G R O U N D   Z E R O

Small margins will decide the big fight
Caste considerations apart, voters now want good, clean governance, a responsive leadership, jobs, security and all-round development.
Raj Chengappa

It’s a tough ask and the odds are stacked against Hooda and the Congress in what has turned out to be a multi-cornered contest that has also the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) and its allies putting up candidates for each of the 90 Assembly seats. With just two days left for candidates to make their pitch, the campaign has reached a voluble crescendo with loudspeakers, flags and banners festooning most villages and towns and a rash of rallies and road shows being held.

Hooda banks on performance

With Hooda in the saddle for close to 10 years there is a perceptible anti-incumbency sentiment that he and the Congress have to contend with. Hooda though claims that “My rallies have drawn large crowds. They showed no resentment and applauded my development programmes. I see only a pro-incumbency wave.” But with the Congress being whipped in the Parliament elections, winning only one of the 10 seats, Hooda is on the back foot and hopes that when it comes to Assembly elections, Haryanvis would vote keeping the state’s interest in mind.

The BJP having drawn first blood in the parliamentary polls (it won seven out of the eight Lok Sabha seats it contested and led in 52 of the 90 Assembly segments), the party is pulling out all stops to win a majority in Haryana and in the process make history. In all Assembly polls prior to 2014, the BJP had remained a peripheral player, winning a peak of 16 seats way back in 1987 elections and 11 in 1996. In the recent 2005 and 2009 it was down to two and four seats, respectively. The vote share in state elections has never crossed 10 per cent.

This time though Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who considers himself an old hand in Haryana politics having been the party in-charge in his years of wilderness, and BJP President Amit Shah have gambled big by breaking off its alliance with the HJC and contesting all seats. With Modi addressing over a dozen rallies and Shah touring the state extensively, the BJP is banking on the Prime Minister’s charisma. Also Manohar Lal Khattar, a senior state leader, believes that party has emerged as a viable fresh alternative to both the “stale” Congress and the INLD.

BJP’s gameplan

The BJP has a surfeit of aspirants for the Chief Minister’s post, including Khattar, state party president Ram Bilas Sharma, party spokesperson Captain Abhimanyu Singh and its Kisan Morcha president Om Prakash Dhankar. Not to leave out two ex-Congressmen, Union Minister Rao Inderjit Singh and former Rajya Sabha member Chaudhary Birendra Singh. While there is much grumbling among old hands who resent the BJP opening the doors to turncoats, others argue that the new entrants have enabled the party to garner support from across the spectrum of caste and community groups.

A resurgent Chautala

Then there is a resurgent Om Prakash Chautala of the INLD, a former Chief Minister, who used his time out on bail to criss-cross the state and rally his supporters. Dushyant Chautala, his 26-year-old grandson who became the youngest entrant in the Lok Sabha recently, talks about how “my 80-year-old grandfather put in 80 hours of campaigning” that he claims has turned the battle around and made the INLD a strong contender. The party has fielded both young and women candidates in large numbers to dispel a perception of being a Jat-dominated party and is focusing on jobs, education, women’s security and ending corruption. But it would have a hard time explaining to voters as to how Chautala can lead them while in jail.

With Jats constituting an estimated 25 per cent of the voters, poll pundits are keenly monitoring them to find out which party they would back. Having been used to a dominant role in the state, including having Chief Ministers like Hooda and Chautala, the unity or fragmentation of Jat votes would determine the outcome in a sizeable number of seats.

Increasingly though the Dalits, which constitute 16 per cent of the voters (making the BSP a factor), and Other Backward Classes have become more assertive, forcing parties to broad-base their candidates’ selection. Also in 2009, something like 30 seats or a third of the total was won by margins of less than 5 per cent. This time with a multi-cornered contest on, the margins of victory could be even thinner, making predictions of the outcome difficult.

Yet, whatever be the caste and community factors at play, as the recent Parliamentary elections have shown, voters now want good, clean governance, a responsive leadership, jobs, security and all-round development. These factors are also likely to determine the outcome of the Haryana polls — may the best party win.

raj@tribuneindia.com