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Will Modi break the mould? With Modi inviting SAARC leaders for his swearing-in, especially Pak PM Nawaz Sharif, the tone has been set for a new world view. The Tribune takes a look at the globe from the eyes of the PM-designate. By Ashok Tuteja
Narendra Modi
has started his inning on a positive note by inviting SAARC leaders for his swearing-in ceremony as he assumes the high office of the Prime Minister. Even as the US and other global powers speculate on the contours of India’s foreign policy under Modi, the message from the 63-year-old leader is clear: His government will accord top priority to engaging with neighbours. The terror attack on the Indian Consulate at Herat in Afghanistan on Friday is a grim reminder of the challenges Narendra Modi faces on the strategic and foreign policy front. With NATO forces set to withdraw from Afghanistan by the year-end, such attacks on Indian assets in the war-ravaged nation are only expected to increase. Modi, known for his administrative acumen, will have to prove whether he has the diplomatic skills too for grappling with such challenges. The India-Pakistan relationship is in disarray ever since Pakistani troops killed an Indian soldier and beheaded another last year. Infiltration and cross-border terrorism also continue unabated. Under the Manmohan Singh government, New Delhi’s response to provocations had been meek. Other than putting the dialogue process on hold, it did little to make Islamabad understand that India’s gestures for friendly relations should not be misconstrued as a sign of weakness. But the election outcome has brought about a dramatic change. Manmohan Singh has been replaced by Modi, a man known for his tough image and a non-nonsense approach. All indications are that he would pursue a more muscular foreign policy towards Pakistan and China. Glimpses of his approach towards India’s two main adversaries were visible during the election campaign. He chided the UPA for playing a perfect host to then Pakistan Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf and offering him “chicken biryani” last year, when he visited Ajmer to offer prayers, weeks after the beheading of an Indian soldier. Modi also warned Beijing to shed its expansionist mindset. Can one forget his recent assertion: “I swear in the name of the soil that I will protect this country”, right in the heart of Arunachal Pradesh, a region claimed by China? But post-elections things could be different. What’s certain is that Russia, Japan and Israel will have a special place.
Pakistan
His sharp criticism of the UPA’s “weak” policy towards Pakistan and statement that he would bring Dawood Ibrahim back to India triggered strong reaction from Islamabad. A tense atmosphere prevails between India and Pakistan with Modi’s election. However, these are just assumptions. Nawaz Sharif’s telephone call to Modi over his victory quashed the negative perception to some extent. Amid hopes of revival of the stalled peace process, there is no doubt that the NDA regime will be unambiguous in telling Pakistan that it must adhere to its commitment to rein in anti-India forces operating from its territory. Terror and talks obviously cannot go together. Pakistan continues to provide safe haven to anti-India elements like JuD chief Hafiz Saeed and Dawood. Even five-and-a-half years after the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack, the trial of the accused in Pakistan is progressing at a snail’s pace. According to former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan G Parthasarthy, there is no point in holding a dialogue if terror continues. He says the Army and intelligence chiefs of the two countries should meet and decide how cross-LoC infiltration and terrorism could be brought to an end. Trade certainly is one area in which India and Pakistan can hope to achieve a breakthrough with Modi at the helm. Sharif is also a strong votary of trade and commercial links. Opening of more trade and transit routes, promotion of cultural links and a relaxed visa regime are some of the steps expected to be taken in the days to come. Delhi also hopes Pakistan will not delay any further the extension of the Non-Discriminatory Market Access (NDMA) status to India. Manmohan Singh’s long-cherished desire of visiting Pakistan remained unfulfilled. Perhaps Modi could put the past behind and undertake a journey to the neighbouring country. However, Parthasarthy cautions: “I would be against any such visit till there are signs that our concerns on terrorism are being addressed,” he says.
China
As the Chief Minister of Gujarat for more than a decade, Modi attracted a huge investment from China. When other world powers abhorred him, China courted him as the Chief Minister of a vibrant Indian state. During his last visit to Beijing, he was received at the Great Hall of People, a rare honour reserved only for Heads of State. But as the Prime Minister, Modi is now expected to steer a course between defending India's security interests and growing business links with the world’s second-largest economy. The PLA pitched tents inside the Indian territory in the Ladakh region last year. The tense border standoff ended after hectic diplomatic parleys, but China had sent out a clear message that under the new Communist leadership, it would attempt to settle its boundary disputes on its own terms. The territorial dispute between the two countries is unresolved even after three decades of talks. Another area of concern is the growing cooperation between China and Pakistan in the nuclear field and projects being undertaken by Beijing in the PoK. China’s “string of pearls” policy to encircle India has given jitters to mandarins at the foreign office. Modi will have to be guarded in his response to China’s designs. On the economic front, China has made rapid strides in the past few years, leaving India way behind. But in the given scenario, China may appear to be less a rival than an opportunity to Modi. His desire to accelerate economic development may push him to attract Chinese investment in infrastructure sectors like rail, road, communication and power stations. Modi is also expected to promote initiatives such as Chinese industrial parks and the much-touted Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar trade corridor. However, he will have to see that China provides India easy access into its market to bring down the astounding trade gap. Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, says Modi needs to take a deep look at the progress of “strategic partnership and cooperation” since 2005. He says since India has been rising, creating niche areas for itself in the Asian landscape, China and India are bound to step on each other's vital areas of importance.
US
Opinion is divided on how a Modi will deal with the world’s only super-power in the backdrop of how Washington treated him until recently. President Obama congratulated Modi on his victory and invited him to Washington but these are gestures on expected lines. While one school of thought is that Modi is not going to ever forget the way the US humiliated him, many argue that given his economic priorities, the US will continue to be an essential partner for India. The two countries are scheduled to soon hold their annual strategic dialogue, which will indicate how the relationship will move. The first meeting between Modi and Obama might take place in September when Modi is expected to travel to New York for the UN General Assembly.
Japan
Modi is among the only three people whom Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe follows on Twitter, the other two being his wife Akei and Japanese journalist and historian Naoki Inose. This shows how high he rates Modi as an administrator. Based on Gujarat’s experience, it would not be wrong to say that Modi also has a special place for Japan in his heart. Foreign policy experts have pointed towards many similarities between Modi and Abe, a great admirer of India. Both are known as decisive leaders. There is every reason to believe that Japan will emerge as India’s main economic partner under Modi’s leadership. Modi has also shown interest in importing bullet train technology from Japan. However, New Delhi is unlikely to get involved in Japan’s disputes with China or do anything that will upset the delicate Sino-Indian relationship.
Bangladesh
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee torpedoed the historic Teesta water-sharing treaty with Bangladesh on the eve of Manmohan Singh’s visit to Dhaka in September 2011. This caused a loss of face for the UPA regime. However, it could do nothing, given the UPA’s dependence on her Trinamool Congress for survival. But Modi will be under no compulsion to surrender to the dictates of Mamata. Of course, he would seek to get her also on board as and when the treaty is signed. The friendly Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh would also expect the ratification of the historic Land Boundary Agreement by India.
Sri
Lanka
Political parties in Tamil Nadu will no longer be able to dictate their Sri Lanka agenda to the Centre any longer because the Modi government is not dependent on any of them. However, that does not mean India will stop nudging the Rajapaksa government to investigate the killings of innocent people in the war against the LTTE and give the Tamils their due in society. The fishermen issue will also get the attention of the Modi government. Russia
Not much change is expected in the time-tested India-Russia relationship under Modi. Ties are expected to only grow further. Notably, the two countries had become strategic partners when Vajpayee was at the helm. Defence and trade ties could be further strengthened. Civil nuclear cooperation could also get a boost. European
union
The European Union (EU) had apparently read the writing on the wall in 2012, much before the elections in India, and lifted the ban on Modi. Many of the EU ambassadors are said to be on friendly terms with Modi and expect that the India-EU Free Trade Agreement could now fructify, given Modi’s keenness to promote trade between the two sides. Israel
There is the prospect that Modi will emerge as the most pro-Israel Prime Minister of India. Most of the trade between the two countries has been confined to military technology and gemstones. Israel has also pumped in billions of dollars in Gujarat. If Gujarat is to be a template, the signs are healthy for Israel. Defence and counter-insurgency cooperation could get a boost.
Modi and the world
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The US has changed tact and invited Modi to Washington.