The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

ARTICLE

Life after Afzal Guru
Time to strengthen intelligence units in states
by R.K. Raghavan

Two judicial hangings of terror convicts, within weeks of each other, are far too many to handle for any nation, especially one that had been globally looked upon derisively as a soft state. The sudden courage and spirit displayed by a government, which was squarely accused all these days politicising and dithering over needed legitimate decisions, should baffle the uninitiated observers outside the country. To us, familiar with the turns and twists of the Indian scene, the inference, however, is too glaring. Whatever is the motive behind the uncharacteristic alacrity in hanging Ajmal Kasab and Mohamed Afzal Guru, after years of wanton inactivity, the UPA government should be complimented for going through with the logical follow-up to the apex court decision in clinical fashion. More than the decision, its ability to keep such crucial and sensitive moves under the wraps is a tribute to its control over the administrative processes.

What was, however, galling was the refusal to extend the fundamental and civilised courtesy to Afzal's wife and son for one last meeting with the famous prisoner before his life was snuffed out. If the authorities believed that this was an undue concession that would have compromised secrecy and, therefore, security at Tihar Jail, the easy option was to have brought the family by a special aircraft (such as the ones with the BSF which is heavily deployed in the Valley) for this meeting and flown them back to Kashmir just before the hanging. Such a treatment — which would have enhanced our image as a country that respects human values — was no favour at all to a prisoner, who was otherwise treated as of a special category, evidenced from the unpardonable reluctance to dispose of his mercy petition within reasonable time.

Two hangings in quick succession and in utter secrecy are repulsive and do not gel with most of us. Public celebration of the event by a few fundamentalists on the other side of the spectrum was even more nauseating. The whole episode reeked of vengeance and retribution, something that should persuade us to hang our heads in shame.

The million dollar question now is whether there will be a reprisal on the Indian state to protest Afzal's hanging. There was none after Ajmal Kasab was executed. This is no reason why there will be none this time. There is no room for complacency. Kasab was a Pakistani national and his direct participation in the 26/11 savagery was beyond dispute. Afzal was different. An Indian citizen, the evidence against him was circumstantial, and some human rights activists and associates (including SAR Geelani of Delhi University, who was acquitted by the Delhi High Court after the trial court had found him guilty) have gone so far as to claim that he was innocent. This complicates the situation.

The only point is that Afzal owed allegiance to a weakened Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), founded in Pakistan in 2000, which lost a lot of ground after the rise of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and its encouragement by the ISI. The JeM suffered a major split in 2003 following differences between its overall leader Maulana Masood Azhar and its Karachi chief, Abdullah Shah Mazhar. It is also a fact at the same time that some of those who abandoned the JeM following the split moved over to militant outfits sympathetic to Al-Qaeda.

The LeT, responsible for the 26/11 attack on Mumbai and reportedly with some links with Al-Qaeda, has its significant indirect presence in India in the form of cadres of the banned Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and the Indian Mujahideen. It is facile to expect that the latter will remain quiet. Coming as it does against this backdrop, J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah's outburst against New Delhi for the Afzal execution is absolutely provocative. For quite some time he had been known to be opposed to the hanging. His predicament is quite understandable. His stand is clearly one of self-preservation, aimed at the stability of his otherwise fragile administration, and we cannot fault him for the posture he has taken. He has to necessarily convey his dissent with the Centre in public, and this he has done with an eloquence that should egg on the militants who are resolved to fight the Centre at all costs. A few columnists in the print media have also poured venom on New Delhi. They have managed to muddy the waters by circulating the impression that the evidence against Afzal was dicey and that he had been grievously wronged. It is naïve to believe that this orchestrated tirade against New Delhi is of no consequence. It should actually serve to harden militant thinking further.

I will, therefore, be totally surprised if there were no violent actions in the near future, not only in the Valley but in the heart of the country as well. Active support from across the border is a distinct possibility. It is anybody's guess as to what form that would take.

By all accounts our security forces are reasonably well prepared to meet any contingency. There may not be any major attacks on them or on civilian population. Sabotage of vital installations is, however, a distinct possibility. Airports and aircraft are seductive targets. The ease with which IC814 was hijacked on the eve of Christmas in 1999 with a humiliating sequel in which we had to release three of our prisoners serving a term in our jail is still green in our memory. The CISF at Indian airports has done a remarkably good job in protecting aviation infrastructure against terrorist adventure. But what about our flights which originate outside the country? There is some cause for worry here.

The Intelligence Bureau (IB) has a reasonable record in the area of fighting terrorism, with some scoops which could prevent major terrorist attacks. Despite certain irritants, such as the Headley episode, our relationship with the FBI/CIA and a host of foreign agencies has also been healthy. This has brought rich dividends. The heightened risks to our national security flowing from the Kasab and Afzal hangings dictate a closer collaboration with foreign intelligence outfits. Any criticism of our government for getting too cozy with them will be unwarranted. Sovereignty niceties should take a back seat, at least temporarily.

What I am most exercised is about the strength and effectiveness of the intelligence machinery in the states. Barring a few — that too on special occasions and for short spells — State Special Branches have been a weak link in the vital chain. They have been unabashedly misused for promoting the interests of ruling parties and Chief Ministers anxious to keep a tab on their Cabinet colleagues. Their professionalism is uniformly poor. The IB can greatly help in restructuring them, especially to equip them better for fulfilling their anti-terrorism role. The two currently enjoy a decent relationship.

What I envisage, however, is a symbiotic union that is bereft of politics. State Special Branches need a permanent cadre of their own, which is recruited on very high standards and their staff conferred attractive incentives, both in terms of salary and perquisites, combined with a fast rate of promotions. Only such a scheme of things will bring in recruits who are not allured by the unmentionable and downright illegal rewards that have become part and parcel of the tenure with the police in the field. The creation of an elite intelligence corps in the states that would complement the IB's resources and skills requires extreme enlightenment of state governments. Looking around, I do not perceive this just now!

The writer is a former Director of the CBI.

MIDDLE

Fashion without passion
by Rajbir Deswal

I won’t talk about style, but stillness. Stillness that restricts motion towards fashion. And is largely dominated by flaunting and flamboyance. But it necessarily talks about fashion without passion.

Let me be clearer. Sometimes people boast of, and brag about something that is in and trendy. This trendy in-thing would make them look updated and up-market, even when their market-value is the lowest. To stay modern in others’ eyes and estimation, one has to have a fad or two, not to really indulge in, but to announce it to the rest of the world.

In literary circles, if you did not attend the Jaipur Literature Fest, then you would be just discounted in your reckoning. Then at least go and attend the one in Chandigarh or even at Kaithal. Or at least keep talking about the relevance, desirability or otherwise of such conglomerations. Or if nothing else is achievable, go on the ‘popular’ side of Sulman Rushdie and curse the Mumbai police for their “inputs.” Talk about Ashis Nandy, Shah Rukh Khan or Kamal Haasan.

I know a certain neo-rich person, who is an impresario and keeps organising and financing concerts, plays, exhibitions, etc, not because he is an aficionado or a connoisseur, but who just wants to project a side of his personality which is appropriately, suitably and aesthetically inclined to finer pursuits of life. Artists, writers, painters and musicians have these people on their hit list of the “venture capitalists”! Good for them.

There are some people who make a guitar hang, having the pride of place, in their drawing rooms, to be followed by those who keep a golf-kit at the pre-entry of their house; both, respectively, knowing no chord to twang, or no ball to lift in the freeway — not to talk of putting it in a hole.

With the filthy-rich people, having a piano in the house was once a must, besides a Belgian chandelier and an Iranian carpet to spread on tiles imported from China. That indulgence in showing off is the mainstay of the affluent goes without saying, underscoring at the same time the down-to-earth approach of other earthy earthlings, of lesser home-grown variety, as against the exotic ones.

The “ag-jaktlee” tribe of the “S“ — adding middle class modern women, who swear by the “Rapid-English-speaking” course is another case in point. Sample this: “Heys wheres yous wastings your times on saas-bahu serials. Whys nots have a glass of beers. I ams to very fonds of thats!”

No offence meant, but women are more prone to falling for fashion without being so passionate about it. “I do not even know how to make tea!”

“I can only make omelets!” and “I haven’t ever put thread in the needle-eye!” is the blabber all loud-mouth women will resort to to prove their being fashionable enough in not associating them to the “lowly household chores”. The hobby pursuing women will often boast of attending their regular painting classes, gardening sessions, social service chapters etc. religiously.

A dry-blanket friend of mine was known to have no musical ear. I visited him one day after his marriage. There was heard soft music when I entered his drawing room. I asked his wife if she liked music. “O’ no, Bhai Sahab, not me much, but your friend is so fond of ghazals that he can’t really live without them!” she informed a shocked me, who was made wiser in not asking her — “since when?”

I came across a genuine person recently, who is just the opposite in character, of the protagonists of this piece. He, while translating “seagul”, rang up the Avian Society in Mumbai to know the bird’s calling in English. Now that is really passion. Without much of flaunt.

OPED Document

Reasons for Punjab’s slow growth

Here is the second and concluding part of excerpts from a chapter by economic journalist Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar in the report “Economic Freedom of the States of India 2012”. Part I appeared on Monday.

Punjab's relative decline can be traced to several factors, of which the most important is a serious fiscal crunch. This in turn is due mainly to the supply of free electricity to farmers. Other reasons include the agricultural plateau reached by the green revolution; the failure to diversify fast enough out of agriculture; the failure to make the educational investments necessary to induce a switch to service industries like computer software; and very high land prices that have discouraged industry.

The fiscal crunch

Punjab used to have large revenue surpluses in its glory days in the 1960s and 1970s. But in recent decades it has persistently run a high fiscal deficit, which is currently the highest among all major states (budgeted at 3.8% of GDP for 2011-12). This high figure arises mainly out of huge unwarranted subsidies, the chief culprit being free power to farmers. One consequence is that the government is not even able to pay all salaries on time. This leads to demoralisation and cynicism among staff, who look for avenues to make money illegally.

Like other states, Punjab has enacted a Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, which aims to reduce the state's revenue deficit to zero (that is, borrowing will be used only for capital spending, not current expenditure). [But] the major problem lies in runaway subsidies, above all the supply of free electricity to rural areas.

The ruling coalition of the Shiromani Akali Dal and Bharatiya Janata Party has also resorted to other subsidies to win votes. These include subsidised atta (wheat flour) and dal (lentils and gram), free bicycles to all schoolchildren, and a marriage grant (shagun) to new brides. Punjab is hardly alone in distributing freebies. Other states like Tamil Nadu have given voters colour TVs and laptops. Yet these other states are able to generate a revenue surplus, while Punjab cannot. The main problem is its exceptionally high burden arising from free electricity.

Free rural electricity

Competition between political parties for farmers' votes has led over the years to electricity being supplied by the Punjab government to farmers free of charge since 1998. Canal water is also virtually free.... At one time, subsidised electricity was seen as a way of promoting the green revolution, which required assured irrigation. But, as Ashok Gulati [Chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices] says in a separate chapter in this report, "since demand for such subsidised inputs greatly exceeds the supply, the quantity farmers get is rationed.... Paddy in Punjab and Haryana requires roughly 225 cm of irrigation water per crop. But the annual rainfall is only 60 cm. So, farmers have to pump huge amounts of ground water for the thirsty paddy, depleting the water table at an alarming rate."

Apart from this destruction of aquifers, free farm electricity has now become the biggest cause of the state's fiscal troubles. S.S. Johl, former head of Punjab Agricultural University, says that the state's total debt is Rs78,000 crore ($15.6 billion) and contingent liabilities through guarantees are another Rs 40,000 crore ($8 billion). He estimates that 90 per cent of this debt burden has arisen from the enormous cumulative impact of electricity subsidies, currently running at over Rs 5,000 crore per year.

Johl says that the so-called subsidy to farmers is actually passed on to consumers, and so does not benefit farmers at all. The Commission on Agricultural Costs and Prices determines the minimum support price for different crops based on actual input costs. The subsidy on rural electricity leads to a correspondingly lower support price. This benefits consumers of grain, not farmers. Yet Punjab's political parties find it politically impossible to charge farmers.

Some farmers have huge holdings and up to 150 tubewells each, says Johl, so the rich are benefiting disproportionately from the subsidy.

Meanwhile, fiscal strain means the state government has been unable to build any new power plants for several years... Thus, the political decision to subsidise farm electricity has become an unwitting tax on industry and has hobbled the state's
development.

The green revolution tapers off

Punjab pioneered the green revolution in India through the use of high-yielding seeds, accompanied by high doses of fertiliser and water. Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) modified high-yielding seeds from Mexico and other sources to suit Punjab's agro-climatic conditions. However, by the 1990s, gains from the new dwarf varieties of rice and wheat introduced in the 1960s had mostly worn off. PAU, which had developed the first seeds for the green revolution, has failed to keep up the good work by creating ever-better varieties. Its researchers are demoralised by the state's priorities of wooing farmers and other with massive subsidies, leaving the state government with insufficient money to pay salaries on time, or to fill vacant posts. S.S. Johl says that politicians criticise PAU for not producing enough new high-yielding varieties... but how can demoralised researchers without salaries be expected to produce research breakthroughs? Many good scientists have left for greener pastures.

Private sector agricultural research cannot make good this gap in full. Private seed companies can and have produced excellent new varieties of hybrid maize and genetically modified cotton, because for such crops farmers have to buy seeds afresh from the companies every year and the companies can thus recover their research costs with a profit. But in the case of self-pollinating crops like wheat and rice, farmers can simply save grains from the last harvest and use these as seeds for the next season, without buying seeds afresh from companies. Companies will not do any research for such crops because they have no way of recovering their research costs. For such crops, public sector research is inescapable. PAU used to be at the very fore of R&D in self-pollinating crops like rice and wheat and its decline has therefore affected the growth of agricultural productivity in the state.

Salt deposition on soil

Fast-expanding tubewell irrigation was initially the driving force of agricultural growth, but once 95 per cent of the land had come under irrigation, this ceased to be a source of dynamism. Excessive tubewell pumping, perversely encouraged by the supply of free electricity to farmers, has in some districts exhausted sweet ground water but farmers started pumping the brackish water underneath. This led to salt deposition on the soil, rendering some areas infertile.

The supply of virtually free canal water has deprived the state of revenue to maintain canals and ensure proper drainage.

The state attempted after the 1980s to diversify into fruit and vegetables. But the shift was never fast enough and constant power cuts in rural areas meant that good cold chains-essential for preserving fruit and vegetables-were not possible.

Failures in agricultural marketing

Punjab, like most other Indian states, has an Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act that makes it mandatory for farmers to sell most agricultural produce only in government-organised markets called mandis. The Act was supposed to protect farmers from exploitation by private traders offering throwaway prices. The government itself procured major crops like wheat and paddy at specified minimum support prices. However, there is in practice no government procurement of other crops at specified support prices. In the case of these other crops, the mandis have obtained a trade monopoly that is mercilessly exploited by a limited group of traders with political connections. Former Chief Secretary S.C. Aggarwal says that many bureaucrats have attempted to end the monopoly of mandis but met with severe political resistance-traders are prominent politicians and are also traditional financiers of leading political parties. The state government extracts almost 14.5 per cent in various levies from the mandis and this is a major source of revenue.

New Delhi has asked all states to try and make payments directly to farmers if possible, and this has been adopted by some states, including historically backward ones like Madhya Pradesh. But Punjab has not done so.

Failure to catch the services revolution

When Punjab was among the very forefront of states in the 1970s, it had every opportunity to prepare for a switch out of agriculture into industry and services. It was already among India's foremost states in roads, rural electrification and per capita income, and could have invested in education to produce the skills needed for further economic development.... IITs helped spark the computer software revolution in Bangalore, Mumbai and several other Indian cities. But not in Punjab.

One reason for the state's neglect of higher education and information technology was that its politicians never evolved from a mind-set that emphasised agriculture above all else, and focused on buying the votes of farmers through subsidies rather than diversification out of agriculture. Punjab did indeed compete with other states in trying to attract industry but hardly at all in trying to attract high-tech services. So Punjab was left far behind the states in southern and western India that spearheaded the IT revolution.

The state educational system [also] had insufficient interest in pushing for English language education. Other states saw that good English skills were vital to reap the benefits of globalisation, most obviously in the form of business outsourcing and call centres.

The curse of high land prices

Prosperous rural areas have high land prices and it is natural for Punjab land to be expensive. It is also natural that Punjabis going overseas have for decades sent remittances home and these have typically been used by families to keep buying more land, pushing up prices. However, land prices in Punjab (and indeed in most Indian states) have been artificially inflated by perverse tax and administrative laws.

Unlike other assets, farmland is exempted from capital gains tax and this distortion attracts a flood of money. Moreover, buying land is a hassle-free way of laundering black money. Because of high stamp duty, rural land is typically registered at a tiny fraction of the contract price in order to reduce stamp duty payment. Often half or more is paid in cash under the table and this means that black money can easily be laundered into respectable land. Such money laundering has sent land prices skyrocketing everywhere in India but the rates are highest in areas with flat fertile land, as in Punjab. This is... bad news for industries that need large parcels of land. Other states have plenty of relatively cheap... barren land that can be offered to industries.... But Punjab has very little such land and so is unable to provide land cheaply for industry.

Lack of trade with Pakistan

When the economy was liberalised in 1991, the coastal states boomed, with flourishing exports and imports. Punjab was unable to register similar gains because it was far away from any port.... Trade between India and Pakistan has been blocked or banned since the war of 1965 and existing trade is limited to relatively few items. This has deprived Punjab of the usual gains of international trade.

However, recently Indo-Pak relations have shown signs of improvement, and Pakistan has indicated that it wishes to normalise trade relations. India has welcomed the change. Too much cannot be expected quickly. But it means that Punjab's trade and economic prospects will brighten considerably. Instead of being a deeply land-locked state with poor international trade prospects, Punjab could become the major Indian gateway to Pakistan.