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Chances of monsoon revival bleak in North
Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, August 18
With just about a few days left before the southwest monsoon officially withdraws from the Northwest, there does not seem to be much hope of revival of rains over Punjab and Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh — the regions that seem to have borne the brunt of this year’s “deficient” seasonal rains.

With scanty rains (a deficit between 60 and 99 per cent), the two meteorological subdivisions will probably go down as the worst hit of the 36 subdivisions in the country along with Western UP, Marathwada and Telangana.

The IMD recently downgraded the prediction for the overall monsoon rainfall from “below normal” to “deficient” along with the emergence of weak El Nino conditions over what is remaining of the four-month season that ends in September.

Seasonal rains generally start withdrawing between September 1 and 15 over the northwest.

The overall rains in the country as a whole for the second half (August-September) have been predicted at 95 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of 8 per cent. The June to September rainfall across the country on the whole stands downgraded to 87 per cent of the LPA with a model error of 4 per cent. Over the coming few days, the Met office has predicted extremely heavy rains over Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and the northeastern states.

The IMD has ruled out the country-wide possibility of drought but has predicted 76 per cent of the normal rains (with an error margin of 8 per cent) over food bowl of Punjab, Haryana and Western UP — the areas where normal rains are less than the rest of the country.

Though the countrywide deficit has come down to around 17 per cent, the northwest continues to be down by 26 per cent.

Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh are leading the pack with 60 per cent deficit. Punjab follows closely with 59 per cent shortfall. Western UP comes next with 50 per cent followed by eastern UP with 31 per cent shortfall. Largely, the region-wise shortfall is down on the back of the rains over the weekend in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

With 7 and 11 per cent deficit, respectively, the subdivisions to have fared better in the northwest include East and West Rajasthan.

Northwest bears the brunt

Though the countrywide deficit has come down to around 17 per cent, the northwest continues to be down by 26 per cent

Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh lead the pack with 60 per cent deficit

Punjab follows closely with 59 per cent shortfall

Western UP comes next with 50 per cent followed by eastern UP with 31 per cent shortfall