough, can Fadnavis deliver?
After its Maharashtra win, the BJP strategy is to wrest control of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corpn, which, with a budget of Rs 31,000 cr, sustains the Shiv Sena. If the weakened Sena doesn’t change tact, it may be on its way out. But it isn’t any easier for the BJP caught between the NCP and Shiv Sena.
By Shiv Kumar
It is not for nothing that Uddhav Thackeray has swallowed his pride in the face of constant humiliation heaped on him by the BJP. Fifteen years out of power in Maharashtra has made his senior party leaders restless and at least a dozen of his newly elected MLAs are in touch with the BJP.

Pawar play dents Sena
Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar has once again shown that he is the most consummate political operator in Maharashtra. Credited with driving the Shiv Sena and the BJP apart ahead of last month's Assembly elections just before breaking up with the Congress, Pawar is making the most of the hung Assembly that has been thrown up after the polls.

Tightrope walk for BJP
Unlike Modi's regime at the Centre, the BJP government in Maharashtra will have to face the pulls and pressures from Independent legislators and small parties. Already a group of Independent MLAs have come together to form a pressure group to get Chief Minister Fadnavis to induct them into the Cabinet or accommodate them as chairmen of various government corporations. The MLAs have already submitted their demands to Fadnavis.

Rivals fall in line after Modi steps in
Fadnavis has Modi to thank for being catapulted to the top job. Not only did Modi actively project him throughout the election campaign, but also ensured that Fadnavis' rivals in the BJP did not trip him en route to the victory stand.

Hope rises in deprived Vidarbha 
For decades, Vidarbha accused western Maharashtra of walking away with the bulk of the state's development pie. While this region lying in the heart of India hit the headlines for farmers' suicides, western Maharashtra came to be showcased as the state's milk and sugar bowls. Much of the irrigation budget was lavished on western Maharashtra and the growth of the cooperative sector over the past 30 years gave the region's politicians a disproportionate say in Maharashtra's affairs.

MaharashtrA politics
It’s tough, can Fadnavis deliver?
After its Maharashtra win, the BJP strategy is to wrest control of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corpn, which, with a budget of Rs 31,000 cr, sustains the Shiv Sena. If the weakened Sena doesn’t change tact, it may be on its way out. But it isn’t any easier for the BJP caught between the NCP and Shiv Sena.
By Shiv Kumar

A relative greenhorn in politics, Fadnavis will have to prove his negotiation skills. PTI

It is not for nothing that Uddhav Thackeray has swallowed his pride in the face of constant humiliation heaped on him by the BJP. Fifteen years out of power in Maharashtra has made his senior party leaders restless and at least a dozen of his newly elected MLAs are in touch with the BJP.

“If our seat-sharing talks with the Shiv Sena do not work out, we will get some of its MLAs to resign and contest on the BJP ticket,” a BJP leader said earlier this week. Moreover, the Amit Shah-Narendra Modi duo have approved of a plan by state BJP leaders to uproot the Shiv Sena from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) from where it draws much of its influence.

The BJP is expected to withdraw support to the Shiv Sena in the BMC where the two share power. With a hung House on the cards, the state government could easily supersede the BMC and take over its functioning till fresh elections are held. Another option being considered by the state government is the withdrawal of octroi and replacing it with a surcharge on VAT. The BMC earns much of its revenues from octroi and its replacement with the surcharge would make the civic body completely dependent on the state government. With a budget of Rs 31,000 crore, Shiv Sena leaders elected to the BMC have become contractors and small businessmen. BJP leaders believe that most would happily switch sides to safeguard their interests. Even Congress leaders believe that the Shiv Sena would simply disintegrate should it lose the BMC. “Shiv Sena is fast becoming bankrupt. Uddhav Thackeray needs money from the BMC to run his household. Even ‘Saamna’ [the Sena mouthpiece] is losing money and needs regular infusion of funds to stay alive,” Shiv Sainik-turned-Congressman Narayan Rane recently said.

Uddhav Thackeray realises that his party's grip over the BMC is loosening. “We must begin work for winning the BMC elections right away,” he told party workers after the state Assembly polls. Elections to the civic body are due in 2017, but few expect the House to last its full term.

On the ground, the Shiv Sena's cadres are simply left feeling lost at their leader's inability to stand up to the BJP. “Sir, do not compromise on our self-respect. We are prepared to stay in the opposition,” say boards at many party offices.

Party workers feel that an ailing Uddhav has lost touch with them and is now completely under the control of a cabal of party leaders who are merely pursuing their interests. “These things would not have happened had Balasaheb Thackeray been alive,” is the refrain across Shiv Sena offices. As of now, with no charismatic leader in the party, Shiv Sena workers are simply waiting and watching how things unfold. 

Pawar play dents Sena

Sharad Pawar delivered a master stroke by driving the BJP and Shiv Sena apart.

Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar has once again shown that he is the most consummate political operator in Maharashtra. Credited with driving the Shiv Sena and the BJP apart ahead of last month's Assembly elections just before breaking up with the Congress, Pawar is making the most of the hung Assembly that has been thrown up after the polls.

First, he effectively scuttled a political rapprochement between the Sena and the BJP by offering unconditional support to the latter, which has just 121 MLAs in the 288-member Assembly.

The Maratha strongman's calculations about the Sena and the BJP refusing to dismount their respective high horses have almost proved correct, with the former now occupying the opposition benches in the state Assembly. With Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis virtually at the mercy of Pawar and his controversial nephew Ajit, the NCP supremo quietly indicated that his support for the government should not be taken for granted.

“Our support for the government depends on them working for the interests of Maharashtra,” Pawar said days ahead of Fadnavis' confidence vote.

A setback for Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray.

What is left unsaid is that the new Chief Minister will quietly forget about his election promise to investigate the allegations of corruption against Sharad Pawar's nephew and former Deputy Chief

Minister Ajit. Several PIL petitions are before the Bombay High Court and the Pawars are worried that the government may bend backwards to fix them.

NCP leaders have said Fadnavis should not become overconfident after winning the vote of confidence. “The government can be brought down if it fails to pass the money Bill,” an NCP leader said. The party, which controls a large swathe of the state's cooperative sector, is expected to put up a fight should the state or Central government attempt to regulate the sector.

Party leaders said they would oppose any move to liberalise the state's Agriculture Produce Marketing Committees, most of which are controlled by the NCP. The party will also oppose any move by the Narendra Modi government to liberalise free movement of agricultural produce within the country.

Observers say Sharad Pawar will also use his clout to join hands with the BJP to cause further damage to the Congress and the Shiv Sena in the state. Even before the Assembly polls, Ajit Pawar managed to woo several local leaders of the Shiv Sena in different parts of the state. This is expected to intensify and the Pawars will use the breathing space to grab as many local bodies as possible from a weakened Shiv Sena.

Tightrope walk for BJP

Congress MLAs demonstrate against the BJP government at the Vidhan Bhavan in Mumbai. PTI file photo

Unlike Modi's regime at the Centre, the BJP government in Maharashtra will have to face the pulls and pressures from Independent legislators and small parties. Already a group of Independent MLAs have come together to form a pressure group to get Chief Minister Fadnavis to induct them into the Cabinet or accommodate them as chairmen of various government corporations. The MLAs have already submitted their demands to Fadnavis.

So far, the BJP leadership has bought time by promising to consider their demands. But it is clear that Fadnavis will not be able to hold out any longer. According to sources, the RSS has already warned the CM against succumbing to pressures from these players who include mobster Bhai Thakur's Bahujan Vikas Party, Owaisi brothers's MIM and the Peasants and Workers' Party. A bigger worry for the government is managing Pawar's NCP which has promised issue-based support to the new government. “Former Prime Minister Narasimha Rao managed to run a minority government very well. Fadnavis could learn a few lessons from him,” Pawar has been quoted as saying.

Afraid of being reduced to being a government on daily wages, a section of the BJP is keen on stitching up a deal with the Shiv Sena even at this late stage. “The Shiv Sena is a natural ally of the BJP,” says a Mumbai-based party leader who has a good rapport with the regional outfit. BJP leaders feel that the Sena may still come around and accept a few berths in return for joining the government.

The other expensive option is to get MLAs from the Shiv Sena and Congress to resign and contest on BJP ticket. Few MLAs are keen to face fresh elections so soon after sweating to victory. With just 121 members after the death of newly elected MLA in the 288-member House, the BJP's floor managers will need to find allies every time a legislation needs to be passed in the Maharashtra Assembly. The NCP warned that the government can be toppled even before six months of winning a trust vote if it failed to pass the money Bill.

Caught between the Pawars determined to extract their pound of flesh for support and an aggressive Shiv Sena in the opposition, the BJP's claims to being a party with a difference will be sorely tested in Maharashtra.

Rivals fall in line after Modi steps in

Fadnavis has Modi to thank for being catapulted to the top job. Not only did Modi actively project him throughout the election campaign, but also ensured that Fadnavis' rivals in the BJP did not trip him en route to the victory stand.

A relative greenhorn in Maharashtra politics, Fadnavis had to contend with Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari in addition to senior colleagues like Vinod Tawde, Eknath Khadse, Sudhir Mungantiwar and even a novice like Pankaja Munde who threw their hats into the ring.

Gadkari even organised a show of strength by getting MLAs from Vidarbha to root for him. In the end, Fadnavis’ clean image and total lack of business interests, unlike his rivals, helped him prevail. With some support from the RSS, Modi and BJP president Amit Shah got all contenders to fall in line and support the candidature of Fadnavis for the top job.

The new CM's rivals within the party will now wait and watch to see how he manages to run a minority government. The BJP's former ally, the Shiv Sena, is in the opposition and the government is depending on Pawar's NCP for survival. The BJP, which came to power after unleashing a high voltage anti-corruption campaign against Pawar and his nephew Ajit, will now be entirely at their mercy.

Fadnavis and his advisers know that their immediate future depends on getting at least a dozen Shiv Sena and Congress MLAs to resign their seats and contest on BJP ticket. Even as the BJP played hard ball with the Shiv Sena, its managers were in touch with at least eight of its MLAs in order to get them to defect.

Sources say many Shiv Sena MLAs are waiting to see if the two strike a deal. But with the Sena preparing to sit in the opposition, several of its MLAs are now expected to jump ship. The BJP leadership is watching to see how Fadnavis matures as a political player. Should he trip up on his way to ensure a majority for the party in the Maharashtra Assembly, the knives will be out for him. Modi does not take failures kindly and Fadnavis with no political base of his own will easily be replaced if the need arises.

Hope rises in deprived Vidarbha

For decades, Vidarbha accused western Maharashtra of walking away with the bulk of the state's development pie. While this region lying in the heart of India hit the headlines for farmers' suicides, western Maharashtra came to be showcased as the state's milk and sugar bowls. Much of the irrigation budget was lavished on western Maharashtra and the growth of the cooperative sector over the past 30 years gave the region's politicians a disproportionate say in Maharashtra's affairs.

Residents of Vidarbha, who have little in common with the people of western Maharashtra or elsewhere, have been seeking separate statehood. The BJP cashed in on this latent demand to make a big impact in the elections. With the party portraying local boy Fadnavis as Maharashtra's candidate for Chief Minister, the BJP bagged 44 of the 62 seats in the region. Vidarbha now accounts for a quarter of the BJP's 121 seats in the Assembly. Apart from Fadnavis, the number two in his Cabinet, Sudhir Mungantiwar, is also from this region. Modi acknowledged the importance of this region by giving the Transport Ministry to Nitin Gadkari. Hansraj Ahir, Chandrapur MLA (from the region) is part of the Union Cabinet.

Already, efforts are beginning to show. Within days of being sworn in as the Chief Minister, Fadnavis landed at Nagpur where he reviewed the progress of the long-delayed multi-modal international cargo hub and airport at Nagpur (MIHAN) project.

Said to be the biggest infrastructure project in the country, MIHAN has been stuck for want of clearances from the state and Central governments. Fadnavis has said all proposals on MIHAN will be cleared immediately. The government has also announced a tie-up with the Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company Ltd to ensure that power for the project is made available at a reasonable Rs 4.30 per unit.

There are other benefits flowing to Vidarbha as well. Fadnavis is said to be pushing for an Indian Institute of Management to be set up at Nagpur. The town's industrialists at a meeting with the new CM called for the IIM to be set up in Nagpur so that Maharashtra's second capital can be developed as an educational hub to rival Pune.